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Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in Germany: DE 2015 Report DE 2015 Report pathways to deep decarbonization in Germany Supported by Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy Published by Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) and Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), The full report is available at deepdecarbonization.org. Copyright © SDSN & IDDRI 2015 Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP), an initiative of the Sustainable Develop- ment Solutions Network (SDSN) and the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), aims to demonstrate how countries can transform their energy systems by 2050 in order to achieve a low-carbon economy and significantly reduce the global risk of catastrophic climate change. Built upon a rigorous accounting of national circumstances, the DDPP defines transparent pathways supporting the decarbonization of energy systems while respecting the specifics of national political economy and the fulfillment of domestic devel- opment priorities. The project currently comprises 16 Country Research Teams, composed of leading research institutions from countries representing about 70% of global GHG emissions and at very different stages of development. These 16 countries are: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Disclaimer This report was written by a group of independent experts who have not been nominated by their governments. Any views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the views of any government or organization, agency or program of the United Nations. Publishers : Teresa Ribera, Jeffrey Sachs Managing editors : Henri Waisman, Laura Segafredo, Roberta Pierfederici Editing & copy editing : Katharina Hillebrandt, Sascha Samadi, Manfred Fischedick Editorial support : Pierre Barthélemy, Léna Spinazzé Graphic design : Ivan Pharabod, Christian Oury, Eva Polo Campos Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy Sustainable development requires an integrated approach to policy and science because many of the issues it raises cannot be addressed within a single department or using the tools of individual scientific disciplines. This is where the Wuppertal Institute’s research program begins - by taking an interdisciplinary approach and working toward systems understanding. Designing transitions to a sustainable development is the Wuppertal Institute’s stated mission. The Wuppertal Institute has the legal status of a non-profit limited company (gemeinnützige Ge- sellschaft mit beschränkter Haftung, according to German law) and receives basic funding from the Land North Rhine-Westphalia. It is under the direction of the Ministry for Innovation, Science and Research of the Land North Rhine-Westphalia. Third-party funding supports most of the Institute’s budget and projects. Supported by Stiftung Mercator is a private foundation which fosters science and the humanities, education and international understanding. It specifically initiates, develops and funds projects and partner organ- izations in the thematic fields to which it is committed: it wants to strengthen Europe, improve integration through equal educational opportunities for everyone, drive forward the energy transition as a trigger for global climate change mitigation and firmly anchor cultural education in schools. Stiftung Mercator feels a strong sense of loyalty to the Ruhr region, the home of the founding family and the foundation’s headquarters. Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy Katharina Hillebrandt Sascha Samadi Manfred Fischedick Contributing authors: Sascha Eckstein Samuel Höller Tomke Janßen Kristof Kamps Christine Krüger Stefan Lechtenböhmer Jan Nigge Andreas Pastowski Piet Sellke* * DIALOGIK gemeinnützige Gesellschaft für Kommunikations- und Kooperationsforschung mbH September 2015 Acknowledgements The authors of this report would like to thank Stiftung Mercator for financial- ly supporting our work within the DDPP initiative. We are also grateful to the DDPP secretariat at IDDRI, especially Roberta Pierfederici and Henri Waisman, for providing helpful comments on earlier versions of this report. Many thanks to Ivan Pharabod for designing the figures and laying out the report and to Matt Twomey for the editing work. Finally, we would also like to thank the developers of the three scenarios analyzed in this report for providing additional information about their scenarios. Contents pathways to deep decarbonization in Germany Executive summary 3 1. Introduction 7 2. GHG emission reduction and transformation of the energy system in Germany 8 3. Deep decarbonization pathways for Germany – A comparison of three illustrative scenarios 12 3.1. Overview of decarbonization scenarios for Germany 12 3.2. Choosing three illustrative scenarios 13 3.3. Key decarbonization strategies used in the three illustrative scenarios 16 3.4. Analysis and comparison of the three illustrative scenarios 17 4. In-depth analysis of key strategies 30 4.1. Increase in energy efficiency 30 4.2. Increase in electricity generation from renewable energy sources 34 4.3. Electrification of processes and power-to-x 39 5. Additional strategies to achieve deep decarbonization 42 5.1. Energy demand reductions through behavioral changes 42 5.2. Import of low-carbon energy sources 43 5.3. Use of CCS to reduce industrial sector CO2 emissions 45 5.4. Decrease in non-energy-related agricultural GHG emissions 46 6. Co-benefits from a German perspective 48 6.1. Energy security effects 48 6.2. Economic effects 50 6.3. Social effects 53 6.4. Environmental effects 54 1 Pathways to deep decarbonization in Germany 2015 report 7. Resulting policy challenges 55 7.1. Increase in energy efficiency 55 7.2. Increase in electricity generation from renewable energy sources 58 7.3. Electrification of processes and power-to-x 62 8. Next steps 64 References 65 Standardized DDPP graphics for German scenarios 71 DE - Government Target 72 DE - Renewable Electrification 74 DE - 90% GHG Reduction 76 Pathways to deep decarbonization in Germany 2015 report 2 Executive summary In order for the global community to succeed in climate change mitigation, the issue needs to be addressed at many different political levels, both internationally and nationally. Rec- ognizing the existence of both individual national challenges and common global challenges in climate change mitigation, the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) was co-founded in 2013 by the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) and the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI). The DDPP is a collaborative global initiative that aims to demonstrate how individual coun- tries can transition to a low-carbon economy consistent with the internationally agreed target of limiting the anthropogenic increase in global mean surface temperature to less than 2 degrees Celsius (°C) compared with pre-industrial times. Achieving this target will require that global net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions approach zero by the second half of the century. This will require, more than any other factor, a profound transformation of energy systems by mid-century, through steep declines in carbon intensity in all sectors, a transition we call “deep decarbonization”. In accordance with the proceedings of the fifteen other countries’ teams, this report explores what is required to achieve deep decarbonization in Germany and reach the German target of reducing domestic GHG emissions by 80% to 95% by 2050 (compared with 1990). In past years, Germany achieved significant progress in GHG emission mitigation and also fulfilled its Kyoto target. Overall, GHG emissions have been reduced by 27% between 1990 and 2014. However, progress on GHG emission reductions has slowed down over time. In order to reach 80% to 95% GHG emission reductions by 2050, the average annual emission abatement must amount to 3.5% from 2014 on. Thus, the task requires annual reduction rates in the same range as historically reached maximum values in Germany. The chal- lenge is significant, since in contrast to the successful start of Germany’s energy system transformation, future progress requires deeper structural changes in the energy system and the German economy. 3 Pathways to deep decarbonization in Germany 2015 report Executive summary Potential decarbonization pathways for Germany are illustrated by means of three am- bitious scenarios: y Scenario “Target” from the study “Development of Energy Markets – Energy Reference Forecast” (Schlesinger et al. 2014), here referred to as “Government Target Scenario” y Scenario “100-II” from the study “GROKO II – German Energy Supply Scenarios Based on the EEG Draft Bill” (Nitsch 2014), here called “Renewable Electrification Scenario” y Scenario “KS 90” from the study “Climate Protection Scenario 2050” (Repenning et al. 2014), here referred to as “90% GHG Reduction Scenario” The level of deep decarbonization of the German energy system differs in all three sce- narios, with energy-related emission reductions between 1990 and 2050 varying between 80% and more than 90%. Some of the strategies used to achieve emission reductions also vary between the scenarios. Nevertheless, three strategies that strongly contribute to GHG emission reduction are used to a significant extent in all three analyzed scenarios: y Energy efficiency improvements (in all sectors
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