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Final Water Resources Management Plan 2014

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Final Water Resources Management Plan 2014 FINAL WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT PLAN 2014 DOCUMENT CONTROL SHEET Report Title Final Water Resources Management Plan Release Date 22 August 2014 Report Status Final Authors John Gray, Ian Walker, Liz Wright, Katherine Fuller, Katy Spackman, John Douglas, Dennis Dellow Reviewed by John Devall and Martin Lunn Previous Northumbrian Water - Water Resources Management Plan (2009) Issue Distribution Internal : Applicable Management & Affected Depts List External : Environment Agency and website Version Authorised Approved Date Final John Devall Martin Lunn 14/8/14 Exclusions on the Grounds of National Security Northumbrian Water Limited has excluded Apendix A from this plan on the grounds that the information would be contrary to the interests of national security. Under Section 37B(10)(b) of the Water Industry Act 1991, as amended by the Water Act 2003 (“the Act”), the Secretary of State can direct the company to exclude any information from the published Plan on the grounds that it appears to him that its publication would be contrary to the interests of national security. Disclaimer : This report is intended as confidential to the individuals and or companies listed on the distribution list. Essex & Suffolk Water accept no responsibility of any nature to any third party to whom this report or any part there of is made known. Northumbrian Water is a trading division of Northumbrian Water Limited which is a group company of Northumbrian Water Group Registered in England & Wales No. 2366703 Registered Office: Northumbria House, Abbey Road Pity Me, Durham DH1 5FJ FINAL WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT PLAN 2014 Page 1 CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 4 1.1 OVERVIEW ................................................................................................. 4 1.2 REGULATORY FRAMEWORK ......................................................................... 7 1.3 CONSULTATION .......................................................................................... 7 1.4 MAKING REPRESENTATION .......................................................................... 8 2. BACKGROUND INFORMATION ....................................................................... 9 2.1 PLANNING PERIOD ...................................................................................... 9 2.2 STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT (SEA) ..................................... 10 2.3 PLANNING SCENARIOS .............................................................................. 10 2.4 WATER RESOURCE ZONES ........................................................................ 13 2.5 UPDATE ON CHANGE FROM I-THINK MODEL TO AQUATOR MODEL .................. 18 2.6 COMPANY POLICIES INCLUDING LEVEL OF SERVICE .................................... 25 2.7 DETAILS OF COMPETITORS IN EACH RESOURCE ZONE ................................ 29 2.8 LINKAGES WITH DROUGHT PLAN ................................................................ 29 3. WATER SUPPLY ............................................................................................. 31 3.1 DEPLOYABLE OUTPUT ............................................................................... 32 3.2 REDUCTIONS IN DEPLOYABLE OUTPUT ....................................................... 37 3.3 SUSTAINABILITY REDUCTIONS ................................................................... 37 3.4 RAW WATER LOSSES ................................................................................ 50 3.5 OUTAGE ................................................................................................... 66 3.6 CARBON EMISSIONS FROM WATER OPERATIONS ......................................... 69 3.7 RAW AND POTABLE WATER TRANSFERS AND BULK SUPPLIES ..................... 70 4. WATER DEMAND FORECASTS ..................................................................... 75 4.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................... 75 4.2 BASE YEAR .............................................................................................. 76 4.3 POPULATIONS .......................................................................................... 84 4.4 OCCUPANCY ............................................................................................ 88 4.5 PROPERTIES ............................................................................................ 92 4.6 BASELINE HOUSEHOLD DEMAND FORECASTS ............................................. 97 4.7 MICRO-COMPONENT MODEL .................................................................... 100 4.8 NON-HOUSEHOLD DEMAND FORECASTS .................................................. 120 4.9 TOTAL NORMAL YEAR BASELINE DEMAND FORECASTS ............................. 134 4.10 DEFINING DRY YEAR FACTORS ................................................................ 134 4.11 DRY YEAR BASELINE FORECASTS............................................................ 151 5. BASELINE WATER EFFICIENCY, METERING & LEAKAGE CONTROL ..... 153 5.1 WATER EFFICIENCY OVERVIEW ............................................................... 153 5.2 PROGRESS IN AMP5 AND CURRENT STRATEGY ....................................... 154 5.3 WATER EFFICIENCY STRATEGY FOR AMP6 .............................................. 162 5.4 METERING .............................................................................................. 164 5.5 LEAKAGE FORECAST ............................................................................... 171 6. CLIMATE CHANGE ....................................................................................... 184 6.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................... 184 FINAL WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT PLAN 2014 Page 2 6.2 EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SUPPLY ................................................ 187 6.3 EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DEMAND ............................................... 206 7. TARGET HEADROOM ................................................................................... 209 7.1 BACKGROUND ........................................................................................ 209 7.2 KIELDER WRZ ........................................................................................ 210 7.3 BERWICK WRZ ....................................................................................... 211 8. BASELINE SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE ................................................... 212 8.1 KIELDER WATER RESOURCE ZONE .......................................................... 212 8.2 BERWICK AND FOWBERRY RESOURCE ZONE ............................................ 213 8.3 IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE OVERALL SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE213 8.4 SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE BASELINE SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCE ............................................................................................... 213 8.5 SENSITIVITY TO INDICATIVE SUSTAINABILITY REDUCTIONS ........................ 214 9. OPTION APPRAISAL .................................................................................... 215 10. FINAL WATER RESOURCES STRATEGY ................................................... 216 10.1 FINAL PLANNING SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE ........................................... 217 10.2 SUMMARY OF OVERALL WATER RESOURCES STRATEGY ........................... 217 11. WATER RESOURCES PLANNING TABLES ................................................ 218 12. SECURITY INFORMATION ........................................................................... 219 FIGURES Figure 1: Water Resources Zones Figures 2-13: Demand vs Weather for specific years. Figure 14: Leakage Costs Figure 15: Hypothetical Profile of Leakage Figure 16: ALC Cost Curve APPENDICES Appendix A Water Resource Zone Integrity Report Appendix B SEA Screening Report Appendix C Outage Allowance Methodology Appendix D Micro-component and occupancy survey Appendix E EA Supply Demand Tables Appendix F Population and Property Methodology FINAL WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT PLAN 2014 Page 3 1. INTRODUCTION 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Overview This Final Water Resource Management Plan has been prepared in accordance with the Water Resources Planning Guideline issued by the Environment Agency, Defra, and Ofwat. The plan looks across the period from 2015 to 2040 starting from the baseline position from 2012/13 and includes changes from the consultation on the draft version. Since the 2009 WRMP we have reviewed all components of supply and demand using the appropriate method recommended in the Guidance for the situation within Northumbrian Water (NW). In previous WRMPs we have prepared the plan around the two Water Resource Zones (WRZ) of Kielder and Berwick. We have confirmed the integrity of these two WRZs which is detailed in Appendix A (this appendix is not available as we were required to remove it on the grounds of National security). FINAL WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT PLAN 2014 Page 4 For the Kielder WRZ the planning scenario remains the Dry Year Annual Average (DYAA). The deployable output of the WRZ remains consistent with the previous plan as there have been no additions or loses of either abstraction licenses or treatment works capacities. A range of climate change scenarios have been modelled but climate change has a minimal effect on the deployable output of the system. This is because the Kielder reservoir Tyne-Tees transfer easily compensates for any increased drawdown of the other storage reservoirs as a result
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