Social Upheaval, Poverty and the Latvian Demographic Crisis

ALFRED WONG, Social Justice Research Group, Friends of Aboriginal Health Vancouver, Canada

Abstract

Latvia has been suffering a substantial decrease in population since the early 1990s. There appears to have been little or no detailed analysis of the genesis of this decline in population. The major political event occurring at the beginning of the population decline was the rapid transitioning from socialism to capitalism. This study has revealed the causes of severe population decline to be a combination of steadily-declining birth rate, sharply rising high death rate, and mass emigration of people to wealthier European states. The cross-over of birth rate and death rate could be attributed to the tumultuous societal upheavals in the changeover from the socialistic protective-welfare system to a free-market capitalistic economic system. In particular, this traumatic event had probably affected the physical and mental health of many people to result in premature deaths from, among other things, consequential morbidity, accidents, homicides and suicides. Practicable remedies to arrest the continuing trend of precipitous decline in the population might include a) repairing the failures of the current modality of national health care, b) creating higher paying jobs in Latvia to entice prospective young emigrants to stay in Latvia, and c) repatriating of recent Latvian émigrés.

Keywords: economics, emigration, health, Latvia, population, poverty

Introduction “No people, No problem” – The Socialist Voice, Dublin, Ireland, October, 2012

The population of Latvia has shown a steady pronounced decline since the restoration of the Republic in 1989-1990. Figure 1 shows the population trend since the 1920s. In the 1945-1990 period of the Latvian Soviet Socialist Republic (LSSR), there was a steady increase in population. Superficially, the increase has been attributed by some researchers to the mass immigration of Russians into Latvia, and to the correspondingly decrease due to the mass exodus of Russians after the end of the LSSR rule (Clemens 1991, Kasekamp 2010, Pabriks and Purs 2002, Plakans 2011, Misunas and Taagepera 1992, Taagepera 1981a, Taagepera 1981b). Some Latvian nationalists have also argued that the mass deportation of Latvians to Russian Far East during the Soviet period had caused irreparable damage to the historical ethnic base of Latvia. But how many 98 people were actually deported between 1941 and 1990? The exact figures are largely unknown, with estimates ranging, for example, “about 44,000” (Plakans 2011: 368), “at least 50,000” (Misiunas and Taagepera 1992: 99), and “150,000, including deportation, executions and guerilla warfare” (Clemens 1991: 56). However, this simple depiction does not fully explain the continuing decline during the past 2 decades. This precipitous decline in population since 1990 is beginning to alarm Latvian demographers and commentators (Anon. 2012a, Anon. 2012b, Anon. 2013a, Anon. 2013c, Behmane 2011, Kolyako 2012c, Kūle 2008, Zukula 2013, Zvidrins 2009). There are ominous suggestions that the extinction of the Latvian nation may even be imminent if no action was taken to reverse the disastrous trend (Anon. 2013f). Recent discourse on the cause of the population decline includes decreased birth rate (Kūle 2008, Kazāks 2012), lowered fertility rate (Kolyako 2012a), paltry personal economic wealth relative to the EU1 average to cause emigration (Kolyako 2011a, Kol- yako 2011b, Kolyako 2012c, Strazds and Grennes 2013) and high suicide rate (Grogan January2006). 14, Suggested 2016 remedies include greater2 financial assistanceAK40183W to families22 with young children (Kolyako 2012a) and government task force to lure back recent emigrants suicide(Anon. rate 2012a). (Grogan 2006). Suggested remedies include greater financial assistance to families with young children (Kolyako 2012a) and government task force to lure back recent emigrants (Anon. 2012a).

FFigureigure 1. Demographic1. Demographic trend in Latvia trend in Latvia

3,000,000

2,500,000 a i v t a L - n

o 2,000,000 i t a l u p o P 1,500,000

1,000,000 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

First Republic Latvian Soviet Socialist Republic, Resumption of the also known as the Soviet period First Republic

Period of territorial struggle between Latvian factions backed by the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR)Period of and territorial by the Third struggle Reich (i.e.,between German Latvian National factions Socialist backed (Nazi) regimeby the fromUnion about of 1933Soviet to 1945).Socialist Republics (USSR) and by the Third Reich (i.e., German National Socialist (Nazi) regime from about 1933 to 1945). Source: CSB (2014) data Source: CSB (2014) data

There is anis acutean acute paucity ofpaucity literature of on theliterature cause(s) ofon the the substantial cause(s) population of the decline substantial in Latvia since population 1990. In particular, there appears to have been little or no detailed analysis of the underlying social economicdecline factorsin Latvia such assince social 1990. upheaval In and particular, poverty triggering there thisappears decline to in population,have been during little the or no de- period of rapid transitioning from Soviet economy to EU capitalism. Moreover, this precipitous decline couldtailed not analysis be explained of solelythe underlying by the long-term social trend ofeconomic declining birth factors rate (which such is ubiquitousas social in upheaval most and European societies since the 1960s). This study was undertaken to explore the underlying causes of the demographic crisis and possible effective remedies under the prevailing social economic circumstances. The complex confounding factor of ethnicity in the Latvian demographic crisis has been purposely aside for detailed discussion in a separate forthcoming paper (Wong, 2016).

Methods The demographic data published by the Latvian Central Statistics Bureau (CSB) were used extensively. The population reported denotes residents 2 present in Latvia at the time of the census or estimate. Additional demographic data for comparison were sourced from EUROSTAT and pertinent national statistics agencies.

The public-domain data were assumed to be accurate and truthful. It should be cautioned however that official statistics are known to be altered, distorted or even suppressed surreptitiously for national, political and economic reasons3. Such practice is widespread among virtually all countries around the World. 99 poverty triggering this decline in population, during the period of rapid transitioning from Soviet economy to EU capitalism. Moreover, this precipitous decline could not be explained solely by the long-term trend of declining birth rate (which is ubiquitous in most European societies since the 1960s). This study was undertaken to explore the underlying causes of the demographic crisis and possible effective remedies under the prevailing social economic circumstances. The complex confounding factor of ethnicity in the Latvian demographic crisis has been purposely aside for detailed discussion in a separate forthcoming paper (Wong & Bradley, 2016).

Historical background The demography of modern-day Latvia is tied closely to the formation of the Latvian cultural identity since the time of the Northern Crusade in the 12th Century. Both immigration and emigration policies affecting present-day Latvian demography are notably formulated and practiced by dismissing of the 800-year history of serfdom under Germanic hegemony and by focusing on the past 100-year legacy of Soviet communist influence and presence in Latvia. Russophobia (indeed more generally xenophobia) is entrenched in the psyche of contemporary ultra-nationalists inside and outside of government. Such ethno-centric politics could reasonably be expected to have adverse consequences on the present demographic crisis. A review of the key political events of the 20th Century is thus instructive for the interpretation of the emergence and the continuation of the population crisis of the past two decades. The Eastern coastal region of the Baltic Sea, between ~55 ºN and ~59 ºN, was inhibited by migrating tribes belonging to the Indo-European family from about 4000 BCE. By about 1100 CE, the identifiable tribal groupings were Latgalians living in the northern side of the lower Dvina River, and Semigallians and Selonians (also known collectively as Letts) living in the southern region of the lower Dvina River (Christensen 1997: 36). The Curonians inhibited the peninsula region between Gulf of Riga and the Baltic Sea. The Livs (also known as Livonians) lived along the coastal area of the Gulf of Riga. It may be noted that there are only about 250 claimants of Livonian ethnicity in present day Latvia; they live in a few scattered villages along the western shore of the Gulf of Riga. Figure 2 shows the principal proto-Latvian tribal groups in about 1200 CE. It may be noted that in medieval times, borders are not defined exactly; large rivers, dense forest, and impenetrable swamps usually mark the boundaries of language similarity and/or effective political control. The approximate timeline of territorial suzerainty of Latvia from 11th Century CE to the early 20th Century CE is illustrated in Figure 3. From the start of the Northern Crusade in 1147 CE to about 1918 CE, the suzerainty of region, notably historical Livonia and Courland, changed numerous times among Prussian Teutonic Knights, Sweden, Denmark, Lithuania, Poland, Germany and Russia (Kinder and Hilgemann 1978). From 1720 to 1917, the proto-Latvian nation was a part of the Russian Empire. January 14, 2016 4 AK40183W22

The Eastern coastal region of the Baltic Sea, between ~55 ºN and ~59 ºN, was inhibited by migrating tribes belonging to the Indo-European family from about 4000 BCE. By about 1100 CE, the identifiable tribal groupings were Latgalians living in the northern side of the lower Dvina River, and Semigallians and Selonians (also known collectively as Letts) living in the southern region of the lower Dvina River (Christensen 1997: 36). The Curonians inhibited the peninsula region between Gulf of Riga and the Baltic Sea. The Livs (also known as Livonians) lived along the coastal area of the Gulf of Riga. It may be noted that there are only about 250 claimants of Livonian ethnicity in present day Latvia; they live in a few scattered villages along the100 western shore of the Gulf of Riga. Figure 2 shows the principal proto-Latvian tribal groups in about 1200 CE. It may be noted that in medieval times, borders are not defined exactly; large rivers, dense forest, and impenetrable swamps usually mark the boundaries of language similarity and/or effective political conAbovetrol. all, the Baltic Germans had controlled the clerical and economic life of the region

through 800 years. Until the late th19th Century, proto-Latviansth were largely serfs with The approximate timeline of territorial suzerainty of Latvia from 11 Century CE to the early 20 Century CE is illustrated in Figurelittle 3. From or theno startformal of the education. Northern Crusade in 1147 CE to about 1918 CE, the suzerainty of region, notably historical Livonia and Courland, changed numerous times among Prussian Teutonic Knights, Sweden, Denmark, Lithuania, Poland, Germany and Russia (Kinder and Hilgemann 1978). From 1720 to 1917, theFigure proto -2Latvia. Balticn nation tribes was aat part about of the 1200 Russian CE Empire. Above all, the Baltic Germans had controlled the clerical and economic life of the region through 800 years. Until the late 19th Century, proto-Latvians wereSource: largely adapted serfs with from little https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Livonians or no formal education.

Figure 2. Baltic tribes at about“Latvian 1200 CE cultural re-awakening” apparently began by a small group of local German

Present-day political boundary of the Republic of Latvia

Source: adapted from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Livonians educated elites in ca. 1860; they were concerned about the disappearance of the Latvian language under the dominance of the German language within the Russian hegemony “Latvian cultural re-awakening” apparently began by a small group of local German educated elites in ca. 1860; they were concerned(Pabriks about the disappearanceand Purs 2002: of the 2-6, Latvian Plakans language 2011: under 223-234). the dominance The of first the advancement for the German language within theindependent Russian hegemony Latvia (Pabriks was andled Pursby Valters 2002: 2- 6and, Plakans other 2011: indigenous 223-234). socialists The in the late 19th first advancement for the independentCentury and Latvia the was early led by20th Valters Century and other (Ijabs indigenous 2012a, socialists Ijabs 2012b). in the late The seed of the struggle 19th Century and the early 20th Century (Ijabs 2012a, Ijabs 2012b). The seed of the struggle between the Germanic and Russian culturalbetween influences the Germanic among the Latvian and Russianindependentistes culturalwas influences starting to among be formed the Latvianindependen - during that period (Ijabs 2014).tistes was starting to be formed during that period (Ijabs 2014).

The Republic of Latvia cameThe into Republic existence inof 1918Latvia in came the chaotic into existence aftermath of in the 1918 1917 in Russianthe chaotic aftermath of the Revolution. The Latvian Republic1917 Russian was finally Revolution. recognized inThe 1921 Latvianby the victoriousRepublic European was finally Powers recognized of in 1921 by the victorious European Powers of WWI. For the next 20 years, the politics of the Lat- vian state had evolved steadily into a dictatorship under the control of Kārlis Ulmanis (Kasekamp 2010) pitting the socialists (Bolsheviks) backed by the USSR against the fascists backed by the Third Reich. In the short-lived 1939 Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact, resurgent Germany had secretly assigned Latvia to the Soviet sphere of influence. Nevertheless, the Latvian Republic ended abruptly in 1940 with the invasion of the German armed forces2. January 14, 2016 5 AK40183W22

WWI. For the next 20 years, the politics of the Latvian state had evolved steadily into a dictatorship under 101 the control of Kārlis Ulmanis (Kasekamp 2010) pitting the socialists (Bolsheviks) backed by the USSR against the fascists backed by the Third Reich. In the short-lived 1939 Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact, resurgent Germany had secretly assigned Latvia to the Soviet sphere of influence. Nevertheless, the Latvian Republic Figureended abruptly 3. Time in 1940 line with of the contested invasion of thesuzerainty German armed within forces 4present-day. boundary of Latvia to 1940Figure 3. Time line of contested suzerainty within present-day boundary of Latvia to 1940

Late Neolithic Teutonic Knights Contested control by Sweden, First tribal settlements suzerainty Denmark, Poland-Lithuania, Russian Republic since ~4000 BCE Prussia and Russia (Tsarist) 1918-1940 provincial rule

Century CE 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th 19th 20th

Eight centuries of Germanic clerical-political- commercial hegemony over Latvia ended with the mass evacuation (voluntary repatriation) of about 50,000 Baltic Germans from Latvia to Germany in Start of the Northern (i.e., 1940 (Plakans 2011: 339-340). The data given in Christianization) Crusade in subsequent Figure 8 suggested that another 50,000 1147, as a pre-emptive Latvians might also have accompanied this exodus of territorial contest between Baltic Germans. the Roman bishopric and Byzantium (Constantinople)

The post-war Soviet sphere of influence in Eastern Europe including the Baltic States was agreed secretly Theby post-warall parties Soviet concerned sphereat the of Tehraninfluence Conference in Eastern in late Europe 1943, andincluding confirmed the atBaltic the Yalta States Con wasference agreed in secretly by1945 all parties (see, for concerned example, Riasanovskyat the Tehran 1984: Conference 523-524). inIn late essence, 1943, each and victorious confirmed power at hadthe basicallyYalta Conference staked out its desired sphere of influence and hegemony. Curiously, this fact of history is rarely discussed in by1945 many (see, post for-1990 example, Latvian Riasanovsky historians. At 1984: the conclusion 523-524). of theIn essence, WWII in Europe,each victorious the Soviet power Union had took basically stakedpreviously out its-agreed desired political sphere control of influence of Latvia whichand hegemony. led subsequently Curiously, to the this establishment fact of history of the LSSRis rarely as a discussed byconstituent many post-1990 republic Latvian of the USSR. historians. It is evident At the that conclusion the existence of of the the WWII LSSR has in sEurope,haped and the has Soviet continued Union took previously-agreedto shape the present political public policycontrol of of Latvia Latvia today which (Anon. led 2014). subsequentlyIndeed only to thethe mostestablishment recent period of ofthe LSSR as foreigna constituent domination republic (i.e., theof Sovietthe USSR. era) remains It is evidentprominently that thein the existence political of consciousness the LSSR ofhas post shaped-1990 and has ruling regimes. continued to shape the present public policy of Latvia today (Anon. 2014). Indeed only the most recent periodThe 1of918 foreign Latvian domination Republic was (i.e., formally the Soviet restored era) in remains 1991. The prominently accession of in Latvia the political into the Europeanconsciousness of post-1990Union was ruling in 2004. regimes. Demography As shown in Figure 1, the population of Latvia has been and is still declining steadily since the end of the TheSoviet 1918 period. Latvian Although Republic the decline was during formally the first halfrestored of 1990s, in may1991. be due The mostly accession to the substantial of Latvia into exodus of Russian expatriates, the steady decline in the national population since that time has remain theunabated. European Interestingly, Union Taagepera was in (1981b)2004. was already lamenting about the population crisis in Latvia on the basis of pre-1980 vital statistics. The worsening situation was still 10 years hence.

Natural change StudyThe present data trend of and population methods decline appears to be exacerbated by the longer term decline in the (crude) birth rate and concomitant substantial increase in the death rate. As given in Figure 4, the distinctive cross- Theover demographic of crude birth rate data and published death rate occurred by the in LatviaLatvian at about Central the time Statistics of the rapid Bureau transition (CSB) from were used extensively. The population reported denotes residents present in Latvia at the time of the census or estimate. Additional demographic data for comparison were sourced from EUROSTAT and pertinent national statistics agencies. The public-domain data were assumed to be accurate and truthful. It should be cautioned however that official statistics are known to be altered, distorted or even suppressed surreptitiously for national, political and economic reasons3. Such practice is widespread. 102

The formulae used for the estimation of historical annual net migration are based on the well-known “cohort-component” method for population projection (ONS 2013). Specifically, Cn = Bn - Dn (1) where Cn = natural change for the nth year Bn = crude births reported for the nth year Dn = crude deaths reported for the nth year

Pne = Pno + Cn (2) January where 14, Pne 2016 = population estimate at year3 (December 31) end = populationAK40183W 22estimate at start (January 1) of the following year

The formulae Pno used = population for the estimation reported of historical at nth annual year netstart migra (Januarytion are based1) on the well-known “cohort - component” method for population projection (ONS 2013).

MnSpecifically, = Pnf – Pne (3) C n =B wheren - Dn Mn = net migration for the nth year (1) where CPnfn = natural = population change for thereported nth year for the start of the following (n + 1) year Bn = crude births reported for the nth year Dn = crude deaths reported for the nth year The % rate of crude births (or deaths or migration) is calculated as 100 x (crude births/ Pne =Pno +Cn (2) population)where Pne =for population any specified estimate at yearyear. (December The rate 31) could end = population also be estimateexpressed at as “numbers per 1000 persons”.start (January 1) of the following year Pno = population reported at nth year start (January 1) It may be noted that the estimated net migration does not describe the ethnic or age mixMn =P ofnf people– Pne entering or leaving Latvia. Moreover, with(3) the inclusion of Latvia into where Mn = net migration for the nth year the border-lessPnf = population Schengen reported travel for the Agreement start of the following in December, (n + 1) year 2007, the exact number of

LatviansThe % rate departing of crude births for (or or deaths entering or migration) from is other calculated EU as member 100 x (crude states births/population) became effectively for any lessspecified recordable. year. The rate Thus, could the also deployment be expressed as of “numbers Equation per 1000 (3) personservess” .only as the best-available proxy to quantify the net migration of residents in any one year. The robustness of data It may be noted that the estimated net migration does not describe the ethnic or age mix of people entering deployedor leaving Latvia.in this Moreover, study is with summarized the inclusion ofin LatviaTable into 1. theThe border weakest-less Schengen link is travelclearly Agreement the estimate in ofDecember, inflow 2007,or outflow the exact numbermigration. of Latvians The departingexception for is or that entering the fromLatvian other EUmigration member statesdata given became effectively less recordable. Thus, the deployment of Equation (3) serves only as the best-available priorproxy to to quantify1990 could the net be migration considered of residents to inbe any accurate one year. asThe the robustness movement of data of deployed people in thisduring Sovietstudy is times summarized was highly in Table monitored 1. The weakest andlink regulated. is clearly the However, estimate of inflowfor the or sake outflow of migration. uniformity, The exception is that the Latvian migration data given prior to 1990 could be considered to be accurate as thethe archival movement LSSR of people pre-1990 during Soviet data times set was was highly not monitoredused in the and present regulated. estimationHowever, for of the migration. sake of uniformity, the archival LSSR pre-1990 data set was not used in the present estimation of migration. Table 1. Robustness of population data used Table 1. Robustness of population data used Census year In between census year Population Direct count Projected from data of last census year Vital statistics (births and Exact Exact deaths) Migration Calculated from census-year Calculated from projected population count and vital statistics population and vital statistics

Results and discussion The demography of modern-day Latvia is tied closely to the formation of the Latvian cultural identity since the time of the Northern Crusade in the 12th Century. Both immigration and emigration policies affecting present-day Latvian demography are notably formulated and practiced by dismissing of the 800-year history of serfdom under Germanic hegemony and by focusing on the past 100-year legacy of Soviet communist influence and presence in Latvia. Russophobia (indeed more generally xenophobia) is entrenched intensely in the psychic of contemporary ultra-nationalists inside and outside of government. Such ethno-centric politics could reasonably be expected to have adverse consequences on the present demographic crisis. A review of the key political events of the 20th Century is thus instructive for the interpretation of the emergence and the continuation of the population crisis of the past two decades.

Evolution of the Latvian state 103 Results

Demography The population of Latvia has been and is still declining steadily since the end of the Soviet period (Figure 1). Although the decline during the first half of 1990s, may be due mostly to the substantial exodus of Russian expatriates, the steady decline in the national population since that time has remain unabated. Interestingly, Taagepera (1981b) was already lamenting about the population crisis in Latvia on the basis of pre-1980 vital statistics. The worsening situation was still 10 years hence.

Natural change The present trend of population decline appears to be exacerbated by the longer term decline in the (crude) birth rate and concomitant substantial increase in the death rate. As given in Figure 4, the distinctive cross-over of crude birth rate and death rate occurred in Latvia at about the time of the rapid transition from Soviet socialist system to the free-market capitalistic system. Analysis of the natural change alone, i.e., simple arithmetic difference between crude birth rate and death rate as calculated using Equa- tion (1), is insufficient to provide an accurate view of the prevailing demographic situation. Both crude birth rate and death rate must be considered explicitly in the context of prevailing societal circumstances. It is evident that no matter how high the birth rate might be, the population number will decline if the death rate exceeds the birth rate by a significant margin consistently over a period of time. It is recognized that consistent low birth rate will affect the age distribution of the population in future years, if the death rate remained constant. Accurate prediction of age distribution in future years is problematic as such critical factors as fertility rate and premature (natural or not) death rate are largely unknown. Twenty years later, the Latvian society is still being affected by the fallout of the chaos of the 1990-1995 transition. The death rate has remained substantially higher than the crude birth rate. The overall social cost of transition has been considerable. For example, suicide rate rose substantially from 28.6 per 100,000 in 1991 to 36.4 per 100,000 in 1997 (Rejevska 2005). In the Soviet era, the population relied customarily on State-provided social and economic services. Health care and education were free. Full employment was essentially the norm. In essence, everyone was taken care of, albeit somewhat meagre in many instances. Despite many shortcomings and abusive excesses of the late socialist system, no one was starving, and no one was homeless. As a means of re-population after the substantial population loss during the Great Patriotic War (syn., WWII), the USSR was promoting family formation aggressively with an advanced social assistance system including financial and non-financial bonuses for new family additions, early childhood care, etc. (See, for example, Hecht 1986). January 14, 2016 6 AK40183W22

Soviet socialist system to the free-market capitalistic system. Analysis of the natural change alone, i.e., simple arithmetic difference between crude birth rate and death rate as calculated using Equation (1), is insufficient to provide an accurate view of the prevailing demographic situation. Both crude birth rate and death rate must be considered explicitly in the context of prevailing societal circumstances. It is evident that no matter how high the birth rate might be, the population number will decline if the death rate exceeds the birth rate by a significant margin consistently over a period of time. It is recognized that consistent low birth rate will affect the age distribution of the population in future years, if the death rate remained constant. Accurate prediction of age distribution in future years is problematic as such critical factors as fertility rate and premature (natural or not) death rate are largely unknown.

Twenty years later, the Latvian society is still being affected by the fallout of the chaos of the 1990-1995 transition. The death rate has remained substantially higher than the crude birth rate. The overall social cost of transition has been considerable. For example, suicide rate rose substantially from 28.6 per 100,000 in 1991 to 36.4 per 100,000 in 1997 (Rejevska 2005). In the Soviet era, the population relied customarily on State-provided social and economic services. Health care and education were free. Full employment was essentially the norm. In essence, everyone was taken care of, albeit somewhat meagre in many instances. Despite many shortcomings and abusive excesses of the late socialist system, no one was starving, and no one104 was homeless. As a means of re-population after the substantial population loss during the Great Patriotic War (syn., WWII), the USSR was promoting family formation aggressively with an advanced social assistance system including financial and non-financial bonuses for new family additions, early childhoodFigure care, 4. etc. Latvian (See, for example,crude birth Hecht and 1986). death rates Figure 4. Latvian crude birth and death rates

2.50

2.00 Crude births n o i t a l u

p 1.50 o p n a i v t a

L 1.00 f o Deaths % 0.50

0.00 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Source: CSB (2014) data Source: CSB (2014) data

In the changeover from the Soviet era, this structure was abruptly terminated as Latvia and most other formerIn the republics changeover were rushing from invariantly the Soviet to embrace era, freethis-market structure capitalistic was systabruptlyem to varying terminated extent. In as Latvia Latvia,and State most-owned other industries former built republics up during thewere Soviet rushing period wereinvariantly suddenly destroyedto embrace by abandonment free-market capi- and/or by privatization. Mass unemployment resulted. In the new free-market capitalistic system of “survivaltalistic of the system fittest”, to few varying people became extent. very In rich Latvia, instantly State-owned with the influx of industries speculative funds built from up theduring the “freeSoviet West”, period and many were (especially suddenly older people) destroyed were leftby behindabandonment socially and and/or economically. by privatization. This sudden Mass destruction of societal structure has caused to a rapid increase in alcohol and drug abuse, homelessness, etc. whichunemployment subsequently led resulted. to a sharp In rise the in new premature free-market deaths from capitalistic, consequential some morbidity, people accidents, became very homicidesrich instantly and suicides. with It doesthe influx not appear of thatspeculative the perpetuators funds of from this structuralthe “free change West” abetted while many (especially older people) were left behind socially and economically. This sudden destruction of societal structure has caused to an increase in alcohol and drug abuse, homelessness, etc. which subsequently led to a sharp rise in premature deaths from consequential morbidity, accidents, homicides and suicides. It does not appear that the perpetuators of this structural change abetted enthusiastically by western Europe and others had fully considered the subsequent adverse effects on the people at large. In ret- rospect, these human catastrophes could have been avoided if there had been less frenzy and exuberance during the period of pursuit of “freedom, prosperity and democracy”. Figure 5 shows the presence of the same cross-over of birth and death rates in neighbouring Estonia and Lithuania. Except during the 1917 collapse of Romanov rule and the 1940 Winter War, there was no similar cross-over pattern in Finland. It is pertinent to note that the proposition advanced by Pritchett and Viarengo (2012) about the relationship between prosperity and new personal choices available to degrade irrevocably the societal percept of having children as cultural and social validation. As exemplified by Finland with one of the most generous support schemes for family formation among EU member states, improving financial support for family formation in Latvia would probably not result in arresting the continued decline in crude birth rate. 105

Recent slight increases in Europe-wide birth rates have been discussed by, among others, Hoem (2005) and Bongaarts and Sobotka (2012). However, these analyses appear to have ignored the confounding effect of the changing ethnicity of the base population as caused by the influx of non-European immigrants into Europe. For example, Turkish-ethnic residents now account for nearly 10 per cent of the present population in Germany. In France, African and Arabic population might be as much as 20 per cent of the total population4. The percept and practice of family formation of these ethnics group (perhaps even at the second generation level) could reasonably be expected to be very different from those of contemporary indigenous Europeans. The statistical data given in Figure 6 suggest the impact of this transitional event was also evident on the steep decline in crude birth rate of other former republics of the USSR. On its own, rising death rate is not necessarily alarming to affect population status. The situation becomes critical from the perspective of population replacement only when the birth rate is also declining. Interestingly, only republics which are pre- dominately Slavic had also a concomitant substantial rise in the death rate of all causes. One plausible explanation for this notable occurrence is the different social cultures of Slavic (Christian) and non-Slavic (Islamic) communities. In (Orthodox) Christian societies, i.e., Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, alcohol (over)consumption is an accepted social practice which could be an additional factor of premature mortality. In contrast, in Islamic culture, consumption of alcohol is harām5. Moreover, unlike Orthodox Christian ambiguity about suicide, Islam views suicide to be a sinful act6. Furthermore, the historic high birth rates in former republics of the USSR with substantial Moslem population may be rooted in religious belief and cultural suspicion. Roudi-Fahimi (2004) had observed additionally that there is a widespread resistance to the adoption of interventionist birth control method among the Moslem communities because of the deep suspicion that it is a grand scheme perpetuated by the “Christian West” to decrease the political influence of Islam by reducing the Moslem population. It is possible that citizens of the “less industrialized and less urbanized” former republics of the USSR may have also encountered generally less stresses of modern lifestyle changes to result in little or no change in death rate. Nevertheless, the recent historical evidence suggests social upheaval to be the root cause of the present demographic crisis in Latvia as well as in other similar (Christenic) societies of the former USSR. It is interesting to note in Figure 6 that the death rate (of all causes) was beginning to rise appreciably already in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine in about 1980. These countries were the leading members of the USSR. In comparison, the rise in death rate between 1980 and 1990 in Latvia (in Figure 4). Estonia (in Figure 5) and Lithuania (in Figure 5) was somewhat less pronounced. It is generally recognized that there was appreciable concomitant decline in the public health and health care system in constituent republics of the USSR in the decade prior to 1900, the origins of which are not fully clear. 106

January 14, 2016 8 AK40183W22 Figure 5. Crude birth rate and death rate in neighbouring Baltic States F igure 5. Crude birth rate and death rate in neighbouring Baltic States Estonia 3.00 Crude births 2.50 n o

i 2.00 t a l u p

o 1.50 p f o 1.00 % Deaths 0.50

0.00 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Lithuania 3.50 Crude births 3.00

n 2.50 o i t a l 2.00 u p o p

f 1.50 o

% 1.00 Deaths 0.50

0.00 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Finland 3.50 Crude births 3.00

n 2.50 o i t a l 2.00 u p o p

f 1.50 o

% 1.00

0.50 Deaths

0.00 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Source: Statistics Estonia (2014) data; Statistics Finland (2014) data; Statistics Lithuania (2014) data Source: Statistics Estonia (2014) data; Statistics Finland (2014) data; Statistics Lithuania (2014) data 107 January 14, 2016 9 AK40183W22

FigureFigure 6 .6Crude. Crude birth birth rate and rate death and rate death of selected rate formerof selected republics former of the USSR republics of the USSR

Azerbaijan (mostly non-Slavic Moslems) Belarus (mostly Slavic Christians) 4.5 3.0 Crude births Crude births 4.0 2.5 3.5 n n o o i i t t 3.0 2.0 a a l l u u 2.5 p p

o 1.5 o p p 2.0

Deaths f Deaths f o o 1.5 1.0 % % 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Kazakhstan (mostly non-Slavic Moslems) Russia (mostly Slavic Christians) 4.0 3.5 Crude births Crude births 3.5 3.0 3.0 n 2.5 n o i t o i t a 2.5 l Deaths a l u 2.0 u p p

o 2.0 o p

Deaths p f

f 1.5 o 1.5 o % 1.0 % 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 0.0 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Uzbekistan (mostly non-Slavic Moslems) Ukraine (mostly Slavic Christians) 2.5 4.0 Crude births 3.5 Crude births 2.0 n n 3.0 o i t o i t a l 1.5 a u l 2.5 p u o p Deaths o 2.0 p p f 1.0 f o

o 1.5 Deaths % % 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 1960 1980 2000 2020 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Note:Note: The The vital vital statistics statistics of of several several other other former former republics republics of of the the USSR USSR were were not not shown shown because because of ofsub- stantialsubstantial changes changes in national in national boundaries boundaries arising arising from fromwars (i.e., wars Transnistria (i.e., Transnistria from Moldova, from Moldova, and Abkhazia and andAbkhazia South andOssetia South fromOssetia Georgia), from natural Georgia), disasters natural (i.e., disasters Armenia) (i.e., or Armenia) the lack orof reliable the lack statistical of reliable data statistical data (i.e., Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan). (i.e., Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan). Source: Published data of various national statisticalSource: Published agencies data of various national statistical agencies 108

In a study of selected Eastern European countries after the collapse of the USSR, Várnik (2012: 159-164) and Kõlves et al. (2013) had concluded that the adverse changes in suicide rates to be related to the socioeconomic disruptions. Rechel et al. (2013) have reported large decreases in life expectancy in the Commonwealth of Independent States since the 1990s. However, in an earlier study about Latvia, Rancans et al. (2001) did not find any relationship between rapid changes in suicide rates, and demographic and socioeconomic factors. Increase in suicide rate is perhaps only one element of higher reported mortality arising from the traumatic destruction of the societal structure. This adverse outcome could not have predicted readily from the retrospective analysis of the slow-moving trend in life expectancy (at birth) of the general population in Latvia as well as in other former republics of the USSR. Through the prism of the reference frame of “superior western democracy”, Mack- enbach (2013) and Mackenbach et al. (2013) contended that living under democra- cies afford inherently healthier lives. This proposition would appear to be somewhat unfounded as it does not account for the more important factor of government policy priorities on national health care, regardless of whether a State is democratic or not. Witness the case of Cuba in which the World Heath Organization consistently ranks it to be at top level of health care in the World. And yet the democracy modality of Cuba is distinctly different from that of the European Union, for example. Mackenbach and co-researchers did however concede broadly that the substantial sudden changes in political conditions had also caused unexpected decline in the health of the population in central and eastern European states which were not formally members of the USSR. But in the absence of specific societal context, there is no reason why unrestricted freedom (i.e., new politics) would provide higher healthy life expectancy. As shown in Figure 7, the amount and effectiveness of money spent on national health care in the context of government policy priorities would intuitively be a more critical determinant of good health. Note that “unfree” Cuba spent nearly 10 times less on health care than the “free” USA on a per capita basis, and yet the health outcome as depicted by life expectancy is nearly the same. This comparison suggests that higher expenditure in health care, for example beyond the pivotal point of Cuba, does not necessarily result in significantly higher life expectancy. The correlation between life expectancy (i.e., how long a person might expect to live) and death rate (i.e., a direct record of the expiration of life) is tenuous at best. Ainsaar (2011) had addressed the issue of population changes on the basis of prevailing life expectancy which is calculated from numerous temporal qualitative and quantitative variables such as employment, financial income, expected and real quality of life, etc. Death rate or absolute number of deaths might have been a better (and simpler) means to assess population changes. Similarly, Minagawa (2013) concluded that people living in “countries where corruption, restriction of freedom, and violence are prevalent spend fewer years in good health”. Some of these highly-publicized negative attributes of the Eastern European states and former USSR might just have been circumstantial correlates. In the case of 109

corruption, it has been reported to be also widespread in the “healthy” EU (see, for example, European Commission 2014). Corruption is a complex issue arising from, among other things, poverty perpetuated by neocolonial free-market liberalism (see, for example, Wong and Gomes 2014), psychopathic pursuit of corporate profit (Wong and Hallsworth 2013, Hallsworth and Wong 2015), and geo-political hegemony through bribery (Wong and Gomes 2014). The excesses committed in the restructuring of the Latvian society during the 1990s were probably driven to a certain extent by previously latent nationalist sentiment in the severe reaction to the 45 years of the Soviet period. Rampage against “everything Russian” was in vogue. Perhaps the seduction of promised EU largesse had also played a vital role in triggering the societal dismemberment and subsequent human catastrophes. The possible dire consequence of these political changes did not appear to have been considered thoroughly by domestic and foreign parties in power. Regrettably for Latvia, this crisis of population decline continues unabated nearly 25 years after the demise of the Latvian Soviet Socialist Republic.

January 14, 2016 11 AK40183W22 Figure 7. Health care spending and life expectancy in 2008 (number of countries surveyed) Figure 7. Health care spending and life expectancy in 2008 (number of countries surveyed)

Cuba (495, 77) Africa (50) Others (140)

90 Latvia (1206, 71 years) s r a

e 80 y , ) 8 0 Finland (3299, 80) 0

2 70 (

h Botswana (1053, 61) USA (7164, 78) t r i

b 60 t a

y South Africa (843, 53) c n

a 50 t c

e Equatorial Guinea (658, 53) p x e 40 e f i Afghanistan (57, 42) L 30 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 Total per capita expenditure on health (2008), PPP$

Sources: Adapted from Wong and Gomes 2014

Sources: Adapted from Wong and Gomes 2014 Emigration It is widely known that there has been significant emigration of citizens, especially after the accession of Latvia toEmigration the EU in 2004. The cumulative emigration since the Latvia accession to the EU (i.e., loss of populationIt between is widely 2004 known-2012) was that 163,759 there (~20,469 has been each significant year on average). emigrationIreland and of the citizens, UK are theespecially after largest recipients of Latvian émigrés (Göler et al. 2014). It is interesting to compare this emigration figure to the citedthe highest accession loss of of “150,000” Latvia Latvian to the nationals EU in during2004. the The 45 -cumulativeyear Soviet period. emigrationThe calculated since the Latvia average lossaccession in the latter to case the would EU (i.e.,have be lossen ~3,300 of population annually. between 2004-2012) was 163,759 (~20,469 Figure 8 showseach year the trend on ofaverage).net migration Irelandsince and 1920 .theIt may UK be are noted the that largest for reasons recipients of ethno of-centric Latvian émigrés politics, there is (and has been) no significant immigration since the early 1990s. Interestingly, there have been recent accusations that the official statistics may have purposely under-reported the Latvian exodus (Anon. 2013d). Nevertheless, if this pattern was repeated successively, the obvious net result, i.e., sum of deaths and emigration being greater than births, is a continuing precipitous fall in population.

Figure 9 shows that the cross-over trend of crude births and deaths, in absolute numbers, of residents of Latvia during the period of 1970-2010. Note that the cross-over point is the same as that given previously in Figure 4. The straight-line correlation coefficient, r2, between crude births and crude birth rate, as well as between deaths and death rate, is 0.94 (not shown). Note that in the post-1990 era, the number of crude births year-by-year remained well below that of deaths. This persistent gap between crude births and deaths of cohorts who have not emigrated from Latvia has a considerable impact on population size. It is evident that the present demographic crisis is continuing regardless of the method of calculation used.

In addition to the previously-discussed decline in health care in the post-1990 era in transitioning from a socialistic economy to a capitalistic economy, there is the unknown factor of possible differential access to quality health care in the post-1990 era. For example, do older non-citizens8, i.e., mainly Russian-speaking people who had come to reside in Latvia after 1940, have less access to quality health care? Has there been systemic discrimination in the delivery of quality health care to non-citizens as a class of residents? One could only speculate about the actual situation as no reliable data are available presently to prove or disprove this very politically-sensitive matter (Wong, 2016). 110

(Göler et al. 2014). It is interesting to compare this emigration figure to the cited highest loss of “150,000” Latvian nationals during the 45-year Soviet period. The calculated average loss in the latter case would have been ~3,300 annually. Figure 8 shows the trend of net migration since 1920. It may be noted that for reasons of ethno-centric politics, there is (and has been) no significant immigration since the early 1990s. Interestingly, there have been recent accusations that the official statistics may have purposely under-reported the Latvian exodus (Anon. 2013d). Nevertheless, if this pattern was repeated successively, the obvious net result, i.e., sum of deaths and emigration being greater than births, is a continuing precipitous fall in population. Figure 9 shows that the cross-over trend of crude births and deaths, in absolute numbers, of residents of Latvia during the period of 1970-2010. Note that the cross- over point is the same as that given previously in Figure 4. The straight-line correlation coefficient, r2, between crude births and crude birth rate, as well as between deaths and death rate, is 0.94 (not shown). Note that in the post-1990 era, the number of crude births year-by-year remained well below that of deaths. This persistent gap between crude births and deaths of cohorts who have not emigrated from Latvia has a considerable impact on population size. It is evident that the present demographic crisis is continuing regardless of the method of calculation used. In addition to the previously-discussed decline in health care in the post-1990 era in transitioning from a socialistic economy to a capitalistic economy, there is the unknown factor of possible differential access to quality health care in the post-1990 era. For example, do older non-citizens7, i.e., mainly Russian-speaking people who had come to reside in Latvia after 1940, have less access to quality health care? Has there been systemic discrimination in the delivery of quality health care to non-citizens as a class of residents? One could only speculate about the actual situation as no reliable data are available presently to prove or disprove this politically highly sensitive matter (Wong January& Bradley, 14, 2016 2016). 12 AK40183W22

FFigureigure 8. 8Net. Net migration migration from Latvia from Latvia

150,000 Population 3,000,000

100,000 2,500,000 n o i t a

r 50,000 2,000,000 g i n o m i t t a e l

n 0 1,500,000 u p d o e t P a

m -50,000 1,000,000 i t s Net migration E -100,000 500,000

-150,000 0 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Source: CSB (2014) data

Figure 9. Reported crude births and deaths of residents of Latvia, 1970-2010 inclusive

Crude births Deaths

50,000

s 40,000 r e b m

u 30,000 n e t u l

o 20,000 s a b

A 10,000

0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Source: CSB (2014) data

It is recognized that emigration has a long term negative effect on the remaining population in future years, especially if the majority of emigrants was of child-bearing age. Thus, the birth rate of the remaining population could be adversely affected. Figure 10 shows the general lack of correlation between migration and crude births, without considering a) any possible time-delayed effects between migration and births, and b) specific age distribution of migrants over time. The data were not pooled for analysis because the circumstances pertaining to immigration in the pre-1990 period were very different from those pertaining to emigration in the post-1990 era. It is possible that the death rate might be shifted higher statistically because with younger people emigrating, there would be disproportionately more remaining people at the January 14, 2016 12 AK40183W22

Figure 8. Net migration from Latvia

150,000 Population 3,000,000

100,000 2,500,000 n o i t a

r 50,000 2,000,000 g i n o m i t t a e l

n 0 1,500,000 u p d o e t P a

m -50,000 1,000,000 i t s Net migration E -100,000 500,000

-150,000 0 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Source: CSB (2014) data 111

FigureFigure 9. Reported9. Reported crude birthscrude and births deaths and of residents deaths of of Latvia, residents 1970-2010 of inclusiveLatvia, 1970-2010 inclusive

Crude births Deaths 50,000

s 40,000 r e b m

u 30,000 n e t u l

o 20,000 s a b

A 10,000

0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Source: CSB (2014) data It is recognized that emigration has a long term negative effect on the remaining popu- It is recognized that emigration has a long term negative effect on the remaining population in future years, especiallylation in if future the majority years, of especiallyemigrants was if ofthe child majority-bearing age.of emigrants Thus, the birth was rate ofof child-bearing the remaining age. populationThus, the could birth be adverselyrate of affected.the remainingFigure 10 showspopulation the general could lack ofbe correlation adversely between affected. migration Figure and crude births, without considering a) any possible time-delayed effects between migration and births, and10 b)shows specific theage general distribution lack of migrantsof correlationover time .between The data were migration not pooled and for analysicrudes becausebirths, thewithout circumstancesconsidering pertaining a) any topossible immigration time-delayed in the pre-1990 effects period we betweenre very different migration from those and pertaining births, to and b) emigration in the post-1990 era. It is possible that the death rate might be shifted higher statistically becausespecific with age younger distribution people emigrating, of migrants there would over be time. disproportionately The data morewere remaining not pooled people for at theanalysis because the circumstances pertaining to immigration in the pre-1990 period were very different from those pertaining to emigration in the post-1990 era. It is possible that the death rate might be shifted higher statistically because with younger people emigrating, January 14, 2016 13 AK40183W22 there would be disproportionately more remaining people at the “dying age”. However, such a shifted higher death rate might be of minor significance in view of the observed “dying age”. However, such a shifted higher death rate might be of minor significance in view of the observedlong-termlong-term trend trend of of(high)(high) number of of deaths deaths of remaining of remaining residents ,residents, as shown in Figureas shown 9. in Figure 9.

FigureFigure 10. Relationship10. Relationship between migration between and migration crude births, inand absolute crude numbers, births, on in a yearlyabsolute basis numbers, on a yearly basis

Pre-1990 Post-1990

40,000 30,000 , n

s 20,000 o r i t e

a 10,000 b r g m i 0 u m n -10,000 d e t e t u

l -20,000 a o s m i -30,000 t b s a

E -40,000 -50,000 -60,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Crude births, absolute numbers

Source: CSB (2014) data

What causes this mass emigration in the new free-market capitalistic society of Latvia? Emigration in modern times could be attributed generally to only 4 major causes, viz., war, famine, pestilence and poverty. There has been no major war, famine or pestilence in Latvia since 1945. Latvians emigrate largely to other wealthier northern EU states in search of a more prosperous future. Other EU states such as Ireland and Portugal have a similar pattern of similar mass emigration of people during the current period of high unemployment rate arising from the recent collapse of the EU economy. For example, approximately 400,000 out of a base population of about 11 million have left Portugal since 2008 in search of a better life elsewhere (Lyulko 2014). But how poor are Latvians quantitatively in comparison to Irish in the context of mass emigration? The classical cost comparison of standard “food basket” or “housing” is somewhat meaningless as the acceptable (or tolerable) lifestyles of Latvians are very different from those of Irish. Thus, the “purchasing power parity” method was not considered to be applicable for this and other economic comparisons. A veritable test would be to compare the relative cost of “vacation air fare” between, for example, Riga and Dublin. The premise is that everyone is entitled to the same vacation opportunity. The comparison of the “return airfare as a % of average annual gross earning” in Table 2 suggests Latvians to be about 3 times poorer than Irish. 112

In ethno-centric politics, population loss due to emigration is of less concern to the ultra- nationalists inside and outside of government; their viewpoint is that emigration should be encouraged as a facile means to purge Russian-speaking Latvians of all ages from Latvia. This approach has evidently nothing to do with economics or family policies. It may never be known if such ethnic-based emigration statistics were collected officially but not published openly for political reasons (Wong & Bradley, 2016). What causes this mass emigration in the new Latvia? Emigration in modern times could be attributed generally to only 4 major causes, viz., war, famine, pestilence and poverty. There has been no major war, famine or pestilence in Latvia since 1945. Latvians emigrate largely to other wealthier northern EU states in search of a more prosperous future. Other EU states such as Ireland and Portugal have a similar pattern of similar mass emigration of people during the current period of high unemployment rate arising from the recent collapse of the EU economy. For example, approximately 400,000 out of a base population of about 11 million have left Portugal since 2008 in search of a better life elsewhere (Lyulko 2014). But how poor are Latvians quantitatively in comparison to Irish in the context of mass emigration? The classical cost comparison of standard “food basket” or “housing” is somewhat meaningless as the acceptable (or tolerable) lifestyles of Latvians are very different from those of Irish. Thus, the “purchasing power parity” method was not considered to be applicable for this and other economic comparisons. A veritable test would be to compare the relative cost of “vacation air fare” between, for example, Riga and Dublin. The premise is that everyone is entitled to the same vacation opportunity. The comparison of the “return airfare as a % of average annual gross earning” in Table 2 suggests Latvians to be about 3 times poorer than Irish.

January 14, 2016 14 AK40183W22 Table 2. Comparative poverty in Latvia and in Ireland

Table 2. Comparative poverty in Latvia and in Ireland

Nominal annual Travel routing All-in return Air fare % of gross earning, € via Frankfurt (a) airfare, € annual gross earning Irish vacationer 40,000 Dublin  Riga  Dublin 487.50 1.22 Latvian vacationer 10,000 Riga  Dublin  Riga 358.17(b) 3.58 Notes: Notes:(a) One -week vacation starting on July 6, 2013 and ending on July 13, 2013; Lufthansa (a non-budget (a) One-weekairline) first vacation early morning starting departures on July only.6, 2013 and ending on July 13, 2013; Lufthansa (a non-budget airline)(b) Conversion first early from morning LVL 251.79, departures at €1.00 only. = LVL 0.703 (fixed rate since 1999). Latvian Lat (LVL) was the national currency from about 1990 to 2013. (b) Conversion from LVL 251.79, at €1.00 = LVL 0.703 (fixed rate since 1999).Source: Latvian Wong Lat (LVL) 2013 was the national currency from about 1990 to 2013. Source: Wong 2013

Figure 11 shows the average annual gross earnings in industry and services of selected groups of EU member states. In order to reach wage parity with the northern EU member states by 2022, a sustained annual wage increase of about 17% in Latvia would be required, on the basis an example constant 2% annual growth in wages of northern EU states. It is obvious that the Latvian wage-parity target could not be attained at such an annual intense growth rate. Pursuit of Latvians to earn higher wages in wealthy EU states would persist regardless of the acceptable or tolerable (low cost) lifestyles in their homeland, in the era of “freedom to travel or work” in the new EU. This modality of economic migration is not totally different from that described elsewhere (see, for example, Wong and Gomes, 2012).

Figure 11. Wage gap between Latvia and selected ‘wealthy’ EU-15 member States

LV SK PL HU CZ UK IE DE FI SE

50,000

40,000

s Convergence o r u

E 2% growth ,

y in UK wages r 30,000 a l annually a s s s o r

g 20,000 y l r a e Y 17% growth 10,000 in LV wages annually

0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: EUROSTAT (2014) data

It is instructive to compare the minimum wage level in Latvia with the UK and Ireland, the preferred destinations of most Latvian emigrants. As shown in Figure 12, the minimum wage of a teacher in Latvia is substantially less than that of an unskilled labourer in Ireland or the UK. This severe economic disparity January 14, 2016 14 AK40183W22

Table 2. Comparative poverty in Latvia and in Ireland

Nominal annual Travel routing All-in return Air fare % of gross earning, € via Frankfurt (a) airfare, € annual gross earning 113 Irish vacationer 40,000 Dublin  Riga  Dublin 487.50 1.22 Latvian vacationer 10,000 Riga  Dublin  Riga 358.17(b) 3.58 Notes: (a) FigureOne-week 11 vacation shows starting the average on July 6, annual 2013 and gross ending earnings on July 13, in 2013; industry Lufthansa and (a nonservices-budget of selected airline) first early morning departures only. (b) groupsConversion of fromEU member LVL 251.79, states. at €1.00 In = order LVL 0.703 to reach(fixed ratewage since parity 1999). withLatvian the Lat northern (LVL) was EU mem- berthe nationalstates bycurrency 2022, from a sustained about 1990 toannual 2013. wage increase of about 17% in Latvia would be required, on the basis an example constant 2% annual growth in Source:wages Wong of northern 2013 EU states. It is obvious that the Latvian wage-parity target could not be attained at such Figurean annual11 shows intense the average growth annual rate. gross Pursuit earnings of in Latvians industry and to services earn higher of selected wages groups in ofwealthy EU EU member states. In order to reach wage parity with the northern EU member states by 2022, a sustained annualstates wage would increase persist of about regardless 17% in Latvia of wouldthe acceptable be required, onor the tolerable basis an example(low cost) constant lifestyles 2% in annualtheir growth homeland, in wages ofinnorthern the era EU ofstates. “freedom It is obvious to travel that the or Latvian work” wage in -theparity new target EU. could This not modality be attained at such an annual intense growth rate. Pursuit of Latvians to earn higher wages in wealthy EU statesof wouldeconomic persist regardlessmigration of theis not acceptable totally or tolerabledifferent (low from cost) that lifestyles described in their homeland,elsewhere in the (see, for eraexample, of “freedom Wong to travel and or work”Gomes, in the2012). new EU. This modality of economic migration is not totally different from that described elsewhere (see, for example, Wong and Gomes, 2012).

Figure 11. Wage gap between Latvia and selected ‘wealthy’ EU-15 member States Figure 11. Wage gap between Latvia and selected ‘wealthy’ EU-15 member States

LV SK PL HU CZ UK IE DE FI SE

50,000

40,000

s Convergence o r u

E 2% growth ,

y in UK wages r 30,000 a l annually a s s s o r

g 20,000 y l r a e Y 17% growth 10,000 in LV wages annually

0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Source: EUROSTAT (2014) data Source: EUROSTAT (2014) data

It is instructive to compare the minimum wage level in Latvia with the UK and Ireland, the preferred destinationsIt is instructive of most Latvian to compare emigrants. the As shownminimum in Figure wage 12, thelevel minimum in Latvia wage ofwith a teacher the UK in Latvia and isIreland, substantiallythe preferred less than destinations that of an unskilled of most labourer Latvian in Ire landemigrants. or the UK. As This shownsevere ineconomic Figure disparity 12, the minimum wage of a teacher in Latvia is substantially less than that of an unskilled labourer in Ireland or the UK. This severe economic disparity would logically induce the educated Latvians to emigrate under the “freedom to travel and work” regime of the new Europe. As an escape from poverty, some Latvian young women have emigrated to Ireland to participate in fake-marriage schemes as a quick means of earning a higher income than that possible in Latvia (Katz 2011, Cahill 2013). An economic solution to this problem is obviously needed. Note also that the official wage of a Latvian Minster of State is only slightly higher than the minimum wage of an Irish or British unskilled worker. This January 14, 2016 15 AK40183W22 114 would logically induce the educated Latvians to emigrate under the “freedom to travel and work” regime of the new Europe. As an escape from poverty, some Latvian young women have emigrated to Ireland to participate in fake-marriage schemes as a quick means of earning a higher income than that possible in Latviaextreme (Katz 2011 disparity, Cahill 2013). of earnings An economic from solution employment to this problem creates is obviously one of needed. the essential Note also that conditions the officialfor corruption wage of a Latvian among Minster government of State is onofficialsly slightly higherof all thanranks. the minimumIndeed, wageLatvia of anis Irishranked or among British unskilled worker. This extreme disparity of earnings from employment creates one of the essential conditionsthe most for corruption corrupt among countries government in the officials European of all ranks. Union Indeed, (Transparency Latvia is ranked International among the most 2013). corrupt countries in the European Union (Transparency International 2013). Figure 12. Statutory minimum monthly salary (before any deductions) Figure 12. Statutory minimum monthly salary (before any deductions)

Latvia Ireland UK

2,000 Official wage of Latvian minister of State at €1,700 (Anon. 2013b ) , e g

a 1,500 h w t n m o u m m r i e n

i 1,000 p m s o y r r Latvian teachers’ minimum salary u o t at €384 (Kolyako 2012b) E u t 500 a t S

0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Source: EUROSTAT (2014) data Source: EUROSTAT (2014) data

TheThe much much-touted-touted austerity suausterityccesses (Saltzmann successes 2012) (Saltzmann and current economic2012) and recovery current (Weisbrot economic and Ray recovery 2011, Blanchard et al. 2013: European Commission 2013) do not address the fundamental underlying issue of causing(Weisbrot continued and mass Ray emigration 2011, Blanchard (Anon. 2012b et, Sommersal. 2013: and European Hudson 2013). CommissionJust like in Ireland, 2013) do not emigrationaddress hides the the fundamental national jobless underlying figures (Newenham issue 2012of causing). In officialdom, continued the falling mass unemployment emigration (Anon. rate ignores the distorting statistics of mass exodus of unemployed people. The consolation of unrestricted emigration2012b, is Sommers that it has served and Hudson (and continued 2013). to serve) Just aslike a “safetyin Ireland, valve” emigration in avoiding massive hides social the national unrestjobless inside figures Latvia, in (Newenham the absence of any2012). apparent In officialdom, concerted effort the to providefalling enduring unemployment employment, rate ignores especially to the educated youth. Recent mass migration of Romanians to escape homeland poverty is a casethe in point distorting (Meeus 2013).statistics In the of present mass day, exodus it is the of EU unemployed “free market” policy people.that willThe affect consolation the fate of of unre- the Latvianstricted demographic emigration status is in that future it years.has served (and continued to serve) as a “safety valve” in Remedialavoiding strategy massive for re-population social unrest inside Latvia, in the absence of any apparent concerted It iseffort obvious to that provide if the death enduringrate was fixedemployment, to be the same especially as the crude to birth the rate, educated the population youth. would Recent be mass stabilized, albeit at a low (or high) level. In this instance, any net increase could only arise from immigrationmigration of foreigners of Romanians and/or re -toimmigration escape homeland of recent Latvian poverty émigrés. is aUnfortunately, case in point Latvia (Meeus is not a2013). In preferredthe present destination day, of foreignersit is the eagerEU “free to immigrate, market” legally policy or illegally, that will to Europe. affect Thethe destinationfate of the of Latvian choice is typically prosperous Germany or the UK. It is a simple matter of economic opportunity. It follows thatdemographic there have been status very few in immigrants future years. granted Latvian citizenship during the past 2 decades (CSB 2014). The recent proposed change in citizenship law permits dual citizenship (Petrova 2012) with the plausible underlying aim to re-populate Latvia by the creation of new citizens of Latvian-ethnicity from Latvian expatriate communities. It is however unrealistic to expect that descendents of Latvians who had Discussion: Remedial strategy for re-population It is obvious that if the death rate was fixed to be the same as the crude birth rate, the population would be stabilized, albeit at a low (or high) level. In this instance, any net increase could only arise from immigration of foreigners and/or re-immigration of recent Latvian émigrés. Unfortunately, Latvia is not a preferred destination of foreigners 115 eager to immigrate, legally or illegally, to Europe. The destination of choice is typically prosperous Germany or the UK. It is a simple matter of economic opportunity. It follows that there have been very few immigrants granted Latvian citizenship during the past 2 decades (CSB 2014). The recent proposed change in citizenship law permits dual citizenship (Petrova 2012) with the plausible underlying aim to re-populate Latvia by the creation of new citizens of Latvian-ethnicity from Latvian expatriate communities. It is however unrealistic to expect that descendents of Latvians who had emigrated during the 1940 voluntary exodus (via Germany) would seek to return to re-settle in Latvia. Too much time and distance had transpired. In fact, very few the 1940-exodus group had actually returned to settle in Latvia permanently since the restoration of the Latvian Republic in 1990. For example, the number of USA citizens residing in Latvia has ranged only between 200 and 300 in each year between 1996 and 20138 (CSB 2014) and yet USA has the largest Latvian expatriate community in the World. Patriotic and/ orJanuary cultural 14, 2016appeal to return to the Latvian16 homeland is of little or noAK40183W practical22 attraction to Latvian expatriates living well in cash-based societies abroad. The overlay of this peculiaremigrated immigration during the 1940 outcome voluntary exodus is the (via ever-present Germany) would ethno-centric seek to return toimperative re-settle in Latvia. of “preserv Too - much time and distance had transpired.9 In fact, very few the 1940-exodus group had actually returned to ingsettle Latvia in Latvia for permanently pur laine since Latvians”. the restoration Such of the a Latvian type of Republic sentiment in 1990. is For notably example, ubiquitous the number in manyof USA contemporary citizens residing incommunities Latvia has ranged throughout only between Europe 200 and and 300 inelsewhere. each year between 1996 and 20139 (CSB 2014) and yet USA has the largest Latvian expatriate community in the World. Patriotic and/or culturalIn comparison, appeal to return Finland’s to the Latvian population homeland is has of little been or increasing no practical attraction with anto influx Latvian expatriatesof an average 9,000living wellimmigrants in cash-based annually societies during abroad. The the overlay 22 years of this between peculiar immigration 1990 and outcome 2012. is The the everFinnish- present ethno-centric imperative of “preserving Latvia for pur laine10 Latvians”. Such a type of sentiment is populationnotably ubiquitous has increased in many contemporary steadily, communities in view of throughout declining Europe low and crude elsewhere. birth rate exceeding stabilized death rate by a small margin. Table 3 illustrates the comparative movement ofIn migrants. comparison, According Finland’s population to the has Finnish been increasing Red Cross with an (2010), influx of the an averagemajority 9,000 of immigrants immigrants annually during the 22 years between 1990 and 2012. The Finnish population has increased steadily, in acceptedview of declining by Finland low crude is birthfrom rate Estonia exceeding and stabilized Russia, death at rate about by a smallthe same margin. proportion. Table 3 illustrates the comparative movement of migrants. According to the Finnish Red Cross (2010), the majority of immigrants accepted by Finland are from Estonia and Russia, at about the same proportion. Table 3. Net migration comparison between Latvia and Finland

Table 3. Net migration comparison between Latvia and Finland

Resident population 1990 2012 Estimated cumulative population change due to migration, in 22 years Latvia 2,668,140 2,044,813 -397,167 (~18,000 emigrated annually) Finland 4,998,476 5,426,674 +196,415 (~9,000 immigrated annually) Source: Adapted from CSB (2014) data; Statistics Finland (2014) data Source: Adapted from CSB (2014) data; Statistics Finland (2014) data

The strategy of “stopping all emigration” alone does not provide sufficient reversal in population decline. Figure 13 shows that that the Estonian population continues to decline even though net migration has been zero for nearly a decade. The underlying issue is that the high death rate originating in the 1990s has yet to Thebe re strategyversed in Es oftonia “stopping, in view of theall generally emigration” declining alone birth rate does(cf. Figurenot provide 5). sufficient reversal in population decline. Figure 13 shows that that the Estonian population continues to declineFigure 1 3.evenContinued though decline net ofmigration the Estonia populationhas been zero for nearly a decade. The underlying issue is1,600,000 that the high death rate originating in the 1990sNet m igrationhas yet to be reversed10000 in Estonia, in view of the generally declining birth rate (cf. Figure 5). 1,500,000 0 n o i a t i a

n EU (2010) projection r

o 1,400,000 -10000 g t i s E m t - e n

1,300,000 -20000 n o i t Population d a e l t u a p

o 1,200,000 -30000 m i P t s E 1,100,000 -40000

1,000,000 -50000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Source: Statistics Estonia (2014) data January 14, 2016 16 AK40183W22 emigrated during the 1940 voluntary exodus (via Germany) would seek to return to re-settle in Latvia. Too much time and distance had transpired. In fact, very few the 1940-exodus group had actually returned to settle in Latvia permanently since the restoration of the Latvian Republic in 1990. For example, the number of USA citizens residing in Latvia has ranged only between 200 and 300 in each year between 1996 and 20139 (CSB 2014) and yet USA has the largest Latvian expatriate community in the World. Patriotic and/or cultural appeal to return to the Latvian homeland is of little or no practical attraction to Latvian expatriates living well in cash-based societies abroad. The overlay of this peculiar immigration outcome is the ever- present ethno-centric imperative of “preserving Latvia for pur laine10 Latvians”. Such a type of sentiment is notably ubiquitous in many contemporary communities throughout Europe and elsewhere.

In comparison, Finland’s population has been increasing with an influx of an average 9,000 immigrants annually during the 22 years between 1990 and 2012. The Finnish population has increased steadily, in view of declining low crude birth rate exceeding stabilized death rate by a small margin. Table 3 illustrates the comparative movement of migrants. According to the Finnish Red Cross (2010), the majority of immigrants accepted by Finland are from Estonia and Russia, at about the same proportion.

Table 3. Net migration comparison between Latvia and Finland

The116 strategy of “stopping all emigration” alone does not provide sufficient reversal in population decline. Figure 13 shows that that the Estonian population continues to decline even though net migration has been zero for nearly a decade. The underlying issue is that the high death rate originating in the 1990s has yet to be reFigureversed in 13 Estonia. Continued, in view of the decline generally of declining the Estonia birth rate population(cf. Figure 5). Figure 13. Continued decline of the Estonia population

1,600,000 Net migration 10000

1,500,000 0 n o i a t i a

n EU (2010) projection r

o 1,400,000 -10000 g t i s E m t - e n

1,300,000 -20000 n o i t Population d a e l t u a p

o 1,200,000 -30000 m i P t s E 1,100,000 -40000

1,000,000 -50000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Source: Statistics Estonia (2014) data Source: Statistics Estonia (2014) data

Enhancing birth rate is a slow uncertain process of which the outcome is difficult to predict reliably or to realize practically, especially in industrialized countries. Indeed increasing the birth rate is very complex as it embodies many elements which could not be fostered by government financial economic incentives alone. See, for example, the sole objective of the very aggressive pro-birth policy of the Government of Singapore has remained largely unfulfilled since its promulgation in 1984 (Wong and Yeoh, 2003; Webb, 2006). In a study of 8 Eastern European states, Leasure (1992) had hypothesized the growth of personal autonomy (i.e., increased personal control over economic and reproductive life) to be the factor responsible the decline in fertility. Other confounding factors of family formation include personal adaptation of instant hedonistic lifestyle and accu- mulation of ostentatious financial wealth, both of which are increasingly prevalent in contemporary “western culture”. It follows that the classical method characterization of determinants of birth rate (syn., fecundity rate) such as that described by Heleniak (2010: 91) or the Two-Sex Model (Caswell 1989: Chapter 10) may be very problematic. The breeding behaviour of contemporary humans is unlike that of other animals. Although the problem of ageing population (in the context of low birth rate) is outside the scope of the present study, some cursory comments are nevertheless pertinent in the framework of altering the demographic situation. For example, the undesired ageing of the population (arising from low birth rate) could however be fixed decisively by the method suggested by the Japanese Finance Minster in early 2013: ”….Country should let old people hurry up and die” (Bennett-Smith, 2013). Alternatively, continuing economic support for the ageing population (with preservation of the prevailing culture) could be sustained by implementing a purposeful system of importing migrant 117 workers only to fill available jobs in manufacturing, heath care, sanitation services, etc. As in the case of Abu Dhabi, Canada, Dubai, Hong Kong, Singapore and many other economically-wealthy countries, curtailment of basic human rights of (young) migrant workers would be strictly enforced. For example, wages of migrant workers could set “legally” low, no citizenship would ever be granted to migrant workers, and pregnancy among female migrant workers would be strictly prohibited (see, for example, Batty, 2013; Chonghaile, 2014; Gibson, 2014; Falconer and Kelly, 2015). As an efficient means to reduce welfare costs, Germany has been exporting its sick and elderly citizens to care homes in lower-cost Hungary and other Eastern European states (Connolly, 2012). For reasons of professed moral ethics, these example draconic approaches to solve the demographic problem of ageing population are rarely discussed openly. In the case of Latvia, a possible remedy must be an aggressive coordinated re- population program which prioritizes these three essential elements:

1. Repair the failures of the current modality of national health care. Improvements should include significant State assistance to provide better nutrition and adequately- heated housing, among other things, for the population at large. As a means to reduce the national death rate (arising from all causes), the health and health care could be rectified readily by government fiat with appropriate funding. Certainly, access to better nutrition as exemplified by improved food affordability, and better housing with adequate heating during the colder months would be vital for the preventive health care of citizens. The outcome would lead to a substantial reduction in high premature death rate which in turn could provide significant almost instant gain in population count. In reference to the remarks given previously, improving health care does not necessarily require higher expenditure as in the case of Cuba where full-spectrum high quality health care is available unconditionally for all.

2. Create higher paying jobs in Latvia to entice prospective young emigrants to stay in Latvia. Appeal to national pride or national salvation only has a limited effect. Strazds has commented that emigration could be stopped by increasing the income to 70% of the EU average (Anon. 2013e). It is important to consider that reduction in emigration could not be achieved by just raising the income level alone. The economy could only be re-balanced if there was a concerted program to build a new style industrial base, in view of the historical sparse population density, highly educated work force, and abundance of natural resources. See, for example, community-scale development projects to create enduring jobs as described previously by Wong (2013).

3. Aim to repatriate, for example, about 4,000 Latvian émigrés per year for 8 years. This inflow would be equivalent to about 25% of the 20,469 net emigrants departed from Latvia annually during the past 8 years, i.e., from 2004 to 2012. This program 118

Januaryof return 14, 2016 could be achieved only if there18 were new higher-payingAK40183W meaningful22 jobs available in Latvia. It is noted that there are appreciable repatriation uncertainties such3. Aim as tothere patriateparticipating, for example, age aboutgroup 4,000 andLatvian eventual émigrés propensityper year for for8 yearsfamily. This formation. inflow would be equivalent to about 25% of the 20,469 net emigrants departed from Latvia annually during the past 8 years, i.e., from 2004 to 2012. This program of return could be achieved only if The projectedthere were outcomenew higher of-paying four meaningfulbasic rectificationjobs available strategies in Latvia. Itisnotedthatthereare was constructed on the basis ofapp assumptionsreciable repatriation given uncertainties in Table such4. It as is the recognized participating ageapplication group and eventual of simple propensity historic for family formation. percentages does not guaranteed a desired future outcome. Nevertheless, the present approachThe projected provides outcome some of four practicalbasic rectification guidelines strategies aboutwas constructedthe future on course the bas isof of action assumptions required given in Table 4. It is recognized application of simple historic percentages does not guaranteed a desired tofuture rectify outcome. the presentNevertheless, demographic the present approach crisis. provides some practical guidelines about the future course of action required to rectify the present demographic crisis. Table 4. Assumptions used in the remedial scenarios evaluated Table 4. Assumptions used in the remedial scenarios evaluated

2013 to 2020 inclusive Scenario Crude birth rate Death rate Apparent net migration 1 Constant 0.97% of Constant 1.42% of Constant -0.98% of population; population; same as in population; same as in 2012 same as in 2012 2012 2 Constant 0.97% of Constant 1.42% of Set to zero population; same as in population; same as in 2012 2012 3 Constant 0.97% of Set to constant 0.95% of Set to zero population; same as in population; same as the 2012 2012 level of Finland 4 Constant 0.97% of Set to constant 0.95% of Set to nominal +5,000 per year for population; same as in population; same as the 8 years* 2012 2012 level of Finland * set arbitrarily to be equivalent to about 25% of the 20,469 net emigrants departed from * setLatvia arbitrarily annually to inbe the equivalent 8 years since to about EU accession, 25% of i.e.,the 20,469 from 2004 net to emigrants 2012. departed from Latvia annually in the 8 years since EU accession, i.e., from 2004 to 2012.

The “Scenario 1” population estimate for 2020 given in Figure 14 is about 100,000 higher than the 1.7 Themillion “Scenariosuggested by1” Kazpopulationāks (2012). estimate By stopping for all emigration2020 given and noint Figureaddressing 14the ishigh aboutdeath 100,000 rate higherissue as than per “Scenariothe 1.7 million 2” would suggested be effective byonly Kazāksin arresting (2012). the populationBy stopping decline allmoderately emigration. In and “Scenario 3” in which the death rate was re-set to the same level of that of Finland in 2012, i.e., 0.95% of notpopulation addressing and zero the net highemigration, death the rate decline issue in as population per “Scenario could be stopp 2” ed.would Coincidentally, be effective the death only in arrestingrate of 0.95% the ofpopulation population in decline Finland inmoderately. 2012 is numerically In “Scenario similar to 3” the incrude which birth therate death of 0.97% rateof was Latvian population in 2012. If all three points of the proposed remedial program could be realized re-setsuccessfully, to the“ Scenariosame level 4” would of bethatthe of best Finland practicable inapproach 2012, toi.e., re- populate0.95% Latviaof population. There would and be a zero netsmall emigration, rise in the population the decline over thein population short term of thecould next be 8 yearsstopped., without Coincidentally, inclusion of the possible the death positive effect of higher birth rate among young repatriates. Larger net re-immigration (of recent émigrés) ratewould of be0.95% desirable, of subjectpopulation to the logistical in Finlandre-settlement in 2012capacity is numerically of the State. Itsimilar is interesting to the to notecrudethat birth ratethe EofU 0.97% projection ofof Latvian Latvian population populationas shown in 2012. in Figure If all 14 threewas already points incorrect of the when proposed the projection remedial was first published in 2010. It appears that the European Commission did not consider the impact of programemigration could adequately bein realized this instance successfully,. “Scenario 4” would be the best practicable approach to re-populate Latvia. There would be a small rise in the population over the short term of the next 8 years, without inclusion of the possible positive effect of higher birth rate among young repatriates. Larger net re-immigration (of recent émigrés) would be desirable, subject to the logistical re-settlement capacity of the State. It is interesting to note that the EU projection of Latvian population as shown in Figure 14 was already incorrect when the projection was first published in 2010. It appears that the European Commission did not consider the impact of emigration adequately in this instance. 119

Figure 14. Forecasted outcome of different remedial scenarios

* See Table 3 for additional details

Concluding remarks The observed chaos arising from the 1990-1995 transition from the Latvian Soviet So- cialist Republic to the Republic of Latvia has undoubtedly impacted the society to cause a continuing decline in population. In particular, the collapse of the State-sponsored social welfare, health care and economic structure has manifested in accelerated decline crude birth rate, substantial increase in death rate and mass emigration from Latvia. Aside from the Latvian situation, large post-1990 gap between lower crude birth rate and higher death rate was also found to be present in other former “Soviet states”, viz., Estonia, Lithuania, Belarus, Russian Federation and Ukraine which are experiencing 120 substantial decline in national population. The conclusion is similar if absolute number, instead of rate, of crude births and deaths was considered. It is recognized that births, deaths and emigration (or immigration) are interdependent from an age profile viewpoint. For example, mass emigration of young people would ultimately cause a decline in number of births in future years. In the present projection, the Latvian population will continue its precipitous rapid decline over the next few decades if the underlying causes were not remedied. There is an urgent need for the Latvian State to act in a timely fashion with adequate cash input. The suggested 3-point program might comprise of improvement in health care (including nutrition and housing), creation of new higher paying jobs to entice Latvi- ans to stay in their homeland, and repatriation of recently-emigrated Latvians from the wealthy EU states such as the UK and Germany. It is noted that some of these Latvian State interventions may be contrary to existing EU rules and regulations pertaining to, among other things, State aids. But the Latvian demographic crisis is a present and real danger, which warrants extraordinary remedial measures. Indeed special emergency funding should be allocated from the European Commission to undertake these urgent remedial tasks. Perhaps in the end, it might be reduced to a choice of defying the Eu- ropean Union and saving the Latvian nation. If no action is taken soon, there may be insufficient Latvians left to save the Latvian nation.

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1 European Union at 27 member states 2 The invasion was completed in mid-1941. 3 For example, in an epidemiological study of coronary heart disease mortality (CHD) rate in Europe, Wong (2008) had intimated that France may have manipulated the mid-1980 CHD data surreptitiously for the national promotion of the “French Paradox”, i.e., for the purpose of boosting the foreign sale and consumption of (French) red wine for better human health. 4 By law, French population census is not permitted to collect information on race or ethnicity. The exact figure is largely unknown. See, for example, Amiraux and Simon (2006). 5 Morally sinful, thus prohibited in Islamic jurisprudence. 6 Qur’an, Sūra 4 (An-Nisā), ayat 29: …..nor kill (destroy) yourselves: for verify Allah hath been to you most Merciful. (The Holy Qur’an, translated from Arabic to English by Abdullah Yusuf Ali, 1934). The prohibition of suicide has also been recorded in statements of hadith (reported deeds and sayings of the Prophet Muhammad made during his life time). 7 Non-citizens are those persons who have been refused citizenship by the Latvian state because of the lack of Latvian language proficiency. 8 The last year before the new 2012 Dual Citizenship Law comes into effect. 9 Pur laine, n. (in Quebec) a person belonging to a long-established family of French descent [French, literally: pure wool]…….…Collins English Dictionary, 2003.