MOZAMBIQUE Bi-Weekly Summary 16 October 2017

Executive Summary Mozambique Bi-Weekly Summary

Summary

 For the period of 1 to 15 October 2017, there were 46 critical incidents in Mozambique, resulting in 63 deaths and 112 TABLE OF CONTENTS arrests. The share of Human & Social-related incidents was 28.26%, followed by criminality with 19.57%. Executive Summary 2  The first half of October 2017 was a particularly challenging period for Mozambique, with a new security risk emerging Significant Events 3 from home-grown terrorism unrelated to the RENAMO rebel Political & General 4 group. Nineteen people were killed on 5 October in attacks Security 7 by a domestic Islamist militant group based in Cabo Delgado, with most of those killed being the attackers. Four policemen Economy 9 have also been killed in a string of attacks on police stations in Outlook 12 a small town in the north of the country. Dozens were Forecast of Events 2017 13 arrested and authorities continue to analyze and investigate the incident. About Constellis 14

 Regarding the security environment, border guards on the Mozambican side of Lake Malawi confronted a group of their Malawian counterparts on 5 October, after the Malawians allegedly raided a camp of Mozambican fishermen and fired shots in the air. The Malawians were repelled back to Malawi. Authorities did not report any casualty figures.

 On the political front, Filipe Nyusi was re-elected president of FRELIMO, and is now standing for re-election as President of the Republic in 2019. Nyusi will square off with RENAMO opposition party leader Afonso Dhlakama as campaigning for the presidential elections heats up.

 Unidentified gunmen shot and killed Mahamadou Amurrane, the mayor of Nampula city, the country’s third largest city on Wednesday, 5 October. Residents of Nampula took to the streets to protest, and police used rubber bullets and teargas to prevent rioting. Meanwhile, an unidentified gang broke into the Gaza headquarters of the opposition party, the Democratic Party of Mozambique (MDM) on 6 October and set it on fire.

 Moderate to high-risk flooding is predicted to hit Mozambique in the first quarter of 2018, particularly affecting parts of the south, central and northern provinces. In Maputo province alone, more than 42,000 people could be affected by natural disasters during the rainy season just starting.

 Police in Tete have confirmed twelve deaths in an accident involving a minibus in the district of Tsangano. Eleven of the victims were Malawian migrants traveling toward South Africa.

 A one-year-old albino boy was abducted from his village in Mecanhelas district, Niassa on 10 October. Mozambican police said they detained an individual who may be implicated in the crime.

 The Mozambican police admitted killing four people on 2 October when they opened fire on rioters in the town of Mandimba, in Niassa. The crowd had marched to the district police command to demand an explanation for the murder of a man who made his living out of informal currency trading.

 The Mozambican government will run a $1.26 billion deficit next year. It hopes to borrow $300 million more domestically and $700 million more externally, with foreign aid of $340 million expected to fill the remaining gap. The government formally admitted that the debt in 2016 was 102% of GDP.

Significant Events: 1 - 15 October 2017 Mozambique Bi-Weekly Summary

Lake Malawi: 5 October 2017: Mozambique border guards clashed with Malawi agents over fishing rights. Nampula: 10 October Cabo Delgado: 5 October 2017: 2017: 109 cases of chol- Nineteen killed in armed clashes era in Memba, outbreak with Islamist extremists in “under control” says gov- Mocímboa. ernment.

Cabo Delgado: 8 October 2017: Po- lice restore order in Mocímboa da Praia, following attacks by suspected Islamic extremists conducted on 5 October. 52 arrested.

Niassa: 2 October 2017: Four protesters killed by Nampula: 5-6 October 2017: police in Niassa riots. Nampula Mayor murdered, leading to violent protests re- pressed by police. Four protesters killed. Nampula: 10 October 2017: One-year-old albino Tete: 8 October 2017: boy kidnapped in Maico. Eleven illegal immigrants from Malawi killed in road accident in Tete. Nampula: 9 October 2017: 10 police officers charged of extortion in Nampula.

Manica: 10 October 2017: Bad weather leaves one dead and destruction in Chimoio. Gaza: 6 October 2017: Police found three burnt bodies in Chizavane.

Political & General Mozambique Bi-Weekly Summary

Filipe Nyusi re-elected president of FRELIMO, to stand for re-election in 2019 The Liberation Front of Mozambique (FRELIMO) President Filipe Nyusi was re-elected with 99.72 percent of a total of 2,115 delegates voting on the fourth day of the 11th Congress of the ruling party in Mozambique, which started on Tuesday, 25 September. His re-election as FRELIMO leader means that Filipe Nyusi, who is the current President of the Republic, will be the candidate of the ruling party to the presidential elections Mayor of Nampula City, Mahamadou Amurrane, murdered, prompting of 2019, having competed and won civil unrest in the region (Photo: cmNampula.gov.mz) the 2014 presidential elections. Of the total 2,115 votes counted, five police, the mayor was shot three out any role from the head of were blank and one was times as he left his private MDM, Daviz Simango, who he said considered null. Nyusi’s reelection residence where he had been does not have the capacity to set is a sign that Mozambique is working with contractors. up a death squad and kill the looking for continuity in its efforts mayor. to end the state of conflict Amurrane’s MDM party had won involving the government and the Nampula city and three of the Dhlakama believes the killers are RENAMO rebel group. RENAMO nation’s four largest cities in local linked to the police and ‘political opposition party leader Afonso elections in 2014. Amurrane, a powers’, and suspects that the Dhlakama will be Nyusi’s political known anti-corruption crusader, squads took advantage of the crisis opponent as the two square-off had been using private security between Mahamadou Amurrane after years of fighting between after dismissing officers assigned to and his party. him by the state. Since his election government forces and RENAMO Speaking to German news agency as mayor of Nampula, Amurrane supporters following the disputed DW, Dhlakama said "We have has embarked on a quest to root election three years ago. already become accustomed in this out corruption in the city’s Nampula: Nampula mayor country to seeing death squads administration and revitalise public murdered, protests erupt assassinate people like António infrastructure. Unidentified gunmen have shot Siba-Siba Macuácua, Carlos and killed Mahamadou Amurrane, RENAMO leader accuses Cardoso, Gilles Cistac, Jeremiah the mayor of Nampula city, in “squads" and Mozambican Pondeca and many others, even Mozambique’s northern province police of having assassinated members of FRELIMO and of Nampula on Wednesday, 5 Amurane RENAMO, but to this day, the state October. In response to the The RENAMO leader, Afonso has been unable to identify the apparent assassination, people in Dhlakama, said he suspects that culprits." Dhlakama blames Nampula, Mozambique’s third squads tied to powerful elites "people connected to the police of biggest city, took to the streets to would have taken advantage of the the Republic of Mozambique protest and to call for action to be feud between Amurane and his (PRM). In a country with taken, blockading streets and political party, the Democratic functioning institutions, groups of burning tires. According to the Movement of Mozambique thugs appear to be able to shoot, (MDM), to kill him. Dhlakama ruled Commercial in Confidence & Subject to Contract 4 Copyright Constellis 2017. All rights reserved.

Political & General Mozambique Bi-Weekly Summary

kill and then disappear without government comment." Gaza: Opposition party MDM offices in Gaza attacked Vandals broke into the Gaza headquarters of the opposition party MDM on 6 October and set it on fire. Party members are now improvising a meeting place, working in the open as they have been waiting for the police to collect evidence. The arsonists struck at dawn, when the premises Ruling party FRELIMO renews Nyusi’s leadership mandate, paves way for reelection as President (Photo: FRELIMO) were empty. A party spokesman says “The vandals broke the window and entered our facilities. that on the RENAMO side there was part of Mozambique. “I am not Then they gathered all the will not be any weapons fired,” the president of Maputo, but of furniture in the conference room Dhlakama said. Dhlakama did the whole country,” Nyusi said. however demand an agreement on and set it on fire. The flames spread to other rooms and burned the placing of his combatants in Human & Social everything in their path,” The the Defense Forces of Mozambique (FADM), or the country would have spokesman also accused the police Moderate to high-risk of of not following up on the matter. two armies, one the state’s and the other RENAMO’s. flood in Mozambique in The MDM believes that the 1Q2018, Maputo residents ransacking of its headquarters was Sofala: President's visit to at risk politically motivated and intended RENAMO base in Mozambican meteorological to intimidate the party. Gorongosa was kept secret services (INAM) forecast moderate RENAMO chief pledges President of Mozambique and to high risk of flooding between peace but insists on FRELIMO Filipe Nyusi admitted that January-March 2018, particularly in integrating his forces in his visit to the Gorongosa parts of south, central and Mozambican military mountain range to meet RENAMO northern provinces of the country. On Wednesday, 4 October, leader Afonso Dhlakama was Normal to above normal rainfall Mozambique marked the 25th organized in secrecy and without will affect the central regions of anniversary of the country’s informing the provincial secretariat Tete, Zambezia and large parts of General Peace Agreement, with of the party and local government. Manica and Sofala, and normal to Afonso Dhlakama declaring that on Nyusi said he had done so because below normal for Maputo, Gaza, the RENAMO side there would not he feared officials in FRELIMO and Inhambane and north of Cabo be any shooting done. In in government would prevent him Delgado provinces. Mozambican celebrations of the signing in Rome from going, and said the Defense authorities and aid agencies will be of the agreement that put an end and Security Forces, when they working to strengthen their to 16 years of armed conflict in learned of his intention, also emergency preparedness for floods Mozambique, the expectation is initially opposed the idea. Nyusi and cyclones. that the country will never return stated that his trip to Gorongosa In Maputo province alone, more to a war. “Peace has come to stay. was however nothing out of the than 42,000 people could be This is my message to ordinary, as he went as president affected by natural disasters during Mozambicans, to reassure them of Mozambique and Gorongosa the rainy season just starting, the Commercial in Confidence & Subject to Contract 5 Copyright Constellis 2017. All rights reserved.

Political & General Mozambique Bi-Weekly Summary

National Institute for Disaster severe injuries in hospital later. Of other material for treatment, as Management (INGC) says. Risks the dead, only one, the driver, was well as water purifying chemicals include floods, strong winds and Mozambican. The minibus, carrying to distribute among the intense heat. Provincial INGC head nineteen people, three communities to ensure that they for Maputo, Wilson Manhique, Mozambicans and the remaining are drinking clean water. says the figure features in a Malawians, had crossed the border Looking back over the entire year contingency plan that will be of Angónia district en route for since early January, Gujral said presented to Maputo provincial South Africa. Seven of the surviving there had been cholera outbreaks government soon. “We are passengers, five Malawian and two in Nampula, Tete and Maputo city currently finalizing the contingency Mozambican were seriously and province. In total, there had plan for government approval. By injured. been 2,131 cases and five deaths. 2017/2018, we are talking about Tete: Mozambique deports As for other diarrheal diseases, normal rains, which tend to be 88 Malawians from the start of the year until 9 above normal,” Manhique said. Authorities in Mozambican Tete October, 492,152 cases had been Maputo: Over 3,000 illegal province have deported 88 notified, with 198 deaths. This is a migrants deported from Malawian nationals who were on decline on the figures for all of Mozambique their way to South Africa, Malawi 2016, when there had been The spokesperson for immigration officials have 591,693 cases and 306 deaths. Mozambique’s National Migration confirmed. The Malawian nationals As for malaria, between 1 January Service (SENAMI), Cira Fernandes, were traveling to South Africa and 9 October there were says her department repatriated without any traveling document. 5,023,829 notified cases, and 984 3,072 foreign nationals from They say details of those who deaths. The statistics for all of 2016 January to September this year due trafficked them remain unclear are 5,861,416 notified malaria to illegal immigration. Those since the alleged traffickers have cases and 1,230 deaths. Gujral repatriated were found to be already been detained in reported that about 13 million staying in the country illegally or Mozambique on human trafficking mosquito nets have been had lost their Foreign Residents charges. distributed in northern and central Identification Document. Nampula: Government says Mozambique this year under a Fernandes said the highest number cholera outbreak in Memba mass bed net distribution of deportees was recorded in the is “under control”, shares campaign. This campaign has not province of Cabo Delgado where data on other epidemics yet been extended to the southern 2,053 people were repatriated The Mozambican Ministry of provinces. followed by Tete (397) and Health announced on Tuesday, 10 Nampula: Mozambican Nampula (224) immigrants. Most October, that an outbreak of police fires tear gas, rubber of the immigrants are of Tanzanian cholera in Memba district, on the bullets at people protesting nationality numbering 2061, coast of the northern province of followed by Malawians with 302 the murder of Nampula Nampula, is now under control. Mayor and Ethiopians 199. Lorna Gujral, the head of the Police used rubber bullets and tear Tete: Eleven illegal epidemiology department in the gas against protesters in Nampula immigrants from Malawi Health Ministry, said that between on 5 October, after authorities had killed in road accident in August and the first week of banned “illegal demonstrations” Tete October, 109 cases of cholera had over the killing of Nampula Mayor Police in Tete have confirmed been diagnosed in Memba, one of Mahamadou Amurane the day twelve deaths in an accident whom had died. But Gujral prior. “We have witnessed an involving a minibus in the district considers the situation as under attempted illegal march, with of Tsangano. Eleven lost their lives control. She said Nampula province protesters burning tires on the at the scene and the other from has sufficient stocks of serum and streets,” PRM spokesman Inácio Commercial in Confidence & Subject to Contract 6 Copyright Constellis 2017. All rights reserved.

Political & General / Security Mozambique Bi-Weekly Summary

Dina told a press conference in were imprisoned to wait for their main target of the attackers. There Maputo, “but this manifestation passports so that they could travel are no reports of attacks directed was cancelled by the police to South Africa. “We identified a at other state or private because it was illegal”. leader of the operation who acted institutions. Mahamadou Amurane was shot by as the owner of South African Last year a complaint had been a stranger in a pharmacy on the companies,” he said without lodged stating that the Somali- ground floor of his private clarifying whether the alleged Islamic terrorist group, Al-Shabaab, residence in Nampula. Dozens of perpetrator has been detained or was already operating in the people demonstrated near public not. Since the beginning of this northern Mozambican province of buildings, with posters demanding year, the Attorney General’s Office Cabo Delgado, where it conducted justice after the death of the of Mozambique has reported 11 mobilization activities and spread mayor. cases of human trafficking, the propaganda on the mandatory use majority related to labor Gaza: Indefinite teacher of the burqa by all Muslim women. strike in Xai-Xai could exploitation. The complaint was made public in spread nationwide June in the city of Pemba by a A teachers’ strike began in the city Security delegation of the Mozambican of Xai-Xai as a result of the non- Islamic Council in Cabo Delgado, payment of overtime in a dispute Cabo Delgado: Nineteen during Eid-Ul-Fitr celebrations. It dating back to 2015. The strike is killed in attacks by a home- named Pemba and the districts of affecting thousands of students in grown Islamic militant Mocimboa da Praia and Chiúre, as Gaza. More than 7,200 teachers group in Cabo Delgado points where the group was have not received overtime pay in Four policemen have been killed in carrying out its activities. Gaza province. The strike has the a string of attacks on police Nevertheless, this recent attack potential to spread throughout the stations in Mocimboa da Praia, a appears to have been conducted province and could affect small town in northern by a home-grown extremist group thousands of students, some of Mozambique, by a group of with no ties to al-Shabaab. whom have final exams in hooded, armed men who attacked The governor of the northern November. But strong-arm tactics in the early hours of Thursday, 5 Mozambican province of Cabo between teachers and the October 2017. 15 of the gunmen Delgado, Celmira da Silva, has provincial government persist, with were however killed as police described the attackers against the teachers warning that they will not responded. Reports suggest that town of Mocimboa da Praia as go back to work until the arrears gunmen, started shooting Islamist militants, characterizing are paid. The provincial indiscriminately in different parts the situation as “extremely government owes teachers 131 of the town, leaving civilians and frightening”. He added that “We million meticais (equivalent to police officers dead. As a result of need to understand the origin of more than US$2 million) for the attack, Mocímboa da Praia was these groups, who they are, what overtime and second shifts from paralyzed, with many of its their motives are, and where they 2015 to 2017. population fleeing the village to came from.” Residents of Maputo: Police free human- avoid the bloodshed. State Mocimboa da Praia however told trafficking victims institutions were closed in the journalists they had repeatedly The Mozambican police announced subsequent days whilst authorities warned the authorities of the the release of 41 women who were attempted to restore order. presence of an Islamist group in victims of human trafficking More than 50 people have been the district. The independent daily imprisoned in a house in Matola, arrested since the attack, and more newspaper O Pais quoted local Maputo province. The police arrests are likely. residents calling the group by the spokesman, Inácio Dina, said that Despite civilian casualties, the name “Al-Shabaab”. The name the victims from Mozambique police appear to have been the Commercial in Confidence & Subject to Contract 7 Copyright Constellis 2017. All rights reserved.

Security Mozambique Bi-Weekly Summary

does not necessarily confirm any police said the Mozambican people and goods on both short affiliation to the Somali militant authorities are talking with the and long distance routes. group. Malawians about the matter. The In September alone, at least 10 lake border between Malawi and Local residents claim the mayor of traffic and criminal investigation Mozambique is not in dispute – Mocimboa da Praia, Fernando police officers were prosecuted for unlike that between Malawi and Neves, was also aware of the “Al- extortion, some of them caught Tanzania, which is being mediated Shabaab” group long before the red-handed. Criminal and by former Mozambican president attack. Asked by ‘O Pais’ why no disciplinary processes are presently Joaquim Chissano. measures had been taken, he said underway. that when the government Nampula police spokesman identified some foreigners in the Criminality Zacarias Nacute recognized the group who were calling the involvement of its agents in authority of the Mozambican state Maputo: Former Manhica corruption, and asks motorists to into question, they were mayor charged with misuse report officers involved. Speaking repatriated to Tanzania. As for of corrupt practices to Germany's DW, Nacute says borrowing the name of the Somali Alberto Chicuamba, the former “The police are exemplary and very terrorist organization, there are president of the Municipal Council forceful in the face of indiscipline reports that the group also goes by of the town of Manhiça in Maputo and all individuals who are indicted the name “Swahili-Sunah” or “Al- province, has been charged by the in criminal acts, after their Sunah”. Public Ministry with having involvement being proven, are A security source suggests that the misused public funds for his own held criminally and disciplinarily roots of this group lie in the purposes during his time in office, accountable. We need to maintain scholarships offered to from 2003 to 2013. The indictment integrity in the performance of the Mozambicans to study at religious also points to the involvement of police force." some other municipal officials, who schools in Saudi Arabia and Sudan. Gaza: Police find three are also being charged in the The koranic schools where they burnt bodies in Chizavane district court. According to Maputo studied in these countries are Mozambican police found the provincial chief prosecutor Evelina under the influence of wahabbism, bodies of three men in the bush in Gomane, Chicuamba has not yet an ultra-conservative brand of Chizavane, Manjacaze district, been arrested. Islam tied to the Saudi sphere of Gaza province, on Friday, 6 influence. Nampula: Police officers October. They are presumed to Lake Malawi: Mozambique charged of extortion in have been killed by a mob border guards clash with Nampula elsewhere, then brought and Malawi agents over fishing More than 10 police officers have burned in Chizava, according to rights been charged with extortion in police spokesman Edgar Juvane. Border guards on the Mozambican Mozambique’s northern Nampula The victims are from the side of Lake Malawi chased away a province in September alone. neighboring districts of Xai-Xai and group of their Malawian Police recognize the problem and Chidenguele. Police suspect they counterparts on 5 October, after claim to be addressing it. Police had attempted to steal some cattle the Malawians allegedly invaded a corruption has however increased but were caught by members of camp of Mozambican fishermen in Mozambique recently, the public. and fired shots in the air. The particularly in Nampula, say

Mozambican guards eventually motorists who claim to be the caught up with the Malawians, major victims on the province’s roads. Many of them are who explained that they were pursuing the fishermen for having professional drivers transporting violated Malawi’s waters. The Commercial in Confidence & Subject to Contract 8 Copyright Constellis 2017. All rights reserved.

Security / Economy Mozambique Bi-Weekly Summary

Maputo: Three suspects Niassa: One-year-old albino marched to the district police arrested in connection to boy kidnapped in Maico, command to demand an mayor Amurane’s murder, Niassa explanation for a murder the two released A one-year-old albino boy was previous day, of a man who made Mozambique police have abducted by strangers last week his living out of informal currency progressed swiftly in the murder from the village of Maico, trading. His family claimed that the investigation of Mahamadou Mecanhelas district, Niassa, on 10 police were involved in the Amurane. At least three people October. The abduction happened murder. have been detained, two of whom in the night, as the child was Economy were with the deceased at the sleeping next to his mother on the time of the incident. A source balcony of their home. claimed that two of those arrested Mozambican police said they were simply witnesses helping the detained an individual who had police with their enquiries but, in harbored the kidnappers in view of their statements, connection with the incident. suspicions had arisen about them Cases of albino abduction are and they were now being treated frequent in Mecanhelas because as suspects. The relatives of the the region borders Malawi. two detained are outraged with Niassa: Police admit killing this outcome, saying they were four in Mandimba riots in initially identified as witnesses but Niassa had now been accused of The Mozambican police on involvement in the death of their Tuesday, 3 October, admitted that Maputo: Car insurance friend, the president of the four people died the previous day premiums set to rise under municipality. A third detainee is when police opened fire on rioters new rules someone allegedly linked to MDM in the town of Mandimba, in the New regulations require car party. The two men held by police northern province of Niassa. insurance policies to be prepared in Nampula since Tuesday have Spokesperson for the General to pay out a minimum of 3 million since been released. Command of the police, Inacio meticais, up from the current Nampula: Police arrested Dina, claimed the police did not 300,000 meticais requirement over murder of civilian man intend to kill the rioters, but were [from around US$4.887 to A police officer, working as a obliged to open fire to prevent US$48.874 at current exchange member of the Rapid Intervention them from attacking the district rates], meaning a likely rise in Unit (UIR) has been arrested in the police command and seizing the insurance premiums. The 300,000 murder case of an unarmed youth firearms stored there. His metical requirement was instituted who died in Nampula on 28 statements contradict those of the in 2005 and has not kept up with September 28. The victim was Niassa Provincial Police command inflation. The new regulation has allegedly shot dead by the UIR however, which initially claimed yet to be published by the ministry agent in the Aeroporto that no-one had died. In addition of economy and finance. Coupled neighborhood, where the youth to the deaths, seven with the higher import tax on older was picking green mangoes near demonstrators were injured, four cars, it is getting more and more the UIR barracks. In addition to the of them seriously. The angry crowd expensive to own and run a private gunshot wound, the body of the set fire to the house of the district car for the average Mozambican deceased showed bruises, police commander, and in the consumer. suggesting he had been subjected clashes two police cars, seven to ill-treatment. motor-cycles and 12 bicycles were

destroyed. The crowd had

Economy Mozambique Bi-Weekly Summary

Maputo: Public transport to the defense budget and Inflation is expected to fall from company lays off 140 approved by parliament, raising 15.5% this year to 11.9% next year, workers in Matola questions about why Kroll believed and GNP growth should rise to The Matola Municipal Public there was a discrepancy, as stated 5.3% in 2018. Transport Company (ETM) in in the 18 August letter. Council of Ministers spokesperson, Maputo province, has laid off 140 Kroll hired a specialist to value the Ana Comoana, said that workers. The company requires 30 fishing boats, patrol vessels and expectations of donor support million meticais (US$488K or EUR aircraft the loans funded, who were based on donors statements 418K) to pay compensations. ETM found that they may have been that have been “unanimous in administrator, Eliado Jossias, says overpriced by about $700 million. recognizing what has been the the carrier was reducing the Privinvest, the contractor that great worth of the government of workforce to 147 workers as part supplied the equipment, said it Mozambique.” of a cost containment plan. charged similar amounts to other Meanwhile, the Ministry of Maputo: Audit firm Kroll clients. under attack by companies Economics and Finance finally implicated in Mozambique’s It is “strange that the specialist has released the 2016 debt figures, debt default evaluated sophisticated systems in which showed a substantial Three state-owned Mozambican so short a time,” said the lawyers. increase in debt in 2016. Debt companies, whose government- “Likewise, Kroll only presents an jumped to 102% of GDP compared guaranteed debts led the gas-rich assessment that does not include to 73% in 2015. This was partly due nation to default have criticized an intangible assets, such as the to the devaluation of the metical, audit by Kroll that questioned their transfer of technology and but also due to major new loans – actions in the scandal. The intellectual property.” $600 million from abroad and MT companies queried two key Maputo: Mozambique's 19 billion ($260 million) findings by Kroll, including that debt to increase by another domestically. more than $500 million of debt billion dollars amid Maputo: Prices resume remains unexplained, and said the worsening deficit upward increases entire maritime security project The Mozambican government will After three months of successive that the loans funded “was public run a $1.26 billion deficit next year. falls, prices in Maputo are on the from day one,” according to a With continuing reports of the rise again, according to the letter from their lawyers, government not paying its bills, it National Statistics Institute (INE). Alexandre Chivale & Associados, hopes to borrow $300 million more Food and other prices rose 0.04% addressed to Attorney General domestically and $700 million in August compared to July. The Beatriz da Consolação Buchili. The more externally. It hopes the housing, water, electricity, gas and letter, seen by Bloomberg, was foreign aid of $340 million will other fuels sectors played a major verified by the law firm. more than fill the remaining gap. role, contributing approximately Mozambique’s government last Meanwhile, the government 0.11 percentage points (pp). year admitted to the International formally admitted that the debt in Worth noting are the increase in Monetary Fund that it had agreed 2016 was 102% of GDP. The prices of electricity (21.3%), to about $1.4 billion of loans it government plan and budget were gasoline (1.0%), coconut (4.7%), previously did not disclose, approved at a special Council of perfumes (2.4%), gas oil (3.0%) and prompting the Washington-based Ministers meeting on 21 men’s pants (2.2%), contributing to lender to halt financing to the September, brought forward to the total monthly inflation of country. A group of 14 donors avoid the FRELIMO Congress, around 0.29 percentage points. followed suit. which was taking place at the same In terms of accumulated inflation time. The full documents will be The $500 million that Kroll said was per product, the highlight is the submitted to parliament — and unexplained was officially moved rise in the prices of bread, gasoline, only basic details released. Commercial in Confidence & Subject to Contract 10 Copyright Constellis 2017. All rights reserved.

Economy Mozambique Bi-Weekly Summary

restaurants meals, charcoal, The data will allow greater chicken, beer and mobile phones, knowledge of the hydrocarbon

which together contributed 3.73 potential of the Zambezi Delta, percentage points. providing oil and gas companies with the information required to Zambezia: Beef shortage in Quelimane pursue their activities.

Quelimane, the capital of Zambezia This work arises from the second province has been experiencing a public tender for the acquisition of shortage of beef for three weeks geophysical and geological data,

now, the president of the local launched by the INP in 2016. It will abattoir association has provide the INP with a better announced. Quelimane’s abattoirs geological view of the region which

are virtually idle for lack of animals, will be used in future licensing of and the shortage could lead to an oil and gas operators. It will also increase in prices by suppliers. A guarantee the transfer of technical

rise of 20 meticais ($0.33) from knowledge to the INP and other 150 meticais ($2.48) to 170 Mozambican institutions. meticais ($2.6) per kilo is expected.

Official figures released during the visit by President Filipe Nyusi to the province in September

indicated that Zambezia had 43,000 cattle heads. The beef shortage is linked to the drought

that affected the province at the beginning of the year, when farmers lost much of their

livestock.

OIL & GAS FOCUS:

Zambezi Delta seismic study launched Work to collect 3D seismic data in

the Zambezi Delta in central Mozambique will start in mid- October, under an agreement

between the National Petroleum Institute (INP) and the French Compagnie Generale de

Geophysique (CGG). The seismic study will cover an area of 40,000 square kilometers, and CGG has

already mobilized a ship which is expected to start registering the seismic data in the next few days.

Outlook Mozambique Bi-Weekly Summary

Political/Security: er, there is the potential of a worsen- which could worsen living conditions ing environment. going forward. Mozambique’s political outlook calls for stability with the FRELIMO ruling Another case of concern is the ongo- Economy: party maintaining the leadership of ing attacks against Mozambique’s Despite authorities expecting a de- President Nyusi at the top of the par- third biggest party, MDM. The mur- cline in inflation, Mozambican der of the Nampula mayor and ty. The renewal of Nyusi’s leadership households and business are wit- of FRELIMO signals the broad ac- attacks on MDM sites in other re- nessing price increases in the wider ceptance of the President’s road gions are a cause for concern that economy. map for peace and reconciliation opposition parties remain the targets The country relies on the prospects with the RENAMO opposition group, of politicians and lobby groups who of oil and gas exploration to boost its paving the way for a sustained peace may benefit more from an unstable revenues, but with oil prices still low, and a final resolution to the Mozam- Mozambique. revenues are not likely to increase as bican conflict. Social/Human: desired. While the political environment is Mozambique is entering the unstable showing signs of a stabilizing out- rainy season period. Already, emer- look, the emergence of a home- gency agencies are bracing for heavy grown Islamic militant group in the rains, floods and other difficult north of the country adds a new lev- weather conditions that will likely el of uncertainty as to the risk profile lead to population displacements, death and destruction. of the country. It is still too early to assess the past fortnight’s events in In this context, the province of Ma- Cabo Delgado, but a first analysis puto may be one of the most affect- suggests that the incident may be ed regions, and government readi- isolated and not sustainable, consid- ness is not yet guaranteed, consider- ering the demographic profile of the ing the lack of resources and the hes- northern population, and lack of sup- itance of foreign donors to engage their own resources. port to the militants from the general public. The military and the po- Meanwhile, the population is con- lice are also expected to crackdown fronted with a continued rise in the on any remaining militants. Howev- prices of commodities and services, Commercial in Confidence & Subject to Contract 12 Copyright Constellis 2017. All rights reserved.

Forecast of Events 2017-2018 Mozambique Bi-Weekly Summary

DATE EVENT COMMENT

25 Dec. 2017 Family Day– Christmas National Holiday—Widespread business closures.

1 Jan. 2018 New Year’s Day National Holiday—Widespread business closures.

3 Feb. 2018 Heroes’ Day Holiday to honor the soldiers who died in the Mozambican War of Independence against Portugal. 7 Apr. 2018 Women’s Day Public holiday to commemorate anniversary of Josiane Ma- chel's death in 1971. Josiane Machel is remembered for her struggle for the emancipation of African women. 1 May 2018 Worker’s Day Labor day—Widespread business closures.

25 Jun. 2018 Independence Day National Holiday—Widespread business closures.

About Constellis Mozambique Bi-Weekly Summary

Constellis is a leading provider of risk management, protective security, crisis management and enabling support services to governments, international organizations and major corporations across the globe. We specialize in serving the energy, construction, extractives, critical infrastructure, development and national security sectors— assisting our clients in understanding risk and in conducting their operations safely and securely, no matter their location. Constellis takes pride in our strict adherence to an exacting code of ethics and rigorous focus on standards and compliance—reinforcing the pioneering role we play in fostering stability, efficiency and sustainable economic development.

Representing client interests around the world, we maintain operations in more than 25 countries as wellasa global network of strategic and local partners. Connected via our state-of-the-art operations command and control centres, we provide a rapid response capability spanning North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia. Constellis is headquartered in just outside Washington, D.C. in the United States, and possesses regional offices in the UAE, UK, Afghanistan, Iraq, Nigeria and Kenya. The core values underpinning our operating philosophy are the provision of international best practices while conducting all activities with respect for people, cultures and traditions; to uphold the principles of integrity, reliability and trust; to build capacity through knowledge transfer and to strengthen and empower local economies and communities.

Ultimately, our commitment is to prioritize local talent and local suppliers and to develop a profound understanding of the societal, legislative and operational situation ‘on the ground’. This affords us and our clients a unique freedom of movement and enables us to create safe and secure environments in a discrete and sustainable manner.

For more information about Constellis, please visit our website at: www.constellis.com

Constellis’ intelligence analysts and security consultants produce bespoke political and security reports, threat assessments and security risk assessments to inform decisions and to protect people and assets across Mozambique and Africa.

For more information on this report please contact:

James Borrelli Programme Manager

[email protected]

For all enquiries on Constellis’ advi- sory & consulting services please contact:

Mark Allison

Vice President Crisis & Risk Services

[email protected]

www.constellis.com

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