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Potential Offshore Wind Energy Areas in California: an Assessment of Locations, Technology, and Costs Walter Musial, Philipp Beiter, Suzanne Tegen, and Aaron Smith

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Potential Offshore Wind Energy Areas in California: an Assessment of Locations, Technology, and Costs Walter Musial, Philipp Beiter, Suzanne Tegen, and Aaron Smith Potential Offshore Wind Energy Areas in California: An Assessment of Locations, Technology, and Costs Walter Musial, Philipp Beiter, Suzanne Tegen, and Aaron Smith National Renewable Energy Laboratory This report is available from the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management by referencing OCS Study BOEM 2016-074. The report may be downloaded from BOEM’s Recently Completed Environmental Studies –Pacific web page at http://www.boem.gov/Pacific-Completed-Studies/. This study was funded by the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the AlliaAlliancence for Sustainable Energy, LLCLLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. Technical Report NREL/TP-5000-67414 December 2016 Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308 Potential Offshore Wind Energy Areas in California: An Assessment of Locations, Technology, and Costs Walter Musial, Philipp Beiter, Suzanne Tegen and Aaron Smith National Renewable Energy Laboratory Prepared under IAG No. M14PG00038; task number WFHA.1005 This report is available from the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management by referencing OCS Study BOEM 2016-074. The report may be downloaded from BOEM’s Recently Completed Environmental Studies – Pacific webpage at http://www.boem.gov/Pacific-Completed-Studies/ This study was funded by the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Technical Report 15013 Denver West Parkway NREL/TP-5000-67414 Golden, CO 80401 December 2016 330303-275-3000 • www.nrel.gov Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308 NOTICE This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government. Neither the United States government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or any agency thereof. This study was funded by the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Pacific Region, Camarillo, CA, through Interagency Agreement M14PG00038. The report has been technically reviewed by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and it has been approved for publication. The views and conclusions contained in this report are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as representing the opinions or policies of the United States government, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. Available electronically at SciTech Connect http:/www.osti.gov/scitech Available for a processing fee to U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors, in paper, from: U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information P.O. Box 62 Oak Ridge, TN 37831-0062 OSTI http://www.osti.gov Phone: 865.576.8401 Fax: 865.576.5728 Email: [email protected] Available for sale to the public, in paper, from: U.S. Department of Commerce National Technical Information Service 5301 Shawnee Road Alexandria, VA 22312 NTIS http://www.ntis.gov Phone: 800.553.6847 or 703.605.6000 Fax: 703.605.6900 Email: [email protected] Cover Photos by Dennis Schroeder: (left to right) NREL 26173, NREL 18302, NREL 19758, NREL 29642, NREL 19795. NREL prints on paper that contains recycled content. Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank the many people who contributed to the content of this report. In particular, we would like to recognize the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) staff including Joshua Bauer, Caroline Draxl, Jenny Melius, Robin Newmark, Gian Porro, Zach Parker, Billy Roberts, George Scott, and Paul Veers. We would like to thank the following peer reviewers external to NREL: Karen Herrera (Bureau of Ocean Energy Management [BOEM]), Sara Guiltinan (BOEM), Kate Huckelbridge (California Coastal Commission), Jeff Kehne (Magellan Wind), Jean Thurston (BOEM), David Hochschild (California Energy Commission), Andrea Eugster (Statoil), and Aubryn Cooperman (University of California Davis) for their thoughtful reviews, comments, and suggestions. More than 175 comments were submitted by the external reviewers. A record of these comments and their resolution is maintained by NREL. This work was funded by BOEM. For their support, we thank Sara Guiltinan, Doug Boren, Joan Barminski, and Abby Hopper. We would also like to thank Forest Kaser at the California Public Utilities Commission for his support and advice. Editing was provided by Sheri Anstedt (NREL). Any omissions are the sole responsibility of the authors. iv This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications. List of Abbreviations AEP annual energy production BOEM Bureau of Ocean Energy Management BOS balance of system CapEx capital expenditures COD commercial operation date DC direct current EIA Energy Information Administration FCR fixed charge rate FST Floater Sizing Tool GIS geographic information system GW gigawatt GWh gigawatt-hour Hs significant wave height HVAC high-voltage alternating current HVDC high-voltage direct current IEC International Electrotechnical Commission km kilometer kV kilovolt kn knot kN kilonewton kW kilowatt kWh kilowatt-hour LCOE levelized cost of energy m meter mm millimeter MW megawatt MWh megawatt-hour nm nautical mile NPV net present value NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory O&M operation and maintenance OpEx operational expenditures TWh terawatt-hour v This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at www.nrel.gov/publications. Executive Summary In this document, possible offshore wind energy locations in the state of California are examined, reference areas and potential wind plant technologies are selected, and the levelized cost of energy (LCOE)1 between 2015 and 20302 is analyzed. By studying representative technology located at reference wind energy areas, cost and performance characteristics were evaluated. Reference areas were identified as sites that are suitable to represent actual offshore wind projects based on physical site conditions, wind resource quality, known existing site use, and proximity to necessary infrastructure. The intent is to assist decision-making by state utilities, independent system operators, state government officials and policy makers, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, and its key stakeholders. The report is not intended to serve as a prescreening exercise for possible future offshore wind development. This study is based on assumptions and analysis from A Spatial-Economic Cost-Reduction Pathway Analysis for U.S. Offshore Wind Energy Development from 2015–2030 (Beiter et al. 2016), which was written to support the National Offshore Wind Strategy (Gilman et al. 2016). The National Offshore Wind Strategy builds on the previous Wind Vision Study Scenario calling for 86 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind deployed by 2050 in the United States. Under this scenario, 20% (17.2 GW installed capacity) of the nation’s total offshore wind comes from the Pacific coastal states (DOE 2015). Although most of the offshore development activity has been focused in Europe in water depths of 50 meters (m) or less, 96% of California’s offshore resource is located in waters with depths greater than 60 m. These deeper waters will likely require floating wind technology, which is still in a nascent stage of development, but is advancing toward commercialization in both Europe and Asia. The eventual commercialization of floating offshore wind is supported by market indicators such as accelerating deployment, improving cost, and increasing global research and development spending (Beiter et al. 2016). Cost-reduction scenarios point to fixed-bottom and floating wind LCOE benchmarks that may converge within the next decade. These cost reductions may enable floating offshore wind to compete in California electricity markets to help meet state renewable energy targets. In addition, other inherent offshore wind attributes may indirectly add further value to the California economy through reductions in state water consumption (via displaced fossil generation), complementary diurnal load characteristics with solar energy, and reduced transmission constraints due to proximity to dense population centers. Six sites were identified that met the site selection criteria needed to sustain a major commercial offshore wind project. These criteria include: • Annual average wind speeds greater than 7 meters per second
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