Livni wins election victory but Netanyahu to be new prime minister? Israel’s 2009 Knesset elections By Dr. Ralf Hexel, FES Israel, February 13, 2009–02–17

1. On February 10, 2009, early elections were held for Israel’s 18th Knesset. A total of 5,278,895 Israelis with the right to vote were called upon to elect people to fill the 120 seats in their parliament. In all, 65.2% of the eligible population actually cast their votes, 2% up on the last elections. 2. Israel’s political system is unstable. A highly splintered party constellation and a threshold of just 2% of the vote per parliamentary seat lead to frequent changes of government. 3. In the wake of the Gaza war, the election campaign was utterly dominated by the issue of security and the rise of the right-wing populist politician, Avigdor Lieberman. 4. The elections confirmed the right-wing shift in Israeli society. The right-wing/ultra-Orthodox camp won 65 out of the 120 seats. The left-wing parties suffered a dramatic defeat. The Labour Party won just 13 seats, and Meretz 3. The strongest party was the centrist Kadima, with 28 seats, followed by Likud (27), and Yisrael Beitenu (15). 5. The election winner, Kadima’s Tsipi Livni, will probably not become the new prime minister. Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu has the right-wing camp behind him, and will very likely be charged by Israel’s President, Shimon Peres, to form a government. 6. A number of options are available for the government coalition. The most likely scenario is a center-right government led by Benjamin Netanyahu, which also includes Kadima. 7. Difficult times are ahead for the Middle East peace process, since the victorious right-wing camp rejects concessions to the Palestinians. The Obama Administration will play a key position here, since it supports the two-state solution and wants to help a peace settlement achieve a breakthrough.

1 The elections for the 18th Knesset took governing Kadima Party, failed to form a place on February 10, 2009. A total of new government, new elections had to be 5,278,895 registered voters were called called. upon to vote for the 120 representatives in There are two main reasons for Israel’s the new Israeli parliament. A total of unstable governments. The first is its 3,416,587 votes were cast, corresponding enormously splintered party constellation, a to a turnout of 65.2%. direct expression of the highly During the 2006 elections, the heterogeneous population of Israel, a corresponding figure was 63.2%. county of immigration par excellence. A total of 33 parties or joint lists ran for Parties in Israel are set up not just along election. Twelve of them managed to enter political ideological lines, but also on the parliament. basis of ethnic and religious affiliations, as The political composition of the 18th well as specific group interests (e.g. the Knesset is as follows: Pensioners’ Party). The second reason is a) Center: Kadima (28 seats) the low threshold of just 2%. In the 17th b) Leftist parties: Labour Party, Meretz (16 Knesset, there were a total of eleven seats) parties (originally, twelve). The party with c) Rightist parties: Likud, Yisrael Beitenu, the most seats was Kadima (29). However, National Union, Jewish Home (49 seats) it needed three other parties – Labour (19), d) Religious/ultra-Orthodox parties: Shas, Shas (12), and the Gil Pensioners Party (6) United Torah Judaism (16 seats) – in order to reach the number of seats e) Arab parties: United Arab List, Hadash, needed for a viable coalition. As a result, Balad (11 seats) relatively small parties enjoy disproportionately great political influence, Why were new elections called early ? as well as a major potential to bring Since 1988, no Israeli government has pressure to bear so as to push their managed to serve the whole of its four-year political demands through. term of office. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was forced to resign his position on The election – a yearning for security September 21, 2008 after just two and a and simple answers half years in government, in the wake of Two phenomena determined the elections corruption charges and ongoing police for the 18th Knesset. The first was the investigations. When Foreign Minister Tsipi Israeli armed forces’ Operation Cast Lead, Livni, his successor as chair of the which was waged for 22 days (December

2 27, 2008 through January 17, 2009) Netanyahu. In 1999, Lieberman set up his against Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip. own party, Yisrael Beitenu, which primarily The upshot of this military operation was targets the million or so Israelis who have that after the fighting came to an end, the arrived in Israel from the former Soviet election campaign focused exclusively on Union in the last 20 years. In the 1999 security issues and future Israeli policy elections, he was able to immediately win a toward the Palestinians and Israel’s Arab parliamentary seat. Under Ariel Sharon, he neighbors. While economic and became minister of infrastructure and sociopolitical questions, as well as social transport. For a short while in the Olmert policy topics, played a role prior to the government, he was minister for strategic military operation, by its end they had affairs. practically vanished from the election campaign’s agenda. This was in no way At the beginning of December, in other changed by the worsening global economic words before the beginning of the Gaza crisis, whose effects can already be seen war, Yisrael Beitenu was forecast to win clearly in Israel in the form of a drastically eight seats in the new Knesset. A increasing number of redundancies. The development then began which is a very topic of security became the dominant vivid expression of the shift to the right in theme of the electoral campaign. Israeli public opinion that accompanied the The second phenomenon was the meteoric Gaza war. The overwhelming majority of rise of Avigdor Lieberman , originally from Jewish Israelis had given unlimited support the Soviet Union, chairman of the right- to the military operation in the Gaza Strip wing nationalist Yisrael Beitenu (Israel Our from the very start. When the operation Home) party, previously represented in the was terminated, more than half of them Knesset with 11 representatives. Born in thought this was a mistake and the fighting Kishinev (Moldova) in 1958, Lieberman should have been continued. They connect immigrated to Israel in 1978, and joined the Israel’s 2005 withdrawal from the Gaza Likud Party while studying political science Strip with the experience of Hamas’ firing at the Hebrew University. As a result of his rockets at Israeli territory on a massively friendship with Benjamin Netanyahu, who increasing scale. became the surprise prime minister in Lieberman managed pick up on this 1996, he first became Likud Secretary- atmosphere, characterized by fear and General, and then Director-General of the uncertainty, and to make skilful use of it. Prime Minister's Office under Benjamin After the start of the truce, using pithy,

3 populist slogans he challenged the Israel’s Arab citizens, together with the government and army to continue fighting, land on which they live, would be made and to “finish the business,” i.e. to subject to the Palestinian Authority, while in completely annihilate Hamas. At the same return, Jewish settlements in the West time, he managed to stir up public opinion Bank would be annexed by Israel. What he against the Arabs and the Arab parties in is proposing, in point of fact, is a population Israel by using racist slogans and transfer, resettling Arab citizens – who, accusations. During the war, against the after all, make up 20% of the country’s background of the large number of civilian population – outside Israel. When it comes casualties, Israel’s Arab sector sided to the question of Jerusalem, he is in favor publicly with the Palestinians in the Gaza of dividing the city, i.e. making its Arab Strip, accusing the Israeli army of neighborhoods part of a future Palestinian genocide: whereupon Lieberman accused State. Israel’s Arab citizens of disloyalty toward In Lieberman’s public appearances and their state. Using the slogan, “No political rhetoric, he can be compared with citizenship without loyalty,” he began a European right-wing nationalist populists campaign which embodied the central like Jean-Marie Le Pen and Jörg Haider. message of his electoral campaign. He Like them, he uses feelings of fear and also announced a legislative initiative to discrimination in order to mobilize force the country’s Arab citizens to take an nationalist and racist emotions, so as to oath of loyalty to the State of Israel. direct these against minorities. The fact is Another openly racist electoral slogan of that Israelis have been rendered insecure his campaign was, “Only Lieberman by the nuclear threat from Iran, Hamas’ understands Arabic.” These statements rocket attacks, and the economic crisis. had an immediate impact, because simple They are looking at the future with concern. answers go down well in difficult times of Such feelings are the classical breeding war and crises. ground of rightist thinking. In times of When it comes to dealing with Hamas, crises, people long for a strong man to lead Lieberman rejects any and all dialogue, them, and Lieberman is making use of this and demands the uncompromising use of longing. military force. In the context of the peace For Israel’s political culture, it is disastrous process, he proposes an idea of mutual that none of the country’s leading exchanges of territory with the politicians have unambiguously distanced Palestinians. Under such an arrangement, themselves from Lieberman’s racist-

4 nationalist rhetoric. Netanyahu, Livni, and the occupation policy – he himself speaks Barak have all accepted this with approval, of “administering the West Bank,” since for since they assume that the only way to him this is the only way that security can be successfully put a government together will assured for Israel. His term for this be with Lieberman as kingmaker. approach is “economic peace.” He is At the beginning of December 2008 Likud , offering the Palestinians economic led by ex-premier Benjamin Netanyahu , development without political looked as if it would definitely win the independence or their own State. He has elections, with 35 seats. In just two years in also emphasized that he is not prepared to opposition, Netanyahu had managed to divide Jerusalem. The Golan must also halt Likud’s downhill slide, which began remain Israeli, he contends. With regard to after the Sharon group broke away from it the policies of the present-day government in 2005 and founded Kadima. There was a he has said, “The era of weakness is over. major likelihood that he would return the The Era of Strength is beginning.” party, which in the 17th Knesset had just 12 seats, to its former position in the party After the end of the Gaza war, the situation political fabric. Likud appeared to be changed. Likud’s showings in the polls perfectly poised for the elections. began to drop, and those of Yisrael Beitenu Netanyahu had secured the support of the improved from one week to the next. This Shas Party early on, since in previous growing rightward shift in Israeli society elections the latter had always been the practically occurred as a counter- decisive element in forming a government. movement to the Likud, which had shifted In addition, Likud had shifted further toward towards the center – although only slightly. the center in political terms, so as to secure This led to the Likud losing its rightist itself new sections of the electorate. voters to Lieberman and his aggressive In foreign and defense policy, Netanyahu approach, without gaining voters from the identified Iran as the greatest threat to center, i.e. from Kadima. Only toward the Israel. The main task of a government led end of the electoral campaign did Likud by him would be to eliminate this danger, representatives abandon their reserved he said. As far as the Palestinians were attitude to Lieberman and appeal to rightist concerned, he made it clear that for him, voters, saying that every vote for there was no question of a two-state Lieberman would help to put Kadima in solution and a withdrawal from the power. Two days before the elections, settlements. Netanyahu wishes to continue Likud had slipped to 28 seats, and was just

5 one or two seats only ahead of Kadima. negotiating with the Palestinians without Instead of what had appeared to be a cut- any wish to achieve results of any kind. and-dried election, there was now a neck- With an eye to the Likud, she argued that and-neck race between Likud and Kadima. there could not be a policy of “either peace Foreign Minister Tsipi Livni possesses or security.” As far as the USA is major political capital, which although she concerned, she explicitly stated her did not make this a topic for discussion in willingness to work intensively in close the election campaign, nevertheless plays cooperation with the Obama Administration a key role when it comes to her political on a peace solution for the Middle East. effectiveness. In Israel she is considered a When the Gaza war began, the forecast “clean” politician of integrity, who unlike was that the Labour Party , at the time with many of her colleagues has never been 19 Knesset seats, would only gain nine embroiled in scandal. She is also seats in the new parliament. However, the considered incorruptible. Many people, values went up again while hostilities were especially the young, therefore trust her still under way in Gaza, after the war and see her as a new type of politician. reaching 15 seats. The sole reason for this During the Gaza war she also asserted was the performance of the party’s herself successfully in the leadership troika chairman, Ehud Barak, as defense together with Prime Minister Olmert and minister. He was credited with the army’s Defense Minister Barak. She managed to successful showing in the Gaza Strip, as come off as a strong leader and a politician well as its rehabilitation following the who is also competent when it comes to unsuccessful Lebanon War in 2006. At the security issues. same time, however, the polls showed that people did not trust him to lead the country In her electoral-campaign appearances, as prime minister. Here Benjamin Tsipi Livni stated over and over again that Netanyahu and Tsipi Livni were far ahead in the negotiation process with the of him. Palestinians, she was in favor of political In the election campaign, Ehud Barak dialogue and the two-state solution. She presented himself as an experienced presented herself as a politician who was politician and military leader. For him, dedicated to the peace process. However, security was not just the military variety, at the same time, critics from the left-wing but also the economic and social kind. camp reproached her for her unclear Israel’s enemies must be countered positions on Jerusalem’s future, and for vigorously, he said, while the forces on the

6 Palestinian side who were prepared to a government. When Likud was forecast negotiate could be related to with more early on as being likely to form a coalition, confidence. He promised decisive steps Shas seemed able to play this role once against the threat from Iran, and again. However then, with the Gaza war announced strategic cooperation with the and Lieberman’s rise, the whole system of Obama Administration in bringing about coordinates changed for the election peace in the Middle East. The Arab campaign. Not only did Shas lose lost League’s peace initiative, said Barak, while votes to Lieberman: it also lost its not acceptable on all points, was a good exceptionally important role as kingmaker. start for future negotiations. Matters In the election campaign, which was relating to economic and social policy were completely dominated by defense policy not relevant to it. issues, Shas’ social policy agenda almost The Labour Party directed its election entirely stopped playing a role. In the 2006 campaign against Kadima in particular, elections, the party obtained over half of its since this is where most of its votes had votes from non-Orthodox voters. In a last been lost. Kadima was presented as a attempt to mobilize voters in light of their party lacking an image and outlook of its declining poll results, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, own, and Tsipi Livni as a politician with no the spiritual leader of Shas, attacked experience in defense issues and Lieberman a few days before the elections. incapable of leading the country. Barak did He said that a decision for Lieberman not wish to exclude a coalition with Yisrael meant “giving power to the devil” and Beitenu, although leading parliamentarians supporting a party which supported the in his own party insisted that he do so. A sale of pork and civil marriages. day before the elections, Barak announced that he only wished to be defense minister The Meretz Party had started out in the in a new government if his party were to election campaign with great expectations win around 20 seats. and claims. This joint list with a left-wing In previous years, the Shas Party played a initiative, established in November 2008, fairly central role in Israeli politics as a adopted the approach that it was a new junior partner to make up the numbers for a Social Democratic movement and an majority. The large parties (Likud, Labour alternative to the Labour Party, which – and, since 2005, Kadima) were always according to writer Amos Oz – had forced to rely on the ultra-Orthodox “completed its historic mission.” Meretz Sephardi parties in order to be able to form chairman Haim Oron reproached Tsipi

7 Livni and Ehud Barak with being “Bibi’s wing parties (cf. table on the last page). If tools,” i.e. the stoolpigeons of Likud head we assume that Kadima is a centrist-right- Benjamin Netanyahu, since they really did wing party, then after these elections, the not have a different policy to offer. left-wing Zionist parties, the Labour Party Originally the Gaza military operation was and Meretz, have only 16 seats left. That supported by “The New Movement – means a massive loss of influence for the Meretz,” the list’s official name. As the Left in Israel. Renowned historian Tom number of civilian casualties rose, Meretz Segev has even observed that this means distanced itself from the operation and that the Left has vanished from the political called for its end. However, the original arena in Israel. With 11 seats, the three support proved to be a major strategic Arab parties have managed to maintain mistake, since this meant that by now their position, or to improve it by one seat. Meretz was no longer an alternative to the The Gil Pensioners’ Party, a protest party government’s policy. As a result, its which had seven seats in the previous performance in the polls fell constantly. Knesset, was unable to get into parliament this time round. Election results and political composition of the 18th Knesset With 28 seats, Kadima under its chairperson Tsipi Livni was the largest The right-wing shift in public opinion that party. It primarily garnered the votes of became clear in the weeks leading up to those who supported a continuation of the the elections was confirmed by the election peace process and a settlement with the results. While a majority of Israelis want a Palestinians. It received a large number of settlement with the Palestinians as well as votes from women and young people. And a two-state solution, they no longer trust it received the votes of traditional Meretz the left-wing camp to be able to put this and Labour Party voters, who this time, for into practice. Although the centrist Kadima strategic reasons, gave their votes to party won the elections with 28 seats, Kadima, which seemed to have better nevertheless the right-wing and ultra- prospects, in order to prevent an electoral Orthodox parties under the leadership of victory for Likud and Lieberman’s the Likud (27 seats) managed to increase involvement in government. Election their showing in the 18th Knesset. They pollster Rafi Smith thinks that in this way, it now have a total of 65 parliamentarians, deprived Meretz and the Labour Party of compared with 55 from the centrist-left- about a third of their voters. In addition, by

8 using the slogan “Tsipi or Bibi” just before previous Knesset, and are now the fourth- the elections, it managed to attract a large strongest party only. This is an absolute number of undecided voters. nadir for a party which, as recently as Benjamin Netanyahu made an impressive 1992, under Yitzhak Rabin, still had 44 comeback with Likud. He won an additional parliamentarians. Despite the dramatic 15 seats over the party’s 2006 election defeat, there have not yet been performance, coming a close second with public demands for the party leader, Barak, 27 seats. However, the question is: how, to resign. However, under the party’s within a few short weeks, did he manage to standing orders there must be a new lose what had been thought to be a “dead election for the party leadership within 14 cert”? The party’s highly rightist wing will months of a general election in which the criticize him for having moved too far Labour Party was not asked to form the toward the political center. He was chosen government. As a result, Yitzhak Herzog, above all by those who are against any who to date has been the social affairs arrangement with the Palestinians, minister and the No. 2 on the Labour Party especially in the West Bank settlements. list, has unofficially already announced his The biggest victor in the elections was candidacy. Avigdor Lieberman. His Yisrael Beitenu The Labour Party is now facing the party won 15 seats, making it the third question of whether to go into opposition, biggest party. With his populist and rightist- and from there undertake renewal on the nationalist agenda, he set the tone of the level of both its platform and the individuals elections. His political influence has who make it up, or whether it will take part expanded enormously. This time, many in forming a new government. Despite what traditional Likud voters gave him their vote. Barak said before the elections, he has He has become a kingmaker since, already stated that the voters wanted an depending on what he says about the alliance of Kadima, Likud, and the Labour coalition, he will decide who will form the Party, and thereby indicated his willingness new government and become prime to be involved in a government. However, minister. His voters comprised primarily the leading Labour Party representatives are Russian-speaking immigrants and those against once again entering a government who long for a “strong man.” as junior partners. They wish to go into The biggest losers in the elections are opposition – an approach mindful of the Ehud Barak and the Labour Party. They Likud, which after three years of acting as got just 13 seats, six fewer than in the

9 the opposition, has now managed to more This time, the country’s Arab citizens voted than double its number of seats. exclusively for their own parties (United The outcome of the elections for The New Arab List, Hadash, and Balad). Practically Movement – Meretz came as a shock for none of their votes went this time to the many representatives of the left-wing Zionist parties, compared with 25% as camp. Instead of the seats in double recently as 2006. The Labour Party in figures that it was aiming at, it got just particular used to benefit from the Arab three. Its merger with the recently founded vote. At 51.5%, the Arab turnout was left-wing movement did not attract any clearly lower than that of the Jewish more votes to Meretz – rather the opposite. population. This figure was a result of the The reasons for the debacle were as fact that at first, in protest at the Gaza war follows: 1) what proved to be a major and Lieberman’s anti-Arab campaign, a mistake – the initial support of the Gaza boycott of the election was considered. war; 2) the irrelevance of the movement’s However, overall the low level of interest is own topics to the electoral campaign in an expression of the Arab population’s light of the total dominance of the subject feelings of discrimination. If they were all to of security; and 3) the fact that many turn out to vote, they could constitute a real Meretz voters, by voting for Kadima, factor in the power game. wanted to prevent Netanyahu and The figures prove that in the new Knesset, Lieberman from winning, and had also with 65 seats the rightist-ultra-Orthodox come to consider Tsipi Livni a politically camp has a majority. This means that a more effective representative of the peace majority of Knesset members are camp. Whether Haim Oron will continue as fundamentally opposed to compromises Meretz chairman cannot be foreseen. So with the Palestinians and Israel’s Arab far there have been no demands for his neighbors. As a result, it will be harder to resignation, at least not in public. continue the peace process than in the Together, the two ultra-Orthodox parties – previous Knesset, where the forces which Shas and United Torah Judaism – obtained were prepared to engage in dialogue – 70 16 seats, two fewer than in 2006. They members – were in a clear majority. A also lost votes to Lieberman’s party. Their central question now is whether the greatest support came from Jerusalem, rightward shift in Israel’s political where they garnered 45% of the vote, constellation will be a lasting phenomenon, compared with just 10% in Tel Aviv. and what consequences this has for the Middle East peace process.

10 Government formation scenarios will depend on the candidate who came It is manifestly much easier in Israel to third, Avigdor Lieberman. However, bring about new elections than to put whether he will be able to put his newly governments together. In the last 13 years, won influence into political practice on a there have been new elections six times – long-term basis remains to be seen, since in other words, each government has police investigations into corruption lasted just over two years. Reforming the charges against him were undertaken Israeli system of governance and elections shortly before the elections. According to is therefore an urgent matter. The major Israel’s basic law – the country does not challenges facing Israel – the fundamental have a written constitution – President of decisions relating to the peace process, the State Shimon Peres must consult the dealing with the threat posed by Iran, political parties following the elections, and tackling the global economic crisis which is on the basis of this consultation must already impacting forcefully on Israel – decide which politician he is going to make a strong government capable of entrust with forming the new government. acting absolutely vital. Normally this is the chairperson of the party with the most votes, but this is not The instability of the electoral and obligatory. The President can “choose any governmental system Knesset member whom he think has the If the requisite reforms are not made, then best chances of forming a government.” the instability of the Israeli system of After a maximum of 42 days, the new government will persist after this election government must have been formed. as well. This time too the voters failed to Hence Peres, who also belongs to the make an unambiguous decision. Kadima Kadima party, does not necessarily have to won the elections with just one seat more ask Tsipi Livni, who won the elections, to than the Likud. Both candidates, Tsipi Livni form a government. If on the basis of the and Benjamin Netanyahu, are therefore parties’ recommendations he becomes claiming victory. Livni is using the convinced that Benjamin Netanyahu has a argument that the people chose Kadima, better chance of forming a stable and and hence she will form the next viable cabinet, he can also give him the government. Netanyahu is arguing that task of doing so. with 65 seats, the rightist parties have Three options will be available to Peres achieved a clear majority, and hence he is when he comes to make his decision. He the victor. Who will form the government can ask either Livni or Netanyahu to form a

11 government; or he can require both of them although not particularly likely, would be an to jointly form a “grand coalition” with built alliance between Livni and Yisrael Beitenu. in rotation. This would mean that each of After a first meeting with Lieberman, Livni them would act as head of the government declared that she would support him over for two years. Peres himself has two of his key political goals: allowing civil experience with this model, because in the marriages, and reforming the system of 1980s he concluded such a rotation government (Lieberman wants a agreement with then Likud head Yitzhak presidential system). Since Lieberman, Shamir. Given the close outcome of the who has not so far ruled out making elections, this solution would even suit common cause with Livni, is also not in many voters, because with 55 seats principle opposed to a two-state solution between them, Likud and Kadima have and the division of Jerusalem, theoretically nearly half of the 120 Knesset seats. The there would actually be a basis for the two final election results will probably be parties getting together. Then, however, at announced on February 18. The President least two more parties would be needed for will then begin to consult the parties a functioning government. The Labour represented in the new Knesset. Party? Not likely, since a majority in the Labour Party seems to favor going into A bitter victory for Tsipi Livni? opposition. And given his electoral victory, What are Tsipi Livni’s chances of being the ultra-rightist Lieberman is scarcely asked by President Peres to form a going to help a government with a centrist government? In order to achieve this goal, and a left-wing party achieve a majority. Livni must receive either Netanyahu’s or Despite her victory at the polls, Tsipi Livni Lieberman’s assurance about being clearly only has slim chances of becoming prepared to form a coalition with her. A the new prime minister. A bitter victory if center-left government is out of the she had to go into opposition despite being question because the left-wing camp the victor of the elections. comprises only 55 seats, including the 11 seats of the Arab parties as well, which Benjamin Netanyahu – Loser of the have never been part of a government. elections but prime minister Netanyahu is hardly likely to accept Livni nevertheless? as prime minister, since he sees himself Even if he did not win the elections, and the right-wing camp as the winners of Benjamin Netanyahu clearly has a better the elections. What is more feasible, chance of becoming the new prime

12 minister. He could form a government peace process being able to find a simply with the parties of the right-ultra- common language with the country’s most Orthodox camp and their 65 seats. True, important ally, the USA. as a clever tactician Lieberman has not yet ruled out an alliance with Kadima, but there A center-right coalition with Likud and is a relatively great likelihood that he will Kadima? join forces with his former boss and Against this background, it might be mentor, Netanyahu. Under the latter, he strategically advantageous for Netanyahu would become the vice prime minister and to include Livni, with her openness to receive a major ministry. This would, peace, in the government. In addition, with admittedly, lead to problems with the ultra- her in the coalition, he could restrain the Orthodox Shas party, but representatives parties of his own camp which are right of of the secular Yisrael Beitenu have already Likud and compel them to make indicated that they would be perfectly open concessions. During his first term as prime to a coalition with Shas. If these two parties minister he experienced the meaning of were to reach agreement – and in the past making one’s own political fate over- Shas was always pragmatic when it came dependent on religious and ultra-rightist to participating in government – there parties. His invitation to Kadima to enter a should be practically no more insuperable government led by him points clearly in this hurdles for Netanyahu to overcome in direction. He is also prepared to pay a forming a right-wing government. corresponding political price for this. Kadima could get the foreign affairs and However, the question is whether defense ministries. Netanyahu as prime Netanyahu actually wants to have an minister would then rule with Livni as exclusively right-wing government, whether foreign minister and Mofaz as defense this might not over-restrict his political minister in a center-right coalition, which leeway in not just domestic, but especially would also include Avigdor Lieberman’s in foreign and defense policy. This applies Yisrael Beitenu. in particular to cooperation with the Obama Administration, which wants to actively Such a constellation might also be in shape the Middle East peace process and Livni’s interest. Her Kadima party has no advance it “aggressively.” It is hard to experience whatsoever in opposition. Since imagine an Israeli government which is its establishment in 2005, it has always opposed to genuine concessions in the been in the government. There is

13 absolutely no certainty as to whether the immediately after the elections, that the party, which lacks a solid internal footing, voters had decided for a coalition could survive four years in opposition comprising Kadima, Likud, and the Labour without breaking up. Former chief of Party. Ultimately he is aware that Benjamin general staff Shaul Mofaz, hardliner and Netanyahu would very much like to have leader of the party’s right wing, could play him in his cabinet as defense minister. an important role in this decision. While However, a number of his challengers are Livni was declaring that she had no also aware that with its 13 seats, the intention of accepting a right-wing-ultra- Labour Party would not exert any Orthodox government, a highly placed meaningful influence on the new Kadima representative was already making government’s political agenda. They fear a it clear that in the end the party would join further loss of significance and influence for a Likud-led government if that would their party, and therefore prefer to go into secure it the foreign affairs and defense opposition. ministries. Prospects for the peace process Few chances for a national unity Before the elections, Benjamin Netanyahu government said very clearly what his positions were The weekend before the elections, in a poll with regard to the Palestinians and the carried out by the Maariv newspaper, 54% country’s Arab neighbors: no evacuating of Israelis supported the idea of an settlements in the West Bank, no dividing extremely broad coalition. This would be Jerusalem, and no returning the Golan to led by Netanyahu, and at a minimum Syria. comprise Likud, Kadima, and the Labour If, as all the signs would appear to indicate, Party. Although this cannot be ruled out, it he does become the new head of is not very likely that such a national unity government, the peace process, which has government will come about. Netanyahu in any case come to a standstill in the wake himself appears to have a positive attitude of the Gaza war and the failed Annapolis to this constellation, as he has indicated in process, will probably become even more interviews. However, resistance to a complicated. The relationship with the USA national unity coalition will come primarily will also become more difficult. There is no from the Labour Party. True, party leader doubt that President Obama will not refrain Barak did intimate his agreement to such permanently from criticizing an Israeli an arrangement when he declared, government which is unwilling to make

14 concessions in the peace process. He has to be a breakthrough in the Israeli- already declared that bringing about peace Palestinian process of negotiations. in the Middle East is one of the top Nevertheless, considerable progress might priorities of America’s new foreign policy. be achieved over specific individual issues, The close alliance between Israel and the since he will not be able to entirely evade USA will assuredly remain untouched, but the pressure of the US Administration. In the possibility cannot be ruled out that new addition, in the past he has demonstrated kinds of tensions will develop between a that he is perfectly capable of taking US Administration which wishes to pragmatic decisions. “aggressively” promote the peace process Once the Israeli election results became and an Israeli government pursuing a known, Palestinian President Mahmud different policy. The two partners are also Abbas stated that he would not negotiate pursuing manifestly totally different with an Israeli prime minister who rejected approaches with regard to Iran. While the peace process. The chief Palestinian Netanyahu would prefer to persuade the negotiator, Saeb Erekat, said that Israel US to carry out a military strike against the has “voted for a state of paralysis,” since Iranian nuclear installations, the US the new Israeli government, “irrespective of Administration has already announced that its composition, will not be able to pursue it will be initiating political contacts with Iran the peace process with the Palestinians or in order to resolve the existing conflicts Syria.” And Hamas announced that the through dialogue. electoral success of Livni, Netanyahu, and Another problem is the difficult situation on Lieberman shows that the Zionists have the Palestinian side. The rift between the elected the most radical terrorists. “We are PLO/Fatah and Hamas is still unmended, now dealing with three heads which stand both politically and territorially, making any for radicalism and terror.” The development and all negotiations immensely difficult. vis-à-vis Syria might run counter to that Netanyahu is not prepared to undertake with the Palestinians. The Syrian foreign any talks or contacts whatsoever with minister has already announced that his Hamas, which he wishes to wipe out. He is country is prepared to resume the prepared to open talks with Fatah, with the interrupted indirect talks with the new emphasis on what he calls an “economic Israeli government, and to shift them to peace.” For him, the two-state solution is direct negotiations. The possibility cannot not presently on the political agenda. As a be ruled out that, despite Netanyahu’s result, with Netanyahu there is hardly likely declaration that the Golan must remain

15 Israeli, he might be prepared to reach an cooperation with the USA, the EU, and agreement with Syria. An important partners in the region. While as yet there is argument for such a decision might be that no breakthrough vis-à-vis the Palestinians, by returning the Golan, a wedge would be the government does manage to conclude driven into the Damascus-Teheran axis. a peace with Syria, and to reduce the Because in this way, Israel could achieve a threat from Iran. Experience shows that tangible reduction in the level of threats by right or center-right governments have Iran. The return of the Golan Heights, more political leeway for such decisions conquered in 1967 – in other words, than their left-wing counterparts. exchanging land for peace – would then lead to more security for Israel. Conclusion If there were a right-wing or center-right The elections have clearly illustrated the government in Israel, two scenarios might split situation currently affecting Israel. On be depicted for the peace process: the one hand we see that people wish and hope to live side by side with the The first scenario is a right-wing Palestinians in the setting of a two-state government that is unable to accept the solution. This is embodied in Tsipi Livni’s peace process and – above all in the wake electoral victory. On the other hand there is of pressure from the US Administration – is concrete experience: the withdrawals from prepared to make limited progress only, southern Lebanon (2000) and the Gaza primarily in the area of economic Strip (2005) led to new wars – the 2006 development, with regard to the Lebanon War and the 2009 Gaza war. Palestinians. With regard to Syria, there People are afraid of new threats and of are no substantial improvements. This coming under rocket fire again. The belief scenario is reinforced by the fact that. emerging from this – that a solution cannot because of the unstable balance of power be achieved by politics and dialogue, but in Israel, the government has limited ability only through military strength – has led to only to act. In the best case, the outcome the rise of Avigdor Lieberman and an would be a stalemate. electoral victory by the right-wing camp under Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership. The second scenario is a largely stable To form a stable, viable government out of center-right government, which finally, this situation – a government that through albeit reluctantly, brings itself to make its policies will secure Israel’s existence concessions in the peace process in and achieve a peace in the region which

16 will be acceptable to all parties – is the challenge now facing Israel’s politicians.

Contact: Annette Lohmann, Tel: 030 / 26 935-7423, e-mail: [email protected] Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, International Development Cooperation, Near/Middle East and North Africa Division, Hiroshimastr. 17, 10785 Berlin The downloadable background report and information about the work of the FES in the region can be found at http://www.fes.de/nahost

17 Results of the elections to the 18th Knesset

Party Characteristics Seats 2009 Votes % (chairperson) (2006) Kadima (Forwards) Centrist party founded in 2005 by 28 22.5 Ariel Sharon (29) (Tsipi Livni) Likud Conservative-nationalist 27 21.6 (Cohesion) (Benjamin Netanyahu) (12) Yisrael Beitenu (Israel Right-wing-nationalist party 15 11.7 Our Home) (Avigdor Lieberman) (11) Avoda Social Democratic party 13 9.9 (Labour Party) (Ehud Barak) (19) Shas Ultra-Orthodox party, primarily of 11 8.5 (Sephardi Torah Oriental Jews (12) Guardians) (Eli Yishai) Agudat Israel Ultra-Orthodox, primarily Ashkenazi 5 4.4 (United Torah Jews (6) Judaism) (Ya’acov Litzman) Ra’am – Ta’al Alliance of the Arab Democratic 4 3.4 (United Arab List) Party, the Islamic Party, and Ta’al (4) (Arab Movement for Renewal) (Ibrahim Sarsur) Ha-Ihud Ha-Leumi Radical right-wing party 4 3.3 (National Union) (Yaacov Katz) (-) Hadash (Democratic Alliance under the leadership of the 4 3.3 List for Peace and Israeli Communist Party with (3) Equality) predominantly Arab members (Mohammad Barakeh) The New Movement – Left-wing-liberal 3 3 Meretz (Haim Oron) (5) (Elan) HaBeit HaYehudi Religious-Zionist party, successor to 3 2.9 (The Jewish Home) the National Religious Party (NRP) (5) (Daniel Hershkowitz) Balad (National Radical Arab-National Party 3 2.5 Democratic Alliance) (Jamal Zahalka) (3)

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