Market survey Commercial | Industrial & Logistics
2020/Q1–4 Hamburg and Environs
Hamburg | Sylt | Berlin Commercial | Industrial & Logistics Hamburg and Environs 2020/Q1–4
Key Facts Industrial & Logistics
480,000 m² | +35.2 % year-on-year
51 % | +36.0 pp year-on-year
€6.40/m² | +1.6 % year-on-year
€5.20/m² | +2.0 % year-on-year
4.0 % | -0.5 pp year-on-year pp = percentage point Take-up of space Share of owner-occupiers Premium rent mth (net) Average rent mth (net) (Net) Prime yield
“As the year closed, the classic letting business was still logistics facility and 14,700 m² of administrative offices. In the lagging behind. The statistics for take-up in the rental sector 1st quarter Airbus started work on a 30,600-square-metre ex- show a 21 % decline year on year. Since the pandemic is not tension in Hamburg-Finkenwerder (Am Genter Ufer, Hamburg yet over, many companies have adopted a wait and see at- South); this was the second-largest transaction of the year. titude.” Likewise in the 1st quarter Mickeleit, a forwarding company, Felix Krumreich | Consultant for Industrial & Logistics signed the biggest lease of the year, taking 28,400 m² of space at Altenwerder Kirchtal 1-5 (Hamburg South).
Take-up of space In addition to the nine contracts for large volumes of space, Building starts feature prominently eleven agreements for premises in the 5,001 to 10,000-square- metre range were noted (89,000 m², 19 % of take-up), which By the end of 2020 take-up of space for industrial and logistics translated into a year on year decline of some 28 %. As in the purposes had climbed by 35 % compared with 2019. The take-up result for the year was 480,000 m², mainly due to the activity of owner-occupiers. This group accounted for 51 % of the market in 2020, compared with a modest 15 % the year before. In con- Take-up of space trast, the “classic letting business” (49 %) remained depressed, 2017-2021 | in 000s m² | incl. owner-occupiers contracting by 21 % year on year to 237,600 m². The actual number of contracts concluded in 2020 was almost unchanged, 10-year average (2011–2020): 114 compared with 116 in 2019. ca. 521,300 m²
In 2020 nine agreements were signed for premises offering more than 10,000 m² (2019: 3) thus comprising 53 % (254,000 m²) of the total take-up of space. Six of the nine agreements for space in excess of 10,000 m² were construction starts for owner-oc- Forecast cupiers. It is pure coincidence and a consequence of lengthy lead times that so many owner-occupiers in Hamburg and its en- virons started their building projects in 2020. Breaking ground in the 4th quarter, the biggest construction start of the year was 450 470 355 480 400 the REWE logistics centre located in Henstedt-Ulzburg (North 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 West Environs), designed to provide an 86,500-square-metre Source: Grossmann & Berger GmbH www.grossmann-berger.de | Page 2 Commercial | Industrial & Logistics Hamburg and Environs 2020/Q1–4
Selected top contracts 2020/Q1–4
1. REWE Rudolf-Diesel-Strasse | Henstedt-Ulzburg (Environs North-West) | Construction start | ca. 86,500 m²
2. Airbus Am Genter Ufer | Hamburg South | Construction start | ca. 30,600 m²
3. Omnitrade Handelsgesellschaft Jacobsrade 86 (Extension) | Siek (Environs North-East) | Construction start | ca. 30.550 m²
4. Spedition Mickeleit Am Altenwerder Kirchtal 1-5 | Hamburg South | ca. 28,400 m²
5. Kroop & Co. Transport + Logistik Gottlieb-Daimler-Strasse | Neu Wulmstorf (Environs South-West) | Construction start | ca. 22,500 m²
Take-up of space year before, most agreements were signed for 1,000 m² or less, 2020/Q1–4 | in 000s m² | by size and no. of lettings although the total of 46 in 2020 represented only 5 % of the market (2019: 33 contracts and 6 %). Take-up of space No. of lettings As a result of the big construction project for REWE, North West Environs took a 25 % share of the market, relegating Hamburg South sub-market from the top position (2019: 34 %) to second place (21 %). Overall, there was a pronounced shift of market activity from the city to the environs, where the proportion of total take-up rose from 38 % to 55 %. This was due to the fact that five of the nine high-volume agreements related to sites in the environs. Take-up inside Hamburg’s borders fell from a share of 62 % in 2019 to 45 % in 2020. 46 35 13 11 9
5% 13% 10% 19% 53% Unlike the prior year, market activity was not dominated by 26 61 50 89 254 logistics firms (29 %) but by trading and retail companies which
up to up to up to up to over posted a share of 34 %. These firms could be termed pandemic 1,000 3,000 5,000 10,000 10,001 “winners”. Other firms in the trade/retail sector apart from Source: Grossmann & Berger GmbH REWE, which is constructing a new centre in Henstedt-Ulzburg (see above), were also very active. In the 4th quarter Omni- trade Handelsgesellschaft started work to extend their head- quarters in Siek (Jacobsrade 86, North East Environs) by some Take-up of space 30,550 m²; this development agreement was the third-largest 2020/Q1–4 | by industry of the year. In the immediate vicinity (Jacobsrade 65) food re- tailer Lidl was already engaged in extending its logistics centre by some 10,000 m², a project started in the 3rd quarter. Firms in the manufacturing/industry/crafts & trades sector accounted Other 14% for 23% of take-up, dropping back to third place.
34% Trade There are signs of a slow increase in available space. It is true that the large developments completed in 2020 were either Production/ industry/ B2S constructions (12,200 m² in Bad Oldesloe and 11,400 m² 23% trades+crafts in Kaltenkirchen for Amazon) or built for owner-occupiers (HF Group, 7,700 m² of hall space in Hamburg-Harburg). However, developers are once more undertaking speculative projects such as the 100,000-square-metre “Four Parx Mach 2” logistics park in Hamburg-Wilhelmsburg, now under construction. Logistics 29%
Source: Grossmann & Berger GmbH www.grossmann-berger.de | Page 3 Commercial | Industrial & Logistics Hamburg and Environs 2020/Q1–4
Rents Steady rise
Once again, both prime and average rents rose slightly year on Take-up of space year. The prime rent rose by 2 % to €6.40/m²/month, the av- 2020/Q1–4 | in 000s m² | by rent and no. of lettings erage rent by 2 % to €5.20/m²/month. The average rent for premises within city limits also inched up by 2 % to €5.70/m²/ Take-up of space month, while rates in the environs remained as they were before No. of lettings at €4.90/m²/month.
The gap between the most expensive rental segment (over €5.51/m²/month) and the other categories widened. The largest number of agreements, 47, was signed for space in the top price segment, accounting for some 134,000 m² (28 %). The market shares of properties let at other rates ranged between 3 % and 6 %. 5 8 14 3 47 29 8
5% 5% 3% 2% 6% 25 25 28% 51% 16 11 Investment 27 134 242 Yields under pressure up to up to up to up to over Owner- n/a €4.00 €4.50 €5.00 €5.50 €5.50 occup. In 2020 takeovers and sales of portfolios comprised about 50 % Source: Grossmann & Berger GmbH of the volume of transactions and totalled some €560m. This represents a year on year increase of more than 200 %. The volume of transactions was fairly evenly distributed between Premium and average rent Hamburg (46 %) and the environs (54 %). The biggest trans- 2016–2020/Q4 | in €/m²/mth (net) action was the purchase of a logistics facility at 1. Hafenstrasse in Hamburg-Harburg, which AEW Europe acquired from 6.30 6.40 6.00 Patrizia/Garbe as part of the Roots portfolio. 5.80 5.80 There is still a shortage of larger-sized development sites. Ac- Premium rent cordingly, little buying and selling activity was noted in this 5.20 5.00 5.10 sector. The price of land has risen in tandem. Inside Hamburg 4.80 4.90 city limits land now costs up to €450/m², in the environs up to Average rent €220/m² and in the greater metropolitan area up to €140/m².
In 2020 the coronavirus pandemic served to increase demand for apparently crisis-proof core logistics properties, putting further pressure on prime yields. Consequently, yields slipped 2016/Q4 2017/Q4 2018/Q4 2019/Q4 2020/Q4 by 0.50 percentage points over the course of the year to close Source: Grossmann & Berger GmbH at 4.00 %. Core logistics properties are very much in demand during the pandemic. However, very few properties, especially those not part of a portfolio, are available, so that further yield Prime yields compression is to be expected. 2016–2020/Q4 | (Net) initial yield | in % Outlook Industrial/logistics The market is in wait-and-see mode 4.90 4.60 4.50 Because the pandemic is ongoing and the consequences of the 4.25 4.00 second wave are still unclear, many enterprises continue to Office bide their time. Nevertheless, companies in the e-commerce, 3.30 pharma/medical and food trade have benefited from the 2.90 2.80 2.80 2.80 crisis and could generate more demand for space. Depending 3.30 on the further course of the pandemic, this could total around Commercial 2.90 buildings 2.70 2.70 2.70 400,000 m².
2016/Q4 2017/Q4 2018/Q4 2019/Q4 2020/Q4 Source: Grossmann & Berger GmbH www.grossmann-berger.de | Page 4 Commercial | Industrial & Logistics Hamburg and Environs 2020/Q1–4
ro i ndor Ho n d a n ir n i v rs n
in d Overview of industial/logistics u orn sub-markets Hamburg and Environs21 ad d s o Hors 7 2020/Q1–4 s d d 23 ang n a 1 arms d H ns d burg
s rau i
E ms orn H mding n E m n ors r n a ud
arg id Environs angs d or Eas E r o Qui born o sdor s d Environs inburg mm rsb or s uv ns d orn s ord rs d od ndor 1 rs n msa ings d angs d nb rg oorr g 7 rgs d inn b rg 23 r nsburg
o n Hoisdor ang n orn b Humm s ing n b o sdor ro ansdor Hamburg as E rb or ns ingsb Hamburg u sb n s n s Ha s nb or Eas Ho m i ndor sdor a s d i s ram d Eid s d ro H ing n n d bors oo arms n ro ns ri au s rdor rn a d
iss n Ham d uru o s d E n in r ud dor armb inau ing n ord onndor 1 dor Ho u rg s s armb u sb s rbroo a r n d sdor Harv s d andsb arsb ud Eimsb n n d d Hamburg ors i av o r Ei b ari n a 24 ro ona rn 24 ass burg an n s o b ord baum Ho n s an d Hamm s org ord n au i org Horn i ns d n d i mars n s n us ad ona HH i s d d s ad Hamm r d ind broo Ha n i s s inb ran o n or in rd r in r burgsor rasbroo i broo in n rd r um dd 1 26 o br gg inb ar nb ran o n rd r oor u n d Environs Eas i msburg i rd r ad n n or oorburg and a n rg dor rm ugrab n b rg m Ho is b 25 E bg s Hausbru 7
u ud Hamburg i broo H im d u ou Harburg u and s n rd r urs a u ms or u ngamm 1 Ei ndor u oor i s or s a os ngar n ngamm o ns n ang n nn arms or burg b ir rd r Hamburg E s or ins or Eas ars a Environs rag ou s 261 7 s
i n nb 1 v a Environs 39 r nburg H ms or ins n u ou Eas n ndor 1 arum
nd s or i or u o
39 H id nau Ham d adbru s burg inau ars d
Take-up of space Year-on-year7 Average rent Share No. of Share d ndor Sub-market os d in m² incl. change in €/m²/mth in % lettings g s nin % owner-occupiers in % i r n (net) Hans d ass burg
1 Hamburg West 9,600 2 -45 6 6 n burg 6.50 ar s or 2 Hamburg North-West 5,300 1 -21 6 6 6.50 3 Hamburg North-East 45,600 10 +69 14 12 6.00 4 Hamburg East 54,700 11 +13 21 18 5.50 5 Hamburg South 98,400 21 -18 14 12 5.50 Total Hamburg 213,600 45 -3 62 54 5.70 6 Environs North-West 122,300 25 +109 21 18 5.20 7 Environs North-East 65,800 14 +78 10 9 5.00 8 Environs East 8,200 2 -52 6 6 5.50 9 Environs South-East 7,200 2 -42 4 4 5.50 10 Environs South-West 62,900 13 +511 11 10 4.50 Total Environs 266,400 55 +97 52 46 4.90
Total 480,000 100 +35 114 100 5.20
www.grossmann-berger.de | Page 5 Commercial | Industrial & Logistics Hamburg and Environs 2020/Q1–4
Skilled consultancy Services und contacts From left to right: Felix Krumreich | Fiona Thiel (Assistant) | Nico Beckmann | Christopher Ullrich
What can we do for you? Nico Beckmann | Real estate consultant An analysis of the property markets is an important part of the Phone: +49 (0)40 / 350 80 2 - 530 wide-ranging consultancy services offered by Grossmann & Mail: [email protected] Berger. We would be pleased to be of assistance in your deci- sion-making process and can draft an offer that is tailored to Felix Krumreich | Real estate consultant your specific requirements. Phone: +49 (0)40 / 350 80 2 - 528 Mail: [email protected]
Christopher Ullrich | Real estate consultant Phone: +49 (0)40 / 350 80 2 - 592 Glossary Mail: [email protected] Definitions, industrial/logistics market
Take-up of space: Take-up of space is the total of all space newly let plus that sold Transaction volume: The transaction volume is the sum of the purchase prices of to or built by an owner-occupier during the period under review. The operative date all commercial property sold in Hamburg during the period under review. The date for inclusion in the statistics is the date on which the lease or purchase agreement of signing determines when a transaction is included in the statistics. Buy to let was signed. Lease renewals are not counted as take-up. Areas are stated on the investments in residential properties are not included in the transaction volume. basis of the guide for calculating the rental area in commercial leases (MF/G). Premium rent: The premium rent is that paid for the most expensive 3% of the market for new lets (not counting owner-occupiers) during the 12 months just ended and is stated as the average of such rents. Photo credits: Average rent: The average rent paid is calculated by taking the individual rents Cover, page 2: © shutterstock agreed in all leases signed over the past 12 months, weighting them by the amount We draw your attention to the fact that all statements made here are non-binding. Most of of space rented and computing the mean value. Figures refer to nominal net rents the information is based on third-party reports. The sole intention of this market survey is to ex services. provide general infomation for our clients.
Prime yield: The prime yield is the initial return attainable on a property that has Grossmann & Berger GmbH | Bleichenbrücke 9 (Stadthöfe) | 20354 Hamburg been let on normal market terms (tenants with good credit ratings), has top quality Phone: +49 (0)40 / 350 80 2 - 0 | Fax: +49 (0)40 / 350 80 2 - 36 [email protected] | www.grossmann-berger.de structure and fit-out and stands in one of the very best locations. It is stated as the net initial yield in per cent, i.e. the ratio between the annual rental income less non- Managing directors authorised to represent: Sandra Ludwig, Holger Michaelis, Andreas Rehberg (Speaker), Lars Seidel apportionable ancillary costs and the gross purchase price (net purchase price plus Chairman of the supervisory board: Frank Brockmann land acquisition tax, notary’s fees and agency commission.) Registered office Hamburg • Registered at Hamburg no. B 25866
www.grossmann-berger.de | Page 6