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Masterarbeit MASTERARBEIT Titel der Masterarbeit Solar Energy Potential in China, South Korea and Japan Verfasser Seunghwan Jung angestrebter akademischer Grad Master of Arts (MA) Wien, 2014 Studienkennzahl lt. Studienblatt: A 066 864 Studienrichtung lt. Studienblatt: Masterstudium Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft Ostasiens Betreuer: Prof. Dr. Rüdiger Frank Acknowledgements I would like to acknowledge my supervisor Dr. Rüdiger Frank, for his support and advice with deep insights from the beginning of the master program and my master thesis. I also thank my classmates and ECOS members as I really enjoyed sharing our opinions and spending time together. Especially, I was pleased and felt lucky that I was part of the AKSE conference 2014. I appreciate my family members in Seoul and Vancouver. Without my family member’s patience and understanding, I could not start and finish my studies. 부모님 그리고 정승은, 허세준, 친지분들, 친구들께 감사드립니다. 덕분에 석사과정을 잘 마무리 할 수 있었습니다. 항상 제 의견 존중해주시고, 힘든 일 있을 때 마다 격려해주셔서 감사합니다. I would also like to thank Georg and Maria-Christina Brunauer’s support. Thanks to your technical and general advice and help from the beginning of my paper, this thesis is well finished. I also feel thankful to Gottfried, Günter, Christine, and Michael Fenböck for your warm encouragement. Lastly, but mostly I am very grateful to my wife Marianne Jung, who brought me to Vienna and changed my life. I really appreciate that we can share and discuss about studies as well as matters in our life. Contents 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Research questions & Relevance.................................................................................................. 3 1.2. Theoretical framework and methodology .................................................................................... 4 1.3. Theoretical background - a review of solar energy technology ................................................... 7 2. Empirical Analysis ........................................................................................................................ 9 2.1. Resources (Theoretical potential) ................................................................................................. 9 2.1.1. Solar radiation quantity ....................................................................................................... 10 2.1.1.1. Solar radiation in China ................................................................................................ 11 2.1.1.2. Solar radiation in South Korea ..................................................................................... 14 2.1.1.3. Solar radiation in Japan ................................................................................................ 15 2.1.2. Time of availability (Sunshine duration) ............................................................................. 17 2.1.2.1. Sunshine duration in China .......................................................................................... 17 2.1.2.2. Sunshine duration in South Korea ................................................................................ 18 2.1.2.3. Sunshine duration in Japan ........................................................................................... 20 2.2. Technical potential ..................................................................................................................... 20 2.2.1. Technical potential by provinces’ rooftop space in China .................................................. 21 2.2.2. Technical potential by cities’ building sites in South Korea ............................................... 22 2.2.3. Technical potential by cities’ buildings in Japan ................................................................. 23 2.3. Economic Potential ..................................................................................................................... 23 2.3.1. Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE)................................................................................... 24 2.3.1.1. The LCOE of solar PV in China ................................................................................... 26 2.3.1.2. The LCOE of solar PV in South Korea ........................................................................ 27 2.3.1.3. The LCOE of solar PV in Japan ................................................................................... 29 2.4. Market potential ......................................................................................................................... 30 2.4.1. Overview of the solar energy market .................................................................................. 30 2.4.2. Demand and supply, Market trends ..................................................................................... 34 2.4.2.1. General overview of the energy market ....................................................................... 34 2.4.2.2. Demand, supply and trends in China ............................................................................ 37 2.4.2.3. Demand, supply and trends in South Korea ................................................................. 43 2.4.2.4. Demand, supply and trends in Japan ............................................................................ 51 2.4.3. Energy Prices ....................................................................................................................... 58 2.4.3.1. Energy and electricity prices in China .......................................................................... 58 2.4.3.2. Energy and electricity prices in South Korea ............................................................... 62 2.4.3.3. Energy and electricity prices in Japan .......................................................................... 64 2.4.3.4. Prices of solar energy-related products ........................................................................ 66 2.4.4. Market Players ..................................................................................................................... 68 2.4.4.1. Chinese companies ....................................................................................................... 68 2.4.4.2. South Korean companies .............................................................................................. 72 2.4.4.3. Japanese companies ...................................................................................................... 76 2.4.5. Policy Analysis .................................................................................................................... 78 2.4.5.1. Policy analysis in China ............................................................................................... 79 2.4.5.2. Policy analysis in South Korea ..................................................................................... 87 2.4.5.3. Policy analysis in Japan ................................................................................................ 94 3. Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................... 100 References .......................................................................................................................................... 112 List of figures ..................................................................................................................................... 128 List of tables ....................................................................................................................................... 130 Abbreviations ..................................................................................................................................... 133 Abstract .............................................................................................................................................. 136 Curriculum Vitae .............................................................................................................................. 138 1. Introduction A sustainable development receives attention all over the world. The United Nations World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) defines ‘sustainable development’ as Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (Brundtland Commission, 1987). The principles of sustainable development focus on economic development, social development and environment protection. In his speech at the Austrian Academy of Sciences on March 12, 2014, Jeffrey Sachs stressed that the main strategies for promoting a sustainable development are investing in young people, in sustainable technologies and in deep decarbonization (Sachs, 2014). Energy has played an indispensable role in human-being’s history. It is no exaggeration to say that people cannot live without energy. Energy contributes not only to mankind’s survival but also to economic development. The invention of James Watt’s steam engine by thermal energy to kinetic energy brought forth the industrial revolution and deeply changed peoples’ life style. Due to its significance, energy also plays an essential part in politics causing many wars because of natural resources. In East Asia, the terminology ‘energy security’ is often used among politicians and treated as diplomatic means. The facts that China is the most energy- consuming
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