bioRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.08.21.457232; this version posted August 22, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under aCC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. Eliminating Aedes aegypti from its southern margin in Australia: insights from genomic data and simulation modeling Gordana Rašić1*, Igor Filipović1, Sean L Wu2, Tomás M León2, Jared B Bennett3, Héctor M Sánchez C2, John M Marshall2, Brendan J Trewin4 1 Mosquito Control Laboratory, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, Australia 2 Divisions of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA 3 Biophysics Graduate Group, Division of Biological Sciences, College of Letters and Science, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA 4 CSIRO, Health and Biosecurity, Dutton Park, Brisbane, Australia *Correspondence: Gordana Rašić:
[email protected],
[email protected] Abstract A rare example of a successful long-term elimination of the mosquito Aedes aegypti is in Brisbane, Queensland, where the legislatively-enforced removal of rainwater tanks drove its disappearance by the mid-1950s. However, a decade-long drought led to the mass installation of rainwater tanks throughout the region, re-introducing critical breeding sites for the mosquito’s persistence in this subtropical region. With Ae. aegypti re-invading towns just 150 km north of Brisbane, we examined the potential for their sustained elimination. Through genomic analyses, we estimated historical expansion and current isolation between neighboring populations as close as 15 kilometers.