HungerMapLIVE: insight and key trends By the World Food Programme (WFP) | 5 August 2021

FOOD INSECURITY AT A GLANCE

5.5M 26.3M 1.1M Chronic hunger Population Acute hunger (undernourishment) (INSTAT Census 2018 with a IPC Phase 3+ 2.46% growth rate, 2020) (SOFI Report, 2021)1 (IPC, Apr 2021 - Sep 2021)2

The HungerMapLIVE tracks core indicators of acute hunger in near real-time.

Acute hunger is measured by key indicators such as household food consumption, livelihood behaviors, child nutritional status, mortality, access to clean drinking water and other contextual factors. The HungerMapLIVE primarily tracks trends on household food consumption, consumption-based coping and livelihood changes to track multiple aspects of food insecurity. As these are outcome level 1 indicators in the Integrated Food Security Phase Classifcation (IPC) Framework, they can provide early indications of potential shifts in acute food insecurity.

Insufcient food consumption (HungerMapLIVE data)3 7.1M → 6.8M As of 7 May 2021 As of 5 August 2021

Crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies (HungerMapLIVE data)3 10.3M → 12.3M As of 7 May 2021 As of 5 August 2021

Methodology Note: The HungerMapLIVE includes data from two sources: (1) WFP’s continuous, near real-time monitoring systems, which remotely collect thousands of data daily through live calls conducted by call centres around the world; and (2) machine learning-based predictive models. Therefore, to note this diferentiation, this report indicates whether a region’s data is based on WFP’s near real-time monitoring systems (marked ‘ACTUAL’) or predictive models (marked ‘PREDICTED’).

1 Chronic hunger (undernourishment) is defned by people not able to meet long-term food consumption requirements. Source: FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO. 2021. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2021. 2 Source: IPC/CH analysis (ipcinfo.org) 3 Source: WFP HungerMap LIVE analysis, updated daily. Current food security outlook There are 12 regions considered High Risk or Moderate Risk and Deteriorating in Madagascar

Diana

Sava

Sofia

Boeny

Analanjirofo

Alaotra Mangoro

Analamanga Atsinanana Itasy

Vakinankaratra

Menabe Amoron I Mania

Vatovavy

Haute Matsiatra

Ihorombe

Atsimo Andrefana

Anosy Atsimo Atsinanana

Androy

The HungerMapLIVE divides regions into various tiers of risk based on: the prevalence of insufcient food consumption and the prevalence of households utilizing crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies, as well as the change in these prevalences from 90 days ago (7 May 2021) until now (5 August 2021). Regions are divided into these tiers based on the following criteria:

Tier 1: High Risk and Deteriorating. Regions with more than 40% Tier 2: High Risk and Stable. Regions with more than 40% prevalence for prevalence for the average of the above two indicators AND signifcant the average of the above two indicators AND no signifcant deterioration deterioration observed for the average of both indicators from 90 days observed for the average of both indicators from 90 days ago. ago.

Tier 3: Moderate Risk and Deteriorating. Regions with less than 40% Tier 4: Moderate Risk and Stable. Regions with less than 40% prevalence prevalence for the average of the above two indicators AND signifcant for the average of the above two indicators AND no signifcant deterioration observed for the average of both indicators from 90 days deterioration observed for the average of both indicators from 90 days ago. ago.

Regions marked for deterioration for these metrics must satisfy one of the following conditions: (1) >40% prevalence: 15% increase, (2) 20-40% prevalence: 20% increase, (3) <20% prevalence: 25% increase. HungerMapLIVE: Madagascar insight and key trends 5 August 2021

Regions with the highest prevalence of insufcient food consumption

Currently, the regions with the highest prevalence of insufcient food consumption, in order of severity, are: ACTUAL, ACTUAL, Atsimo Atsinanana ACTUAL, ACTUAL, Atsimo Andrefana ACTUAL, Fitovinany ACTUAL, ACTUAL, ACTUAL, Sofa ACTUAL, Sava ACTUAL, Atsinanana ACTUAL, Amoron I Mania ACTUAL.

These regions account for 69% of the total number of people with insufcient food consumption in Madagascar—amounting to approximately 4.67M people, decreasing by 112k (2.3%) compared to 90 days ago.

PREVALENCE OF INSUFFICIENT FOOD CONSUMPTION TOTAL NO. (HIGH → LOW) POPULATION AFFECTED

Androy ACTUAL 58% 882k 515k

Anosy ACTUAL 46% 807k 369k

Atsimo 39% 1.08M 419k Atsinanana ACTUAL Haute 36% 1.44M 514k Matsiatra ACTUAL Atsimo 35% 1.58M 553k Andrefana ACTUAL Vatovavy 33% 1.70M 563k Fitovinany ACTUAL Analanjirofo ACTUAL 30% 1.24M 378k

Ihorombe ACTUAL 28% 375k 103k

Sofa ACTUAL 26% 1.50M 390k

Sava ACTUAL 26% 1.18M 306k

Atsinanana ACTUAL 25% 1.53M 378k

Amoron I 21% 859k 183k Mania ACTUAL

Trends of the prevalence of insufcient food consumption over the past 90 days These graphs, all on a scale from 0% to 100%, show the trend in the prevalence of insufcient food consumption over the past 90 days. The percentages detailed below the region name indicate the change in the prevalence of insufcient food consumption from 90 days ago to today, with regions sorted by the increase in prevalence of insufcient food consumption.

Analanjirofo ACTUAL Amoron I Atsinanana ACTUAL ACTUAL Atsimo ACTUAL 22% → 30% Mania ACTUAL 22% → 25% 18% → 21% Atsinanana ACTUAL 19% → 19% 18% → 21% 36% → 39%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

Boeny ACTUAL Sofa ACTUAL Vatovavy Alaotra ACTUAL Androy ACTUAL 19% → 19% 26% → 26% Fitovinany ACTUAL Mangoro ACTUAL 18% → 17% 62% → 58% 34% → 33% 15% → 15%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug HungerMapLIVE: Madagascar insight and key trends 5 August 2021

Regions with the highest prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies

To support the global COVID‑19 response, WFP has expanded its near real-time remote monitoring systems to assess the food-based coping situation in Madagascar. The table below shows the current situation in regions with the highest prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies. These regions account for 60% of the total number of people currently monitored for food-based coping in Madagascar—amounting to approximately 7.44M people.

PREVALENCE OF CRISIS OR ABOVE CRISIS LEVEL FOOD-BASED TOTAL NO. COPING STRATEGIES (HIGH → LOW) POPULATION AFFECTED

Androy ACTUAL 82% 882k 721k

Atsimo 71% 1.58M 1.12M Andrefana ACTUAL Anosy ACTUAL 71% 807k 570k

Vatovavy 60% 1.70M 1.02M Fitovinany ACTUAL Menabe ACTUAL 57% 712k 404k

Ihorombe ACTUAL 52% 375k 195k

Haute 51% 1.44M 730k Matsiatra ACTUAL Atsinanana ACTUAL 50% 1.53M 770k

Boeny ACTUAL 48% 961k 464k

Analanjirofo ACTUAL 47% 1.24M 579k

Atsimo 45% 1.08M 487k Atsinanana ACTUAL Amoron I 43% 859k 372k Mania ACTUAL

Trends of the prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies over the past 90 days These graphs, all on a scale from 0% to 100%, show the trend in the prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies over the past 90 days. The percentages detailed below the region name indicate the change in the prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies from 90 days ago to today, with regions sorted by the increase in prevalence of crisis or above crisis level food-based coping strategies.

Atsinanana ACTUAL Analamanga ACTUAL Sava ACTUAL Analanjirofo ACTUAL Menabe ACTUAL Boeny ACTUAL 34% → 50% 29% → 41% 31% → 42% 35% → 47% 43% → 57% 37% → 48%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

Betsiboka ACTUAL Melaky ACTUAL Vatovavy Amoron I Androy ACTUAL Atsimo 30% → 39% 30% → 39% Fitovinany ACTUAL Mania ACTUAL 70% → 82% Andrefana ACTUAL 47% → 60% 35% → 43% 62% → 71%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug HungerMapLIVE: Madagascar insight and key trends 5 August 2021

Regions with the highest prevalence of challenges accessing markets1

To support the global COVID‑19 response, WFP has expanded its near real-time remote monitoring systems to assess the market access situation in Madagascar. The table below shows the current situation in regions with the highest prevalence of challenges accessing markets. These regions account for 55% of the total number of people currently monitored for market access in Madagascar—amounting to approximately 5.12M people.

PREVALENCE OF CHALLENGES ACCESSING MARKETS TOTAL NO. (HIGH → LOW) POPULATION AFFECTED

Androy ACTUAL 46% 882k 406k

Menabe ACTUAL 44% 712k 312k

Atsimo 42% 1.08M 458k Atsinanana ACTUAL Vatovavy 41% 1.70M 703k Fitovinany ACTUAL Anosy ACTUAL 39% 807k 316k

Analanjirofo ACTUAL 38% 1.24M 475k

Itasy ACTUAL 38% 881k 336k

Sava ACTUAL 38% 1.18M 449k

Atsimo 37% 1.58M 584k Andrefana ACTUAL Haute 37% 1.44M 530k Matsiatra ACTUAL Bongolava ACTUAL 37% 550k 202k

Boeny ACTUAL 36% 961k 347k

Trends of the prevalence of challenges accessing markets over the past 90 days These graphs, all on a scale from 0% to 100%, show the trend in the prevalence of challenges accessing markets over the past 90 days. The percentages detailed below the region name indicate the change in the prevalence of challenges accessing markets from 90 days ago to today, with regions sorted by the increase in prevalence of challenges accessing markets.

Analamanga ACTUAL Menabe ACTUAL Diana ACTUAL Melaky ACTUAL Betsiboka ACTUAL Atsimo 21% → 33% 32% → 44% 24% → 31% 23% → 30% 23% → 30% Atsinanana ACTUAL 34% → 42%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

Vatovavy Atsimo Analanjirofo ACTUAL Itasy ACTUAL Androy ACTUAL Atsinanana ACTUAL Fitovinany ACTUAL Andrefana ACTUAL 32% → 38% 33% → 38% 40% → 46% 30% → 35% 33% → 41% 30% → 37%

May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug May Aug

1 Challenges include both physical and fnancial constraints. Annex: Summary of food security and related metrics in Madagascar, 5 August 2021

TOTAL POPULATION OF PEOPLE WITH INSUFFICIENT PEOPLE USING CRISIS OR ABOVE CRISIS LEVEL PEOPLE REPORTING CHALLENGES REFERENCE (MILLIONS) FOOD CONSUMPTION (MILLIONS) FOOD-BASED COPING STRATEGIES (MILLIONS) ACCESSING MARKETS (MILLIONS) Alaotra 1.23 0.18 0.48 0.35 Mangoro ACTUAL Amoron I 0.86 0.18 0.37 0.27 Mania ACTUAL Analamanga ACTUAL 4.02 0.67 1.64 1.32 Analanjirofo ACTUAL 1.24 0.38 0.58 0.48 Androy ACTUAL 0.88 0.51 0.72 0.41 Anosy ACTUAL 0.81 0.37 0.57 0.32 Atsimo 1.58 0.55 1.12 0.58 Andrefana ACTUAL Atsimo 1.08 0.42 0.49 0.46 Atsinanana ACTUAL Atsinanana ACTUAL 1.53 0.38 0.77 0.53 Betsiboka ACTUAL 0.35 0.06 0.14 0.10 Boeny ACTUAL 0.96 0.18 0.46 0.35 Bongolava ACTUAL 0.55 0.09 0.19 0.20 Diana ACTUAL 0.84 0.15 0.27 0.26 Haute 1.44 0.51 0.73 0.53 Matsiatra ACTUAL Ihorombe ACTUAL 0.38 0.10 0.19 0.08 Itasy ACTUAL 0.88 0.17 0.36 0.34 Melaky ACTUAL 0.35 0.06 0.14 0.10 Menabe ACTUAL 0.71 0.15 0.40 0.31 Sava ACTUAL 1.18 0.31 0.50 0.45 Sofa ACTUAL 1.50 0.39 0.42 0.54 Vakinankaratra ACTUAL 2.17 0.42 0.78 0.67 Vatovavy 1.70 0.56 1.02 0.70 Fitovinany ACTUAL