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Ideology Versus Clientelism: Modernization and Electoral Competition in Brazil Cássio Da Silva Muniz University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee

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Ideology Versus Clientelism: Modernization and Electoral Competition in Brazil Cássio Da Silva Muniz University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee UWM Digital Commons Theses and Dissertations August 2015 Ideology Versus Clientelism: Modernization and Electoral Competition in Brazil Cássio da Silva Muniz University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Follow this and additional works at: https://dc.uwm.edu/etd Part of the Latin American Studies Commons, and the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Muniz, Cássio da Silva, "Ideology Versus Clientelism: Modernization and Electoral Competition in Brazil" (2015). Theses and Dissertations. 1015. https://dc.uwm.edu/etd/1015 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by UWM Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of UWM Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. IDEOLOGY VERSUS CLIENTELISM: MODERNIZATION AND ELECTORAL COMPETITION IN BRAZIL by Cássio da Silva Muniz A Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science at The University of Wisconsin – Milwaukee August 2015 ABSTRACT IDEOLOGY VERSUS CLIENTELISM: MODERNIZATION AND ELECTORAL COMPETITION IN BRAZIL by Cássio da Silva Muniz The University of Wisconsin – Milwaukee, 2015 Under the Supervision of Professor Natasha Borges Sugiyama This study investigates how parties utilize the political dimensions of ideology (left- right) and clientelism (programmatic-patronage) to compete electorally in developing democracies. It proposes a combined utility theory, which suggests polarized competitive elections in modernizing national electoral markets compel programmatic parties to coalesce with clientelistic parties to gain access to regional private electoral markets. Methodologically, this study draws on a mixed-method approach focusing on Brazil as a crucial test case. It applies spatial voting models to assess the validity of ideological competition as well as geospatial voting distribution based on clustering and dispersion to devise a new quantitative measurement of clientelism based on subnational electoral market characteristics. Field research helps uncover how political elites form strategically combined ideological and clientelistic party coalitions to increase electoral success. The analysis suggests ideology and clientelism operate as independent factors explaining political linkages in developing democracies. The interaction of these dimensions through electoral coalitions, however, indicates the weakening of ideology over time and lack of discernible pattern on the clientelistic level. This study contributes to the literature by investigating party competition on the ii ideological and clientelistic levels. It also contributes to the analytical and methodological refinement of the concept of clientelism as a systematic political linkage. iii © Copyright by Cássio da Silva Muniz, 2015 All Rights Reserved iv TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................................. vii LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................................. viii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................................... ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ......................................................................................................................... xi CHAPTER 1 ................................................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction: A Combined Utility Theory of Political Linkage .............................................. 1 CHAPTER 2 ............................................................................................................................................. 14 Literature Review ................................................................................................................................ 14 Ideology .............................................................................................................................................. 15 Clientelism ......................................................................................................................................... 18 Coalitions ............................................................................................................................................ 26 Toward a Utility Theory of Partisan Coalitions ................................................................... 33 Ideology .............................................................................................................................................. 36 Clientelism ......................................................................................................................................... 37 Coalition .............................................................................................................................................. 37 CHAPTER 3 ............................................................................................................................................. 38 Party Ideological Differentiation in Brazil ................................................................................. 38 Theoretical Approach .................................................................................................................... 40 Aggregate-level Data and Analysis ........................................................................................... 47 Individual-level Data and Analysis ........................................................................................... 53 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................... 58 CHAPTER 4 ............................................................................................................................................. 61 Political Competition in Brazil: Measuring Party Clientelism ............................................ 61 The Herfindahl Index ..................................................................................................................... 62 Data and Measurements ............................................................................................................... 63 Dependent Variable ....................................................................................................................... 64 Herfindahl Index ......................................................................................................................... 64 Independent Variables .................................................................................................................. 65 Ideology.......................................................................................................................................... 65 Private Sector’s Size .................................................................................................................. 66 Public Administration’s Size .................................................................................................. 66 GDP per Capita ............................................................................................................................ 67 Control Variables............................................................................................................................. 67 Urbanization ................................................................................................................................. 67 Population ..................................................................................................................................... 68 Region ............................................................................................................................................. 68 District Magnitude ..................................................................................................................... 68 Model and Findings ........................................................................................................................ 69 Discussion of The Herfindahl Index ......................................................................................... 71 The Cluster Index ............................................................................................................................ 77 v Discussion of the Cluster Index ................................................................................................. 81 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................... 88 CHAPTER 5 ............................................................................................................................................. 93 Ideological and Clientelistic Determinants of Electoral Coalitions in Brazil ................ 93 Data and Measurements ............................................................................................................... 95 Dependent Variable ....................................................................................................................... 95 Electoral Coalition .....................................................................................................................
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