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Copper Price Under Pressure, Downgrade to "Reduce"

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Copper Price Under Pressure, Downgrade to 股 票 研 [Table_Title] Kevin Guo 郭勇 Company Report: Jiangxi Copper (00358 HK) 究 (86755) 2397 6671 Equity Research 公司报告： 江西铜业 (00358 HK) [email protected] 15 April 2020 [Table_Summary] Copper Price Under Pressure, Downgrade to "Reduce" 铜价承压，下调至“减持”评级 公 The 2019 annual results of Jiangxi Copper were lower than market [Table_Rank] 司 consensus and our estimations. Total revenue of the Company increased Rating: Reduce Downgraded 报 11.64% yoy to RMB240.36 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders increased 0.77% yoy to RMB2.47 billion. 告 评级： 减持 (下调) Company Report Copper price is expected to be badly hit by the COVID-19 pandemic around the world. We expect gold price to benefit from loose monetary 6[Table_Price]-18m TP 目标价 : HK$7.05 policy and investor demand for safe haven assets. We expect global Revised from 原目标价: HK$10.90 metal consumption demand to contract and the average annual copper price to trade between US$5,000/t-US$5,500/t. We expect the annual average Share price 股价: HK$7.840 gold price to be around US$1,550/oz-US$1,650/oz in 2020. 告 证 In 2020, the Company plans to produce 1.65 million tons of refined Stock performance 报 copper, 0.21 million tons of mined copper, 77.0 tons of gold, 1,025 tons 股价表现 券 Report of silver and 1.63 million tons of copper products. 究 5.0 [Table_QuotePic% of return] 研 0.0 Revise down the TP to HK$7.05, and downgrade to "Reduce". 研 (5.0) 究 江西铜业 2019 年年度业绩差于市场一致预期和我们的估计。公司收入同比增长 11.64% (10.0) 券 报 至人民币 2,403.6 亿元，股东净利同比增长 0.77%至人民币 24.7 亿元。 (15.0) (20.0) 告 证 铜价预计将受到新冠病毒疫情在全球爆发的沉重打击。我们预计金价将受益于宽松的货币 (25.0) Equity Research 政策和投资者对避险资产的需求。我们预计全球金属消费需求将萎缩，年度铜均价在 (30.0) 5,000-5,500 美元/吨。我们预计 2020 年黄金年度均价在 1,550-1,650 美元/盎司。 (35.0) (40.0) 在 2020 年，公司计划生产 165 万吨冶炼铜，21 万吨矿产铜，77 吨黄金，1,025 吨白银 (45.0) [Tab 和 163 万吨铜材。 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 le_I 下调公司目标价至 7.05 港元，下调至“减持”评级。 HSI Index Jiangxi Copper nfo1 有] Change[Table_PriceChange] in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 色 股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 Abs. % (0.9) (28.2) (28.8) 金 绝对变动 % 属 Rel. % to HS Index (2.3) (12.8) (10.5) 相对恒指变动 % 行 Avg. Share price(HK$) 7.1 8.6 9.3 业 平均股价（港元） Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. Nonferrous Sector Metals [Tab le_I Y[Table_ear End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE Profit] 年结 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 nfo2 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△ %) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) ] 2018A 214,395 2,415 0.697 46.1 9.9 14.372 0.5 0.200 2.9 5.0 江 2019A 240,360 2,466 0.712 2.2 9.8 15.232 0.5 0.100 1.4 4.8 2020F 234,987 1,865 0.539 (24.3) 13.2 15.690 0.5 0.081 1.1 3.5 西 2021F 237,967 2,190 0.633 17.4 11.3 16.228 0.4 0.095 1.3 4.0 铜 2022F 242,309 2,564 0.740 16.9 9.6 16.857 0.4 0.111 1.6 4.5 业 [Table_BaseData]Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 3,462.7 Major shareholder 大股东 Jiangxi Copper Group 40.5% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 27,147.6 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 59.5% 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 5,531.9 FY20 Net gearing (%) FY20 净负债/股东资金 (%) 53.0 Jiangxi HK) Copper (00358 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 (HK$) 11.380 / 6.340 FY20 Est. NAV (HK$) FY20 每股估值（港元） 10.8 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 6 [Table_PageHeader]Jiangxi Copper (00358 HK) The 2019 annual results of Jiangxi Copper (the "Company") were 7.8% and 18.2% lower than market consensus and our estimation, respectively. Total revenue of the Company increased 11.64% yoy] to1 RMBr a 240.36M t h billiong i , R and_ e netl profitb a T [ attributable to shareholders increased 0.77% yoy to RMB2.47 billion. The production of the Company was stable and the Company generally fulfilled its output target: the output of mined copper increased by 0.43% yoy to 209,200 tons; the output of refined copper increased by 6.26% yoy to 1.55 million tons; the output of gold increased by 96.09% yoy to 50.16 tons; the output of silver increased by 63.95% to 646.82 tons; the output of sulfur acid increased by 15.20% to 4.63 million tons; the output of copper products increased by 6.98% yoy to 1.20 million tons. The growth in the output of refined copper, gold and silver was mainly attributable to a smelting factory the Company acquired in 2019. Average LME copper price decreased by 15 April 2020 7.96% yoy to US$ 6,021.6/t in 2019 and average gold price increased by 9.80% yoy to US$1,393.4/oz. Figure-1: Gold price Figure-2: Copper price 2,000 9,000 USD/oz USD/t 1,800 8,000 1,600 7,000 1,400 6,000 ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ 1,200 5,000 1,000 4,000 800 3,000 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. Copper price is expected to be badly hit by the COVID-19 pandemic around the world. We expect gold price to benefit from loose monetary policy and investor demand for safe haven assets and the annual average gold price to be around US$1,550/oz-US$1,650/oz in 2020. Copper is expected to be badly hit by the COVID-19 pandemic around the world. (00358 HK) We expect global supply of copper to be stable in 2020 as the operation of global copper mining companies are stable. However, the COVID-19 pandemic around the world will hurt global copper demand badly. Although the COVID-19 outbreak has been successfully contained by the Chinese government and China’s demand for metal is expected to be only slightly 江西铜业 impacted, there are no signs that the COVID-19 pandemic will be under control in Europe and America in the short term. As more and more factories are shut down and commercial activity idles, global metal consumption demand will be severely hurt. We expect that copper price will be under great pressure in 2020 and is expected to drop. We expect copper price to trade between US$4,500/t-US$6,500/t in 2020, and the annual average copper price may be around US$5,000/t-US$5,500/t in Jiangxi Copper 2020. We expect gold price to benefit greatly from the outbreak of COVID-19 and to rise in 2020. As the spread of COVID-19 accelerated in America, the U.S. Federal Reserve (the "Federal Reserve") cut interest rate two times in March, which exceeded the expectations of most investors. Additionally, the Federal Reserve also advised quantitative easing ("QE") plans, which will release US$700 billion in liquidity to the market. Although gold price declined at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak with other assets as investors rushed for cash, it retrieved all the loss after the Federal Reserve released the QE plan. Besides, investor demand for safe haven assets will also support gold price. We expect gold price to continue to rise in 2020 and the annual average gold price to be around US$1,550/oz-US$1,650/oz. In 2020, the Company plans to produce 1.65 million tons of refined copper, 0.21 million tons of mined copper, 77.0 tons of gold, 1,025 tons of silver and 1.63 million tons of copper products. The output growth of refined copper, gold and silver was mainly attributable to the newly acquired smelting factory. The Company acquired Shandong Hengbang in 2019, which brought smelting production capacity of 0.25 million tons of copper, 50 tons of gold and 700 tons of silver. The output target of mining products of the Company generally remained the same compared to that of 2019.The production of the Report Company was stable and the Company generally fulfilled its output target in 2019. Generally speaking, output of mined copper, which contributes most of the profit to the Company, has remained stable over the past several years as mining capacity of the Company has remained unchanged. Jiangxi Copper only acquired a partial stake in two copper mines with other companies in Company the past few years, and both of them are under construction and will take some time before production can start. On the other hand, expansion projects of domestic mines have almost all been completed. We expect the mining output of the Company to See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 6 [Table_PageHeader]Jiangxi Copper (00358 HK) remain unchanged over the next few years. The output of copper cathodes increased by 6.8% yoy in 2019 and is expected to grow slightly in 2020.
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