Ending Ethnic Armed Confl ict in Burma A Complicated Peace Process A Collection of BCES Analysis and Briefi ng Papers Lian H. Sakhong and Paul Keenan ©2014 by the Burma Centre for Ethnic Studies Layout & Design: Sai Mawn Cover design: Myo Myint BCES Press Burma Centre for Ethnic Studies Email:
[email protected] Website: www.burmaethnicstudies.net Protected by copyright under the terms of the International Copyright Union: all rights reserved. Except for fair use in book reviews, no part of this publication may be reproduced in any form of by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage or retrieval system without prior permis- sion in writing from the copyright holders. ISBN: 978-616-361-942-6 Made in Thailand Printed by Wanida Press, Chiang Mai First Print 2014 Contents Preface ...... i PART - ONE: ANALYSIS PAPERS 1. The Dynamics of Sixty Years of Ethnic Armed Confl icts in Burma ....... 1 2. Burma at a Crossroads ....... 29 3. Ending Ethnic Armed Confl icts in Burma? ....... 51 4. The 2008 Consitution and Ethnic Issues ....... 72 5. Changing the Guard ....... 91 6. Realising Change in Karen Politics ....... 107 7. Tensions and Concerns in Shan State ....... 118 8. The Kachins’ Dilemma: Become a Border Guard Force or Return to Warfare ....... 127 9. The Kokang Clashes – What Next? ....... 143 10. The Dilemma of Military Dictatorship and Internal Peace in Burma ....... 153 PART - TWO: BRIEFING PAPERS 11. Burma’s Ethnic Ceasefi re Agreements ....... 163 12. An Uneasy Peace ....... 180 13. The Border Guard Force ....... 186 14. People’s Militia Forces ......