SPECIAL REPORT

Panama: Four months before the elections. Lists, polls and tendencies

Panamá, February 2014

BARCELONA BOGOTÁ BUENOS AIRES LIMA LISBOA MADRID MÉXICO PANAMÁ QUITO RIO J SÃO PAULO SANTIAGO STO DOMINGO : Four months before the elections. Lists, polls and tendencies

1. ELECTORAL OUTLOOK 1.ELECTORAL OUTLOOK 2. A VICE-PRESIDENCY WITH WOMEN'S’ FRAGANCE The electoral process in Panama was officially opened last January 4, 2014. In this single voting system, all authorities will be renewed and 3. LATEST POLLS SHOW CERTAIN voters are called to choose their President, Mayors, Deputies and District TENDENCIES Representatives. 4. CONCLUSIONS AUTHORS In accordance with the electoral agenda, the four candidates, Juan Carlos Navarro, , José Domingo Arias and Genaro López, have LLORENTE & CUENCA officially presented their vice-presidencies. The Electoral Tribunal has also confirmed three independent candidates for the Presidency of the Republic.

These candidates were elected according to the number of signatures obtained, with regards to the group, Panamá Avanza which supports the Cambio Democrático (Democratic Change party), classifying the former leader Esteban Rodriguez and Gerardo Barroso.

Gerardo Solís, former Magistrate of the Electoral Tribunal, led the independents’ list. However, he became vice-president of the PRD (Partido Revolucionario Democrático) and Juan Jované (University Professor and economist who belongs to the Independent Movement for the Nation’s Re-foundation) took over his position. Jované, who issued the formal complaint that led to the admission of independent candidates for the Presidency for the first time, went through a legal and media battle in order to be recognized as a candidate by the Electoral Tribunal.

Now that the candidates’ lists are completed, the next three months will be key in promoting their proposals and monitoring polls. In the election atmosphere, we can hear the echoes of “dirty campaign” especially in the social networks, comments regarding the investment on advertising of the party Cambio Democrático and the absence of the governmental candidate in the first presidential debates organized by the Media. However, so far, he leads all the surveys of intended voters choices.

2 Panama: Four months before the elections. Lists, polls and tendencies

2. A VICE-PRESIDENCY of the agreement of National WITH WOMEN'S’ FRAGANCE Development for Panama. In 2010, she worked as an With regards to the female sector, independent facilitator for which asks for equality regarding national dialogue which was set electoral and ministerial offices, by the government of Ricardo three of the four parties have Martinelli in order to reform Law decided to present women as 30 and finish with the general vice-presidents. crisis that had triggered strikes and violent demonstrations An independent face on the with tragic results. In 2011, stage President Martinelli required her services again to design Last Sunday, January 26, the and implement a consultation couple formed by the Panameñista process to present a proposal party and the People’s Party for a comprehensive reform of presented Isabel Saint Maló as the Political Constitution, which their candidate for the vice- had had several problems since presidency of the Republic. She its beginning, during the 70s is an independent character and under the dictatorship of Omar not very famous on the political Torrijos Herrera, the inspiring stage. However, due to her 15 leader of the PRD (Revolutionary years of service as manager of Democratic Party). the UN Development Program for Panama, she has always had very Her two last collaborations close relationships with several reinforced her relationship with governmental administrations. the supporting team of Juan Carlos Varela, who was at that time the She has more than 20 years’ Republic’s Vice-President. When experience in consultancy and Varela was officially a candidate led the “Acuerdos de Bambito” for the elections, Saint Malo which were the agreements that participated in the alliance plan designed the country’s agenda “El pueblo primero” and joined after the military invasion and the group “Varela’s friends” even

Isabel Saint Malo, Vice-Presidential Candidate included politicians from all attending some public activities of the Panameñista Party for the presidential areas of the country, businessmen of this movement. elections and also civils. She was also part of the team that designed the During her candidacy acceptance “Acuerdos de Coronado” which speech, she used her characteristic set the legislative basis for the smooth and conciliatory tone Constitutional to reveal some of her positions: Amendment. This amendment “Gentlemen, we are not talking created the Authority of the about extending paternalism but Panama Canal and turned it into providing the required tools for an autonomous institution. people to develop by themselves. Temporary subsidies are In 2007, she completed her necessary, but permanent ones service for the UN as Director are unworthy”.

3 Panama: Four months before the elections. Lists, polls and tendencies

Varela’s candidacy is supported Her appointment was not surprising by two personalities of the since the FAD had already ancient Panamanian aristocracy announced it would not join who are also representatives of any other traditional candidates the country’s economic power (by alliances) and that it would and had previously supported the present its own candidates. PRD candidates in the four past elections. The personalities are Candidate Gordón said during Ricardo Alberto Arias, former his presentation, in a strong and Maribel Gordón during the announcement Minister for Foreign Relationships energetic tone, that the FAD’s of her candidacy for the vice-presidency of the FAD during the government of government would be based on Ernesto Pérez Balladares and respect and recovering the people’s UN ambassador during Martín rights that had been sullied by Torrijos’ administration; and the “party-ocracy” governing the Federico Humbert, Panamanian country during the Republic. ambassador in the USA during Torrijos’ government. Both are Another Martinelli for the connected to the Banco General, candidacy one of the most important banks of the country and to the Although the Democratic Party publishing house Coropración has based its slogan on the which publishes the strength of the new, in their newspapers La Prensa and Mi list you can see a well-known Diario showing a clear opposition personality of the national to the current Government. scene. Her name is Marta Linares de Martinelli and she is the First An old ally of the working sector Lady of the Republic.

On the same day, January 26, Marta Linares de Martinelli comes the newborn party Frente Amplio from a family with a strong political por la Democracia (FAD) also background. Her father was co presented a woman as candidate founder of the Partido Arnulfista for the vice-presidency in the list and her aunt, Ana Matilde Linares led by the legendary trade unionist de Arias was the first wife of the Marta Linares de Martinelli together with her Genaro López. Her name is Maribel three-times elected President husband, the President Ricardo Martinelli and her party’s colleague José Domingo Díaz Gordón, and she is an economist Madrid, leader of the and University Professor. Partido Panameñista.

She is well known among As head of Office of the First trade unionists and the media Lady, she has developed a wide due to her activities over the social and cultural agenda, which past years helping workers in is her cover letter. Her speech is negotiations to set the minimum soft and formal and she avoids salary and by her opposition to political confrontations in the the neoliberal policies of the media. However, her comments nation’s governments over the on Twitter about different issues past few decades. are constant.

4 Panama: Four months before the elections. Lists, polls and tendencies

The political rumor started by a From Magistrate to Vice-President member of the Martinelli family which positioned her as the The first candidate to announce partner of José Domingo Arias for the vice-president of the party’s the elections, was then confirmed. list was Juan Carlos Navarro from This candidacy has heated the PRD. The candidate is Gerardo the debate since some people Solís, former director of the Social consider Marta Linares’ candidacy Investment Fund and Housing as an extension of her husband’s Minister during the government “Ricardo Martinelli, government (who cannot be of Ernesto Pérez Balladares. After all your fears are here reelected). Another controversial holding these two offices, he today. Pay attention aspect is that she would not have worked as an electoral attorney to me, Martinelli, your to resign her position as First Lady and as magistrate for the Electoral worst nightmare is since she is not a public servant, Tribunal. and therefore, she can continue coming true, your time her activities from the presidential Again, his appointment was has finished, I am sure palace while she campaigns as a not a surprise due to his old it’s finished” candidate for the vice-presidency. connection to the party and his new role as independent, harshly There are several arguments criticizing the government of against her appointment regarding Ricardo Martinelli and having legal and ethical aspects. However, made visible strives during his some renowned experts on the last months as magistrate. Constitution such as Edgardo Molino Mola, former magistrate His speech during the official of the Supreme Court of Justice, presentation was energetic have explained that according to and focused on the President: the Article 193 of the Constitution, “Ricardo Martinelli, all your “President’s relatives up to the fears are here today. Pay forth-level of consanguinity and attention to me, Martinelli, your second of affinity cannot be elected worst nightmare is coming true, Vice-President”. Nevertheless, the your time has finished, I am sure Article 123 of the Family Code does it’s finished”. not establish any kinship between wife and husband. Therefore, Political analysts share the Gerardo Solís, Vice-President of the PRD for there is not any kinship between opinion that this appointment the presidential elections the candidate and the President, aims to reinforce their position and her candidacy is legal. against the government and achieve more aggressive attacks This is not the first case in the (which was one of the critics to region. The strategy of the party Navarro’s speech, as well as its of the former President Leonel low combative intention and its Fernández turned his wife Margarita focus on the government’s plan). Cedeño, who was First Lady of the Critics have come from the most Dominican Republic, into the Vice- traditional sector of the PRD and President of the country. independent sectors.

5 Panama: Four months before the elections. Lists, polls and tendencies

Finally, the group formed by the same percentage as in the independent candidates has September last year. confirmed its candidates for the vice-presidency. Alberto Reyes, As for Juan Carlos Varela, he the young leader of the FAT is the started in September 2013 with candidate for the vice-presidency 22% and after an increase that of professor Jované and Sarai led the party to reach 27% of the Blaisdell will be the one for the voting intention, he is now back to former leader Esteban Rodríguez. the same percentage (22%) of five “The last survey carried months ago. out by Dichter & Neira for TVN News, shows 3. LATEST POLLS SHOW Another baseline survey was the candidate José Domingo TENDENCIES one carried out by Ipsos, “Panamá Arias as the favorite Opina” for Telemetro reporta As was expected, both, the and the newspaper La Estrella. candidate (39% intended media and the political parties, Although percentages are slightly votes)” are monitoring the voting different according to this survey, intentions and reacting to each the positioning is still the same. new development concerning the presidential candidates. According to the surveys of January, the government’s candidate would The last survey carried out by lead the voting gathering 31% of Dichter & Neira for TVN News, the voting intention, followed by shows candidate José Domingo Navarro (25%), Juan Carlos Varela Arias as the favorite candidate (19%) and the FAD’s candidate (1%). (39% intended votes) followed by Juan Carlos Navarro (24%) and Several political analysts say that Juan Carlos Varela (22%). it is still too soon to talk about irreversible tendencies since By analyzing the last six surveys of percentages can still change. the company it can be seen that However, they highlight that the candidate Arias has always been gap between the government’s the favorite with a percentage over candidate and the other 37% (in September 2013) and which candidates is getting bigger and increased by 39% according to the there is not much time before the last survey in January 2014. general elections.

However, different percentages can be observed between the 4. CONCLUSIONS other two candidates who are fighting for the second and There are 2 million 457 thousand the third position. According and 401 citizens entitled to to the analysis of the same vote and choose their new surveys, it can be noted that authorities for the next five Juan Carlos Navarro had, at the years. The new president will beginning, 24% of the intended be the sixth of the country’s votes and after some increases democracy after two decades and decreases he keeps now of military dictatorship.

6 Panama: Four months before the elections. Lists, polls and tendencies

In the final stretch, speeches there is a governmental candidate are focused on attacking the who could be elected and finish other candidates and presenting with the power alternation that their government plans. The has been typical over the past weekends become electoral four general elections. parties full with conventions, meetings, assemblies and In the event of the election of tours all over the country. The the government’s candidate, activity does not stop either in Panama, for the first time, would the social networks between join the list of the countries in the truces and “dirty campaigns”. region where there is no party’s alternation. For example, in The current elections are quite Costa Rica, the Partido Liberación different from the old ones which Nacional has governed the country were traditionally an electoral with the same president since battle between the Government 2006; in Colombia, the president and the Opposition. Álvaro Uribe was substituted by his party’s colleague Juan Manuel The new elections’ scenario is full Santos; in Brazil, of news for voters. There is an could be reelected as president opposition with two candidates, and that would mean the fourth (one of them was part of the period in a row with the same current government until August party, and in Bolivia, Evo Morales 2012), a new left wing party could be elected president for led by a worker trade unionist the third time. Other countries (the Panamanian Lula), three such as Ecuador, the Dominican candidates who are allowed to Republic, Argentina, Honduras participate thanks to the new and El Salvador have also section of Law which accepts reelected the same party for the independent candidates, and government.

7 Panama: Four months before the elections. Lists, polls and tendencies

AUTHORS

Javier Rosado Partner and Managing Director of LLORENTE & CUENCA Panama. Javier has been Director of Communications at the Gibraltar-San Roque Refinery, the largest in Spain and one of the most important refineries in Europe, owned by CESPA. To this responsibility he added directing the communications of Petresa and Interquisa, petrochemical companies of the CEPSA Group and NGS, a CCGT owned by a joint venture between CEPSA and Unión Fenosa. Before specializing in this field, Javier worked for four years for Editorial Planeta, enhancing the communication of all of its audiovisual departments. He completed the Master in Communication Business Management and the Bachelor of Information Sciences, both at the Universidad Navarra, and also finished the Master in Occupational Risk Prevention. [email protected]

Margorieth Tejeira Senior Director of LLORENTE & CUENCA Panama. Margorieth was the Communication Manager of the National Bank of Panama, responsible for the divulgation process and crisis management of the state bank modernization process. She also worked in the Ministry of Commerce and Industry of Panama in the Free Trade Agreement with the United States. She has experience in the fields of infrastructure, public affairs and crisis. She obtained her BA in Journalism at the University of Panama and has a Degree in Free Trade Associations from the Latin American Foreign Trade University. She has worked as a journalist, news anchor and coordinator in Radio and Television. [email protected]

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