DOCSLIB.ORG

Spillover Effect of Anti-Satellite Race in Asia Pacific and Way of Mitigating an Anti-Satellite Dilemma Through Economic

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Spillover Effect of Anti-Satellite Race in Asia Pacific and Way of Mitigating an Anti-Satellite Dilemma Through Economic 7th International Conference on Humanities and Social Sciences “ASEAN 2015: Challenges and Opportunities” (Proceedings) Spillover Effect of Anti-Satellite Race in Asia Pacific and Way of Mitigating an Anti-Satellite Dilemma Through Economic 1. Nur Hazlina Saad, National Defense University Of Malaysia, Malaysia, [email protected] Abstract The development of anti-satellite weapons by China in 2007 to compete the United States space capability has posed a spillover effect in the Asia pacific region. The effect can emerge from the use of direct ascent, electric magnetic pulse, lasers, or jammers that could cripple a satellite system in the future. However, below the low orbit, majority of the Asia Pacific countries are enjoying economic activities and trading relationship whether within Asian countries or with the China or United States. The purpose of this paper is to review an economy interests among Asian countries as a determinant factor that could mitigate the spillover effect posed by anti-satellite race by U.S. and China in the Asia Pacific region. This paper argues that economic relationship among Asian countries is too good to be wasted as it has turns to be an important tool for prosperity and security of countries in the region whist U.S. also is exploring a bigger market with the countries in the region. It has shown that the economic factor plays an important role in preserving the regional stability for decades. Therefore, any decision on peace and conflict in the region must be deeply consider this vital factor. Keywords: Mitigating space dilemma, economic cooperation in asia pacific, asia pacific strategic stability Faculty of Liberal Arts, Prince of Songkla University, June 5-6, 2015 681 7th International Conference on Humanities and Social Sciences “ASEAN 2015: Challenges and Opportunities” (Proceedings) Introduction This paper suggested the conceptual approach of the spillover effects of anti- satellite race between China and United States in Asia Pacific and current economic trend in the region can appears to be a factor that mitigating the effect. Research has shown that there is anti satellite arms race existing between U.S. and China, and therefore the method of resolution for the race should be bring into the table. Findings found that there are two signs of arms race between two countries, that there are security dilemma attributes has been developing since the – action and reaction – of anti satellites system occurs at times, and this event has bring the situation where a reasonable methods of solution need to bring into table to reduce the tension. Resolution that has been suggesting in this paper is economic cooperation that appears to be a vital factor that reduces the tension especially between China and its neighbour in Asia Pacific. CONTEMPORARY U.S.- CHINA ANTI-SATELLITE RACE It is good to stress out that comparing to first space weapon arms race occurs between U.S. and Soviet Union during the period of Star Wars 1956-1991, the characters and features of anti-satellite weapons between U.S and China is very different because of many different factors and backgrounds. The countries are different, the regimes are different, the military doctrines are different, the foreign policy are different, space technology are different, space budget are different, threat of perceptions are different, geopolitical considerations are different, characters of leaders are different, space ambitions, perceptions of superpower, and perception of friends and foes also different. Such listed factors have play a very much important role to shape the decision to develop and own a very capable anti-satellite weapons and counter-anti satellite weapons. It is not easy to understand why a country have decided to have its own space weapons but perhaps such a list of factors would be able to provide a reader with such a basic knowledge about why one country acquiring space weapons. However, in the world of uncertainty with such a predictable and unpredictable characters from leaders and states, together with such a revolution in military affairs in space technology and aspiration, alongside with changing environment in threat Faculty of Liberal Arts, Prince of Songkla University, June 5-6, 2015 682 7th International Conference on Humanities and Social Sciences “ASEAN 2015: Challenges and Opportunities” (Proceedings) perception matters, and to cope with such a dynamisn in leadership characters and state’s foreign policy and grand strategy, it appears for some countries, like China and U.S, that anti-satellite weapons would appears to be an ultimate guarantee for their national security and survivality, not to mention the aspiration to preserve its national power and political influence as well as gaining a status of supremacy and compatibility status (for China and other countries, except U.S.). While discussing about the methods of resolution for the dilemma of security occurs from U.S. and China anti-satellite arms race, it appears that a few methods has been preferred. They are code of Conduct in Outer Space, space treaties, deterrence mechanism, diplomacy confidence building measures, regional organisation role, and economic cooperation. Different from anticipation between U.S and Soviet Union, apparently any methods that potentially proposed to reduce the ASAT arms race between U.S and China must have a consideration of economic interdependence between both respective countries, and between China and its neighbours in Asia Pacific because obviously any change and action in foreign policy and diplomacy would also have an impact into trading ties that has been developed since thirty years ago with his neighbour within ASEAN countries. Neither China’s action nor foreign policy should be perceived threatened his trading neighbour partner in Asia Pacific region. In fact, China has also developed a deep consideration about his future ambition and positions that could affected his further opportunity as a member in Association of South East Asia Nations (ASEAN) as China has become second important trading partner after Japan with countries in this organisation. This economic character is so much different from competition between U.S and Soviet Union during space age as both countries previously hardly related to each other whether in political terms or economic wise because both countries clearly originally from a very different block of ideology and economic structure. While in the case with China, U.S. and China still have a slightly trading cooperation especially for consumer goods besides U.S. foreign investment in China mainland. Thus any changes in space policy or space-relations in either China or U.S. would have an impact towards political or economic relations, or Faculty of Liberal Arts, Prince of Songkla University, June 5-6, 2015 683 7th International Conference on Humanities and Social Sciences “ASEAN 2015: Challenges and Opportunities” (Proceedings) future potential cooperation in mentioned areas. Clearly, the impact of space policy in both countries not as simple as in the age of competition between U.S and Soviet Union where competition might motivated from technological and power driven that allowed them to compete separately between two blocks of ideology without relation in any other area of state affairs. IS THERE A CLEAR ANTI- SATELLITE RACE BETWEEN CHINA AND UNITED STATES? Out of all findings, there is little to agree that the degree of development of ASAT weapons of China and U.S. respectively has reach the phase of arms race.1 Even though the development is there, but it is very early to conclude that as a race. Therefore it lead to the little agreement about the level of existence of the race itself. However, due to the responses by the superpower like United States of America (U.S.), community of space warfare tend to perceived that the impact of the race is somewhat strong.2 So does the belief it would disrupt the stability of the Asia Pacific region. Thus, it has comes to the points now that space community tend to believe on their perception based on little sign of existence of ASAT itself. Perhaps that the cognitive decision lead to the such belief is related to the impact of the ASAT weapons itself as they could think it can be very lethal and highly disruptive. The image of the whole electronic system in the country will be left crippled may comes to their mind to define the level threat that ASAT weapons would posed. Not only the electronic system would be disrupted, the enemy also have the ability to strike back with a ballistic missile defence into home country without any sign of early warning that could be detected. This is far too dangerous to be thought, but then it is not the impossible level could be achieved by any ASAT power. Perhaps these types of threat has comes to the mind of space community to agree that ASAT weapons has carried a level of lethal capability with it even though the actual weapon race or the level of existence of the race would not been have clarify yet.3 1 Finding from interviews with scholars and military officers over the world. Refer Thesis prepared for Phd by Nur Hazlina Saad, Phd in Politics, University of Hull. Thesis would be submitted in July 2015. 2 Findings from Online Survey with scholars and military officers over the world. Refer Thesis prepared for Phd by Nur Hazlina Saad, Phd in Politics, University of Hull. Thesis would be submitted in July 2015. 3 Ibid. Faculty of Liberal Arts, Prince of Songkla University, June 5-6, 2015 684 7th International Conference on Humanities and Social Sciences “ASEAN 2015: Challenges and Opportunities” (Proceedings) The paper also found that in order to look for solution of ASAT security dilemma in the Asia Pacific region, few factors have to be taken into consideration, that are geopolitical factors, role of superpower as security determinant in the region, and role of regional organization that tightened the common decision of majority states in the region.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • The Macroeconomic Spillover Effects of the Pandemic on the Global Economy
    BIS Bulletin No 4 The macroeconomic spillover effects of the pandemic on the global economy Emanuel Kohlscheen, Benoît Mojon and Daniel Rees 6 April 2020 BIS Bulletins are written by staff members of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. The authors are grateful to Burcu Erik for excellent analysis and research assistance, and to Louisa Wagner for administrative support. The editor of the BIS Bulletin series is Hyun Song Shin. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2020. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN: 2708-0420 (online) ISBN: 92-9197-359-9 (online) Emanuel Kohlscheen Benoît Mojon Daniel Rees [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] The macroeconomic spillover effects of the pandemic on the global economy Key takeaways • Given the historical persistence of economic activity, the reduction of GDP due to confinement measures is likely to drag on over several quarters. The total GDP shortfall could be as much as twice that implied by the direct initial effects of confinement. • This persistence reflects in part two types of spillovers across countries. One is due to the risk that uncoordinated confinements lead to repeated virus outbreaks and confinements across the globe. Another is the more traditional trade and financial integration interlinkages.
    [Show full text]
  • Trade and R&D Spillover Effects: Implications for Firm Level Analysis
    FAO COMMODITY AND TRADE POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER No. 40 TRADE AND R&D SPILLOVER EFFECTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR FIRM LEVEL ANALYSIS IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR by David Skully and Manitra A. Rakotoarisoa Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO. © FAO 2013 FAO encourages the use, reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product. Except where otherwise indicated, material may be copied, downloaded and printed for private study, research and teaching purposes, or for use in non-commercial products or services, provided that appropriate acknowledgement of FAO as the source and copyright holder is given and that FAO’s endorsement of users’ views, products or services is not implied in any way. All requests for translation and adaptation rights, and for resale and other commercial use rights should be made via www.fao.org/contact-us/licence- request or addressed to [email protected].
    [Show full text]
  • Spillover Effects of Social Policies. Can the State Support for the Unemployed Affect Employees’ Health and Wellbeing?
    Spillover effects of social policies. Can the state support for the unemployed affect employees’ health and wellbeing? Anna Baranowska-Rataj, Department of Sociology, Umeå University Björn Högberg, Department of Social Work, Umeå University 1 Introduction Massive job losses and the growth of employment uncertainty in the aftermath of the Great Recession spurred public debate on the importance of labour market policies (Card et al. 2016). This discussion has focused on the two main goals: bringing people back to work and diminishing economic hardship among the unemployed. Little attention has been paid to the role of policies for dealing with other consequences of unemployment, such as mental and physical health problems and reduced overall wellbeing (O’Campo et al. 2015). Moreover, the assessments of the effects of labour market policies have been restricted to the most direct beneficiaries of these policies. A standard approach in evaluations of the effects of policies focuses on people receiving government support and treats individuals who resemble beneficiaries in a number of characteristics but do not receive support as the ‘control group’. This approach ignores the possibility of spillover effects, i.e. the fact that people who did not receive support from a policy, might still gain from it alongside with the direct beneficiaries (Angelucci & Di Maro 2016; Lundin & Karlsson 2014). The aim of this report is to provide a review of the effects of labour market policies on health and wellbeing among both the unemployed and employees, but with focus on the latter group. We elaborate on the implications of the economic theory of insurance, as well as the capability approach proposed by Sen (1999), which highlights the role of the ability to decide about oneself.
    [Show full text]
  • International Spillovers of Monetary Policy Editors: Ángel Estrada García Alberto Ortiz Bolaños
    BANCO DE ESPAÑA Eurosistema Joint Research Program XX Meeting of the Central Bank Researchers Network of the Americas International Spillovers of Monetary Policy Editors: Ángel Estrada García Alberto Ortiz Bolaños International Spillovers of Monetary Policy International Spillovers of Monetary Policy JOINT RESEARCH PROGRAM CENTRAL BANK RESEARCHERS NETWORK CENTER FOR LATIN AMERICAN MONETARY STUDIES Editors Ángel Estrada García Executive Coordinator, Associate Directorate General International Affairs, Banco de España <[email protected]> Alberto Ortiz Bolaños Manager of Economic Research Department, cemla Research Professor, egade Business School <[email protected]> First edition, 2017 © Center for Latin American Monetary Studies, 2017 Durango núm. 54, Colonia Roma Norte, Delegación Cuauhtémoc, 06700 Ciudad de México, México. All rights reserved ISBN: 978-607-7734-84-0 (print) ISBN: 978-607-7734-88-8 (online) Printed and made in Mexico vi PREFACE ince 2005 cemla’s Central Banks have conduc- ted joint research activities to bolster economic Sresearch on topics of mutual interest. Annual or multiannual joint research activities have been deve- loped in the following topics: i) Estimation and use of nonobservable variables in the region; ii) The deve- lopment of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; iii) The transmission mechanism of monetary policy; iv) Economic policy responses to the financial crisis; v) Inflationary dynamics, persistence and price and wage formation; vi) Capital flows and its macro- economic impact; vii) Asset pricing, global economic conditions and financial stability;viii) Monetary policy and financial stability in small open economies;ix) Monetary policy and financial stability; x) Monetary policy and financial conditions; andxi) Households’ financial decisions. These topics cover most of central banks’ main tasks and the developments and changes introduced since 2005.
    [Show full text]
  • Containing Chinese State-Owned Enterprises?
    Policy Research Working Paper 9637 Public Disclosure Authorized Containing Chinese State-Owned Enterprises? The Role of Deep Trade Agreements Public Disclosure Authorized Kevin Lefebvre Nadia Rocha Michele Ruta Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Development Economics Development Research Group & Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice April 2021 Policy Research Working Paper 9637 Abstract Regional trade agreements increasingly include provisions regulating state-owned enterprises signed by Chinese trad- that regulate state-owned enterprises. This paper combines ing partners with third countries increase exports and entry new information on the content of “deep” regional trade of Chinese state-owned enterprises as they gain a competi- agreements and data on Chinese firm-level exports during tive edge in regulated markets. This spillover effect is robust 2000–11 to analyze the spillover effect of rules on state- to several extensions and is even stronger for agreements owned enterprises on the intensive and extensive margins that include rules on subsidies and competition policy. This of Chinese state-owned enterprises’ trade. Rather than finding points to the need for commonly agreed multilateral containing state capitalism, regional trade agreements rules to regulate state owned enterprises. This paper is a product of the Development Research Group, Development Economics and the Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at [email protected]; [email protected]; and [email protected].
    [Show full text]
  • Regional Integration and Spillovers
    REGIONAL INTEGRATION AND SPILLOVERS Contents: East Asia and Pacific (China and Japan) Europe and Central Asia (Russia and Turkey) Latin America and Caribbean (Brazil and Mexico) Middle East & North Africa (Egypt and Turkey) South Asia (India) Sub-Saharan Africa (Nigeria and South Africa) REGIONAL INTEGRATION AND SPILLOVERS East Asia and Pacific G LOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS | JANUARY 2016 EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC 73 BOX 2.1.1 Regional integration and spillovers: East Asia and Pacific Countries in East Asia and Pacific (EAP) are deeply integrated with the global economy and with each other. China has become the largest trading partner and source of FDI for the region, although Japan remains one of the largest sources of FDI for several economies. Reflecting this integration, a growth slowdown in China could result in sizeable spillovers to a large number of countries, while a slowdown in Japan would primarily affect Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Slowdowns in major advanced economies outside the region could also have sizeable spillovers. Introduction FIGURE 2.1.1.1 Cross-region comparisons EAP is characterized by deep regional and global The region is open to global trade and finance. integration through trade and investment flows.1 The region accounts for about 25 percent of global trade A. EAP: Share of global activity, trade and finance, 2014 (Figure 2.1.1.1), and its economies are among the most integrated into global value chains. Intra-regional trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are substantial: in 2014, countries within the region accounted for 51 percent of the region’s trade and 44.1 percent of its FDI inflows.
    [Show full text]
  • Does Fixed-Term Employment Have Spillover Effects on the Well-Being of Partners? a Panel Data Analysis for East and West Germany
    A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Scheuring, Sonja; Voßemer, Jonas; Baranowska-Rataj, Anna; Tattarini, Giulia Article — Published Version Does Fixed-Term Employment Have Spillover Effects on the Well-Being of Partners? A Panel Data Analysis for East and West Germany Journal of Happiness Studies Provided in Cooperation with: WZB Berlin Social Science Center Suggested Citation: Scheuring, Sonja; Voßemer, Jonas; Baranowska-Rataj, Anna; Tattarini, Giulia (2021) : Does Fixed-Term Employment Have Spillover Effects on the Well-Being of Partners? A Panel Data Analysis for East and West Germany, Journal of Happiness Studies, ISSN 1573-7780, Springer, Berlin, Iss. Online First Articles, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10902-020-00353-2 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/229646 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte.
    [Show full text]
  • Spillover Effects in Experimental Data
    Spillover Effects in Experimental Data Peter M. Aronow, Yale Dean Eckles, MIT Cyrus Samii, NYU Stephanie Zonszein, NYU Abstract We present current methods for estimating treatment effects and spillover effects under “interference”, a term which covers a broad class of situations in which a unit’s outcome depends not only on treatments received by that unit, but also on treatments received by other units. To the extent that units react to each other, interact, or otherwise transmit effects of treatments, valid inference requires that we account for such interference, which is a departure from the traditional assumption that units’ outcomes are affected only by their own treatment assignment. Interference and associated spillovers may be a nuisance or they may be of substantive interest to the researcher. In this chapter, we focus on interference in the context of randomized experiments. We review methods for when interference happens in a general network setting. We then consider the special case where interference is contained within a hierarchical structure. Finally, we discuss the relationship between interference and contagion. We use the interference R package and simulated data to illustrate key points. We consider efficient designs that allow for estimation of the treatment and spillover effects and discuss recent empirical studies that try to capture such effects. arXiv:2001.05444v1 [stat.AP] 15 Jan 2020 1 1 Introduction We present current methods for identifying causal effects under “interference”, a term which covers a very broad class of situations in which a unit’s outcomes depend not only on treatments received by that unit, but also on treatments received by other units (Cox, 1958).
    [Show full text]
  • Collective Strategic Study on Issues Related to the Realization of the FTAAP
    2016 CTI REPORT TO MINISTERS APPENDIX 6 Collective Strategic Study on Issues Related to the Realization of the FTAAP November 2016 i TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of contents ii List of tables iv List of figures v List of boxes vi Abbreviations vii 1. Overview 1 1.1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Objectives of the study ................................................................................. 3 1.3 Structure and content of this report .............................................................. 3 2. Review of the APEC Region’s Economy ......................................................................................... 6 2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 6 2.2 Economic characteristics .............................................................................. 6 2.3 Foreign investment ..................................................................................... 15 2.4 Specialization and competitiveness ............................................................ 20 2.5 Has trade reached a peak? .......................................................................... 28 2.6 Conclusion ................................................................................................. 34 3. Next Generation Trade and Investment Issues ................................................................................ 36 3.1 Introduction ...............................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • International R&D Sourcing and Knowledge Spillover
    International R&D Sourcing and Knowledge Spillover: Evidence from OECD Patent Owners∗ Sophia Cheny Estelle Dauchyz April 2015 Keywords: R&D Spillover, Patent, R&D tax incentives, Firm productiv- ity JEL: O3, H25, E22 Abstract The effect of knowledge spillover for resident companies from in- ternational R&D activities has been scarcely studied because of data limitations and because knowledge spillover is traditionally viewed as being generated from inward foreign investment. This paper is the first to evaluate empirically international knowledge spillovers from out- ward R&D in OECD countries. Our estimations also offer a new way to measure a country's position in a network of international knowl- edge influence links, based on inward and outward, bilateral and mul- tilateral knowledge spillovers. We deal with the potential endogeneity issue of the innovation location decision in various ways, using sev- eral instruments including pre-sample patent applications|directly or indirectly owned|and R&D tax incentives. We find that foreign spillover effects are positive and significant overall. There is a large variation between countries. ∗We thank Alexey Khazanov and Alexander Tonis for great research assistance. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF. [email protected]. Research Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C., USA [email protected]. New Economic School, Moscow, Russian Federation 1 1 Introduction Most countries acknowledge that innovation is key to sustainable long-term growth. The Great Recession has reinforced existing trends in OECD coun- tries towards an increased support to innovation. While most OECD coun- tries still suffer from slow growth and significant fiscal constraints, they re- main committed to invest resources in R&D activities, including direct pub- lic spending and support for business R&D.
    [Show full text]
  • Estimation of an Equilibrium Model with Externalities: Post-Disaster Neighborhood Rebuilding∗
    Estimation of an Equilibrium Model with Externalities: Post-Disaster Neighborhood Rebuilding∗ Chao Fu and Jesse Gregory University of Wisconsin and NBER Abstract We study the optimal design of subsidies in an equilibrium setting, where the deci- sions of individual recipients impose externalities on one another. We apply the model to the case of post-Katrina rebuilding in New Orleans under the Louisiana Road Home rebuilding grant program (RH). We estimate the structural model via indirect infer- ence, exploiting a discontinuity in the formula for determining the size of grants, which helps isolate the causal effect of neighbors' rebuilding on one's own rebuilding choices. We find that the additional rebuilding induced by RH generated positive externalities equivalent to $4,950 to each inframarginal household whose rebuilding choice was not affected by the program. Counterfactual policy experiments find that optimal sub- sidy policies bias grant offers against relocation, with an inverse-U-shaped relationship between the degree of bias and the severity of damages from the disaster. ∗We thank Zach Flynn and Chenyan Lu for excellent research assistance. We thank Steven Durlauf, John Kennan, Chris Taber, and Jim Walker for insightful discussions. We thank the editor and two anonymous referees for their suggestions. We have also benefited from helpful comments and suggestions by seminar participants at Berkeley, the Cleveland Fed, Depaul, Duke, Iowa, Michigan, Penn, Rochester, Stanford-GSB, UCLA, UIC, UW-Milwaukee, and Wash U. All errors are ours. 1 Introduction Individuals' choices are sometimes inevitably and endogenously inter-related due to spillover effects from one's choices onto others' payoffs.
    [Show full text]
  • Identification and Estimation of Spillover Effects in Randomized
    Identification and Estimation of Spillover Effects in Randomized Experiments∗ Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare† June 17, 2021 Abstract I study identification, estimation and inference for spillover effects in experiments where units' outcomes may depend on the treatment assignments of other units within a group. I show that the commonly-used reduced-form linear-in-means (RF-LIM) regression identifies a weighted sum of spillover effects with some negative weights, and that the difference in means between treated and controls identifies a combination of direct and spillover effects entering with different signs. I propose nonparametric estimators for average direct and spillover effects that overcome these issues and are consistent and asymptotically normal under a precise relationship between the number of parameters of interest, the total sample size and the treatment assignment mechanism. These findings are illustrated using data from a conditional cash transfer program and with simulations. The empirical results reveal the potential pitfalls of failing to flexibly account for spillover effects in policy evaluation: the estimated difference in means and the RF-LIM coefficients are all close to zero and statistically insignificant, whereas the nonparametric estimators I propose reveal large, nonlinear and significant spillover effects. (JEL C10, C13, C14, C90) arXiv:1711.02745v7 [econ.EM] 15 Jun 2021 ∗I am deeply grateful to Matias Cattaneo for continued advice and support. I am indebted to Lutz Kilian, Mel Stephens and Roc´ıoTitiunik for thoughtful feedback and discussions that greatly improved the paper. I thank Cl´ement de Chaisemartin, Catalina Franco, Amelia Hawkins, Nicol´asIdrobo, Xinwei Ma, Nicolas Morales, Kenichi Nagasawa, Olga Namen and Doug Steigerwald for valuable discussions and suggestions.
    [Show full text]