Spillover Effect of Anti-Satellite Race in Asia Pacific and Way of Mitigating an Anti-Satellite Dilemma Through Economic

7th International Conference on Humanities and Social Sciences “ASEAN 2015: Challenges and Opportunities” (Proceedings) Spillover Effect of Anti-Satellite Race in Asia Pacific and Way of Mitigating an Anti-Satellite Dilemma Through Economic

1. Nur Hazlina Saad, National Defense University Of Malaysia, Malaysia, [email protected]

Abstract The development of anti-satellite weapons by China in 2007 to compete the United States space capability has posed a spillover effect in the Asia pacific region. The effect can emerge from the use of direct ascent, electric magnetic pulse, lasers, or jammers that could cripple a satellite system in the future. However, below the low orbit, majority of the Asia Pacific countries are enjoying economic activities and trading relationship whether within Asian countries or with the China or United States. The purpose of this paper is to review an economy interests among Asian countries as a determinant factor that could mitigate the spillover effect posed by anti-satellite race by U.S. and China in the Asia Pacific region. This paper argues that economic relationship among Asian countries is too good to be wasted as it has turns to be an important tool for prosperity and security of countries in the region whist U.S. also is exploring a bigger market with the countries in the region. It has shown that the economic factor plays an important role in preserving the regional stability for decades. Therefore, any decision on peace and conflict in the region must be deeply consider this vital factor.

Keywords: Mitigating space dilemma, economic cooperation in asia pacific, asia pacific strategic stability

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7th International Conference on Humanities and Social Sciences “ASEAN 2015: Challenges and Opportunities” (Proceedings)

Introduction This paper suggested the conceptual approach of the spillover effects of anti- satellite race between China and United States in Asia Pacific and current economic trend in the region can appears to be a factor that mitigating the effect. Research has shown that there is anti satellite arms race existing between U.S. and China, and therefore the method of resolution for the race should be bring into the table. Findings found that there are two signs of arms race between two countries, that there are security dilemma attributes has been developing since the – action and reaction – of anti satellites system occurs at times, and this event has bring the situation where a reasonable methods of solution need to bring into table to reduce the tension. Resolution that has been suggesting in this paper is economic cooperation that appears to be a vital factor that reduces the tension especially between China and its neighbour in Asia Pacific.

CONTEMPORARY U.S.- CHINA ANTI-SATELLITE RACE It is good to stress out that comparing to first space weapon arms race occurs between U.S. and Soviet Union during the period of Star Wars 1956-1991, the characters and features of anti-satellite weapons between U.S and China is very different because of many different factors and backgrounds. The countries are different, the regimes are different, the military doctrines are different, the foreign policy are different, space technology are different, space budget are different, threat of perceptions are different, geopolitical considerations are different, characters of leaders are different, space ambitions, perceptions of superpower, and perception of friends and foes also different. Such listed factors have play a very much important role to shape the decision to develop and own a very capable anti-satellite weapons and counter-anti satellite weapons. It is not easy to understand why a country have decided to have its own space weapons but perhaps such a list of factors would be able to provide a reader with such a basic knowledge about why one country acquiring space weapons.

However, in the world of uncertainty with such a predictable and unpredictable characters from leaders and states, together with such a revolution in military affairs in space technology and aspiration, alongside with changing environment in threat

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7th International Conference on Humanities and Social Sciences “ASEAN 2015: Challenges and Opportunities” (Proceedings) perception matters, and to cope with such a dynamisn in leadership characters and state’s foreign policy and grand strategy, it appears for some countries, like China and U.S, that anti-satellite weapons would appears to be an ultimate guarantee for their national security and survivality, not to mention the aspiration to preserve its national power and political influence as well as gaining a status of supremacy and compatibility status (for China and other countries, except U.S.).

While discussing about the methods of resolution for the dilemma of security occurs from U.S. and China anti-satellite arms race, it appears that a few methods has been preferred. They are code of Conduct in Outer Space, space treaties, deterrence mechanism, diplomacy confidence building measures, regional organisation role, and economic cooperation.

Different from anticipation between U.S and Soviet Union, apparently any methods that potentially proposed to reduce the ASAT arms race between U.S and China must have a consideration of economic interdependence between both respective countries, and between China and its neighbours in Asia Pacific because obviously any change and action in foreign policy and diplomacy would also have an impact into trading ties that has been developed since thirty years ago with his neighbour within ASEAN countries. Neither China’s action nor foreign policy should be perceived threatened his trading neighbour partner in Asia Pacific region.

In fact, China has also developed a deep consideration about his future ambition and positions that could affected his further opportunity as a member in Association of South East Asia Nations (ASEAN) as China has become second important trading partner after Japan with countries in this organisation. This economic character is so much different from competition between U.S and Soviet Union during space age as both countries previously hardly related to each other whether in political terms or economic wise because both countries clearly originally from a very different block of ideology and economic structure. While in the case with China, U.S. and China still have a slightly trading cooperation especially for consumer goods besides U.S. foreign investment in China mainland. Thus any changes in space policy or space-relations in either China or U.S. would have an impact towards political or economic relations, or

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7th International Conference on Humanities and Social Sciences “ASEAN 2015: Challenges and Opportunities” (Proceedings) future potential cooperation in mentioned areas. Clearly, the impact of space policy in both countries not as simple as in the age of competition between U.S and Soviet Union where competition might motivated from technological and power driven that allowed them to compete separately between two blocks of ideology without relation in any other area of state affairs.

IS THERE A CLEAR ANTI- SATELLITE RACE BETWEEN CHINA AND UNITED STATES? Out of all findings, there is little to agree that the degree of development of ASAT weapons of China and U.S. respectively has reach the phase of arms race.1 Even though the development is there, but it is very early to conclude that as a race. Therefore it lead to the little agreement about the level of existence of the race itself. However, due to the responses by the superpower like United States of America (U.S.), community of space warfare tend to perceived that the impact of the race is somewhat strong.2 So does the belief it would disrupt the stability of the Asia Pacific region. Thus, it has comes to the points now that space community tend to believe on their perception based on little sign of existence of ASAT itself. Perhaps that the cognitive decision lead to the such belief is related to the impact of the ASAT weapons itself as they could think it can be very lethal and highly disruptive. The image of the whole electronic system in the country will be left crippled may comes to their mind to define the level threat that ASAT weapons would posed. Not only the electronic system would be disrupted, the enemy also have the ability to strike back with a ballistic missile defence into home country without any sign of early warning that could be detected. This is far too dangerous to be thought, but then it is not the impossible level could be achieved by any ASAT power. Perhaps these types of threat has comes to the mind of space community to agree that ASAT weapons has carried a level of lethal capability with it even though the actual weapon race or the level of existence of the race would not been have clarify yet.3

1 Finding from interviews with scholars and military officers over the world. Refer Thesis prepared for Phd by Nur Hazlina Saad, Phd in Politics, University of Hull. Thesis would be submitted in July 2015. 2 Findings from Online Survey with scholars and military officers over the world. Refer Thesis prepared for Phd by Nur Hazlina Saad, Phd in Politics, University of Hull. Thesis would be submitted in July 2015. 3 Ibid.

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7th International Conference on Humanities and Social Sciences “ASEAN 2015: Challenges and Opportunities” (Proceedings) The paper also found that in order to look for solution of ASAT security dilemma in the Asia Pacific region, few factors have to be taken into consideration, that are geopolitical factors, role of superpower as security determinant in the region, and role of regional organization that tightened the common decision of majority states in the region. Besides, Asia Pacific also is based on accumulation of actors because ASEAN has been there for more than five decades, 'lame' but functional, factors that has played a role to shift any potential future conflict towards temporary cooperation by economic engagement. So does with case of U.S.- China space dilemma, again, economic is seen as factor that potentially mitigating the strategic issue.

ECONOMIC FACTOR TO MITIGATE THE ASAT RACE DILEMMA Economic factor has played a vital role to tighten the relationship between states in the Asia Pacific region. ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) now has been very attractive to be an influential stage where not only ASEAN countries but have attracted many great powers in the world to shared the opportunity to pursue their interests as well as gained the influence within the countries in the region. United States of America, China, Russia, Japan, Australia and India now has joined ARF – now to become a set of great countries in one concert of power – located in Asia Pacific.

The role of economic factor here can be seen as a 'bargaining tool' in the event of 'buying time' before the actual strategic event likely to be seriously discussed or an appropriate action will be taken later. Countries within Asia Pacific, whether they are superpower or not, they like to enjoy the massive economic opportunity and prosperity that comes right before their eyes while at the same time considerately abandon to discuss or seriously chat any possible methods of strategic solution or any each level of security dilemma.

This stand expectedly would be taken with one requirement - that neither power nor country will likely shaking this stability by any strategic action militarily or weaponry. Any sources of conflict would be seen very risky to regional strategic stability especially of the event that closely related to military or weaponry engagement. So does with ASAT testing in the region, countries may decided ASAT should not be

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7th International Conference on Humanities and Social Sciences “ASEAN 2015: Challenges and Opportunities” (Proceedings) taken into serious consideration until ASAT proven to be very threatened towards any of the national security of any country in the Asia pacific rim.

Countries in the region are likely to be perceived with attitude as ''wait and see'' on the issues of U.S. -China ASAT race. As long as ASAT by U.S. and China does not hit each other satellites systems directly, the dilemma remains to be there not only for both countries but the whole countries in the region. But to think that ASAT has posses a clear danger to any satellites or state's national security, the answer is no or not yet.4 But it does not mean that the potential threat could be deny as ASAT is potentially would appears to be an immediate determinant factor to engage with war or peace, killer mace that carrying an immediate shocking impact, or even to be a tremendous tool of spying activities that can be disguise inside other normal satellites.

But until these dilemmas and perceptions turns to be a reality, ASEAN and other Asia Pacific countries likely to enjoy the prosperity of economic opportunity among them. This is the strongest uniqueness of the Asia Pacific inter relationship, its provides the economic opportunity that plays a role of mitigating the dilemma or threat perception temporarily which hardly ever found in other particular region in the world, in the sense that any non-immediate strategic issues will possibly temporary mitigating into economic cooperation.

The ties is strange, against many logic of interstates relationships, but then seems to be a very operative to be done. Perhaps that economic prosperity is too hard to be waste especially in the shaky temporary economic uncertainties throughout the whole world. Whilst that not much worst for countries in the Asia Pacific where some of them holding a tight economic resilience based on inter-regional trading relationship. Japan has been well known for an established long term trading affairs with ASEAN countries like Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand; whilst besides Japan, ASEAN likely to trade among them since 1970s.

4 Findings from Online Survey with scholars and military officers over the world. Refer Thesis prepared for Phd by Nur Hazlina Saad, Phd in Politics, University of Hull. Thesis would be submitted in July 2015.

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7th International Conference on Humanities and Social Sciences “ASEAN 2015: Challenges and Opportunities” (Proceedings) Because of range of trading friends and goods are not so much depends to very outside-region market, the risks of trading activities much easily predicted so does the rules and regulation, and the action to prevent the economic ties to face outside-the- region economic crises or uncertainties could be organised.

The region of Asia Pacific also considerably a very prosper region with economic opportunities. Crops, oil, textile, goods, cars, technology devices – all of them are easily found within the region which will be the reason for countries in Asia Pacific considerably less interested to trade with countries from other region. However, the region is still very keen to import all sorts of military weapons and equipment from first world countries especially United States, Israel, France or even Russia. ASAT is one of the weapons and equipment mentioned. China has the reputation of acquiring possibly ASAT weapons from Soviet Union’s military forces, besides from Europe and Brazil.

China also has over known for a country with the ability to reconstruct weapon they bought up to their military and security requirement. For example, ballistic missile defense and element of small but can kill ‘mace’. With this ability in current time and future, China is expected to be a very productive weapon producer for their own use or weapon trading in the region. Economically this will effect the arms business of the United States in the Asia Pacific region when countries in the regions will turns to china to buy one in the future. With few patches of potential future conflict in the region – China-Taiwan disputes, disputes over reefs and barriers in South China Sea (which China also involved), North Korea nuclear development, and unpredictable future behaviour between Japan and China – the United States has to ensure that their arms market that has been dominated since five decades with the Asia Pacific customers including ASEAN countries would not be jeopardised by any means or by any country U.S has to established their power and influence through the continuous arms trade and physical participation in workable organisation in the region such as ASEAN.

Conclusion To conclude, Asia Pacific is a very unique but special region. The type of concert of power practices among the countries has been proven to keep the region calm and peaceful. However, with new ambition of China - in terms of military and strategically –

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7th International Conference on Humanities and Social Sciences “ASEAN 2015: Challenges and Opportunities” (Proceedings) its become the country has to be carefully review while United States likely to continuously enjoying a freedom to maintain its strategic influence and trading prosperity with the countries in the region. Any gesture especially in military terms that seen will outpass this limit generally will be seen as a sign of instability. Until then, regarding the issues mentioned above, the region remained in dilemma of security.

References Phd Thesis by Nur Hazlina Saad, on U.S-China ASAT Weapons Arms Race Undermines Asia Pacific Strategic Stability, Phd in Politics in the University of Hull, expected to be submitted in July 2015.

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