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International Spillovers of Monetary Policy Editors: Ángel Estrada García Alberto Ortiz Bolaños

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International Spillovers of Monetary Policy Editors: Ángel Estrada García Alberto Ortiz Bolaños BANCO DE ESPAÑA Eurosistema Joint Research Program XX Meeting of the Central Bank Researchers Network of the Americas International Spillovers of Monetary Policy Editors: Ángel Estrada García Alberto Ortiz Bolaños International Spillovers of Monetary Policy International Spillovers of Monetary Policy JOINT RESEARCH PROGRAM CENTRAL BANK RESEARCHERS NETWORK CENTER FOR LATIN AMERICAN MONETARY STUDIES Editors Ángel Estrada García Executive Coordinator, Associate Directorate General International Affairs, Banco de España <[email protected]> Alberto Ortiz Bolaños Manager of Economic Research Department, cemla Research Professor, egade Business School <[email protected]> First edition, 2017 © Center for Latin American Monetary Studies, 2017 Durango núm. 54, Colonia Roma Norte, Delegación Cuauhtémoc, 06700 Ciudad de México, México. All rights reserved ISBN: 978-607-7734-84-0 (print) ISBN: 978-607-7734-88-8 (online) Printed and made in Mexico vi PREFACE ince 2005 cemla’s Central Banks have conduc- ted joint research activities to bolster economic Sresearch on topics of mutual interest. Annual or multiannual joint research activities have been deve- loped in the following topics: i) Estimation and use of nonobservable variables in the region; ii) The deve- lopment of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; iii) The transmission mechanism of monetary policy; iv) Economic policy responses to the financial crisis; v) Inflationary dynamics, persistence and price and wage formation; vi) Capital flows and its macro- economic impact; vii) Asset pricing, global economic conditions and financial stability;viii) Monetary policy and financial stability in small open economies;ix) Monetary policy and financial stability; x) Monetary policy and financial conditions; andxi) Households’ financial decisions. These topics cover most of central banks’ main tasks and the developments and changes introduced since 2005. In this respect, the response of central banks in advanced economies to the global financial crisis, ba- sically low interest rates and unconventional policies, marked a radical change in the traditional approach to monetary policy. Among other things, concerning for example objectives and instruments, the idea that a central bank can abstract from the consequences that its decisions could have on other economies was clearly called into question. Along these lines, the crisis gave also rise to a growing interest to understand the inter- national spillovers of monetary policy. In this context, in the 2014 Meeting of cemla’s Re- search Network, cemla’s Central Banks decided that vii starting in 2015 they would conduct joint research on international spillovers of monetary policy. The Asso- ciate Directorate General International Affairs of Ban- co de España, with technical assistance from cemla, coordinated this joint research. Researchers from the Central Banks of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, England, Europe (European Central Bank), Guatemala, Jamaica, Mexico, Peru, Spain and Uruguay participated in the activities of this joint research. Research work was supported by webinars of academic specialists, virtual meetings where research progress was presented, a workshop at cemla, presentations and discussions at the 2015 cemla Research Network Meeting hosted by the Ban- co Central de República Dominicana and an internal blind review process. The documents that integra- te this book represent a memoir of the work done by this group of researchers and it gives a comprehensi- ve analysis of the spillover effects of us monetary po- licy in Latin America and the Caribbean. This book, in line with cemla’s objectives, promotes a better un- derstanding of monetary and banking matters in La- tin America and the Caribbean. Fernando Tenjo Galarza General Director cemla viii EDITORS Ángel Estrada García He currently works as Executive Coordinator of Interna- tional Affairs at the Banco de España. Among others, he is responsible for defining and supervising the department’s research agenda. Ángel Estrada has a long research experience, having pub- lished articles in specialized journals such as imf Economic Review, Journal of Financial Stability or Series. At present, its areas of research are global imbalances and different as- pects of macroprudential policies. Most of his professional career has developed in different departments of the Banco de España. Initially he was respon- sible for the short/medium-term developments of the Span- ish economy, including forecasts. At that time, he developed various models of forecasting and simulation of the Spanish economy to different horizons. Afterwards, he specialized in the long-term challenges of the Spanish economy, build- ing tools to assess the impact of different structural reforms. In the following years, he left the Banco de España to be advisor to the President of the Government of Spain. There, he was responsible for the coordination of policies aimed at enhancing the productivity of the Spanish economy. Subse- quently, he was appointed Director General of Macroeconom- ics and International Economics at the Ministry of Economy and Finance. In that position he had to draw up yearly the Stability Program for the Spanish economy, evaluate the Na- tional Reform Program and represent Spain in various inter- national economic forums such as the European Union, the oecd and the G20. Upon his return to the Banco de España he worked on the implementation of operational aspects re- lated to macroprudential policies, before joining the Associ- ate Directorate General of International Affairs. Ángel Estrada holds a Master degree in Monetary and Fi- nancial Economics from the Center for Monetary and Finan- cial Studies (cemfi) and a degree in Economics and Business from the Universidad Complutense de Madrid. ix Alberto Ortiz Bolaños Manager of Economic Research at the Center for Latin Ame- rican Monetary Studies (cemla) and Research Professor at egade Business School of Tecnológico de Monterrey. His main research areas are 1) the study of macrofinancial linkages; 2) the measurement of the sources of economic fluc- tuations in emerging markets; and 3) the analysis of macro- economic and financial regulation policies. Among others phenomena, he has analyzed the economic consequences of credit market imperfections and the role of monetary policy and credit contract indexation in economic stabilization; has compared the relative importance of do- mestic and foreign factors in emerging market economic fluctuations and the role and interaction of monetary and fiscal policies for economic outcomes; and has also studied the determinants of capital buffers in a panel of more than 7,000 banks across 143 countries and he has analyzed the role of banks’ net stable funding ratio in explaining future financial instability. At cemla, Dr. Ortiz conducts research in the above men- tioned areas, coordinates conferences, seminars, courses and research related activities. A big part of his efforts are aimed at supporting the coordination of research activities among central bank researchers from cemla’s membership, including: the Joint Research program, the internship pro- gram and the on-line research seminars. Regarding his academic activies, Dr. Ortiz has taught courses on Microeconomics of Banking, Market Failure in Financial Markets, Macroeconomic Theory, Money and Bank- ing, Open Macroeconomics, Economic Development, Math- ematical Methods for Economists, Economic Environment of the Organization, Fundamentals of Global Business, Funda- mentals of Economics and International Financial Policy at Boston University, Oberlin College and Harvard University. He earned his Ph.D. in Economics from Boston University in 2009, having previously acquired a Master Degree in Poli- tical Economy at the same institution and a Bachelor Degree in Economics from the Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (cide) in 2002. x Introduction Ángel Estrada García Alberto Ortiz Bolaños he current tasks of central banks officials have become much more complex than they used to Tbe before the Great Recession. Not only new pos- sibilities have been added to the toolkit of the policy- maker (quantitative easing, forward guidance, among others), but also the international dimension seems to be more relevant now. On the one hand, before the Great Recession, monetary policy was implemented exclusively through changes in official interest rates in order to meet some established domestic objectives in the long run: price stability and, for some central banks, maximum employment. Interest rates affect business and household decisions through changes in liquidity and the assets portfolio; thus, the challenge for the monetary authorities was to determine the magnitude of the tightening or relaxation of mone- tary conditions, minimizing the uncertainty for other domestic agents on the path that these financial con- ditions will follow. On the other hand, in normal times, central banks in each country make their monetary policy decisions solely in response to their domestic conditions and, according to some scholars, this was the best way to stabilize global demand. Traditionally, it was consi- dered that trade was the main transmission channel of a central bank’s decisions to the rest of the world. 1 Thus, as a monetary tightening (relaxation) in a particular country reduces (increases) its gdp, it also diminishes (increases) the exter- nal demand from the rest of the world. Obviously, the other coun- tries would be more or
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