Knut Wicksell the Birth of Modern Monetary Policy
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Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions by Irving Fisher
THE DEBT-DEFLATION THEORY OF GREAT DEPRESSIONS BY IRVING FISHER INTRODUCTORY IN Booms and Depressions, I have developed, theoretically and sta- tistically, what may be called a debt-deflation theory of great depres- sions. In the preface, I stated that the results "seem largely new," I spoke thus cautiously because of my unfamiliarity with the vast literature on the subject. Since the book was published its special con- clusions have been widely accepted and, so far as I know, no one has yet found them anticipated by previous writers, though several, in- cluding myself, have zealously sought to find such anticipations. Two of the best-read authorities in this field assure me that those conclu- sions are, in the words of one of them, "both new and important." Partly to specify what some of these special conclusions are which are believed to be new and partly to fit them into the conclusions of other students in this field, I am offering this paper as embodying, in brief, my present "creed" on the whole subject of so-called "cycle theory." My "creed" consists of 49 "articles" some of which are old and some new. I say "creed" because, for brevity, it is purposely ex- pressed dogmatically and without proof. But it is not a creed in the sense that my faith in it does not rest on evidence and that I am not ready to modify it on presentation of new evidence. On the contrary, it is quite tentative. It may serve as a challenge to others and as raw material to help them work out a better product. -
Interest Rates and Expected Inflation: a Selective Summary of Recent Research
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 3, number 3 Volume Author/Editor: NBER Volume Publisher: NBER Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/sarg76-1 Publication Date: 1976 Chapter Title: Interest Rates and Expected Inflation: A Selective Summary of Recent Research Chapter Author: Thomas J. Sargent Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c9082 Chapter pages in book: (p. 1 - 23) 1 THOMAS J. SARGENT University of Minnesota Interest Rates and Expected Inflation: A Selective Summary of Recent Research ABSTRACT: This paper summarizes the macroeconomics underlying Irving Fisher's theory about tile impact of expected inflation on nomi nal interest rates. Two sets of restrictions on a standard macroeconomic model are considered, each of which is sufficient to iniplv Fisher's theory. The first is a set of restrictions on the slopes of the IS and LM curves, while the second is a restriction on the way expectations are formed. Selected recent empirical work is also reviewed, and its implications for the effect of inflation on interest rates and other macroeconomic issues are discussed. INTRODUCTION This article is designed to pull together and summarize recent work by a few others and myself on the relationship between nominal interest rates and expected inflation.' The topic has received much attention in recent years, no doubt as a consequence of the high inflation rates and high interest rates experienced by Western economies since the mid-1960s. NOTE: In this paper I Summarize the results of research 1 conducted as part of the National Bureaus study of the effects of inflation, for which financing has been provided by a grait from the American life Insurance Association Heiptul coinrnents on earlier eriiins of 'his p,irx'r serv marIe ti PhillipCagan arid l)y the mnibrirs Ut the stall reading Committee: Michael R. -
American Economic Association
American Economic Association /LIH&\FOH,QGLYLGXDO7KULIWDQGWKH:HDOWKRI1DWLRQV $XWKRU V )UDQFR0RGLJOLDQL 6RXUFH7KH$PHULFDQ(FRQRPLF5HYLHZ9RO1R -XQ SS 3XEOLVKHGE\$PHULFDQ(FRQRPLF$VVRFLDWLRQ 6WDEOH85/http://www.jstor.org/stable/1813352 $FFHVVHG Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at http://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=aea. Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. American Economic Association is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The American Economic Review. http://www.jstor.org Life Cycle, IndividualThrift, and the Wealth of Nations By FRANCO MODIGLIANI* This paper provides a review of the theory Yet, there was a brief but influential inter- of the determinants of individual and na- val in the course of which, under the impact tional thrift that has come to be known as of the Great Depression, and of the interpre- the Life Cycle Hypothesis (LCH) of saving. -
Marginal Revolution
MARGINAL REVOLUTION It took place in the later half of the 19th century Stanley Jevons in England, Carl Menger in Austria and Leon walras at Lausanne, are generally regarded as the founders of marginalist school Hermann Heinrich Gossen of Germany is considered to be the anticipator of the marginalist school The term ‘Marginal Revolution’ is applied to the writings of the above economists because they made fundamental changes in the apparatus of economic analysis They started looking at some of the important economic problems from an altogether new angle different from that of classical economists Marginal economists has been used to analyse the single firm and its behavior, the market for a single product and the formation of individual prices Marginalism dominated Western economic thought for nearly a century until it was challenged by Keynesian attack in 1936 (keynesian economics shifted the sphere of enquiry from micro economics to macro economics where the problems of the economy as a whole are analysed) The provocation for the emergence of marginalist school was provided by the interpretation of classical doctrines especially the labour theory of value and ricardian theory of rent by the socialists Socialists made use of classical theories to say things which were not the intention of the creators of those theories So the leading early marginalists felt the need for thoroughly revising the classical doctrines especially the theory of value They thought by rejecting the labour theory of value and by advocating the marginal utility theory of value, they could strike at the theoretical basis of socialism Economic Ideas of Marginalist School This school concentrated on the ‘margin’ to explain economic phenomena. -
Macroeconomic Dynamics at the Cowles Commission from the 1930S to the 1950S
MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS AT THE COWLES COMMISSION FROM THE 1930S TO THE 1950S By Robert W. Dimand May 2019 COWLES FOUNDATION DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 2195 COWLES FOUNDATION FOR RESEARCH IN ECONOMICS YALE UNIVERSITY Box 208281 New Haven, Connecticut 06520-8281 http://cowles.yale.edu/ Macroeconomic Dynamics at the Cowles Commission from the 1930s to the 1950s Robert W. Dimand Department of Economics Brock University 1812 Sir Isaac Brock Way St. Catharines, Ontario L2S 3A1 Canada Telephone: 1-905-688-5550 x. 3125 Fax: 1-905-688-6388 E-mail: [email protected] Keywords: macroeconomic dynamics, Cowles Commission, business cycles, Lawrence R. Klein, Tjalling C. Koopmans Abstract: This paper explores the development of dynamic modelling of macroeconomic fluctuations at the Cowles Commission from Roos, Dynamic Economics (Cowles Monograph No. 1, 1934) and Davis, Analysis of Economic Time Series (Cowles Monograph No. 6, 1941) to Koopmans, ed., Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models (Cowles Monograph No. 10, 1950) and Klein’s Economic Fluctuations in the United States, 1921-1941 (Cowles Monograph No. 11, 1950), emphasizing the emergence of a distinctive Cowles Commission approach to structural modelling of macroeconomic fluctuations influenced by Cowles Commission work on structural estimation of simulation equations models, as advanced by Haavelmo (“A Probability Approach to Econometrics,” Cowles Commission Paper No. 4, 1944) and in Cowles Monographs Nos. 10 and 14. This paper is part of a larger project, a history of the Cowles Commission and Foundation commissioned by the Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics at Yale University. Presented at the Association Charles Gide workshop “Macroeconomics: Dynamic Histories. When Statics is no longer Enough,” Colmar, May 16-19, 2019. -
Imputation and Value in the Works of Menger, Böhm-Bawerk and Wieser
E-LOGOS/2005 ISSN 1121-0442 _____________________________________________ Imputation and Value in the works of Menger, Böhm-Bawerk and Wieser Šimon Bi ľo University of Economics, Prague [email protected] Alford Fellow, The Ludwig von Mises Institute, July 21, 2004 Version January 10, 2005 1 Abstract: Analysis of the discussions within the first two generations of the Austrian school of economics constitutes an inevitable cornerstone of every further inquiry on the fields of the theory of value and imputation theory. Only with knowledge of Menger’s, Wieser’s and Böhm-Bawerk’s understanding of cardinalism and problems related with utility, value and their interdependence, we are apt to understand correctness or incorrectness of their positions and also positions of their followers. Thus, we could trace back cardinalist notions of utility seeded by Menger and understand later Mises’- Čuhel reformulation of the whole value theory into an ordinalistic one. Mises fully escaped the Mengerian tradition in this point and also transformed the whole theory of imputation into the theory of pricing of the factors of production. The only exception, from the point of view of imputation theory of highest importance, is his insistence on the value equation of means and ends that confused his successors and was investigated only recently. Within the context of present state of value and imputation theories, two related problems arise: “What constitutes theory of imputation, theory of value and valuation of the factors of production, today?” and “Is Menger-Böhm-Bawerkian solution of imputation theory really suitable for the explanation of the pricing process and isn’t Wieser’s objection of circularity of the imputation theory applied in price-creation justified?” These are the questions that are badly needed to be answered in order to clarify the theory in the field. -
Texte Intégral
Working Paper History as heresy: unlearning the lessons of economic orthodoxy O'SULLIVAN, Mary Abstract In spring 2020, in the face of the covid-19 pandemic, central bankers in rich countries made unprecedented liquidity injections to stave off an economic crisis. Such radical action by central banks gained legitimacy during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis and enjoys strong support from prominent economists and economic historians. Their certainty reflects a remarkable agreement on a specific interpretation of the Great Depression of the 1930s in the United States, an interpretation developed by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz in A Monetary History of the United States (1963). In this article, I explore the origins, the influence and the limits of A Monetary History’s interpretation for the insights it offers on the relationship between theory and history in the study of economic life. I show how historical research has been mobilised to show the value of heretical ideas in order to challenge economic orthodoxies. Friedman and Schwartz understood the heretical potential of historical research and exploited it in A Monetary History to question dominant interpretations of the Great Depression in their time. Now that [...] Reference O'SULLIVAN, Mary. History as heresy: unlearning the lessons of economic orthodoxy. Geneva : Paul Bairoch Institute of Economic History, 2021, 38 p. Available at: http://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:150852 Disclaimer: layout of this document may differ from the published version. 1 / 1 FACULTÉ DES SCIENCES DE LA SOCIÉTÉ Paul Bairoch Institute of Economic History Economic History Working Papers | No. 3/2021 History as Heresy: Unlearning the Lessons of Economic Orthodoxy The Tawney Memorial Lecture 2021 Mary O’Sullivan Paul Bairoch Institute of Economic History, University of Geneva, UniMail, bd du Pont-d'Arve 40, CH- 1211 Genève 4. -
Breaking the Mould: an Institutionalist Political Economy Alternative to the Neoliberal Theory of the Market and the State Ha-Joon Chang, May 2001
Breaking the Mould An Institutionalist Political Economy Alternative to the Neoliberal Theory of the Market and the State Ha-Joon Chang Social Policy and Development United Nations Programme Paper Number 6 Research Institute May 2001 for Social Development The United Nations Research Institute for Social Development (UNRISD) thanks the governments of Denmark, Finland, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom for their core funding. Copyright © UNRISD. Short extracts from this publication may be reproduced unaltered without authorization on condition that the source is indicated. For rights of reproduction or translation, application should be made to UNRISD, Palais des Nations, 1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland. UNRISD welcomes such applications. The designations employed in UNRISD publications, which are in conformity with United Nations practice, and the presentation of material therein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of UNRISD con- cerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The responsibility for opinions expressed rests solely with the author(s), and publication does not constitute endorse- ment by UNRISD. ISSN 1020-8208 Contents Acronyms ii Acknowledgements ii Summary/Résumé/Resumen iii Summary iii Résumé iv Resumen v 1. Introduction 1 2. The Evolution of the Debate: From “Golden Age Economics” to Neoliberalism 1 3. The Limits of Neoliberal Analysis of the Role of the State 3 3.1 Defining the free market (and state intervention) 4 3.2 Defining market failure 6 3.3 The market primacy assumption 8 3.4 Market, state and politics 11 4. -
Nine Lives of Neoliberalism
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Plehwe, Dieter (Ed.); Slobodian, Quinn (Ed.); Mirowski, Philip (Ed.) Book — Published Version Nine Lives of Neoliberalism Provided in Cooperation with: WZB Berlin Social Science Center Suggested Citation: Plehwe, Dieter (Ed.); Slobodian, Quinn (Ed.); Mirowski, Philip (Ed.) (2020) : Nine Lives of Neoliberalism, ISBN 978-1-78873-255-0, Verso, London, New York, NY, https://www.versobooks.com/books/3075-nine-lives-of-neoliberalism This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/215796 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative -
How Spatial Economics Abandoned Monetary Analysis*
Hamlet without the Prince? How Spatial Economics Abandoned Monetary Analysis* David Bieri†1,2,3 1School of Public & International Affairs, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA 2Department of Economics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA 3Global Forum on Urban & Regional Resilience, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA Preliminary and incomplete draft This version: May 2019 Abstract From the local income effects of mortgage refinancing to the regional transmission of monetary policy via house price dynamics, the Great Financial Crisis has been a powerful reminder that money and credit—always and everywhere—matter greatly for the evolution of the space-economy. Yet, with the classical dichotomy still embed- ded firmly in its theoretical core, the contemporary canon of spatial economics (from urban economics to geographical economics and regional science) has little to say about monetary phenomena and their spatial consequences. Such a disengagement with regional aspects of money and credit represents a distinct break with the intel- lectual tradition of a long ancestry of spatial economists, stretching as far back as the seminal writings of Heinrich von Thünen’s. In this paper, I illustrate this contention by examining the monetary content of the work of August Lösch (1906–1945)—one of the founding fathers of modern spatial economics. Indeed, questions about the spatial neutrality of money, its institutional governance, as well as its endogenous creation, are central elements to his work. In this sense, I argue that Lösch—as a stu- dent of Walter Eucken’s, Arthur Spiethoff’s and Joseph Schumpeter’s—represents an important branch in the long lineage of 20th century Continental monetary thought. -
Sleepy Hollow and the Arrovian Legend: Is There a Generalizable Relationship Between Concentration and Innovation?
United States of America Federal Trade Commission Sleepy Hollow and the Arrovian Legend: Is There a Generalizable Relationship Between Concentration and Innovation? Christine S. Wilson Commissioner, U.S. Federal Trade Commission Remarks at the Concurrences Event “Big Techs and Start-Ups: Where is the Innovation?” New York, NY September 12, 2019 The views expressed in these remarks are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Trade Commission or any other Commissioner. Many thanks to my advisors, Keith Klovers and Jeremy Sandford, for assisting in the preparation of these remarks. 1 I. INTRODUCTION Good evening! Many thanks to Concurrences and Nicolas Charbit for inviting me here today, to Frédérick Jenny for moderating, and to Isabelle de Silva for joining me in sharing thoughts on tonight’s topic. Specifically, we’ve been asked to address “Big Techs and Start-Ups: Where is the Innovation?”1 Given the growing focus on the acquisition of nascent competitors by large tech firms, the question is timely. Before I begin, I must give the standard disclaimer: The views I express today are my own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Federal Trade Commission or any other Commissioner. Many commentators assert that the acquisition of nascent competitors necessarily reduces competition. There are two strains of this argument. First, many today believe that small firms are inherently more innovative than large ones, so that the acquisition of a small firm by a large one necessarily reduces innovation.2 A few others have argued that some famous corporate behemoths, like AT&T and IBM, were less innovative before they faced antitrust suits.3 1 Of course, I am not the first sitting FTC Commissioner to consider the nature of innovation and its role in competition policy. -
From Smith to Menger to Hayek Liberalism in the Spontaneous-Order Tradition
SUBSCRIBE NOW AND RECEIVE CRISIS AND LEVIATHAN* FREE! “The Independent Review does not accept “The Independent Review is pronouncements of government officials nor the excellent.” conventional wisdom at face value.” —GARY BECKER, Noble Laureate —JOHN R. MACARTHUR, Publisher, Harper’s in Economic Sciences Subscribe to The Independent Review and receive a free book of your choice* such as the 25th Anniversary Edition of Crisis and Leviathan: Critical Episodes in the Growth of American Government, by Founding Editor Robert Higgs. This quarterly journal, guided by co-editors Christopher J. Coyne, and Michael C. Munger, and Robert M. Whaples offers leading-edge insights on today’s most critical issues in economics, healthcare, education, law, history, political science, philosophy, and sociology. Thought-provoking and educational, The Independent Review is blazing the way toward informed debate! Student? Educator? Journalist? Business or civic leader? Engaged citizen? This journal is for YOU! *Order today for more FREE book options Perfect for students or anyone on the go! The Independent Review is available on mobile devices or tablets: iOS devices, Amazon Kindle Fire, or Android through Magzter. INDEPENDENT INSTITUTE, 100 SWAN WAY, OAKLAND, CA 94621 • 800-927-8733 • [email protected] PROMO CODE IRA1703 From Smith to Menger to Hayek Liberalism in the Spontaneous-Order Tradition —————— ✦ —————— STEVEN HORWITZ ately, thinkers from both the political left and the political right have increas- ingly been making critical comments about the Enlightenment and the politi- Lcal liberalism normally associated with it. Many of these criticisms center around the concern that the tradition of Enlightenment liberalism portrays human beings as hyperrational or extremely atomized.