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September 4, 2019

Public sector banks consolidation - Reorganised in one shot

In a move towards consolidation in the Indian banking sector, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a big bang move with second course of amalgamation among PSU banks. According to the

announcement, PNB is to merge OBC, United Bank of India while Canara Bank will consolidate Syndicate Bank. In another instance, Union Bank of India is to merge Andhra Bank, Corporation Bank while Indian Bank,

Allahabad Bank are to amalgamate together. Capital adequacy, geography, Update Sector technology are factors at the core of the decision on selection of banks. Post the three-way merger viz. Bank of Baroda, Vijaya Bank and Dena Bank, GoI has gone ahead full steam with more amalgamations down-sizing 10 PSU banks into four larger players. On an overall basis, the number of PSU banks will reduce from 18 to 11. Other PSU banks comprising Uco Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, IoB, Punjab & Sind Bank, Central Bank of India, Bank of India will continue to operate as independent regional entities. Overall, merger seems positive in long term. The respective boards of banks will need to approve and then decide the contours of the swap ratio along with the timeline for completion of merger, record date, etc.

Exhibit 1: Announced mergers of PSU banks

Business Size Anchor Bank Amalgamating Banks PSB rank by size CBS NNPA (%) CRAR (%) (| lakh crore) Oriental Bank of Commerce Punjab National Bank 17.94 2 Finacle 6.61 10.77 & United Bank of India

Canara Bank Syndicate Bank 15.2 4 Iflex 5.62 12.63

Andhra Bank & Corporation Union Bank of India 14.59 5 Finacle 6.3 12.39 Bank

Indian Bank Allahabad Bank 8.08 7 BaNCS 4.39 12.89

Research Equity Retail Source: GoI, ICICI Direct Research – Our view Research Analyst Broad calculations indicate dilution for anchor banks, which is to moderate Kajal Gandhi post fresh capital allocation. In case of 1) Indian Bank + Allahabad bank & 2) [email protected]

Canara + Syndicate Bank, anchor banks are expected to witness 15-20% Vishal Narnolia impact on ABV. Therefore, Canara Bank (15% impact on ABV) and Indian [email protected]

Bank (18% impact on ABV) are expected to witness negative pressure. These Securities ICICI are estimated after factoring fresh in capital infusion of | 2500 crore and Harsh Shah [email protected] | 6500 crore, respectively, for merged entities. In case of amalgamation with PNB and Union Bank, dilution due to merger has not impacted ABV. However, fresh capital infusion is seen to lead to substantial positive revision in ABV by ~20% for PNB and over ~40% for Union Bank. NPA concerns in merged bank may rise in future and result in different estimates. The banks getting acquired are expected to remain positive considering amalgamation in large bank. The recent correction in PSU banks has largely captured the pains though continuous dilution remains an overhang. Uco, IOB, Central Bank of India and BoM, with high NPAs and left unmerged can see a negative reaction. Swap ratio based on current market price is expected as follows (broad estimations- final ratios can differ basis market price changes ahead) 1. Allahabad Bank shareholders to get 176 shares of Indian Bank for every 1000 shares of Allahabad Bank 2. Syndicate Bank shareholders to get 140 shares of Canara Bank for every 1000 shares of Syndicate Bank Sector Update | Banking ICICI Direct Research

3. Oriental Bank (OBC) shareholders to get 1130 shares of PNB for every 1000 shares of OBC and United Bank shareholders to get 160 shares of PNB for every 1000 shares of United Bank 4. Andhra Bank shareholders to get 330 shares of Union Bank for every 1000 shares of Andhra Bank and Corporation Bank shareholders to get 320 shares of Union Bank for every 1000 shares of Corporation Bank

PNB has become a northern region leader, Canara a southern one while BoB is already a western region leader. SBI remains a pan-India leader. Eastern regional banks have been allowed to operate independently.

Exhibit 1: Announced capital allocation Bank of Baroda Capital Allocated (| crore) Punjab National Bank 16000 Union Bank of India 11700 Bank of Baroda 7000 Canara Bank 6500 Indian Bank 2500

IoB 3800 CBoI 3300 UCO Bank 2100 United Bank of India 1600 Punjab & Sind Bank 750 Total 55250

Source: GoI, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 1: PNB + OBC + United Bank

Source: GOI, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2 Sector Update | Banking ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 2: Canara + Syndicate Bank

Source: GOI, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 3: Union + Andhra + Corporation Bank

Source: GOI, ICICI Direct Research

Exhibit 4: Indian + Allahabad Bank

Source: GOI, ICICI Direct Research

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 3 Sector Update | Banking ICICI Direct Research

Price Chart

Punjab National Bank Oriental Bank of Commerce United Bank of India

14,000 250 14,000 200 14,000 30 12,000 12,000 12,000 200 25 10,000 10,000 150 10,000 20 8,000 150 8,000 8,000 100 15 6,000 100 6,000 6,000 10 4,000 4,000 50 4,000 50 2,000 2,000 2,000 5

0 0 0 0

Apr-17 May-19 Sep-19 Apr-17 May-19 Sep-19 Sep-16 Jan-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Sep-16 Jan-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Oct-18

Jan-19 0 0

Sep-16 Mar-18 Sep-19 Jan-17 Apr-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Jun-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 May-19

PNB (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S) OBC (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S) United Bank(R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S)

Canara Bank Syndicate Bank Indian Bank

14,000 500 14,000 100 14,000 450 12,000 12,000 12,000 400 400 80 350 10,000 10,000 10,000 300 300 60 8,000 8,000 8,000 250 6,000 200 6,000 40 6,000 200 150 4,000 4,000 4,000 100 20 100 2,000 2,000 2,000 50

0 0 0 0

Apr-17 May-19 Sep-19 Apr-17 May-19 Sep-19 Sep-16 Jan-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Sep-16 Jan-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Oct-18

Jan-19 0 0

Apr-17 May-19 Sep-19 Sep-16 Jan-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Jan-19

Canara Bank (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S) Syndicate (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S) Indian Bank (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S)

Allahabad Bank Union Bank of India Andhra Bank

14,000 100 14,000 250 14,000 80 12,000 12,000 12,000 70 80 200 10,000 10,000 10,000 60 8,000 60 50 8,000 150 8,000 6,000 40 40 6,000 6,000 4,000 100 30 20 4,000 4,000 2,000 50 20

0 0 2,000 2,000 10

Apr-17 May-19 Sep-19 Sep-16 Jan-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Jan-19

0 0

Apr-17 May-19 Sep-19 Sep-16 Jan-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Oct-18

Jan-19 0 0

Sep-16 Mar-18 Sep-19 Jan-17 Apr-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Jun-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 May-19

Allahabad Bank (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S) Union Bank(R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S) Andhra Bank(R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S)

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 4 Sector Update | Banking ICICI Direct Research

Corporation Bank Bank of Baroda UCO Bank

14,000 70 14,000 250 14,000 50 12,000 60 12,000 12,000 200 40 10,000 50 10,000 10,000 8,000 40 8,000 150 8,000 30 6,000 30 6,000 100 6,000 4,000 20 4,000 20 50 4,000 2,000 10 2,000 10

0 0 0 0 2,000

Sep-16 Mar-18 Sep-19 Apr-17 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-17 Apr-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Jun-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-16 Jan-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Jan-19

0 0

Sep-16 Mar-18 Sep-19 Jan-17 Apr-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Jun-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 May-19

Corporation Bank(R.H.S) Bank of Baroda (R.H.S)

Nifty (L.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S) UCO Bank(R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S)

Bank of Maharashtra Indian Overseas Bank Punjab & Sindh Bank

14,000 40 14,000 35 14,000 80 12,000 35 12,000 30 12,000 70 30 10,000 10,000 25 10,000 60 25 50 8,000 8,000 20 8,000 20 40 6,000 6,000 15 6,000 15 30 4,000 10 4,000 10 4,000 20 2,000 5 2,000 2,000 5 10

0 0

Sep-16 Mar-18 Sep-19 Jan-17 Apr-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Jun-18 Oct-18 Jan-19

May-19 0 0

Sep-16 Mar-18 Sep-19 Jan-17 Apr-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Jun-18 Oct-18 Jan-19

0 0 May-19

Sep-16 Mar-18 Sep-19 Jan-17 Apr-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Jun-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 May-19

Bank of Maharashtra (R.H.S) Punjab & Sindh (R.H.S)

Nifty (L.H.S) IOB (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S)

Central Bank of India Bank of India

14,000 140 14,000 250 12,000 120 12,000 200 10,000 100 10,000 8,000 80 8,000 150 6,000 60 6,000 100 4,000 40 4,000 2,000 20 50 2,000

0 0

Apr-17 May-19 Sep-19 Sep-16 Jan-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Oct-18

Jan-19 0 0

Apr-17 May-19 Sep-19 Sep-16 Jan-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Jan-19

Central Bank of India (R.H.S)

Nifty (L.H.S) Bank of India (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S)

ICICI Securities | Retail Research 5 Sector Update | Banking ICICI Direct Research

RATING RATIONALE ICICI Direct endeavors to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock

Buy: >15% Hold: -5% to 15%; Reduce: -15% to -5%; Sell: <-15%

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research [email protected]

ICICI Direct Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai – 400 093 [email protected]

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