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MARKET SNAPSHOT BEEF Contents Australia 1 North America 5 Japan 9 Korea 13 China 17 Indonesia 21 South East Asia 25 European Union 29 MENA 33 © Meat & Livestock Australia, 2016. ABN 39 081 678 364. MLA makes no representations as to the accuracy of any information or advice contained in MLA’s Market snapshot and excludes all liability, whether in contract, tort (including negligence or breach of statutory duty) or otherwise as a result of reliance by any person on such information or advice. All use of MLA publications, reports and information is subject to MLA’s Market Report and Information Terms of Use. Please read our terms of use carefully and ensure you are familiar with its content. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION VISIT US ONLINE AT: www.mla.com.au or email us at: [email protected] MLA INDUSTRY INSIGHTS February 2017 MARKET SNAPSHOT BEEF Australia Australian consumers are increasingly cautious and price-sensitive. Disposable income has not kept pace with inflation, with wage growth stagnating. Growth in food sales, including in the meat category, is largely driven by population growth and price inflation. Beef consumption in Australia is facing some challenges and opportunities: • Australians remain the second-largest consumers • Social factors such as increased consumer of meat per capita, and the sixth-largest consumers consciousness of environmental impact, animal of beef in the world (Source: OECD). welfare, health concerns, and increased demand • Changing demography – including increased for food integrity provide opportunities to consider migrations from Asian countries where pork is the in red meat messaging. dominant protein, and an aging population who are • Beef value share remains steady as prices increase. avoiding red meat for health/functional/price reasons. Maintaining value share, and limiting decline in volume, • Increased competition from pork (marketing activity) and remain a challenge. chicken (price pressure) will continue to challenge beef. Population Households earning Meat 92.7kg per capita* consumption total meat protein** US$15000+ p.a. 1.27 1.10 21.9kg per capita* 24.3 10.3 11.1 0.70 0.71 in 2016 in 2016 in 2020 0.57 0.62 US$35000+ p.a. 0.25 0.23 25.6 9.1 9.8 Pork Poultry Beef Sheepmeat in 2020 in 2016 in 2020 2016 2020 In million tonnes cwt In million In million households Source: BMI Research, GIRA, 2016 estimate and 2020 projection Source: BMI Research, 2016 estimate & 2020 projection Source: BMI Research, 2016 estimate & 2020 projection * 2016e per person per year ** excluding fish/seafood Domestic utilisation Retail fresh meat Share of voice (share of produced volume) value share advertising spend 1407 1362 1246 1357 1343 1408 1390 1414 1370 1363 1398 1419 1611 1881 1889 1497 1426 1335 2016 2015 2016 2015 Beef – 36.7% Beef – 36.5% 684 655 725 752 760 719 742 760 726 713 766 731 733 751 717 663 623 636 Chicken – 26.0% Chicken – 26.6% Beef – 13% Beef – 20% Lamb – 13.4% Lamb – 13.2% Lamb – 6% Lamb – 9% Pork – 11.9% Pork – 11.3% Beef/Lamb – 4% Beef/Lamb – 10% Other – Other – 2011 2.1% 2.1% Pork – 41% Pork – 24% 2014 2013 2012 2015 2016 2001 2010 2007 2017f 2003 2004 2002 2008 2005 2009 2006 2000 Seafood – 8.6% Seafood – 8.8% Poultry – 32% Poultry – 24% Domestic Consumption Exports Turkey – 0.9% Turkey – 0.9% Seafood – 4% Seafood – 14% Veal – 0.4% Veal – 0.6% ‘000 tonnes cwt Source: ABS, MLA forecast f = forecast Source: Nielsen HomeScan MAT to 3/12/2016 vs. year ago Source: Nielsen AIS Dec 2014 – Nov 2016, via Universal McCann Price Sensitivity in Australian retail Per Capita Australia (all categories) meat price Disposable Income 50 2000 15000 pork 1500 chicken 12000 40 lamb 1000 Beef 30 9000 500 0 20 6000 2011 1995 2015 1990 2010 2014 2013 2012 2015 2010 2005 2000 Sep-12 Sep-16 2008 2009 2007 Sep-04 Sep-08 Sep-00 % Beef Lamb Chicken Pork Per capita Source: KANTAR Millward Brown BrandZ 2007-2015 Source: ABARES/ABS Source: ABS © Meat & Livestock Australia, 2016. ABN 39 081 678 364. MLA makes no representations as to the accuracy of any information or advice contained in MLA’s Market snapshot and excludes all liability, whether in contract, tort (including negligence or breach of statutory duty) or otherwise as a result of reliance by any person on such information or advice. All use of MLA publications, reports and information is subject to MLA’s Market Report and Information Terms of Use. Please read our terms of use carefully and ensure you are familiar with its content. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION VISIT US ONLINE AT: www.mla.com.au or email us at: [email protected] MLA INDUSTRY INSIGHTS Australia February 2017 1 Single person households Australians born overseas Median age in Australia 3.0 million 28.2% 2.5 million 24.6% of which over ¼ are 2.2 million from Greater China and 34 37 South-East Asia years years 2015 2020 2030 2011 2015 1995 2015 Source: ABS Source: ABS Source: ABS Consumers • Consumer demand for beef is affected by many factors, such Main reason for eating less red meat as demographic change, and changes in attitudes and beliefs towards food from family, friends, and the media. 45 40 Other reasons • Consumers are increasingly challenged to cut back on sugar, 35 NET Environment (Source: IPSOS and eat more natural, fresh and unprocessed foods 30 Food CHATS 2016). Consumers claim to want to see more food I don’t like the taste anymore 25 products that are “All natural” (Source: Nielsen – Eliminating the Unnatural 2016). % 20 I am concerned about the red meat industry’s treatment of animals “All natural” product claims doubled between 2009 and 2014 15 I am concerned about the eects of eating red meat on my health (Source: Mintel, quoted in Australian Food News October 2014). 10 I nd red meat too expensive for my budget • Regarding animal products, 60% of consumers claim 5 they want to avoid antibiotics/hormones – the number 0 one ranked concern (Source: Nielsen, ibid). Jun’14 Jun’13 Jun’15 Jun’12 Jun’16 Feb’10 • MLA research has shown that, when consumers are choosing Dec’10 meat, the attributes most closely associated with frequent Too expensive Health concerns consumption are that it is a “family favourite” and that it is Concerned about treatment of animals Don’t like the taste anymore “easy and convenient to prepare”. Environmental concerns (any) Other • When consumers are shopping for beef, the key information Source: MLA/Pollinate annual tracker 2010-2016 they look for on pack relates to freshness and price. • If the price barrier can be overcome, beef remains a very popular What things do What are attributes What key strengths meat choice that has pride of place in Australian hearts and consumers look for that are important does beef have? minds. While some concerns are on the rise, consumers generally on pack/on shelf for Australian feel very positive about the beef industry. when buying beef? consumers? (all protein) • However, social trends indicate an increasingly challenging future for beef in Australia. Is my/my family’s Is the most superior Colour of meat favourite meat meat Vegetarianism Is easy and Is an essential part • Vegetarianism is reportedly on the rise, with Roy Morgan Price per kg convenient to of a healthy diet for prepare growing children reporting in August 2016 that 11.2% of the population reported as vegetarian, up from 9.7% in 2012. However, Is the most superior Can be used in many Date packed meat different meals the definition was somewhat flexible, with the actual claim being “The food I eat is all, or almost all, vegetarian” – Consistent quality Freshness Tastes delicious standards a group more closely aligned to the term ‘flexitarian’. Consistent quality – MLA/Pollinate research suggested the number of pure Use by date Tastes delicious standards vegetarians is closer to 7%. Source: MLA Global Consumer Tracker, 2016 – 13% of current meat eaters claim to have been • There’s no doubt that price is a key barrier for Australians a vegetarian at some stage in the past. when considering beef, especially when compared to chicken – There is some interest in meat substitutes but the However, beef is seen as being more expensive than it actually market remains small. is (Source: MLA Domestic Consumer Tracker 2016). Protein Image Profiles +/-5 indicates relative strength or weakness Freshness -1 -5 3 6 -2 0 Cheaper -4 41 -7 -8 0 1 High nutritional value 3 -11 -2 10 -1 1 The animal is well-cared for 0 -9 4 -7 0 6 The industry is environmentally sustainable -3 -5 1 -2 0 4 Consistent quality standards 6 -2 5 -4 4 -4 Tastes delicious 5 1 7 2 -1 -9 Can be used in many different meals 8 12 -3 -8 -1 -8 Is easy and convenient to prepare 5 17 -2 -5 -1 -7 Low in fat -19 5 -15 23 5 6 Guaranteed safe to eat 3 -8 6 -9 3 3 Essential part of a healthy diet for growing children 10 3 -2 8 -4 -7 Is my/ my family’s favourite meat 2 13 5 -1 -2 -4 Is becoming more popular -15 -13 -1 -1 11 12 Is the most superior meat 11 -10 5 0 -3 0 I am willing to pay a bit more for this meat 2 -15 7 14 -5 0 Source: MLA Global Consumer Tracker, 2016 2 MLA INDUSTRY INSIGHTS Australia February 2017 Retail • The grocery retail industry is robust, with turnover totalling Place of fresh-meat purchase by average weekly customer $123 billion in 2016, forecast to rise 5.7% in 2017 (Source: IGD).