World Bank Document

Document of The World Bank F I L E r n

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized

Report No. 3594-iN

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT Public Disclosure Authorized

INDIA

CHAMBAL (MADHYA PRADESH) IRRIGATION II PROJECT Public Disclosure Authorized

July 16, 1982 Public Disclosure Authorized South Asia Projects Department Agriculture Division C

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

US$1.00 = Rupees (Rs) 9.00 1/

WEIGHTS AND MEASURES (METRIC SYSTEM) 2/

1 meter (m) = 3.28 feet (ft) 1 kilometer (km) 0.62 miles (mi) 1 hectare (ha) 3= 2.47 acres (ac) 1 million cubic meters (Mm ) = 810 acre-feet (ac-ft) 1 thousand million cubic feet (TMC) 28.32 Mm 3 1 cubic foot per second (cfs or cusec) = 0.028 cubic meters per second (m /s) 1 ton 1,000 kilograms (kg) 1 ton = 2,205 pounds (lb)

1/ The US Dollar/Rupee exchange rate is subject to change. Conversions of cost estimates in this report have been made at US$1.00 to Rs 9.0, which represents the projected exchange rate over the disbursement period.

2/ The Metric System has been used in most cases. However, India is still in the process of transition to the metric system; non-metric units are still widely used, and were also used in this report in cases in which a conversion to the metric system may confuse the reader. FOR OFFICIALUSE ONLY

ABBREVIATIONSAND ACRONYMS

ABC - Ambah Branch Canal ABM - Assistant Branch Manager ADC - Area Development Commissioner AG - Madhya Pradesh Accountant General AIBD - Ambah Intensive Block Development ARDC - Agriculture Refinance and Development Corporation AT - Augmentation Tubewells CADA- Command Area Development Authority CCA - Cultivable Command Area CWC - Central Water Commission EE - Executive Engineer ERR - Economic Rate of Return GOI - Government of India GOMP- Governwnt of Madhya Pradesh ICB - International Competitive Bidding ID - Irrigation Department of GOMP IDA - International Development Association IRC - Indian Road Congress JTA - Junior Technical Assistant LCB - Local Competitive Bidding LIC - Madhya Pradesh Lift Irrigation Corporation LMC - Left Main Canal MP - State of Madhya Pradesh O&M - Operation & Maintenance PMJ - Planning and Monitoring Unit PWD Public Works Department RCC - Reinforced Cast Concrete RMC - Right Main Canal SCF - Standard Conversion Factor STA - Senior Technical Assistant T&V - Training and Visit

This documenthas a restricteddistribution and may be used by recipientsonly in the performanceof their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World bank authorization. I INDIA

CHAMBAL (MADHYA PRADESH) IRRIGATION II PROJECT

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT 1/

Volume I -- Main Report

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No.

I. BACKGROUND...... *.a .. . a e...... 1 Agriculture in India ...... X.*...... I The State of Madhya Pradesh a. , 1 The Chambal IrrigationSystem ...... 2 Performance Under Chambal (MP) Phase I ...... 3

II. THE PROJECT AREA ...... 7 General ...... a...... *- a a ... a ...a...e 7 Climate ...... o...... o...... e...... aI ...... 7 Topography and Soils .. .a...... a.....a.*a a .. 8 Roads ....a ...... aa. .a ...... a...... * a.. 8 Land Holdings and Land Tenure ...... 8 Cultural Practices ...... aa.aaaa a aaa aaa.... 8 Groundwater Resources . .*...... e.. 9

III. THE PROJECT ...... 10 A. General .....a...... a a a...... so..a .... a .*.. 10 B. Detailed Features ..... *...... a...... a... 12 Ambah Intensive Block Development ..... so... 12 Irrigation and Drainage Network Improvements .. 14 Ravine Arrestation and Canal-side Plantations . 15 Roads ...... a a..a..a.. a aaa*...a....a....a.. 15 Monitoring and Technical Services ...... 17 C. Criteria for Design and Operations o... a.a. .aa. 18 Design Criteria .. aa.aa.... * a 18 Operation and Maintenance Criteria ...... 19 D. Implementation Schedule ...... a...... 21

IV. COST ESTIMATES AND FINANCIAL ARRANGEMENTS...... 21 Cost Estimates a...... *...... aa aa...... a. 21 Financing ...... * ...... aa..aa 22 Procurement .. a...... a...... a... a 0...... a .a .*..a.aa..a.a 23 Disbursements a....a...... aa.aa.. aa...aa...aa....a... 23 Accounts and Audits ..a.a.a.a.a.a a a a a aa a...... 24

1/ This report is based on the findings of an appraisal mission which visited India in November/December 1980 and comprised of Messrs. W.G. Rodger, Y.K. Choi, C. Helman and J. Yaron (:Bank) and W. Barber, P. Borrowman and L. Shanan (Consultants), with contribution by Messrs. G. Finlinson and M. Herman (Bank). - ii -

Page No.

V. ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT ...... 24 The Command Area Development Authority ...... 24 The Irrigation Department (ID) ...... 25 The MP Lift Irrigation Corporation (LIC) ...... 25 The Public Works Department (PWD) ...... 26 Agricultural Supporting Services ...... 26 Monitoring and Evaluation ...... 28 Water Management in the AIBD Area ...... 29

VI. PRODUCTION, FARM INCOMES AND COST RECOVERY ...... 30 Water Supply and Demand ...... 30 Agricultural Development ...... 31 Farm Incomes ...... 32 Impact on Rural Poverty ...... 32 Cost Recovery ...... 33

VII. BENEFITS AND JUSTIFICATION ...... 35 General ...... 35 Economic Evaluation ...... 36 Project Risk ...... 37 Environmental Effects ...... 37

VIII. RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 37

ANNEXES

1 SUPPORTING TABLES AND CHARTS: T-1 - Climatic Data T-2-10 - Cost Estimates T-11 - Project Components by Time (Implementation Schedule) T-12 - DisbursementL Schedule T-13 - Credit Allocation T-14 - Present and Projected Cropping Patterns T-15 - Area, Yield and Production T-16 - Economic and Financial Prices T-17 - Present Average Water Charges T-18 - Financial Crop Budgets for AIBD and Canal Improvement Areas T-19 - Typical Farm Models T-20 - Estimated Project Rent and Farm Budgets T-21 - Cost Recovery T-22 - Cost and Benefit Streams for ERR I T-23 - Cost and Benefit Streams for ERR II C-1 - Organization Chart: Irrigation Department Chambal

2 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

3 RELATED DOCUMIENTSAND DATA AVAILABLE IN THh PROJECT FILE - iii -

1BR £oU- - ChamDai kMadhva Pradesh) Irrigation II Project

IBR1D 15921 - Project Area

Volume II: Supplementary Data

Table of Contents

ANNEXES

4. Irrigation and Drainage Network Improvements 5. Water Supply and Demand 6. Groundwater 7. Ambah Intensive Block Development 8. Roads 9. Monitoring and Evaluation I INDIA

CHAMBAL (MADHYA PRADESH) IRRIGATION II PROJECT

STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT

I. BACKGROUND 1/

Agriculture in India

1.01 India covers some 3.27 million km of which 49% is cultivable and about 15% irrigated. India's population of about 700 M is growing at an annual rate of 2.2%. Since 1960, per capita income has grown at an annual rate of about 1.2% and reached USS240 in 1980. Although the average per capita income has slightly increased in recent years, there has been little change in the living standards of the vast masses of the urban and rural poor, who comprise about 50% of the population.

1.02 Agriculture is the dominant sector of the Indian economy and accounts for about 40% of the Gross National Product (GNP). It engages about 70% of the labor force and provides the base for about 45% of India's exports. During the last decade, the Government of India (GOI) has devoted considerable resources to agricultural development. To support agricultural growth, GOI has modernized and expanded its agricultural credit institutions and accelerated the development of irrigation. Its agricultural and rural development strategy gives a special emphasis to: (i) expansion of irrigated area; and (ii) concurrent implementing of suppor.tingprograms to optimize the use of land and water resources.

The State of Madhya Pradesh

1.03 Madhya Pradesh (MP) is India's largest state, covering an area of 44.3 M ha and having a population of about 52 M (1980). By most indicators this is one of the poorest states in India. Per capita income (Rs 896 in 1977/78) is about 77% of the all-India average. The literacy rate of 22% is among the lowest in India and the density of its health services is below the all-India average. The progress with provision of water supply in the villages and rural electrification has been slower than in the other States and the communication system is deficient. Economic growth has been lagging behind the rest of India and in the period 1970/71-1977/78 the Net Domestic Product grew at an annual rate of 1.8% compared to 7.2% for India as a whole. More- over, because population has increased at a higher rate (about 2.6% per annum) the per capita income actually declined in the same period by about 0.8% per annum. There was virtually no growth in the state's agricultural sector during that period compared with 3.4% for India. The agricultural sector which accounts for 55% of the State Domestic Product and employs about 80% of the working population dominates the State's economy. Therefore, it would be

1/ The all-India sectoral background has been presented in recent Bank Appraisal Reports and is not repeated here; MP sectoral background is discussed extensively in the appraisal report of Madhya Pradesh Medium Irrigation Project, Report No. 3260-IN. -2- hard to substantially increase the rate of economic growth without removing the constraints on agricultural growth especially through the expansion of irrigation and improved water management. The State accords a high priority to irrigation as a means of raising both agricultural production and the incomes of the rural population. Since the first Five Year Plan, this sector has received a large share of plan allocation, which is currently about 30%.

1.04 Bank Group Assistance. The Bank Group has been involved in the agricultural sector in MP through several previous International Development Asso- ciation (IDA) credits. The Madhya Pradesh Dairy Project (Credit 522-IN, US$16.4 M approved in December 18, 1974), supports development of dairy cooperatives in rural areas involving some 160,000 farm families throughout the State. Phase I of the Chambal (MP) Command Area Development Project (Credit 562-IN, US$24 M, June 20, 1975) was designed to improve the efficiency of water utilization in the command area of the Chambal River and bring additional areas under irrigation (detailed performance review is in paras 1.08 to 1.16). The Madhya Pradesh Forestry Technical Assistance (Credit 609-IN, US$4 M, February 26, 1976) was designed to assist in laying the groundwork for developing Madhya Pradesh's forestry resources. The Madhya Pradesh Agricultural Extension and Research Project (Credit 712-IN, US$10 M, June 1, 1977) was designed to reorganize and strengthen the agricultural extension service in 15 out of the State's 45 administrative districts and to improve and re-orient adaptive research. A second phase of that project (Credit 1138-IN, US$37 M, April 1981) which covers districts not included in the previous credit, has recently been approved. Since 1981 the Bank Group has become involved in irrigation development in the State on a sizable scale. The MP Medium Irrigation Project (Credit 1108-IN, US$140, March 26, 1981) supports development of medium irrigation projects throughout the State. The MP Major Irrigation Project (estimated cost US$439 M) which would finance a five- year time-slice of an irrigation development program in the Mahanadi River Basin has recently been approved. 1/

The Chambal Irrigation System 2/

1.05 The Chambal Irrigation System serves areas in the States of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. An Interstate Water Agreement provides for equal sharing of the Chambal River water between the two States. The headworks include a series of multi-purpose reservoirs in cascade on the Chambal River, the main dam being at Gandhisagar (MP) and the diversion point to the Chambal area at Kota (Rajasthan) where the Right and Left Main Canals (RMC and LMC) take off from the Kota Barrage. The RMC serves about 127,000 ha in Rajasthan before crossing into MP at Parvati, whereas the LMC serves solely a Rajasthan area of about 102,000 ha (Map 16044).

1/ The State has also benefited from several IDA supported Country-wide projects such as the Agricultural Refinance and Development Corporation (ARDC) line-of-credit projects, the National Agricultural Research Project and the Foodgrain Storage Projects.

2/ The following hierarchy of th,ewater distribution network is used in this report: main canal, branch canal, distributary, minor, sub-minor, watercourse and field channel. The minor conveys water to several sub-minors or watercourses. While most of the watercourses take off from a minor, some take off directly from branch canals or distributaries. - 3 -

1.06 The Chambal System canal networks were gradually completed over a period of about 10 years in the 1960's to the then prevailing Indian planning and design standards. The main objective was to provide "protective irrigation" during the monsoon (kharif) season followed by supplementary irrigation during the winter (rabi) months, largely to crops which were perceived to be relatively insensitive to water stress. The networks were unlined and had few head regulating and escape structures, with project water delivery points covering 40 ha or larger blocks of land and with inadequate outlet control features. Greater than anticipated canal seepage losses not only reduced the delivery capability of the primary conveyance system but also aggravated the seasonal waterlogging problems for which insufficient drainage arrangements were provided. The high water table at the end of the monsoon season prevented farmers from planting the winter wheat and mustard crops at the optimal time. The distributary canal design flow (discharge) capacities could not meet the critical peak water demands of HYV wheat and rice which developed rapidly in the upper parts of the irrigation blocks following the introduction of irrigation service. Water supply was further aggravated by enforced closures (often during high water demand periods) to repair breaches and remove aquatic weeds. Finally, the water allocation plans and associated canal operating procedures were not consistent with the reali- ties of the conveyance system capability and the irrigation demands resulting from the cropping pattern which had actually developed.

1.07 As a result of these deficiencies only 151,000 ha out of the planned 320,000 ha in the MP part of the Chambal System were irrigated by the canal network in 1974, and results in the Rajasthan part were similarly disappoint- ing. Growing perception of these difficulties led GOI and the Government of Madhya Pradesh (GOMP) to commence a program of remedial measures, the first phase of which obtained Bank Group assistance in Chambal (iP) Command Area Development Project (Cr. 562-IN) in 1975. This followed a similar involvement (Ln. 1011-IN) in Chambal Rajasthan in 1974. The project focussed on irrigation and drainage network improvements together with the introduction of systematic land development, soil conservation along the deeply incised Chambal River ravines, development of command area roads and strengthening of the Command Area Development Authority (CADA).

Performance Under Chambal (MP) Phase I (Cr. 562-IN)

1.08 General. The project was appraised in November 1974 and became effective in September 1975. It represented the first phase (time-slice) of a program to improve and complete the existing irrigation facilities, construct drainage works, provide on-farm development, improve the road system and provide agricultural supporting services (extension and research) throughout the project area. The physical targets set up at appraisal consisted of a part of the improvement works which were to be implemented over a period of 10-15 years and the magnitude of Phase I targets was largely affected by budgetary and implementation constraints. The project cost was estimated at US$46.6 M and the IDA credit approved was US$24.0 M. It was to be implemented over a three-year period ending December 1978 but, due to a slow organizational build-up, insufficient budget allocation and shortage of materials, the implementation period had to be extended. - 4 -

1.09 After implementation had picked up, it became clear that actual contingencies would be smaller than anticipated at appraisal and that higher physical targets could be achieved (except for on-farm development works, see para 1.11). Consequently GOMP revised the implementation targets (with IDA concurrence). The project was fully disbursed on May 6, 1981. The following table shows the main components and the physical progress made by the end of March 1981.

Appraisal Achieved by Achievement as Estimate March 1981 % of Appraisal

Canal Capacity Works - km 400 1,035 259

Canal Security and Protection Earthwork - '000 m 3 300 577 192 Masonary Lining - '000 m 120 116 97 Gunite Lining - '000 m 130 150 115 Masonary Lining - units 19 74 389

Canal Control

Cross Regulators - units 44 39 89 Escapes - units 11 6 55 Pipe outlets - units 3,000 2,573 86

Aquatic Weed Control RMC Canalization - '000 m 3 40 70% 70 Bhind Canalization - '000 m 160 73% 73

Drainage Works - km 760 1,150 151

On-Farm Development

Land Development - ha 12,000 5,735 48 Chak Drainage - ha 20,000 28,000 /a 140

Roads - km 191 440 230

Ravine Erosion Control - km 50 121 242

/a Completed by the end of June 1981.

1.10 The above data indicate that the project achieved most of its investment targets. The main exception is the on-farm development program which, as in most other Indian irrigation projects, has been difficult to implement (see below). Largely as a result of project works, the canal irrigated area increased from 168,000 ha in 1975/76 to about 189,000 in 1978/79 (compared to ±2K0OO ha targeted at appraisal). Drainage works have largely been completed, servi.,z about 28,000 ha (compared to a target of 20,000 ha). The all-weather rural roa_ network has increased by aboiut 440 km (appraisal target was 191 km). - 5 -

1.11 The on-farm development program was to include a "full package" of land leveling, construction of watercourses, drains and access roads inside the chaks and required realignment of farm boundaries. The "full package" works were to be financed through institutional credit and, as they included common works serving several farmers (e.g., watercourses), were to be undertaken only after agreement of 2/3 of the landholders had been obtained. However, implementation of the program encountered serious difficulties. Firstly, landholders strongly resisted consolidation and boundary realignment. Secondly, the cost of land leveling was relatively high and the reduction in fertility in the two years following consolidation imposed an additional financial burden on farmers. As most of the land is flat (less than 1% slope) fields can be irrigated without land leveling, but at a lower irrigation efficiency. This, however, has not concerned farmers since the present system of water allocation and water charge does not provide incentives for efficient water use. 1/ For these reasons the "full package" program did not make much progress and the target was reduced in September 1977 (with IDA concurrence) from 12,000 to 5,000 ha. The experience with the land development component indicates that: (i) land consolidation and realignment of boundary is a slow and complicated process and should be avoided where possible; (ii) the finance of common works through credit is a slow and difficult process; and (iii) the demand for credit for land development is likely to remain low.

1.12 With respect to the other components, the works aimed at increasing canal capacity, preventing breaches (canal security works) and blockages (weed control) were implemented according to the plan and appear to have improved irrigation water supply in the sections treated. however, it became clear that even after completion of such works water would fail to reach large areas downstream in a reliable way because of high seepage losses, a fact not anticipated at appraisal. The project officers indicate that the drainage works have improved yields considerably but data to quantify such improvement are unavailable yet. The benefits of the ravine erosion control works are obvious though also difficult to quantify. Finally there has been a considerable improvement in the road network which would be essential for supporting a "takeoff" in agricultural production.

1.13 Survey data on Phase I benefits are, at this stage, insufficient largely because the project has only recently been completed. However, a basis for future evaluation of project results has been created. The Monitor- ing and Evaluation Cell which was established under Phase I conducted a benchmark socio-economic sample survey of 216 farm households. 2/ The reference year was 1977/78 but because of data processing constraints a report was not

1/ Once the water had reached the farmer's field, he can irrigate his land without a time limit and upon completion, the water is turned over to the next field. Thus, the farmer can partially compensate for a low field irrigation efficiency resulting from an unlevel field by irrigating his field for a longer time (without paying an extra charge).

2/ Considering the wide variations in pre- and post-project farm benefits, the size of the sample appears to have been relatively small. issued until August 1980. 1/ If repeated after an appropriate interval (4-5 years) the repeater survey may provide some useful data on project results. More details on Phase I performance and the problems encountered will be presented in the Project Completion Report which is presently under preparation.

1.14 Water Management Studies. These studies were conducted under Bank guidance. The main objective was to study the present irrigation efficiencies and ways to improve them. The following results have been obtained:

(a) percolation losses in minors were extremely high; in rota- tionally operated u2lined ditches, losses were 9-30 cumecs/Mm2 (30-100 cfs per Mft ) in medium textured soils (sandy-loams, loams and clay-loams);

(b) in watercourses, 40-60% of the inlet flow was lost in the first 4,000-6,000 meters;

(d) chak delivery flows varied from 0.2 to 1.0 cfs 2/ and fluctuated during the irrigation of a chak; flow reaching tail-end fields seldom exceeded 0.2 cfs.

1.15 The studies have shown that while the present chak efficiency is low - generally in the range of 20-40%, it could be raised to 60-70% provided that:

(a) minors and watercourses are lined;

(b) chaks receive a minimum flow of 1.0 cfs at the outlet; and

These findings were utilized in the planning of Phase II.

1.16 Institutional Building. The CADA, following a prolonged gestation period during which it suffered frequent changes of its Chairman/Commissioner, has developed into one of the stronger command area organizations in India. The administration of CADA has been recently studied by tne Administrative Staff College of India. The main recommendations made were (report dated September, 1980):

1/ Such delays reduce the usefulness of survey results for decision maki,. Under the proposed project (Phase II) the monitoring and evaluation system would be strengthened co ensure timely analysis (paras 5.13 to 5.18).

2/ The Metric System has been used in most cases. However, India is still in the process of transition to the metric system and non-metric units are still widely used, and were therefore used in this repcrt in cases in which a conversion to the metric system may confuse the Indian reader. - 7-

(a) Strengthening of the planning and monitoring functions and creation of a Planning and Monitoring Unit;

(b) Establishment of a Project Coordination and Review Committee within CADA; and

(c) Creation of a Chambal CAD Board at State level; this board would serve as the top bedy for policy making, performance review, sanctioning and resource allocation.

The first recommendation is being adopted (para 5.13), while the other two have been under consideration by GOMP.

1.17 Preparation of Phase II. Phase I experience indicated that despite improvement works on the main conveyance system, water supply to large areas downstream continues to be insufficient and unreliable. A review of the groundwater situation indicated the existence of a considerable potential for conjunctive use of ground and surface water which could relieve water constraints in the downstream parts of the command area. A new perspective plan for the irrigation and road development of the Chambal area over the next 10 years was formulated by the CADA in 1980. The plan indicates that with the development of additional water resources (includiniggroundwater) up to about 280,000 ha could be successfully developed for canal irrigation within the major boundaries of the area covered by the canal network. GOI has requested Bank Group assistance for a Phase II project which includes elements of all of these components, and also provides for extension and upgrading of the drainage and rural road networks and further environmental improvement through ravine arrestation and canalside afforestation. This Phase II project is the subject of this report.

II. THE PROJECT AREA

General

2.01 The project area extends 300 km along the south bank of the Chambal River in Morena and Bhind districts and includes all the major towns of both districts (Map 15922). Its gross area is about 400,000 ha.

Climate (Annex 1, T-1)

2.02 The climate is sub-tropical with three distinct seasons: the kharif or wet season, the rabi or dry season and the hot weather or dry pre-monsoon season. The mean monthly temperatures range from 42'C in May to 8'C in January. The project area receives the major portion of its rainfall from the southwest monsoon which starts in early June and continues with some intervals till the end of September. There are considerable variations in both the amount and the distribution of monsoon rainfall. The beginning and the end of the monsoon vary from year to year and long dry spells frequently occur within the rainy season. The average annual rainfall is about 820 mm with 92% occurring during the wet season. These factors make irrigation essential for successful crop production throughout the cropping seasons. -8-

Topography and Soils

2.03 The area is flat and forms a gently inclined plain from southwest to northeast, with an average land slope of about 1%. The terrain is deeply eroded along the Chambal River and its main tributaries form deep channels. The soils are deep alluvial and fall into largely two main types: sandy loam soils (below 20% clay content) in the Ambah Branch Canal area and clay loam (20-40% clay content) to clay soils (40% above) in the Bhind Main Canal and Mau Branch Canal areas. Both soil types are neutral to moderately alkaline and generally low in organic matter and fertility. The sandy loam soils, which occupy about 55% of the project area, are suited for irrigated farming of mainly upland crops such as wheat, mustard, pulses, soybean, groundnut and potatoes because of their coarser structures and moderately higher perme- ability. The clay loam to clay soils are less permeable and poorly drained, and presently limited to irrigated paddy cultivation. The soils in about 7% of the project area are adversely affected by a high water table and poor drainage. Adequate drainage facilities are essential to enhance agricultural production in such areas.

Roads

2.04 At the commencement of Phase I, a reasonably good network of main roads served the command area. Therefore, the roads component of that project concentrated on providing village roads to feed this network. However, the growth in traffic resulting from the agricultural development activities in the area and the rise of the water-table have resulted in a serious deterioration of many of the main roads. An upgrading of the existing main roads would be required to facilitate further development of the project area.

Land Holdings and Land Tenure

2.05 The population of the project area is estimated at about 700,000 of which 90% is rural. The average size of a household is 6.7 persons. About 19% of the rural population is literate and 23% belong to Scheduled Castes or Tribes. The average size of farm is 2.4 ha. Some 36% of holdings are 1 ha or less, 45% are between 1 and 4 ha, and 19% are larger than 4 ha. Practically all farms are operated by their owners; owners of small farm units must rely partly on off-farm employment for their livelihood.

Cultural Practices

2.06 Present Cropping Patterns. There are three cropping seasons: kharif (June-October); rabi (November-February); and hot season (March-May). The crops grown are mainly millets, pulses, sorghum and paddy during the kharif, and wheat, mustard and gram during the rabi. No cultivation is currently practiced during the hot season as there are no supplies of irrigation water and soil moisture is too low. Most common cropping sequences are: (i) millet or sorghum-gram; (ii) fallow - wheat or mustard; and (iii) pulses- fallow. Of the total area, about 41% is planted with wheat, 19% mustard, 18% - 9 - millets and sorghum, 16% pulses (mainly pigeon pea), 15% gram, 12% paddy and 5% other minor crops. The high variability of the rainfall, both between years and within the rainy seasons, and the unsatisfactory supply of kharif irrigation water have discouraged kharif cultivation and only about 45% of the cultivable area is cropped during the kharif. The remaining lands are usually kept fallow to preserve soil moisture and to enable early seedbed preparation for the rabi crops. Most of the rabi crops are irrigated but do not receive the amount of water required for good yields.

2.07 Crop Yields. Most of the paddy grown in the area is transplanted and irrigated. Due to unreliable supply of irrigation water and lack of adequate drainage facilities in the heavy soil areas in particular, present yields are low, averaging 2.2 t/ha for HYV and 1.25 t/ha for local varieties. Millet, the staple food crop, is largely grown on the light soils under rainfed conditions. The yields are low averaging 1.70 t/ha for hybrids and 0.80 t/ha for local millets. Most of the sorghum consists of local varieties and is grown under rainfed conditions. Some hybrid varieties have been introduced but have not yet been widely adopted by the farmers. The average yield of local sorghum is estimated at 0.80 t/ha. Pigeon pea is the most important pulse in the kharif and bengal gram and mung bean are the most important pulses in the rabi season. Average yields of pulses are about 0.80 t/ha under irrigation and 0.50 t/ha under rainfed conditions. Wheat is the most popular rabi crop and is also a staple food crop. Its average yield is about 1.60 t/ha for HYV and 1.0 t/ha for local varieties. This low yield is attributed mainly to untimely planting and can be improved considerably if planting concentrates around mid-November. Mustard is extensively grown on light soils during the rabi and about 70% of its area receives some irrigation. Yields are 0.70 t/ha under irrigation and 0.55 t/ha under rainfed conditions. Some potatoes are grown mainly for home consumption but yields are low at 10 t/ha.

Groundwater Resources (Supplementary Data Volume (SDV), Annex 6)

2.08 Alluvial deposits form the important aquifer system of the command area. These accumulated in the drainage basins of the Chambal and Sind rivers and overlie rocks of the Vindhyan series. The alluvial deposits thin laterally from the general vicinity of the rivers to a feather edge at the outcrop of the Vindhyan rocks in central Morena and southern Bhind districts.

2.09 The upper part of the alluvial sequence is predominantly silt and this layer may be up to 120 m thick. The lower part of the sequence consist's of sands (which form the aquifers) with interfingered lenses of silt, clay and kanker. Clean sand materials form 50-80% of the lower layer. The total thickness of alluvial deposits has a maximum of about 200 m.

2.10 The regional hydraulic gradient of the groundwater system is north- wards or north-westwards towards the Chambal River within the command area. The Chambal and Kunwari Rivers are deeply incised and form the sinks for groundwater flow. The sink at the Chambal River marks the lateral hydraulic boundary to groundwater flow within the command. - 10 -

2.11 The depth of the water table ranges from near surface to about 30 m below surface (in parts of Bhind district). The head in the lower part of the system is sufficient to produce flowing wells in the discharge areas adjacent to the Chambal and Kunwari Rivers.

2.12 The quality of the groundwater is generally suitable for irrigation on the reasonably well drained soils. There are some areas of saline groundwater associated with shallow water table discharge areas where salts are concentrated in the upper layers by evaporation.

2.13 The groundwater is utilized for irrigation through private and public wells. Many private water points are dug-cum-bored wells, the lower bored section being developed as a cavity well on penetratiig the first sand bed. Some 810 tubewells, 60-80 m deep and yielding 30-50 m /h, have been constructed by the Madhya Pradesh Lift Irrigation Corporation (LIC) for private farmers. LIC also operates a smail number of public tubewells for irrigation with discharges of about 150 m /h and command areas of 100 ha. In general, groundwater development through public tubewells results in a more equitable distribution of the groundwater resources than development through private wells.

2.14 The present level of groundwater development in the alluvial aquifer system of the Chambal command is relatively low. Partial estimates of water balances, prepared for blocks within the command area, indicate that gross abstraction as a percentage of total recharge ranges from 2-60% and averages 25%. If contribution of return flows to groundwater recharge is considered, the abstraction rate would be reduced by about half.

III. THE PROJECT

A. General

3.01 Scope and Objectives. The four-year project would consist of two main parts: (i) continuation of works started under Phase I (para 1.08) which are aimed at improving both the canal conveyance system and the drainage system, construction of additional roads and the prevention of further encroachment of the ravines into the project area 1/; and (ii) construction of a system for conjunctive use of ground and surface water with a regulatable storage, and a distribution system lined to the 8 ha outlet. This latter

1/ In Phase I, works covered under this part have been implemented according to a priority basis and spread throughout the Chambal Project area. This will be the situation also in Phase II (the proposed project). It was impossible therefore to divide the project area by implementation phase. - 11 -

component will provide a more reliable water supply to the tail end of the command area. Improvements resulting from project works would include the following:

(a) The area irrigated will expand by about 32,000 ha (from 189,000 to 221,000 ha).

(b) 40,000 ha (out of the 221,000 ha) would be developed to improved irrigation standards (the AIBD area).

The proposed works will increase agricultural production, employment and net incomes in the project area.

3.02 The main project components will be:

(a) Intensive block development in the Ambah branch canal (AIBD) including construction of 175 augmentation tubewells for conjunctive use of ground and canal water and upgrading of minor canal and watercourses network over 40,000 ha (SDV, Annexes 6 and 7).

(b) Irrigation and drainage network improvements (SDV, Annex 4) such as:

(i) further upgrading of the main and secondary irrigation canal throughout the project area;

(ii) main and secondary drainage works.

(d) Upgrading and extension of the rural road network (SDV, Annex 8).

(e) Monitoring, Technical Services and establishment of a Training Institute.

3.03 The proposed project components are closely interrelated. Canal network improvement works are essential for improving the reliability of canal water which will provide about 2/3 of the water in the conjunctive use areas. Unless this share of the water supply is reliable, the total supply situation will remain unsatisfactory and the potential benefits from the augmentation of groundwater and from the improved distribution networks (to the 8 ha outlet) will not be realized. Similarly, it will not be possible to obtain the full benefits from the investment in the improved distribution system in areas suffering from poor drainage, unless the drainage situation is improved. The investments made in the major irrigation works coupled with a scarcity of irrigable land commanded by the canals justify further investments - 12 - to prevent the encroachment of the ravines and in the canal side plantations to protect the canal sides from erosion and breaches. Finally an adequate network of roads would be essential for the increased transport of inputs and outputs when agricultural production in the project area "takes off".

B. Detailed Features

The Ambah Intensive Block Development (AIBD)

3.04 These works would comprise (i) construction of augmentation tubewells (AT) which would pump groundwater into the canal system; (ii) creation of storage in the canal system for constant flow regulation and to enable utilization of low-cost energy during off-peak hours; and (iii) upgrading and extension of the conveyance system to the 8 ha outlet. The AT would supply water in the part of the Ambah Branch Canal (ABC) command extending from Mile 54 on the ABC to the tails of the system to an area of about 40,000 ha of Cul- tivable Command Area (CCA).

3.05 The Augmentation Tubewells. A total of 175 AT with discharges in the range of 150-350 m Ahr are plinned. The total installed pumping capacity would be about 47,000 m /hr (13 m /sec). It is assumed that power supply limitations will restrict pumping ij peak demand periods to 16 hour/day, giving a peak 15-day production of 11.23Ma at the well heads, equivalent to a continuous discharge of about 8.7 m /sec. The proposed cropping pattern would require approximately 2,300 hours of groundwater pumping during the period October through March.

3.06 The wells will discharge into various parts of the canal conveyance system including the ABC, distributaries, minors and subminors down to 6 cfs capacity. They will be distributed through the conveyance system so that the augmentation well head capacity represents approximately half the water supply at full supply level at any point in the system.

3.07 Each individual AT complex will consist of the well, pump, prime mover, rising main, automated switch gear, starter relay and motor protection relay. The wells will range in depth ;3rom 100 to 160 m and their discharges will be within a range of 150 to 350 m /hr. Pumping water levels will be in the range of 15 to 45 m below ground surface. The wells will be equipped with submersible electric motor powered turbine pumps. The main switch gear for groups of wells will be centralized at selected points on the transmission system.

3.08 The Electrical Transmission and Transformation Systems. The transmission system below the 33/11 Kv substation will be exclusive to the augmentation well system. The power will be supplied from the existing 132/33 Kv stations at Morena, Ambah, Mehgoan and Bhind. About 116 km of 33 Kv line will be constructed. Substations for 33/11 Kv transformation will be constructed at six sites. Features of such stations will be protection against voltage surges by capacitors and smoothing of outgoing voltage by transformer protection and specialized transformer units. The 11 Kv lines will extend over about 265 km. Each water point will be equipped with a transformer of suitable capacity for 11/0.4 Kv conversion. - 13 -

3.09 Conveyance from Well to Canal. This part of the conveyance system will consist of buried low pressure reinforced cast concrete (RCC) pipes. The connection from the pump rising main to the RCC pipe and the final length of delivery at surface will consist of mild steel pipes. At the delivery point on the canal, the water will pass through a baffled energy dissipation box which will also function as a V-notch chamber for checking well discharge.

3.10 Canal Storage for Constant Flow Regulation. The canal system down to 6 cfs capacity will be enlarged to provide regulatable storage between full supply level (FSL) and FSL +1 to +3 ft. It will also be modified to operate essentially as a level top system and be equipped with the necessary regulator gates and cross regulators. Outlets to minor elements of the distribution, and direct chak outlets will be controlled through gated modules (for near constant discharge under slight head variations) having lockable screw down slide gates.

3.11 Experimental Storage for Flow Regulation. The use of storage for flow regulation is relatively new in India but is expected to become increasingly important in the future. Therefore, it is necessary to study the suitability of alternative regulation methods to local conditions. This would be done under the project by: (i) construction of 7 storage tanks, each serving one AT and having storage capacity equal to about one-third of the pump discharge in 16 hrs.; and (ii) installation of an automatic (NEYRPIC) gates system in Distributary 35R, which serves about 1,000 ha.

3.12 Water Distribution System. All channels carrying 6 cfs (600 m 3/hr) or less would be lined to the 8 ha outlet, except where found unnecessary as a result of tests and observations that would indicate that lining is uneco- nomical in these reaches. Regulation and measurement structures would be constructed at flow division points. The following densities and lining areas were assumed (based on sample areas):

Service Channel Average Area Area Capacity Density to be Lined (ha) (cfs) /a (m/ha) (m /ha)

Distributaries & Minors 250-2,500 6-60 7 20.0 Minors & Subminors 50-250 1-6 13 16.5 Watercourses 10-40 1 22 25.0 Field Channels 4-10 1 85 (unlined)

/a 1 cfs = 100.8 m /hour.

3.13 Locally manufactured bricks have proven to be satisfactory lining material in the medium textured soils of the project area. The lined minor network would generally be designed with rectangular sections and constructed of 11 cm bricks set in 1:6 mortar, with 1:3 cement pointing on outside joints, and 10-12 mm thick cement plaster of the inside facing. Works would include the construction of structures (division boxes, drops, culverts and chak inlets) and measuring flumes at all direct outlets and at the head of each 48 ha delivery block. After completion of the lining, each section would be pond-tested by filling it with water and monitoring the perpolation losies during a 24-hour period. Where losses exceed 0.6 cumecs/Mm (2 cfs/Mft ) the section would be repaired. - 14 -

3.14 The average density of field channel is estimated at 85 m/ha. The channels will be designed by the Irrigation Department and construction will be undertaken by the farmers and financed, where necessary, through institutional credit (see also para 5.21).

Irrigation and Drainage Network Improvements

3.15 The project would finance the following:

(a) Canal Security Works. To protect against excessive seepage at selected points (already identified) and to limit eroiion, adjacent to canal structures, a total of about 555,000 m of lining in masonry set in cement mortar and precast concrete blocks overlying a cement mortar membrane would be installed. Additional width of embankment with berms and rip rap toe protection would be built at six locations where canal alignments abut deep ravines.

(b) Canal Capacity Works. A total of 114 km of existing watercourses which take off directly from major canals would be upgraded to minor canal standards and provided with improved headgates. About 176 km of distributary canals would be increased to 0.8 1/s/ha flow capacity in the predominantly wheat zone and 1.4 l/s/ha in the predominantly rice zone.

(c) Canal Control Works. Some 98 canal regulators, 7 escape structures and 1,375 chak outlets would be constructed to facilitate canal network operation which is more responsive to irrigation demand. Twenty-one canal bridges will be constructed to facilitate canal O&M.

(d) Buildings. Forty-seven units of residential and office accommodation would be built, largely at the more remote points through the canal network to facilitate the further deployment of the Canal Operation and Maintenance (O&M) personnel. Telephone communication would be made available to all key operating staff.

(e) Equipment. The existing O&M equipment would be supplemented with additional motor vehicles, road rollers and vibratory compactors.

(f) Aquatic Weed Control. A total of 155,000 m of earth embankments would be constructed to complete the separation of the RMC, LMC and Bhind Main Canal from a series of small tanks which are the breeding grounds of aquatic weeds. This is a cost effective solution to the problem of pervasive weed growth in the canals particularly during peak demand period when it is difficult and costly to close the canals for weed removal. - 15 -

3.16 The project would also continue the drainage program to improve the drainage of seasonally waterlogged lands by constructing 295 km of secondary and main drains and modifying the spillway of the Biseli tank in the Bhind District. The area benefiting from drainage works is estimated at 4,550 ha of which about 2,300 ha are in Morena district and about 2,250 ha are in Bhind district.

3.17 The water supply to the Bhind rice areas would be improved by raising the embankment of the Kotwal-Pillowa tanks and increasing the flow capacity of the Upper Bhind and Mau Branch Canals.

Ravine Arrestation and Canal-side Plantations

3.18 Ravine Arrestation. The geographical formation and topography in the Chambal basin facilitates gully erosion and has resulted in the formation of deep gullies--the ravines. The ravine area in Morena and Bhind districts has increased from 228,000 ha in 1943/44 to 234,000 ha in 1950/51 and 311,000 ha in 1975/76 an average increase of about 3,000 ha per annum. A considerable part of the land lost to the ravines had previously been suitable for crop production. Ravine control operations include mainly: (i) afforestation of selected areas in order to prevent further expansion of the ravines; (ii) enclosure of areas to facilitate growth of vegetative cover; and (iii) protection of existing plantations. About 11,000 ha of plantations would be established under the project in the peripheral ravine lands of the Chambal (MP) command area. Selection of the areas to be protected would be guided by economic criteria (para. 5.15).

3.19 Canal-side Plantations. The plantations along 420 km of project canals would act as a shelter-belt and reduce wind erosion and losses of canal water through evaporation and could be a source of timber and fuel for the rural population. The plants which would be raised in project nurseries would be planted on both sides of the canals, three rows at planting distances of 3 x 3 m on each side.

Roads

3.20 The roads component would comprise:

(a) completion to waterbound macadam standard of 68 km of roads started in Phase I;

(b) completion of widening to 5.5 m and strengthening of 104 km of existing blacktop roads;

(d) constructing 25 km of new waterbound macadam roads;

(e) construction of bridges;

(f) construction, within the project area, of offices and staff housing required for road construction and maintenance units; - 16 -

(g) an engineering study to establish the feasibility and cost of constructing 69 km of public roads along part of the Ambah Branch Canal; and

(h) an in-service training program for road engineers; super- visors, technicians and plant operators, aimed particularly at improving methods of works planning, output of construction equipment and quality control.

3.21 All project roads would be designed and constructed as all-weather roads 1/ in accordance with Indian Roads Congress (IRC) standards and speci- fications. Pavements would be of waterbound macadam construction with the addition of a 20 mm pre-mix bitumen carpet and seal coat on selected sections of road. All roads would be constructed on compacted earth embankments with a height of at least 0.6 m, measured to the underside of the pavement, and would be provided with adequate side drains and cross drainage works. All single lane roads would have 1.0 m wide hard murrum shoulders on both sides, compacted to a thickness of at least 0.15 m. In black cotton soil areas, the earth embankment would be overlaid with murrum blanketing at least 0.25 m thick and carried over the full width, including side slopes. Pavement depths would be calculated from the anticipated traffic densities and the California Bearing Ratio (CBR) values of the sub-base materials. The width of right-of- way would normally be 25 m or more but may be reduced in cultivated areas to a minimum of 15 m, provided that sufficient earth for the embankment can be obtained from other sources. The minimum formation width would be 7.5 m and pavement widths would be 5.5 m and 3.5 m respectively for double and single lane roads. The IRC standard width for two-lane pavements is 7.0 m. Further widening may eventually become necessary on some roads but cannot be economically justified at the present stage of development. It will not be feasible to widen the existing single-lane blacktop roads, which were built to the old standard width of 3.00 m. However, their pavements would be strengthened, where necessary, and 1.25 m wide hard shoulders will be provided on both sides of these roads.

Monitoring, Technical Services and Training

3.22 Monitoring and Evaluation. Provisions have been made for incremental staff, vehicles and equipment, data processing, consultants, seconded staff, research studies by university students and staff and training. Details are in paras 5.13 to 5.18 and SDV, Annex 9.

3.23 Monitoring of Groundwater. A network of about 18 paired piezometers equipped with water level recorders are to be constructed to monitor c anges in groundwater levels. Each pair would monitor an area of about 25 km . In addition, about 12 shallow piezometers would be constructed adjacent to the augmentation wells to monitor the water level response in the upper layer to pumping in the lower layer. Details are in SDV Annex 6, Appendix 1.

1/ With permissible interruptions to traffic due to flooding, as laid down by the IRC. - 17 -

3.24 Water Resources and Management Studies (SDV, Annex 4). The project will finance studies leading to: (a) development of additional water resources; and (b) formulation of a sophisticated canal management plan. Under (a) feasibility studies would be undertaken for the development of the Kunwari-Kunu-Seep and Asan-Pegara river basin waters, resources identified in Phase I. The studies will cover both direct irrigation of new potential service areas and augmentation of the RMC supply. Under (b) a mathematical model would be formulated to study the complex hydraulics of the canal network and to identify operational improvements. The model will utilize the detailed canal geometry and extensive historical water level and flow data collected on many segments of the system sirnce 1965. The studies would be conducted by an agency or research institution having adequate expertise. Agreements have been reached with GOMP that it would: (i) select agencies to conduct the water resources and management studies; and (ii) by December 31, 1982 submit to IDA for comments, a plan for each study, including detailed methodology and implementation schedule.

3.25 Technical Services. The project provides for short-term engagement of local experts in tasks requiring special expertise which is unavailable in the government service. This may include, inter alia, assistance with the implementation of the augmentation system proposed for the AIDB, introduction of rotational water supply system and improvement of the monitoring and evaluation system. Such provisions would minimize the administrative problems involved in the engagement of such experts.

3.26 Training in Minor SystemDe n d Water Management. The effectiveness of water utilization will depend to a large extent on adequate development of the minor distribution system. Such development will require personnel experienced in surveying, layout, construction and subsequent management of distribution systems, including minor canals, watercourses and field channels. Such personnel must have also adequate knowledge of agricultural practices especially crop water requirement. Unfortunately, this type of expertise is almost non-existent. In order to fill this deficiency, it would be essential to start an orderly training program aimed at satisfying the project requirements of such personnel as well as, eventually, those of the entire state. The program would comprise courses of duration varying from three to nine months for personnel in the ID having university degrees or diplomas in civil or agricultural engineering. Similar training programs have been initiated in several states (e.g., Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh) to support projects which began at an earlier date and Madhya Pradesh should be able to benefit from their experience. The project will assist with the establishment of a Water and Land Management Institute for training in minor system development and water management. Project assistance will include establishment of residential and training accommodation, equipment, incremental staff salaries, training allowances and consultancy services. Specific proposals including detailed curriculum for training will be prepared by GOMP. Agreements have been reached with GOMP that it would: (i) by December 31, 1982 prepare a detailed plan, agreed with IDA, for the establishment of a water and land development institute; and (ii) by September 30, 1983 establish such an institute. - 18 -

C. Criteria for Design and Operation

Design Criteria for AIBD

3.27 Wells. The wells will be drilled using either direct rotary or reverse circulation drilling rigs. All wells will fully penetrate the aquifer system to terminate at the contact between the alluvial deposits and the underlying Vindhyan series rocks. They will be drilled at 550 mm diameter from surface to terminal depth. Their total depths will be in the range of 100 to 160 m. Well casing and screen will be of mild steel and the screen will be slotted with apertures of 1.5 mm width to provide an open area of not less than 15%. The pu3p chamber casing will be of 300 mm diameter for wells with discharges of 350 m /ha. The pump chamber will extend from ground surface to the base of the upper silty layer of the aquifer system. The production string will be of 200 mm diameter and will consist of slotted pipe covering aquifer material and blank pipe covering non-productive beds. Lengths of production string will range from 30 to 80 m and the slotted sections will average 70% of the production string. The wells will be gravel packed with graded pea gravel. The production string will be fitted with centralizers to ensure an even thickness of gravel shroud.

3.28 The wells will be developed using a compressor and, in the final stage, finally developed with a diesel engine powered vertical shaft turbine pump. The final development discharge should not be lower than the design discharge of the well and preferably 50/ahigher. The wells will be test pumped for 24 hours. The first half of the period will consist of a step- drawdown test in four steps and the final discharge will be maintained for the balance of the pumping period as a constant yield-drawdown test. The pumping test data will be analyzed to provide estimates of: (i) formation loss; (ii) well loss; (iii) well transmissivity; (iv) screened section mean permea- bility; and (v) the production capacity of the well. The production capacity selected should maximize the discharge within acceptable well loss limits.

3.29 Pumping Units. The pumps will be submersible electric motor powered turbines. The starter relay will be of Auto Transformer Starter type for motors of 30 HP or greater and of Star Delta type for motors of less than 30 HP. The starter switch gear will be automated from a central switch gear at the 33/11 Kv substation. A single phase preventor will be included in the relay. A capacitor will be provided for power factor correction and current regulation. An electronic hour meter will be fitted to monitor the operation of the pump. The electrical equipment at surface will be housed in a suitable box for security. The rising main will consist of 200 mm diameter mild steel pipe.

3.30 Power Transmission and Transformation. The 33/11 kV transformation (para 3.08) will consist of six 1.6 MVA transformers and one 3.15 MVA transformer distributed in six substations. The 33/11 kV transformers will be equipped with specialized protection and capacitors to minimize effects of voltage fluctuations. An 11/0.4 kV transformer of appropriate capacity will be provided at each water point. - 19 -

3.31 The power transmission and transformation from the 33 Kv line to the water point will be exclusive to the augmentation well system. The switch gear for groups of wells will be centralized at selected points on the transmission system and will be set up for staggered start-up to prevent voltage fluctuations.

3.32 Piped Conveyance from Well Head to Canal. The wells are off-set from both banks of selected distributary canals. The main section of the conveyance from well to distributary canal will be in 300 mm internal diameter, low pressure RCC pipe, which will be buried at one meter depth. The connection from the pump rising main to the RCC pipe and the final delivery from the RCC pipe will be in mild steel pipe of 300 mm diameter. The piped conveyance will terminate at a baffled energy dissipation box at the outlet to the canal. This will be equipped to also function as a V-notch chamber for measuring rate of water delivery.

3.33 Experimental Storage. The storage capacity of the experimental reservoirs (para 3.11) will be one-third of the 16-hour discharge of the water point which it serves. The reservoir storage will be all above ground surface and will be created by a compacted earth embankment. The depth of storage will be about 2.5 m with an additional 0.5 m of free board. Provision is made for lining the floor and sides of the reservoir with polythene sheet, though experiments will be made with unlined reservoirs (particularly in shallow water table areas) to compare seepage losses between lined and unlined versions. A gated sluice to the canal which can be adjusted for constant discharge will be provided.

Operation and Maintenance (O&M) Criteria

3.34 The augmentation wells will be operated and maintained by the Madhya Pradesh Lift Irrigation Corporation (LIC) on behalf of the Irrigation Depart- ment (ID). Directives for activating the wells will be given by the ID. Telephone communication networks will operate between operation decision levels in ID and the points on the 11 Kv transmission where the operators, each operating a group of wells and the switch gear controlling such groups of wells will be located. Arrangements would be made for these operators to work on a 3 shift/24 hour day basis to maximize utilization of the water points at periods of peak demand for irrigation water.

3.35 An Operation and Ilaintenance Sub-branch of the Morena Branch of LIC will be created for the augmentation well system. The basic professional staff of the sub-branch will be an Assistant Branch Myanager (ABM) supported by Senior Technical Assistants (STA). Two of the STA will be responsible for day-to-day maintenance and supervision of the water points, each being supported by two Junior Technical Asssistants (JTA). Thus each STA will have responsibility for about 90 water points and each JTA for 45 water points. The JTA will have the continuous services of a skilled mechanic for emergency maintenance. The third STA will be in charge of a central workshop and stores for repair and servicing of pumps and ancillary equipment.

3.36 The Operation and Maintenance Sub-branch stores will hold io0 spares for pump turbines, prime movers and ancillary electric equipment. The operation and Maintenance Sub-branch will be provided with transport according to the following schedule: - 20 -

Type No. Use

Jeep I Assistant Branch Manager Light Truck 6 STA maintenance sections Light Truck 1 STA workshop section Motorcycle 6 JTA maintenance sections

3.37 The well discharges and drawdowns will be checked at six-month intervals. If low pump discharges indicate pump wear, routine maintenance will be carried out. If reduced specific capacity (yield versus drawdown) indicates deterioration of well performance, the well will be worked over for rehabilitation. The JTA will also read the totalizing hour meters at each water point at monthly intervals to monitor usage.

3.38 Budget Allocations for Operation and Maintenance. Present allocations for the canal system have been insufficient to ensure a satisfactory standard of maintenance of the canal network and although the CADA has provided some funds additional to the statewide O&M allocation the situation is unsatisfactory. It would be essential to base O&M budget allocations on the special conditions of Chambal (MP). Agreements have been reached with COMP that it would: (i) prepare by December 31, 1982 and furnish to IDA for its review, a detailed plan for a management study to establish rules, procedures and requirements for effective operation and preventive maintenance of the Chambal Project (MP) and specifically for the Ambah Intensive Block Development; (ii) carry out such a study and submit its findings to IDA for comments by June 30, 1983; and (iii) promptly thereafter inform IDA of implementation of the recommendation of the study. O&M costs of the AT, estimated at Rs 20,000 per well per annum (1981 prices) would be initially budgeted by LIC which would be fully reimbursed by GOMP.

D. Implementation Schedule

3.39 Status of Project Preparation. Canal improvement and drainage works would be similar to those which have been carried out in the project area for several years. The type designs 1/ to be used under the project are based on past experience and have been reviewed and approved by IDA. Detailed designs are generally finalized about 12 months before implementation. Augmentation of groundwater, a new project component under Phase II, would commence with well drilling by LIC using existing rigs already deployed in the project area and with procurement of electric transmission equipment, transformers, pumps and motors. AIBD works would start at Distributary 33RD of ABC which serves about 40% of AIBD area. The location of the AT and additional control structures for this distributary have already been determined (SDV, Annex 7).

1/ A "type" design of a channel or structure is such that for a range of canal capacities the design can be used with only minor modifica- tions. - 21 -

3.40 Implementation. The project would be implemented over four years, from July 1, 1982 to June 30, 1986 and an additional 12 months would be allowed for completion of disbursements. The CADA would ensure close coordination between the agencies implementing the project. Ensuring coordination between construction and energization of the augmentation wells and completion of lining to the 8 ha outlet would be especially important. An agreement has been reached with GOMP that it would energize each tubewell within one month after installation of the pump. The implementation schedule is in Annex 1, Table T-11.

IV. COST ESTIMATES AND FINANCIAL AIRANGEMENTS

Cost Estimates

4.01 Total project cost would be about Rs 556 M (US$62 14). Taxes and duties included in this estimate are negligible. The foreign exchange component is estimated at Rs 41 M (US$4.5 M) which is about 7% of the total cost. The estimates are based on June 1982 prices. Physical contingencies which were estimated separately for each item range from 6 to 20% and average 16% of the base cost. Price contingencies, which account for about 21% of the base cost are based on expected inflation rates of 8.5% in 1982/83, 8% in 1983/84, 7.5% in 1984/85, 7% in 1985/86 and 6% thereafter. Cost estimates are detailed in Annex 1, Tables T-2 to T-10 and summarized in the following table: Total Foreign Base Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Exchange Costs - Rs M…------US$ M-- (-) (x0)

A. Ambah Intensive Block Development (AIBD) Augmentation Wells 61.7 4.1 65.8 6.9 0.5 7.3 6.2 16.2 Distribution System 80.7 5.1 85.8 9.0 0.6 9.5 6.0 21.2

Sub-total AIBD 142.3 9.3 151.6 15.8 1.0 16.8 6.1 37.4

B. Irrigation and Drainage 91.6 6.0 97.6 10.2 0.7 10.9 6.2 24.1 C. Ravine Arrestation and Canal-side Plantations 25.3 1.6 27.0 2.8 0.2 3.0 6.0 6.7 D. Roads 52.4 9.0 61,4 5.8 1.0 6.8 14.6 15.2 E. Monitoring and Studies 2.4 0.4 2.7 0.3 0.0 0.3 14.0 U.7 F. Training and Technical Services 10.7 - 10.7 1.2 - 1.2 - 2.6 G. Land Acquisition 6.3 - 6.3 0.7 - 0.7 - 1.6 H. Engineering, Supervision and Administration 44.2 3.6 47.8 4.9 0.4 5.3 7.6 11.8

Total Baseline Costs 375.2 29.9 405.1 41.7 3.3 45.0 7.4 100.0 Physical Contingencies 60.0 4.6 64.6 6.7 0.5 7.2 7.1 15.9 Price Contingencies 80.3 6.2 86.6 8.9 U.7 9.6 7.2 21.4

TOTAL PkOJECT COSTS 515.6 40.7 556.3 57.3 4.5 61.8 7.3 137.3 - 22 -

Financing

4.02 The proposed IDA credit of US$31.0 M1would finance about 5020of totai project cost including the foreign exchange component (US$4.5 M) and about 46% of the local cost. All the expenditures would be met by GOMP from its development budget, which includes a GOI contribution. The credit would be made to GOI on standard IDA terms. An agreement has been reached with GOI that it would make the proceeds of the credit available to GOMP on GOI's standara terms and arrangements for development assistance to the States. An agreement has been reached with GOMP that it would provide sufficient funds and materials to execute the project, in accordance with the four-year project implementation program. The project is the natural continuation of Chambal (MP) Phase I (Cr. 562-IN). Therefore, works implemented after October 31, 1981, which have been procured and executed in accordance with IDA criteria would be eligible for finance under this Phase II project. The amount of retroactive financing will not exceed US$3.0 M.

Procurement

4.03 Civil Works financed under the project would cost approximately US$50.2 M. 1/ These works would consist of construction of water distribution system, canal repairs, drainage, rural roads and buildings. Drilling and well development works (US$2.9 M) would be carried out by the LIC which has an established, technically competent staff capable of carrying out these tasks. The remaining civil works (US$47.3 M) which would be carried out through labor intensive methods, would be relatively small and scattered over a large area. Consequently, it would be neither feasible nor economic to group them into large contracts for international competitive bidding (ICB). They would therefore be carried out by contractors selected through local competitive bidding (LCB), using the standard documents and procedures recently developed by the Central Water Commission (CWC) of GOI. The CWC bid documents and procedures have been approved by IDA. Contracts in excess of US$1.0 Mi would be subject to IDA's pre-action procurement review.

4.04 In order to facilitate service and maintain an adequate supply of spare parts, the pump sets and accessories (US$1.3 M) would be procured through LCB. The remaining equipment and vehicles valued at US$1.7 M would be pur- chased over four years in lots too small to attract foreign competition; therefore, these would be also procured through LCB. The CWC has recently developed standard bid document and procedures for equipment, materials and supplies which has been approved by IDA and would be used in the project.

Disbursements

4.05 Disbursements under the credit would be made against:

(a) Civil works - 65%; (b) Vehicles and equipment: (i) directly imported - 100% of foreign expenditures; (ii) locally manufactured - 100% of ex-factory cost; (iii) other locally procured - 70%; (c) Studies, monitoring and technical services (excl. equipment) - 100%.

1/ Net of engineeering and administration costs. - 23 -

Disbursement requests for civil works will include a certified statement by the head of the Quality Control Unit (para 5.04), that the works conform with the quality standards set up by the Unit. Disbursements for completed tubewells would be made against certificates of expenditure submitted by GOMP, itemized by major components. The disbursements request for tubewells would also include a certified statement by the Superintending Engineer in charge that (i) all works on the tubewells have been completed in accordance with the agreed planning and design criteria; (ii) the discharge of each tubewell is not less than 70% of the design discharge; and (iii) the tubewell has been electrified. Disbursement for force account works and for payments of Rs 300,000 or less under civil works contracts and Rs 150,000 or less for equipment and vehicles would be made against certificates of expenditures itemized by type of work. Documentation for these works would be retained by GOMP and made available for inspection by IDA during review missions. Full documentation would be required for all other disbursements. The disbursement schedule and proposed allocation of the credit by category are in Annex 1, Tables T-12 and T-13 respectively. It is expected that disbursements would be completed by June 1987.

Accounts and Audit

4.06 The project would be subject to normal Government control and auditing procedures which are satisfactory. A resident Audit Officer, representing the State Accountant General (AG) would audit the project accounts. Although continuous and annual audits are carried out in a timely manner, the finalization of the Statutory Audit Report which has to be presented to the Legislature is a lengthy process. It would be essential therefore to have interim certified statements of account. Such statements certified by the AG or his designee, and supported by an itemized account and a summary of expenditures would be submitted to IDA as soon as possible after the end of each fiscal year. Agreements have been reached with GOMP that it would: (a) maintain separate accounts on project expenditures; (b) ensure that these accounts would be audited annually by the AG and the resulting reports would be submitted to IDA as soon as possible but not later than nine months after the end of each fiscal year; and (c) make complete accounts and financial statements avaiiable for inspection during IDA review mission.

V. ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT

The Command Area Development Authority

5.01 The Chambal Command Area Development Authority (CADA), headed by the Commissioner, Chambal Division (administering both Bhind and Morena Dis- tricts), manages and coordinates the activities of the various GOMP Departments operating in the Chambal Project area. It is responsible, for overall planning and accomplishment, to GOMP at Secretary level through the Agricultural Pro- duction Commissioner who coordinates Command Area Development (CAD) activites among the respective State heads of the concerned Departments. Funding for works in the project area are usually included in specific budgets in the Departments of Revenue, Irrigation, Public Works, Agriculture, Cooperation and Forestry, and the MP Lift Irrigation Corporation (LIC). The local heads of - 24 - these Departments form the Chambal CADA Management Board, chaired by the Commissioner, which also includes representatives of local farmers and the commercial and public sector banks.

5.02 Although some weakness persists in the CAD organization, particularly in State-level coordination, which has resulted in slowness of decision-in- making and flow of allocated funds, the Chambal CADA has developed into one of the stronger entities of this type in India. Under the project, the office of the Chambal CADA Commissioner would be strengthened by (a) appointment of a Land Acquisition officer for each of Bhind and Morena Districts to accele- rate awards for appropriation of land for canal and road easements, and (b) a fully organized and staffed planning and monitoring unit (para 5.13), which would be responsible for planning further phases of Chambal development.

The Irrigation Department (ID)

5.03 The ID is responsible for the planning, survey, design, construction, maintenance and operation of surface water irrigation and drainage works down to the chak outlets. It also plans and constructs departmental buildings and canal service roads. The ID in Chambal Project is organized in two circles, one in Bhind and the other in Morena, each headed by a Sup- erintending Engineer (SE); the SE for Morena coordinates the activities of the two circles. The circles which are fully staffed are organized in 12 field divisions and one Design Cell. The ID would be strengthened by (a) a Water Management Unit responsible for water allocation procedures; (b) a Special Survey and Design Unit for the AIBD area; and (c) Quality Control Unit (see below).

5.04 Quality Control. The main task of the Quality Control Unit (QCU) will be to ensure an adequate quality of project works. This would be achieved through systematic checks during construction and upon completion. Where the volume of work is too large to enable a complete check of all the units constructed (e.g. lining of watercourses) sampling methods would be used. One of the first tasks of QCU will be to develop quality standards for project works. These standards will conform with those prescribed by the Indian Standards Institute, Agreements have been reached with GOMP that: (i) a Quality Control Unit be established and adequately staffed by November 30, 1982; and (ii) quality standards for project works and a proposal for the methodology of implementing quality control be furnished to IDA for comments by March 31, 1983.

5.05 Dam Safety. The headworks serving the project (para 1.05) have been in operation for over 20 years without major problems. They are periodically inspected by the ID in a satisfactory manner. lt would be essential to ensure the continuation of their inspection by qualified experts. The GOMP have recently constituted a Dam Review Panel to ensure the safety of dams constructed under Madhya Pradesh Major Irrigation Project. An agreement has been reached with GOMP that it would cause the Dam Review Panel to undertake periodic inspections of the project storage dams in order to determine any deficiencies which may endanger their safety.

The MP Lift Irrigation Corporation (LIC)

5.06 The LIC, a public sector organization supervised by the ID, is responsible for the survey, planning design, construction, maintenance and - 25 -

operation of all public sector tubewells. The Chambal regional office of LIC is headed by the Regional Manager at Gwalior and has project area branches in Morena and Bhind townships. Each of these branches is divided into three sub-branchesunder Assistant Branch Managers (ABM). The activitiesof the sub-branchesare in part area-orientedand in part work-type oriented. To undertake the 175-unit AT developmentin the project as well as the operation and maintenanceof these units, the LIC Morena branch would be reorganized and strengthenedas outlined below.

5.07 Strengtheningof the LIC Morena Branch. The ABM (construction) will be based at Ambah and be responsiblefor the operationof initially three and finally five drilling rigs, ancillary well developmentand testing equipment. Well drilling and construction,and well development and testing will be organizedas separate activities each under the supervision of a Senior TechnicalAssistant (STA) assisted by two Junior Technical Assistants (JTA). Thus, two JTA will have responsibilityfor 3-5 drilling rigs and two JTA will run 2-3 sets of development and testing equipment. The ABM (operationand maintenance)will be also based at Ambah where the central workshop and stores for implementationand subsequent operationof the AT will be established. The operation workshop and stores will be under the direct responsibility of one STA assisted by storekeepers, foremen, mechanics and skilled helpers. For routine maintenance purposes the AIBD area will be divided into three sub-areas: (i) the Ambah West Area; (ii) the Ambah East Area; and (iii) the Bhind Area. Each sub-area will be under the supervision of a STA, the first two being located in Ambah and the third in Bhind. Each STA will be supported by one or two JTA, each with responsibility for supervision of about 45 augmentation wells. The ABM (O&M) will directly administer the Central Pump Operators, who will be stationed at the locations of the centralized switch gears.

The Public Works Department (PWD)

5.08 The planning design, supervision of construction, and maintenance of the project roads and buildings (other than ID buildings) would continue to be the responsibility of the PWD. All project road works would be executed by the existing PWD Ayacut 1/ Road Circle, headed by a Superintending Engineer (SE), and consisting of four existing Divisions,each of which is under the charge of an Executive Engineer (EE). This organization has been built up over the past few years specifically for road development in the Chambal command area and is now well established but will require some strengthening. The following new posts will be created: one EE, two Assistant Engineers, two Junior Engineers, six Laboratory Assistants and supporting drawing office staff, to be attached to the SE for quality control, works planning and monitoring and for training. Additionally, one EE (mechanical) with supporting staff would be required for the maintenance of construction equipment.

Agricultural Supporting Services

5.09 Agricultural Research. The Jawaharlal Nehru Agriculture University at Jabalpur, through its agricultural campus in Gwalior, is undertaking agricultural research for the project area. Its main functions are: (i) teaching

1/ Ayacut = Command Area. - 26 - agriculturalstudents in B.S. and M.S. degree programs; (ii) trials mainly in new varieties, fertilizer applications,plant protection and irrigation;and (iii) training of extensionworkers. It has 11 disciplinesincluding water management. The University operates about 85 ha of farmland and is staffed with some 60 well-qualifiedscientists. Some small scale adaptive trials are also carried out by the Department of Agriculture through seed multiplication farms. The University experts assist these trials. Furthermore,the Interna- tional Crop Research Institutefor the Semi-AridTropics (ICRISAT)which is centered in Hybrabad maintains a substation in the Gwalior campus. Their main emphases are on crop improvementand farming system studies. The research facilities and associated buildings at Gwalior have been improved under the Chambal Command Area DevelopmentProject, Phase I (Cr. 562-IN) and the on-going MP AgriculturalExtension and Research Project (Cr. 712-IN).

5.10 AgriculturalExtension. The GOMP first introduced the training and visit (T&V) system in the project area in 1974. This was modeled on the systems used in the IDA-assistedChambal (Rajasthan)CAD project (Ln. 1011-IN). The Chambal (MP) Command Area DevelopmentProject (Phase I) and the on-going MP AgriculturalExtension and Research Project have helped to strengthen the extension capabilitiesby providing additional staff, housing, offices, transportationand training facilitiesfor the project area. There are about 450 village level workers (VLW), 85 AgriculturalExtension Officers (AEO) and seven Sub-DivisionalAgricultural Officers (SDAO) in the project area. Each SDAO covers two to three developmentblocks, an AEO supervises five to six VLWs and a VLW advises about 600 farm families. Two Deputy Directors of Agriculture,one in Morena and one in Bhind district, each assisted by four Subject Matter Specialists,oversee extension activities. There is a close linkage between the extension service and research provided by the University. The on-going extension program is progressingwell and is adequate for project support.

5.11 AgriculturalInputs. The main supply sources of certifiedseeds for the project area are: (i) the six government agriculturalfarms; (ii) the National Seed Corporation;and (iii) the Terai Seed Growers. However, only about 10% and 50% of the demand for paddy and wheat needs respectivelyis supplied by these agencies. Most farmers have to meet their improved seed requirementsfrom their previous harvests or purchase seed from other farmers. Certified seed is distributedthrough the State Marketing Corporation(MARKED). A State Seed and Farm DevelopmentCorporation has recently been set up to increase seed production. GOMP intends to increase production so that farmers could get new or replacementseeds at least every four to five years. Fertil- izers and plant protection chemicals are distributedthrough the cooperative and private channels. There are nine State CooperativeMarketing Federations and 80 fertilizer and agro-chemicaldistribution points in the project area, each serving an average of about 2,900 ha; farmers in general have adequate access to these points.

5.12 Marketing, Processingand Storage. There are 15 regulatedmar- kets administeredby local committees in the project area. They provide auction space, storagefacilities, guest houses and stalls for traders. - 27 -

Most farms are within 20 km of a market and agricultural products are usually transported to the markets by bullock cart. The marketing system operates satisfactorily and has adequate facilities. The processing of wheat, paddy and oilseeds is mostly carried out by private sector enter- prises in and around the project area. There are 27 rice mills with a total processing capacity of about 35,000 tons, 170 oilseed mills with a capacity of about 27,400 tons and over 1,000 units of wheat grinders (about 10 HP) with a processing capacity of about 2,000 tons per day. There are plans for an additional expansion of the processing capacity. The present storage capacity, sufficient for storing about 121,000 tons of agricultural produce, is adequate to handle present needs. This existing capacity is provided mainly by the Food Corporation of India, Central Warehousing Cor- poration and State Warehousing Corporation. In addition, some cooperatives also have go-downs. Additional storage would be provided by on-going IDA- assisted Second Foodgrain Storage Project (Cr. 747--IN)which is designed to remove storage constraint in India. The European Economic Community is also being involved in constructing storage facilities in MP, including the project area.

Monitoring and Evaluation (SDV, Annex 9)

5.13 To ensure adequate level of management, a realistic assessment of project progress and constraints and timely undertaking of corrective management actions, CADA management would require the support of a strong monitoring and evaluation (M/E) system. Data generated through M/E activities would also facilitate preparation of future development phases. To facilitate the use of M/E data for planning purposes including the planning of further phases of Chambal development, responsibilities for the functions of monitoring, evaluation and planning would be incorporated in one unit - the Planning and Monitoring Unit (PMU), as recommended by the Administrative Staff College of India (para 1.16).

5.14 Methodology. The progress with implementation of project investments (e.g. augmentation wells, watercourse lining, canal security works, roads, etc.) would be monitored mainly through the internal reporting system of the CADA. Quality and cost controls are incorporated in the procedures of the various implementing departments. Monitoring and evaluation of project results at farm-level would be mainly through a better utilization of data collected in on-going crop-cutting surveys. These surveys which are conducted annually, primarily for estimating crop production and yields, would be improved, to provide the additional data required.

5.15 The PMU would be responsible for the functions of planning, monitoring, evaluation and reporting and for preparation of economic criteria for ravine control works (para 3.18). The existing Monitoring and Evaluation Cell would be amalgamated in PMU and provide the nucleus of its staff. The PMU head would be a senior officer having an adequate background in agricultural economics and statistics and the capability to utilize the results of the various studies and surveys for recommending actions by CADA management. To facilitate utilization of monitoring (including reporting) and evaluation data for management purposes, the PMJ would report to the CADA Commissioner through the Project Administrator. - 28 -

5.16 Use of Consultants, Seconded Staff and Universities. The PXU would have the capacity for design of and implementation of small surveys and for basic data processing, primarily calculation of means and standard errors, comparisons and trend analyses. Seconded staff and local consultants would be used for more specialized tasks such as improvements of the design of the crop cutting survey, computerized data analysis and improvement of the reporting system. For sophisticated multi-variate data analyses, participation of universities and research institutions would be sought. Provisions have been made under the project for the finance of research program by senior post- graduate students and university staff on pre-defined subjects which could benefit the project or the preparation of other projects. The project would make available to researchers selected data collected by the project and assist them with transportation, data processing and printing facilities. Provisions have been made also for PMU staff training.

5.17 Agreements have been reached with GOMP that it would: (i) sanction the posts required for strengthening the planning and monitoring system and appoint a senior officer-in-charge of the PMU by November 30, 1982; and (ii) in consultation with IDA prepare a detailed plan of monitoring and evaluation activities by December 31, 1982.

5.18 Reporting. GOMP would continue to submit to IDA quarterly and annual progress reports, within three months after the end of each reporting period. An agreement has been reached with GOMP that it could submit to IDA a project completion report not later than six months after its Closing Date.

Water Management in the AIBD Area

5.19 An environment conducive to optimization ot irrigation benefits would have the following main characteristics: (i) lined water distribution network with adequate control and measurement structures; (ii) efficient organization of water distribution above chak outlet; (iii) efficient organization of water distribution at chak level; (iv) ability to grow high return crops; (v) water charge system rewarding efficient water use; (vi) knowledge of irrigation technologies; and (vii) adequate supporting services (extension and research, inputs, marketing and credit). Where all these conditions exist, an outstanding and self-sustained agricultural growth rate can be expected. The AIBD area with its augmentation wells providing local control of considerable part of its water supply, and the improved water distribution system would be nearer than many other areas to satisfying most of the above conditions and be therefore suitable for introduction of improved water management practices.

5.20 Water Allocation. To improve the equity of water allocation and ensure its efficient use, each ha of CCA in the AIBD area would be allocated an equal amount of water in the rabi season. Water supply to the chaks (8 ha) would be organized on a rotational basis, with each chak receiving its water in accordance to a predetermined water allocation schedule.

5.21 Water Allocation at Chak Level. The primary objective with respect to water allocation would be to achieve a reliable and equitable water supply at the chak (8 ha) outlet. Experience has shown that if this is achieved, farmers themselves will take care of construction of channels leading to each - 29 -

field using their own labor or financing it through credit. An optimal way to allocate the water within the chak under Chambal conditions needs to be developed on the basis of local experience; this can be done only after a reliable water supply at the chak outlet is available. A promising starting point would be a rotational system similar to those which have operated successfully in northern India, possibly combinied with the promotion of water-user associations or a similar type of organization. An agreement has been reached with GOMP that it would organize a rotational water allocation system in each block in AIBD as soon as feasible after construction of the augmentation wells and block development works had been completed.

VI. PRODUCTION, FARM INCOMES AND COST RECOVERY

Water Supply and Demand (SDV, Annex 5)

6.01 Water supply in the project area is obtained from rainfall, the flows of the Chambal River regulated in Gandhisagar storage reservoir and transmitted via the Chambal Right Main Canal (RMC) at Parvati (para 1.05), the Pagara-Asan River system and from some mijor low-lift pumping from the drainage channels. Additionally, about 87 Mm would be supplied annually by the 175 project augmentation tubewells. The hydrological record (1961-79) show that the 3Chambal River is a dependable water supply source and that over 2,100 Mm have been delivered annually to the MP Chambal Scheme at Parvati during three out of four years of the RMC operation. Although this is a dependable supply on an annual basis and has met most of the peak demand, experience during Phase I showed that daily and weekly flows were rather erratic. The GOI has recently reported that a satisfactory modus operandi has been agreed between GOR and GOMP for stabilizing the RMC monthly flows at Parvati. In particular, the agreed water allocation implementation procedures would require GOR's and GOMP's respective project authorities to hold early discussions and determine the specific dates and levels of targeted water releases prior to the commencement of the Kharif (commencing June 1) and Rabi (commencing October 1) each year, depending on the storage water available in the main Ghandisagar reservoir at some determinable point of time prior to the June 1 and October 1 dates.

6.02 Crop water requirements were derived from estimates of crop con- sumptive use, effective rainfall, soil moisture capacity and land preparation needs. Canal system efficiencies were computed using operational experience during Phase I. The surface and groundwater supplies described above are adequate to meet the irrigation requirements of the projected cropping pattern in 3 of 4 years. Such shortages as would occur in exceptionally dry years have no significant impact on the viability of the project. The monthly water supply and demand is given in SDV Annex 5.

6.03 The quality of ground- and surface-water is good and suitable for sustained irrigation. - 30 -

Agricultural Development

6.04 Cropping Pattern and Yields. Present and projected cropping patterns and yields are based on district statistics, results of the benchmark survey of the project area (para 1.13), results from experimental stations and progressive farmers' fields and discussions with local agricultural staff and farmers. It is anticipated that future cropping patterns would be similar to the present ones. Paddy, millets and pulses would be the major kharif crops. The availability of reliable water supply in the AIBD area and the increased supply of water in the areas of the Bhind Main Canal and Mau Branch Canals, where heavy soils are prevailing, would enable to increase the areas under kharif paddy by about 10,000 ha. In the rabi, wheat would remain a major cereal crop, followed by mustard and gram.

6.05 With the increased supply of irrigation water and improved water management, better cultural practices and intensified extension services, the average yields of all crops grown in the area are expected to increase. How- ever, no increase in yields over the without project situation was assumed in the canal improvement areas except the areas which are presently rainfed and would be brought under irrigation as a result of project works. Estimates of cropping patterns and yields are presented in Annex 1, Tables T-14 and T-15.

6.06 Agricultural Production. Based on projected cropping patterns and yields, the annual incremental production at full development (early 1990s) is expected to be as follows.

Incremental Agricultural Production

Canal AIBD Improvement Total …----…'000------ton…------

Foodgrains /a 46.2 47.6 93.8 Oilseeds 0.4 1.7 2.1 Soybeans 1.5 0.7 2.2 Vegetables 8.0 7.0 15.0

/a Includes paddy, wheat, sorghum, millet, maize and pulses.

6.07 Marketing and Prices. In the State and the project area there is an adequate system for marketing, storage and processing of agricultural produce (para 5.12). This system should be able to absorb the expected increases in production, which would accrue over a ten-year development period, without difficulties. Producer prices are determined by supply and demand. Procure- ment (minimum) prices for the main crops are determined by the government and have been effective only in surplus markets around harvest time. In recent years, the wholesale prices for cereals have not been at great variance with international prices. - 31 -

Farm Incomes

6.08 The project effect on farm incomes was estimated through an analysis of typical farm budgets. Prevailing financial prices of inputs and outputs were used. The results are summarized below (details are in Annex 1, Table T-18):

Net Farm Incomes /a

Future Future Relative Without with Increase Due Present Project Project to Project

P p W wW w~~~~~~___W-iWX x 1000

------Rs ------AIBD (i) Presently Irrigated Areas 3340 5120 7800 52 (ii) Presently Rainfed Areas 1600 2850 7800 174

CANAL IMPROVEMENT (i) Presently Irrigated Areas 3150 5540 6000 8 (ii) Presently Rainfed Areas 1820 2770 6000 117

7a Incomes for average farm size of 2.4 ha after deduction of water and land related charges.

The greatest increase in net farm income would take place in the AIBD areas where the AT, the storage facilities and the lining of watercourses would enable delivery of irrigation water at a high level of reliability and flexibility, resulting in a high net return per unit of water. In addition to these direct effects, the project would generate indirect benefits through a series of multiplier employment and income effects that would not be con- fined only to the project area. These, however, are difficult to estimate and were not included in this analysis.

Impact on Rural Poverty

6.09 The project would result in a more equitable income distribution especially in the AIBD where the improved water distribution system will enable to provide a reliable water supply to all the commanded fields including those located at the tailends. Moreover, a great part of the increase in irrigated land will take place in the tailends of the distribution system where fields are mostly operated by small farmers. Estimates of the project impact on rural poverty were derived using the distribution of farm sizes and estimates of net farm income per ha, and are summarized in the following table: - 32 -

% of Farm Families Below Poverty Line /a Present Future With Project

AIBD 57 16 Project Area excl. AIDB 53 23

/a Estimated at Rs 910 per capita.

6.10 Income levels of landless laborers in the project area which are generally lower than incomes of small farmers will increase by the project mainly as a result of the increased demand for farm labor and the higher wages paid in irrigated farming. These wages are generally about 25% higher than those paid for rainfed farming operations.

Cost Recovery

6.11 Water and Water-Related Charges. Current charges for canal water vary from Rs 25/ha for kharif foodgrain (other than paddy) to Rs 100/ha for sugarcane and perennial tree crops and are Rs 60/ha for paddy (Table T-16). For the present cropping pattern in the project area the annual water charge averages about Rs 31/ha of net CCA. The3 charge for irrigation water from public tubewells is about Rs 0.1 per 1 m . In addition to the water charges, a cess of Rs 12/ha is levied on the total CCA and a tax is levied on land under commercial crops at Rs 10/ha for sugarcane and tobacco and Rs 5/ha for cotton and groundnut. The Irrigation Act 1/ provides for collection of a betterment levy from farmers benefitting from irrigation, amounting to 3% per annum of development cost per ha in the first five years and 4.5% in the next ten years. However, there have been legal difficulties in its implementation and GOMP is not collecting the levy. GOMP has finalized proposals for significant increases in water charges.

6.12 Other Agricultural Taxes. 2/ Since incomes in the agricultural sector are much lower than in the manufacturing and service sectors, the annual rate of agricultural taxation (mainly land revenue) is relatively modest amounting to. about Rs 15-20 per ha. More important, from a revenue point of view, is the agricultural sales tax which is levied on agricultural produce at the following rates:

Crop Rate

Foodgrains 3% Pulses 5% Oilseeds 4.5% Fruit 6% Vegetables 6%

1/ Madhya Pradesh Irrigation Act, 1931 (amended in 1956); the Supplementary Rules were last revised in 1974 and relate to traditional design objectives.

2/ For a review of GOMP's finances see: "Madhya Pradesh State Planning and Finances", by Christine Wallich, October 1979, India Programs Division, World Bank. - 33 -

6.13 Present Level of Cost Recovery. The direct: charges (water rate, cess and land revenue) amount to just over 11% of the calculated average rent under the present level of irrigation services in the project area by the average farm. As in most other irrigation projects in India, irrigation benefits in the1,roject area are negatively correlated with the distance from the head reach.- The incremental net income and rent from irrigation accrued to tail enders' who usually belong to the poorest segments of the farming population is much lower than the average and the present charges already impose a heavy burden on them. Largely as a result of the poor irrigation service, the recovery rate of water charges in the State is low and during the last 5 years ranged from 23% to 59% with about 25% of the arrears collected each year.

6.14 The Potential for Increased Recovery. The greatest potential for increased recovery would be in the AIBD. It is anticipated that at full development stage, the average net income per irrigated ha of CCA there will be about 180% higher than present level and the average rent will increase by about 50%. Additionally, the improved design standards will result in a more reliable and equitable water supply and therefore reduce the differences in net returns between "head" and "tail" fields. Consequently there will be a considerable potential for increasing irrigation charges. However, in order to ensure the continuous cooperation of farmers, any increase in the charges (in real terms) should be gradual and take place after farmers have realized a significant increase in irrigation benefits. Moreover, it may be necessary to introduce changes in the water charge system in order to make such increases feasible.

6.15 At present the water rates are uniform throughout the State irres- pective of irrigation service provided, therefore their current level must be within the repayment capability of those farmers realizing the lowest irrigation benefits (mostly tail enders in traditionally designed projects). In order to realize the increased potential for revenue from higher water rates in the more modern irrigation projects the principle of "Statewide uniform rates" will have to be amended. This could be done by introducing a charge system consisting of two or more tiers with higher water rates in projects like MP Medium, MP Major, the AIBD in Chambal (MP) and any future irrigation projects designed to similar standards. There are precedents to such a tier system in India. A "two tier" charge system for irrigation already

1/ This is illustrated below by data on the proportion of the area planted to wheat by location with respect to the canal system (details are in SVD, Annex 7):

Area Planted to Wheat Head Tail …__ _ _ _( %) …------Ambah Branch Canal (ABC) a! 36 20 Dist. 21L, Mau Branch Canal b/ 26 4 Dist. 33R (1978/79) 31 16

a/ Average for 1975-76 to 1977/78. b/ Average for 1975/76 to 1977/78. - 34 - exists in many Indian States where the water rates for irrigation from public tubewells are considerably higher than those for gravity canal irrigation projects; the higher rates recognize the larger investment and operational costs of supply water from public tubewells.

6.16 The method of water allocation and charge would have a considerable effect on the economic efficiency oL water use at farm level, and should be decided upon after careful and systematic studies of alternative methods. Under MP Medium Irrigation Project (Cr. 1108-IN) and MP Major Irrigation Project, agreements have been reached with GOMP on state-wide studies of water charges and on a review of the water and water related charges in the State by December 31, 1983. The studies and the review would also cover issues specific to the Chambal Project especially the AIBD area.

6.17 Estimated Cost and Rent Recovery. It has been assumed that after the above review of water charges, and follow-up studies, GOMP will introduce a two-tier (or equivalent) system and gradually increase the water rates in AIBD in real terms. Assumptions on timing and rates are in Annex 2. Based on these assumptions, the cost and rent recovery indices have been estimated at 39% and 33% respectively for AIBD and 21% and 14% respectively for the canal improvement areas (Annex 1, Tables T-20 and T-21).

VII. BENEFITS AND JUSTIFICATION

General

7.01 Under the proposed project, 40,000 ha would be intensively developed (including 13,000 ha presently under rainfed conditions) in the AIBD area and the productivity of land and water would increase considerably as a result of: (i) availability of additional irrigation water from augmentation wells; and (ii) lining of minor canals and watercourses network to the 8 ha outlet which would reduce seepage losses and enable to provide irrigation at greater reliability and equity. Various parts of the command area would benefit from: (i) the canal security works which would prevent canal breakages which have occurred frequently in the past; (ii) canal capacity works which would facilitate conveyance of the water to the various parts of the command area; (iii) drainage works; and (iv) ravine arrestation and canal-side plantation which would prevent expansion of the ravines into the project area and reduce the need for canal maintenance.

7.02 The overall impact in terms of agricultural production, employment generated and farm families benefitting at full development is summarized below:

Benefiting farm families (no.) 26,000 Increase in irrigated area (ha): Intensive Development Area 13,000 Remaining Area 19,000 Total 32,000 Increased foodgrain production ('000 tons) 94 Value added to local economy (Rs M/year) 119 Increased employment (M Men Days) 3.5 - 35 -

Economic Evaluation

7.03 Basic Assumptions. The basic assumptions made for economic analysis are detailed in Annex 2. The economic cost of civil works, equipment, administration and incremental O&M costs were included and sunk costs were accounted for in the analysis. The economic prices of outputs and inputs have been derived from the IBRD projected 1990 world market prices expressed in 1980/81 local currency values with appropriate adjustments for freight, handling and processing. Bank projections indicate that India could become a net exporter of rice in the near future. Consequently, the estimate of the economic price of paddy is based on the assumption that the incremental production would be indirectly exported outside India. Domestic cost components were adjusted by the appropriate conversion factor to bring them to a comparable world market price basis.

7.04 Economic Rate of Return (ERR). For economic analysis purposes the project was divided into two parts (models): (i) the AIBD area; and (ii) the remaining command area (canal improvement areas). For each model the cropping pattern, yields and inputs requirements were calculated without and with (at full development stage) the project. Discounting of costs and benefit streams over 30 years result in an ERR of 34% for the AIBD area, 35% for the area benefiting from canal improvement and drainage works and 35% for the project as a whole (weighted average). The relatively high ERR is largely a result of the significant share of sunk cost components which will not generate benefits at their full potential without project works.

7.05 Economics of Lining. Lining of the AIBD channels carrying 6 cfs or less to the 8 ha outlet is an essential component of this project. The ERR of lining was estimated at 33%. The benefits considered were limited to those resulting from preventing production losses due to the irrecoverable seepage losses, and saving the cost of pumping the recoverable part through the AT system. However, there will be substantial other benefits from lining which cannot be adequately quantified. These include mainly: (i) the greater flexibility of operating a lined system; and (ii) the greater reliability and equity of water supply. Details are in Annex 2.

7.06 Sensitivity Analysis. The sensitivity of the ERR to changes in the main assumptions was tested with the following results:

Change Required to Reduce ERR to 12% a/

AIBD Canal Improvement

1. Output Prices -49 -50 2. Net Incremental Benefits -61 -65 3. Construction Costs 222 242 4. Construction Conversion Factor b/ 325 363 a/ The estimated opportunity cost of capital in India. b/ Conversion factor used for converting construction costs from financial to economic cost (Annex 2, para 3). - 36 -

Project Risk

7.07 The results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that only large (and unlikely in the magnitude required) deviations from the basic assumptions would make this project economically unviable. A possible risk is that the reliability of water supply at the AIBD area will be lower than expected if the organization of water distribution above or below the 8 ha outlet encounters unexpected difficulties. The strengthening of CADA and its monitoring system, and its strong commitment to establishment of a reliable and equitable water distribution system reduce such a risk. Overall, the project risks are not greater than those associated with irrigation projects of a similar size in India.

Environmental Effects

7.08 Project works, especially the improved drainage, the ravine control works and the canalside plantations should have positive environmental effects. However, the expansion of irrigation into previously rainfed areas is often accompanied by an increase in the incidence of water related diseases. An agreement has been reached with GOMP that it would take all measures considered necessary to minimize the hazards of malaria and other water related diseases in Chambal Command Area.

VIII. RECOMMENDATIONS

8.01 An agreement has been reached with GOI that it would make the proceeds of the credit available to GOMP on GOI's standard terms and arrangements for development assistance to the States (para 4.02).

8.02 Agreements have been reached with GOMP that it would:

(a) (i) select agencies to conduct the water resources and management studies; and (ii) by December 31, 1982 submit to IDA for comments a plan for each study including detailed methodology and implementation schedule (para 3.24);

(b) by December 31, 1982 prepare a detailed plan, agreed with IDA, for the establishment of a water and land management institute; and (ii) by September 30, 1983 establish such an institute (para 3.26);

(c) (i) prepare by December 31, 1982 and furnish to IDA for its review, a detailed plan for a management study to establish rules, procedures and requirements for effective operation and preventive maintenance of the Chambal Project; (ii) carry out such a study by June 30, 1983; and (iii) promptly thereafter inform IDA of implementation on the recommendations of the study (para 3.38);

(d) energize each tubewell within one month after installation of the pump (para 3.40); - 37 -

(e) provide sufficient funds and materials to execute the project in accordance with the four-year project implementation period (para 4.02);

(f) (i) maintain separate accounts on project expenditures; (ii) ensure that these accounts would be audited annually by the AG and the resulting reports be submitted to IDA as soon as possible but not later than nine months after the end of each fiscal year; and (iii) make complete accounts and financial statements available for inspection during IDA review mission (para. 4.06);

(g) cause the Dam Review Panel to undertake periodic inspections of the project storage dams in order to determine any deficiencies which may endanger their safety (para 5.05);

(h) (i) sanction the posts required for strengthening the planning and monitoring system and appoint a senior officer-in-charge of the PMU by November 30, 1982; and (ii) in consultation with IDA prepare a detailed plan of monitoring and evaluation activities by December 31, 1982 (para 5.17);

(i) submit to IDA a project completion report not later than six months after its Closing Date (para 5.18);

(j) organize a rotational water allocation system in each block in the AIBD area as soon as feasible after construction of the augmentation wells and block development works had been completed (para 5.21);

(k) that the review of water and related charges to be completed for M.P. Medium Irrigation Project (Cr. 1108-IN) and M.P. Major Irrigation Project by December 31, 1983 would also cover issues specific to the project and especially the AIBD area (para 6.16).

(1) take all measures considered necessary to minimize the hazards of malaria-and other water related diseases in Chambal Command Area (para 7.08).

8.03 With the above agreements, the proposed project would be suitable for a credit of US$31.0 M on standard IDA terms. The borrower would be the Government of India. INDIA

CHAMBAL (MADHYA PRADESH) IRRIGATION II PROJECT

Summary Climatic Data

3/ l~~~~~~/ 1/ 2/ Average-/ Rainfall-/ Air Temperature- Mean- Monthly Pan Mean Wettest Driest Month Mean Extreme Relative Evaporation Monthly Month on Month on Maximum Minimum Highest Lowest Humidity Rate Total Record Record 8.30 17.30 ------°C------hours------m January 24.5 7.8 33.9 0.6 64 34 90 14 59 0 February 28.5 9.9 38.3 2.3 51 25 129 5 41 0 March 34.2 16.0 42.8 9.9 34 18 217 6 18 0 April 38.8 21.3 45.6 14.4 24 13 326 1 4 0 May 42.4 26.8 47.8 18.9 28 16 401 5 45 0 1 June 40.3 28.6 47.8 21.1 47 35 396 53 228 3 X July 33.8 25.9 47.2 20.4 74 65 248 243 456 55 August 31.3 24.7 41.1 18.9 81 69 184 305 554 122 September 32.5 23.5 40.6 20.0 73 58 151 150 304 25 October 32.9 18.4 41.1 13.4 53 34 155 27 128 0 November 29.4 11.0 37.2 7.8 51 29 111 3 16 0 December 26.1 8.3 33.9 3.9 61 35 88 6 77 0

Annual Mean Total or Extreme 32.9 18.5 47.8 0.6 53 36 2,496 818

1/ From data collected at stations in the Command Area. 2/ At Kota. X 3t At Agra. -39-

ANNEXI Table T-2

CHAMBALMADIHYA PRADESH IRRIGATIONT II PR'OJEC.T ProjectComponernt biY Timi7e (Rupees Mil.l'ion)

Tctsl Base Costs ------_------UIS$ 9218/3531/84 34/85 35/86 RupeesMillion)

APAMBAH INTENSIVE BLOCK,DEVELOPMENT (AhIlS)

AUGMENTATIONWELLS q.9 16.q 1927 192, 65-i

DISTRIBUTIONSYSTEM 7 17,2i7 300 30.00.9 f,i,S

Sut-TotalAMIBAH INTENSIVE PLOCKDEVELOPMENT (AISD) 17.6 33s6 49. 569i8s 15. sb 6.8 B. IRRIGATIONAND BRATINAGE 29i3 25'4 21t5 21,5 97 6 10.9 C.RAVINE ARRESTATION AND CANALITDEPLANTATIONS 5,1 I., ?.4 Ls .O?.i 3i 0 D. ROADS 16.0 6. 14!7 14tt t i. E. MONITORINGANDiSTUDIES 6 C, ,r Ft TRAININGAND TECHNICAL SERICES 0 G, LANDAQl!ISITION i _ t 1.8 i s- -7 fL ' N. ENGINEERINGSUPERVISION ANIADlINISTRATIZN l i 1

T.ital BASELINECOSTS 9` 1 I0 I liE7 11-9 405i /tA5,3 Physical Continz-iencies t 2;12. i95 it.213 64.6 -i Price Contirisencies 3.9 5,;-! 2.o 3is-6 36-.

TotsI PROJECTCOSTS b '. 32,3 158,. 1-S9.e 5t35iS

Fcreirin E.-chin6se 7 .7 11.3 12, t 40,7 .5

June 87 1982 1'5'3,6 ANNEX 1 -40- Table T-3

'HAME.AL.MADHY-i -- FRAD{ESH,CTTCTI)~ )IF.RISA,TIONP I F II PFCtJECT- Tabl.e 101. COS8!STESTIMATES FOR _TIRRITIONA.NDI DRAINAGENETWORK TNNON- INTENSTIVE ARE. .! .tailed Cosr|T.... 1

L2ceCo-tr

'omn 37:94 °4'QI} nc,L;a Totl

T Cri IMnLr.Jas tQSLAN!jRTTI5TICNj O 07 ZA&L ;

LANAL CELJ'TY WOKS 6,4 -,,, 1Q

CANh L , A I TY O' ,,5 6 CAN4L C0NTRT' STRUCTUR;ESL T,-t 2 2 10.1 AOhQTT'WEED CONTROL Q 2 O 2 0 9 MAIN AND SECONDARYDRATINAGIE WORKS 1. 1.2 1.0 1.0 45 SECONDARY( CHAK % DRAINAGE - BUIDINGSi AND TELECOMS ' 0,4 0.4 0.4 1.7 CANALSIDERsOADS A,ND IDGES 0,P 0.7 0.6 0.6 2 6 EQUPJIMENT 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 -2.

Sub6-Total>NOR0.E??NR A 15.0 12,7 12.7 57,8

H4ANALEWPIUTTY WORKS 2,0 1.7 1.5 1.5 6.6 T AHhL hF-LI Y WORKS 2I6 2.3 1.9 1,9 8.8 T 'NAL F.O STRUCTURESUN 43,1 36 3.0 30; 13.7 qAT'Ch WEEDlCONTROL 0,2 0.2 0.1 0 1 0.6 ? AND"' rnNDARYDsRAINAG-E WORKS 1.3 1,1 1.0 1.0 4.4 SECONDARYI CHAK ' DRAINAsGE BUILDINGS.AND TELECMnS 0.30 .3 0.2 0. 1.0 C.A,NA LIDCE TLiEROADS AND BRIDGES 0.6 0 fl5Q ,5 2.10t FAi CNT KOTIWAL -FOWA TANKS 0.5 .4. 0.4 0.4 1.6 ECUITPiPENT 0. 30.30.2 0.2 120

T.:I+..', -A'-TI T6,0 30.0 v 2..2.0 100.1

I -r.ARTTP pn.;C

h "N'ANEEPiMINIST D- RATT ANDSUPERVIS. I 3 .6 3 .1 3, 114 .0

Tovta3XOERATING . C sl' COSr; t;TS4 ? A^,23.6 31 3.1 14.0

C~~~SCt TXJ~~~~~ P71570 ~~~~74t2 2- C -2 4

------= -= -= - -= - =- - -= -= - - -= -= = -=-= = -== = _ - -41- ANNEX 1 Table T-4

NOIAI CLHABAL MADHYAPPADESH i IRFPIATITON I T PROJECT T8z1e 102.!,LOST LETIMATES FOQR AUMENTATION TUBEWEL FACIL;TIESIN AMBAHINTENSIVE AREA etaled, Cost Ts3ls

Bzse Costs "Rupses Million)

92/53 83/i4 S4/CS 85/86 Totpl

ELiMINARYWOR1hS 0.0 O,O 0.1 O.1 0M2 IEL O 'FCTr T -CIN DE E'i O T bNIITESTING 2 4 5.8 5.8 19i3 - RIF7NNJ- iNIT' INSTALLED 1.5 2t5 2.9 2i9 9el r cDPNkE-yANCEFFOMWE.L TO ERNAL 0 r50.9 Qtt 1tl 1,1 - ,XFEilIN^ENTALSTORAGE RESERVOIR AT t. SITS FDF C3NSTANT FLOW REGULhTiN 0.0 0t1 0.1 0.1 0.3 F. ELECTFRIALTRANSMISSION ANDTRANSFORMATION. 4 4 7t4 B8. 8.8 29 4 -+EiUIFR,ENT AND "EHICLEC IvNCLUDIN1:GRfO;UNDWATER NONITORIN5 3 5 0.6 O,Q 20 H.tDUiDIN.GS.^4v 0.1 0W2 0',+. q-20.2 0 G,GROUNDWATER MONITOFING WELLS AND EGUiTFMENT 0.1 0,2 02 0,2 0,6

T J3;T3 RL,R3I COnSTS 9.9 16,5 1097 19,7 6568

- -Di'T)F.4I t-lCT'_

'N RTNG,,ITFN5ADMIN4STRFATION AND UPEYTEIGN IA 232t 2.8 '., D.3

Tots! ORD,ATINGC-STS 1.7 2.3 2,8 2.8 9.3

E =NE=E = = 7 =; =2 = = 0= = 2=,======5 ====

------.- - -.------42-- ANNEX1 Table T-5

I NDIh CHAMBAL( MADHYA PRADIESH IRRIGATTON II PROJECT Tsble 103. COSTESTIMATES FOR MINOR DISTRIPUTTIlN fC'ANAL NETWORKTINAMBAH INTENSIVE AREA Oet2g1eqCost TAble

B8, Cos+tc -Rupeee M1---:.

I. CACITALCOSTS

A. LANDAQUISITION 0 I 1.1 1 2

R. REGULATINGANDMEASURING STRUCTURES a/ i ;!,L 4f. rC LININGOF MINOR SERYING 40-250 Ha BLOCKS 3 6. 11.6 11. !

D.LINING OF WATERCOURSES:IN 40 Ha 'LOCKS 7,, 5,0 14.0 14.4 4°

TotalCAPITAL COTS Bo 17,3 1,2 3'n2.0 0,

!I,OPERATING CSTS

Ai ENGINEERING1ADMINISTRATION ANDS-UPERVISION l,1 2.4 4.2 4.t 12.0

TCtal OPERATINGCOST' ~.z 1.1 2.4 i 2,0

_=_=Z= _= = = = =_======7= ==::= _ Total BASELINECOSTS 9.1I "i-0 2 35.4 3.4 1010 a/ Including automatic gate system in distributary 35R.

June:, 17 .1536 -43- ANNEX 1 Table T-6

TNMit I A. H'i4M,ALMtAHYh F'PRADESH IRIRTATION II PRnJECT is. Iei54. COSTESTIMATC FOR RVTNE ARFRESTATTIOj AND CANALSHI.E PL,-ANTATITiN l½ta4 ed,' Cst T2 bA1r

s-:seA , . s

AN AftjLIE.TTITM -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~2 33 ?34,/-Qc ;

EARTuWORK f', C -7 C ... ______. ___

T+ , T, P, A TD -Ti_fv _ AVTNEi T_ AFRE CTA T Tn 7 ,

'-' r!''.4AtT! TFE CLnTs-n s., -,: ,+, ..

M'INE C.TU .E C C.1;I 321,i

4F0 Q 1)I L. ..-.0 . 3,.

',li' ,-p h!oi, -44- ANNEX1 Table T-7

INDIIA CHAMBALf MADHYAPFRADEESH ) IFfRIGATION II PROJECT T2bl} 10M,COST ESTIMATES OF ROAt'SCOMPONENT Detai1ed OGStTab19

Base Costs R'ueesMillion) ______52./3393!84 84/.5 85/86 Total

T PITAL OrSTS

A. LANDAQUISITION 0.1 0+1 0.1 0.1 0.3 i CIVIL WORKS

BLACKTOPROADS 4,3 946 8.5 8.2 35.6 WATERBOUNDMACADAM ROADS 4.4 4.5 4.0 3.9 16.8 BUILTIINGS 0. 0C.8 Oi7 0.7 3.0

6;b-Tot31 CIVIL WORKS 14.4 15.0 13.3 12.7 55.4 C. EQUIPMENTAND SPARE DARTS 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 5.5 D. ENEINEERFINCSTUDY 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5

-,ta:CAPITAL COSTS16.0 16.7 14.8 14.2 61.7

:.ZOPERATING COSTS

'. ENGINEEPlINS.!fDiDINISTTcA TTnN ANDLSUPERVISION 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.08.7

2*e O-E'dT:G COSTS 2. 2.4 2.1 - 2,0 8,7

BASELITNEC. - 18,3 19.0 16.9 16.2 70.4

------=------= = - - -45- ANNEX1 Table T-8

I N11,IA CHAMBA-MAr;HYA H RADES IRRIATION TFRJECT II T2.1l 10,6.CFOIST OFMONTTOORING, EYALUATION AND STUDIES

D!et3iled Cojst T i1b

BaseCosts ~.RRupees'000)

V2/93 A -O11/34 8O o56 Tota-

'.'DTTA I i 7'CTC.

R.REG UL AR STAFF Z10,0 0.O, 232.0 250.0 910,0 i. TAFFON ;EFUTATION.7ONSUL ANITS 50,0 50.0 50,0 50,0 200.0 i- h'TNCREENTALOC-TOF -POF CUTTING SURVEYS 1 00. 0 50.0 50.0 100.0 300.0 '; 'TAFFTRA TNTNC - 1000, - - 100,0 r. 'FFICTErEOUI'MENT 30. - - - 30,0 '. !E;HICLES./ 75-' - ' 5.0 F;. FELOSHIPSA!! 10.0 30.0 40.0 40.0 120.0 HLWATER 0TECEOUCEC4NDMANAGENENT STPUDIES 1Al,0A300. 0 300.0 300.0 17000,0

_Tal CAFITALCOSTS 55,50 750,0 670.0 740.0 2.735.0

oTA DEELINE CSTS 575,o 750.0 670.0 740.0 20735iO

Tr1f u~ broac oR i, Eoonoimist.

i4M4' StUdHS iY sen%'?4i staff,

------1- C------46-

ANNEX1 Table T-9

TNlDI CHAMBALMADHYAM PRAPESH IRFISATTIN IT RIOFJEST Table 107. COSTOF TRAINING AND TECVHNECAS cEF1 Detailei Cost Table

Base CoLits FRupeesM 1 ;!"r'

=_== -=== ==: _r :=

I. CAPITALCOSTE

A. TRAININGINSTITUTE

BUILDINCS f

OFFICESU'PLt IAINTENANCE - O.1 0,1 0 'i STUDYTOURS .1 0.2 0.5 INCREMENTALSALP.I- '- 1 r2 I3,.37 0. MISCELLANEOU O.2 C. ILei, C.

Sub-TotalTPR,AThiO 4 INSTITUTE '' , 2 B. TECH4NTrCALSERVICE

To,tal CAPITALCOS .- '

TotalBASE INE COST ' 0.

June 8. 11932 15:3e 47- ANNEX 1 Table T-10

INDIA

CRAMBAL (MADHYA PRADESH) IRRIGATION II PROJECT

Cost of Equipment

Units Unit Price Total Cost

A. Irrigation and Drainage Network in Non-Intensive Area

Jeep 5 80,000 400,000 Motorcycle 10 12,000 120,000 Truck 3 225,000 675,000 Road Roller 5 200,000 1,000,000 Vibrator Compactor 2 400,000 800,000

Sub-total 2,995,000

B. Augmentation Tubewell Facilities in Ambah Intensive Area

Jeeps 2 80,000 160,000 Light Trucks 9 100,000 900,000 Motorcycles 10 12,000 120,000 Central Workshop Equipment 1 500,000 500,000 Monitoring Equipment 320,000

Sub-total 2,000,000

C. Ravine Arrestation

Sub-total 2,100,000

D. Roads

Road rollers, 8-10 Ton 8 200,000 1,000,000 Agricultural Tractors 10 75,000 750,000 Water Tankers, Trailer mounted, 800-1,000 gal. 10 20,000 200,000 Trailers 10 20,000 200,000 Asphalt Mixers 12 25,000 300,000 Tar Boilers 24 6,000 144,000 Mobile Laboratory Vehicles, 4-Wheel Drive 4 100,000 400,000 Inspection Vehicles, 4-Wheel Drive 8 75,000 600,000 Automobile 1 80,000 80,000 Field Workshop and Testing Equipment L.S. 400,000 Survey and Office Equipment L.S. 100,000 Spare Parts 726,000

Sub-total 5,500,000

E. Monitoring, Evaluation and Studies

Vehicles 1 75,000 75,000 Office Equipment 30,000

Sub-total 105,000

Total Cost of Equipment 12,700,000 -48- ANNEX 1 Table T-11

INDIA

CHAMBAL (MADHYA PRADESH) IRRIGATIONII PROJECT

Project Component by Time 1/ (ImplementationSchedule)

82/83 2/ 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 3/ Total ------(Rs )------

A. Ambah Intensive Block Development (AIBD)

AugmentationWells 8.1 14.9 17.5 18.2 7.1 65.8 DistributionSystem 6.4 15.5 26.7 28.5 8.7 85.8

Sub-TotalAmbah Intensive Block Development (AIBD) 14.5 30.4 44.2 46.7 15.8 151.6

B. Irrigationand Drainage 24.4 22.9 19.1 19.9 11.3 97.6 B. Ravine Arrestationand Canal-SidePlantations 4.3 6.3 6.8 7.0 2.6 27.0 D. Roads 13.3 14.9 12.5 12.7 8.0 61.4 E. Monitoringand Studies 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.2 2.7 F. Training and Technical Services 0.6 4.5 2.4 2.1 1.1 10.77 G. Land Acquisition 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.8 0.4 6.3 H. Engineering,Supervision and Administration 8.1 10.1 11.8 12.2 5.6 47.8

Total BASELINE COSTS 66.9 91.2 99.0 103.0 45.0 405.1 Physical Contingencies 10.0 14.8 16.2 17.0 6.6 64.6 Price Contingencies 3.1 14.0 24.8 36.0 8.7 86.6

Total PROJECT COSTS 80.0 120.0 140.0 156.0 60.3 556.3

1/ By GOMP Fiscal Year April 1-March 31. 2/ Nine months July 1, 1982 to March 31, 1983. 3/ Three months April 1, 1986 to June 30, 1986. -49- ANNEX 1 Table T-12

INDIA

CRAMBAL(MADHYA PRADESH) IRRIGATION II PROJECT

Estimated Disbursement Schedule

IDA Fiscal Year and Semester During Semester Cumulative ---- - (US$ M)------

1983

1st 2nd 2.0 2.0

1984

lst 3.0 5.0 2nd 3.5 8.5

1985

1st 4.0 12.5 2nd 4.5 17.0

1986

1st 4.5 21.5 2nd 4.5 26.0

1987

1st 3.0 29.0 2nd 2.0 31.0 -50- ANNEX1 Table T-13

INDIA

CHAMBAL(MADHYA PRADESH) IRRIGATION II PROJECT

Proposed Credit Allocations

Category US$ M

(1) Civil Works 25.5 65%

(2) Equipment and Vehicles (includingpumping units) 2.0 100% of foreign expenditures; or 100% of ex-factory price; or 70%

(3) Monitoring, Studies and Technical Services 1.5 100% of expenditures

(4) Unallocated 2.0

Total 31.0 INDIA

CHAAMBAL(MADHYA PRADESH) IRRIGATION II PROJECT

Present and Projected Cropping Patterns

AIBD Canal Improvement Presently Irrigated Areas Presently Rainfed Areas Presently Irrigated Areas Presently Rainfed Areas (26,700 ha) (13,300 ha) (149,000 ha) (19,000 ha) P W W P W W P W W P W W IRR RF IRR RF IRR RF RF RF IRR RF IRR R 1RRI RF IRR RF RF RF IRR RF ------((%of Net CCA)

KHARIF

HYV Paddy - - - - 9 - - - 9 - 7 - 7 - 13 - _ _ 13 - Local Paddy - - - - 3 - _ _ 3 - 3 3 4 4 Hybrid Sorghum - - - - 2 - - - 2 - 3 - 3 - 3 - - - 3 - Local Sorghum - 2 - 2 - 1 13 13 - 1 - 5 - 5 - 5 13 13 - 5 Hybrid Millet - 6 - 11 - 12 - - -12 - 3 -13 - 13 - - - 13 Local Millet - 11 - 6 - 10 - - -10 -13 - 3 - 3 - - - 3 Hybrid Maize - - - - 3 - - - 3 - 2 - 2 - 2 - _ _ 2 - Pulses - 7 - 7 15 9 13 13 15 9 8 5 8 5 8 5 13 13 8 5 Soybean - - - - 3 - - - 3 - 3 - 3 - 3 - - - 3 - Groundnut - - - - 1 - - - 1 - 2 _ 2 _ 2 _ 2 _

Sub-Total - 26 - 26 36 32 26 26 36 32 28 26 28 26 35 26 26 26 35 26

Kharif Cropping Intensity (%) 26 26 68 26 26 68 54 54 61 26 26 61

RABI

HYV Wheat 45 - 45 - 45 - - - 45 - 32 _ 32 - 37 - - - 37 - Local Wheat 5 - 5 - - - 41 41 - - 6 - 6 - - - 41 41 - _ Gram 19 2 19 2 6 3 17 17 6 3 10 8 10 8 11 8 17 17 11 8 Mustard 18 4 18 4 10 5 9 9 10 5 14 4 14 4 13 4 9 9 13 4 Potato 2 - 2 - 3 - - 2 23 - 3 -

Sub-Total 89 6 89 6 64 8 67 67 64 8 64 12 64 12 64 12 67 67 64 12

Total Area

Rabi Cropping Intensity 95 95 72 67 67 72 76 76 76 67 67 76

Total Cropping Intensity (%) 121 121 140 93 93 140 130 130 137 93 93 137

Irrigation Intensity 89 89 100 - - 100 92 92 99 - - 99

N Note: P Present,W Future Without Project, and W Future With Project. INDIA

CHAMBAL(NADHYA PRADES1i) IRRIGATION II PROJECT

Area, Yield and Production

AIBD

Presently Irrigated Areas (26,700 ha) Presently Rainfed Areas (13,300 ha) Future Future Present Without Project Future With Project Present Without Project Future With Project Pro- Pro- Pro- Pro- Pro- Pro- Area Yield duction Area Yield duction Area Yield duction Area Yield duction Area Yield duction Area Yield duction ha t/ha t ha t/ha t ha t/ha t ha t/ha- t ha t/ha t fi 71i- t KHARIF IRRIGATED

HYV Paddy ------2,400 3.5 8,400 ------1,200 3.5 4,200 Local Paddy ------800 2.45 1,960 ------400 2.4 960 Hybrid Sorghum ------530 2.75 6,050 ------270 2.75 742 Hybrid Maize ------800 2.5 2,000 ------400 2.5 1,000 Pulses ------4,000 0.95 3,800 ------2,000 0.95 1,900 Soybean ------800 1.2 960 ------400 1.2 480 Groundnut ------270 2.0 540 ------130 2.0 260

KHARIF RAINFED

Local Sorghum 530 0.8 424 530 1.0 530 270 1.0 270 1,730 0.8 1,384 1,730 1.0 1,730 130 1.0 130 Hybrid Millet 1,600 1.7 2,720 2,900 2.1 6,090 3,200 2.1 6,720 ------1,600 2.1 3,360 Local Millet 2,900 0.8 2,320 1,600 1.2 1,920 2,670 1.2 3,200 ------1,330 1.2 1,596 Pulses 1,870 0.5 935 1,870 0.65 1,215 2,400 0.65 1,560 1,730 0.5 865 1,730 0.65 1,125 1,200 0.65 780

Sub-Total 6,900 6,900 18,140 3,460 3,460 9,060

Kharif Cropping Intensity (%) 26 26 68 26 26 68

RABI IRRIGATED

HYV Wheat 12,000 1.6 19,200 12,000 2.35 28,200 12,000 2.95 35,400 ------6,000 2.95 17,700 Local Wheat 1,330 1.0 1,330 1,330 1.0 1,330 - - - - _- - Gram 5,070 0.8 4,056 5,070 0.9 4,563 1,600 1.25 2,000 ------800 1.25 1,000 Mustard 4,800 0.7 3,360 4,800 0.9 4,320 2,670 0.9 2,400 - - - _ _ _ 1,330 0.9 1,200 Potato 530 10.0 5,300 530 12.0 6,360 800 12.0 9,600 ------400 12.0 4,800 RABI RAINFED

Gram 530 0.5 265 530 0.8 424 800 0.8( 640 3,270 0.50 1,635 2,270 0.80 1,816 400 0.80 320 Mustard 1,070 0.55 589 1,070 0.7 749 1,330 0.70 930 1,200 0.55 660 1,200 0.70 840 670 0.70 470 Local Wheat ------5,470 1.0 5,470 5,470 1.1 6,017 - - -

Sub-Total 25,330 25,330 19,200 8,940 8,940 9,600

Rabi Cropping

Intensity (%) 95 95 72 67 67 72 , ,-2

Net Area (ha) 26,700 26,700 26,700 13,300 13,300 13,300 X

Cropped Area (ha) 32,230 32,230 37,340 12,400 12,400 18,660

Total Cropping Intensity (X) 121 121 140 93 93 140 INDIA

CHAMBAL(MADHYA PRADESH) IRRIGATION II PROJECT

Area, Yield and Production

Incremental Agricultural Production Canal Improvement 1/ in AIBD and Canal Improvement 2/ Presently Rainfed Areas (19,000 ha) Future Future Present Future Without Project Future With Project Without With Incremental Area Yield Production Area Yield Production Area Yield Production Project Project Production ha t/ha t ha t/ha t ha t/ha t (tJ It (t

KHARIF IRRIGATED

HYV Paddy ------2,470 3.0 7,410 - 20,010 20,010 Local Paddy ------760 1.9 1,444 - 4,364 4,364 Hybrid Sorghum ------570 2.4 1,368 - 8,160 8,160 Hybrid Maize - - - - - 380 2.3 874 - 3,874 3,874 Pulses ------1,520 0.95 1,444 - 7,144 7,144 Soybean ------570 1.2 684 - 2,124 2,124 Groundnut ------380 1.75 665 - 1,465 1,465

KHARIF RAINFED

Local Sorghum 2,470 0.8 1,976 2,470 1.0 2,470 950 1.0 950 4,730 1,350 3,380 Hybrid Millet ------2,470 1.85 4,570 6,090 14,650 8,560 Local Millet ------570 1.1 627 1,920 5,423 3,503 Pulses 2,470 0.5 1,235 2,470 0.65 1,605 950 0.65 618 3,945 2,958 987

Sub-Total 4,940 4,940 11,590

Kharif Cropping Intensity (X) 26 26 61

RABI IMIGATED

HYV Wheat ------7,030 2.35 16,520 28,200 69,620 41,420 Local Wheat ------1,330 - 1,330 Gram ------2,090 0.9 1,881 4,563 4,881 318 Mustard ------2,470 0.9 2,223 4,320 5,823 1,503 Potato ------570 12.0 6,840 6,360 21,240 14,880

RABI RAINFED

Gram 3,230 0.5 1,615 3,230 0.80 2,584 1,520 0.80 1,216 4,824 2 176 2,648 Mustard 1,710 0.55 940 1,710 0.70 1,200 760 0.70 532 2,789 1,932 857 Local Wheat 7,790 1.0 7,790 _7_90 1.1 8,570 - - - 14,587 - 14,587

Sub-Total 12,730 12,730 14,440

Rabi Cropping Intensity (%) 67 67 76

Net Area (ha) 19,000 19,000 19,000

Cropped Area (ha) 17,670 17,670 26,030

Total Cropping Intensity (%) 93 93 137

1/ The irrigation and drainage improvement areas of aboutl68,000 ha consists of about 19,000 ha that are presently under rainfed conditions and M 149,000 ha that are presently irrigated. The incremental benefits in the presently irrigated areas would be limited to an increase of about ,", 10,400 ha planted under paddy as a result of better drainage and water distribution. ci

2/ Incremental agricultural production on 149,000 ha of presently irrigated areas would be limited to about 34,000 t of paddy. ANNEX 1 Table T-16 -54-

INDIA

CHAMBAL (MADHYA PRADESH) IRRIGATION II PROJECT

Economic and Financial Prices (Rs/Ton)

Crops Financial Prices Economic Prices 1980/81 1990 1980/81 1990

Paddy - HYV 1,230 1,460 1,980 2,270 - Local 1,330 1,580 2,140 2,440 Groundnut 2,350 2,940 3,070 2,840 Fodder 100 100 80 80 Maize - HYV 1,090 1,490 1,330 1,810 Wheat - Mexican 1,450 1,690 1,510 1,760 - Local 1,650 1,920 1,750 2,040 Gram 1,950 2,000 2,370 2,430 Potato 700 700 850 850 Mustard 3,200 3,200 3,890 3,890 Millet 970 970 1,180 1,180 Sorghum 1,200 1,870 1,460 2,270 Soy Bean 2,220 2,550 2,700 3,100 Pulses 2,220 2,220 2,700 2,700 Onion/Vegetables 700 700 850 850 Linseed 3,200 3,200 1,890 3,890

Inputs Unit

Urea (N) Rs/kg 4.3 4.7 5.5 6.0 TSP (P) Rs/kg 3.9 4.6 4.9 5.8 Potasium Chloride (K) Rs/kg 1.9 1.9 2.5 2.5 FYM/Compost Rs/T 24.0 24.0 19.0 19.0

Wage Rates

Farm Labor - Rainfed Area 3.4 3.4 2.2 2.2 Irrigated Area 4.3 4.3 3.0 3.0 Bullock Pair (per day) 12.0 12.0 9.0 9.0 -55- ANNEX 1 Table T-17

INDIA

CHAMBAL (MADHYAPRADESH) IRRIGATION II PROJECT

Present Average Water Charges - MP State 1/

A. IrrigationUse

Crop ------(Rs/ha)------Long-term Agreement Demand Rate

Paddy 40 60 Other Kharif Foodgrains 20 25 Wheat - 37 Pulses 30 30 Rabi Maize - 40 Groundnuts (kharif) 30 30 Cotton 40 40 Sugarcane (12 months) - 100 Perennial tree crops 100 100

B. Industrialand Domestic Use (Rs per 10,000 ft3)

IndustrialUse 6.0 Domestic Use 6.0 Water supply to village tanks (Kharif) 3.0 (Rabi) 6.0

C. Water-relatedCharges 2/ (Rs/ha)

Sugarcane 10 Cotton 5 Groundnut 5

1/ As of December 1980 2/ Commercial crop taxes. -56- ANNEX 1 Table T-18 INDIA Page 1

CHAMBAL (MADHYA PRADESH) IRRIGATION II PROJECT

Financial Crop Budgets for AIBD Areas

A. PRESENTLY IRRIGATED AREAS:

CROP-NAME SEASON % OF CCA YIELD BYPRODUCT GROSS RETURN INPUT cosr NET RETURN WA3TER REO. NEI RETURN j M3 t/Ha t/Ha ------Rs/Ha------M /Ha Rs/Ha CROPS AT PRESENT

LOC S ORGHUM KHARIF 2.0 0.80 1.70 1062 635 427 HYB MILLET KHARIF 6.0 1.70 1.50 1739 747 992 LOC MILLET KHARIF 11.0 0.80 0.70 818 598 220 PULSES KHARIF 7.0 0.50 0.60 1185 511 674 WHEAT HYV RABI 45.0 1.60 2.50 2795 1247 1548 3140 0.4930 LOC WHEAT RABI 5.0 1.00 1.40 1916 957 959 3490 0.2748 GRAM RABI 19.0 0.80 0.80 1712 778 934 990 0.9434 MUSTARD RABI 18.0 0.70 0.00 2240 899 1341 1000 1.3412 POTATO RABI 2.0 10.00 0.00 7500 5084 2416 2250 1.0738 GRAM RABI 2.0 0.50 0.50 920 682 238 MUSTARD RAB1 4.0 0.55 0.60 1760 795 965

CROPS FUlURE WITHOUT PROOECT

LOC S ORGHUM KHARIF 2.0 1.00 4.00 2110 764 1346 HYB MILLE1 KHARIF 11.0 2.10 1.70 2139 1168 971 LOC MILLET KHARIF 6.0 1.20 1.00 1224 728 496 PULSES KHARIF 7.0 0.65 0.40 1493 535 958 WHEAT HYV RARI 45.0 2.35 2.40 4428 1724 2704 3140 0.8610 LOC WHEAT RABI 5.0 1.10 1.50 2397 967 1430 3490 0.4096 GRAM RABI 19.0 0.90 0.90 1971 903 1068 990 1.0786 MUSTARD RABI 18.0 0.90 0.00 2880 1264 1616 1000 1.6157 POTATO RABI 2.0 12.00 0.00 9000 5912 3088 2250 1.3723 GRAM RABI 2.0 0.80 0.80 1688 1118 570 MUSTARD RABI 4.0 0.70 0.00 2240 912 1328

B. PRESENTLY RAINFED AREAS:

cROPs AT PRESENT

l.OC S ORGHUM KHARIF 13.0 0.80 3.30 1694 576 1118 PULSES KHARIF 13.0 0.50 0.40 1150 464 686 LOC WHEAT RABI 41.0 1.00 1.40 1916 1042 874 GRAM RABI 17.0 0.50 0.50 570 640 70 MUSTARD RABI 9.0 0.55 0.50 1760 737 1023

CROPS FUTURE WITHOUT PROJECT

LOC S ORGHUM KHARIF 13.0 1.00 4.00 2110 701 1409 PULSES KHARIF 13.0 0.65 0.40 1480 486 994 LOC WHEAT RABI 41.0 1.10 1.50 2397 857 1540 GRAM RAEI 17.0 0.80 0.80 1752 1066 656 MUSTARD RABI 9.0 0.70 0.00 2240 844 1396

CROPS FUTURE WITH PROJECT-

PADDY HYV KHARIF 9.0 3.50 3-50 5460 2122 3338 4060 0.8221' [OC PADDY KHARIF 3.0 2.45 2.50 4121 164B 2473 4230 0.5845 HYB S ORGHt)M KHARIF 2.0 2.75 5.40 5467 1478 3989 1060 3.7632 HYB MAIZE KHARIF 3.0 2.50 2.70 3887 1419 24G8 470 5.2501 PULSES KHARIF 15.0 0.95 1.20 2240 1067 1173 500 2.3464 SOYBEAN KHARIF 3.0 1.20 0.00 3060 1199 1861 300 6.2049 GROUNDNUT KHARIF 1.0 2.00 2.90 5880 1840 4040 1020 3.9605 LOC S ORGHUM KHARIF 1.0 1.00 2.00 1990 764 1226 HYR MILLET KHARTF 12.0 2.10 1.70 2139 1246 893 LOC MILLET KHARIF 10.0 1.20 1.00 1224 733 491 PULSES KHARIF 9.0 0.65 0.80 1530 677 853 WHEAT HYV RABI 45.0 2.95 4.00 5746 1776 3969 3140 1.2640 GRAM RABI 6.0 1.25 1.30 2747 1232 1515 990 1.5303 MUSTARD RABI 10.0 0.90 0.00 2880 1264 1616 1000 1.6157 POTATO RABI 3.0 12.00 0.00 9000 5912 3088 2250 1.3723 GRAM RABI 3.0 0.80 0.80 1752 1118 634 MUSTARD RABI 5.0 0.70 0.00 2240 912 1328

NOTE 5% CONTINGENCIES ARE ADDED TO INPUT COST

1/ Uniform for Total Project Area. -57-- ANM4E I Table T-18 INDIA Page 2 CHA14BAL(MADHYA PRADESH) IRRIGATION II PROJECT

Financial Crop Budgets for Canal Improvement Areas

A. PRESENTLY IRRIGATED AREAS:

CROP-NAME SEASON% OF CCA YIELD BYPRODUCT GPOSS RETURN INPUT COST NET RETURN WAJER REQ NET RETURN I M3 ,-/Ha tIHa ------Es/Ha ------H /Ha Rs/Ha CROPS AT PRESENT

PADDY HYV KHAPIF 7.0 2.20 2.20 2772 1676 i09B 4060 0.2699 LOC PADDY KHARIF 3.0 1.25 2.R0 1910 1305 605 4230 0.i430 HYB S ORGHUM KHARIF 3.0 1.50 2.00 1980 1099 Bel 1060 0.8315 HYR MAIZE KHAR IF 2.0 1.40 1.80 1634 1139 495 470 1.0533 PULSES KHARIF 5.0 0.75 0.60 1725 921 804 500 1.6088 SOYBEAN KHARIF 3.0 0.80 0.00 1760 821 939 300 3.1299 GROUNDNUT KHARIF 2.0 1.25 1.80 2938 1434 1503 1020 1.4736 [DC S ORGHUM KHARIF 5.0 0.60 3.30 1694 636 1055 HYB MILLET KHARIF 13.0 1.70 1.60 1745 749 996 LOC MILLET KHARIF 3.0 0.80 0.60 824 941 263 PUL SES KHAR IF 5.0 0.50 0.40 1150 513 637 WHEAT HYV RARI 32.0 1.60 1.60 2624 1273 1351 3120 0.4331 LOG WHEAT RABI 6.0 1.00 1.50 1935 959 976 3490 0.2797 GRA M RABI 10.0 0.60 0.60 1712 774 938 990 0.9476 MUSTARD 9461 14.0 0.70 0.00 2240 904 375 100 1.3364 POTATO RA61 2.0 10.00 0.00 7500 5100 2400 2250 i.0667 GRAM RARI 8.0 0.50 0.50 920 1162 -242 MUSTARD PA461 4.0 0.55 0.00 1760 957 903

CROPS FUTURE WITHOUT PROJECT

PADDY HYV KHARIF 7.0 3.00 3.00 5790 2022 3769 4060 0.9281 LOG PADDY KHARIF 3.0 1.90 3.60 3362 1824 lASS 4230 0.3683 HYB S ORGHUM KHARIF 3.0 2.40 4.50 4776 1352 3424 1060 3.2299 HYB MAIZE KHARIF 3.0 2.30 2.90 3601 1387 2214 470 4.7098 PULSES KHAR IE 8.0 0 99 0.70 2178 1062 IllS 500 2.2303 SOYBEAN KHARIF 3.0 1.20 0.00 3060 1198 1862 300 6.2063 GROUNDNUT KHAR IF 2.0 1.79 2.50 9145 1821 3324 1020 3.2590 LOC S ORGHUM KHARIF 5.0 1.00 4.00 3110 766 1344 HYR MILLET RHARIF 13.0 1.65 1.70 1897 1170 726 LOC MILLET KHARIF 3.0 1.10 1.00 1127 729 398 PULSE S KHARIF 3.0 0.65 0.50 1493 536 956 WHEAT HSV SARI 32.0 2.39 2.40 4428 1731 32697 3140 0.6569 [DC WHEAT RARI 6.0 1.10 1.70 2435 1066 1369 3490 0.3924 GRA M 6461 1 0.0 0.90 0.90 1899 930 969 990 0.9788 MUSTARD 956I 14.0 0.90 0.00 2880 1269 1611 1000 i.6107 POTATO RABI 2.0 12.00 0.00 9000 5932 3066 2250 1.3634 GRAM RABI 8.0 0.60 0.60 1650 947 703 MUSTARD 6561 4.0 0.70 0.00 2240 917 1323

B. PRESENTY RAINFE] AREAS,

CROPS AT PRESENT

LOG S OPGHUM KHARIF 13.0 0.80 3 30 1694 976 1118 PUL SES KHARIF 13.0 0.50 0.40 1150 464 686 LOG WHEAT 6461 41.0 1.00 1.50 1935 845 1089 GRAM 6561 17.0 0.90 0.90 570 637 -57 MUSTARD 6ABI 9.0 0.59 0.00 1760 785 972

CROPS FUTURE WITHOUT PROJECT

LOG S ORGHUM KHARIF 13.0 1.00 2.00 1990 701 1289 PULSES KHARIF 13.0 0.65 0.60 1530 627 903 LOG WHEAT R561 41.0 1.10 1.70 2435 927 1506 GRAM R56I 17.0 0.80 0.80 1752 1066 586 MUSTARD 6561 9.0 0.70 0.00 2240 644 1396

CROPS FUTURE WITH PROJECTI/

P4DDY HIS KHAR1F 13.0 3.00 3.00 4650 7020 2660 4060 0.6553 LOG PADDYM KHARIF 4.0 1.90 3.80 3362 1824 1556 4230 0.35683 HYB SORGHUM KHARIF 3.0 2.40 4.80 4776 1351 3425 1060 3.2309 HYB MAIZE KHARIF 2.0 2.30 2.90 3601 1352 2219 470 4.7217 PULSES KHARIF 8.0 0.95 0.70 2178 1044 1133 900 2.2664 SOYBEAN KHARIF 3.0 1.20 0.00 3060 1199 1861 300 6.2049 GROUNDNUT KHARIF 2.0 1.75 2.50 5149 1821 3324 1020 3.2593 LOG S ORGHUM KHARIF 5.0 1.00 4.00 2110 764 1346 fiyR MILLET KHARIF 13.0 1.65 1.70 1897 1165 728 LOG MILLET KHAR IF 3.0 110 I1.00 1127 728 399 PULSES KHARIF 5.0 0 65 0.50 1493 539 957 WHEAT HYV P461 37.0 2.35 2.40 4428 1724 2704 3140 0.6610 GRAM 8461 11.0 0 90 0.90 4971 903 1065 990 1.0786 MUSTARD R56I 13.0 0 90 0.00 2880 1264 161E 1000 1.6157 POTATO R561 3.0 12.00 0.00 8400 5912 2455 2250 1.1057 G599 RA6I 8.0 0.60 0.60 1714 945 766 MUJSTARID RAS81 4.0 0.70 0.00 2340 512 1326

NOTE: 9% CONTINGENCIES ARE ADDED TO INPUT COST

I/ Uniform for Total Project Area, INDIA

CHAMBAL (MADHYA PRADESH) IRRIGATION II PROJECT

TypicalL Farm-~~~~~/ Models-l

Gross Hired Other 2 Total Net Time Value Labor Inputs- Inputs Value-

I. AIBD

a. Presently Irrigated Areas P 6.290 510 2,440 2,950 3,340 W 9,020 580 3,320 3,900 5.120 W 12,790 740 4,250 4,990 7,800

b. Presently Rainfed Areas P 3,380 260 1,520 1,780 1,600 W 4,680 290 1,540 1,830 2,850 W 12,790 740 2,070 4,990 7,800

II. CANAL IMPROVEMENT

a. Presently Irrigated Areas P 6,530 600 2,780 3,380 3,150 W 9,790 640 3,610 4,250 5,540 W 10,800 720 4,080 4,800 6,000

B. Presently Rainfed Areas P 3,400 260 1,320 1,580 1,820 W 4,700 290 1,650 1,940 2,770 w 10,800 720 4,080 4,800 6,000

P = Present; W - Future Without Project; and X W = Future With Project.

1/ For average farm size of 2.4 ha. 2/ Including land tax and water charges. 3 Net return to family labor and farm capital investment. INDIA

CHAMBAL(MADHYA PRADESH) IRRIGATION II PROJECT

Estimated Farm Budgets and Prolect Rent at Full Development (2.4 Ha Farm)

AIDB _ CANAL IMPROVEMENT Presently Irrigated Presently Rainfed Presently Irrigated Presently Rainfed Areas Areas Areas Areas

Farm Budget

Gross Value of Production 9,020 12,790 4,680 12,790 9,790 10,800 4,700 10,800 Total Labor Cost 880 1,120 420 1,120 960 1,070 420 1,070 Other Inputs l/ 2,920 3,760 1,410 3,760 3,190 3,620 1,520 3,620 Land Tax and Water Charge- 100 110 - 110 100 110 - 110 Total Cost 3,900 4,990 1,830 4,990 4,250 4,800 1,940 4,800

Net Value of Production 5,120 7,800 2,850 7,800 5,540 6,000 2,760 6,000 Reward to Family Labor 300 380 130 380 320 350 130 350 New Farm Family Income 5,420 8,180 2,980 8,180 5,860 6,350 2,890 6,350 Off-Farm Income 1,000 800 1,500 800 1,000 800 1,500 800 Net Family Income2/ 6,420 8,980 4,480 9,980 6,860 7,150 4,390 7,150 Per Capita Income- 1,170 1,630 820 1,630 1,250 1,300 800 1,300

Net Return to Farm 5,120 7,800 2,850 7,800 5,540 6,000 2,760 6,000 + (Tax + Water Charge) 100 110 - 110 100 110 - 110 Net Return Before Tax 5,220 7,910 2,850 7,910 5,640 6,110 2,760 6,110 - Risk Equivalent 3/ 900 1,300 1,400 1,300 980 1,080 1,410 1,080 - Management Fee 47 510 780 290 780 550 600 280 600 ImplicitLand Rent 3,810 5,830 1,160 5,830 4,110 4,130 1,070 4,430 Project Rent (Rs/ha) 840 1,950 130 1,400

l/ With present water rates and tax charges. X x 2/ Assumed family equivalentof five and a half persons. w ~ 3/ Risk Equivalent- Expected gross value of productionX farmers' risk aversion factor X coefficientof variation of X yields. The risk aversion factor is assumed at 1.5 in the presently rainfed areas and 1.0 in the presently irrigated ° areas. The coefficientof yield variationhas been assumed as 20% in presently rainfed areas and 10% in presently irrigatedareas in the without project situationand a uniform rate of 10% has been assumed in the with project situation. 4/ The reward for managementand entrepreneurship is primarily a premium for the special skills that farm management requires. Consequently,it has been assumed that the "managementfee" is equal to 10% of the net returns. -60- ANNEX1 Table T-21 INDIA

CHAMBAL(MADHYA PRADESH) IRRIGATION II PROJECT

Cost Recovery 1/ (Rs/ha)

Canal AIBD Improvement

Project Rent

Gross Value of Production 10,780 4,070 Production Cost 2/ 3,680 2,060 Net Cash Income 7,100 2,010 Less - Management Fee 1,130 380 - Risk Equivalent 770 100 Project Rent 5,200 1,530 Project Rent as a % of Net Cash Income 73% 76%

Cost Recovery

DIRECT: Water Charge 3/ 1,300 70 : Cess on Water Rate 20 10 Sub-Total (Gross IrrigatedArea) 1,320 80 Sub-Total (Net CCA) 4/ 1,330 80 INDIRECT: AgriculturalSales Tax (Rs per Net CCA) 400 140

Total Cost Recovery 1,730 220

Rent Recovery as a Z of Project Rent 33% 14%

Capital Cost 3,690 670

Operation and MaintenanceCost 750 360

Total Public Sector Outlays 4,440 1,030

Cost Recovery as a % of Project Cost 39% 21%

11 Expressed in Incrementalvalues discounted over 30 years at 12% in constant 1981 prices. 2/ Includes cost of labor and depreciationof capital. 3/ The calculationof water charges is based on the followingassupptions:

(i) the current water charges will be increasedby 50% in the coming year; (ii) the charges in the AIBD area will be gradually raised further at full development (by about year 10) until they reach 30% of the Incremental Project Rent (by about year 20). 4/ Irrigationintensity 100% in AIBD and 99% in Canal ImprovementArea. INDIA

CHAMBAL (MADHYA PRADESH) IRRIGATION II PROJECT

AIBD - Cost and Benefit Streams for Economic Analysis

Net Capital Cost in Total Incremental Incremental Total Incremental Periods Economic Prices 1/ O&M Costs Cost Benefits I 2/ Benefits II 3/ Benefits Benefits

1 21.36 0.00 21.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.36 2 34.50 1.21 35.71 2.67 1.33 4.00 31.71 3 47.98 2.46 50.44 8.00 5.34 13.34 37.10 4 47.08 3.81 50.89 16.68 11.34 28.02 22.87 5 0.00 4.53 4.53 27.35 18.68 46.03 41.50 6 0.00 4.53 4.53 35.35 25.35 60.70 56.17 7 0.00 4.53 4.53 40.02 30.68 70.70 65.64 8 0.00 4.53 4.53 42.02 34.02 76.04 71.51 9 0.00 4.53 4.53 42.69 36.02 78.71 74.18 10 0.00 4.53 4.53 42.69 37.35 80.04 75.51 11 0.80 4.53 5.33 42.69 37.35 80.04 74.71 12 1.30 4.53 5.83 42.69 37.35 80.04 74.21 13 1.60 4.53 6.13 42.69 37.35 80.04 73.91 14 1.54 4.53 6.07 42.69 37.35 80.04 73.97 15 0.00 4.53 4.53 42.69 37.35 80.04 75.51 16 3.07 4.53 7.60 42.69 37.35 80.04 72.44 17 4.99 4.53 9.52 42.69 37.35 80.04 70.52 18 6.14 4.53 10.67 42.69 37.35 80.04 69.37 19 5.91 4.53 10.44 42.69 37.35 80.04 69.60 20-30 0.00 4.53 4.53 42.69 37.35 80.04 75.51

1/ Capital Cost including Replacement Cost are estimated at December 1980 price level adjusted at the Construction Conversion Factor. 2/ Incremental Benefits I derived from areas irrigated at present (26,700 ha). AX 3/ Incremental Benefits II derived from areas presently rainfed (13,300 ha). -62- ANNEX1 Table T-23

INDIA

CHAMBAL (MADHYAPRADESH) IRRIGATION II PROJECT

Canal ImprovementArea - Cost and Benefits Streams for Economic Analysis (Rs M)

Capital Costl/ Net in 0 & M Total Incremental Periods Economic Prices Cost Benefits Benefits

1 43.83 0.00 0.00 -43.83 2 42.96 1.98 10.01 -34.93 3 39.33 3.71 25.35 -17.69 4 40.09 5.13 42.02 - 3.18 5 0.00 6.52 60.03 53.51 6 0.00 6.52 72.70 66.18 7 0.00 6.52 81.37 74.85 8 0.00 6.52 87.38 80.86 9 0.00 6.52 89.38 82.86 10-30 0.00 6.52 90.05 83.53

1/ Capital Costs are estimated at December 1980 price level adjusted by the ConstructionConversion Factor. INDIA ORGANiZATION CHART: IRRiGATION DEPARTMENT -CHAMBAL

Charnbal/8et,,a Basins r s _ on mm e_ an WE _ wn _ * Comn. Bhopa AreaAuthority Development Mngmn Board

l Cell

| Supt. Engineer Sut Engnee

Morena Bhinde

Qua I 6ty Dsl

|Irrigation Diviston Irrigation D,v5isil Drainage.D,v1s1on Irrigation Division Drainage. Division Irgto vsin Irrigation D v,sio Sahalgarh Pora Sabalgarh Ambah (AIBD) Sheopur ,ei SheoPL:r .~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-TC_

World Bank -- 23152 -64-

ANNEX 2 Page 1

INDIA

CHAMBAL (MADHYA PRADESH) IRRIGATION II PROJECT

Economic Analysis

Prices and Conversion Factors

1. General. The economic prices of major traded agricultural outputs were derived from the IBRD projected 1990 world market prices expressed in 1980/81 currency value with appropriate adjustments for freight, handling and processing. The projected economic prices for non-traded foodgrains are derived by applying a foodgrain conversion factor (FCF) to the financial price (para 4). Non-traded goods and services were brought to a common basis with the traded ones through the use of conversion factors (explained in the following paras). A standard exchange rate of US$1 to Rs 8.00 was used to convert prices expressed in US dollars to local currency values 1/

2. Standard Conversion Factor (SCF). In order to evaluate the project's net benefits to India, its costs and benefits must be converted to world market price basis. However, many of the costs are for items that are not traded on the world market. Tariffs and trade restrictions introduce a distortion in the price relationship between traded goods--valued at world markets--and non-traded goods--valued at local prices. In order to make them comparable, a SCF is applied to the financial price of non-traded goods. In the absence of trade restrictions, the SCF can be approximately calculated using the formula:

SCF = X + S + M + T x m

where X = export value (f.o.b.); M = import value (c.i.f.); D = subsidies on exports; T = taxes and duties on imports. m

1/ This was the estimated exchange rate at "Green Cover" time (November 1981). Due to GOMP budgetary constraints, negotiations were delayed and took place only in June 1982. By that time the estimated exchange rate changed to US$1 = Rs 9. The revised exchange rate was used for estimating the project cost in US dollars and estimating the amount of IDA credit. However, in order to avoid excessive calculation, the "old" exchange rate of US$1.0 = Rs 8.0 was used in the economic analysis. -65-

ANNEX 2 Page 2

For the period since 1970, this calculationgives a SCF of 0.86. However, since this estimate does not take into considerationquantitative restrictions on trade, it provides only an upper limit for the SCF. The Indian Planning Commission recommendsfor the evaluation of industrialprojects, the use of conversionfactors for foreign exchange and for untraded goods that implicitlygive a SCF of about 0.75. Because of the approximatenature of this estimate, a SCF of 0.8 has been used in the economic analysis. Specific conversionfactors were calculatedfor constructioncosts and non- traded foodgrains (see below).

3. ConstructionConversion Factor (CCF). The CCF was estimatedat 0.80 based on the relative share in constructionworks of traded, non-traded and unskilled labor.

4. FoodgrainsConversion Factor (FCF). The economic prices for traded goods such as rice, wheat, cotton, groundnuts,and sugarcanewere based on their border prices at the standard exchange rate. The domestic cost components (i.e., local transportand marketing charges) were adjusted by the SCF of 0.80. The economic prices for non-tradedfoodgrains (maize and pulses were assumed to be non-traded)were derived by applying the FCF to their projected financial prices. The FCF was estimatedusing the followingformula:

FCF = (Q rice x PE rice) + (Q wheat x PE wheat) 1215

(Q rice x PF rice) + (Q wheat x PF wheat) - where: Q: Madhya Pradesh Production PE: Economic Price PF: Financial Price The projected financial prices for various crops are based on the estimated historicalprice trends 1/ in Madhya Pradesh.

5. Prices of AgriculturalInputs. Fertilizershave been valued at the projectedworld market price. The financial prices of pesticides and insecti- cides (traded commodities)have been converted to economic prices using a conversion factor of 0.95. The economic prices of seed and miscellaneouscharges have been assumed to approximatethe financial prices. The economic price of a bullock day was derivedfrom the rental price for one pair with an operator per day, adjusted by the SCF. A summary of the economic prices is presented in Annex 1, Table T-16.

6. AgriculturalWages. Economic wage rates were derived from the financial ones assuming that for the slack and peak period, the financial wage is a good approximationfor the shadow wage (reservationwage), and that only during the intermediateseason the financial wage overstates the opportunitycost of labor by some 40%. The weighted average shadow wage rates derived were adjusted by the SCE (0.8), resulting in economic wages of Rs 2.2 and Rs 3.0 for the rainfed and irrigatedareas, respectively. When compared to financial wage rates, this is equivalent to an unskilled labor conversionfactor of about 0.67.

1/ See Madhya Pradesh - AgriculturalPrices and Marketing, prepared by FAO/WorldBank CooperativeProgram, Rome, April 1980. -66-

ANNEX 2 Page 3

Benefits and Costs

7. Crop Budgets and Cropping Patterns. Assessment of future yields and cropping patterns, "with" as well as "without" project, was based on (i) farm surveys in the project areas; (ii) yield statistics; and (iii) direct in- formation from the field. Project yields representan estimate of the average yield which can be expected in an average year, assuming satisfactory supportingservices, especially extension.

8. Phase I and Phase II Benefits. Care has been taken to exclude from the economic analysis benefits related to works undertaken under Phase I. Thus, no incremental benefits were assumed to accrue from the area irrigated as a result of Phase I works.

9. The cost streams include the incremental investment and O&M costs. Sunk cost were accounted for through the inclusion of the associated irrigation benefits in the "without project" situation. The economic cost of electricity (for AT) was derived from a recent Bank study of the marginal cost of electricity in MP. 1/ According to this study the long run marginal economic cost of electricity at the 33 Kv line would be Rs 0.08 per 1 kWh at off-peak hours (16'' to 20'') and Rs 0.80 at peak hours. The provision of regulatable storage will enable pumping entirely during the off-peak hours.

10. Build-up Rates. The build-up rates of net benefits from present levels to full development was assumed to be as follows:

Years After Completion of Construction A. AIBD 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

(a) Presently irrigated 6 20 41 67 85 95 100 (b) Presently rainfed 5 14 32 52 70 84 93 98 100

B. Canal Improvement Area

(a) Presently rainfed 8 22 39 59 74 86 94 97 99 100

Economics of Lining in AIBD

11. The main benefits associated with lining were assumed to be derived from a reduction in seepage losses. Lining is expected also to facilitate operation and maintenance of the water distribution system and results in a more reliable water supply but these latter benefits could not be adequately quantified and were excluded from the analysis.

12. It is estimated that if the part of the system consisting of channels carrying 6 cfs or less to the 8 ha outlet would be unlined, incremental seepage

1/ "Estimation of Electricity Tariff Based on Long Run Marginal Cost" by the Energy and Water Supply Division, ASP. -67- ANNEX 2 Page 4

losses, over those expected in a lined system would Imouy in the rabi season (when water i7 a constraint) to about 2,450 m /ha- . It is assumed here that about 657%- of the seepage losses can be recovered through pumping. The remaining quantity will be absorbed into the top layers of the soils in areas close to the canal and be lost through evaporation, non-productive evapotranspiration and through lateral groundwater flow to areas where it is not usable. Under Chambal conditions the recoverable seepage losses could be used for irrigation through the network of AT. Considering the seepage losses during recycling (assumSd to be 20%) the 5otal amount of irrecoverable losses is estimated at 984 m /ha while 1,464 m would be deli- vired at the 8 ha outlet. For each 1 m reaching th5 8 ha outlet about 1.25 m have to be pumped at an economic cost of Rs3 .12/m . The value of water 3 at the 8 ha outlet was a umed to be Rs 0.35/m in year 1 rising to Rs 0.58/m in year 5 and therafter.-

13. In the model used, lining benefits accrue from (i) preventing loss of production due to irrecoverable seepage losses; and (ii) saving of pumping costs. Investment costs in lining were estimated at Rs 2,000/ha. The dif- ference in maintenance of lined and unlined system was assumed to be small and was therefore ignored. Based on these assumptions the ERR of lining was estimated at 33%.

Economic Rate of Return (ERR)

14. For economic analysis purposes the project was divided into parts (models): (i) the AIBD area; and (ii) the remaining command area (canal improvement areas). For each area the cropping pattern, yields and inputs requirements were calculated without and with (at full development) the project. Discounting costs and benefit streams over 30 years the estimated ERR would be 34% for the AIBD area, 35% for the area benefiting from canal improvement and drainage works and 35% for the project as a whole (weighted average).

15. Several tests were performed to evaluate the sensitivity of the assumptions made in the economic analysis (see para 7.06, Main Report). Additionally, in the case of AIBD, the operational characteristics of AT were tested and only large and unlikely deviations from appraisal estimates would significantly effect the ERR.

,~~~~~~~~~~~~ 1/ Seepage losses wer2 assumed to be 3 cfs/M ft in a lined system and 20-25 cfs/M ft in an unlined system.

2/ The Central Groundwater Board of GOI has estimated that irrecoverable canal seepage losses range from 33% to 50%.

3/ The value of water was derived by dividing the incremental irrigation benefits by the amount of water used for irrigation. -68-

ANNEX 2 Page 5

16. Assumptionsfor Cost and Rent Recovery. The main assumptionsare:

(i) an increase of 50% in irrigation chargeswill take place by Year 1 and simultaneously,GOMP will equate canal and lift irrigationcharges;

(ii) after the above increase, the irrigationcharges will remain unchanged in real terms until Year 10 in AIBD; in the canal improvementareas the irrigation chargeswill remain unchanged throughout the project period; and

(iii) from year 10 on, water rates in AIBD will graduallybe raised to reach about 30% of irrigation rent in Year 20. INDIA

CHAMBAL (MADHYA PRADESH) IRRIGATION II PROJECT

Economics of Lining in AIBD - 1 Ha Model

Capital Cost-I3/ Net Incremental Periods of Lining Benefits I -/ Benefits II / Benefits ------Rs------

1 2,000.00 0.00 0.00 -2,000.00 2 0.00 219.48 347.07 566.55 3 0.00 219.48 359.69 579.17 4 0.00 219.48 391.24 610.72 5 0.00 219.48 441.73 661.21 6 0.00 219.4.8 542.69 762.17 7 0.00 219.48 561.63 781.11 _0 8-30 0.00 219.48 574.25 793.73

1/ Economic cost of lining channels with 6 cfs or less capacity. 2/ Benefits resulting from reduced pumping. The cost of pumping is estimated at Rs 0.12/m in economic prices. 3/ Benefits resulting from reJuced seepage losses. The marginal value of water at the 8 ha outlet was estimated at Rs .35/m3 in year 1 rising to Rs 0.58/m at full development.

NOTE: It is estimated that if the part of the system consisting of channels carrying 6 cfs or less to the 8 ha outlet would be unlined, incremental seepage losses, over those expected in a lined system would amount in the rabi season (when water is a constraint) to about 2,450 m3/ha. It is assumed that about 65% (1,593 m 3/ha) of the seepage losses can be recovered through pumping. The recoverable seepage losses would be used for irrigation through the network of AT. The recycling of irrigation water for I ha model could be seen from the following flow chart-

3 1,593 m3 * 318 m seeped--- 207 mi recovered- 40 m3 seeped- - 26 m3 recovered -+5 m3 seeped -) 3 m3 recovered >1 mi lost >

\13 ~~\A \4 3~{ 3 4 3 A 3 1,275 m at plant 111 m lost 167 m at plant 4 m lost 21 m at plant 2 m lost 2 m at plant D:3

Considering the seepage losses during recycling (assumed to be 20%) the total amount of irrecoverable losses is estimated at 986 m3 /ha while 1,465 m3 would be delivered at the 8 ha outlet. For each 1 m3 reaching the 8 ha outlet about 1.25 m3 have to be pumped at an economic cost of Rs .12/m3. -70-

ANNEX 3

INDIA

CHAMBAL (MADHYA PRADESH) IRRIGATION II PROJECT

Related Documents Available in the Project File

1. Economics of Crop Production and Cropping Pattern in Chambal, Project Report No. 3, CADA Chambal Project, November 13, 1980.

2. Bench March Socio-EconomicSurvey of Chambal Command Area, Project Report No. 2, CADA Chambal Project, August 1, 1980.

3. Mid-Term Appraisal Report of Ayacut Works, Morena and Bhind Districts, MP IrrigationDepartment,.September 1978.

4. AfforestationProgrammes in Command Area DevelopmentProject, S.B. Bapat, CADA Chambal Project.

5. Modernisationof Field Channels in Chambal Command, CADA Chambal Project, February 1979.

6. Lower Pagar Dam - Proforma Report and C.W.P.C. Questionnaire, MP IrrigationDepartment, February 1979.

7. Soil and GeomorphologicalStudies of Areas under Chambal Command in Morena and .BhindDistricts, Indan Photo-Interpretation Institute - National Remote Sensing Agency, November 1980.

8. Chambal Betwa Basin Bhopal - Drainage Master Plan of Chambal Command in Bhind District,MP IrrigationDepartment, November 1980.

9. The Chambal Project, Phase II Chambal Command Area Development Authority, May 1982. 74' 75 - '6' 77' j 80~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~5 INDIA Hre

CHAMBAL (MADHYA PRADESHr) '~ IRRIGATIOND PROJECT

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