REBOOTING THE WORLD SIX MONTHS OF COVID-19

SHOBA SURI EDITOR © 2020 Observer Research Foundation All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of ORF.

Attribution: Shoba Suri, Ed., Rebooting the World: Six Months of COVID-19, September 2020, Observer Research Foundation.

Cover image: © Getty

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With special thanks to Oommen C Kurian, Kriti Kapur and Laetitia Bruce Warjri for their invaluable time and inputs. CONTENTS

Introduction 4

Background 7

1. Brazil and COVID-19: A Cautionary Tale 13 Dawisson Belém Lopes

2. After Six Months of COVID-19, Brazil’s Government is Adrift by Political Choice 18 Fernando Brancoli

3. The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same 23 Shahid Jameel

4. No More : Is it Time for Russia to Celebrate? 30 Viktoriia Ivanchenko

5. Peru Remains in Lockdown, But Promise of Vaccine Brings Hope 35 Clarissa Rios Rojas

6. COVID-19: Understanding the Latin American Scenario 39 Silvana Lopez

7. COVID-19: Lessons from the ‘Spanish Lifestyle’ Terminator 42 Miguel Otero-Iglesias and Ignacio Molina

8. A Very British Disaster (and Collective Denial) 52 Sridhar Venkatapuram

9. Public Policy Lessons from Pakistan’s Experience with COVID-19 57 Saba Shahid

10. Defying the Odds: Pakistan’s Coronavirus Story 62 Amina Bajwa

11. In Midstream: and the Quest to Adjust to a New Normal 67 Nicolas Bauquet

12. Rebooting Multilateralism? Lessons Still to be Learnt 71 Amrita Narlikar

About the Editor and Authors 76 Introduction

Shoba Suri

andemics are not merely a health concern, they deeply impact economies and communities as well. The COVID-19 has exposed the fragility of healthcare systems, the inadequacy of social protections frameworks and the vulnerability of global supplyP chains. Since the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed in December 2019 in China’s Wuhan—with the Wuhan wet market the suspected source— more than 200 countries1 and regions have been affected.

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic on 11 March 2020, and named the that caused it as the ‘Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2’ or SARS-CoV-2. The virus is transmitted by inhaling droplets through close contact with infected persons. Symptoms for COVID-19 can range from mild (like a common cold) to those indicative of acute respiratory illness,2 and include fever, cough, sore throat, breathlessness and fatigue. The elderly and persons with co-morbidities, such as diabetes, hypertension and non-communicable , have been found to be the most at risk.

The COVID-19 pandemic has cost lives and livelihoods across the globe. According to the World Trade Organization and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,3 COVID-19 is a bigger threat to the global economy than the 2008 financial crisis was. The imposition of lockdowns to curb the spread of the virus has resulted in the slowdown of the global economy, which has directly affected the GDPs of countries, particularly emerging economies. Major industries and businesses were disrupted with only providing access to essential and telehealth services, atbeen forefront the of fight the againstCOVID-19, not has provided solutions. Technological tools have Intrying circumstances, such difficult technology and for over 50percent of cases. all COVID-19, with US,India the and Brazil accounting more than 28million people have by infected been rates continue to As rise. of 10September, initiatedbeen inmany countries, evenas global ‘unlocks’ reopening (gradual of economy) the have As we arrive at six-month the mark of pandemic, the expenditure to combat COVID-19. due productivity to decreased and increased healthcare threat of inflation high rates remote and spaces.Many digital countries now facethe educational institutes and workplaces transitioned to by pandemic. the Tourism came to astandstill, and to agrinding halt. No leftuntouched has sector been private transport). Consequently, entire economies came railways, and buses, trucks other forms of public and suspensionthe of (flights, transportation services 4 and inunemployment arise 5 the crisis. crisis. the and solutions the that have found been to mitigate cross-learnings on management the of pandemic the essayspandemic, highlight the these will back at last the sixmonths of COVID-19 the apps distancing and measures. social As we look tools and strategies, including contact tracing to adapt to “new the normal” using available all governments, and businesses societies have tried worst hit by pandemic. the They showcase how series Thisbrings together essaysfrom countries to lives and livelihoods. reopening economies stalled to prevent damage further throughvirus lockdown measures or kickstarting and having limiting between to spread the choose of the governments across world the of dilemma facethe has warned of of pandemic likelihood the the worsening, racing to findviable a vaccine forCOVID-19. As WHO with countries’ entire systems medical and researchers hastechnology accelerated innovations inhealthcare, distanced. The enhanced socially being while role of but helping also and keep friends families connected

5 INTRODUCTION 6 INTRODUCTION countries-where-coronavirus-has-spread/ 1 Endnotes 5 4 3 2 economic-impact-covid-19-after-record-unemployment-countries-around-world-begin-reopen around world the to reopen begin industries,” Centre for Global Development, covid-19-is-distorting-inflation-numbers-around-the-world/ development-finance-9de00b3b/ June 24,2020,http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/the-impact-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-crisis-on- Tanu Sighal, “A of Coronavirus Review (COVID-19),” -2019 Ind JPediatr 87(2020):281-86. “Countries where has Covid-19 spread,” Worldometer, September 7,2020,https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ David Evans and Amina Mendez Acosta,Economic “The impact of OVID-19: Afterrecord unemployment, countries Dan Kopf, “Covid-19 is distorting inflation numbers aroundthe world,” Quartz impact the coronavirusof “The (COVID-19) crisis on development finance,” OECD Responce to Policy COVID-19, June 5,2020,https://www.cgdev.org/blog/ , June 17,2020,https://qz.com/1869519/ Background

t the beginning of September, the global tally of COVID-19 cases stood at 25 million, while the death toll crossed 860,000. Less than a month into the pandemic,1 the US became the most infected country in the world; as of 10 September, it has Areported more than 6.5 million cases and 195,239 deaths. India and Brazil follow, with 4.4 million and 75,091 deaths, and 4.1 million cases and 128,653 deaths, respectively. Brazil has a high recovery rate of 79 percent as compared to the US’s 56 percent. Russia, the fourth most infected country, has seen a gradual decrease in the number of cases.

The Latin American region is one of the worst affected in the world.2 Apart from Brazil, Mexico—with 647,507 cases and 69,095 deaths, at the time of publishing—has also seen a rapid spread of COVID-19 . Peru has reported 702,776 cases and over 30,000 deaths, and Chile has had 427,027 cases and over 11,000 deaths. However, the recovery rate of 93 percent brings some hope.

COVID-19 MOST INFECTED COUNTRIES

USA SPAIN FRANCE RUSSIA Total Confirmed Total Recovery Total Confirmed Total Recovery Total Confirmed Total Recovery Total Confirmed Total Recovery Cases Deaths Rate Cases Deaths Rate Cases Deaths Rate Cases Deaths Rate 65,49,475 1,95,239 59% 5,43,379 29,628 NA 3,44,101 30,794 26% 10,41,007 18,135 82%

MEXICO UK Total Confirmed Total Recovery Total Confirmed Total Recovery Total Confirmed Total Recovery Cases Deaths Rate Cases Deaths Rate Cases Deaths Rate 6,47,507 69,095 70% 3,55,219 41,594 NA 2,56,349 9,410 90%

PERU ARGENTINA PAKISTAN Total Confirmed Total Recovery Total Confirmed Total Recovery Total Confirmed Total Recovery Cases Deaths Rate Cases Deaths Rate Cases Deaths Rate 7,02,776 30,236 76% 5,12,293 10,658 75% 2,99,855 6,365 96%

COLOMBIA CHILE BRAZIL INDIA Total Confirmed Total Recovery Total Confirmed Total Recovery Total Confirmed Total Recovery Total Confirmed Total Recovery Cases Deaths Rate Cases Deaths Rate Cases Deaths Rate Cases Deaths Rate 6,86,856 22,053 80% 4,27,027 11,702 94% 41,99,332 1,28,653 82% 44,65,863 75,091 78%

rate, alarming trend of alow number of but cases death ahigh million population. Currently, France demonstrates an to having number ahigher of COVID-19 deaths per compared ratio to global the of 5percent, inaddition Figure 1. Covid-19 cases and Lag-case fatalityFigure and cases 1.Covid-19 ratio Lag-case from worst affected countries on data. removes effect the between lagof reporting and death countries. The L-CFR is a measure fatalitycase of that andfrom total the confirmedcases the worst affected Figure 1 shows fatality ratioLag-case the (L-CFR) deaths despite second-most the being populated and contributed relatively COVID-19 less to related global Italy, UK, Germany the and Spain. India reported itsseven-day firstwithin a case window of on reportedbased data. India, and China Brazil, have had low mortality rates, it difficult to follow distancingphysical norms,as such countries population with high densities, make which Total Confirmed Covid-19 Cases 10,00,000 20,00,000 30,00,000 40,00,000 50,00,000 60,00,000 70,00,000 4 followed by Mexico 3 The UK and France have high L-CFRs as 0 26% France

Mexico 13% 5 and UK. the

UK 12% TotalCases Confirmed 7 However, India has Spain 5% 6 Surprisingly, 5% Peru 5% USA 4% Germany and the cases per million areand per cases the lowest the but deaths the case—testing remains amongst highestworld the in million population rates. The UK exhibitspeculiar a million population per case high and death high per rates of testing as compared to other countries, it has million population. Although higher US has the seen most the performed number of COVID-19 tests per Among most the affected countries, Russia has of and cases scale deathsthe million population. per extentthe of testing million population per relative to variation numbers inthe tested. being Figure 2shows considerably over past the few weeks, there is a wide of is like aslow-buring virus the coil, second-most affected badly country. In the India, spread to test as much as possible. importancethe of testing, with key message the being In March, World the Health Organization indicated other badly-hit countries, USand the Brazil. 4% Colombia 4% Lag - Case Fatality -Case Lag Rate Brazil 3% Chile 3% Argentina 9 While testing has increased 2% Pakistan 8 2% as compared to the India 2% Russia 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Lag-Case Fatality Ratio 9 BACKGROUND 10 BACKGROUND Figure 2.Deaths and testing million population per from worst affected countries on. days, reducing spread the of infections and deaths early Germany have able been to test agressively initial inthe 10 September). other Onthe hand, some countries like million population and reported 75,091 deaths (as of countries—the has country conducted 37,079 tests per deaths million population, per incomparison to other India,rise. meanwhile, low has testing very rates and testing remains low and death the toll continues to Peru and Colombia, but caseloads, have high observed some of developing the economies, such as Brazil, Chile, million areper Figure shows alarmingly high. 2also that Deaths per 1 million population 1000 200 400 600 800 0 0 Pakistan Mexico Argentina India 50,000 Colombia Brazil 1,00,000 1,50,0002,00,0002,50,0003,00,000 The size the of bubble million per population denotesConfirmed cases the Tests 1million population per France Peru better normal. of hour, the but it must done be inaway that creates a economies and adapting to ‘new the normal’ is need the on how with pandemic. the to best Restarting deal to time the come together and have consensus aglobal technologies and platforms are developed. being Now is Despite challenges, the range awide of vaccine countries are to stay struggling of ahead pandemic. the As world the confronts unprecedented this crisis, Chile Germany Spain UK Russia USA mexico/#33d4d50618e7 https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanielparishflannery/2020/09/03/why-are-so-many-people-dying-of-covid-19-in- 12, 2020,https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/how-india-fared-in-containing-covid-deaths-analysis/1955598/ and-deaths-today September 7,2020,https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/07/coronavirus-uk-map-confirmed-covid-cases- interactive/2020/world//france-coronavirus-cases.html commentaries/detail/estimating-mortality-from-covid-19 .com/news/world-latin-america-52711458 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/health/usa-coronavirus-cases.html 1 Endnotes covid-19---16-march-2020 16, 2020,https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on- 9 india-53674857 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 KSrinath and Reddy Surabhi Pandey, “How India fared incontaining deaths-Analysis,” Covid Financial Express May , Clarke, Sean Anna Leach, Ashley Kirk, “Coronavirus UKmap:Covid confirmedcases and deaths today,” Guardian, The “France coronavirus map and count,” case New York Times World Health Organization, “Estimating mortality from Covid-19,” August 4,2020,https://www.who.int/news-room/ Jake Horton, “Coronavirus: What are numbers the out of America?,” Latin News BBC , August 27,2020,https://www. Donal GMcNeil Jr, “The U.S. theNow Leads WorldConfirmed Coronavirus in Cases,” NewYork Times World Health Organization, “WHO Director-General’s opening remarks at briefing media the COVID-19,”on March Biswas, Soutik “A patchwork pandemic,” Nathaneil Parish Flannery, “Why Are Many So People In OfCovid-19 Dying Mexico?,” Forbes BBC NewsBBC , August 6, 2020, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia- , September 7,2020,https://www.nytimes.com/ , September 3, 2020, , September 3,2020, , March 26, 11 BACKGROUND Views from Around the World 1 Brazil and COVID-19: A Cautionary Tale

Dawisson Belém Lopes

ix months after the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared COVID-19 a global pandemic, it is time to come to terms with the tragic fate of South America’s largest nation. Things would have gone far better for Brazil had some erroneous decisions not Sbeen made. The over 130,000 lost lives and four million infections were not inevitable, and the country did not have to put into practice an incredibly failed approach to deal with the novel coronavirus.

First, Brazil had a three-week headstart to for and cope with a worst-case scenario. As the situation began to spiral out of control in Europe in February, Brazil had the opportunity to learn from those mistakes and enact public policy intervention at the central level. But this did not happen. There was time, but no political will whatsoever. Shockingly, President Jair Bolsonaro’s health ministry had no contingency plan to deal with - like events even when the crisis sprung up.1

Second, airports across the country should have been shut as early as March when the emergency was worsening elsewhere. International flights to and from Brazil are concentrated in two cities—São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro—making it possible to seal Latin America’s air hubs and introduce a China-inspired ‘cordon sanitaire’ strategy. But, again, there was not much governmental interest in blocking this menace.2 As a consequence, the first batch of COVID-19 cases were mostly imported from Italy, quickly spreading throughout Brazil.3 14 BRAZIL AND COVID-19: A CAUTIONARY TALE financial relief programmesthis crisis. to survive million citizens are to on depend believed governmental people are unemployed, as of July) and more than 100 Brazil has reached (more high an all-time than 12million country. pandemic and restore international confidence the in authorities to properly and society civil fightthe have severely impaired ability the of Brazilian public misconceptions about epidemiological the situation economic underperformance, and Bolsonaro’s gross coordination, serious shortcomings of law, rule inthe and state governors). Alack of leadership and political andand judiciary) sub-national the authorities (mayors presidency by two other branches federal legislative (the controlwin of country, the inafierce dispute against the ongoing process polarisation to of and social struggles poses serious challenges toposes its proper functioning. SUS for underfunded has manybeen years now, which insurance. While it should areason be for national pride, 150 million citizens cannot who rely on private health mostthe inhospitable places and assisting more than workers and is territorially widespread, reaching even SUSearth. mobilises around three million health with widest the universal coverage system health on constitution 1988federal in the to provide population the Sistema Único Saúde de pressure on its public apparatuses health due to the Third, to wasresist expected theBrazil overwhelming a trajectory thata trajectory culminated with left-wing President and economicwith social unrest since year the 2013, emerging nations of 21st the century, Brazil was faced just afew years back. Considered one of sparkling the studying, given country’s the especially promising route Brazil’s economic mismanagement worth is acase thegroundworkLaying and return to levels the of early the 2010s, depression that Brazilian the led economy to shrink by two pre-existing ‘co-morbidities’—an economic This despairing publicscenario was health aggravated in the aftermathin the pandemic.the of Venezuela is bound to deliver worse economic results most encouraging. South American Ofall nations, only percent year, this and of pace the recovery is not the Brazilian economy may contract by 6percent to 10 deaths andbehind confirmedcases, the only US. The As of late August, it had second the highest cumulative hardBrazil has been hit by COVID-19 the pandemic. (SUS), amechanism introduced 5 Unemployment in 7 and an an and 6 4

amid Bolsonaro’s negligence and denialism. owntheir strategies to fightCOVID-19the pandemic in 2020,were authorised by Supreme the to craft Court constitutional autonomy for administrative matters and, ‘mission impossible’, given that enjoy all some degree of over 5,500 municipalities, 27 statesfederal and Union the makes which taskdesign, of the coordinating policies has auniqueBrazil also three-level federative institutional option for two the warring sides. main electoral constituencies. Reconciliation is not an up supporting Bolsonaro’s as his and candidacy serving forces and anti-establishment movements that ended and other the presidency; the comprising right-wing put forth to keep leftist the Workers’ Party awayfrom were atravesty of a‘judicial-congressional coup d’état’ impeachmentthat Rousseff’s process and Lula’sjailing strands of opinion—one made up believed of who those events 2017. These havethe into country divided two guilty on charges of corruption and imprisoned in July planned for to run presidency the in2018,was found Silva, popularda highly the former president had who polarisation at before alevel never seen inBrazil. Lula year presidential aprocess term, triggered of social barely one year after her reelection forsecond a four- initiated in2013had not ousting, yet Rousseff’s healed. From viewpoint, apolitical wounds the of along battle reforms were introduced. Brazilianthe Congress, no other consistent structural pensiona timid system reform, chiefly conducted by year. Economic growth was baffling and, apart from littlecrisis. But was achieved inBolsonaro’s very first assumed only the to be way out of monumental this Pension system, administrative and reforms tax were giving leeway to his ‘Chicago boys’ to job. dotheir deliverwill amajor overhaul of Brazilian the economy, dictatorChilean Augusto Pinochet’s economic team— private investor had who previously of apart been economy minister Paulo Guedes—an and academic Bolsonaro came to power under promise the that his of election the right-wing populist Bolsonaro in2018. growth. Unemployment soared and paved way the for inflationary control, but failed to reactivateeconomic into a effect plan of action to promote fiscal austerity and deputy Michel Temer took over as president and put and indicators monetary deteriorated, soon Rousseff’s removal Rousseff’s fromDilma office in2016.fiscal As could have far more been profound. not for Supreme the Brazil’s ruling, Court catastrophe 8 If it were lost almost 10percent of his approval. surge popularity intheir ratings, Brazilian the president Bolsonaro. While many world leaders have witnessed a Curiously, there was no ‘rally around flag’ the cookie for WHO not does endorse move. medical the chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine, eventhough the controversial protocol to treat COVID-19 patients with condition has not kept Pazuello from embracing a minister health full-fledged yet. Butthis provisional Pazzuelo came to officedoes and Brazil not a have personnel. It three months has been since Eduardo replacing many staff technical memberswith military took sciences, over health in the as an interim minister, An army general and parachutist, had who no training science-backed prescriptions distancing. such as social were insisted they dismissed,because allegedly on ministers with backgrounds sciences medical inthe pandemic, the During two of Bolsonaro’s health worthless. single person inBrazil or sooner later, resisting so it is mantra—thenew coronavirus contaminate will every were he adopted disease, the and infected a survived BolsonaroAfter himself someand of his ministers he was not a gravedigger and not one the to blame. responded with adisconcerting “so what?,” adding that governmental response was demanded, being Bolsonaro it a“little flu”. the deathAs toll rose and an effective conspiracy, downplayed then its importance by dubbing Bolsonaro first attributedpandemicthe to a media It was not any differentwiththe advent COVID-19.of moniker and keeps mimicking American the president. Bolsonaro proudly‘Trump fitsthe the of Tropics’ Bolsonaro’s follies and businesspersons to detriment the of common the as oneof was seen crises that the favoured businesses 9

11 His handling 10

(as of July 2020). Brazilian citizens among different all types of diseases on being disease, average main the cause of death for onlythe where country COVID-19 like looks achronic definitely the makes country one kind.of a It is probably economic, politico-institutional and foreign affairs— Brazil’s inall, All four-pronged crisis—sanitary, always bragged about practicing universalist diplomacy. isolation of Brazil comes for as asurprise anation that of COVID-19 vaccines were discussed. being governance economy of global the and development the kept from joining important forums where future the but brought opprobrium instead—Brazil has been affairsto global granted never anytangible rewards, indirect, reference to China. realthe problem world in the today—in a hostile, albeit ofvirus communism,” not novel the coronavirus, was country’s top diplomat, going as far as to affirm that “the Araújo more has been of agitator an ideological than the to power in January 2019, his foreign minister Ernesto anti-globalist foreign policy. Since Bolsonaro’s coming There behighlighted—Brazil’sis to one final aspect the same. the months ago, situation the today remains pretty much threshold of over 1,000 casualties a day almost four peculiar—having very is reached also emblematic the in Bolsonaro.in chaos. Suchsocial discourse has always found support leading to levels higher of unemployment, hunger and engines ofwould true the massive be destruction, bankruptcies rather than direct exposure to virus the economythe at any cost, under claim the that company actively engaged in lobbying and propaganda to reopen people and public concerns. health Business unions have committed to unreasonable their choices. complete failure, yet Bolsonaro and his acolytes seem 16 The Brazilian responseCOVID-19 to a is 12

15 Brazil’s COVID-19 infection curve 13 His eccentric approach 14 This This 15 BRAZIL AND COVID-19: A CAUTIONARY TALE 16 BRAZIL AND COVID-19: A CAUTIONARY TALE que-em-90-dos-paises,70003334493 June 16,2020,https://economia.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,retomada-do-brasil-no-pos-covid-deve-ser-mais-lenta- sistema-universal-de-saude.htm noticias.uol.com.br/comprova/ultimas-noticias/2019/10/17/com-mais-de-200mi-habitantes-brasil-e-unico-com- vieram-da-italia/32826/ March 26, 2020, https://agencia.fapesp.br/548-dos-casos-importados-de-covid-19-para-o-brasil-ate-5-de-marco- https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.9446 “Severe sanitarian airport control could slow down spreading the of COVID-19 pandemic inBrazil,” PeerJ, June 25,2002 Carlos Junior Alcantara, Marta Giovanetti, Wendel Coura-Vital, Wilson Geraldo Fernandes, Vasco Ariston C.Azevedo, 1 Endnotes thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31095-3/fulltext#articleInformation 9 municipios-para-tomar-medidas-contra-covid-19-15042020 contra Covid-19,” Jota, 8 aponta-ibge.htm economia.uol.com.br/noticias/redacao/2020/05/29/pib-encolhe-e-economia-brasileira-volta-ao-patamar-de-2012- 7 auxilio-emergencial https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/economia/noticia/2020-06/em-dois-meses-107-milhoes-de-brasileiros-pediram- 6 5 4 3 2 novo-coronavirus.htm https://noticias.uol.com.br/colunas/rubens-valente/2020/05/02/brasil-nao-tinha-um-plano-de-contingencia-para-um- Douglas Gavras, Douglas “Retomada doBrasil no mais pós-covid deve ser lenta que em90%dospaíses,” OEstado de S.Paulo, “Brasil dehabitantes éúnicopaís acima de200milhões com saúde universal,” UOL Portal Elton Alisson, importados para “54,8% de dos Covid-19 casos o Brasil até 5demarço vieram Itália,” da Pontes Servio Ribeiro, Castro Alcides eSilva ,Wesley Dáttilo, Alexandre Reis, Aristoteles Barbosa Góes-Neto, Luiz Rubens Valente, “Brasil um Plano não tinha de Contingência para um novo coronavírus,” “COVID-19 inBrazil: ‘So what?’,” TheLancet (Editorial), Volume 395,Issue 10235,p. 1461,May 9,2020,https://www. Ana Pompeu and Luiz Orlando Carneiro, “STF reafirma competência e deestados municípiospara tomar medidas “PIB encolhe eeconomia brasileira volta aopatamar de2012,aponta IBGE,” Portal UOL, May 29,2020,https:// Wellton Máximo, auxílio pediram “Em emergencial,” depessoas dois 107milhões meses, Agência Brasil, June 3,2020, April 15,2020,https://www.jota.info/stf/do-supremo/stf-reafirma-competencia-de-estados-e- , October 17,2019,https://, October Portal UOL Portal Agência Fapesp, , May 2, 2020, 13 12 11 10 16 15 14 24h,70003308109 May 19,2020,https://saude.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,pela-1-vez-brasil-ultrapassa-mais-de-mil-mortes-em- poder360.com.br/coronavirus/covid-19-foi-principal-causa-de-morte-no-brasil-em-julho-nos-eua-foi-a-3a/ com.br/colunas/jamil-chade/2020/07/06/bolsonaro-nao-foi-convidado-para-a-principal-cupula-da-oms.htm chegou-o-comunav%C3%ADrus praca-dos-tres-poderes-a-pe-e-vai-ao-stf-acompanhado-de-ministros.ghtml restritivas,”de medidas Portal G1,May 7,2020,https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2020/05/07/bolsonaro-atravessa- volta-a-insistir-no-uso-da-cloroquina-p.shtml https://www.em.com.br/app/noticia/nacional/2020/08/06/interna_nacional,1173846/ao-lado-de-pazuello-bolsonaro- economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/05/09/covid-19-has-given-most-world-leaders-a-temporary-rise-in-popularity Sandy Oliveira, “Pela 1ªvez, Brasil ultrapassa mais mortes demil novo pelo coronavírus em24h,” OEstado de S.Paulo, “Covid-19 foi principal causa demorte no Brasil emjulho; nos EUA, foi a3ª,” Poder 360,August 11,2020,https://www. Jamil Chade, “Brasil não foi convidado para aprincipal cúpula OMS,” da UOL Portal Ernesto Araujo, “Chegou oComunavírus,” 17 Metapolítica Guilherme Mazui and Marcio Falcão, “Bolsonaro vai com a pé ministros e empresários ao STF eapela por redução “Covid-19 has given most world inpopularity,” leaders atemporary rise Economist The “Ao dePazuello, lado Bolsonaro volta ainsistir cloroquina da no uso para COVID,” Estado de Minas, August 6,2020, , April 22,2020,https://www.metapoliticabrasil.com/post/ , July 6,2020,https://noticias.uol. , May 9,2020,https://www. 17 BRAZIL AND COVID-19: A CAUTIONARY TALE 2 After Six Months of COVID-19, Brazil’s Government is Adrift by Political Choice

Fernando Brancoli

e will have a maximum of 800 fatalities, nothing will change in the country, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro said of COVID-19 in March 2020.1 Afew days earlier, the World Health Organization (WHO)“W had declared the a pandemic. Six months on, not only have Bolsonaro’s predictions proved to be completely incorrect—the country’s death toll has exceeded 110,000 by the end of August—but several internal and foreign policy structures changed over this period.

According to the WHO, Brazil today is one of the global epicenters of the pandemic.2 Despite having one of the lowest testing rates in the world, more than three million Brazilians have been infected with the virus. Brazil’s catastrophic COVID-19 numbers have complex explanations. The country’s size—it is the largest country in South America—already indicates that the virus has a large area to spread. With population centers with varied characteristics, from traditional urban megacities such as São Paulo, to measures to restrict movement. state governors and Supreme the for Court defending rather itself. than virus the Moreover, Bolsonaro blamed first felteconomicthe impacts of isolation measures across country, the poorer of the part population the drug. Bolsonaro stated that he was treated being with the announcingwhen that he had contracted COVID-19, and distribute it throughout country. the In June, that army’s the laboratories would produce pill the prove effectiveness the he determined the drug, of production. Brazil, Brazil has already spent millions of dollars on even sending US’s the drug, remaining stock of pills to it a “little flu” seriousnessthe of situation the from calling start, the Bolsonaro’s government. federal Bolsonaro has denied The mainculprit is actionstaken by President Jair is not reason the for its terrible COVID-19 numbers. Brazil’s geographic configuration, and social however, in portion of population the to live inunhealthy conditions inequality,has of ahistory social forcing asignificant uniform public for policies its citizen’s Brazil health. also Manaus, has country the had in difficulty creating neighbourhoods amid Amazonian biomes such as social isolation.social presidentialin the elections have lowest the levels of fightthe againstCOVID-19—areas that voted for him Bolsonaro’s comments have had anotable impact in malaria. a cure in ‘chloroquine,’ is which normally to treat used to compare himself to, by indicating that he had found emulate USPresident Donald Trump, whom he likes As situation the worsened, Bolsonaro was quick to worse than virus”. the president insists that “hunger and unemployment be will consequences. Even without any scientific support, the economicthe worse be impacts than will health the worked far. so Since March, president the has said that pandemic is result the of calculation apolitical that has approval rates increasing in recent weeks. errors incombating pandemic, the with government ofpart population the not does blame Bolsonaro for have had an effect—recentpolls showthat asignificant andsocial isolation. diesomeday,” all will dismissing when measures like president controversial has used phrases, such as “we favelas 6 Although Trump abandoned defence the of the 5 Although there are no serious studies that (slums) and makingprone them to diseases. 7 3 with number a minimal of deaths. The 8 Bolsonaro’s decision to the minimise 9 As pandemic the spread unevenly 4 10 The narrative seems to 11 The president credit. approved, Bolsonaro the government was quick to take 60 million people. Despite move the Congress being aid, distributed which about US$120each to over from benefited also the creation of emergencyeconomic demanding wages protection. higher and social shocks, with appssocial workers constantly protesting, The uberisation the of economyBrazilian hascaused poorest population had who to remain on streets. the last few months, contagion rates have centered on the classes, were who afraid to leave houses. their In the by 700 percent, Eats. as The Uber these mobileuse of apps increased alternative such income through services, delivery With unemployment rising, asignificantportionsought to maintain production and of health the employees. with companies developing services, digital mechanisms significantportion populationthe of quickly migrated to and, insome even took refuge cases, countryside. inthe A populationthe was quick to adopt working from home different parts population. the of Thewealthiest of part consequences of emergency health the have differed for Despite pandemic the having hit whole the country, the solutions (Unequal) technological armed militias have highest the levels of contamination open against orders the of governors. Areas controlled by mainly taxes, compelled by illegal stores collecting to and masks. In other armed groups cases, that operate traffickingto drug begunhave to distribute neighbourhoods of de Janeiro, Rio organisations linked capabilitiesthe of groups. criminal In poorer The absence of acentral authority even has galvanised economic reality. tiredness of isolation measures and worsening the of the that numbers these are indicating falling, acertain at of beginning the crisis,recent health the show polls state governors receiving support from population the strongly government. federal inthe centralised Despite that budget the and decision-making the process are the vacuum. This to is fill particularly tried relevant given spreadthe of state virus, the governors and evenmayors government’sfederal to refusal adopt practices to curb clearestthe consequences of pandemic. the With the Governance fragmentation inBrazil is perhaps one of Governance crisis 12 13 especially by and especially middle the upper 19 AFTER SIX MONTHS OF COVID-19, BRAZIL’S GOVERNMENT IS ADRIFT BY POLITICAL CHOICE 20 AFTER SIX MONTHS OF COVID-19, BRAZIL’S GOVERNMENT IS ADRIFT BY POLITICAL CHOICE products with environmental justifications. fearing that would bloc the create to barriers local quick with European the ties closer to seek Union, interference. Meanwhile, various state governors were Brazil” time, Bolsonaro declared that Amazon the “belongs to managementthe of Amazon the fires in2019. thatAt was environment, the after was criticised forBrazil actors to produce different narratives. A issue key This change in foreign policy forced subnational supporter of Tel Aviv. and Palestine conflict, to himselfplace as an unrestricted international context, such as mediation Israel inthe US, abandoning traditional Brazilian agendas inthe has adopted with the an unrestricted alliance policy coincidence. Since coming to power in2018,Bolsonaro administration US.The inthe similarity is nota resemblance to actions the employed by Trump the vigorous measures against pandemic the astrong bear BolsonaroThe government’s reluctance to adopt more and COVID-19 the crisis has accelerated it. But Bolsonaro’s to power rise has altered situation this actions remain concentrated government.federal in the included decision-making inthe process, most relevant some attempts inrecent years by organised groups to be other groups political Although to act. there have been of Foreign Affairs,with windows few of opportunity for Brazilian foreign is administered policy by Ministry the and leverages international new agents. Traditionally, changed way the with international Brazil deals partners fragmentationThe politicalthe leadership of also has not explored. yet fully statein the of deJaneiro, Rio with consequences that are country”. complaining that want Chinese the to “buy whole the Bolsonaro has statements made critical about , to Despite China. Brazil’s being largest trading partner, The most important example this of movement is related factorChina The 15 and that he would not tolerate any external 17 The main disputecurrently is overthe issue 14 16 Washington. enter its domestic market, suffer it will fromreprisals US hasthe already said that if Brazil allows Huawei to of implementation the of 5Ginternet country— inthe Maranhão, providing hospital supplies and respirators. agreements states with several such as SãoPaulo and government. quick Beijing has been to establish that of government. federal the stated that it wants up to set aforeign to parallel ministry relationsestablished fruitful with and China has already state governments from that region Brazil, has which Consortium the ofto see Northeast, the agrouping of adifferenttaking position. sense,this In curious it is over apossible alliance with with parties China, political havewill on country. the In Brazil, adivision is formed consensus on possible the threats that rise Chinese the In America. Latin US,there the abipartisan to seems be must considered be analysing when Beijing’s influence in aboutparticularity This the prospects for China in Brazil promising to distribute as as possible. soon drug the and established partnerships with state laboratories, over formal the structures of government federal the With advance the of vaccine research, has China passed ‘mask diplomacy’ advantagedirectly to taking China, of that fact the space for state governors and mayors to talking start Government fragmentation, however, opened up geopolitical gains from crisis. health the virus” and discussing conspiracy over theories Beijing’s governmentfederal ministers it calling “Chinese the connotation, spilled over into COVID-19 the issue, with Narratives against often China, with a strong racist that were already happening, internally and externally. momentary change, pandemic the has accelerated shifts away pandemic. with post But rather than initiating done changesthe be will during enacted period this an economic recession, there remains aperception that in acentury, with hundreds of thousands of deaths and Although pandemic the is worst the tragedy inBrazil 18 19 was ignored being by Bolsonaro the 21 20 20 nytimes.com/2020/04/14/opinion/coronavirus-bolsonaro-brazil.html. nytimes.com/2020/04/14/opinion/coronavirus-bolsonaro-brazil.html. 1. Endnotes 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. coronavirus coronavirus 2020, https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2020/07/09/from-denial-to-contagion-jair-bolsonaro-s-path-towards-the- coronavirus-pandemic-is-brazil-the-new-epicenter/a-53429412. article/health-conoravirus-brazil-politics-idUSE6N1XY02M. article/health-conoravirus-brazil-politics-idUSE6N1XY02M. isolamento-podem-ter-matado-mais-seus-eleitores-aponta-estudo.shtml. Folha deS.Paulo,June30,2020,https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/equilibrioesaude/2020/06/falas-de-bolsonaro-contra- than-800-deaths-from-the-coronavirus-brazil-exceeds-80000-registered-deaths.html. than-800-deaths-from-the-coronavirus-brazil-exceeds-80000-registered-deaths.html. Deaths”, o-que-pode-beneficiar-bolsonaro-mostra-pesquisa.ghtml. o-que-pode-beneficiar-bolsonaro-mostra-pesquisa.ghtml. Econômico, com/world-nation/story/2020-05-25/in-bolsonaros-brazil-everyone-else-is-to-blame-for-virus. coronavirus/#6fe60608237f. coronavirus/#6fe60608237f. https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlieporterfield/2020/07/08/bolsonaro-is-taking-hydroxychloroquine-to-treat-his- 1, 2020,https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-brazil-idUSKBN2370RU. americas/brazil-coronavirus-hospitals-intl/index.html. Brazil’s hospitals,doctorsknowthehorrifyingreality”,CNN,May25,2020,https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/23/ ecommercebrasil.com.br/noticias/downloads-apps-delivery-crescem-sp-coronavirus/. ecommercebrasil.com.br/noticias/downloads-apps-delivery-crescem-sp-coronavirus/. , July 9, ErickGimenes,“Fromdenialtocontagion:JairBolsonaro’spathtowardsthecoronavirus”,BrasildeFato,July9, JanD.Walter,“CoronavirusPandemic:IsBraziltheNewEpicenter?”,DW,May13,2020,https://www.dw.com/en/ “Brazilpresidentsayshungerkillsmorethanthecoronavirus”, Reuters,March31,2020,https://br.reuters.com/ FernandoCanzian,“FalasdeBolsonarocontraisolamentopodemtermatadomaisseuseleitores,apontaestudo”, “Four Months after Bolsonaro Predicted Less than 800 Deaths from the Coronavirus, Brazil Exceeds 80,000 Registered “FourMonthsafterBolsonaroPredictedLessthan800DeathsfromtheCoronavirus,BrazilExceeds80,000Registered , June MattSptenalnick,“U.S.SendsBrazil2MillionDosesofHydroxychloroquine,DrugToutedbyTrump”,Reuters,June VanessaBarbara,‘WeWillAllDieOneDay,’MyPresidentSaid”,TheNewYorkTimes,April14,2020,https://www. Nick Paton Walsh, Jo Shelley, Eduardo Duwe and William Bonnett, “Bolsonaro calls coronavirus a ‘little flu.’ Inside Nick Paton Walsh, Jo Shelley, Eduardo Duwe and William Bonnett, “Bolsonaro calls coronavirus a ‘little flu.’ Inside , July 8, 2020, CarliePorterfield,“BolsonaroIsTakingHydroxychloroquineToTreatHisCoronavirus”,Forbes,July8,2020, Valor CarlosRydlewski“Caiapoiodapopulaçãoagovernadores,oquepode beneficiarBolsonaro,mostrapesquisa”,Valor “InBolsonaro’sBrazil,EveryoneElseIstoBlameforVirus”,, May25,2020,https://www.latimes. “Downloads de apps de delivery crescem 700% na quarentena em SP”, Time24 News,July21,2020,https://www.time24.news/2020/07/four-months-after-bolsonaro-predicted-less- April 24,2020,https://valor.globo.com/eu-e/noticia/2020/04/24/cai-apoio-da-populacao-a-governadores- ECommerce Brasil,June 3, 2020,https://www. 21 AFTER SIX MONTHS OF COVID-19, BRAZIL’S GOVERNMENT IS ADRIFT BY POLITICAL CHOICE 22 AFTER SIX MONTHS OF COVID-19, BRAZIL’S GOVERNMENT IS ADRIFT BY POLITICAL CHOICE mask-diplomacy/. mask-diplomacy/. news/world-latin-america-49815731. news/world-latin-america-49815731. www.reuters.com/article/us-huawei-tech-brazil-5g-idUSKCN24U20X. www.reuters.com/article/us-huawei-tech-brazil-5g-idUSKCN24U20X. https://www.poder360.com.br/poderdata/prefeitos-e-governadores-perdem-popularidade-mostra-datapoder360/. https://www.poder360.com.br/poderdata/prefeitos-e-governadores-perdem-popularidade-mostra-datapoder360/. article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-vaccine-idUSKCN24U3AP. article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-vaccine-idUSKCN24U3AP. 21. 20. 19. 18. 17. 16. 15. 14. 13. cde2d9e09055_story.html. cde2d9e09055_story.html. sized-spat-with-germany-norway-threatens-europe-south-america-trade-deal/2019/08/20/cc60ee3c-c2b8-11e9-8bf7- Deal”, governadores-recorrem-a-china-por-ajuda-contra-coronavirus.html. governadores-recorrem-a-china-por-ajuda-contra-coronavirus.html. coronavírus”, Americas: Vol52,No3https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10714839.2020.1809077?journalCode=rnac20. everyday lifeinRiodeJaneiro’sfavelasasmilitiasseizethepandemictoexpandtheircontrol.”NACLAReporton em visita a Xi Jinping”, BBC News Brasil, October 23, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil-50161509. em visitaaXiJinping”,BBCNewsBrasil,October23,2019,https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil-50161509. Fernando Brancoli, “Coronavirus Puts Criminal Governance at a Crossroads: Parastate authority creeps further into FernandoBrancoli,“CoronavirusPutsCriminalGovernanceataCrossroads:Parastateauthoritycreepsfurtherinto “China’s SinopharmtoTestPotentialCOVID-19VaccineinBrazil”,Reuters,July30,2020,https://www.reuters.com/ “Brazil MayFace‘consequences’IfItGivesHuawei5GAccess,SaysU.S.Ambassador”,Reuters,July29,2020,https:// “Amazon RainforestBelongstoBrazil,SaysJairBolsonaro”,BBCNews,September24,2019,https://www.bbc.com/ Brian Wong,“China’sMaskDiplomacy”,TheDiplomat,March25,2020,https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/chinas- Ricardo Senra, “Um ano após reclamar que China ‘compraria o Brasil’, Bolsonaro quer vender estatais e commodities Ricardo Senra,“UmanoapósreclamarqueChina‘comprariaoBrasil’,Bolsonaroquervenderestataisecommodities Marina Lopes, “Bolsonaro’s Amazon-Sized Spat with Germany and Norway Threatens Europe-South America Trade Marina Lopes, “Bolsonaro’s Amazon-Sized Spat with Germany and Norway Threatens Europe-South America Trade Afonso Benites, “Covid-19: Desconfiados de Bolsonaro, governadores recorrem à China por ajuda contra Afonso Benites,“Covid-19:Desconfiadosde Bolsonaro,governadoresrecorremàChinaporajudacontra Caio Spechoto,“Prefeitosegovernadoresperdempopularidade,mostraDataPoder360”.Poder360, Washington Post,August21,2019,https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/bolsonaros-amazon- El País,March25,2020,https://brasil.elpais.com/brasil/2020-03-25/desconfiados-de-bolsonaro- July 15, 2020, July 15,2020, 3 The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same

Shahid Jameel

he understanding of diseases and the pathogens that cause them has advanced by leaps and bounds over the past few decades. Yet, the initial human response to a has barely T changed with time. Novelist and Nobel Laureate Orhan Pamuk reminds us that “People have always responded to by spreading rumor and false information and portraying the disease as foreign and brought in with malicious intent.” About the current pandemic and historical outbreaks of and , he says, “There is an overabundance of similarities. Throughout human and literary history what makes alike is not mere the commonality of germs and but that our initial response has always been the same.”1

It is important to explore the human response to disease outbreaks—how rumours, half-truths, denial and stigma have worked through the ages and why it is necessary to build trust and communicate well. Science offers us unprecedented hope and a fundamental understanding of why we need to live more sustainably.

Rumors and half-truths

A common human response is to spread rumours and false information. In the past, much of this was driven by not understanding a disease, but even now with easy access to science and technology, there is poor public understanding of the method and process of science. Modern communications tools enable 24 THE MORE THINGS CHANGE, THE MORE THEY STAY THE SAME aid agencies like Medicines Sans Frontiers, was which of Treatment Ebola the wary Units up set by foreign Department or Big Pharma. by US’s the Investigation Central Agency, USDefence space on acomet or was abioweapon created inalab othersStill that believed from HIV came to outer Earth peoplebecause in Haiti were inlarge infected numbers. had somethingHIV/AIDS virus to dowith voodoo cases andcases 11,325deaths, outbreak Ebola the During had in2014-16,which 28,600 “AIDS is God’s punishment”. lifestyles”“perverted of homosexuals, concluding that Majority Falwell Jerry it leader result Sr the called of it “a judgement of God”. Television evangelist and Moral Rev. Billy Graham, aBaptist preacher US,termed inthe 1980s, during early the days of HIV/AIDSdisease, the with malicious intent. brought in and foreign portraying the disease as and information false and rumor spreading by responded to epidemics People have always the Antoninethe plague of in165-180AD. practices fortheir angering Roman the gods and causing it inaforeign land. TheRomans blamedChristians and intent or due to incompetence the of others to contain is alwaysdisease foreign, either brought with malicious andabout from disease the where. carried who The Throughthe ages,the most commonrumours were world,the including inIndia. COVID-19 pandemic has unfolded indifferent parts of have media, throughfueled social impacted how the accusations on nationalist based and religious identities, itself. As disease the with old plagues, rumours and rumours and information false to spread faster than Novelist andNobelLaureate - OrhanPamuk foreign aid. facility,US military or agovernment plot to attract more again about having virus the manufactured been ina 7 People in West were Africa particularly 6 the common the rumors were 5

2 4 Others argued Others that the 3 In the the In is among with such views. those radical French virologist , discovered who HIV, used byused slave the traders. byused foreign workers health were same the as those slave and trade colonial histories—many of routes the still assert it assert was made inalabstill inChina. bats to humans and from then person to person, many that COVID-19 was the firsttransmitted virus from In 2020,contrary to overwhelmingevidence scientific medication. ofto use the recreational and drugs anti-retroviral thatview AIDSis not caused by HIVbut instead due researcher at University the of held California, the But is this nothing new. Peter aprominent Duesberg, health departmenthealth warning of apneumonia outbreak in 2003, ProMED received anotice from Hong the Kong and outbreak detection and reporting. On10February of use the electronic, internet-based emerging disease outbreaks.disease Founded in1994,it has pioneered trawls internet the looking for chatter about unusual Program for Monitoring (ProMED) Emerging Diseases The International forSociety Infectious Diseases’ . thousands of preventable deaths and infections new in due to is denial, thought this to have caused hundreds of to people HIV/AIDSinfected inatimely manner, partly (1999-2008). The failureMbeki to provide medication South Africa’s under President HIV/AIDSpolicy Thabo scientific community, 4 September 2020. million confirmedcases and over 191,000deaths as of advanced nation. Theis country reelingwith over 6.3 grave situation world’s inthe most technologically during early the of part pandemic the has to led a as aproblem at highest the levels of USgovernment the not people. alarm The continued COVID-19 denial of often claimingbeingthis done is in ‘public interest’ to pickand data cherry then to not extent, reveal its full manipulate data to first denythe existence of adisease outbreaks.disease Governments distort and facts of part early the been has response also Denial to stigma andDenial, its consequences organs and steal blood. It was rumored that units these were meant to harvest rates meant that went who those inwere not again. seen hardly surprising since containment and fatality high 13 Though comprehensively the rejected by 15

12

14 Duesberg’s influenced denialism 8 Others drew Others on memories of 9

11

10 Surprisingly, simply “Gay Disease”. Gay-Related Immune circles, in medical Deficiency or excess of called and sexual as adisease perversity—even excessive alcohol use, HIV/AIDS was initially labeled was to linked unhealthy habits such as smoking and was shameful and somehow her fault. Just as cancer and stigma had faced made to feel that disease the left for Chinese the New Year break. to quarantine Wuhan, fivepeople million already had world. the tofailed notify When finallydecided China authoritieshealth of knew inChina outbreaks the but of SARSvirus the 2003.In it cases, both is clear that sequence, confirming be a it novelto virus related to nextthe day and on 7January virus 2020released the Center ControlChinese The for Disease this confirmed and animal to linked market.China, wild seafood the up chatter about a cluster of in Wuhan, cases deaths. 29 countries, 8096people infected and caused 774 worldthe heard of eventually SARS,which spread to that in Novemberstarted 2002.Thatthe was first time and 305cases revealed five deathsfrom an outbreak Organization (WHO) enquired next the day, China China’s Guangdong province. When World the Health health messaginghealth and of use the vague terms such as and could get into nation’s the supply; public blood poor that disease discovery HIV/AIDSwas ablood-borne and threetraced panic.to factors—the Thiscanbe at largesociety turned stigmatisation this into hysteria perceivedThe threat that patients HIV/AIDS to posed Communications and trust of 4September. confirmedcases and over 873,000deaths confirmed as pandemic affecting 215countries,with over 26million outbreakwas initially a local has developed into aglobal other things.” using it as ametaphor), that horror is on imposed a metaphor.the Then, in name (that the disease of is, becomes identified itself The withthedisease disease. (corruption, decay, pollution, anomie, weakness) are of “First, half-truths. subjects the of dread deepest treatment is not readily available becomes atarget any causality whose is murky disease and for which and philosopher Susan Sontag drew attention to how Metaphor, as In Illness her book American the writer higher. 16 On 30 December 2019,ProMED On 30December again picked 19 As acancer patient 1970s,Sontag inthe 18 The actual figures The actual likelyare be to much 20

17 Since what then, and deficit. atrust was facing aseriousmigrant communication crisis,poor care of vulnerable. the At same the time, rest the of India transparent communication and to willingness the take government and population, the driven by clear and evidentAlso was a culture state the of between trust technicalities of airborne transmission, And there mixed messaging has been on masks and the COVID-19 is1918, the transmitted virus by aerosols. Unlike HIV/AIDS,but Spanish like deadly the Flu of pastin the few months, not understood. is still fully by despite which, virus, anew advances the all made Similar fears are evident with COVID-19. It is caused continuously and now stands at 77percent. rate is bound to approach 98.2 percent; it has increased With fatality case the rate 1.8percent, being recovery the in the US (41,804 cases) or US(41,804cases) in the Brazil (40,237cases). averaged 78,364 daily waswhich far cases, than higher world.the week the ending Over September 4,India India is now growing faster than any other in country person; and that it was caused by virus. deadly anew transmittedbe through handled objects by an infected fluids”“bodily giving the impression that even it could distribution now. urban distribution for first the cases milliontoa67:33 India—fromurban to rural an estimated 40:60rural- at large. is thea shift in worrying Equally outbreakfrom official narrative has brought complacency the to public rural India, isrural this amatter of grave concern. building up on its efficient publichealth system. controlled its first outbreak withand efficiency, speed it was far more open and responsive. In India, Kerala SARSandboth COVID-19, thoughlatter inthe case outbreaks.evident This was the way in China handled Free and are speech trust important tools to control people and create fear. afterthe US and Brazil. with third the highest toll in number of and cases deaths million confirmedcases and 68,000deaths, placing it At of time the writing, India has recorded over 3.9 rate and low mortality, is which only truth. the half continuously emphasised only increasing the recovery claims there is no ‘community transmission’ and has lies incommunications and The trust. government still 68 days, from 25March to 31June? The answer probably early and had one of world’s the toughest lockdowns for is happening this to that acountry very curbs imposed 30 24 25 With healthcare poor penetration in

26 Alarmingly, outbreak the in 22 which confuse confuse which 29 27 This This Why Why 23 21 28

25 THE MORE THINGS CHANGE, THE MORE THEY STAY THE SAME 26 THE MORE THINGS CHANGE, THE MORE THEY STAY THE SAME publicly available, 4, over 94,000SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences are diagnostic tests, vaccines and therapies. As of September characterised, paved which way the for developing notification, wereviruses isolatedfrom patients and around world the to work together. Within days of its power of and science of willingness the global The responseCOVID-19 to displaysalso the plasma to save are who those gravely ill. Promisingly, recovered patients are to willing donate 800 diagnostic tests have developed, been months for SARS vaccine the to reach testing. Almost This is remarkable consideringthat in2003 it 20 took have and infected thousands been of others have died. even though hundreds of thousands workers health frontlines of part treating world, the sick the inevery nurses and other healthcare workers remain on the to help each other in India and elsewhere. Doctors, and lostdisease livelihoods, people have come together evolution and movement across globe. the pandemic. reminded world the on way the forward the to tackle organisationspartner across world. the It recently (GOARN) is aWHO network of over 250technical OutbreakThe Global andAlert Response Network open access. year, and most publishers have maderesearch this also openly posted on pre-printbeen since early this servers mutual understanding”. by we our discover fear; ahumility init that encourages Pamuk. He adds, “We further are no longer mortified a similar anguish draws us out of our loneliness,” says alone, but recognition the that we are experiencing all unknown. “Fear, like thought the of dying, makes us feel fed more by our understanding than of of disease the Unlike old plagues and pandemics, fear the today is and hope thefutureScience, clinical trials and three receiving trials clinical limited approval. use vaccines are under development, with 46 in human efficacy. differenttreatments arewith various in use levels of 37 More than 10,000papers on COVID-19 have 38

33 allowing scientists to its model 31 In aworld with gripped 34 Over 200 200 Over 36 and 20 32 35

to normality.”to built for ourselves. Nothing worse could be than areturn us achance to rethinkdoomsday the machine we have adding, “And midst inthe of terrible this despair, it offers and smoky us,” skiesbehind says author Arundhati Roy, avarice, our data and banks our ideas, rivers dead dead dragging carcasses the of our prejudice and hatred, our world and next. the We through to can walk choose it, is no different. agatewayportal, It is a between one with past the and imagine world their anew. This one “Historically, pandemics have forced humans to break assistance to responders.” direction toa global each nation and tailored technical international response as organisation the offers both action and international solidarity. WHO is key to the criteriahealth and and needs; (7)champion multilateral shouldwhich according allocated be to sound public access to diagnostic tests, therapeutics, and vaccines, explain decisions (6) ensure these clearly; equitable wearing have shown been to improve outcomes), and isolation for infectious patients and mandated mask and epidemiological the situation supervised (eg, basis of acomprehensive strategy, latest the evidence, workforce for response; this (5)make decisions on the (4) invest rapid inthe expansion of public the health strengthenedcan be by pool; expanding advisory the teams,emergency medical current because decisions outbreak responders, including GOARN andpartners of experienced (3) leverage expertise in-country counterproductive and to strategic leads poor decisions; of COVID-19 the response politicisation because is response measures; (2)discourage politicisation the encourage ownership local of outbreak control to forpublicbuild trust evidence-based andhealth and at partners level to (1)engage alocal communities GOARN“The CommitteeSteering urges all governments learn fromlearn it for abetter future. We are atpoint an inflection in our shared history. Let us 39

W.H. 2019),pp. Allen, 208. ebola/history/2014-2016-outbreak/index.html 2015, https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/memetic-engineering-conspiracies-viruses-and-historical-agency/ 1994), pp. 330. muslims-around/458728/ Print The 1 Endnotes 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 com/2020/04/23/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-orhan-pamuk.html Immune Deficiency Syndromes. 49(2008):410. 1994), pp. 383. timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/coronavirus-man-made-in-wuhan-lab-nobel-laureate/articleshow/75227989.cms manipulation?”, novel-coronavirus-a-product-of-evolution-or-deliberate-manipulation/cid/1774318 Mark Honigsbaum, The PandemicCentury –A History of GlobalContagion from the Covid-19,to (London: Centers for Control Disease and Prevention, Outbreak “2014-2016Ebola inWest Africa”, https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ Selvage, Douglas “Memetic Engineering: Conspiracies, Viruses and Historical Agency”, Garrett, Laurie John Horgan, “”, Encyclopedia Kidwai Rasheed and Naghma Sahar, “Let’s about talk how Tablighi Jamaat turned hate Covid against Muslims around”, Orhan Pamuk, “What Great the Pandemic Novels Teach Us”, New York Times Honigsbaum, The PandemicCentury Honigsbaum, The PandemicCentury Pride Chigwedere, etal., “Estimating Pride Chigwedere, Benefits Lost the of Antiretroviral Drug South in Africa”Use Acquired of Journal Duesberg JohnPhenomenon”, “The Cohen, Science Garrett, Laurie TheComing Plague – Newly EmergingDiseases in a WorldOut Balanceof (New York: Penguin Books, Worldometers, “”, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ Surendra Singh, “Coronavirus man-made inWuhan lab: Nobel laureate”, The Times of India Shahid Jameel, “Is novel the coronavirus aproduct of evolution or deliberate , July 12,2020,https://theprint.in/opinion/lets-talk-about-how-tablighi-jamaat-turned-covid-hate-against- The Telegraph The TheComing Plague – Newly EmergingDiseases in a WorldOut Balanceof (New York: Penguin Books, , May 19,2020,https://www.telegraphindia.com/science-tech/covid-19-pandemic-is-the- 266 (1994): 1642. 266(1994):1642. , May 2,2019,https://www.ancient.eu/Antonine_Plague/ , April 23,2020,https://www.nytimes. Open Democracy Open 22, , October , April 19,2020,https:// 27 THE MORE THINGS CHANGE, THE MORE THEY STAY THE SAME 28 THE MORE THINGS CHANGE, THE MORE THEY STAY THE SAME https://www.article-14.com/post/no-action-taken-frustration-in-national-covid-19-task-force 20 19 18 17 16 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 india/article32476163.ece August 30,2020,https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/the-hindu-explains-is-covid-19-intensifying-in-rural- sentinel-surveillance/ March 20, 2020, https://science.thewire.in/health/covid-19-icmr-vrdl--like-illness-community-transmission- coronavirus/#countries April 23,2020,https://www.article-14.com/post/govt-knew-lockdown-would-delay-not-control-pandemic andEconomic Political Weekly transmission-new-coronavirus-180975547/ Magazine, 12August 2020,https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/what-scientists-know-about-airborne- W.H. 2019),pp. Allen, 149. 1994), pp. 292. W.H. 2019),pp. Allen, 261-263. The Bridge Street Press, 2020), pp. 66-67. Pamuk, “What Great the Pandemic Novels Teach Us” Vignesh Sumant Radhakrishnan, and Naresh Sen Singaravelu, “Is intensifying Covid-19 India”, inrural The Hindu Worldometers, “India” Priyanka “Four Pulla, Reasons It’s Hard India to Believe Doesn’t Have Community Transmission”, The WireScience , Worldmeters, and “Reported Deaths Cases by Country, Territory, or Conveyance”, https://www.worldometers.info/ Worldometers, “India”, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/ Nitin and Kumar Sethi Sambhav Shrivastava, “Frustration in National Task Covid-19 Force”, Nitin and Kumar Sethi Sambhav Shrivastava, “Govt Knew Lockdown Would Delay, Not Control Pandemic”, Article 14 T.M. Thomas Rajeev Sadanandan, Isaac and “COVID-19, Governance System Local and in Kerala”, Jim Daley, “What Scientists Know About Airborne Transmission of New the Coronavirus”, Smithsonian The Mark Honigsbaum, Garrett, Laurie The Coming Plague –Newly Emerging Diseases in aWorld Out of Balance (New York: Penguin Books, Metaphor Susan as Sontag, Illness Worldmeters, “COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic”, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries Mark Honigsbaum, DeboraMackenzie, Covid-19: The pandemic that never should have happened, and how to stop the next one, (London: The PandemicCentury –A History of GlobalContagion from the Spanish Flu Covid-19to , (London: The PandemicCentury –A History of GlobalContagion from the Spanish Flu Covid-19to , (London: , LV (2020):35. , (New York: Farrar, Strauss and Giroux, 1978),pp. 58. Article 14 , April 24, 2020, , , 19-in-india 2020, https://weather.com/en-IN/india/coronavirus/news/2020-07-18-more-than-1000-doctors-infected-with-covid- 36 35 34 33 32 39 38 37 August 24,2020,https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-drugs-treatments.html pipeline/ August 31,2020,https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html 74eb-11ea-95fe-fcd274e920ca Arundhati Roy,pandemic portal”, is a “The Financial Times A.Fisher Dale and Carson, Gale “Back to outbreak the basics: response pillars”,Lancet The Jonathan Katherine Corum, J. Wu and Carl Zimmer, “Coronavirus and drug treatment tracker”, , Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics, “SARS-CoV2 diagnostic pipeline”, https://www.finddx.org/covid-19/ Jonathan Grady, Denise Corum, Sui-LeeWee and Carl Zimmer, “Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker”, The New York Times , Genomic of novel coronavirus subsampling, -Global https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global?c=region Initiative Global on Sharing Influenza All Data, https://www.gisaid.org/ “More than 1,000 Doctors Infected with COVID-19 in India; Tally Global Nearly 3,000”, , April 3,2020,https://www.ft.com/content/10d8f5e8- The The ChannelWeather , 396 (2020): 598. , 396(2020):598. , July 18, 29 THE MORE THINGS CHANGE, THE MORE THEY STAY THE SAME 4 No More Quarantine: Is it Time for Russia to Celebrate?

Viktoriia Ivanchenko

f one was to visit Russia now, it would appear that there is no pandemic any longer. Crowds of people walk through the streets, visit tourist spots and cafes, resorts and the seaside are overloaded, and some regions are already holding concerts and conferences. After all, Russia wasI the first country in the world to announce a COVID-19 vaccine.1 So, is it high time to celebrate the victory?

The Russian government claims that people must do everything to avoid new and restrictions.2 Twelve regions are still in the ‘red zone’, and many restrictions remain in force all over the country. Masks, social distancing, temperature checks, closed offices, and remote work and study remain an integral part of Russian reality. About 60 percent of Russians believe that a second way of the coronavirus outbreak could hit in the autumn.3 It seems that people have already adapted to the new rules of living, and the government should now avoid creating obstacles for people to enjoy life even in such a restrictive environment. And indeed, lifting restrictions did not lead to any tangible rise in infection numbers in Russia, demonstrating the government has control over the situation.

Some countries have already opened their air spaces for Russia, including Turkey, the UK, Switzerland, Tanzania,4 Egypt, United Arab Emirates and the Maldives.5 Testing for COVID-19 is necessary to conduct events and to travel and has already become a daily routine without the compulsory quarantine. countries have sought more details. have shown an interest inbuying it, but some other of Russian the vaccine, and Vietnam and Kazakhstan and Venezuela have agreed to participate testing inthe communication. intelligence and you skills get through personal education, including development the of emotional of education. There are limitationsalso to digital unsure of its use. world, but authorities health inother countries are still could have become acause for celebration for whole the announcement of vaccine, the Sputnik V. The vaccine This new reality is not connected to Russia’s There will be no Theremassevents will return to traditional the classroom format for now. Most schools and universities have not decided to Adapting to change quite negatively, with Russian students, parents and teachers perceiving it become an important of part teaching the process, but into future. inthe country the learning Digital must The Russian government is nowtheir discussing entry Russia year academic their online start via classes. will International students may who currently outside be international exchange programmes year. this format. vaccination programme in2021avolunteer start will among be will first the to receivethe vaccine, and a mass Nevertheless, workers medical and teachers in Russia vaccine,the evenas doubts over its effectiveness remain. hospitals and are afraid of potential the side-effects of aboutsceptical treatment the provided being in Suspicions were communities. rife inall People remain is why current eventhe pandemic spurred conspiracy. strong anti-vaccination movement country, inthe which isthis not an situation easy for Russian society. Therea is Despite first the being country to announce avaccine, different vaccines. only possible vaccine; other institutions are testing also effectiveness underway. is still Also, Sputnik V is notthe Russia has announced vaccine, the testing to check its Russia inthe world wasthefirstcountry to 9 11 6 announce aCOVID-19 vaccine. Some countries like Mexico, Belarus it cannot main the be channel 10 and probably no no probably and 7,8 But although although But

levels. during quarantine the rose by 89percent over previous actively—donations vulnerable for groups socially Russians have to donate begun to charities more There have been other changesalso indomesticpolicy. of COVID-19, firstly,from Sovietformer countries. regulatedstrictly and controlled to avoid any spread new but,open soon, meantime, inthe area the is being industry.services Thatwhy is borders the certainly will normal functioning of its economy, inits especially students. Russia foreign needs also workers for the bordersClosed are not an issue only for international subsidiary. goingis also to produce another possible its vaccine via campaign financial conglomerateSberbank initiated adonation have suffered pandemic.due the to For instance, the and projects were announced to help who those Fast and just before Easter. churchesclosed for parishioners during Great the For instance, Russian the Church Orthodox levels managedlocal to have reached acompromise. organisations and authorities at and federal the discussionsseveral and disagreements, but religious distancing and sanitisation have rules caused host of challenges. new Conforming to social Russia’s religious community had to has facea also on. wore with government the to adapt trying as crisis the handle pressures the of pandemic the without collapsing, its limitations, healthcare the system was able to urgent reforms, are which long overdue. Yet, despite The Russian healthcare system in need also of is though the virus infected several bishops several infected though virus the and priests. despite there instances being of dissidence even adapted to normal new the quite successfully, restrictions.the Even so, religious the community religious extremely became rules difficult with for all afar more Observing extended period. for about two months, and insome regions mosques in Russia were for closed worshipers 12 During the lockdown, several new activities lockdown, the activities During new several 13 14 to support invention the of vaccine the and 15 Most churches and 16

31 NO MORE QUARANTINE: IS IT TIME FOR RUSSIA TO CELEBRATE? 32 NO MORE QUARANTINE: IS IT TIME FOR RUSSIA TO CELEBRATE? Surveillance is spread to the nowSurveillance trace necessary of amount of information personal through technology. vulnerability of private life and access easy to a great pandemicThegiven rise also to concernshas overthe some positive signs. only visiblewill be future, inthe but there are already consequencesfull Thetransformations of social such rebuilding connections and with friends acquaintances. advantage of spending with time families their and are adapting to working from home, with added the to reconsider lives fast-paced their and careers. People The lockdown presented a new opportunity forpeople are ready for internal tourist flows. shownhas also that not destinations all country in the beautiful sights to become popular, but pandemic the is an opportunity for forgotten cities with and history havewill to from opencountry their inside anew. This reviving Russian the countryside. This year, Russians metropolises, it has to given discussion anew about rise time. With pandemic the showing limitations the of mobile, and mass gatherings were cancelled for along to pandemic. the Russian tourism has sector lost about US$6.7billion due COVID-19 brought about many significant changes. The What ahead lies 17 Big cities less became dynamic and government announced alarge package To cope with economic the the side-effects, Russian governments have over data. invading into an individual’s private life and control the infection,the evenas it adangerous sets precedent of the lessonsthe they’ve during learned past the sixmonths. to avoidmust try waves new of infection by employing entire world. But until Russia then, and other countries safe and effective,be a will hugeit step forward for the a strong impact inRussia. If Russian the vaccine proves COVID-19The crisis factorsand local other have had exists. notdoes arise, given that grounds the for dissatisfaction for Russian the government to ensure such asituation to unrestrise and protest movements. It is important Lockdowns, coupled instability, with social could give mustand society civil assist groups. these lost of jobsbecause their pandemic. the The government persons with disabilities, unemployed the and who those homeless people, young families and single mothers, overcome. groups Several remain vulnerable, including it early too that to think economic the crisis has been Some of measures these have but curtailed, already been doctors, measures to help and small medium-sized businesses, 19 families with children andlost who jobs. those 18 of supportive supportive of 1 Endnotes 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 ws.com/2020/08/11/vladimir-putin-claims-daughter-inoculated-after-russia-registers-coronavirus-vaccine https://lenta.ru/news/2020/08/14/no_events/ ary-1-120081101429_1.html www.business-standard.com/article/international/russia-likely-to-start-covid-19-mass-vaccination-from-janu- world/1189635 economy/1193933; “Vietnam to Purchase Russian COVID-19 Vaccine,” TASS rus-vaccine-a71214 The Moscow Times, August 21,2020, https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/08/21/mexico-to-test-russias-coronavi- com/2020/08/21/mexico-to-test-russias-coronavirus-vaccine-a71214; “Mexico to Test Russia’s Coronavirus Vaccine,” html August 13,2020, https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/12/europe/russia-coronavirus-vaccine-what-we-know-intl/index. com/economy/1196753 rusaviainsider.com/russia-to-re-launch-international-air-travel-on-august-1/ sa.html , Augustгазета 22,2020,https://rg.ru/2020/08/22/vciom-okolo-60-rossiian-ne-iskliuchaiut-vtoroj-volny-koronaviru- interfax.ru/russia/719439 “Russia to Register First aCoronavirus Becomes Country Vaccine,” Euronews “Russia Likely to Start Mass Covid-19 Vaccination from January 1,2021,” Business-Standard “Russia to Supply over of Sputnik 2MlnDoses VVaccine to Kazakhstan,” TASS “Mexico to Test Russia’s Coronavirus Vaccine,” The Moscow Times “What Rahim, Zamira We Know -and Don’t Know -about Russia’s ‘Sputnik Vaccine,” V’ CNN,Cable News Network, “Russia Resumes International Emirates, with Egypt, Maldives,” Air Service TASS, September 3,2020,https://tass. “Russia to Re-Launch International Air Travel on August 1,” Russian Aviation Insider Ольга Игнатова, “ВЦИОМ: Около 60%Россиян второй не исключают волны коронавируса,” Российская повторного избежать сделать чтобы призвал все, “Путин карантина,” Интерфакс, July 29,2020,https://www. “Массовые мероприятия в российских школах запретили до конца “Массовые школах 2020года,” мероприятия вроссийских запретили Lenta.ru, August 14,2020, , August 21, 2020,https://www.themoscowtimes. , August 14, 2020,https://tass.com/ , August 11,2020,https://www.eurone- , August 26, 2020,https://tass.com/ , July 25,2020,http://www. , August 11,2020,https:// 33 NO MORE QUARANTINE: IS IT TIME FOR RUSSIA TO CELEBRATE? 34 NO MORE QUARANTINE: IS IT TIME FOR RUSSIA TO CELEBRATE? mosgoszdrav, 2020,https://mosgorzdrav.ru/ru-RU/employees-benefits.html Государственная April Дума, 17,2020,http://duma.gov.ru/news/48320/ 2020, https://www.interfax.ru/business/716593 https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4321264 до начала эпидемии,”, May Собака.ru 19,2020,https://www.sobaka.ru/city/society/108793 19 18 17 14 13 12 11 16 15 chenie Ведомости, May 28,2020,https://www.vedomosti.ru/management/articles/2020/05/28/831354-distantsionnoe-obu- rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/5f4014f19a79471fa28ce853 d9aeb-d4c5-476b-9ae1-c38184eb7be2 – Individual Clients, May 12,2020,https://www.sberbank.ru/ru/press_center/all/article?newsID=d9f - rest-of-the-world-news/moscow-orthodox-churches-re-open.html Надежда Померанцева, “Почему студенты и преподаватели невзлюбили дистанционное обучение,” дистанционное ипреподаватели невзлюбили Померанцева, Надежда “Почему студенты “Стимулирующие выплаты работникам, оказывающим медицинскую помощь медицинскую оказывающим сCOVID-19,”“Стимулирующие выплаты пациентам работникам, “Парламент принял новый законов пакет дляподдержки вусловиях граждан коронавируса,” COVID-19 в1,5трлн рублей,” из-за оценил потери турбизнеса российского “Ростуризм Интерфакс, July 9, коронавирусом,” заражения вкоторых храмы, случаи выявили “РПЦ назвала Коммерсантъ, April 13,2020, “Moscow Churches Orthodox Re-Open,” World Republic Дарья Гладких, больше, чем раза “Впериод вдва на аожертвовали благотворительность пандемии россияне “‘Дочка’ Сбербанка займется производством вакцины от коронавируса,” от вакцины производством “‘Дочка’ займется Сбербанка РБК,August 21,2020,https://www. скоронавирусом,” присоединиться кборьбе всем возможность дает “Сбербанк “Сбербанк” , June 7,2020,https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/ 5 Peru Remains in Lockdown, But Promise of Vaccine Brings Hope

Clarissa Rios Rojas

t has been six months since Peru was hit with its first case of the COVID-19 virus. By 2 September, 3,156,679 people had been tested, with 639,435 positive results and 28,607 deaths.1 IThese appalling numbers have impacted the country at its core and have pushed for new economic and social regulations and a ‘new normal.

New normal for Peruvian society

A mandatory social isolation that started in March is still in place, as of end August, meaning that citizens from the five worst affected regions (out of 25) and 20 provinces (out of 196) are only able to leave their homes to access essential goods and services or for activities like acquiring, producing or supplying food and other assistance to health centres. In the rest of the country, only children under 14 years and people in risk groups remain in quarantine. The use of a mask is mandatory in public spaces all over the country.

Additionally, a mandatory immobilisation order (curfew) is in place, which means that citizens cannot move on the streets between 10:00 p.m. and 4:00 a.m. from Monday to Sunday. In the regions and provinces under mandatory quarantine, this order runs from Monday to Saturday from 8:00 p.m. to 4:00 a.m. Also, the curfew is imposed for all citizens nationwide on Sundays.

The lockdown has been difficult to follow for the majority of Peruvians due to several socioeconomic factors. Over 70 percent of the Peruvian workforce 36 PERU REMAINS IN LOCKDOWN, BUT PROMISE OF VACCINE BRINGS HOPE refrigerator. About of half households all donot have access to a hired temporarily with no guaranteed working hours. employees donot receive benefits health and are often are not or taxed monitored by government. the Informal willingness towillingness change and adapt to situation the in At same the time, Peruvians have shown also a Most Peruvians donot have account. abank the journey on journey the foot. banned, large groups of people (about 170,000) made to return areas. to rural Since regional all transport was many Peruvians (and immigrants, such as Venezuelans) Job capital the in cities, losses especially has , pushed has had astrong impact. are restricted outside of big the cities and lockdown the inPeru shopping. daily grocery services Food delivery for offood and time extended periods rely heavily on atfood home means that are they unable to store fresh is informal, collect acash compensation.collect had to go inperson to government-owned to banks poorestthe households, around 8.6 million people result, government the when released arelief to fund gathering at anightclub inLima. gatherings,practices and other such social as arecent with lockdown measures and attend football parties, Additionally, of parts population the donot still comply groups of people gather. water and rely on water points, collection where large that fact the some homes donot have access to running families live insingle rooms. This is compounded by or but banks households, inpoor also where large distancing is notSocial only hard to maintain at markets challenging. where complying distancing with measures social was 2 3 meaning that adaily earn income they and Thelack equipmentof freshto needed keep 4

6 This led This led to long queues, 7

with with people had been tested,people had been 639,435 and and 3,156,679 By 2September, 28,607 5 As a a As positive results treatment. moneycollected to build own their oxygen sources for and Iquitos (413,000inhabitants) self-organised and (63,000 inhabitants), Huancabamba (30,000inhabitants) mainin the access areas. Similarly, citizens inHuacho fumigations and applying an epidemiological fence equipping hospitals, their limiting transport, promoting for central government support. This plan included region created contingency plans without waiting defense organisation of peasants) Cajamarca inthe The offeringsanitisation products. temperatures before entering establishment the and implemented protocols strict such as checking clients’ ’panaderias’ and neighborhood more to tech reach savvy out to consumers online, live concerts. Business owners have become also masks production, and online fumigation services to better navigate through normal, new the including Many citizens have turned to business new models transmitted radioand via state-owned the channel. TV government-createdwhich educational programmes are ‘ the initiatives at universities. Parents have adapted to follow education virtual time through efficient capacity building various ways. Theretransition asmooth been has full- to week of September. percent of estimated the cost of vaccines the by third the must pay an advance of 15percent between and 20 Peruvians to have access to aCOVID-19 vaccine. Vaccines and Immunizations, that allow 6.6million will Preparedness Innovations and Alliance Global forthe World Health Organization, for Coalition the Epidemic COVAX Facility initiative, a multilateral effort led the by indicated that his government had connected with the On 20August, Peruvian President Martin Vizcarra Recent government announcements deaths. Aprendo en casa at’ (learn home) scheme, through ‘rondas campesinas’ (self-assembled communal (bakeries) have (bakeries) 8 Peru remaining households. nationwide, and plans were to cover underway the en casa platform is available to 96percent of homes educationThealso announced that ministry its aprendo of the beneficiaries will be micro ofwill and small beneficiaries the businesses). as aguaranteeserve for loans to companies (93percent Peru plan, have which awarded been US$8.4billion to tourism, micro and businesses small and Reactiva the business support inaddition fund to similar funds for The government also has approved an agricultural receive government the subsidies. to open account a basic for for free any person to An emergency decree has allowed National the Bank delivering economic the support to needy families. private to banks create amore efficient systemof The government coordinatingalso is with different for approval trial clinical to one week. vaccine access to about 15days (from sixmonths) and working to cut administrative the processing for time have will also accessis to avaccine. The ministry health means that over 90percent of national the population million vaccines from five different laboratories. This If efforts these succeed, acquirewill Peru around 30.4 of having Peruvian citizens participate trials. inclinical stages of COVID-19 vaccine testing, with intention the laboratorieswith seven that are already inadvanced In addition, current the administration is indirect contact disasters. Arisk assessment office be must established, catastrophic events, including natural and manmade protocols must readied for be a range of potential global events with extreme consequences. At national the level, tools to prepareuseful for unpredictable or unforeseen threats. Forecasting co-creation and policy be will capacity of member states to better manage potential organisation for aconcerted effort to enhancethe for Change Global Research could become lead the At regional the level, Inter-American the Institute future. inthe crisis that useful can be there are valuable insights from efforts the to handlethis COVID-19 crisis caught Peru by surprise. Nevertheless, As with many countries around world, the the learnt Lessons administrations as atransportation subsidy. providingalso up to US$10.6million to 26province 11

9 The government is 10

variants, recommendations in21indigenous languages and to Peru all. provides COVID-19 regulations and availablebe inlanguages and formats accessible In amulticultural nation, information material must that to people’s the speaks needs. citizens inaway that is concise, effective, innovative and jointlybe produced by scientists, and policymakers Communication on risks and should policies new UK, Office the at Peruvian parliament, muchlike the asin fostered by creation the of and a Science Technology sharedshould be also with citizens.be efforts These can This communicationevidence-informed policymaking. scientificthe academy theand government for is crucial Having bilateral transparent communication between pandemics. Peru must establish also ministry. ascience collaboration) must apriority be to prepare for future Investing (research, inscience innovation and Americas. in the should into feed and work jointly with other risk centres managing risk and developing protocols. the This office with a transdisciplinary team that is in charge of other crises. behaviours best the to follow during apandemic or at education higher levels to educated youngsters on school and at educationalthe secondary curricula Finally, lessons from COVID-19 must included be in languages. native population access to information own intheir the Europeanthe Union. of heart the decision-making political inPeru, as it is in implemented. be will Knowledge and reason must at be during acrisisis pivotal designing when how policies Understanding role the that people’s emotions play hospitals. up transfersince the speed it will of information among promote an integrated mandatory is model health also forneeded intensive care units. The use of to technology go towards enhancing and increasing equipment the to mitigate apandemic. This financial support should Allocating budget a higher to is sector health the crucial scanning studies about to think future the of governance. to interact with government the or organizes horizon 12 which conducts which webinar trainings for academics 14 which has which allowed over 90percent of the 13

37 PERU REMAINS IN LOCKDOWN, BUT PROMISE OF VACCINE BRINGS HOPE 38 PERU REMAINS IN LOCKDOWN, BUT PROMISE OF VACCINE BRINGS HOPE FiscaliaPeru/status/1297655242100748290 document/file/1259697/Reporte%2020.08.2020.pdf peruano-2020 americatv.com.pe/noticias/actualidad/coronavirus-continua-exodo-masivo-peruanos-hacia-regiones-n412102 www.inei.gob.pe/media/MenuRecursivo/publicaciones_digitales/Est/Lib1539/ https://elperuano.pe/noticia-el-711-de-trabajadores-el-peru-son-informales-93831.aspx minsa-casos-confirmados-por-coronavirus-covid-19-ascienden-a-639-435-en-el-peru-comunicado-n-223 1 Endnotes 14 13 12 11 10 document/file/1259697/Reporte%2020.08.2020.pdf 9 document/file/1259697/Reporte%2020.08.2020.pdf 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 variantes ministerio-de-cultura-traduce-informacion-y-mensajes-preventivos-sobre-el-covid-19-en-21-lenguas-originarias-y- decision and-technical-research-reports/understanding-our-political-nature-how-put-knowledge-and-reason-heart-political- document/file/1050678/22.07.2020_Reporte_anuncios_de_acciones_del_Gobierno.pdf document/file/1050678/22.07.2020_Reporte_anuncios_de_acciones_del_Gobierno.pdf Public Ministry, Government of Peru: “Comunicado del Ministerio Publico”, August 23,2020,https://twitter.com/ Presidency of of Council the Ministers, Government of Peru, August 20,2020,https://cdn.www.gob.pe/uploads/ IPSOSGroup, “Bancarizacion del Peruano 2020”, June 24,2020.https://www.ipsos.com/es-pe/bancarizacion-del- “Coronavirus: “Continúa el masivo éxodo hacialasregiones”, deperuanos TV America Instituto Nacional eInformática, deEstadística Government of Peru: Peru (2017) PerfilSociodemografico https:// Peruano, El official government trabajadores“El 71.1%delos newspaper: en el son informales”, Perú 2,2020. April of Health, Ministry Government of Peru, September 2,2020,https://www.gob.pe/institucion/minsa/noticias/296867- Presidency of of Council the Ministers, Government of Peru, August 20,2020,https://cdn.www.gob.pe/uploads/ Presidency of of Council the Ministers, Government of Peru on August 20th 2020. https://cdn.www.gob.pe/uploads/ Ministry of Culture, Ministry Government of Peru, April 8,2020.https://www.gob.pe/institucion/cultura/noticias/112067- Joint Union Research Centre, European The Parliamentary Science Office of and Technology, UK parliament. https://post.parliament.uk/ Presidency of of Council the Ministers, Government of Peru, July 22,2020,https://cdn.www.gob.pe/uploads/ Presidency of of Council the Ministers, Government of Peru, July 22,2020,https://cdn.www.gob.pe/uploads/ , October 11,2019.https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/eur-scientific-, October , April 26,2020.https://www. 6 COVID-19: Understanding the Latin American Scenario

Silvana Lopez

he most accurate word to describe the current COVID-19 pandemic situation is uncertainty at all levels. There is perhaps no person or institution that can claim to have been fully prepared to face this crisis. From brick and mortar establishments to high- techT companies, COVID-19 has struck all, one way or another. Latin America is no exception. If anything, countries in the region have taken the COVID-19 punch hard as inequality is stronger and more visible than ever. People’s daily lives saw an immediate impact—they were no longer able to go out and buy groceries, to the bank, or for any other activity. Most Latin American countries are not yet fully digitalised, and do not have the infrastructure for the much-needed digital transformation. A significant number of people do not own smartphones or even have internet connectivity.1 Additionally, there is a sizeable vulnerable population that cannot read or write.2

Countries in the region were forced to react swiftly to the COVID-19 crisis. The initial months were of adaptation. People had to migrate their daily habits and chores to apps and tech platforms. Errands had to be digitalised, the elderly and other at-risk groups had to be taught to use smartphones and apps, and socialising had to come to a halt. But the financial sector is not wholly automated for essential services, creating further issues. Many banking activities still need to be done in person, as does the notarisation of official documents. 40 COVID-19: UNDERSTANDING THE LATIN AMERICAN SCENARIO the lockdownthe measures were adopted. little support from governments the or once industry enterprises hotels, (small hair salons, restaurants) had burden for some American Latin startups, non-tech and launch innovations, their may which lighten the communities with limited access to resources to develop Latino founders, Latino and black women, and other Although there on are encouraging funds focused several probably worst been hit. America’sLatin entrepreneurial ecosystems have pandemic has businesses impacted all and industries, countries with strong economies. While COVID-19 the Entrepreneurship is challenging and evenin uncertain, industries Entrepreneurship and vulnerable mitigation efforts. are far from considered being of as part solutions and at risk. Yet, further and solutions technology tech-based more dangerous by than virus the placing vulnerable the closing borders the and halting businesses may prove proper data analytics, keeping economies dormant, data analytics to arrive at sustainable solutions. Without Across region, the there is alack of using and technology mistakes fromseveral to which learn. mitigate risks of the unprecedented this crisis,there were as well. While governments were forced quickly to act to COVID-19 disrupted normal government functioning Alongside its impact on people and businesses, populationsGovernment and vulnerable have aprofound impact on businesses. such local work with banking to the sector create aplan that will of types entrepreneurshipthese alive, governments must Although some regional programmes on focus keeping loansseek once pandemic the hit. popular, with many reservations, business the had to and biodiverse tourism. Although concept the proved ‘Coffee Triangle’—an areaknown for its coffee growth entrepreneurs up set ‘glamping’ spots Colombian inthe across region. the For instance, earlier year, this young This situation is justbad as for most young businesses 3 treatments. centres are studying possible COVID-19 vaccines and instance, alarge number of doctors and investigation andmedical biotech innovation. In Colombia, for AmericanLatin countries are at also forefront the of comfortable homes. savings,monetary guaranteed access and to food sustainable, was tough for period without the those capacity and and policies enact strategies to make life quarantine allowed governments healthcare to boost plan for harsh the impacts of COVID-19. While the Many governments local had no or time resources to werefood not enough. Palliativesof survival. such as subsidies for and markets hard, leaving many families without any means Thequarantine strict measures impactedthe informal economy or health. or economy Governments were forced to make adifficult choice— and contributed 19percent to country’s the GDP. employment reached around 73percent in2019 of informal jobs.For instance, inPeru, informal American Latin countriesSeveral have rate ahigh enhanced cooperation and knowledge and sharing. skill American countries must join forces on front this for enhancing visibility global the of such innovation. Latin resources to invest inresearch and development, and the regionthe to work together. institutional instability insome countries. It is for time with its migration issues, and must work to address the economic activity to protect sector, the it must contend issues as well. It must role the recognise of informal restthe of world, the but it must confront its internal is America Latin facing atough time, like much of groups, and provide with them achance in life. system to make it accessible to most the vulnerable Now to time remodel is agood regional the education adapt. on, focus or will policies how systems health the will to predict what daily like, lives be what will government strongthe inequities countries, in these it is unrealistic COVID-19 find crisis, it anormal.new will givenYet, Although reeling is America Latin still from the The wayahead 5 But achallenge remains—securing greater 4 edu.co/lo-que-pasa-en-la-u/univalle-lidera-investigacaiones-sobre-el-covid-19 mentos_/economia-informal-en-peru/ www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/sg_policy_brief_covid_lac.pdf ma-principales-desafios May, 2014,https://www.cepal.org/es/publicaciones/36781-analfabetismo-funcional-america-latina-caribe-panora- co/2020/04/08/economia-y-finanzas/conectividad-la-otra-desigualdad-mas-evidente-con-la-pandemia/ 1 Endnotes 4 4 3 2 “Univalle liderainvestigaciones sobre el COVID-19”, Universidad La del Valle “Economía informal enPerú: situación yperspectivas”, actual , 2016,https://www.ceplan.gob.pe/docu CEPLAN - “Policy Brief: The Impact COVID-19of Latin Caribbean”,on America theand United Nations “El analfabetismo funcional Panorama Latina enAmérica yel Caribe: yprincipales depolítica”, desafíos CEPAL, “Conectividad: más otra evidente la desigualdad con pandemia”, la Forbes , April 8,2020,https://forbes. , April 15,2020https://www.univalle. , July, 2020,https:// 41 COVID-19: UNDERSTANDING THE LATIN AMERICAN SCENARIO 7 COVID-19: Lessons from the ‘Spanish Lifestyle’ Terminator

Miguel Otero-Iglesias and Ignacio Molina

OVID-19 has hit Spain particularly hard. The first wave of the virus, suffered in late winter and spring 2020, was one of the worst in the European Union (EU), requiring a strict stay- at-home lockdown of over 100 days between 15 March and 21C June. Banning mobility affected the Spanish economy since it is one of the most open countries in the world, receiving, on average, over 80 million visitors every year. Tourism accounts for 12 percent of GDP and 13 percent of employment. This structural factor partly explains the steep decline of 18.5 percent of GDP in the second quarter of 2020, way above the EU GDP, which contracted by “only” 11.7 percent.1

The situation remains dire. Annual GDP contraction2 for 2020 will be around 12 percent, the deepest since the Civil in the 1930s. The fiscal deficit will be north of 10 percent, and unemployment will be close to 20 percent. More worrying, the health situation is worsening, with the threat of a second wave at the end of the summer and beginning of autumn looming. At the end of August, with over 3000 new cases every day, Spain has the highest incidence of COVID-19 in Western Europe. Spain’s numbers are currently three times higher than those of Italy, which had a similar trajectory during the first wave. Spanish experts and researchers are still trying to explain why Spain is such an outlier in Europe and why there is such a difference with Italy, a similar country geographically and culturally. figures timethe at writing,of real impactofthedisease.Accordingtoofficial been viewedasmoreimportantfordeterminingthe number ofdeaths, a statistic that has understandably official informationalsoarisewhenoneturnstothe The questionsandlackofhomogeneityregarding in theory,problemsofundercountingareavoided. a populationmeasuredinbloodserum)where, 1000 people in most of its autonomous regions. 1000 peopleinmostofitsautonomousregions. Spain, whichstillhasrelativelylowratiosoftrackersper It appearsthatItalyhasbettertracingcapacitiesthan its stateofemergencytoimposetargetedlockdowns. hours. Italy has notallowedthatandmaintained mistake toopenbars,clubsanddiscothequesuntillate a nationalurgency.Inhindsight,itmighthavebeen in Juneforthesummerseasontoattracttouristswas contagion. Furthermore,quicklyopeningallbusinesses to those of the UK. to thoseoftheUK. Belgium andPeruinmortality,withsimilarnumbers been removed,Spainisrankedonlybehind population size,andoncemicro-countrieshave When therankingiscarriedoutrelativeto US, Brazil,Mexico,India,UK,ItalyandFrance). deaths (belowsevenmorepopulous countries—the in theworldtermsofabsolutenumber lifestyle, testing morethanItaly,butitcanalsobethattheSpanish There aremultiplepossiblefactors.PerhapsSpainis countries, Spain, According totheinformationreportedbyindividual Number ofcasesanddeaths studies intoseroprevalence in Europe,andthisisalsoconfirmedbythefirst is at the forefront of COVID-19 incidence, at least asymptomatic, therecanbelittledoubtthatSpain a considerableproportionofinfectedpatientsare counting difficultiesassociatedwithanillnesswhere by somecountriesandbecauseoftheobjective care, bothbecauseofthescanttransparencyshown is imperative to viewthese statistics withconsummate of absolutenumbercases,as4September.Whileit in termsofpopulation,currentlyranksninth 3 especially during the summer, is more prone to especially during the summer, is more prone to 4 the 30th largest country in the world the30thlargestcountryinworld 5 (level of a pathogen in (levelofapathogenin 6 Spain ranks eighth Spainrankseighth

(106 percent). Europe, includingMadrid(157percent)andCatalonia and themainglobalisedmetropolitanareasofWestern New York(withanexcessdeathrateof208percent) figures available,amongtheareasmostaffectedare It isnocoincidencethat,accordingtotheexcessdeaths the numberofcasesanddeaths? remains, whatarethereasonsforsuchahighrankingin excess deathsinWesternEurope. Figure 3).ThismeansthatSpaincurrentlyhasthemost the NationalStatisticsInstituteraisedto48,000(see Health Instituterecorded43,000excessdeaths,which In contrast, the monitoring system of the Carlos III 29,000 deathswere certified asowingto COVID-19. Spain, intheperiodfromMarchtoAugust2020,about historical trendsforthesameperiod.Inthiscase, the totaldeathsrecordedandthoseexpectedbasedon of taking,asaproxyindicator,thedifferencebetween alternative measurementtotheofficialfiguresconsists the internationalcomparisonofmortalityrates.An gathering informationcastdoubtsonthereliabilityof in As withthenumberofcases,difficulties inhabitants livein13percentofthecountry’sterritory. concentrations inWesternEurope;its47million networks. Spainhasoneofthelargesturbanpopulation occupied housing and congestedpublictransport large cities with significantforeign travelflows,densely outbreaks have occurred and greater transmission in densities andfewertravellinkstoterritorieswhere incidence ofthediseaseincountrieswithlowpopulation density andhighmobility.Thiswouldexplainthelower of thevirus,mostprominentbeingpopulation There arevariousfactorsthataccountforthespread Key contagionfactors involve contact between hands, faces and bodies. involve contactbetweenhands,facesandbodies. tendency towardsphysicalproximityandgreetingsthat intrusive). InotherssuchasSpain,however,thereisa metres (sincegettingcloserthanthisisconsideredas maintain an interpersonal distance of more than1.5 to formsofsocialisation.Somecountrieshabitually Another importantfactorseemstobeeverythingrelated spreading thediseasearoundcountry. with the rest ofSpain, which would have contributed to not onlyhighlyinterconnectedwiththeworld,butalso 9 Moreover, Madrid and Barcelona are Moreover, Madrid and Barcelona are 7 Hence, the question Hence,thequestion 8

43 COVID-19: LESSONS FROM THE ‘SPANISH LIFESTYLE’ TERMINATOR 44 COVID-19: LESSONS FROM THE ‘SPANISH LIFESTYLE’ TERMINATOR Figure 1.Difference and in between expected Spainrecorded deaths of masks and mobile phone applications have served as of masksandmobilephoneapplicationshaveservedas And whileculturalsocialdistancing,thewidespreaduse source ofthepandemic),hasrecordedveryfewdeaths. and greatinterconnectednesswithChina(theoriginal country intheworld,withahighpopulationdensity consistently confirmedelsewhere.Japan,themostaged countries withhighinfectionrates,butitisnot applicable toSpainandtheotherWesternEuropean conduct basedonphysicalproximity.Thispatternis and highlymobileinhabitants,exhibitingsocial are most aged, with large, densely populated urban areas Thus, thecountriesmostaffectedoughttobethosethat relative livesincarehomes. daily intergenerationalcontactprevails,evenifelderly aged countriesintheworld(seefigure2)whereclose puts Spain at a disadvantage since it is one of the most mortality rises steeply amongolder people. This factor infections amongchildrenandyoungpeople,but incidence ofCOVID-19.Notonlyaretherefewer The agedistributionisanotherdecisivefactorinthe (data 3July). collected Source: Daily Mortality Monitoring System (EuroMOMO), Carlos IIIInstitute of Health, of and Science Innovation Ministry 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000

01 January 800

08 January

15 January

22 January

Expected deaths (shaded areaExpected represents a99%confidence limit) 29 January

05 February

12 February

19 February

26 February

04 March

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25 March and, therefore, the Western European countries that and, therefore,theWesternEuropeancountriesthat deaths—as themainsupposedlyexplanatoryindicator tend to take the dependent variable—the number of an attempttomeasurenationalmanagementwill Without isolatingthestructuralcausessetoutabove, contributing to the spread and mortality of a virus. into accountthecomplexityofvariousfactors but thesehavebeensuperficialandfailedtotake having abearingontherateatwhichvirusspreads. volume andintensityofspeech(generallyhighinSpain) and mortalityduetogeneticsusceptibility,eventhe of virusstrains,thepossibilitygreaterpropagation conjectures suchastheclimate,pollution,diversity in mind.Theearliestscientificstudiesputforward that thereareadditionalelementsneedtobeborne protective measuresinEastAsiancountries,itislikely compare andevaluatecountries’managementefforts, capabilities. Therehavealready been some attemptsto of thepublichealthserviceandnationalhealthcare Among theseotherfactorsisthekeyissueofresponse 01 April

08 April

15 April

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06 May Recorded deaths

13 May

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17 June 11 10 policy andpatientcare. of thehealthcaresystem,bothintermspublichealth Nevertheless, COVID-19hasrevealedtheweaknesses beds isaroundtheOECDaverage(seefigure3). of nursingstaffandbeds,althoughthenumberICU it emergesbetterthaninothers,suchasthelownumber In someindicators,suchasmedicalstaffperinhabitant, occupy amidtohighpositionincomparativerankings. Great Recession,theSpanishhealthsystemcontinuesto Despite thefallinpublicspendingonhealthsince response Strengths and weaknesses of the Spanish these initialindices. Spain, ItalyandtheUK)appearinfinalplaces recorded themostdeathsinfirstwave(Belgium, 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 90-94 Figure 2.Demographic distribution inSpain and world the (2019) Source: United Nations Population Division. 100+ Age 0-4 10% 9% 8%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0% Percentage of total the population World large number of infections. large numberofinfections. protective equipmentforhealthworkers,whichledtoa may havedied),andthelackofadequatepersonal homes (whereapproximatelyhalfofCOVID-19victims of patientcare—thesorrysituationinmanyoldpeoples’ since 2017. Security Strategyhasbeenvainlywarningofthisthreat this nature,despitethefactthatcurrentNational resources toprevent,detectordealwithapandemicof SARS orMERS)hadneithertheexperiencenorenough (which, liketherestofEurope,hadnotsufferedeither with epidemics like thosealready known. But Spain offer primarycare,treatcommonillnessesanddeal to The systemisdesignedinarelativelyefficientway health professionals, culture amongthegeneralpublicandeven health, whichincludetheneedtoimprovehandwashing Spain 12 This highlights the shortcomings in public Thishighlightstheshortcomingsinpublic 13 and at least two striking aspects andatleasttwostrikingaspects 10% 45 COVID-19: LESSONS FROM THE ‘SPANISH LIFESTYLE’ TERMINATOR 46 COVID-19: LESSONS FROM THE ‘SPANISH LIFESTYLE’ TERMINATOR between the central government and the autonomous between thecentralgovernmentandautonomous a rangeofmanagerialfailingshasbeenidentified various agenciesand levels of administration. In Spain, among experts and decision-makers or among the in Europehasbeenalackofcoordination,whether In termsofgovernance,anotherwidespreadproblem shortage ofventilatorsandtestingunits. collection ofdata,includingtracingcapabilities,tothe this figureexplainstheshortcomings,rangingfrom one percentofthehealthbudget.Givenrecentevents, management ofthecrisis,currentlyaccountsforonly for HealthEmergenciesandAlerts,whichhasledthe health apparatus, including theCoordinationCentre lack of human and material resources.Thepublic the cutsinflictedonsystem, Numerous epidemiologistshavebeendenouncing Source: Containment: Beyond Health systems’ responses to COVID-19 OECD, in the OECD. Figure 3.Medical staffpopulation per and beds ICU (most recent year available) ICU beds per 100,000 inhabitants 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 5 20 S. Korea Poland Mexico Japan 25 30354045 Chile 14 and the consequent andtheconsequent US Belgium Medicalper 10,000inhabitants staff Norway it was one of the strictest in Europe (and therefore it wasoneofthestrictestinEurope(andtherefore and civicresponsibility,particularlyconsideringthat The Spanishpublichasdisplayedremarkablediscipline infection curveduringthelockdownisundeniable. 4 and5)aswelltheireffectivenessinflatteningthe with thequarantineanduseofmasks(seefigures lockdown inMarch,thestrictdegreeofcompliance imposing restrictionsonmobilityandannouncingthe Leaving asidethedebateaboutpossibledelayin capability fordealingwiththehealthcrisis. as strengthssincetheyhaveaidedSpain’sresponse On theotherhand,certaincircumstancescanbeviewed Network ofPublicHealthSurveillance. and homogeneous data identified by the National communities (regions),includingthelackofreliable France N. Zealand Australia OCDE AverageOCDE Netherlands Spain Denmark Italy Germany Switzerland

Source: YouGov (data 3July). accessed Source: Mobility trend reports from Apple reportsthe reflect (these requests for map directions on Apple devices). 13-19 January=100 Figure 5.People stating that wear they masks inpublic places Figure 4.Evolution of mobility personal 100% 100 120 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 20 40 60 80 0% 0 9‐15 Mar 13-19 Jan 16‐22 Mar 20-26 Jan 23‐29 Mar -2 Feb 27 Jan 30 Mar -5 Apr Feb 3-9 6‐12 Apr 13‐19 10-16 Apr Feb 20‐26 Apr 17-23 Feb -3 May 27 Apr -1 Mar 24 Feb 4‐10 May Mar 11‐17 2-8 May 18‐24 May 9-15 Mar 25‐31 May 16-22 Mar Jun 1‐7 23-29 Mar 8‐14 Jun 30 Mar -5 Apr 15‐21 Jun 22‐28 Jun 6-12 Apr UK Italy France UK US KongHong S. Korea Germany Japan Spain Germany US France Italy China Spain 47 COVID-19: LESSONS FROM THE ‘SPANISH LIFESTYLE’ TERMINATOR 48 COVID-19: LESSONS FROM THE ‘SPANISH LIFESTYLE’ TERMINATOR Figure (blue) cases 6:Covid-19 and deaths (red) inSpain speed internetconnectivitythatthecountryhas. good” lockdown,partlythankstotheexcellenthigh- they wereexperiencinga“verygood”or“reasonably “necessary” or“verynecessary”,while91percentstated viewed themeasurestakentocombatpandemicas surveyed in April, when the lockdown wasat its strictest, holidays areover.About97percentoftheSpanishpublic not beabletomaintainsocialdistancingagainafterthe months does not mean that the Spanish population will This secondwaveofcontagionduringthesummer deaths (seefigure6). July, evenifithasonlybroughtaminorincreaseofdaily is experiencing a strong rebound in cases since early discipline isbeinglostduringthesummer,andSpain not withoutcontroversy).Unfortunately,someofthis Deaths Cases requires it,returningtolockdown. measures andeven,iftheepidemiologicalsituation attitude isimportantformaintainingsocialdistancing 10000 14 March 1000 2000 4000 6000 8000 Source: El Confidencial with dataSource: from Confidencial El Government of Spain https://www.elconfidencial.com/ 800 600 400 200 0 27 April 15 This This 11 June its internal capability to manage pandemics. Apart from its internalcapabilitytomanagepandemics.Apartfrom many othercountries,mustworkhardonimproving The impactofCOVID-19hasshownthatSpain,like What todonext cushion the severity of the economic crisis. cushion theseverityofeconomiccrisis. and guaranteealoansprogrammeforenterprisesto fund amassiveshort-termworkprogrammeforworkers prolonged way.TheSpanish state hasalsobeenableto state ofalarmappliedforthefirsttimeinageneraland work ,withacertaindegreeofimprovisation,tothe professionalism, provingcapableofadaptingtheir and otherpublicemployeeshaveshownexemplary the country.Ingeneral,therehasbeenmedicalstaff public servicesdidnotbreakdowninotherpartsof Spain’s deathsoccurred,thehealthsystemandother overwhelmed inMadridandBarcelona,wherehalfof and themannerinwhichsomehospitalswere Despite thestressfulsituationsthathavebeenendured 23 July 07 Sept • • the followingissues: the futureshould,therefore,involvepayingattentionto public themselves.Learningthelessonsofthiscrisisfor bear thebruntofresponsibility)butalsomembers including notonlypublicauthorities(whichnaturally lack ofpreparationtheStateitselfhasbeenrevealed, government ataparticularmomentintime.Instead,the last 100 years, are not really the fault of an individual given thatwearefacingthegreatestpandemicof constituted afailureandforothersareunderstandable errors offorecastingandreaction,whichforsomehave accountability that is the hallmark of a democracy, the the specificmistakes,whicharesubjecttohealthy • • app government hasjustlaunchedaCOVID-19tracing inclusion ofappsandbigdatatools).TheSpanish instruments, bothtraditionalandmodern(withthe Detection andthebroadeningoftracing handwashing and schoolsettings,personalprotection relating tosocialdistancinginthesocial,work Prevention, involvingdifficultculturalshifts of less advantaged families (who have suffered of lessadvantagedfamilies(whohavesuffered emphasis ontheelderly,butalsochildren The protection of vulnerable groups, with special they giverisetocommunityinfection possible, geographicallyselective,lockdownsif Isolation protocolsfordiagnosed cases and 16 • • • • • • • pharmacological supplies, Strategic productionandstocksofhealth epidemics system, whichisatthefrontlineincontaining care andhospitals,butalsothepublichealth The healthcare response, strengthening primary lacking decenthousing considerably withthelockdown)andimmigrants and monetary) Effective useofEUmacroeconomictools(fiscal government andtheautonomouscommunities Better jointgovernancebetweenthecentral graphic information messages andtheuseofcontrolpanels,maps formats withthepublic,incorporating clear The improvementof(visual)communication into vaccinesandtreatments knowledge economy into amoredigitised,greener,inclusiveand Using thiscrisisasanopportunitytotransform poor householdsisnotwidenedfurther opportunities gapbetweenchildrenfromrichand safety protocols so that the knowledge and Assure thatschoolingisresumedwithCOVID-19 past crisisofstartingausteritypoliciestoosoon vulnerable, withoutfallingintothemistakeof as muchpossible,especiallyforthemost 18 to cushion the economic impact to cushion the economic impact 19

17 including research includingresearch 49 COVID-19: LESSONS FROM THE ‘SPANISH LIFESTYLE’ TERMINATOR 50 COVID-19: LESSONS FROM THE ‘SPANISH LIFESTYLE’ TERMINATOR Control, https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/COVID-19.html https://www.ft.com/content/4e3e3e31-87ed-4631-af62-c649efb854ed https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938 coronavirus/? areas/analisis-economi/analisis-economi/proyecciones-mac/Proyecciones_macroeconomicas.html eurostat/documents/2995521/10545332/2-14082020-AP-EN.pdf/7f30c3cf-b2c9-98ad-3451-17fed0230b57 1 Endnotes 12 11 10 https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938 9 September 4,2020,https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20200904/densidad-poblacion-espana-coronavirus/2041212.shtml 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 quality-of-oecd-countries-response-to-the-pandemic/ all?”, others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all# www.dsn.gob.es/es/estrategias-publicaciones/estrategias/estrategia-seguridad-nacional-2017 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext seroepidemiological study”,Lancet The 396(10250): 535-544(2020), “Coronavirus tracked: latest the figures as countries fight Covid-19 resurgence”, Financial Times and “Reported Deaths Cases by Country, Territory, or Conveyance”, Worldometers, https://www.worldometers.info/ “Macroeconomic Projections for Spanish the Economy (2020-2022)”, Banco de España, https://www.bde.es/bde/en/ “GDP down by 12.1%and employment down by euro 2.8%inthe area”, Eurostat “Coronavirus tracked: latest the figures as countries fight Covid-19 resurgence”, Financial Times Esteban Ramón, “La anomalía española: combatir covid-19 la con ‘mayor la densidad de población’ de Europa”, “Covid-19 Overview. Global Distribution of cumulative confirmedcases”, EuropeanCentre forPrevention Disease and Daniel Dombey, “Socialising pushes Spain´s rate Covid-19 far above rest of Europe”, Financial Times “Quality of OECD countries´ response to pandemic”, the The Economist Intelligence Unit, https://www.eiu.com/n/ Kai Kupferschmidt, “Why dosome COVID-19 patients many infect others, whereas most don´t spread at virus the Marina Pollán etal., “Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 inSpain (ENE-COVID): anationwide, population-based Department of Homeland Security, Government of Spain, “National Strategy 2017”, Security 2017,https:// December Science , May 19,2020,https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many- , August 14,2020,https://ec.europa.eu/ , September 2, 2020, , September 2,2020, , September 2, 2020, , September 2,2020, , August 21,2020, RTVE , fastest,access%20to%20ultra%2Dfast%20broadband. https://news.itu.int/spain-case-study-super-fast-broadband/#:~:text=Spain%20has%20been%20the%20 spains-pm-wants-you-to-download August 29, 2020, https://www.thelocal.es/20200826/what-you-need-to-know-about-radar-covid-the-tracing-app- health_sovereignty_how_to_build_a_resilient_european_response_to_pandemics Response to Pandemics, European Council on Foreign Relations, 2020,https://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/ espana elcano_es/publicaciones/informe-elcano-28-recuperacion-o-metamorfosis-plan-transformacion-economica-para- http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_es/publicacion?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/ económica para España 15 14 13 19 18 17 16 publications/policy-briefs/new-policy-toolkit-needed-countries-exit-covid-19-lockdowns COVID-19 Lockdowns, Washington Peterson DC, Institute for International Economics, 2020,https://www.piie.com/ Patterns_on_the_COVID-19_Outbreak_Magnitude https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340050986_The_Impact_of_Cross-Cultural_Differences_in_Handwashing_ Outbreak Magnitude”, preprint (2020), salud/2020/04/08/5e8cd62421efa0e8588b45f5.html with epidemiologist(interview Miquel Porta), Mundo, El April 9,2020,https://www.elmundo.es/ciencia-y-salud/ Olivier Blanchard, Thomas Philippon and Jean Pisani-Ferry, ANew Policy Toolkit Is Needed asCountries Exit Ganna Pogrebna Impact et al., “The of Cross-Cultural Differences in Hand washing Patterns the on COVID-19 Federico Steinberg, Miguel Otero Iglesias and Enrique Feás, ¿Recuperación ometamorfosis? Un plan de transformación Enrique Medina, “Why Spain study is acase for super-fast broadband: Telefónica”, ITUNews, November 27,2017, Fiona Govan, “Radar What Covid: you to need know about app the Spain says you ´must´ download”,Local The Jonathan Hackenbroich, Jeremy Shapiro and Tara Varma, Health Sovereignty: How to Build aResilient European Irene Hernández, “Esta instrumentalizando está pandemia se políticamente, especialmente enCataluña” , Madrid, Instituto Real Elcano, 2020, , 51 COVID-19: LESSONS FROM THE ‘SPANISH LIFESTYLE’ TERMINATOR 8 A Very British Disaster (and Collective Denial)

Sridhar Venkatapuram

o be ranked among the top 20 countries in the world is usually a cause for celebration, but not when it is a ranking of the 20 countries worst affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. As of early September, the United Kingdom—made up of the four nations ofT England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland—has 347,152 identified cases, with 41,552 confirmed COVID-19 related deaths.1 About 89 percent of these deaths have occurred in England.2

That the UK, and the US, are among the worst-hit countries is shocking to their citizens and global health experts. The UK was ranked second (with a score of 77.9 out of 100), after the US (83.5 out of 100), in the 2019 Global Index jointly developed by the Nuclear Threat Initiative, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and the Economist Intelligence Unit.3 In light of the catastrophic experience of both countries, the makers of the index clarified in mid-April that all countries were low performers across all their indicators, so even the highest-ranked countries were actually poorly prepared.4 It remains unclear why the three institutions proceeded with the index and to rank countries if the highest score of 83.5 out of 100 still meant that the country was not adequately prepared for a globally catastrophic biological risk. Clearly, the metrics and aims for index need a re-think.

The numbers

In contrast to the metrics of pandemic preparedness plans and other health security indexes, there are some numbers that reveal truths that are not ‘social determinants of health.’ implemented—mortalitybeing and morbidity from the consequences of pandemic the and that policies the are deaths and other from illnesses economic the and social monthsthe And,ahead. importantly, be also there will 1,445 people died. on 8April occurred in asingle day (peak) 2020,when days of testing positive.greatest The number of deaths is only 41,552,which includes within 28 died who those sources, official the numberdeaths of due to COVID-19 fungible, such as deaths. According to UKgovernment all too visible. too all For instance, as pandemic initial policies smoothly and seamlessly, them between with frictions organisations and authorities the did not work together city government authorities.because This differentis Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales and to local centrethe and from devolved the governments in much about governance the structures UKat inthe pandemicThetaught also has citizensordinary international organisations. countries as well as incountries far away and inside significantlybe affected what by happens in European have that learned and health their still wellbeing will formally withdrawing from EU, the people UK in the Brexit celebrations and meetings. Nevertheless, despite about imminent the threat as he was more on focused have stated that Johnson disregarded warnings initial from EU, the epidemic the arrived UK.Some inthe other Brexiters planned to celebrate withdrawal the Yet, just Prime when Minister Johnson Boris and down from above on central the government in London. andexternal foreign government structure pushing headquartered inBrussels, or what like an seemed about wrenching from free European the Union (EU) at and federal the other levels. To some, Brexit was people residing UKabout inthe diverse the institutions pandemicThis has providededucation a real for politics The world. is among countries with highest the death tolls inthe statistics one to use, chooses what is clear is that UK the or indirectly caused, and whichever kinds of death or indirectly due to COVID-19. Whether directly outside hospitals, with or without tests, and directly numberthis includes also deaths that have occurred the start of start the UKepidemic. the what was average from previous years) since occurred that about 65,700excess deaths (deaths that are above 7 There likelybe will wavesother of infections in 5 However, another calculation is 6 8 Based on death Based records, school plans. school their roles.their of and chief the medical scientific out officers tocarry SAGEwhether was fit for thecapacitiesandits purpose, (Labour). made up with main the people aligned opposition party welcomed, that there aview group the is also is mostly outside andof of expertise experts government has been from COVID-19 the crisis.” how to deaths minimise and support Britain’s recovery “provide advice to UKgovernment the and public on independent group of scientists working together to Brown, up set an group Independent called SAGE, an to former prime ministers Tony Blair and Gordon Sir David King, aformer chief scientific advisor Johnson’s hospitalisation and recovery from COVID-19, pursuedbeing and unclear the leadership during In response to SAGE the membership issue, policies the and roll-out of testing, stay-at-home orders self-isolating, planning while poor week—his advisor political onenew not every following work, Johnson facing has regular almost been a crises, Since recovering from COVID-19 and returning to of only by science. were likely influenced political considerationsby instead advisors to prime the minister, meaning that discussions and second, group the expertise; included political first,there lack a was indeed of sufficient health public the group’sthe membership wasthrough to revealed aleak any or sufficient on publichealth expertise SAGE. When immediately raising questions over there whether was keen to pursue of achieving ‘herd a policy ,’ prime minister. Johnson and his advisors were initially for England, in turn who recommend to policies the chiefthe scientific advisor theand chief officer medical to evaluate latest the data and recommend to policies Emergencies (SAGE).group This is meantof experts membershipthe of Scientific the GroupAdvisory for were announced, there was no transparency about March, lockdown with afull going into actionover 20 The UK’s first deathCOVID-19 was 5 confirmed on The money homes, minority population ethnic groups. number of COVID-19 related deaths among Black and group initially highlighted was disproportionate 16 physical distancing guidelines, 13 10

18 newspaper, two clear— things became

9 This raised public questions over 15 high mortality rates high incare 11 One of issues the that the 12 While source this 17 and return to 53 A VERY BRITISH DISASTER (AND COLLECTIVE DENIAL) 54 A VERY BRITISH DISASTER (AND COLLECTIVE DENIAL) of its COVID-19 response. over £175billion as immediate stimulus fiscal part as February. UKhas the committed Overall, to spending chancellor the became who of exchequer the on 13 UK economythe handslie in the of Rishi Sunak, Hopes for arevival of businesses, and small big, and needed. to continue expected be will to step in as and when to normal is unlikely any and soon, time government the time. UK government debt above for £2trillion first the Moreover, COVID-19spending has fiscal pushedthe atypicaland of very Party. Conservative the spending since March is greatest the since World War II, that retained employees. The amount of government below £500,000, cuts to VAT, and bonuses to businesses was announced, including apause on property sales out of work. In July, £30billion programme a further for businesses and wage subsidies for people currently after, he £330 announcedfurther billion in a support counter economic the impact of pandemic. the Soon of a£30billion package, £12billion of was which to intervention was announcement the on 11March for asecond wave of infections autumn. inthe by 20percent and lost. 275,000jobshad been is estimated that by end the of June, GDP had plunged including tourism, hospitality, and arts entertainment. It involved physical human contact suffered enormously, consequently, suffer heavy losses. Anysectorthat implicationthe was to stop functioning entirely and, home—such as manufacturing, education and sports— thatactivities could not have employees work from most notably economic activity. For businesses and came functioning also to ahalt, ofother social aspects While intervention this aimed to protect public health, vulnerable people, and to and from essential work. limited exercise, care, medical to seek to care take of homes only for suchactivities as essential shopping, transmission of People disease. the could leave their weeks. The stay-at-home orders aimed to reduce days later (on 26March) of initially for three aperiod The people people The recovery and by renewal—guided a framework based phases of panic, response, discovery/denial, adaptation, By mapping pandemic the journey—along with the 21 Sunak has already indicated that he is planning

20 Sunak’s firsteconomic 19 22

Areturn COVID, and suffering its many consequences. there heightened is still fear of becoming with infected totimes prevail. However, spectrum, across social the stay at home, continue to shop online and wait for safer worktheir have to risk. While the take others can who of start the with pandemic, little the those choice about work and spendmoney to restart economy. the As from wants to them adapt again by going back into world the to primarily adapted. The problemthat is the government jobs and have had to rely on government assistance have have working been at home or that those have lost their youth, and consequently who politics. their Those also economicthe and psychological wellbeing of UK’s the Thelack jobsof and recessionwill profoundly affect affect transformand politicsthe UK in years to come. people are answering questions these undoubtedly will treatedbeing fairly and justly during crisis?How this doing what it is supposed to? Am I, my family and friends the government—isthe government the trustworthy? to reflectmade ittheir on necessary relationship with crisis. For individual and family, every situation the has apolitical, economic parts equal also and psychological it becomes clear that is this not just crisis. Ita health is responded, rather than at politicians that and experts, It is by looking at how average UKresidents have hopefully, become available. become abiggerwill problem avaccine when does, aresaid they against using aCOVID-19 vaccine, which its multiple Some groups aspects. of people have also andbelieve propagate various conspiracy about theories of deny people still who that there is apandemic, and However, like inmost other countries, there are groups protecting vulnerable the at home, or wearing masks. behavioural adjustments, it whether is staying indoors, that containing spread the of infection the requires Most UKcitizens and residents have understood pandemic. for healthcare workers were who on frontlines the of the quick to show public their and collective appreciation People quickly understood crisis and health the were onlythe sound streets inthe was from ambulances. storeshome. grocery ran Soon, and out goods, of dry hospitals of and coffins, lorries full brought the message shocking the particularly imagesexperience, of crowded to understand of severity the threat. the But Italy’s COVID-19. worldthe how to see people have reacting to been on established theory, academic one can across look 23 In UK,people the initially were unable 25

24 Is it it Is sage/ revealed-every-measure-britains-response-covid-pandemic-has/ Has Been Woeful.” 4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938 Covid-19 Resurgence:FreetoRead.”Financial Times, September2,2020.https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7- Harlow, DavidBlood,AlanSmith,andAdrienneKlasa.“CoronavirusTracked:theLatestFiguresasCountriesFight day-uk-ministers-accused-downplaying-covid-19-peak Covid-19 Peak.”TheGuardian,June19,2020.https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/19/over-1000-deaths- https://www.ghsindex.org/news/the-us-and-covid-19-leading-the-world-by-ghs-index-score-not-by-response/ coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ 1 Endnotes 11 10 for-covid-19 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/revealed-dominic-cummings-on-secret-scientific-advisory-group- “Revealed: DominicCummingsonSecretScientificAdvisoryGroupforCovid-19.”TheGuardian,April24,2020. 9 journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30940-5/fulltext 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 secret-former-chief-adviser-says Science, May11,2020.https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/uk-government-should-not-keep-scientific-advice- Cross, Ghaith Aljayyoussi; Kate. “Revealed: How, on Every Measure, Britain’s Response to the Covid Pandemic Cross,GhaithAljayyoussi;Kate.“Revealed:How,onEveryMeasure,Britain’sResponsetotheCovidPandemic CaleTilford,MartinStabe,StevenBernard,AleksandraWisniewska,JoannaSKao,JohnBurn-Murdoch,Max RobertBooth,andPamelaDuncan.“Nearly1,500DeathsinOneDay:UKMinistersAccusedofDownplaying “TheU.S.andCOVID-19:LeadingtheWorldbyGHSIndexScore,NotResponse.”Index,April27,2020. “TheGlobalHealthSecurityIndex.”GHSIndex,October,2019.https://www.ghsindex.org/ UKCOVID-19Statistics,https://coronavstats.co.uk/ PublicHealthEnglandandNHSX.Coronavirus(COVID-19)intheUK.England,2020.https:// Severin Carrell, David Pegg, Felicity Lawrence, Paul Lewis, Rob Evans, David Conn, Harry Davies, and Kate Proctor. SeverinCarrell,DavidPegg,FelicityLawrence,PaulLewis,RobEvans,Conn,HarryDavies,andKateProctor. Michael Marmot, “Societyandthe Slow Burn of Inequality”, Kupferschmidt Kai, “U.K. Government Should Not Keep Scientific Advice Secret, Former Chief Adviser Says.” Kupferschmidt Kai, “U.K. Government Should Not Keep Scientific Advice Secret, Former Chief Adviser Says.” “What isIndependentSage?”, Sage, August3,2020.https://www.independentsage.org/independent- The Telegraph, August 30, 2020. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/ , May 2, 2020. https://www.thelancet.com/ 55 A VERY BRITISH DISASTER (AND COLLECTIVE DENIAL) 56 A VERY BRITISH DISASTER (AND COLLECTIVE DENIAL)

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8286797/GUY-ADAMS-Ex-science-tsar-Sir-David-King-told-switch-diesel.html www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/10/governments-cowardly-u-turn-schools-fiasco/ www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/05/23/did-dominic-cummings-break-lockdown-rules1/ www.bruegel.org/publications/datasets/covid-national-dataset/ Catarina Midões.“TheFiscalResponsetotheEconomicFalloutfromCoronavirus.”Bruegel,August5,2020,https:// 1-metre-plus-coronavirus June 23, 2020. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/23/boris-johnson-ditches-2-metre-rule-in-england-for- 15 14 13 12 25 24 bbc.co.uk/news/stories-53267505 Lucy Burns,“ElisabethKübler-Ross:TheRiseandFalloftheFiveStages ofGrief.”BBCNews,July2,2020,https://www. 23 https://www.ft.com/content/dc9df18e-c4bd-4f40-9827-3c6caa19a913 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 action/ impact-of-covid-19-in-black-and-minority-ethnic-populations-review-of-the-evidence-and-recommendations-for- recommendations foraction”,Independent Sage, July3,2020,https://www.independentsage.org/disparities-in-the- https://www.ft.com/content/c8ef84bf-0539-4281-b353-d5b840d10b5e Delphine Strauss,“UKShedsNearly750,000JobsduringCoronavirusCrisis.”FinancialTimes,August11,2020, job-losses-the-latest-data-on-redundancies-and-furloughs and Furloughs.” The Guardian, August 18, 2020. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/31/uk-coronavirus- June 19,2020,https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/06/19/1004190/uk-covid-contact-tracing-app-fiasco/ exceeds-2-trillion-pounds-for-first-time Time”, https://inews.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-latest-care-home-deaths-uk-kept-secret-cqc-care-inspectorate-612370. fear-catching-covid-19 “Disparities in the impact of Covid-19 in black and minority ethnic populations: review of the evidence and “DisparitiesintheimpactofCovid-19blackandminorityethnicpopulations:reviewevidence “Truth AboutCoronavirus”,McCannWorldgroup,2020.https://truthaboutcoronavirus.mccannworldgroup.com/p/1 Julia Anderson, Enrico Bergamini, Sybrand Brekelmans, Aliénor Cameron, Zsolt Darvas, Marta Domínguez Jíménez, Julia Anderson,EnricoBergamini,SybrandBrekelmans,AliénorCameron,ZsoltDarvas,MartaDomínguezJíménez, “COVID-19 Fears.” “Government Approval”YouGovhttps://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/government-approval Antonio Voce, Ashley Kirk, and Richard Partington. “UK Coronavirus Job Losses: the Latest Data on Redundancies Antonio Voce,AshleyKirk,andRichardPartington.“UKCoronavirusJobLosses:theLatestDataonRedundancies James Ball,“TheUK’sContactTracingAppFiascoIsaMasterClassinMismanagement”,MITTechnologyReview, Steve Bird,“DidDominicCummingsActuallyBreakAnyLockdownRules?”TheTelegraph,May23,2020,https:// Guy Adams,“Ex-ScienceTsarSirDavidKingToldUstoSwitchDiesel.”DailyMail,May5,2020,https://www. Toby Young,“TheGovernment’sCowardlyU-TurnonSchoolsIsaFiasco.”TheTelegraph,June10,2020,https:// Andrew Atkinson, David Goodman, and Alex Morales, “U.K. Government Debt Tops 2 Trillion Pounds for First Andrew Atkinson,DavidGoodman,andAlexMorales,“U.K.GovernmentDebtTops2TrillionPoundsforFirst , August 27, 2020, Katie Grant,“CareHomeCoronavirusDeaths‘BeingKeptSecrettoProtectProviders’.”inews,August27,2020, Heather Stewart,“BorisJohnsonDitches2mPhysicalDistancingRuleinEnglandfor‘1m-plus’.”TheGuardian, , August 11, 2020, George Parker,“SunakWeighsDelayingAutumnBudgetonSecond CovidWave”,FinancialTimes,August11,2020, Bloomberg, August 21, 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-21/u-k-government-debt- YouGov, March 17, 2020. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/international/articles-reports/2020/03/17/ 9 Public Policy Lessons from Pakistan’s Experience with COVID-19

Saba Shahid

he first case of COVID-19 in Pakistan was announced on 26 February, and an initial lockdown was imposed around a month later on 24 March. The pandemic ‘arrived’ relatively later in Pakistan compared to countries like China, Italy and the US, givingT the Pakistani leadership time to prepare and develop a plan to manage the public health crisis. However, because COVID-19 is a new disease and much about which is yet unknown, the policy decisions associated with managing the pandemic are characterised by uncertainty. From the genetic and chemical make-up of the virus, to the treatment drugs and isolation requirements of the disease, a plethora of public policy challenges have emerged.

Many governments responded to the crisis by imposing strict economic lockdowns, forcing many sectors to ‘work from home’. However, for developing countries like Pakistan, curbing the spread of the disease by locking down certain sectors has come at the huge cost of people’s welfare. Around 71 percent of the country’s non-agriculture employment is in the informal sector, where the workforce is largely un-documented, depends on daily wages and has low levels of social security coverage. The leadership faced a difficult trade-off—imposing economic lockdowns to reduce the disease burden associated with COVID-19, or keeping the economy open to avoid ‘death by poverty’ but risking an already strained health sector. Consequently, Pakistani decision-makers faced an overly complex and interconnected web of economic and social welfare policy challenges. Several public policy lessons have emerged over the past six months, which can be summarised into five main observations: 58 PUBLIC POLICY LESSONS FROM PAKISTAN’S EXPERIENCE WITH COVID-19 informed policies based on localised data. oninformed localised based policies centre-provincial coordination helped in implementing hotspots, and effective (althoughsomewhat delayed) lockdowns inneighbourhoods marked as infection pandemic hit first, administrators imposed ‘smart’ how was managed disease the incountries where the toled adecline in numbers. Doctors paid attention to Yet, officialsclaim that relying on data—and alone—data to decline, with many terming it a“mystery” or “secret” day. By early July, country’s the began COVID-19 curve Pakistan’s at peaked over COVID-19 a 6,800cases curve and myths associated with infection). the By 14 June, was (which largely disease the aresult of people from turning to quick-fix herbal remedies treatto distancing and working from home, and to dissuade assuage public confusion over strategies such as social world.the In Pakistan too, to decision-makers struggled pandemic, announcement inMarch that COVID-19 was a Following World the Health Organization’s paramount to saving lives is making policy and evidence-based COVID-19 is steep; relying on data for curve learning 1: The Lesson landscape. The country’spolitical leadership has found impulsive, correlated closely to country’s the political Pakistan’s with decentralisation experience has been bottom-up policymaking framework’‘integrated of top-down and on an must based 2:Decisions be Lesson conditions impact acountry’s all public situation. health urban development, housing and environmental analytical process—waterthe and sanitation conditions, from interrelated development sectors is included in acknowledgedbe where sustained investments indata holistic form of public management health to needs of medicine. clinical Thiscalls for a broader and more musthealth understood beyond limited be the scope demographic trajectories. Moreover, data for public statistical databases that are up-to-date and can predict framework. Public require policies health dependable making must at be core the of any public policy it disease, the shows decision- that evidence-based temporary relief, given unpredictable the nature of Although decline the innumbers could only a be 1 hysteria and panic spread like wildfire across 3 2 . and healthcare primary workers. leaders such as teachers, religious elders clerics,village invest development skills inthe community of local change that COVID-19 requires, government the must Furthermore, to facilitate process the of behavioural knowledge about communities the inhabit. they unique possess insight as they of and policymaking level stakeholders are included phase design inthe conditionssocio-cultural These necessitatethat local- public policies. departments strengthens enforcement the process of Similarly, horizontal cooperation across government province over its independent public strategy. health tension that resulted Centre the between and Sindh the authorities could have, for instance, avoided initial the in Pakistan. Vertical cooperation state the between achallengehas been for management the of COVID-19 process help can also establish consensus, political which for suited locally remedies” understood. can be whereby “a more accurate picture economy of local the fertilization” of macro, level and theories, meso local bottom up Such policies. an approach allows for a“cross an “integrated” approach that merges top-down and demandsat level. policymaking Effective local the government, allows which for adifferentiated response constant coordination different the between tiers of Governance for state afederal like Pakistan demands pandemic. data encouraged many to even deny presence the of the government coupled with little exposure to scientific guidelines. Moreover, a culture of inthe disbelief unable to follow physical distancing and quarantine wagers and located in crowded housing conditions were otherOn the hand, communities associated with daily- wearing facemasks and self-isolating of incase infection. government standardised operating procedures such as communities voluntarily staying home and following Similarly, public responses with varied wealthier areas, making it an extensively ‘urban phenomenon’. For one, hotspots disease emerged inlarge metropolitan level, for resulted experiences varied COVID-19. invery as geography, language, ethnicity, income and education diversehighly population, differentiated by factors such more pronounced with onset the of COVID-19, where a demands atlevel.’ ‘local the even became setbacks These toled public that policies didnot reflect development governance structure to that of its climate, political which it difficult to divorce the administrativemake-up of its 4 Such a Assembly inFebruary 2015, goals through aresolution by passed National the worldthe to adopt UN’s the sustainable development Furthermore, Pakistan was one of first the countries in race for ratings best among channels and of Lack public confidence are issuesthe most faced institutions”. crucial these by Federalbetween & Provincial Government, awareness among people, unstable environment political incountry, Political pressure, a2015study or police. the judiciary Likewise the on citizen’s confidence in public institutions foundthat “lack of coordination in livelihoods. livelihoods. in reduce vulnerability and to lead sustained improvements relief to its people by investing inprogrammes that Pakistan must proceed beyond providing immediate cultural, economic and advancement. political Therefore, is afundamentalsecurity prerequisite to any socio- COVID-19The pandemic has reinforcedthat health manner. advocates universal coverage health inan equitable to uphold and health 3(good goal wellbeing), which to financial alleviate the burden of healthcareservices. ‘ of great value. political on healthcare and, as aresult, leave alegacy behind become heroes” “health by increasing public spending healthcare systems. Analysts insist that leaderscould there is greater awareness about necessity the of robust beyond electoral their term. Yet, of because COVID-19, andhealth education sectors yield long-term results capital development through public spending on the outcomes. other Onthe hand, investing inhuman ‘visible’ development projects have political higher countries like Pakistan often find that short-term, governance Political inertia. leaders inmiddle-income reforms that were previously inhibited by unproductive with aunique opportunity to conduct policy radical COVID-19The pandemic has presented leaders programmes through sector sustainable health public 3:InvestLesson intheneglected b a infrastructure” “to need highlighted the on focus building our medical Prime Minister Imran repeatedly Khan has who also focus onfocus building that our so infrastructure we medical are prepared for any such emergency situation future.” inthe gonehas also on record to say, the need pandemicof a has exposed much-needed “The revampsector. the in medical “We have to Sehat Sahulat’ Sehat At ameeting of Standing the Committee on Scientific and Cooperation Technological in Islamabad, Prime Minister ImranKhan A2011study by Gallup indicated low public confidence levels in nationalkey institutions suchthe as national government, (health facilitation) (health programme that aims a and has who rigorously promoted his 5 Included endeavour in this is 7 including commitment the 6

leadership’s approach as “confused” or “indecisive”, pandemic. By May, many the labelled headlines news authorities and ability their to manage spread the of the Pakistan, public sentiment of government grewweary As number the of COVID-19 increased in cases instrumental effective government is messaging 4:Publicengagement Lesson through authorities. authorities. to chronic the distrust and low confidence in public develop programmes that as corrective act measures to need engage parties political with communities and institutions arecent has been pattern. studies indicateparty; little public inkey national trust government inthe trust is not unique to current the ruling misinformation to spread uncontrollably. Low public tiers, gave space to chaotic public debates and allowed across federating the units and at various government The leadership’s inability to deliver aunified response, importance the been of effective public messaging. adherence to public an policies, important lesson has requireswhich visible behavioural changes and mass Nonetheless, for emergency ahealth like COVID-19, infographics. messages, advertisements radioand and TV newspaper prevention through automated ringtone recordings, text employed was to launch informational campaigns about role to play. One of first the responsesthe government approach and evidence-based focused had asignificant decline,this government representatives insist that a Although various factors are considered being to explain decline and number the of fell cases exponentially. pandemic,the charts the beganto indicate agradual was considered being one of worst the hit countries by public management. health However, just as Pakistan controversyto enter fuelled further country the over border with Iran open and allow religious pilgrims apparent.crisis became The decision theto keep Taftan absencethe of aunified response the to public health b,9 Therefore, Therefore, 8 and and 59 PUBLIC POLICY LESSONS FROM PAKISTAN’S EXPERIENCE WITH COVID-19 60 PUBLIC POLICY LESSONS FROM PAKISTAN’S EXPERIENCE WITH COVID-19 and compliance. promoted languages inlocal to improve understanding officials. be leaders and These local also elected must working organisations, with society civil community campaigns that engage isolated digitally by localities governmentthe must deliver innovative information to electricity, coupled with informational asymmetries, inequalities interms of internet penetration and access and communication technologies. Given existing the relied on access to resources digital and information practiceswith to respect best COVID-19 have heavily Moreover, government informational campaigns on effective inter-departmental communication dilutes the limitations technical COVID-19 (NCOC), and lack of launch of National the Coordination Committee of a public crisis.Yet, duplication of efforts, suchthe as and resilience amongst relevant all stakeholders during promoting inter-provincial coordination, preparedness established in2010,is authority, afederal mandated with Nationalthe Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), authorities at various tiers of government. In Pakistan, preparedness and of building resilience across public all lesson to inculcate has been a crucial aculture of and humanitarian impact of COVID-19 the pandemic, Given widespread the environmental socioeconomic, governance structure across resilience and theentire build 5:AdoptLesson disaster preparedness outcomes. builds resilience and achieves sustainable development adaptive, draws on from evidence diverse disciplines, changing, demands this public that is policymaking representative. In an interconnected world that is ever governance models that are participatory, inclusive and core of learning this process to is need promote the cultural, demographic and economic profiles. the At learning opportunity for nations with similar socio- public crisisprovides health lessons that a can be shared Pakistan’s experiences, management of the knowledge of public Yet, policymaking. building on andsectoral has shaken foundations the of our existing crisis across world, the evolving, is which still is cross COVID-19 pandemic has to led a severe humanitarian at stage, this there is an urgency to that recognise the While conclusive recommendations cannot made be and epidemiological and topographic research projects. investments inpopulation and demographic surveys, exercises.collection Therefore, Pakistan must expand plans that on depend reliable and comprehensive data predicting future and scenarios building response continued manner. Additionally, preparedness requires authorities administrative and ina local bodies and education environmental the ministries, protection government’sin the welfare social department, health complementedbe with capacity-building programmes objective.this Efforts the NDMAof and must NCOC not limited to national the institution mandated with NDMA’s efforts. Nonetheless, disaster preparedness is 10

www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/lets-emerge-covid-19-stronger-health-systems# coronavirus-covid-19#:~:text=WHO%20announced%20COVID%2D19,on%2011%20March%202020. https://nation.com.pk/21-Aug-2020/scientists-ponder-secret-of-pakistan-s-falling-covid-19-death-rates com.pk/print/704269-experts-mull-mystery-of-pakistan-s-falling-covid-19-death-rates 1 Endnotes 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 coupled%20complex%20adaptive%20SES. streames/stewardship/adaptive-governance-.html#:~:text=Adaptive%20governance%20is%20an%20evolving,and%20 Citizen%e2%80%99s_Trust.pdf com/hrmars_papers/Examining_Citizen%e2%80%99s_Confidence_in_Institutions_of_Pakistan_An_Analysis_of_ International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences 5,no.5 (May 2015,):144.https://hrmars. and Binish Nauman, “Examining Citizen’s Confidence in Institutions of Pakistan: An Analysis of Citizen’s Trust”, Pakistan_latest_version.pdf of Pakistan, 2019,https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/233812019_06_15_VNR_2019_ To more learn about program the visit https://www.pmhealthprogram.gov.pk/ inefficiencies have challenged progress. priority area on PTI’s the agenda, political however governance, poor implementation loopholes and administrative Environment and Planning A,43no. 4(2011):773-780. https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2020/05/12/barbs-fly-as-senate-meets-to-discuss-covid-19-situation/ tribune.com.pk/article/95986/what-will-be-the-cost-of-ptis-indecisiveness-during-covid-19 “Experts mull “Experts mystery of Pakistan’s death Covid-19 falling rates”, The , AugustNews 22,2020.https://www.thenews. Gallup, “Pakistan’s Troubled State”, https://news.gallup.com/poll/157055/pakistan-troubled-state.aspx; Naila Yosuf “Pakistan’s Implementation of 2030Agenda the for Sustainable Development: Voluntary National Review”, Government The insurance health program waslaunched six months into ImranKhan’s premiership. welfarea Social been has Yates, Robert “Let’s Emerge From COVID-19 with Stronger Health Systems”, Riccardo Crescenzi and Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, “Reconciling top-down and bottom-up development policies”, mull “Experts mystery of Pakistan’s death Covid-19 falling rates”. Imad Zafar, “What cost the of be PTI’s will indecisiveness during Covid-19?”, “Adaptive Governance”, Stockholm Centre, Resilience https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/research- “Coronavirus pandemic”, disease WHO, 2020https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies/ The ExpressThe Tribune, May 4, 2020, https:// Chatham House , March 26, 2020. https:// 61 PUBLIC POLICY LESSONS FROM PAKISTAN’S EXPERIENCE WITH COVID-19 10 Defying the Odds: Pakistan’s Coronavirus Story

Amina Bajwa

n August 2019, I attended a session on ‘crisis as the new normal’ at the Bucerius Summer School in Germany, where the discussion was on the threat of new , on the battlefield and in cyberspace, without norms, treaties or frameworks. Who would have thought the aI year later the world would be channeling its efforts, money and technology towards solving another crisis—the COVID-19 pandemic.

The journey of most countries’ experience with COVID-19 can be compared to the five stages of grief. It started with questions on the existence of the virus and the denial of its threat. Next came anger, mostly towards government inaction and policy delays. This was followed by the aggressive spread of the virus and a collective human bargaining; governments regretted the decision of not controlling the virus at infancy, import orders of ventilators were being placed on an urgent basis and people started praying and asking God for mercy. Then came depression; hospitals were choked, people were dying in the hundreds and the feeling of helplessness grew. Finally, people have entered a stage of acceptance, realising that COVID-19 is here to stay, at least until a vaccine is developed and deployed.

The virus has affected over 25 million people across 213 countries.1 Governments and citizens alike have had to adapt to the crisis. Pakistan’s story is no different. The first case recorded was on 26 February of a Pakistani who had travelled from Iran. At that time, although Iran had a substantial number of cases, the Pakistan-Iran border remained open to travelers and pilgrims without any quarantine procedures or testing mechanism in place. Over the when itwhen had already and reported 892cases sixdeaths. lockdown countrywide fromimpose astrict 23March, studying forecast, case the government the to decided companies daily to projections run of After cases. tasked top the NCOC three private data sector analytics including by importing what was required. Next, the governmentthe channel resources to enhance capacity, ventilators available at each healthcare facility—helped equipment, and number the of oxygen beds, and tanks includedwhich details on protective personal across country. the This province-wide information— healthcare infrastructure, staff equipmentand available The first responsibility wasassigned to the existing map various government departments to assist in its tasks. national decisions. policy It tasks divided among also and as asecretariat for coordinating and following-up as anerve-centre for COVID-19served all related data meetings and update himon aweekly basis. The NCOC senior minister and an army general to preside over daily management authorities and army. the Khan assigned a ministers,health administration, district disaster with representatives from provincial all chief ministers, Islamabad and by is headed Prime Minister Imran Khan, is headquarteredThethecapital in NCOC city of andvirus Pakistan’s response. Operation for Centre (NCOC), management the of the upto set adedicated office, the National Command and criticism of government, federal the decided then which inabilitythe to control early virus the on sparked harsh Punjab and Pakhtunkhwa. Khyber Mismanagement and spread the triggering provinces of in the virus the of Europe, returned to without country the restriction, Pakistani migrant workers from and Middle the East other land borders and Travelers, airports. including passengers were to free enter through country the spread offrom virus the border the area, international with improvingwas struggling facilities to control the created plenty of press. bad While government the adequate facilities to detain travelers for 14days, which governmentthe up set camps along border the without next few weeks, as more pilgrims returned from Iran, but government the arranged flights special to bring remain shut. International flights were halted,also restaurants,malls, parks and transport the were to institutions, private offices and publicspacesas such A national lockdown meant that educational all 2

fund-raising drive. with government the raising PKR 4billion through a mosques to and function, government the caved. scholars beganpressurising government the to allow As month the of Ramadanapproached (May), religious in, geographical clusters or hotspots case emerged. gender and address information, and with data pouring database. test Each conducted had patient the name, age, private labs updating started results case onto single the COVID-19 test results. The governmentupgraded and coordinated establishment the of acentral database for government enhanced its testing capacity and NCOC the Even as lockdown the kept getting extended, the the worldthe (contributing 1percent of GDP annually country’s status as one of most the charitable nations in packs forof needy, the grocery inkeeping with the government inabundance for purchase and distribution peopleThe of Pakistan donated privately and the to ‘Ehsaas’ programme for affected those COVID-19.by and his office instructed enhance to its cash-transfer amongst daily labourers causing inpoverty levels arise worry). consoled people by saying ‘ghabrana nahi hai himself expressed scepticism over but policy the many government the cursed for strategy. this Khan people. While some appreciated blanket the lockdown, departments were causing closed, some pushback from no access. Mosques were locked and hospital out-patient but living those inremote and unconnected areas had skyrocketed. Most private schools online started classes, towards developing websites and apps as demand storesGrocery and corner shops in larger cities moved emerged. delivery startups focusing on service digital traditionalthe economy suffered.the On other hand, wedding gatherings banned. Industries were shut and setting up home offices. Borders were closed and regarding employment with others while struggled supplies ran out. workers sector Retail uncertainty faced stoppedfriends meeting eachother and hand sanitiser People were scared and roads were empty. Families and adapted to normal. new the few weeks, government, the citizens and businesses all for alimited orOver the an next indefinite period. flexibilitywhether indecidingthe to imposelockdown stranded Pakistanis back home. Provinces were allowed 3 Yet, voiced he also fears of unemployment 5

’ (do not 4 ), ), 63 DEFYING THE ODDS – PAKISTAN’S CORONAVIRUS STORY 64 DEFYING THE ODDS – PAKISTAN’S CORONAVIRUS STORY and phone were text alerts sent to had been people they positive people through cellular their network location to technology track COVID-19 imported used cases, country.TTQ strategy, This applied and both local to and implementedstrategy was devised across the time, this atrace,During test and quarantine (TTQ) COVID-19 war. address Pakistan virus, the appeared losing to the be developing and new strengthening existing systems to economy shrank. Despite government the working on survivors were for sold being exorbitant prices and the doctors beganto get infected, plasma the of COVID-19 hospitalsSoon reached capacities, their paramedics and against tests conducted reaching of ahigh 24percent. and 150deaths aday, with percentage the of positives Pakistan was reporting approximately cases 6800new caused an explosion inCOVID-19 By cases. June, to markets and other crowded common spaces.This with Eidcelebrations meant people flocking started government’s strategy to relax lockdown the coupled However, schools and private offices remained shut.The open for limited hours each day by end the of May. lockdownthe lifted they be wereandtoo allowed to after,Soon and industry retail businesses demanded Tests Done Figure and 1:COVID-19 Tests Cases inPakistan 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 5,000 0 11-Mar-20 18-Mar-20 25-Mar-20 01-Apr-20 8-Apr-20 15-Apr-20 22-Apr-20 29-Apr-20 6-May-20

Tests Done 13-May-20 20-May-20 27-May-20 3-Jun-20

10-Jun-20 wouldessentials barred as they from be exiting the informed inadvance and to advised stock up on in over 200hotspots across 30cities. Residents were government moved to implement asmart lockdown With providing technology data on clusters, virus the but prevented imported infection cases. hotels to isolate. Thiscame cost theat ahigh exchequerto reopened, passengers all were tested and transferred to official facility. Similarly, asflight operations partially to whether to isolateinfected choose at home or at an weeks. As to aresult, allow decided those NCOC the over fears of sent being to agovernment facility for two government facilities meant people to refused get tested accepted move. the However, forced the quarantine in citizens for monitoring movement, their but people soon country.the The governmentfrom criticism faced spreadthe of COVID-19 to led it adopted being across cities of three provinces and of efficacy the controlling first tested runningtwo-week a by pilotthe in major government quarantine facility.TTQ was strategy The either through home isolation or forced transfer to a who positivetestedThose were under placed quarantine, administration district while arranged for home tests. contactin close with. Contacts were to advised stay home 17-Jun-20

Tests Done 24-Jun-20 1-Jul-20 08-Jul-20 15-Jul-20 22-Jul-20 29-Jul-20 05-Aug-20 12-Aug-20 19-Aug-20 26-Aug-20 02-Sep-20 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

New Cases has led to these the low the has to led these numbers are setting up adedicated The topthree factorsthe in government’s approachthat rate under one percent at end the of August. average of 650 and 12,respectively, August, with daily and cases deaths reducing to an The number in infectionsof further new declined quarantine facilities beganto shut down. availablebecame after months and government opposite. COVID-19 wards began to empty, ventilators but hospital data and anecdotal suggests evidence the tounderreporting project cases its strategy as asuccess, remained government the same. the accused Others of due to reduced testing, data that revealed testing figures of month. the While some wondered numbers ifthe fell continuing to to an fall average of 1200aday by end the declined sharply, halving first inthe week of July and result were visible immediately—the number of cases epicenters were lockdown. under placed strict The effective be as those onlyareas that emerged virus as forneighbourhood two weeks. This strategy proved to 6 and positivity the combination of all—continues to work its magic. vaccinations, immunity, high ayoung population, or a lucky charm—hot and humid weather, BCG institutes resuming, one can only hope that Pakistan’s As fears of asecond wave loom with educational with fervour. crowded rock concert and Azha was Eidul observed are Independence full, Day celebrations resembled a Weddings have resumed, cinemas and restaurants its course, but Pakistanis’ attitudes show otherwise. passengers tested. being hasfrom The farvirus run lockdowns inany form and flights operatewithout distancing remains aweakness. Pakistan no longer has of measures like wearing masks and maintaining social of severity the COVID-19 and enforcement poor the mixed messages virus, the topolicies regarding tackle vulnerable. Despite government the adopting right the cash transfer programme to protect economically the hotspots to enforce targeted lockdowns, and using its using positive location case data efficiently toidentify decision-making with right the representation, body

65 DEFYING THE ODDS – PAKISTAN’S CORONAVIRUS STORY 66 DEFYING THE ODDS – PAKISTAN’S CORONAVIRUS STORY and Inspiring Change, of Leaders March Social 19,2018.https://ssir.org/articles/entry/philanthropy_in_pakistan tribune.com.pk/story/2178419/pm-imran-vows-win-war-covid-19 covid.gov.pk/stats/pakistan. 2 1 Endnotes 6 news/1559588 5 4 3 “Pakistan” Worldometer “Pakistan” Amir Wasim, “PM’s Corona Relief Fund Crosses Rs4bn Mark.” Dawn Shazia M.Amjad and Muhammad Ali. “Philanthropy inPakistan (SSIR)”, Stanford Innovation Informing Social Review: Rizwan Shehzad, “PM Imran Vows to Win War against COVID-19.” Express The Tribune “COVID-19 Health Advisory Platform of by National Ministry Regulations and Health Coordination,” Services http:// “Coronavirus Cases”, Worldometer , https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/pakistan/. , https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/. , May 27,2020.https://www.dawn.com/ , March 17,2020,https:// 11 In Midstream: France and the Quest to Adjust to a New Normal

Nicolas Bauquet

n France, the COVID-19 pandemic erupted as one more shock, in a series of social and political disruptions, such as the Yellow Vest movement1 and the protests against the government’s proposed pension reform. The French public was in doubt over President EmmanuelI Macron’s agenda of bold reforms proposed during his 2017 electoral campaign. Will the Great Disruption created by the pandemic be a factor of change or push the country to a state of paralysis and distrust that could threaten its unity and its place in Europe? Six months after COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, its effect on the country is still unclear. The government, businesses and civil society must give up hopes of resuming ‘normal life’ and understand there is no turning back on some key transformations initiated during the pandemic. The question remains, will France embrace change, or will it continue to resist?

Big State or Big Society?

In a country where political distrust has been high for decades, the COVID-19 crisis has been more than just another opportunity for citizens to criticise the government. It has been a moment of collective disarray as the country was caught off guard for having believed too long it had the best healthcare system in the world. France is often tempted to compare itself with Germany, but it had to suffer a striking contrast with a neighbour that seemed to enjoy more strength and more agility thanks to a close collaboration with industrial giants and a flexible federal system. 68 IN MIDSTREAM: FRANCE AND THE QUEST TO ADJUST TO A NEW NORMAL been overcomebeen earlier. afew decades leaving many to wonder how such acrisiswould have for French the economy during and afterthe lockdown, andsector of parts public the sector, have alifeline been efficient. meantime,the In the digitisation the of private app, the downloaded is which not enough to make it convincing. far, So less than three million users have up afunctioning tracing app (StopCovid) was far from andmainly pencil paper, used and attempt the to set presidential to scheduled election, place take in2022. key questionsthe years inthe to come and for next the top-down French State as itbe once will was? These it prompt to and awillingness centralised the reassert commu-nities, and local the to society civil the or will ancrisis be opportunity to now give responsibilities protect against country the such vulnerability. Will the champions of industrial new sovereignty that would are parties political All now competing the to be for that a country was not aware of weaknesses. these testing and of use the facemasks have a struggle been to fight goods pandemic,thecritical chemical agents for and prosperity. The disruptionsthe in supply chain of for nostalgia the aGaullist state, able to provide security otherOn the hand, crisis has the given strength new to 2010? by former Prime Minister David Cameron UKin inthe develop agenda anew of Big Society, as was attempted and society. civil Will opportunity the crisis be the to establish relationship anew public the between sector historic opportunity to redefinethe role the of State, and collective effortfrom actorsa level,thisbe could every at COVID-19 crisisis far from over and requires abroad countries controlled pandemic, the toolsdigital are instrumental way in the many Asian East andwithin country the with its competitors. Even as awareness anew has been of divide, digital the both Another key feature of COVID-19 the crisisinFrance local autonomylocal and less top-down policymaking. Jean Castex has promised more collaboration, more As aformer mayor of town asmall inSouthern France, changethis himself, by appointing prime anew minister. way of governing more to be inclusive. Macron stressed awarenessnew of necessity the for State the to change its sector, NGOs) that has prompted most criticism and a collaborate actors, with other private (local the partners It is precisely inability the of government the to Digitisation: Forwards or backwards? 3 French officials 2 As the the As

investment plan over next the three years, awarded be tools,few digital will €2billion inahuge The healthcare system, which foughtwith thevirus very accelerate digitalisation the of key sectors of country. the As for such, pandemic acall the has action to been lockdown. This figure is back percent,now to15 percent of employees working from home during the fosteredpandemic crises huge change, with almost 30 including remote working through tools. digital The workplace,the and areluctance to allow more flexibility, characterised by an emphasis on hierarchy and control in starting with working the culture? France has been Is advent the this of afundamental cultural change, next presidential election. mandate to reach concrete and visible results before the digitisationthe of whole the public sector, with the of minister anew incharge of transformation the and In July, government the reshuffleled the to appointment forscheduled November and could accelerate that trend. tools. Anational conference on education digital is and areluctance to develop education new and styles with an overlystruggling educationcentralised ministry build amore and agile school system digital inacountry for remote teaching urgency the to have exposed also in France. The closing schoolsof thelackand of tools that could prompt amuch-awaited revolution e-health able to move forward with next revolutions, the digital just as tracing the app did. How be will country the platforme-health probably will facesuch reluctance, initiative inthat regard. The development of an effective toprivacy raise doubts government new on every levelthe of resistance, using legitimate concern over digitisation of economy, the and pandemic the enhanced lower class middle feels increasingly threatened by the As Yellow the Vest movement revealed, a large of part the facingis distrust also from a growing of part country. the Even as digitisation appears more important than ever, it management working inthe place. transition from ahierarchical to more horizontal team for future the of businesses, and opportunity the to for system,crucial political akey the element is also way of collaboration. The issue particularly trust, of workforce is keen to keep amore and digital flexible to workplace. the In meantime, the a large of part the go back to normal and required employees to show up possible. Before summer, the many companies to tried system and allow to them work from home whenever employeestheir from public the taking transportation though government the is urging businesses to keep 4 inamove 5 even even the pandemic does not further weaken not pandemic Eurozone’sthe the does further competitiveness of continent the at one condition—that mean ahuge for boost European the project and the If romance political new this is to last, it could ble before outbreak the of pandemic. the coordinated approach that would have impossi- seemed Merkel have worked closely to ina achieve deal, this importantly, Macron and Chancellor German Angela announcedhas been by French the government. More paywill almost of half huge the stimulus package that diplomatic work scene. the This behind European loan junior minister, and can at last credit take for patient the foradviser European affairs, has been just appointeda of Clément speech, the Beaune, Macron’s longtime at Sorbonnespeech inSeptember 2017.Thewriter La integrated EU, long-awaited by Macron since his vibrant member states, an unprecedented step toward amore Europeanthe on level joint based borrowing by EU all stage—the decision to launch ahuge recovery plan at to Macron’s most significantthe on victory European that regard, response the to COVID-19 the crisis has led a president with apassionately pro-Europe platform. In European project over years, the even though it elected for that acountry less seems passionate about the France and European the Union (EU),akey element pandemicThe also changing is the relationship between France inEurope: Triumph or isolation? term effects thevirus are, of unknown. again, still competitiveness, inEurope and elsewhere, and long the including key to its be economic AI,will and political equation. key elements complex inthis economic and political level two the of spread be virus the will country inthe Frenchthe recovery plan and ability the to stabilise and couldtofragile The lead abacklash. success of Frenchthe public. But eachof transformations these is and revitalising European the project eyes of inthe moreto be agile, accelerating digitalisation at levels all deliver on its promises—reforming public the sector of for truth ability the of Macron the presidency to In away, still-unfolding the pandemic crisisis amoment and results the of huge these investments. with help the of tools digital to new monitor progress the results cooperation inclose authorities with local and ability of government the to deliver quick and concrete plan an should be opportunity also to demonstrate the billion) and digitalisation the of economy. the But this billion), training the of workforce the (another €30 transition ecological the (with investments up to €30 economic engine. It opportunity the be will to accelerate morebillion be will than an injection of cash in the government on 3September, key. be will €100 These recovery plan, officially announced the by French For reasons, these all success the of much-awaited the Germany. competition from Northern countries, especially and abig question mark over its ability to withstand club of Southern countries with a huge amount of debt suchhas that been it now appears as amember of the included.economic The shock the on Frencheconomy most vulnerable economies, Italy, Spain and France

69 IN MIDSTREAM: FRANCE AND THE QUEST TO ADJUST TO A NEW NORMAL 70 IN MIDSTREAM: FRANCE AND THE QUEST TO ADJUST TO A NEW NORMAL coronavirus-1236737 https://www.lesechos.fr/economie-france/social/exclusif-le-teletravail-a-beaucoup-recule-malgre-la-persistance-du- milliards-d-euros-pour-le-developpement-de-l-e-sante.N987994 L’Usine Nouvelle asian-responses-pandemic Policy Brief, Institut Montaigne, April 2020.https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/publications/fighting-covid-19-east- nationale gouvernement.fr/partage/11654-declaration-de-politique-generale-de-m-jean-castex-premier-ministre-assemblee- institutmontaigne.org/en/blog/yellow-vest-protesters-tip-french-social-crisis 1 Endnotes 5 4 3 1 Solveig Godeluck, “Le télétravail abeaucoup malgré persistance reculé la du coronavirus,” Les Echos, August 26, 2020, Vitard, Alice “Ségur Santé dela gouvernement :Le injecte deuxmilliards d’euros pour ledéveloppement del’e-santé,” Mathieu Duchâtel, François Godement, Viviana Zhu, “Fighting COVID-19: an Asian East Response to Pandemic,” the Jean Castex, “General Policy Statement to National the Assembly” Paris, (speech, July 15,2020),https://www. “The Yellow Vest protesters:tipthe the of crisis?,”Frenchsocial Institut Montaigne, , July 22,2020,https://www.usine-digitale.fr/article/segur-de-la-sante-le-gouvernement-injecte-deux- 28March 2019.https://www. 12 Rebooting Multilateralism? Lessons Still to be Learnt

Amrita Narlikar

ultilateral institutions were no different from their member states in that the COVID-19 pandemic caught them completely off guard. But compare the initial responses of most international organisations to those of some well- Mfunctioning states,1 and history—if written with due diligence—will not judge multilateralism kindly.

When the pandemic struck, most multilateral institutions failed to rise to the existential challenge that the disease posed to people across the world. There are several lessons of the pandemic that are yet to be learnt if multilateralism is to be reformed and made fit for purpose.

First response: Stories of dismal failure

Supporters of multilateralism have a standard justification for the existence of international organisations: in a globalised, interconnected world, there are just too many problems that cannot be solved by any one country alone. Multilateral institutions are supposed to facilitate collective action towards the provision of global public goods (such as free trade and global public health) and limit the ill-effects of public bads. Prevention of the spread of a highly contagious disease—one with high fatality rates, and many unknowns about potentially long-term damage to survivors—is exactly the kind of problem that multilateral organisations should be able to address. If prevention fails and pandemics nonetheless develop, it is reasonable to expect that the relevant multilateral organisations are able to curtail the hoarding of medicines 72 REBOOTING MULTILATERALISM? LESSONS STILL TO BE LEARNT spread ofwith dire disease, the cost to human life (at the The WHO had failed to containthe rapid global and following words: sins of omission and commission from WHO the inthe into crisis.Anne Applebaum aglobal summarises the transformationthe of outbreak the inWuhan, China, spreadthe of COVID-19, and thereby contributed to came at that a time to curtailing critical was particularly World Health Organization (WHO).early These failures that was directly mandated to address issues—the health The glaringmost failurescame from the organisation organisations responses. initial intheir failed geostrategic fronts, gain. Onthese multilateral nodal the of scarcities and vulnerabilities by countries for and essential equipment, and limit exploitation the b a affected member countries as well as forthe common European project. “Hamiltonian” moment for Europe. It early, too is still however,both howbe, to for see economiesthe lastingwill effects the of EU camethe up with a package worth €750 billion in July 2020 to facilitate economic recovery, manywhich have hailed as a bilateral arrangements. cooperation first inthe place is preciselybecausethatbelieve we it affordsall members greater certainty and predictability than allow There them. some thisis truth to claim, but it is rathertrite a truth. The reason why to we institutionalisechoose multilateral It is worth noting that under leadership the of French President Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor German Angela Merkel, Acommon line of defence that one hears against such critique is that multilateral institutions only work as well as members their mistakes, was strange…” equally in its public statements, and ignore Chinese WHO’s determination to compliment China had already spread.though disease the The to declare existence the of apandemic, even WHO’sthe decision to wait until March 11 transmission of quite virus the effectively, and has shownevidence that can cut they the necessary, for example, evenas mounting strange insistence that facemasks were not mistakes followed:… Other WHO’s the transmittedcould be from person to person. WHO member—that novel the coronavirus iswhich not, pressure, thanks to Chinese a leadership ignored from evidence Taiwan— As late as January organization’s 14,the naturethe and spread of coronavirus. the government that initially sought to conceal far closely too to narrative the of aChinese organization the crisis. Certainly adhered important ways during early the days of the “…the WHO world the failed insome 2

the EUevenamongstthe its own members. levels high of revealed data disappointment further with equipment for EUitself. the potentialbesides supply chain disruptions for medical devastating consequences for many third countries, supplies for non-EU members. This movethreatened to put up emergency restrictions export on hospital standards, and environmental standards, decided commitment to values, such as human rights, labour Union prides (EU),which itself on itspower soft and onlyto Even these with trade key allies. European the protective equipment for own their people or agreeing to turn inward, hoarding key medicines and personal As death the count mounted, many countries began to COVID-19). oftime writing almost this, 880,000 lives have lost been act. settlement functions, was not inmuch of aposition to beleaguered inits negotiation, monitoring and dispute Trade Organization But (WTO). WTO, the already able to step inand limit damage the was World the supply chains, organisation the that should have been Amidst disruption this that place was inglobal taking failed usfailed at enormous human and economic cost. Just world the when it needed most, multilateralism by helplessly and watched crisis deepen. the for was used being trade geostrategic gain. So, it stood put inplace, or different the indeed ways which in to put astop restraints to export the that were being multiplewith these problems, there was little inits rules that would Serbia turn to instead. China not exist. It on tale paper” was and afairy announced restraints from EU; he the said, “European solidarity does president’s bitter reaction to declaration the of export neighbours of EU. the for Recall, instance, Serbian the 6 And organisation evenifthe had not beset been 3 Discord erupted also with a,5

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narrative is an example of and this, it is one that appealed by.them USPresident Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ that believe who gains the of globalisation have passed (and fanned) disappointment the and anger of those theRight) Left and the both have harnessed successfully lastin the years that is fact the some politicians (from such astrongseen against backlash multilateralism domestic politics. An important reason why we have lesson has to do with importance the of narratives and pandemicthe has brought it into sharp This focus. secondThe lesson notalso is a new one, but once again, on.head to have achance, concerns addressed these to need be directly affected pandemic.the by If multilateralism is have who to and those friends families especially seen and reinforce multilateralism, ring desperately hollow, to not one’s close economies, value chains global preserve matters. Against background, this by leaders calls global own advantage, with dealing life-and-death evenwhen countrieswhich can exploit value chains global to their coronavirusthe pandemic has extent the revealed to ofcases weaponised interdependence last inthe years, could become “weaponised.” we And have while seen supposed to bind nations harmony, together inpeaceful was not built for aworld that ties, were where very the greater economic integration. But multilateralism this former into could rivals system now the via socialised be and peace, toliberal strengthen thatexpectation the of War Cold the to confirmthe seemed promise a of growth, development and thereby The end peace. also economic order would contribute to increased trade, prosperity are inextricably and causally linked. A liberal order was founded on assumption the that and peace derive from phenomenon. this post-war Our multilateral pandemic has reinforced real dangers very the that interdependence” didnot with COVID-19, the begin interdependence’. The first lesson comes from ‘weaponised cooperation worth pursuing. is still society,civil and others that believe who multilateral world leaders, international members servants, civil of to This them. includeswilling learn well-intentioned guardiansthe and supporters of multilateralism are teachingbeen us, and it remains whether seen to be There aretwo tough lessonsthat pandemicthe has to learnt be Lessons 7 And while the “weaponisation the And while of would inprevious have useful years been as well, importance the while of having convincing narratives closely with like-minded states and transnationally. And regionallocal, and national levels, and by also working donebe by engaging stakeholders within states at the individual This helpto needs within our societies. every must able be to show how multilateral cooperation will multilateralism To is worth preserving. well, dothis we data and grounded that infact, can show people why an urgent for need convincing narratives, backed by are evenmore vulnerable to such charges. There is spread by to pandemic, the renew calls multilateralism a “global elite”. Today, amidst death the and destruction ordinary people and representing interests the only of have for criticised far too being been removed from such, for some years now, pro-multilateralism narratives have butsolid been largely technocratic in content. As benefitsthe of havingmultilateralrules-based a system paintheir seriously. In contrast, many narratives about 2016 presidential it because election claimed to take proportionto agood of American the electorate inthe alliance, he went on to say following: the careful to state that was China not an of adversary the interestingly, of last Onthe rise China. the point, while disinformation, i.e. narratives), false terrorism, and, very fronts—COVID-19 (including addressing issue the of Stoltenberg for called amore “global approach” on three cope with pandemic. the NATO Jens General Secretary Its forces provided also support to civilian efforts to crisis,”security and maintained its operational readiness. to ensure that “the not crisisdoes health become a NATO reacted relatively early to pandemic, the worked of weaponised interdependence and narratives. The rapid updating throughout pandemic the on issues both Treaty Organization (NATO). In we case, this have seen interdependence and narratives—is North the Atlantic ofevidence recognition of lessons—weaponised both few organisationsOne of very the where there is livelihoods, but for also lives. their different parts the of world are fighting notonly their for importantis especially at people when atime across and bullying abroad. behaviour at home and increased assertiveness law… there is aclear pattern of authoritarian values. Democracy, freedom, of and rule the “It is clear that not does China share our 8 it it 73 REBOOTING MULTILATERALISM? LESSONS STILL TO BE LEARNT 74 REBOOTING MULTILATERALISM? LESSONS STILL TO BE LEARNT autarkism, that work will to detriment the of almost all of shallow and meaningless multilateralism, but defacto against globalisation. We emergence risk the of aworld multilateral organisations, backlashes we risk further If two lessons these remain inother unheeded readily into account. concernstake of geoeconomics both and values more and its mandate matters on security perhaps allows it to NATO, by definition, is a non-universal organisation leadership and nature of membership. Moreover, of workings specific the the differentof institutions, months. There are explanations,several including those normthe inlearning urgent the lessons of last the few One might ask why NATO represents exception the to oea.” a Kore Australia, Japan, New and South Zealand and far -like and . But also in amore competitive world. Partners near international topartners defend our values Working even more closely with our for us to amore take approach. global toAmerica continue to stand together. And our people safe, is for Europe and North challenges, and secure to keep our societies bestThe way eachglobal to face these of 9 further breakdown.further institutions to astate and malaise of everdeeper no longer work. It likely will condemn our multilateral universal multilateralism will with of a vague set rules levels of state intervention—under one umbrella of thatmarket-friendly vsrules support rules high andliberalism pluralism vsauthoritarianism, or different politicaland goals—forsocietal instance, countries that stand actually for fundamentally to exercise such athreat credibly. Simply aggregating decoupling from strategic or rivals, at least able being opening up to possibility the of and agradual selective forthcomingthan has been thus far. It necessitates much greater attention to values and like-mindedness of multilateralism. purpose the This, in turn, requires This requires re-examining, and probably re-defining, should uphold, and goals the that should they pursue. ondecide values the that multilateral instruments cooperation—no more, no less. multilateralism is an instrument of international far inreforming it or rebuilding it. Ultimately, matters but is true, reiterating not does this get us very mantra that multilateralism matters. That multilateralism For far often, too hear a we still repetition the of atlook question the of of multilateralism. purpose the To address issues these seriously requires acold and hard countries. countries, rich and inboth poor the poor and especially 10 It is up to us to

/europeans-believe-in-more-cohesion-despite-eus-covid-19-failingshttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/23 over-serbia . 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/coronavirus-diplomacy-how-russia-china-and-eu-vie-to-win- investment-policy-watch/eu-limits-medical-gear-exports-put-poor- countries-and Watch,Policy gets-prescription-wrong-63708/ Research Foundation), Observer (Delhi: March 25,2020,https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/covid19-dr-who- Johns Hopkins Press), 2020.p. 226;Samir Saran, “#COVID19: DrWho gets Prescription Wrong,” ORF Health Express and Francis Gavin COVID-19 (eds.), and World Order: The Future Conflict,of Competition and Cooperation (Baltimore: lifestyle-over-life/ Research Foundation), August 4,2020,https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/first-world-problems-choosing- 1 Endnotes 10 opinions_176983.htm . at Institute German the for and Global Area Studies (GIGA), June 30,2020,https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/ 9 8 coercion,” 7 campaign=wtoseries . 2020, https://www.cigionline.org/articles/grand-bargain-revive-wto?utm_source=&utm_medium=social&utm_ 6 5 4 3 2 reforming-multilateralism. March 2, 2020, https://www.giga-hamburg.de/en/publication/germany-in-the-united-nations-security-council- Cambridge University Press, 2020. Katherine Butler, “Coronavirus: Europeans say EUwas ‘Irrelevant’ during Pandemic,” The Guardian, June 24,2020, Shaun Walker, “Coronavirus How Diplomacy: Russia, and China to EUvie over win Serbia,”Guardian, The “EU Bown, Chad Limits on puts Medical Exports Gear countries poor and Europeans at risk,” Trade and Investment Anne Applebaum, “When World the Stumbled: COVID-19 and Failure the of International the System,” inHals Brand Amrita Narlikar, “First World Problems: Life and between Choosing Lifestyle,” ORF Health Express Observer (Delhi: Jens Stoltenberg, “Geopolitical Implications of COVID-19” Speech by NATO Jens General Stoltenberg Secretary Farrell Henry and Abraham Newman, “Weaponized Interdependence: How economic global networks shape state Amrita Narlikar, “A Grand Bargain to WTO,” Revive the inModernizing the An WTO: Essay (Waterloo: Series CIGI), Amrita Narlikar, Amrita Narlikar, “Germany United inthe Nations Reforming Council: Multilateralism,” Security GIGA Focus Global, International Security 44,No. 1(Summer 2019):42-79. Peterson Institute for International Economics, March 19,2020https://www .piie.com/blogs/trade-and- Poverty Narratives and Power Paradoxes in International Trade Negotiations and Beyond, Cambridge: April 13, 75 REBOOTING MULTILATERALISM? LESSONS STILL TO BE LEARNT About the Editor and Authors

SHOBA SURI Shoba Suri is a Senior Fellow with ORF’s Health Initiative. Shoba is a nutritionist with experience in community and clinical research. She has worked on nutrition, healthcare, and young child feeding, policy advocacy and assessment. Shoba is a trained Infant and Young Child Feeding (IYCF) counselling specialist with more than 40 research publications in scientific journals and books. She has travelled widely during her research work.

AMINA BAJWA Amina Bajwa works at the Prime Minister’s Strategic Reform Unit of the Government of Pakistan, where she leads agriculture sector and governance reforms. She holds a Master’s degree in Policy Economics from Williams College, US, and a Bachelors (Honors) degree in Economics from the Lahore University of Management Sciences, Pakistan. Amina is a farmer, entrepreneur and a Bucerius Summer School 2019 alumni.

AMRITA NARLIKAR Amrita Narlikar serves as Non-Resident Senior Fellow at ORF in an honorary capacity. She is the President of the German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA), and Professor at Hamburg University. Prior to moving to Hamburg, she held the position of Reader in International Political Economy at the and a Fellowship at Darwin College. She was also Senior Research Associate at the Centre for International Studies at the University of Oxford from 2003 to 2014. Amrita was awarded her MPhil and DPhil from Oxford University (Balliol), and was then appointed to a Junior Research Fellowship at St John’s, Oxford. She also has intellectual roots at the School of International Studies, JNU, and St. Stephen’s College, Delhi. Amrita has authored/edited eleven books. The policy relevance of her research brings Amrita into frequent and close exchange with practitioners. She has authored several policy briefs and has had her expertise cited in a range of media outlets. He is aAsian Forum on Governance Global Alumni, 2014. an Associate Researcher at Center at Orfalea the University the of Santa California, Barbara, US. Fernando Brancoli is an Associate Professor at Federal the University of de Janeiro, Rio Brazil, and FERNANDO BRANCOLI and EUand power US,the the the and between China triangle of theories money. European affairs, monetary the international financial architecture, economic global governance main areas are of international expertise and comparative economy, political international and ResearchSenior Fellow at EU- the Institute at of ESSCASchool Management inFrance. His Political Economy at of School the and Global Public Affairs at IE University. In addition, he is Miguel Otero-Iglesias is Analyst Senior at Elcano Royal Institute and Professor inInternational MIGUEL OTERO-IGLESIAS thesis to question the of relationship the religion between and politics incommunist Hungary. and DirectorSee of French the cultural centre in . As a historian, he devoted his doctoral power inAsia. From 2010to 2014,he was Cultural Counsellor at French the Embassy to Holy the of French the Officein Taipei from 2014 to2018, he workeddevelopment the on of French soft eight years inFrenchserved cultural diplomacy. As Head of Culture the and Cooperation Section supérieure and holder of an agrégation of history, he has taught at Po Sciences and Harvard. He has Nicolas Bauquet is Research Director at Institut Montaigne since 2018.Agraduate of Ecole normale including chapters books, incomparative volumes and journals. articles inacademic institutional capacity and quality the of governance in Spain. He is author the of many publications, European Union, Europeanisation the of Spain’s politics and government, analysis the of State’s the visiting fellow at universities. several His areas of interest include and future the expertise of the of Politics and International Relations at Universidad the Autónoma deMadrid. He has been Ignacio Molina is Analyst Senior at Elcano the Royal Institute and Lecturer at Department the and delivered presentations and published his articles in28different countries. dean for international affairs. He givenhas lectures the invitationat of six national governments Louvain and inBelgium, Young Raisina Fellow at ORF, Professor currently Lopes is UFMG deputy as visiting researcherserved at GIGA the inGermany, visiting professor at Catholic the University of in Brazil, and asenior scholar at Brazilian the Center for International Relations. Having previously Gerais (UFMG), aresearcher of National the for Council Technological andDevelopment Scientific isDawisson aprofessor Lopes Belém of international politics at Federal the University of Minas NICOLAS BAUQUET IGNACIO MOLINA DAWISSON BELÉM LOPES 77 ABOUT THE EDITOR AND AUTHORS 78 ABOUT THE EDITOR AND AUTHORS He is an Fellow elected of of academies three science India. all he was appointed as CEOof DBT/Wellcome the Trust India Alliance, abiomedical research charity. Biotechnology, New and Delhi, it led for 25years; his research on human focused In 2013, viruses. In up 1988, he set the Group at International the Centre for Engineering and Genetic His work postdoctoral was at invirology University the of Colorado Health Center, Sciences US. Technology-Kanpur and obtained at a PhD in Washington State University, US. Shahid Jameel at studied Aligarh the Chemistry Muslim University and Indian Institute of UKandScience, holds aBA degree inEconomics from Bilkent University, Turkey. Economicdegree Development inLocal from London the of School Economics and Political Program’s report Covid Addressing titled Public the Health Crisis (July 2020).Saba has an MSc in Pakistan” (CPPG, August 2020)and has contributed towards Think the TankSocieties and Civil for Pakistan” (CPPG, May 2020),“Ensuring an Equitable Distribution of Vaccination Covid-19 the More recently she has published two research articles on COVID-19: “Covid-19: Policy Options British Cross, Red UNICEF Turkey, Flying Broom and International Reading Solidarity Centre. UNDP Pakistan. She has volunteered extensively with international organisations, including the Saba worked with Mahbub the Haq ul Human Development Centre and consultant has been with written extensively of on and rise China the on development the of CPEC the (BRI). Previously, & News. Her research interests include public gender health, and human development. She has (AChartered College Christian University), Lahore, and is co-editor of CPPG’s Quarterly Research Saba Shahid is Research Fellow at Centre the for Public Policy and Governance at Forman risks. global of emerging technologies, diplomacy, science foresight, co-creation and of management policy of current work on avariety of is focused topics such policy, as science international security, risks Council, aWorld Economic Forum Fellow and an advisor to different mentorship initiatives. Her Academy, an Eisenhower Fellow, reviewer for an expert UNDRR and International the Science at Women Economic Forum, for lead the Advice Science the working group at Young Global the Asian Forum for Governance, Global for Reviewer European the an Expert Commission, an advisor empowerment, delegate, aUNESCO an Emerging at Leader Atlantic the aFellow Dialogues, at the world. She has had opportunity the to become aUNWomen champion for women’s economic to provideevidence scientific and advicepolicymakers to and international institutions around the andher experience scientificbackground to conduct research risksthe on of emerging technologies After havingthe opportunity to study in Finland,Peru, Sweden and sheto Australia use decided career as aresearcher on molecular biology, neurosciences, biomedicine and developmental biology. at interface the of at and science project policymaking the of AScience Risk. Global She her started RojasRios is aResearch Associate at Centre the for Study the of Existential Risk where she works SHAHID JAMEEL SABA SHAHID RIOS ROJAS and aBA inInternational Relations from Donetsk National University, Ukraine. platforms.tank Viktoriia has an MAinEuropean Studies from Higher the of School Economics AffairsCouncil, informational and centeranalytical the MSU,of among other think media and integration inEurope and . She writes for Russia Affairs, inGlobal Russian International AffairsCouncil. Her research interests include public diplomacy,soft power,technologies,media Foreign Trade Academy, of an PICREADI expert (Creative Diplomacy) and Russian International Viktoriia Ivanchenko is an analyst at Institute the of Integration Development of Russian the VIKTORIIA IVANCHENKO year as aWellcome Trust Research Senior fellow at World the Health Organization. (Cambridge)(Harvard), and sociology philosophy political (Cambridge). He recently spent one in 1994.His training includes international relations (Brown), (SOAS), history public global health starting as aresearcher at Human Rights Watch documenting HIV/AIDSrelated abuses inIndia and ethics health justice. Sridharat has been forefront the for of health global over 25years London,College Health Global Institute. He is an practitioner academic areas inthe of global Sridhar Venkatapuram is an Associate Professor Health inGlobal and Philosophy, at based King’s SRIDHAR VENKATAPURAM of Management (May, 2016). Foundation Scholarship (March, 2015)and of Dean’s the Fellowship Award at MITSloan School from MIT Sloan the of School Management. She recipient the is also of Women´s the Forté clients. With abackground inlaw, Silvana holds an MBA degree and aSustainability Certificate in business development, innovation, knowledge management and licensing technology for global marketplace of developers technical and enthusiasts. Silvana has over 15years of experience global inspiredand methodology by on MITand building focused aWeb global 3.0decentralised CEO and co-founder of The BlockchainChallenge -based startup Inc., a with technology Silvana is an Lopez entrepreneur, intellectual and property innovator expert strategist. She is the SILVANA LOPEZ 79 ABOUT THE EDITOR AND AUTHORS 20, Rouse Avenue Institutional Area, New Delhi — 110002, INDIA Phone: +91 011 35332000 Fax: +91 011 35332005 Email: [email protected] Website: www.orfonline.org