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Rebooting the World Six Months of Covid-19

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Rebooting the World Six Months of Covid-19 REBOOTING THE WORLD SIX MONTHS OF COVID-19 SHOBA SURI EDITOR © 2020 Observer Research Foundation All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of ORF. Attribution: Shoba Suri, Ed., Rebooting the World: Six Months of COVID-19, September 2020, Observer Research Foundation. Cover image: © Getty ORF provides non-partisan, independent analyses on matters of security, strategy, economy, development, energy and global governance to diverse decision-makers including governments, business communities, academia and civil society. ORF’s mandate is to conduct in-depth research, provide inclusive platforms, and invest in tomorrow’s thought leaders today. Design and Layout: Rahil Miya Shaikh ISBN: 978-81-947783-1-8 With special thanks to Oommen C Kurian, Kriti Kapur and Laetitia Bruce Warjri for their invaluable time and inputs. CONTENTS Introduction 4 Background 7 1. Brazil and COVID-19: A Cautionary Tale 13 Dawisson Belém Lopes 2. After Six Months of COVID-19, Brazil’s Government is Adrift by Political Choice 18 Fernando Brancoli 3. The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same 23 Shahid Jameel 4. No More Quarantine: Is it Time for Russia to Celebrate? 30 Viktoriia Ivanchenko 5. Peru Remains in Lockdown, But Promise of Vaccine Brings Hope 35 Clarissa Rios Rojas 6. COVID-19: Understanding the Latin American Scenario 39 Silvana Lopez 7. COVID-19: Lessons from the ‘Spanish Lifestyle’ Terminator 42 Miguel Otero-Iglesias and Ignacio Molina 8. A Very British Disaster (and Collective Denial) 52 Sridhar Venkatapuram 9. Public Policy Lessons from Pakistan’s Experience with COVID-19 57 Saba Shahid 10. Defying the Odds: Pakistan’s Coronavirus Story 62 Amina Bajwa 11. In Midstream: France and the Quest to Adjust to a New Normal 67 Nicolas Bauquet 12. Rebooting Multilateralism? Lessons Still to be Learnt 71 Amrita Narlikar About the Editor and Authors 76 Introduction Shoba Suri andemics are not merely a health concern, they deeply impact economies and communities as well. The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the fragility of healthcare systems, the inadequacy of social protections frameworks and the vulnerability of global supplyP chains. Since the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed in December 2019 in China’s Wuhan—with the Wuhan wet market the suspected source— more than 200 countries1 and regions have been affected. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic on 11 March 2020, and named the virus that caused it as the ‘Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2’ or SARS-CoV-2. The virus is transmitted by inhaling droplets through close contact with infected persons. Symptoms for COVID-19 can range from mild (like a common cold) to those indicative of acute respiratory illness,2 and include fever, cough, sore throat, breathlessness and fatigue. The elderly and persons with co-morbidities, such as diabetes, hypertension and non-communicable diseases, have been found to be the most at risk. The COVID-19 pandemic has cost lives and livelihoods across the globe. According to the World Trade Organization and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,3 COVID-19 is a bigger threat to the global economy than the 2008 financial crisis was. The imposition of lockdowns to curb the spread of the virus has resulted in the slowdown of the global economy, which has directly affected the GDPs of countries, particularly emerging economies. Major industries and businesses were disrupted with 5 the suspension of transportation services (flights, but also helping keep friends and families connected railways, buses, trucks and other forms of public and while being socially distanced. The enhanced role of INTRODUCTION private transport). Consequently, entire economies came technology has accelerated innovations in healthcare, to a grinding halt. No sector has been left untouched with countries’ entire medical systems and researchers by the pandemic. Tourism came to a standstill, and racing to find a viable vaccine for COVID-19. As WHO educational institutes and workplaces transitioned to has warned of the likelihood of the pandemic worsening, remote and digital spaces. Many countries now face the governments across the world face the dilemma of threat of high inflation rates4 and a rise in unemployment5 having to choose between limiting the spread of the due to decreased productivity and increased healthcare virus through lockdown measures or kickstarting and expenditure to combat COVID-19. reopening stalled economies to prevent further damage to lives and livelihoods. As we arrive at the six-month mark of the pandemic, ‘unlocks’ (gradual reopening of the economy) have This series brings together essays from countries been initiated in many countries, even as global worst hit by the pandemic. They showcase how infection rates continue to rise. As of 10 September, governments, societies and businesses have tried more than 28 million people have been infected by to adapt to the “new normal” using all available COVID-19, with the US, India and Brazil accounting tools and strategies, including contact tracing for over 50 percent of all cases. apps and social distancing measures. As we look back at the last six months of the COVID-19 In such difficult and trying circumstances, technology pandemic, these essays will highlight the has provided solutions. Technological tools have cross-learnings on the management of the pandemic been at the forefront of the fight against COVID-19, not and the solutions that have been found to mitigate only providing access to essential and telehealth services, the crisis. 6 Endnotes INTRODUCTION 1 “Countries where Covid-19 has spread,” Worldometer, September 7, 2020, https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ countries-where-coronavirus-has-spread/ 2 Tanu Sighal, “A Review of Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19),”Ind J Pediatr 87 (2020): 281-86. 3 “The impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis on development finance,” OECD Policy Responce to COVID-19, June 24, 2020, http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/the-impact-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-crisis-on- development-finance-9de00b3b/ 4 Dan Kopf, “Covid-19 is distorting inflation numbers around the world,” Quartz, June 17, 2020, https://qz.com/1869519/ covid-19-is-distorting-inflation-numbers-around-the-world/ 5 David Evans and Amina Mendez Acosta, “The Economic impact of OVID-19: After record unemployment, countries around the world begin to reopen industries,” Centre for Global Development, June 5, 2020, https://www.cgdev.org/blog/ economic-impact-covid-19-after-record-unemployment-countries-around-world-begin-reopen Background t the beginning of September, the global tally of COVID-19 cases stood at 25 million, while the death toll crossed 860,000. Less than a month into the pandemic,1 the US became the most infected country in the world; as of 10 September, it has Areported more than 6.5 million cases and 195,239 deaths. India and Brazil follow, with 4.4 million and 75,091 deaths, and 4.1 million cases and 128,653 deaths, respectively. Brazil has a high recovery rate of 79 percent as compared to the US’s 56 percent. Russia, the fourth most infected country, has seen a gradual decrease in the number of cases. The Latin American region is one of the worst affected in the world.2 Apart from Brazil, Mexico—with 647,507 cases and 69,095 deaths, at the time of publishing—has also seen a rapid spread of COVID-19 infections. Peru has reported 702,776 cases and over 30,000 deaths, and Chile has had 427,027 cases and over 11,000 deaths. However, the recovery rate of 93 percent brings some hope. COVID-19 MOST INFECTED COUNTRIES USA SPAIN FRANCE RUSSIA Total Confirmed Total Recovery Total Confirmed Total Recovery Total Confirmed Total Recovery Total Confirmed Total Recovery Cases Deaths Rate Cases Deaths Rate Cases Deaths Rate Cases Deaths Rate 65,49,475 1,95,239 59% 5,43,379 29,628 NA 3,44,101 30,794 26% 10,41,007 18,135 82% MEXICO UK GERMANY Total Confirmed Total Recovery Total Confirmed Total Recovery Total Confirmed Total Recovery Cases Deaths Rate Cases Deaths Rate Cases Deaths Rate 6,47,507 69,095 70% 3,55,219 41,594 NA 2,56,349 9,410 90% PERU ARGENTINA PAKISTAN Total Confirmed Total Recovery Total Confirmed Total Recovery Total Confirmed Total Recovery Cases Deaths Rate Cases Deaths Rate Cases Deaths Rate 7,02,776 30,236 76% 5,12,293 10,658 75% 2,99,855 6,365 96% COLOMBIA CHILE BRAZIL INDIA Total Confirmed Total Recovery Total Confirmed Total Recovery Total Confirmed Total Recovery Total Confirmed Total Recovery Cases Deaths Rate Cases Deaths Rate Cases Deaths Rate Cases Deaths Rate 6,86,856 22,053 80% 4,27,027 11,702 94% 41,99,332 1,28,653 82% 44,65,863 75,091 78% 9 Figure 1. Covid-19 cases and Lag-case fatality ratio from worst affected countries BACKGROUND 70,00,000 30% 26% 60,00,000 25% 50,00,000 20% 40,00,000 13% 15% 30,00,000 12% 10% Ratio Lag-Case Fatality 20,00,000 Total Confirmed CasesCovid-19 Total 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 5% 10,00,000 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 0 0% UK Peru USA India Chile Spain Brazil Russia France Mexico Pakistan Germany Colombia Argentina Total Confirmed Cases Lag - Case Fatality Rate Figure 1 shows the Lag-case fatality ratio (L-CFR) second-most badly affected country. In India, the spread and the total confirmed cases from the worst affected of the virus is like a slow-buring coil,8 as compared to the countries. The L-CFR is a measure of case fatality that other badly-hit countries, the US and Brazil.
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