HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™

Tropical Storm Erika Information from NHC Advisory 2A, 8:00 AM EDT Tuesday August 25, 2015 Erika is moving toward the west near 20 mph, and a westward to west- northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed are expected during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will approach the Wednesday night and early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. (NHC)

Max Sustained Wind 45 mph Position Relative to 750 miles E of the Leeward Speed: (Tropical Storm) Land: Islands Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 1003 mb Coordinates: 14.8 N, 50.2 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 80 miles Bearing/Speed: W or 280 degrees at 20 mph n/a Winds Extent: Speed: Forecast Summary  The current NHC forecast map (below left) shows Erika moving toward over the next several days and strengthening to a hurricane on Saturday.  The windfield map (below right) is based on the NHC’s forecast track and also shows Erika strengthening to a hurricane on Saturday with maximum sustained winds between 74 and 95 mph. To illustrate the uncertainty in Erika’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the map in pale gray.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Forecast Track for Tropical Storm Erika Forecast Windfield for Tropical Storm Erika (National Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 12:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp.

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Coastal Watches and Warnings A Tropical Storm Watch – meaning that tropical storm conditions are possible, within 48 hours - is in effect for Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, and St. Maarten. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Erika, as watches may be required for additional areas later today.

Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date

Benchmarking the 2015 Atlantic Season to Date 2015 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 - 2011

Tropical Total Cat 3-5 12

Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Tropical Storm avg '50‐'11 Tropical Storm 2015 Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Hurricane 2015 2015 year to date (1/1/15 – 8/25/15) 5 1 1 Major Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Major Hurricane 2015

2014 year to date (1/1/14 – 8/25/14) 3 3 0 8 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8

1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 TS Erika

2015 CSU season forecasts 4 TS Danny 8 2 1 (Colorado State University at August 4,‘15) TS Claudette TS Bill 2015 NOAA season forecasts HU Danny 6-10 1-4 0-1 STS Ana (August 6, 2015) M. Danny 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2015 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Erika is the fifth named storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The graph above shows 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and Last year saw only three named storms by August 25, but all were average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It hurricanes. shows, for example, that Erika became the fifth named storm of the season on August 24, which is a bit early for the season’s fifth named storm. It also shows that the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5).

New Potential and Average Remaining Risk

NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Average Risk Remaining in the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The map below illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5)

formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic. The area both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average

west of the Islands indicated with a yellow X has 10% remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at Aug 25

chance of developing within the next 48 hours. is 80% for all hurricanes and 82% for major hurricanes.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on August 25, 2015 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900

60% 100%

48% 80%

36% 60%

24% 40%

12% 20% Risk Daily Average Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5)

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