PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2010-2035

Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices: Transportation and Land Use

Introduction

Transportation planning requires an awareness and acknowledgement of the effects the existing transportation system has on adjacent land use development, demand for land use development, choices, and the resulting aggregate land use patterns. Likewise land use decisions result in demand for certain improvements to the transportation system.

With this understanding, transportation planners can anticipate and project trends and their influence on future transportation and land use coordination and integration, and how they may most efficiently complement each other. This chapter examines the present conditions and the past and future trends in transportation and land use and how different choices from those made in the past may lead to better outcomes for both.

As individuals, we all make decisions about where to live, work, shop, and recreate, among other destination related choices. These individual decisions when aggregated collectively determine the demand for transportation system infrastructure and amenities. The decision to build or expand infrastructure has a significant impact on the character of place, future patterns of land development, and if not considered carefully, can create barriers for other transportation mode choices. Examples exist throughout the region, but most can relate to how a busy highway is not compatible with bicycle and pedestrian Major Past Trends: 1960-2010 transportation. 1. The north-south orientation of the transportation system helped shape The collective individual decisions of where to live, the regional development pattern. work, shop and recreate are determining factors in 2. Population growth in Cumberland and the use of the transportation system and in future York Counties was faster outside the patterns of land use development. Therefore, PACTS region than within it. socio-economic data is a focus of this examination. 3. Driving and roadway travel demand Future trends are examined to the year 2035 past increased faster than population. trends look back to 1960 to 2009.

Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices 3-1 PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2010-2035 The Transportation – Land Use Connection

For this 2010 update, the Destination Tomorrow Update Committee members and PACTS staff agreed that the work recently completed for the regional Gorham East-West Corridor Feasibility Study [Gorham East-West] on land use and transportation assessments, provided the most sophisticated assessment of current conditions in light of past trends – trends that without intervention will continue an economically inefficient, low-density pattern of auto-dependent land uses that has become financially unsustainable to maintain. The resulting recommendations are relevant to the entire PACTS region and are incorporated in this Plan update.

The alternative land use scenario identified in Gorham East-West and recommended for the region is an Urban and Rural Form1 . A hybrid of some original land use alternatives considered, Urban and Rural is a take-off on the transect concept of a logical progression from natural undeveloped rural areas, through increasing levels of development density transitioning to an urban center(s) an urban core(s). The Urban and Rural Form and transect concept benefits transportation and ecological systems can be customized for regions, what matters is that the details are internally consistent and mutually supportive.

This form enables the core urban communities of Portland, South Portland, Westbrook, Saco and Biddeford to retain their higher proportion share of regional employment, and reverse the trend of losing their share of residential population and housing units. The Urban and Rural land use scenario as envisioned for the PACTS Region also provides for the PACTS suburban communities to retain a significant proportion of the employment, population and housing shares which if organized into compact walkable neighborhood areas or into town centers, would function as Transit-Oriented Corridors (TOC) that support economic development -- Transit- Oriented Development or “TOD” .

Example of a Transect, Urban and Rural

1 The Gorham East-West Corridor Feasibility Study Area comprised approximately 1/3 of the PACTS member communities but the alternative Urban and Rural Form was modeled for the entire PACTS region.

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Trend: Greater Portland Land Use 1945 - Current

For the last century the overall pattern of settlement in the U.S., including Maine, has been described as a two-part “centralization-decentralization.” This means that there has been a continuous migration of population into metropolitan areas (centralization) as people leave job- depleted rural regions and move to metro areas where there are more economic opportunities. And then, within metropolitan areas, there has been a migration outward from the core communities into the suburbs and exurbs, typically within 30-45 minutes of the job centers (decentralization).

Oriented along the coast of Casco Bay, the metropolitan area includes the historic manufacturing areas along the Saco River to the South, the port area of the Fore River at the mouth of Portland Harbor, and the small villages to the northeast along the Presumpscot, Royal and Harraseeket Rivers. It also includes the former farm communities in the interior from the coast that have suburbanized.

Over the last 50 years, the local economy has Aspects of Land Use that Impact gradually shifted from fishing, manufacturing and Transportation agriculture towards a more service-based economy. The communities that comprise the PACTS region . Mixed use versus segregated use may be grouped according to three general land use development patterns. . Lot sizes and development density. patterns: mature urban; rapidly developing or . The number and frequency of curb cuts. higher-density suburban; and slower-developing or . Availability and price of parking. lower-density suburban. While a number of the . Quality and availability of sidewalks, communities may have areas that more crosswalks, bikeways, paths and other appropriately belong in a different category, the passenger transportation infrastructure. communities may be generally classified as having . Compatibility and safety of multiple one land use pattern. transportation modes associated with adjacent land uses. This “Low Density” or “Trends Scenario” pattern . Development that is pedestrian-oriented was acknowledged in the Gorham East-West study versus automobile-oriented. and is accepted throughout the PACTS region and its communities. The centralization of Maine’s population into metropolitan areas, especially the PACTS region, will continue to help drive economic and population growth in southern Maine. The amount of ongoing decentralization to the suburban and rural territories around the core communities will shape transportation and other demands on the region and its communities.

The PACTS region comprises Maine’s largest urban region and represents the center of the State’s economic activity, with a high percentage of the state’s population and jobs. The City of Portland has become Maine's economic center for many reasons, including the location of Maine's

Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices 3-3 PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2010-2035 largest Port, largest population, largest (and growing) airport and its proximity to Boston -only 115 miles to the south.

The Cities of Biddeford, Portland, Saco, South Portland and Westbrook are mostly mature urban communities. The Towns of Gorham, Falmouth, Old Orchard Beach, North Yarmouth and Scarborough are rapidly developing or higher-density suburban communities. The Towns of Cape Elizabeth, Cumberland, Freeport, Windham and Yarmouth are slower developing or lower- density suburban communities.2 While the dividing line between a faster- and slower- growing suburban community is somewhat arbitrary, it is notable that the collective population of the suburban communities has more than doubled since 1960 while that of the urban communities has increased after declining between 1960 and 1980. See Figure 3-1.

Figure 3-1 Population in the PACTS Urban and Suburban Communities

108,129 2010 148,449

100,726 2000 141,531

84,679 1990 139,533 Suburban 73,363 Urban 1980 131,819

56,959 1970 134,488

44,221 1960 138,944

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000

Note: The above data are for the PACTS municipalities in their entirety, although only more densely settled areas of 11 of the 15 PACTS communities are actually within the PACTS urbanized area.

2 Communities with an annual average population increase of at least 2% between 1980 and 2000, or that experienced a total population increase of at least 50% for both the 20-year period between 1980 and 2000 and the 40-year period between 1960 and 2000 were considered to be rapidly developing.

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Over the last 50 years, The Greater Portland region has experienced a decentralization of its population (and employment, discussed in next section) from its urban centers to its suburban and rural towns. However, as Figure 3-1 illustrates on the previous page, 1980 represents the bottom of the urban population decline, and by 2010 a multi decade trend appears that the urban areas have not only stopped losing population, but are growing again:

 Portland grew by 3% between 2000 and 2010 from 64,249 to 66,194  South Portland grew by 7% from 23,324 to 25,002  Westbrook grew by 8% from 16,142 to 17,494  Biddeford grew by 2% and Saco by 10%; from 20,710 to 21,277 in Biddeford and from 16,822 to 18482 in Saco.

Meanwhile the overall region has grown by about 40% between 1960 and 2010 from about 183,000 in 1960, to 256,578 by 2010. This trend is similar to most urbanized areas in the United States and underscores the significant impact that transportation and land use issues, decisions and policies have on each other. While these decisions and policies are mostly made locally, their impacts span jurisdictional boundaries.

Figure 3-2 PACTS Estimated Region Vehicle Miles Traveled 2009 PM Peak Hour VMT (2009)

Principal Principal Minor Major Minor Jurisdiction Interstate Extension Arterial Arterial Collector Collector Local Total

BIDDEFORD 12,978 0 2,598 9,221 11,665 2,282 2,117 40,860 CAPE ELIZABETH 0 0 0 3,884 1,505 0 275 5,664 CUMBERLAND 20,908 0 0 1,702 7,405 1,270 2,067 33,352 FALMOUTH 40,810 0 0 11,265 10,658 771 2,853 66,356 FREEPORT 35,661 0 0 0 12,987 2,538 3,088 54,273 GORHAM 0 0 12,430 17,968 11,612 523 5,524 48,057 NORTH YARMOUTH 0 0 0 0 5,139 435 2,164 7,737 OLD ORCHARD BEACH 0 0 0 2,971 1,122 0 2,115 6,208 PORTLAND 62,368 1,461 47,730 18,993 12,616 0 4,401 147,570 SACO 45,422 0 444 12,920 15,080 372 4,227 78,464 SCARBOROUGH 44,140 3,428 10,405 29,730 7,807 7,634 5,022 108,165 SOUTH PORTLAND 27,362 8,780 10,425 20,140 4,416 0 1,016 72,139 WESTBROOK 0 3,174 15,568 9,615 6,029 0 1,741 36,127 WINDHAM 0 0 15,496 6,191 15,945 1,512 2,382 41,525 YARMOUTH 15,308 0 0 0 6,650 0 2,699 24,656 PACTS Total 304,957 16,843 115,096 144,600 130,635 17,336 41,688 771,155 O/S PACTS Total 57,069 0 39,586 28,878 73,128 21,757 25,911 246,329 Model Area Total 362,026 16,843 154,682 173,478 203,762 39,093 67,599 1,017,484

Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices 3-5 PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2010-2035 The factors behind the decentralization trend are numerous, complex and inter-related; many are beyond the scope of this transportation plan, e.g., property taxes; home and land prices; and a continuing geographic dispersion of places of employment throughout the region. One result of the decentralization trends is that we drive a lot more for commuting, shopping, business and employment, pleasure and other reasons.

As Figures 3-1, 3-2 and 3-3 collectively illustrate, although the more urban areas are growing again, population growth in the suburban areas and more rural areas has continued to grow, although at a slower rate. For transportation planning, this means that vehicle miles traveled (VMT) will continue to grow as more people commute further from where they live, to the job centers, which remain in the more developed urban areas of the PACTS region.

Figure 3-3 PACTS Region Forecasted Trend Scenario Vehicle Miles Traveled 2035 PM Peak Hour VMT for Year 2035 Trends

Principal Principal Minor Major Minor Jurisdiction Interstate Extension Arterial Arterial Collector Collector Local Total

BIDDEFORD 15,722 0 2,881 10,032 14,554 3,944 2,795 49,928 CAPE ELIZABETH 0 0 0 4,168 1,956 0 317 6,441 CUMBERLAND 24,367 0 0 2,847 11,919 2,358 3,983 45,474 FALMOUTH 52,761 0 0 14,806 15,777 1,062 4,577 88,982 FREEPORT 43,764 0 0 0 16,059 3,017 5,090 67,929 GORHAM 0 0 14,988 20,985 14,999 662 7,552 59,185 NORTH YARMOUTH 0 0 0 0 8,406 658 3,489 12,553 OLD ORCHARD BEACH 0 0 0 3,643 1,419 0 2,631 7,692 PORTLAND 78,942 1,684 52,966 22,838 16,446 0 5,329 178,206 SACO 51,635 0 478 14,550 19,529 460 5,719 92,372 SCARBOROUGH 50,563 4,322 12,664 36,719 10,574 10,016 7,270 132,128 SOUTH PORTLAND 31,779 10,735 11,687 23,965 5,626 0 1,363 85,154 WESTBROOK 0 4,130 17,874 10,910 7,745 0 2,503 43,161 WINDHAM 0 0 17,305 8,176 19,119 2,086 3,607 50,294 YARMOUTH 17,504 0 0 0 8,549 0 3,719 29,773 PACTS Total 367,037 20,870 130,844 173,638 172,677 24,262 59,945 949,272 O/S PACTS Total 75,374 0 47,857 35,124 101,576 28,976 36,348 325,255 Model Area Total 442,411 20,870 178,700 208,763 274,252 53,238 96,293 1,274,527

Source: PACTS Travel Demand Model

Perhaps a more relevant indicator of the potential consequences of projected congestion is the increase in vehicle hours traveled or VHT. From the Gorham East-West Corridor Feasibility Study, the PACTS model indicated that under the current trends scenario, VHT is growing at twice the rate of VMT. For example, because of the desire to divert around projected congestion, increase in traffic volumes on residential roads greater than on major regular commuter routes. What this means is that miles of residential roads carrying greater than 200 vehicle per hour

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(VPH) increases from 32 to 47 (a 47% increase) Commutes will take longer because of congestion and delay associated with no other choice but to drive from remote areas to job centers.

Further reinforcing the trends of decentralization are the form and pattern of commercial and residential development in the region that have increased reliance on the automobile and increased demand on the region’s roads. These development forms and patterns include: . Commercial and residential development that is occurring at a greater rate and at a much lower density in the suburban and rural towns than in the urban towns. . Although some municipalities have attempted to address auto-oriented commercial “strip”3 development in their zoning, the development form is still predominant especially in the more suburban and rural areas. . Residential and commercial development with low levels of connectivity within and between developments. It’s often perceived or truly safer to drive between origins and destinations, rather than walk because of poor connections and infrastructure. Roads usually serve two simultaneous functions: providing mobility between destinations and providing access to specific locations. If travel demand continues to increase as projected many of the region’s roads will not be able to maintain the balance between these two functions, resulting in higher levels of congestion in currently congested areas, and additionally in more locations.

Under continued trends, more drivers will have this view more often.

3 Auto-oriented commercial “strip” development is characterized by single use, single-story development set far back from the road, with parking in front, and with little or no accommodations for pedestrian or transit access,.

Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices 3-7 PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2010-2035 People, Households and Employment in the PACTS Region: 1960-20104

The Greater Portland metropolitan area remains the growth engine for the region and southern Maine. With a consistently noted high quality of life, unemployment lower than other areas of the state and relatively low congestion, the metropolitan region continues to grow not just in its suburban and rural areas, but also in the urban areas as well.

Between 1960 and 2010, the population of the current PACTS communities increased from 183,000 to 266,436 -- over 83,000 people or an increase of over 45%. The more rural communities or “non-PACTS” communities within Cumberland and York Counties also have more than doubled from over 98,000 in 1960 to over 221,000 by the 2010 Census.

The larger increase in the “non-PACTS” communities occurred even while the PACTS communities accounted for more than half of the total population of the two counties. Between 1980 and 2010, the more urban PACTS communities’ share of Cumberland and York County’s population decreased from 58% to 55%.

Figure 3-4 Population in PACTS and Non-PACTS Communities of York and Cumberland Counties

221,881 210,097 183,510 Non-PACTS 150,273 112,068 98,439

117,987 2010 100,726 2000 84,679 1990 Suburban PACTS 73,363 1980 56,959 1970 44,221 1960

148,449 141,531 139,533 Urban PACTS 131,819 134,488 138,944

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 4 In this section data for the PACTS communities is reported for entire municipalities although in eleven towns only the most heavily settled areas are within the PACTS region. The total population of just the PACTS urbanized area in 2009 was 192,094 according to the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey.

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The faster growth of communities outside of the PACTS region is even more pronounced over the 50-year period between 1960 and 2010. During this time, the population increase in the PACTS communities was 73,413 and increase of 40%.

Over the same period the smaller, more rural communities that comprise the “non-PACTS” communities more than doubled, increasing by 123,442 or over 125%. Between 1960 and 2000, the PACTS communities’ share of Cumberland and York County’s population decreased from 65% to 53%.

Within the PACTS communities, population increases have been much faster in the suburban towns than in the urban cities. This data is summarized in Figures 3-4 and displayed in greater detail in Table 3-1. Figures 3-3 and 3-4 and Table 3-1 clearly show and are illustrative of one factor behind the increasingly regional nature of travel.

Table 3-1 Population Changes in PACTS and Non-PACTS communities in York and Cumberland Counties

% Change % Change % Change Communities 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1960-2010 1990-2010 1980-2010 Biddeford 19,255 19,983 19,638 20,710 20,942 21,277 11% 8% 2% Cape Elizabeth 5,505 7,873 7,838 8,854 9,016 9,015 64% 15% 2% Cumberland 2765 4,096 5,284 5,836 7,159 7,211 161% 36% 24% Falmouth 5,976 6,291 6,853 7,610 10,310 11,185 87% 63% 47% Freeport 4,055 4,781 5,863 6,905 7,800 7,879 94% 34% 14% Gorham 5,767 7,839 10,101 11,856 14,141 16,381 184% 62% 38% North Yarmouth 1,140 1,383 1,919 2,429 3,210 3,565 213% 86% 47% Old Orchard Beach 4,580 5,404 6,291 7,789 8,856 8,624 88% 37% 11% Portland 72,566 65,116 61,572 64,358 64,249 66,194 -9% 8% 3% Saco 10,515 11,678 12,921 15,181 16,822 18,482 76% 43% 22% Scarborough 6,418 7,845 11,347 12,518 16,970 18,919 195% 67% 51% South Portland 22,788 23,267 22,712 23,163 23,376 25,002 10% 10% 8% Westbrook 13,820 14,444 14,976 16,121 16,142 17,494 27% 17% 9% Windham 4,498 6,593 11,282 13,020 14,904 17,001 278% 51% 31% Yarmouth 3,517 4,854 6,585 7,862 8,360 8,349 137% 27% 6% PACTS Total 183,165 191,447 205,182 224,212 242,257 256,578 40% 25% 14% Cumberland & York Counties* 281,604 304,459 355,455 407,722 452,354 478,805 70% 35% 17% Non-PACTS communities in York & Cumberland Counties 98,439 112,068 150,273 183,510 210,097 221,881 125% 48% 21% *Cumberland County's population has been adjusted for the secession of Otisfield - indicates urban communities

Source: U. S. Census Bureau, 2010 Note: Population data is for entire municipalities although in eleven municipalities only the most heavily settled areas are within the PACTS urbanized area. The total population in the PACTS urbanized area in 2010 was192,094.

Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices 3-9 PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2010-2035

Employment5 Although the recent national recession which began in 2008 and ongoing recovery as of this report writing has dampened employment growth in the PACTS region, the fifteen PACTS member communities comprise Maine’s leading economic region and are the economic heart of its two southernmost counties: Cumberland County and York County. Between 1980 and 2009, the PACTS communities experienced a sizable increase in wage and salary employment of 65,486 jobs, an increase of 66% percent.

The data indicate a trend of outward expansion of employment from the region’s urban centers to the developing, lower-density, suburban communities of Cumberland and York Counties. This outward spread of employment has lead to increased regional travel and longer commutes. Table 3-2 provides wage and salary employment data for the PACTS communities.

Table 3-2 Changes in Wage and Salary Employment 1980 -2010 Change 1980 - Change Change % Change % Change 1980 2000 2,009 2000 1980-2009 2000-2009 1980-2009 2000-2009 Portland 47,067 70,806 66,336 23,739 19,269 -4,470 41% -6% South Portland 11,788 23,031 22,979 11,243 11,191 -52 95% 0% Westbrook 7,599 7,237 12,109 -362 4,510 4,872 59% 67% Biddeford 8,139 11,122 10,794 2,983 2,655 -328 33% -3% Saco 5,325 6,262 6,988 937 1,663 726 31% 12% Cape Elizabeth 828 1,501 1,260 673 432 -241 52% -16% Cumberland 496 1,187 1,199 691 703 12 142% 1% Falmouth 2,357 4,585 5,835 2,228 3,478 1,250 148% 27% Freeport 2,457 6,536 7,100 4,079 4,643 564 189% 9% Gorham 2,936 3,903 4,149 967 1,213 246 41% 6% North Yarmouth 153 421 403 268 250 -18 163% -4% Old Orchard Beach 1,182 1,881 1,736 699 554 -145 47% -8% Scarborough 4,545 10,773 14,354 6,228 9,809 3,581 216% 33% Windham 2,217 5,223 5,376 3,006 3,159 153 142% 3% Yarmouth 1,454 3,638 3,411 2,184 1,957 -227 135% -6%

Total PACTS Municipalities 98,543 158,106 164,029 59,563 65,486 5,923 66% 4%

Source: Maine Department of Labor ES 202, 2nd quarter average. Note 1: Includes wage and salary employment only; does not include self-employed persons that may account for as much as one-third of total employment. Note 2: Data is for entire municipalities although in eleven towns only the most heavily settled areas are within the PACTS region.

5 In this section employment includes only wage and salary employment; it does not include self-employed individuals or sole proprietors that account for as much as one-third of total employment. The majority of these self-employed or sole proprietors are in the service sector. If these workers were included in this analysis the trends noted would be more pronounced.

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Transportation Priorities Survey of Greater Portland Residents

Prior to developing this 2010 update to Destination Tomorrow, PACTS commissioned a telephone survey with a stratified random sample of 600 residents throughout the 15 municipalities of the PACTS region. The survey’s impetus was “to gauge public opinion relating to support of transportation investment choices and establish regional investment direction in project decision making.” More specifically the survey focused on:

Current transportation modes; Current use levels of alternative transportation modes; Potential perceived influence of increased gas prices on transportation modes Evaluating attitudes of future transportation planning alternatives and priorities in the region; Perceived importance of each of nine (9) key transportation sector initiatives Prioritization of the nine (9) transportation initiatives; Demographic questions (age, gender, education, income, residence, etc.)

See Appendix B for full report.

Key Findings from the Survey of Greater Portland Residents

. Residents of the PACTS Region would like more public transportation options, especially in the areas surrounding the City of Portland (including rural areas), with regular morning and evening hours. o If options were already available, better marketing of the schedules and routes is recommended o If current public transportation services are expanded, marketing of new routes and increased hours of operation are seen as essential o If public transportation services are expanded, many residents would prefer that the vehicles purchased are environmentally friendly and or run on alternative fuels.

. A number of respondents suggested that current roads in the area be repaired and maintained.

. Residents of the PACTS region would like more biking options throughout the area. More bike lanes and safer biking options are very important to residents.

. Many respondents would like rail service in the area expanded. However, some respondents voiced concern that if gas prices decrease, investment in expanding the current service will be for naught.

*See Appendix for full survey

Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices 3-11 PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2010-2035 Regional Travel Growth, Traffic Volumes, Patterns and Conditions

Regional Travel Growth The number of annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the PACTS region and in the whole of Cumberland and York Counties has historically grown significantly faster than the increases in population or employment.6 (See pages 3-3 to 3-6.) This has been fueled by economic transformation and growth, increased automobile ownership rates, higher disposable incomes and the current patterns of development. Figure 3-5 compares the growth in VMT and population over the 40-year period between 1960 and 2000 for Cumberland County.(VMT data for 1960 was not available for York County.) Figure 3-5 is illustrative of the long-term trend of increased driving and a shift in population and employment from urban towns to suburban and rural towns in the PACTS region and throughout Cumberland and York Counties.

Figure 3-5 - VMT and Population Growth in Cumberland County

350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0 1960 1980 1990 2000 VMT Pop Source: MaineDOT, US Census Bureau

6 The survey was conducted prior to the opening of Turnpike Exits 46 and 47 that have increased intra-regional use of the Turnpike.

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Regional Traffic Volumes The growth in VMT and shifts in population and employment described in the previous sections translate into higher traffic volumes on many of the region’s roads across all functional classes of roadways. Table 3-3 shows traffic volumes at selected locations throughout the PACTS area over the last 40 years. Several of these locations – e.g., the Maine Turnpike, I-295, Route 111 and Route 114 – have more than tripled in volume. Conversely, several other locations have shown low growth during this same time period, e.g., Veteran’s Bridge and Route 1 at the Portland/ Falmouth line.

Table 3-3 Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) Volumes in the PACTS Area Location 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Congress Street east of Waldo Street 9,000 18,000 20,000 26,000 28,000 I-195 east of Route 1 (Saco) 5,000 7,000 10,000 I-295 at So. Portland/Portland line 31,000 51,000 69,000 I-295 on Tukey’s Bridge 21,000 28,000 46,000 63,000 90,000 Route 77 on Casco Bay Bridge 23,000 27,000 26,000 33,000 34,000 Maine Turnpike south of Exit 48 9,000 14,000 27,000 43,000 Maine Turnpike south of Exit 53 7,000 9,000 10,000 17,000 29,000 Maine Turnpike south of Exit 36 7,000 14,000 21,000 41,000 56,000 Maine Turnpike south of Exit 44 7,000 14,000 22,000 46,000 62,000 Route 1 on Veteran’s Bridge 15,000 23,000 24,000 Route 302 (Forest Ave). S/O Morrill's 15,000 25,000 32,000 36,000 Corner Route 1 at Portland/Falmouth line 12,000 10,000 13,000 16,000 18,000 Route 25 at Westbrook/Gorham line 7,000 8,000 9,000 15,000 17,000 Route 302 at Portland/Westbrook line 9,000 12,000 16,000 19,000 Route 1 at Scarborough/So. Portland line 14,000 14,000 12,000 18,000 19,000 Route 22/114 at Gorham/Scarborough line 6,000 15,000 19,000 22,000 Route 114 north of Gorham village 2,000 2,000 7,000 13,000 13,000 Route 111 at Biddeford City line 8,000 14,000 19,000 Route 1 north of Route 111 (Biddeford) 12,000 16,000 20,000 Source: MaineDOT, Maine Turnpike Authority, PACTS and SMRPC. Note: AADT volumes are two-way volumes that have been adjusted with MaineDOT weekly group mean factors. AADT is an estimate of average daily volume over the course of a year.

Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices 3-13 PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2010-2035 Figure 3-6 Place of Employment Journey to Work PACTS Residents

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Regional Travel Patterns

The data in this section is derived from the PACTS Travel Demand Model that estimates travel during the afternoon peak-hour period of 4:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. on a typical weekday. A large portion of the travel represents people returning home from work and includes stops between work and home. Therefore looking at the total number of trips between two communities provides a fuller understanding of travel between two communities. For example, there are approximately 3,500 trips during the 4:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. peak-hour on a typical weekday between the region’s two urban centers of Biddeford/Saco and Portland/South Portland/Westbrook.

Travel to or from the region’s five cities accounts for two-thirds (68%) of all trips made during the afternoon peak-hour period. Trips to or from Portland and South Portland dominate travel within the region and account for nearly half (49%) of all trips made during this period. In addition to travel to and from the region’s five cities, the Towns of Scarborough, Freeport and Windham each account for a sizeable portion of travel within the region. The total travel between the ten suburban towns accounts for one-quarter (25%) of the peak-hour travel within the PACTS region.

Commutes related to Employment

In the PACTS region, as in any region with more work related to office hours and not a traditional multi-shift economy of a manufacturing economy, most of the peak trips occur during the morning commutes to work, and the return trips home in the early evening.

The PACTS travel demand model used a peak PM hour (evening) scenario to analyze congestion during the busiest circumstances on an average day. With this in mind, PACTS was also interested in where PACTS residents were traveling for work: within the community they live, in an adjacent community, or to a community further than directly adjacent.

Figure 3-6 displays the number of trips to and from each of the PACTS communities, based on Census 2000 Journey to Work data. All 2010 Census data was not available as of this report writing however it is likely that these percentages are still representative of the patterns related to work journeys in the region.

.

Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices 3-15 PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2010-2035 Figure 3-8

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Region’s Roads Highways and streets are classified according to their function within a transportation system. This functional classification plays an important role in transportation studies and planning and investment decisions. As of the writing of this plan the Maine DOT in conjunction with stakeholders was reviewing its classification system. For the purposes of this Plan, the federal functional classification system has been slightly simplified into the four categories listed below.

1. Interstates – Limited access highways that are part of the Federal Interstate system, e.g., the Maine Turnpike and Interstate 295. 2. Arterials – Major highways that serve regional traffic, e.g., Elm Street (Rt. 1) in Saco, Route 25, Route 114, and Broadway in South Portland. 3. Collectors – Roads that carry traffic between arterials and local roads in residential areas, e.g., South Street in Biddeford, Shore Road in Cape Elizabeth and Ocean Avenue in Portland. 4. Local Roads – All of the remaining roads including neighborhood streets. Local roads feed into the collector roads.

In 2004 and 2005, PACTS staff, the PACTS Technical Committee and the MaineDOT completed an exhaustive review of the functional classification of each road in the PACTS region. Table 3-4 lists the miles of roadway in PACTS by federal functional class. Figure 3-8 displays the federal functional classification of the roadways in the PACTS region.

Table 3-4 Miles of Roadway by Federal Functional Classification

Functional Class Miles of Road Interstate 83 Arterial 138 Collector 193 Local 704 Total 1,118

Source: MaineDOT and PACTS, 2005

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Assessment of Current Levels of Congestion and System Performance

Major Corridors in the PACTS Area7

In Greater Portland most mobility by volume of trips is afforded along the region’s many state designated corridors. Earlier Destination Tomorrow, regional plans performed major analysis on this highway corridors and continue to inform decisions on infrastructure maintenance and investments.

The corridors can be segmented by community and/or by change in road character or function. Corridor level analysis provides a more holistic approach to long-range planning and allows for the consideration of the social environment and land use factors. Coupled with recent coordination between economic development and transportation considerations, these corridors are all within or connect Corridors of Regional Significance to Transportation (CREST).

Thirteen key regional corridors were studied in previous plans, and transportation-related issues and opportunities were identified for each corridor (see Figure 3-9 on the next page). The majority of the 66 key intersections (see next section) studied are along these corridors. The corridor analyses included a distillation of documented conditions from numerous prior MaineDOT, PACTS and municipal studies, interviews with municipal officials, analysis of available data, and from issues raised during the public outreach process.

Drivers may have one of five responses to increasing congestion. They may: 1. accept it as a “cost” of travel 2. seek alternative routes that are less congested 3. change travel times to find periods that are less congested 4. seek an alternative, less congested destination; or 5. seek alternative modes of travel.

Each of these responses may have undesirable consequences including: increased detrimental environmental impacts; increased traffic on residential or local streets with negative impacts on the areas that these roads pass through; longer periods of peak-traffic congestion; and changes in residential and/or work locations that could undermine the vitality of existing built up areas and cause an increased spread of development into less developed areas. Figure 3-10 graphically displays the results of the 2009 travel demand model intersection analyses. Figure 3-11 is a composite graphic showing the areas of congestion from the 2006 intersection analysis in addition to an identification of high crash locations, traffic growth and areas with traffic related issues.

7 In this section, “corridor” implies a specific, significant roadway with an analysis of the transportation related issues and opportunities along that roadway.

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Figure 3-9 Major Corridors in PACTS Region

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PACTS Region Afternoon Peak Hour Congestion 2009

Although congestion in the PACTS Region is relatively limited to some distinct areas as determined by the PACTS Travel Demand Model (PACTS Model), it is widespread. Most of the congestion is associated with intersection and corridors through which commuters travel from their jobs to home. The PACTS Model is an afternoon peak travel time model, which is considered between 4:00 p.m. and 5:00 pm.

The areas of congestion delay identified are:

Biddeford: Route 111, and its connection with Route 1 intersection, and the Turnpike Interchange area. Route 1 Main Street and the downtown area Saco: Route 112 and Route 1, and the Turnpike interchange area Scarborough: Route 1 at Dunstan Corner/Payne Rd. (current PACTS project) Route 1 intersections north at Route 114 and the Scarborough Connector area. South Portland: Casco Bay Bridge Route 77 into Knightville. Intersection of Broadway and Route 1. Route 1 approaching Veterans Bridge. Spring St and Running Hill Road area. Maine Mall/Turnpike Approach (Route 703) intersections. I-295 in the vicinity of Exit 3 and Exit 4. Portland: Preble Street to Marginal Way. Commercial Street from Old Port through Veterans Bridge. Franklin Street I-295 interchange area. I-295 in East Deering. Brighton Avenue west of Woodford Street. Skyway Drive Interchange with the Maine Turnpike. Riverside Drive between Warren Ave and Route 302. Gorham: The “overlap” area of Area of Routes 22 and 114. The roundabout area of the Gorham Bypass and Route 25. The intersection of Routes 25 and 114 in downtown Gorham. Westbrook: Vicinity north on County Road and at it’s the intersection of and Route 22. Intersection of Route 25/Portland Road and Saco Street. Windham: Route 302 through North Windham. Route 115 east of its intersection with Route 302. (Note: These locations are not in the PACTS Funding Area) Freeport: Downtown area around Route 1. I-295 interchanges (Exits 20 and 22)

With limited funding for roadway capacity expansion, without expanded transit service and/or other modal expansions, these areas of congestion will likely expand and others will become more apparent.

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Figure 3-10 PACTS Region Afternoon Peak Hour Congestion 2009

Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices 3-21 PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2010-2035 Intersections in the PACTS Area In recent years PACTS has invested significantly in the physical infrastructure at some of the region’s most critical roadway intersections. While intersections are a vital component of an efficiently functioning transportation system, it is no longer cost-effective to continually expand their capacity to accommodate traffic growth and associated congestion. In an effort to maintain the existing system, PACTS leaders have focused on improving the efficiency of intersections through investments in coordinated traffic signals and pursuing better land use planning. Both strategies are explored on the next few pages.

Within the Gorham East-West Corridor Feasibility Study area alone the PACTS travel demand model (the PACTS Model”) analyzed 47 intersections and 116 miles of roadway. The results of the current trend analysis found that 22 of the 47 intersections (47%) in the year 2035 would operate at a level-of-service (LOS) of E or F, an increase from today of seven intersections or an increase over 2008 of 314%.

Figure 3-11 PACTS Model: Western Suburbs Peak Hour Congestion 2009 and 2035

Source: PACTS Model – Gorham East-West Corridor Feasibility Study, 2010

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Growing travel demand on the region’s roads is also reducing their ability to continue functioning in a safe, efficient and adequate manner. Many of the region’s primary roads currently exhibit regular periods of traffic congestion and delay, especially during the peak morning and afternoon commuting periods. Additionally there are an increased number of conflicts between land uses, between increased modal choices -increasingly between bicyclists and motorists- and even between motorists. At the same time, older economic centers may be drained of their economic vitality when new development is constructed along suburban or rural roads that are currently free of such problems; these roads tend to be in the outlying areas surrounding the region’s urban core. If this trend of new development along suburban and rural roads continues in an unmanaged fashion, these arterials too will begin to experience increasing safety and congestion problems.

Figure 3-12 PACTS Model: Western Suburbs Corridors Peak Hour Congestion 2009

Source: PACTS Model - Projected corridor Level of Service, Gorham East-West Corridor Feasibility Study, 2010.

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Although Table 3-6’s data is a little dated, it is the most recent capacity analysis available for the PACTS municipalities added to PACTS after the 2000 Census.

Table 3-6 Intersection Capacity Analysis – Volume to Capacity (V/C) Ratio – Year 2004 Capacity Status V/C Ratio Location (2004) Freeport .Route 1 @ Mallet Drive At 1.00 .Route 125 @ I-295NB Ramps* (I295 Left) Over 1.86 .Route 125 @ I-295SB Ramps* (I295 Left) Over 4.53 Cumberland .Route 26 @ Blackstrap Road* (Blackstrap Road) Under 0.76 .Route 9 @ Tuttle Road Under 0.50 Saco .Route 1 @ Route 98 Under 0.69 .Bradley @ Spring* (Bradley Street) Over 2.33 .Route 112 @ Industrial Park Over 1.76 .Route 112 @ Main Street Over 1.38 .Route 1 @ Ocean Park Over 1.05 Biddeford .Route 1 @ Route 111 Over 1.20 .Route 111 @ Pool Street At 1.00 .Route 111 @ Exit 4 Over 1.48 Old Orchard .Route 98 @ Route 5* (Saco Avenue) At 1.0 Yarmouth .Route 1 @ Portland Street Near 0.91 .Route 1 @ East Main Street Under 0.77 Windham .Route 302 @ River Road Under 0.39 .Route 302 @ Route 35 Near 0.91 .Route 302 @ Whites Bridge Road Under 0.81 Status V/C Range Under Capacity v/c <= 0.85 Near Capacity 0.85 < v/c <= 0.95 At Capacity 0.95 < v/c <= 1.0 Over Capacity v/c > 1.0 Source: Highway Capacity Manual (TRB, 2000), Wilbur Smith Associates, various planning studies

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Safety: High Crash Locations and Total Crashes From drivers to transportation planners and engineers, safety is comes first. The potential for human suffering is a primary effect of crashes. Crashes also directly affect the functioning of the transportation system and lead to economic loss. Areas that experience a higher rate of crashes compared to similar locations, or more crashes of a severe nature, form a key focus of transportation planning. The MaineDOT designates areas without safe places to walk, cross the street, catch a bus, or bicycle as High Crash Locations.

Figure 3-13 Western Suburbs: Projected High Crash Location changes 2009-2035

Source: Gorham East-West Corridor Feasibility Study Crashes involving Bicyclists and Pedestrians 119 pedestrians were killed in Maine from 2000 to 2009.8 67 percent of all pedestrian fatalities occurred on roads that are eligible to receive federal funding for construction or improvement, with federal guidelines or oversight for their design. Especially when combined with unsafe street and road design, vehicle speed presents a deadly threat to pedestrians. Nearly 60 percent of all pedestrian fatalities

8 Dangerous By Design report, Transportation for America,

Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices 3-25 PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2010-2035 between 2000 to 2009 occurred on roads with speed limits of 40 mph or greater. Pedestrians have only a 15 percent chance of surviving a collision with a car traveling 40 mph.

Table 3-7 Pedalcyclist Traffic Fatalities and Fatality Rates by State, 2008 Pedalcyclist Total Resident Fatalities per Traffic Population Pedalcyclist Percent of Million State Fatalities (millions) Fatalities Total Population Maine 155 1.316 4 2.6 3.04 New Hampshire 139 1.316 2 1.4 1.52 Vermont 73 0.621 0 0 0 U.S. Total 37,261 304.060 716 1.9 2.35 Sources: Fatalities — Fatality Analysis Reporting System, NHTSA. Population — Bureau of the Census.

While Maine has recently been recognized as one of the most bike friendly states, as recently as 2008 Maine had a slightly above average pedalcyclist fatality per million rate.

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Transit: The Passenger Transportation System

Overview While the PACTS region is a relatively small urbanized area with just under 200,000 residents, Greater Portland currently has a significant transit system considering its size. The passenger transportation system includes bus, rail, ferry and air systems, and intermodal facilities to support such services.

The PACTS region is comprised of three local fixed-route bus systems, two commuter express bus services, two intercity bus carriers, one intercity rail operation, one intercity van operation, and two paratransit operators.

In recent years, PACTS’ studies -including the Portland Peninsula Traffic Study (2004), Portland Peninsula Transit Study (2009), and the Transit Coordination Study (2007) - have provided the basis for Portland and the surrounding communities to begin implementing a transit strategy as part of the solution for growing roadway congestion. It is also seen by many as an economic development tool, and for improving livability. With help from GPCOG and through the PACTS Transit Committee these initiatives are regionally developed and investment decisions are made. All transit operators, coordinating agencies and interested parties are represented on the PACTS Transit Committee.

The seven Transit Providers have made significant gains in service enhancements:

 Initial release of multi-provider “Transit Guide” map and timetable for 5 providers.  Regional route study underway – to analyze and maximize efficiency of existing routes and connections across transit providers.  Shared regional pass system between METRO and the South Portland Bus Service.  Funding of a regional Automatic Vehicle Location System – will allow operators and customers know about locations of buses through technology like smart phones.  Regional Sign and Shelter Project – this effort is developing a regional “brand” and cooperative marketing icons and materials to market a regional system.

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Several highlights of the passenger transportation system are listed below:

 Fixed-route bus services with approximately 2.7 million total annual boardings in 2010 up from 1.7 million in 2005. This is a 59% increase.  Ridership continues steady growth in commuter express bus service; intercity bus service,  Demand response service and paratransit response service is up.  Boston to Portland Downeaster passenger rail service with 474,000 boardings in 2009. Nearly double the 2005 boardings.  The Amtrak Downeaster service will be extended to Freeport and Brunswick by 2012 with additional projected 36,000 boardings.  Passenger ferry service on Casco Bay Lines up with 835,690 boardings in 2010.  In 2009, the Bay Ferries CAT that began operating ferry service in 2006 between Portland and Yarmouth, Nova Scotia ended. As of the writing of this report, a replacement service had not been contracted or even identified.  The Portland Jetport’s commercial carriers provide passenger air service to cities around the nation and overseas. A major terminal expansion got underway in 2010. In 2009, nearly 1.8 million passengers passed through the Jetport.

The new Saco Train Station with an Amtrak Downeaster train at its platform

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Local Fixed-Route Bus Transit

The Greater Portland region and PACTS area are serviced by three local, fixed route bus systems9 operate wholly or partially within the PACTS study area. They include the Greater Portland Transit District (METRO), South Portland Bus Service (SPBS), and the Biddeford, Saco and Old Orchard Beach Transit System, operators of the ShuttleBus Tri-Town Service and inter-city service between Portland from Biddeford/Saco. All services are wheelchair accessible, and can accommodate bicycles. The transit providers’ routes and service areas are shown on the next page in Figure 3-14.

Table 3-8 below shows the most recent vehicle-miles and ridership numbers:

Table 3-8 Vehicle Miles and Boardings 2009-2010

Revenue Revenue Vehicle Vehicle Vehicle- Miles Miles Miles Boardings Boardings Transit Provider 2009 2010 Growth 2009 2010 Biddeford-Saco- Old Orchard Beach Transit System Shuttlebus/ZOOM 126,948 125,112 -1,836 93,776 101,774 Casco Bay Islands Transit District 59,876 59,446 -430 760,097 835,690

METRO 780,854 778,241 -2,613 1,352,446 1,357,029

RTP 671,142 727,888 56,746 147,855 153,864 South Portland Bus Service 223,562 212,554 -11,008 220,834 218,006 York County Community Action Corporation 240,119 * * 41,949 * Total 2,102,501 1,903,241 40,859 2,616,957 2,708,312 * 2010 YCCAC numbers not available

9 Fixed route bus service is local bus service that runs on a regular schedule and route.

Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices 3-29 PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2010-2035 Figure 3-14 PACTS and Greater Portland Transit Providers service coverage

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Fixed Route Transit Providers:

Greater Portland Transit District (METRO)

METRO serves Portland, Westbrook, Falmouth and the Maine Mall area of South Portland. In 2006, the aging METRO bus fleet began to be replaced with air conditioned, clean energy, compressed natural gas buses. Further replacement buses were acquired in 2009, and new buses are expected in 2011.

METRO operates eight routes in all, Monday through Saturday and a combination of three routes on Sundays. Service extends from 5:30 am to 10:45 pm weekdays and Saturdays. There is no service on Sundays. All buses are lift equipped and wheelchair accessible and have racks for bicycles.

Between 1993 and 1999, METRO ridership fluctuated between 1.1 and 1.2 million. By 2010 METRO ridership was approaching 1.4 million, a 17-percent increase since 1999. In the summer and fall, route deviations provide service to arriving cruise ships, a partnership with the University of Southern Maine and other programs account for the remainder of the increase.

South Portland Bus Service (SPBS) The South Portland Bus Service provides fixed route service throughout South Portland, into downtown Portland, and into Scarborough along the shopping area off Payne Road near the Maine. The service operates on weekdays between the hours of 6:30 a.m. and 10:45 p.m., and Saturdays from 7:00 a.m. until 6:30 p.m. Ridership of 218,000 trips were provided in 2010. The South Portland Bus service connects with the METRO and ShuttleBus/ZOOM at the Maine Mall and downtown Portland. All buses are lift equipped and wheelchair accessible and have racks for bicycles In addition, the City of South Portland participates in a regional, complementary paratransit program to provide mobility for

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passengers whose disability interferes with their ability to use the fixed-route system. This service provides over 4000 trips per year.

ShuttleBus-ZOOM (Biddeford/Saco/Old Orchard Beach Transit System)

The Shuttlebus provides three separate services in the Biddeford, Saco, and Old Orchard Beach area. The Tri- Town Service provides fixed route service through the built-up portions of Biddeford, Saco, and Old Orchard Beach. Service is provided every half-hour Monday through Friday, and every hour on the weekends. In 2005 there were 66,000 boardings for the Shuttlebus service

The Intercity Service connects Biddeford, Saco, and Old Orchard Beach with Scarborough, South Portland, and Portland. There are six runs Monday-Friday, and four on the weekends. The Intercity Service provided rides for 32,000 passengers in 2005. The Seasonal Trolley Service in Old Orchard Beach typically provides daily service between the third weekend in June and Labor Day. The trolley services many destinations within the town, including the Downeaster train station. The OOB Trolley had 40,000 boardings in 2005.

In 2010, there were 101,774 boardings for all fixed-route bus services.

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Intercity Rail, Bus and Van

Intercity Passenger Rail –The Amtrak Downeaster Ridership has grown steadily over the decade of service since the Amtrak Downeaster passenger rail service was successfully re- introduced to Maine in 2001. The Downeaster operates with a high level of customer satisfaction and the best on time performance in the nation. Ridership was over 250,000 in 2005 and exceeded 474,000 passengers by 2009. The Northern New England Passenger Rail Authority (NNEPRA) operator of the Downeaster secured $35 million in 2010 to expand service north to Freeport and Brunswick.

NNEPRA is currently developing a plan to make improvements to its operations and associated rail infrastructure to reduce travel time between Portland and Boston down to 2 hours and 10 minutes.

Intercity Bus and Van Concord Coach, Greyhound/Vermont Transit, and Mermaid Transportation are the three primary inter-city bus and van carriers serving the Greater Portland region. Concord targets the business travelers with express service; Greyhound/Vermont Transit operates local service; and Mermaid focuses on airport patrons, with direct service between the Portland, Boston and Manchester Airports.

Concord Coach offers 15 daily round-trips from Portland to Bangor (including service to Maine’s mid-coast) and to Boston, with stops at South Station and Logan Airport. Ridership continues to increase despite the recent start up of rail service.

Greyhound/Vermont Transit provides bus service between Bangor, Portland and Boston, but with more stops along the route. Greyhound offers eight daily round-trips to Boston. Greyhound also provides daily bus trips between Lewiston and Portland and Brunswick and Portland.

Mermaid provides direct van transportation between Portland and Logan Airport and Manchester Airport five times daily. Mermaid also serves the Portland Transportation Center making trips to Lewiston, Auburn and Brunswick.

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Commuter Bus

ZOOM Turnpike Express The ZOOM service is operated by ShuttleBus, and is an express commuter service between Biddeford, Saco, and Portland, running primarily on the Maine Turnpike. The service – which was started in 1998 – runs Monday through Friday, with twelve runs per day during the morning and afternoon commuting times. Stops are located at the Biddeford Park & Ride lot at Exit 32, the Saco Park & Ride lot at Exit 36, and several stops in downtown Portland. Ridership in 2010 was 45,000.

Subscription Carpool and Vanpool

GO MAINE GO MAINE Commuter Connections is the nationally recognized statewide commuter services program sponsored by the Maine Department of Transportation and the Maine Turnpike Authority and administered by the Greater Portland Council of Governments. GO MAINE provides commuters with carpool ride matching, express vanpools, Emergency Ride Home Guarantee, the annual Commute Another Way Day transportation event, and outreach and assistance to employers. GO MAINE services, including its new interactive ride matching system, may be accessed online at (www.gomaine.org) or 800-280-RIDE. GO MAINE has more than 10,000 registrants, 340 carpools and 21 vanpools in its commuter database. The program annually serves more than 2,000 employers, enrolling commuters at their workplace, with the goal of continuing to expand the carpool and vanpool section of Maine’s transportation system.

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Paratransit and Demand Response Regional Transportation Program (RTP)

Established in 1976, RTP was formed by combining the transportation services provided by the Portland Chapter of the American Red Cross, York-Cumberland Senior Services and the Social Services of the Greater Portland Transit District. Today, RTP is a United Way agency that provides low-cost transportation to the elderly, social service agency clients, the economically disadvantaged and persons with disabilities throughout Cumberland County.

With a fleet of 34+ lift-equipped buses and vans, 45 agency certified drivers and a volunteer program that involves more than 50 drivers, RTP serves over 4,500 people countywide each year, providing more than a 1,000 rides a day to people who need to get to medical appointments, grocery shopping, work and other important places. RTP runs 34 different routes across Cumberland County each day, doing rider pickups and drop-offs.

RTP serves 26 towns in the county, and several beyond the county line. Some of the communities served include Portland, South Portland, Scarborough, Cape Elizabeth, Westbrook, Gorham, Falmouth, Yarmouth, Freeport, Windham, Standish, Casco, Bridgton and more. In 2010, RTP provided over 153,000 trips via bus, van volunteers, and family/friends. This is up from 140,000 in 2005.

York County Community Action Corporation (YCCAC) - Transportation YCCAC provides county-wide door-to-door transportation both for residents funded through a variety of state funded programs and for the general public. Service is provided in Biddeford, Saco and Old Orchard Beach for trip destinations within those towns and to Scarborough, South Portland and Portland, all on an advance reservation basis. Currently, the Job Access service provided by YCCAC (WAVE, Wheels to Access Vocation and Education) does not operate in this urbanized area.

Independent Transportation Network (ITN) ITN is a non-profit, fee-based service that provides door-to-door service to seniors and to persons with visual impairments. The service operates seven days a week, 24 hours a day from Wells to Freeport.

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Passenger Ferry and Air Service

Casco Bay Island Transit District

The Casco Bay Island Transit District (CBITD) is a quasi-municipal, nonprofit corporation owned and operated by the residents of six Casco Bay islands. Islands served by the CBITD are Peaks, Little Diamond, Great Diamond and Cliff Islands located in Portland; Long Island located in the Town of Long Island; and the Town of Chebeague Island.. CBITD had 835,690 in 2010, down from 930,000 in 2005. This can at least be partially attributed to the recent recession.

CBITD operates five USCG inspected vessels; three are passenger only vessels, one carries passengers and one vehicle, and one carries passengers and up to 10 vehicles. CBITD operates 365 days a year with a minimum of five trips per day to the Downbay Islands and 15 trips a day to Peaks Island from its terminal in Portland.

As part of the 2009 stimulus package, CBITD received funding for a second new vessel which will be similar to the 399 passenger ferry Aucocisco III pictured below. All of CBITD’s vessels are now fully handicapped accessible. In the near future, CBITD will expand the Casco Bay Ferry Terminal to enhance pedestrian access and safety and to improve intermodal connections and passenger amenities. The new vessel is scheduled to be in service in 2012.

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Portland International Jetport The Portland International Jetport has a 7,200-foot runway and can accommodate most aircraft. Eight commercial carriers currently provide passenger service to the Jetport. By 2010, the Jetport served 16 non-stop markets and provide convenient connections to most U.S. cities. This is up from 12 non-stop city connections in 2005. Currently, there are over 140 flights per day either into or out of the Jetport. In 2009 the Jetport served a record number of nearly 1.8 million passengers.

The new terminal expansion project will nearly double the size of the terminal, adding 137,000 square feet of space. Airport officials say that will allow the terminal to handle an anticipated increase in passengers in the coming decades.

Artist’s rendering ofthe new and expanded Portland Jetport terminal

In addition to the terminal expansion, the Portland Jetport is currently in the process of lengthening its crosswind runway, which bisects the primary runway along the Fore River at the eastern edge of the airport.

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PACTS Region: Summary of Intermodal Issues and Opportunities

As a regional hub for the State of Maine and northern New England, the Greater Portland region provides some of the best opportunities for intermodal connectivity to increase mobility and accessibility for people as well as for the movement of goods. This section summarizes these opportunities as well as the intermodal issues facing the region. Previously completed reports and studies, technical analysis, and comments received during the Plan’s public outreach process were also used in developing this summary.

Intermodal Facilities

Key intermodal facilities in Portland serve many of the region’s passenger transportation systems. Destination Tomorrow recommends the creation of additional facilities and continued investment in existing facilities in the following areas: pedestrian, bicycle and transit connections; access for persons with disabilities; better and consistent signage, especially for wayfinding and service information; and sufficient parking for patrons and visitors. To be successful, these investments will need to provide a level of comfort and convenience, a perceived affordability that is competitive with the private automobile, and also be time competitive with the private automobile.

Improvements to intermodal facilities will help the area achieve a seamless intermodal transportation system. The Plan’s recommendations will also act in concert with the actions recommended by the MaineDOT’s Maine Strategic Passenger Transportation Plan. The

3-38 Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2010-2035 overarching focus of the MaineDOT plan is to proactively address personal transportation, especially with respect to satisfying travel needs that could be met without the use of private automobiles.

The PACTS region’s intermodal facilities have several unmet needs, most notably:

 The train and bus station, known as the Portland Transportation Center (PTC) has poor pedestrian access and a parking capacity issue. It is located near the I-295 interchange at Exit 5. Although access is excellent for within the region, with easy access from all directions, it is difficult to access the city as a pedestrian. The PTC is serviced by the METRO bus, but service can be limited and the METRO bus does not run on Sundays. Although there is no sidewalk from the PTC to Congress Street, PACTS has funded a sidewalk to Congress Street to be constructed in 2011-2012.  The Greyhound Bus Terminal has limited parking and is in need of easily accessible parking within a reasonable distance. It is adjacent to the METRO bus routes.  The METRO Downtown Transit Center Pulse lacks space for non-METRO providers, and has no inside at bus stop shelter for waiting patrons.  The Casco Bay Ferry Terminal needs better passenger and freight flows, and a larger waiting area.

Improving the Movement of People Although public passenger transportation handles a substantial number of riders on a regular basis, the total number is small relative to those who travel via the private automobile. The dominance of the automobile as the primary means of travel is due to the personal freedom and convenience it provides and, to a lesser degree, to the relatively few viable alternatives that exist. For the majority of Maine residents, the use of public transit for daily activities is unavailable, inconvenient, or inefficient in terms of the amount of time needed to reach their destinations. Estimates place trips-to-work travel at approximately 20 percent of total daily travel. The remaining 80 percent includes shopping, recreation, work-related travel, personal and family

Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices 3-39 PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2010-2035 business, education and miscellaneous travel. Investments that improved service and that added frequency could make transit a more viable and attractive option as roadway congestion increases and/or fuel prices rise.

Public Transportation Fixed route bus service is the backbone of the region’s public transportation system. Evening bus service is for the most part too infrequent, and the service area and service times across transit providers have been steadily reduced in response to decreases in municipal, state and federal operating budgets. Similarly, in response to budget pressure, Sunday bus service has been discontinued.

Four years after the completion of the Regional Transit Coordination Study, there is a need for increased coordination between, or consolidation of, transit providers. The plan is being implemented gradually with many tangible products such as the Greater Portland Transit Guide with Route Map and schedule for five systems and a shared regional bus pass between METRO and the South Portland Bus Service. This work continues with a regional branding and marketing plan in development, a shared bus stop sign and shelter program, as well as an automatic vehicle location (AVL) system being planned and already funded.

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Waterborne Transportation The MaineDOT supports the development of high-speed ferry services to Portland. The City of Portland opened Ocean Gateway on the Eastern Waterfront in 2008 achieving the goal of separating the Port’s passenger and freight operations.

In 2010 funding through a bond with match made possible the expansion of the berthing for cruise ships with the expansion of a second, “mega-berth” to be built in 2011. This larger berth will be able to service larger cruise ships at the expanded and more convenient passenger ferry terminal.

Park and Ride Lots Park-and-ride lots in Gorham and Windham will be needed to increase the ridership of bus service, should it be extended to Gorham and Windham. One park-and-ride lot was constructed at the roundabout at the junction of the Gorham Bypass and Route 114 at its southerly near South Gorham. There is inadequate parking at the West Falmouth Crossing for the bus service there indicating a need for a park-and-ride lot. In order to promote more transit use in the region, and on the Portland peninsula in particular, park-and-ride lots should be established along the major arterials emanating from Portland.

Passenger Rail/Commuter Services To build upon the successful Amtrak Downeaster passenger rail service to and from Portland, additional rail equipment and landside infrastructure will be necessary. This will include rail equipment, maintenance and storage facilities, additional parking, waiting and platform areas, feeder bus service and pedestrian linkages. Other opportunities to increase the convenience of the service, such as increasing the speed of the train, also warrant further consideration.

The Portland North Portland North Alternative Modes Transportation Study, or the "Portland North" project will be concluding in 2011. In this study, the Maine Department of Transportation (MaineDOT) is considering implementing either rail or Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) service between Portland and destinations north of Portland. Bus service would be provided in the I-295 and I-95 corridors, and the following three rail corridors will be analyzed for potential funding under the Federal Transit Administration's (FTA) Small Starts program:

Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices 3-41 PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2010-2035 1. Portland to Yarmouth 2. Portland to Brunswick 3. Portland to Auburn

The Downeaster qualified for CMAQ (Congestion Mitigation Air Quality) funding for the first three years of operation to cover the difference between operating costs and firebox revenues. This dedicated funding mechanism was continued for an additional three years with reauthorization of SAFETEA-LU.

Despite the popularity of the service, an inconvenient schedule and the infrequency of service are fundamental issues that have weighed on the growth in Downeaster ridership. Remarkably, this growth has increased almost every year. The Downeaster business plan includes a number of strategies to increase rail ridership including:  Secure a long-term funding source for capital and operating needs.  Increase the number of daily round trips between Portland and Boston.  Modify schedule to address market demands and increase ridership.  Improve infrastructure to expand passenger service from Portland to Brunswick.  Procure a third train set that would allow increased frequency and flexibility of service.  Coordinate with privately operated Brunswick-Rockland service.

Pedestrian Facilities Needs for the pedestrian system include: improved access to transit, improved safety along and across arterials, increased pedestrian orientation in new development or redevelopment, and increased circulation within existing and new developments and between developments.

Sidewalk deficiencies are widespread in the non-urban PACTS towns. Many subdivisions are built without sidewalks, and even those with sidewalks often lack connections to other activity centers. Towns are often using off-road trail systems and greenbelts to connect activity centers instead of relying on the long-term development of sidewalk networks. Safe, convenient pedestrian infrastructure is a key facilitator of transit and transit-oriented development.

In early 2011, The City of Portland adopted a “Complete Streets” policy in support of “curb-to- curb” accommodations for all modes where appropriate. Bedford Street which bisects the USM campus in Portland is a good example of a complete street for all modes, with wide separated

3-42 Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2010-2035 sidewalks, a pedestrian refuge at median in the middle of each crosswalk, and traffic calming measures that notify automotive drivers that bicyclists and pedestrians are sharing the right-of- way.

Bicycle Facilities Needs for the bicycle system include: increased safety for bicyclists by providing bicycle accommodations on roadways, increased bicycle storage capacity at activity centers and intermodal centers, and identified bicycle-friendly routes to and from intermodal centers. Relatively simply corrective actions such as signage and paint may be an effective way to eliminate many of the deficiencies in the bicycle facilities system.

In 2009 PACTS completed an update to its Regional Bicycle and Pedestrian Plan which included a region-wide Pedestrian Environment Analysis, Top Most Cost and Time Effective Regional Pedestrian-Bike Improvements identification, Top Areas/Issues of Most Concern analysis, and updated Design Guideline. Further implementation will work toward achieving the goals for pedestrian and bicycle facilities and paths/trails. Safe, convenient bicycle infrastructure is a key facilitator of transit and transit-oriented development.

Improving the Movement of Goods The movement of goods is critical for the continued economic vitality of the Greater Portland region. Goods may be raw materials used by the region’s processors and manufacturers, or they may be finished or processed goods ready for shipment to their final destinations. Goods may be shipped or received via water, rail, highway or air and any combination of these means.

Sea to Land Connection The Port of Portland is the largest seaport in New England in terms of petroleum tonnage. Its position as a successful seaport will require safe efficient connections to landside distribution systems – both highway and rail. Most often these connections are made via truck. If not managed properly, truck traffic may have negative impacts on the residential or commercial areas that it passes through. The SEA-21 federal legislation focuses on the maritime network and includes money for the mitigation of the impacts of trucks and port operations on adjacent areas.

Goods arriving in port by water may often be affordably and efficiently shipped via rail, particularly bulk commodities. This makes rail access to the port critical to avoid the need for

Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices 3-43 PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2010-2035 short distance hauling by truck to remote railhead locations. Recently funding was secured to make improvements on the International Marine Terminal (IMT), part of the State’s 3-Port Plan. There is a need for the development of expanded container cargo storage and throughput/loading capacity at the IMT. Portland has been designated a Marine Highway segment of the M-95 corridor and is now eligible to receive federal funds to support operations.

Air to Land Connection The Portland Jetport is a crucial component in the region’s participation in the evolving global economy. Air cargo is typically high value-low weight and supports many high wage-high tech jobs. The ability to move air cargo into, through, and out of the Jetport efficiently and rapidly is critical to the continued success of the Jetport’s freight operations. Existing conditions between the Jetport and the regional highway system need to be monitored to ensure continuation of an already efficiently operating system. There is also a need for expanded airfreight facilities at the Jetport.

Rail to Land Connection As traditional manufacturing and natural resource extraction and processing have declined, rail service, rail accessibility and the use of rail as a means of goods movement has also diminished. Current rail service can provide affordable service for larger bulk commodities that are less time sensitive.

When direct rail access is not available to a facility, rail-intermodal service offers businesses the opportunity to achieve some of the savings in shipping via rail service. Containerization, piggy back, break bulk, and other less-than-carload service variations are available to provide businesses an alternative to truck only shipments.

3-44 Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2010-2035

2035: Future Population, Employment and Land Use Development Trends

Introduction Future Forecasted Trends 2010-2035

 Population increases 26% or by 81,000 more This updated section for the Year 2035 people in the 28-municipality PACTS Model presents an overview of the forecast changes area. In the 15-PACTS communities these in population, households and employment increases equate to 38,000 more people. for the 15 PACTS municipalities. Included in  Employment increases 20% or over 34,700 the forecast are data at the urban and suburban more jobs in the 28-municipality PACTS level, and for the individual municipalities. Model area. In the 15-PACTS communities The data are taken from the forecast these increases equate to 32,513. developed during the Gorham East-West  By 2035, assuming gas prices do not Corridor Feasibility Study, which required dramatically increase, or there is wide updating data for the entire PACTS model adoption of fuel-efficient vehicles, traffic area. congestion and safety problems will continue to worsen The forecast was developed from county-level  During the p.m. peak-hour, vehicle miles control economic forecasts developed in 2009 traveled (VMT) and vehicle hours traveled by the University of Southern Maine’s Center (VHT) increase 25% and 33%, respectively, indicating more congestion. for Business and Economic Research through  Transit: Unless embraced as an economic its REMI model. (Appendix “V” contains the development tool, with major investments forecast methodology and detailed data.) in its infrastructure, public transportation will remain a small percentage of all trips. It is important to recognize that the forecasts Land uses are generally not supportive are generally an extension and continuation of today. current trends into the future. The forecasts  With these trend assumptions the areas provide a context for what the future shape of where we live, work and shop will continue the region’s transportation system could be to spread out from each other and our should current trends continue. The forecasts urban centers. are not a description of a desired future.

Rendering of the future Veterans Memorial Bridge, scheduled to open 2012

Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices 3-45 PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2010-2035

PACTS Region 2035: Population and Households Growth

Over the next 25 years the Greater Portland metropolitan area will continue to grow at the fastest rates in the State of Maine. Between 2009 and 2035 the populations of the 15 communities that comprise the PACTS urbanized area are forecast to grow from 250,521 persons to 300,246, representing an increase of 20% or 49,725.

As documented in earlier plans, faster growth will occur in the outlying towns if current policies and incentives are continued. It is estimated that in the outer “Model Area Towns” the nominal expansion in population will be 31,289; however this represents a 50% increase in population over today. This means more workers commuting from the less dense and developed areas into the more developed job centers. The economic cost of living further away from jobs is just becoming apparent as gas prices have exceeded $3 and even $4 in recent years. Although housing is more affordable in the suburban and rural communities, when factoring together the cost of housing (H) plus the costs of transportation by car (T), the combined costs of H+T often exceed the cost of living in more urbanized area.

Table 3-9: 2009-2035 Population and Household Forecasts for the PACTS Model Area Population Households Municipality 2009 2035 Net Change % Change 2009 2035 Net Change % Change PACTS Urban Portland 63,153 62,942 -211 0% 28,990 31,677 2,687 9% South Portland 23,824 25,795 1,971 8% 10,419 12,143 1,724 17% Westbrook 16,373 17,430 1,057 6% 7,017 8,541 1,524 22% Biddeford 21,598 20,699 -899 -4% 8,758 9,618 860 10% Saco 18,185 21,313 3,128 17% 7,442 9,623 2,181 29% Subtotal 143,133 148,179 5,046 4% 62,626 71,602 8,976 14% PACTS Suburban Cape Elizabeth 8,813 8,724 -89 -1% 3,544 3,943 399 11% Cumberland 7,513 11,859 4,346 58% 2,675 4,622 1,947 73% Falmouth 10,668 14,301 3,633 34% 4,239 6,310 2,071 49% Freeport 8,188 9,439 1,251 15% 3,478 4,341 863 25% Gorham 15,511 19,988 4,477 29% 4,894 8,402 3,508 72% North Yarmouth 3,541 6,574 3,033 86% 1,299 2,552 1,253 96% Scarborough 19,017 38,559 19,542 103% 7,611 13,317 5,706 75% Windham 16,651 22,957 6,306 38% 6,305 9,491 3,186 51% Yarmouth 8,152 8,935 783 10% 3,477 4,259 782 22% Old Orchard Beach 9,334 10,732 1,398 15% 4,669 6,198 1,529 33% Subtotal 107,388 152,067 44,679 42% 42,191 63,435 21,244 50% PACTS Towns 250,521 300,246 49,725 20% 104,817 135,037 30,220 29% Model Area Towns 62,345 93,634 31,289 50% 23,803 38,773 14,970 63% Total Model Area 312,866 393,881 81,015 26% 128,620 173,810 45,190 35% Table includes only a portion of Brunswick

3-46 Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2010-2035

Figure 3-15 Forecast Numeric and Percent Population Increases

Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices 3-47 PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2010-2035 Table 3-10: 2035 Employment Forecast for the PACTS Model Area Employment Municipality 2009 2035 Net Change % Change PACTS Urban Portland 66,336 78,426 12,090 18% South Portland 22,979 28,564 5,585 24% Westbrook 12,109 13,148 1,039 9% Biddeford 10,794 12,152 1,358 13% Saco 6,988 8,224 1,236 18% Subtotal 119,206 140,514 21,308 18% PACTS Suburban Cape Elizabeth 1,260 1,535 275 22% Cumberland 1,199 1,652 453 38% Falmouth 5,835 7,318 1,483 25% Freeport 7,100 8,665 1,565 22% Gorham 4,149 6,120 1,971 47% North Yarmouth 403 472 69 17% Scarborough 14,354 16,837 2,483 17% Windham 5,376 6,486 1,110 21% Yarmouth 3,411 4,276 865 25% Old Orchard Beach 1,736 2,666 930 54% Subtotal 44,823 56,027 11,204 25% PACTS Towns 164,029 196,542 32,513 20% Model Area Towns 11,584 13,772 2,188 19% Total Model Area 175,613 210,314 34,701 20% Table includes only a portion of Brunswick

Regional Employment Growth10 From the forecast developed in 2009 for the Gorham East-West Corridor Feasibility Study, total employment growth of 34,702 jobs is forecast for the fifteen PACTS communities between 2009 and 2025. This forecast was required to act as a surrogate for a 2035 forecast usually put out by the State. The forecast represents a 209% increase from 175, 613 jobs in 2009, up to 210,314 projected in 2035

The deep economic recession that began in 2008 and now known as “The Great Recession” has had important consequences for the region and the historic trend toward further employment decentralization. As previously mentioned, the trend for continued growth in the suburbs is forecast to continue. Absolute job growth forecast to be greatest in the area’s five cities an increase of 21,308 or about 61% of all jobs is projected. Job growth continues in the area’s suburbs, but perhaps at a lesser rate than in the previous decades. For the suburban communities, an increase of 11,204 jobs is forecast, or about 34% of the jobs. The difference lies in the fact that there are 13 non-PACTS communities that comprise the rest of the PACTS Model area. The job growth for these 13 communities is forecast at 2,188 or 19%,

10 In this section employment is represented by total employment that differs from the wage & salary employment used in the existing conditions section. Total employment includes wage and salary employment, sole proprietors and self-employed and may be as much as one-third more than the total wage and salary employment.

3-48 Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2010-2035 slightly faster than the combined rate of 18% for the region’s five urban communities and further supporting anticipation of a continuation of the trend employment decentralization.

Figure 3-16: 2035 Employment Forecast for PACTS Model Area

25,000

21,308

20,000 18%

15,000 Net Change 11,204 % Change 10,000

25% 5,000 2,188

19% 0 PACTS Urban PACTS Suburban Model Area Towns

Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices 3-49 PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2010-2035

Future Choices for the PACTS Region:

During the development of the land use and employment forecasts for the Gorham East-West Study and the 2010 update to the Destination Tomorrow Plan, planners from Gorham, Portland, Scarborough, South Portland, Westbrook and Windham identified on maps growth areas for residential, commercial, and mixed use growth. Further analysis was done to assess areas that could accommodate more compact growth for the land use alternatives in the study.

Regional Planners from PACTS, GPCOG and the Maine Turnpike Authority and the Maine DOT provided input for these scenarios for planned improvements, problem areas, and areas of opportunity. All of this was done in order to identify potential areas where land use and transportation planning and investments could be coordinated to support a land use pattern which would be more suited for walkable and bikeable neighborhoods, and to test if this pattern could provide relief on the current demands of the transportation system.

To reduce the growth of traffic congestion without adding new road capacity, the study analyzed:

Land use: The potential effect of changing development patterns from the current low-density trend to a more focused higher density pattern throughout the study area reduces trips and trip lengths. Working with regional and municipal planners, high growth areas were identified and assigned a customized, denser housing/jobs mix. Over the 25-year study period, this potential change proved to have a significant positive effect, not just in terms of traffic management, but on other stakeholder-defined measures such as preserving open space and creating jobs-to-housing proximity.

Public Transit: The second part of the study, which tested the potential of adding a robust regional transit system over time, also showed effectiveness in reducing additional congestion and intersection-related problems. The addition of transit also enhances development potential in higher density areas.

Road Improvements: The final step in the study has been the evaluation of providing road improvements in key problem areas that remain after land use change and transit improvements are underway. The area of biggest concern is the region where South Portland, Scarborough and Gorham intersect. Two possible solutions have been identified, one that widens existing roads and one that would require constructing a new road. Both provide generally the same level of transportation benefits, but would have different environmental impacts and funding needs.

3-50 Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices PACTS REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN 2010-2035

Transportation Planning 2010 to 2035

The experience and knowledge gained from the Gorham East-West Corridor Study planning process led to a set of interrelated recommendations in three coordinated areas:

1. Land use policy changes 2. Expanded or enhanced transit improvements, frequency, and geographic coverage. 3. Targeted roadway improvements.

Going forward, these coordinated strategies can make a significant difference for the region’s future mobility while maintaining our rural character and providing a basis for economic growth in the PACTS region. This type of planning will be required moving forward, in light of decreasing revenues for transportation infrastructure, increasing energy costs, and to provide more transportation choices for residents and visitors to the Greater Portland region.

Chapter 3. Present Conditions, Trends, and Future Choices 3-51