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Resource Conflict Across Melbourne's Largest Domestic Water Supply

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Resource Conflict Across Melbourne's Largest Domestic Water Supply Resource Conflict Across Melbourne’s Largest Domestic Water Supply Catchment November 2018 Chris Taylor, David Blair, Heather Keith, and David Lindenmayer The Australian National University Fenner School of Environment and Society Recommended citation: Taylor C, Blair D, Keith H, and Lindenmayer DB. (2018) Resource Conflict Across Melbourne’s Largest Domestic Water Supply Catchment. Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, https://doi.org/10.25911/5beb630e45d35 Previous page: Clearfell logging in the Thomson Catchment with the Thomson Reservoir in the background (Photo: C. Taylor) Table of contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 2 Methods .................................................................................................................................................. 3 Study area ..................................................................................................................................... 3 Land tenure ................................................................................................................................... 6 Forest types ................................................................................................................................... 6 Forest management and logging .......................................................................................................... 12 Scenarios for water yield and forest disturbance modeling ....................................................... 12 Modelling catchment water yields ....................................................................................................... 14 Results ................................................................................................................................................... 17 Disturbance across the catchment ............................................................................................. 17 Modeled water yields ................................................................................................................. 20 Discussion.............................................................................................................................................. 21 Relationships between logging and water yield ......................................................................... 21 Previous studies modelling water yield changes in ash forests .................................................. 22 Caveats .................................................................................................................................................. 23 Policy recommendations ...................................................................................................................... 24 Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................... 25 References ............................................................................................................................................ 25 Figures Figure 1. Location of the Thomson Water Supply Catchment ................................................................ 3 Figure 2. Melbourne Water Supply Network .......................................................................................... 5 Figure 3. Average weekly inflow to four major water supply reservoirs: Thomson, Upper Yarra, Maroondah and O’Shannassy ............................................................................................... 5 Figure 4. Land tenure across the Thomson Catchment .......................................................................... 7 Figure 5. Tree species distributions across the Thomson Catchment .................................................... 8 Figure 6. Annual rainfall over the Thomson Catchment with Ash Forest extent ................................... 9 Figure 7. Mountain Ash forest .............................................................................................................. 10 Figure 8. Alpine Ash forest .................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 9. Shining Gum Forest ................................................................................................................ 11 Figure 10. Clearfell logging in the Thomson Catchment ....................................................................... 13 Figure 11. Kuczera relationship for water yield from regrowth ash forest after bushfire. .................. 15 Figure 12. Logging history (post 1967) and the current Timber Release Plan Overlay in the Thomson Catchment ........................................................................................................... 16 Figure 13. Temporal distribution of clearfell logging in the Thomson Catchment ............................... 17 Figure 14. Forest age class distribution across the Thomson Catchment19 Figure 15. Water yield runoff for four Scenarios .................................................................................. 20 Figure 16. Water yield gain/loss for four Scenarios .............................................................................. 21 i Tables Table 1. Water storage levels: 27 October 2018 .................................................................................... 4 Table 2. On-stream water storage levels: 27 October 2018 ................................................................... 4 Table 3. Land tenure across the Thomson Catchment (forested areas excluding water) ...................... 6 Table 4. Forest type areas across the Thomson Catchment ................................................................. 12 Table 5. A brief overview of the four scenarios modelled in this study. .............................................. 14 Table 6. Parameters used in equation 2 ............................................................................................... 15 Table 7. Area (ha) of disturbance since 1939 across Ash forest in all state forest (unprotected) and the Baw Baw National Park (protected) sections of the Thomson Catchment. ............. 18 Table 8. Average annual area of forest that was subject to clearfell logging ....................................... 18 Table 9. Modelled water yield runoff from the ash forests across the Thomson Catchment .............. 18 Table 10. Reduction in water yield as a result of logging ash forests comparing Scenarios ................ 18 ii Abstract Quantifying the effects of competition for natural resources between different sectors and interests is a key part of natural resource management globally. A major form of land use conflict in natural forests is between water production and timber production. Here we explore trade-offs in water yield resulting from logging in the forested water catchments north-east of Melbourne – the second largest urban settlement in Australia with a current population of five million. It has long been understood that logging significantly decreases water yields in Melbourne’s water catchments. However, the extent of losses of water yield from past logging have rarely been documented. Here, we model changes in water yield in Melbourne’s largest single catchment, the Thomson Catchment, resulting from: (1) past forest management activities (especially clearfell logging), and (2) future forest management scenarios. Our particular focus was on the effects of logging on water yields from ash-type eucalypt forests. This is because these areas have the greatest impact on water runoff due to them receiving the most rainfall and being the forest types subject to the most intensive and extensive industrial logging. We modelled four key scenarios: − Scenario (1) Historical logging of the Thomson Catchment with continued logging in the future (current reality/status quo); − Scenario (2) If there had been no logging and none was planned (past, present or future) in the Thomson Catchment; − Scenario (3) Logging ceasing in 1967 (as specified under the first Wood Pulp Agreement Act 1936 – but which never occurred); and − Scenario (4) Impacts of the past logging, but with cessation of logging in 2018. Our initial spatial analysis revealed that 42% of the ash-type eucalypt forests in the Thomson Catchment have been logged. Moreover, there are 4,000 hectares of Ash forest assigned for logging in the next 5 years under the existing Timber Release Plan for the Central Highlands region. Our analyses revealed that the current (in 2018) reduction in water yield due to historical logging of the ash forests across the Thomson Catchment exceeds 15,000 ML annually. This loss is projected to increase to nearly 35,156 ML by 2050. Under Scenario (3), where logging would have ceased in 1967 if the first Wood Pulp Agreement 1936 was implemented, the loss in water yield by 2018 was projected to be 1,079 ML, annually. This loss is a result of logging occurring prior to 1967. This was modelled to remain constant through to 2050. Under Scenario (4), where logging ceases in 2018, we projected that approximately 20,149 ML would have been returned to the Thomson Catchment by 2050 compared with Scenario (2) of no historical
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