Yearbook 2003 For

1 LITHUANIAN POLITICAL SCIENCE YEARBOOK 2003 2 Published by INSTITUTE O INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE VILNIUS UNIVERSITY Vokieèiø str. 10 LT-01130 Vilnius LITHUANIA Tel. (370-5) 251 4130 !ax. (370-5) 251 4134 e-mail: [email protected] http://www.tspmi.vu.lt LITHUANIAN POLITICAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION Vokieèiø str. 10 LT-01130 Vilnius LITHUANIA Tel. (370-5) 251 4133 !ax. (370-5) 251 4134 http://www.lpasoc.lt Sponsored by MINISTRY O OREIGN A AIRS O THE REPUBLIC O LITHUANIA J.Tumo-Vaiþganto str. 2 LT-01511 Vilnius LITHUANIA e-mail: [email protected] http://www.urm.lt BANK SNORAS A.Vivulskio str. 7 LT-03221 Vilnius LITHUANIA e-mail: [email protected] http://www.snoras.lt 3 LITHUANIAN POLITICAL SCIENCE YEARBOOK2003 Editor ALGIMANTAS JANKAUSKAS VILNIUS 2004 4 ISSN 1392-9321 © Institute of International Relations and Political Science Vilnius University, 2004 CONTENTS PRE!ACE . 7 PRESIDENTIAL CRISIS IN LITHUANIA Raimundas Lopata, Audrius Matonis. Several Causes of the Presidential Crisis in Lithuania . 11 Vladimiras Lauèius. Presidential Crisis in Lithuania: The Two Majorities and the Advent of Machiavellianism . 24 POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY AND THEORY Alvydas Jokubaitis. Aesthetic Elements of Politics . 39 Zenonas Norkus. The Problem of Causal Inference in the Comparative Politics and Comparative Qualitative Analysis . 50 PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS Algis Krupavièius and Giedrius Þvaliauskas. The Role of Political Parties in the Elite Recruitment and Consolidation in New Democracies . 79 Irmina Matonytë, Aurelija Novelskaitë. Women and Men Parliamentarians: Positions and Dispositions . 114 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND EURO-ATLANTIC INTEGRATION PROCESS Ramûnas Vilpiðauskas. The Political Economy of Transatlantic Relations: the Implications of EU Enlargement . 141 Klaudijus Maniokas. Lithuanias European Policy and its Co-ordination . 161 Asta Maskaliûnaitë. European Terrorist Groups in the New Millennium: Case of ETA . 188 Mindaugas Puidokas. The Changes in the Russian Impact on Global Arms Trade after the End of the Cold War . 203 ABOUT THE AUTHORS . 239 5 PREACE We are happy to present the fifth volume of the Lithuanian Political Science Yearbook. The Lithuanian Political Science Yearbook aims to present, first of all, to foreign readers the achievements of the Lithuanian political science as well as to reflect the tendencies of the development in the domestic and foreign policy of Lithuania. The present volume of the Yearbook follows the previously employed structure and principles. The main topic of this volume is the Presidential Crisis in Lithuania. The Presidential Crisis in 2003 2004 was a unique political phenomenon in the European political orbit. It was a challenge both for the political institutions and for the society. The authors of the Yearbook pursue to answer the questions of what were the main causes and lessons of this crisis; what impact the Presidential Crisis had for the democratic process in the country: was it strengthened or weakened by and after the Impeachment. We hope that this exceptional political experiment will be of interest for the reader. In addition, the reader of this years Yearbook is invited to ponder over considerations on aesthetic elements in politics and the assessment of the comparative qualitative analysis perspective in the comparative politics. The Yearbook continues its analysis of the Lithuanian political parties. This time, the topics revolve around the role of parties in recruiting process of the elite and a rather understudied subject such as women participation in politics. As usual, the part on International relations and the Euroatlantic integration is rich in its diversity of topics and academic insights. Here, the contributors to the Yearbook analyze the impact of the EU enlargement on the Transatlantic relations, possible scenarios of the Lithuanian European policy. In this issue, the urgent themes of terrorism and Russias role in global arms trade are once again revisited. The editor of the Yearbook expresses his sincere gratitude to sponsors, whose financial support enabled this issue to reach the reader. 7 PRESIDENTIAL CRISIS IN LITHUANIA SEVERAL CAUSES O THE PRESIDENTIAL CRISIS IN LITHUANIA * Raimundas Lopata, Audrius Matonis The impeachment proceedings against President Rolandas Paksas have been widely discussed by political analysts and political scientists in Lithuania and abroad. All of them have been primarily interested in the underlying causes of this crisis. Below are insights identifying the causes of this crisis. We can once again emphasise the trends which were obvious even without a special knowledge of politics. In fact, no artistic-scientific speculation is necessary to see that, in terms of duration, the crisis lasted longer than any other previous jolts in internal politics. Moreover, it broke out in an institution which, by its nature and experience of more than a decade, should have been the most stable pillar of the political system. We seemingly need no textbooks to know that the stability of the parliament and the government depends on the composition of the Seimas, which may be very fragmented and even fluctuating: due to changes in their interests (which often causes anger, but only an idiot has no interests and, therefore, is always happy) politicians often switch from one fraction to another and, therefore, there are no guarantees that the governing powers will survive the entire term of office of the parliament. However, even governmental crises wear down rather quickly as the parties which can form a government tend to consolidate their power as soon as possible. The Seimas procedure for a vote of no confidence in the government is rather simple and quick. Before the autumn of 2003, few could have expected that a crisis would strike the institution of the President. We already know that the semi- presidential system in Lithuania, as in some other post-communist states, was chosen because of its potential to mitigate the risks of concentration of power. Now, after the institution of the President triggered a political crisis, we have changed our tune. In other words, we never thought that when everything was smooth as silk, it was high time to stop and think: maybe things are running a bit too smoothly. But we did not. * Extract from the book Prezidento suktukas (Presidents Spin). Vilnius: Versus Aureus, 2004. P. 239255. Translation from Lithuanian. 11 12 Raimundas Lopata, Audrius Matonis A directly elected president, it seems, should not be worrying about his five-year term of office. We, at the same time, are not worrying as well since he, contrary to the government, is free from the seesaw political interests of parties. Moreover, it seemed that the Constitution of the Republic of Lithuania only provided for theoretical possibilities for the president to leave office prematurely. In late 2003, these theoretical possibilities materialised. The Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania, having assessed the evidence collected, started impeachment proceedings against the president. To be fair, we need to acknowledge that Lithuania has not been enjoying a high degree of political stability simply because of too many changes of governments. Thirteen years of independence saw twelve different governments, i.e. a government, on the average, lasted just one year. Only the last government of Algirdas Brazauskas, which came into office in 2001, could be regarded as relatively stable if it manages to stay in power until the Seimas election in 2004 (which is highly likely). In this case it can be crowned as the most stable government constituted after the restoration of independence. The term political stability is usually used in reference to two spheres: (a) efficiency of adopting and enforcing political decisions, and (b) trust in state institutions and the climate they create for business and other social activities. The first sphere marks the ability of state institutions to operate smoothly within the framework of democratic processes including the transfer of power to other political forces due to limited terms of office and changes in preferences of the electorate (reflected in the results of elections). The survival of the democratic regime often relies on the willingness of politicians and institutions to respect the established rules of the game, honour the choice made by the public and readiness to yield ground to their political opponents. This is why the first decades of young democracies are the test of democracy and the process of transfer of power receives as much attention as the election process itself. Usually, political stability is understood as the ability of any regime to stay in power for a long time without resorting to radical or frequent changes in the political system. However, in addition to the duration of staying in power (as the factor of stability), it is necessary to bear in mind the criterion of efficiency of government. The efficiency of government, in its broadest sense, means that the authorities must be able to adopt decisions, whatever happens, according to changes, circumstances and needs. In other words, the purpose of government is to govern; otherwise, it is inefficient and redundant. Therefore, the assessment of the stability of one or another political system usually relies on two criteria which characterise stability: the frequency of government changes and the smoothness of the political decision-making process. Several Causes of the Presidential Crisis in Lithuania 13 The decision-making

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