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A Technical Assessment of Emissions and Fuel Consumption Reduction A Technical Assessment of Emissions and Fuel Consumption Reduction Potential from Two and Three Wheelers in India Prepared for the International Council on Clean Tranportation (ICCT) by Narayan V. Iyer August, 2012 A Technical Assessment of Emissions and Fuel Consumption Reduction Potential from Two and Three Wheelers in India Prepared for the International Council on Clean Transportation by Narayan V. Iyer Consultant Disclaimer: This document does not necessarily represent the views of the ICCT, or of the organizations or government agencies with which ICCT participants are affiliated. Primary research for this report was conducted during the second half of 2011. While it is believed that the information presented here continues to reflect current conditions, changes may have occurred since 2011 that are not incorporated into this document. Any and all errors are the sole responsibility of the author. Acknowledgement: The author would like to sincerely thank Fanta Kamakaté, Anup Bandivadekar and Francisco Posada for their thoughtful comments. Thanks to Mr K.K.Gandhi, Technical Director of SIAM and Mr M.N.Muralikrishna, Adviser Technical of TVS Motors, both for providing the views of the vehicle manufacturers regarding future plans for emission control and fuel efficiency improvement. Also, thanks to Mr T.M.Balaraman of Hero Moto Corp for providing insights into the UNECE and EEC activities related to two and three-wheelers. Citation: Iyer N.V., (2012). A Technical Assessment of Emissions and Fuel Consumption Reduction Potential from Two and Three Wheelers in India. Prepared for: the International Council on Clean Transportation. Washington, DC. A Technical Assessment of Emission and Fuel Consumption Reduction Potential from Two and Three Wheelers in India TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 8 2. THE INDIAN TWO AND THREE-WHEELER MARKET .......................................................... 9 2.1 MARKET PROFILE OF TWO-WHEELERS ................................................................................... 9 2.1.1 DOMESTIC AND EXPORT MARKET SIZE ................................................................................ 9 2.1.2 TYPES OF TWO-WHEELERS .............................................................................................. 10 2.1.3 BRIEF HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE AND MARKET SHARES OF DIFFERENT CATEGORIES ......... 12 2.1.4 TECHNICAL CLASSIFICATION OF TWO-WHEELERS .............................................................. 15 2.1.5 MAJOR MANUFACTURERS OF TWO-WHEELERS ................................................................. 17 2.1.6 MANUFACTURERSʼ MARKET SHARES OF DIFFERENT CLASSES OF TWO-WHEELERS ............ 17 2.1.7 OVERALL MARKET SHARES OF MANUFACTURERS .............................................................. 19 2.1.8 PRINCIPAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TWO-WHEELERS ........................................................... 19 2.1.9 PRICES OF TWO-WHEELERS ............................................................................................. 20 2.1.10 PREDICTIONS ON FUTURE GROWTH OF 2-WHEELER MARKET ............................................ 20 2.2 MARKET PROFILE OF THREE-WHEELERS .............................................................................. 22 2.2.1 DOMESTIC AND EXPORT MARKET SIZE .............................................................................. 22 2.2.2 TYPES OF THREE-WHEELERS ........................................................................................... 24 2.2.2.1 PASSENGER CARRIERS .................................................................................................. 24 2.2.2.2 GOODS CARRIERS ......................................................................................................... 25 2.2.3 BRIEF HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVES .................................................................................... 25 2.2.4 CLASSIFICATION OF THREE-WHEELERS AS PER USAGE ...................................................... 26 2.2.5 MARKET SHARES OF DIFFERENT CATEGORIES OF THREE-WHEELERS ................................ 26 2.2.6 MAJOR MANUFACTURERS OF THREE-WHEELERS .............................................................. 27 2.2.7 MANUFACTURERSʼ MARKET SHARES OF DIFFERENT CATEGORIES OF THREE-WHEELERS ... 27 2.2.8 FUELS USED IN THREE-WHEELERS ................................................................................... 30 2.2.9 TECHNICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF POWER UNITS USED ON THREE-WHEELERS .................. 31 2.2.10 RANGES OF PRICES OF 3-WHEELERS .............................................................................. 33 3. INDIAN EMISSION STANDARDS FOR TWO AND THREE-WHEELERS AND TECHNOLOGIES – PROGRESSION, CURRENT AND FUTURE ............................................. 34 3.1 PROGRESSION OF INDIAN EMISSION STANDARDS AND TECHNOLOGIES ADOPTED ................... 34 3.2 CURRENT INDIAN EMISSION STANDARDS AND TECHNOLOGIES ADOPTED ............................... 34 3.2.1 SUBSTITUTE TWO-STROKE ENGINE WITH FOUR-STROKE ENGINES ....................................... 36 3.2.2 REDUCING ENGINE-OUT EMISSIONS – TWO AND THREE-WHEELERS .................................. 37 3.2.3 SOLUTIONS FOR 2-STROKE ENGINES ................................................................................ 37 3.2.4 LEAN AIR-FUEL MIXTURES FOR 4-STROKE ENGINES ............................................................ 38 3.2.5 NOVEL PATENTED SOLUTIONS FOR FOUR-STROKE ENGINES ............................................. 38 3.2.6 DESIGN AND OPTIMIZATION OF ENGINE PERFORMANCE ..................................................... 39 3.2.7 OXIDATION TYPE CATALYTIC CONVERTERS ....................................................................... 40 3.2.8 SECONDARY AIR INJECTION .............................................................................................. 40 3.2.9 TECHNOLOGIES FOR THREE-WHEELERS USING COMPRESSION IGNITION ENGINES ............. 40 3.3 FURTHER PROGRESSION OF INDIAN EMISSION STANDARDS .................................................. 41 3.3.1 INFLUENCE OF UNECE GLOBAL TECHNICAL REGULATION ON PROGRESSION OF EMISSION STANDARDS .............................................................................................................................. 41 3.3.1.1 WORLD HARMONIZED MOTORCYCLE TEST CYCLE (WMTC) ............................................ 41 [3] A Technical Assessment of Emission and Fuel Consumption Reduction Potential from Two and Three Wheelers in India 3.3.1.2 NEW CLASSIFICATION OF TWO-WHEELERS AS PER GTR 2 .............................................. 42 3.3.1.3 NEW DRIVING CYCLES AND WEIGHTING FACTORS FOR TWO-WHEELERS AS PER GTR 2 .. 43 3.3.1.4 EMISSION LIMIT VALUES IN GTR 2 ................................................................................. 43 3.3.1.5 TRANSPOSING THE GTR2 LIMITS AND TEST PROCEDURES INTO INDIAN REGULATIONS ..... 46 3.3.1.6 DRAFT INDIAN REGULATIONS REGARDING GTR2 ............................................................ 46 3.3.1.7 GTR2 DOES NOT COVER DURABILITY REQUIREMENTS ................................................... 47 3.3.1.8 EXPECTATIONS OF GTR2 FOR PROGRESSION OF EMISSION STANDARDS ........................ 47 3.3.2 CURRENT INDIAN SITUATION REGARDING PROGRESSION OF EMISSION STANDARDS ........... 48 3.3.3 VIEWS OF VEHICLE MANUFACTURERS ON EMISSION STANDARDS PROGRESSION ................ 48 3.3.4. APPROACH TO ARRIVE AT FUTURE EMISSION STANDARDS PROPOSALS ............................. 49 3.3.5 PROBABLE SCENARIOS REGARDING PROGRESSION OF EMISSION STANDARDS. .................. 49 3.3.5.1 SCENARIO 3: DEVELOPMENT OF EMISSION STANDARDS PROPOSALS AS PER GTR2 AND ON THE LINES OF EU PROPOSALS ................................................................................................... 50 3.3.5.2 PROPOSED POLLUTANT EMISSION LIMIT VALUES FOR TWO-WHEELERS (SCENARIO 3) ..... 52 3.3.6 PROGRESSION OF EMISSION LIMIT VALUES FOR THREE-WHEELERS AND TWO-WHEELERS POWERED BY COMPRESSION IGNITION ENGINES ........................................................................ 53 4. POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS TO MEET THE EMISSION STANDARDS IN VARIOUS SCENARIOS ............................................................................................................................... 55 4.1 SCENARIO 1: POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS TO MEET DRAFT NOTIFICATION MANDATED FROM YEAR 2015 ........................................................................................................................................ 55 4.2 SCENARIO 2: POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS TO MEET TIGHTENED LIMIT VALUES WITH WMTC ........... 56 4.3 SCENARIO 3: POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS TO MEET THE PROPOSED NEW EMISSION STANDARDS ... 56 4.3.1 ESTABLISHING COMPLIANCE LEVEL OF PRESENT TWO-WHEELERS TO PROPOSED BS IV AND BS V LIMIT VALUES ................................................................................................................... 57 4.3.2 MEETING THE PROPOSED 2015 (BS IV) EMISSION STANDARDS – THREE-WHEELERS ......... 58 5. AN ASSESSMENT OF VARIOUS TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS TO REDUCE EMISSIONS TO THE PROPOSED 2020 (BS V) LEVELS .................................................................................... 59 5.1 REVIEW OF KNOWN TECHNOLOGIES .................................................................................... 59 5.1.1 TWO-STROKE ENGINE POWERED 2 AND 3-WHEELERS ....................................................... 59 5.1.2 FOUR-STROKE ENGINE POWERED 2 AND 3-WHEELERS:
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