Overview 1 Probability Spaces
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Measure-Theoretic Probability I
Measure-Theoretic Probability I Steven P.Lalley Winter 2017 1 1 Measure Theory 1.1 Why Measure Theory? There are two different views – not necessarily exclusive – on what “probability” means: the subjectivist view and the frequentist view. To the subjectivist, probability is a system of laws that should govern a rational person’s behavior in situations where a bet must be placed (not necessarily just in a casino, but in situations where a decision must be made about how to proceed when only imperfect information about the outcome of the decision is available, for instance, should I allow Dr. Scissorhands to replace my arthritic knee by a plastic joint?). To the frequentist, the laws of probability describe the long- run relative frequencies of different events in “experiments” that can be repeated under roughly identical conditions, for instance, rolling a pair of dice. For the frequentist inter- pretation, it is imperative that probability spaces be large enough to allow a description of an experiment, like dice-rolling, that is repeated infinitely many times, and that the mathematical laws should permit easy handling of limits, so that one can make sense of things like “the probability that the long-run fraction of dice rolls where the two dice sum to 7 is 1/6”. But even for the subjectivist, the laws of probability should allow for description of situations where there might be a continuum of possible outcomes, or pos- sible actions to be taken. Once one is reconciled to the need for such flexibility, it soon becomes apparent that measure theory (the theory of countably additive, as opposed to merely finitely additive measures) is the only way to go. -
Lectures on Fractal Geometry and Dynamics
Lectures on fractal geometry and dynamics Michael Hochman∗ March 25, 2012 Contents 1 Introduction 2 2 Preliminaries 3 3 Dimension 3 3.1 A family of examples: Middle-α Cantor sets . 3 3.2 Minkowski dimension . 4 3.3 Hausdorff dimension . 9 4 Using measures to compute dimension 13 4.1 The mass distribution principle . 13 4.2 Billingsley's lemma . 15 4.3 Frostman's lemma . 18 4.4 Product sets . 22 5 Iterated function systems 24 5.1 The Hausdorff metric . 24 5.2 Iterated function systems . 26 5.3 Self-similar sets . 31 5.4 Self-affine sets . 36 6 Geometry of measures 39 6.1 The Besicovitch covering theorem . 39 6.2 Density and differentiation theorems . 45 6.3 Dimension of a measure at a point . 48 6.4 Upper and lower dimension of measures . 50 ∗Send comments to [email protected] 1 6.5 Hausdorff measures and their densities . 52 1 Introduction Fractal geometry and its sibling, geometric measure theory, are branches of analysis which study the structure of \irregular" sets and measures in metric spaces, primarily d R . The distinction between regular and irregular sets is not a precise one but informally, k regular sets might be understood as smooth sub-manifolds of R , or perhaps Lipschitz graphs, or countable unions of the above; whereas irregular sets include just about 1 everything else, from the middle- 3 Cantor set (still highly structured) to arbitrary d Cantor sets (irregular, but topologically the same) to truly arbitrary subsets of R . d For concreteness, let us compare smooth sub-manifolds and Cantor subsets of R . -
Set Theory, Including the Axiom of Choice) Plus the Negation of CH
ANNALS OF ~,IATltEMATICAL LOGIC - Volume 2, No. 2 (1970) pp. 143--178 INTERNAL COHEN EXTENSIONS D.A.MARTIN and R.M.SOLOVAY ;Tte RockeJ~'ller University and University (.~t CatiJbrnia. Berkeley Received 2 l)ecemt)er 1969 Introduction Cohen [ !, 2] has shown that tile continuum hypothesis (CH) cannot be proved in Zermelo-Fraenkel set theory. Levy and Solovay [9] have subsequently shown that CH cannot be proved even if one assumes the existence of a measurable cardinal. Their argument in tact shows that no large cardinal axiom of the kind present;y being considered by set theorists can yield a proof of CH (or of its negation, of course). Indeed, many set theorists - including the authors - suspect that C1t is false. But if we reject CH we admit Gurselves to be in a state of ignorance about a great many questions which CH resolves. While CH is a power- full assertion, its negation is in many ways quite weak. Sierpinski [ 1 5 ] deduces propcsitions there called C l - C82 from CH. We know of none of these propositions which is decided by the negation of CH and only one of them (C78) which is decided if one assumes in addition that a measurable cardinal exists. Among the many simple questions easily decided by CH and which cannot be decided in ZF (Zerme!o-Fraenkel set theory, including the axiom of choice) plus the negation of CH are tile following: Is every set of real numbers of cardinality less than tha't of the continuum of Lebesgue measure zero'? Is 2 ~0 < 2 ~ 1 ? Is there a non-trivial measure defined on all sets of real numbers? CIhis third question could be decided in ZF + not CH only in the unlikely event t Tile second author received support from a Sloan Foundation fellowship and tile National Science Foundation Grant (GP-8746). -
A Convenient Category for Higher-Order Probability Theory
A Convenient Category for Higher-Order Probability Theory Chris Heunen Ohad Kammar Sam Staton Hongseok Yang University of Edinburgh, UK University of Oxford, UK University of Oxford, UK University of Oxford, UK Abstract—Higher-order probabilistic programming languages 1 (defquery Bayesian-linear-regression allow programmers to write sophisticated models in machine 2 let let sample normal learning and statistics in a succinct and structured way, but step ( [f ( [s ( ( 0.0 3.0)) 3 sample normal outside the standard measure-theoretic formalization of proba- b ( ( 0.0 3.0))] 4 fn + * bility theory. Programs may use both higher-order functions and ( [x] ( ( s x) b)))] continuous distributions, or even define a probability distribution 5 (observe (normal (f 1.0) 0.5) 2.5) on functions. But standard probability theory does not handle 6 (observe (normal (f 2.0) 0.5) 3.8) higher-order functions well: the category of measurable spaces 7 (observe (normal (f 3.0) 0.5) 4.5) is not cartesian closed. 8 (observe (normal (f 4.0) 0.5) 6.2) Here we introduce quasi-Borel spaces. We show that these 9 (observe (normal (f 5.0) 0.5) 8.0) spaces: form a new formalization of probability theory replacing 10 (predict :f f))) measurable spaces; form a cartesian closed category and so support higher-order functions; form a well-pointed category and so support good proof principles for equational reasoning; and support continuous probability distributions. We demonstrate the use of quasi-Borel spaces for higher-order functions and proba- bility by: showing that a well-known construction of probability theory involving random functions gains a cleaner expression; and generalizing de Finetti’s theorem, that is a crucial theorem in probability theory, to quasi-Borel spaces. -
Jointly Measurable and Progressively Measurable Stochastic Processes
Jointly measurable and progressively measurable stochastic processes Jordan Bell [email protected] Department of Mathematics, University of Toronto June 18, 2015 1 Jointly measurable stochastic processes d Let E = R with Borel E , let I = R≥0, which is a topological space with the subspace topology inherited from R, and let (Ω; F ;P ) be a probability space. For a stochastic process (Xt)t2I with state space E, we say that X is jointly measurable if the map (t; !) 7! Xt(!) is measurable BI ⊗ F ! E . For ! 2 Ω, the path t 7! Xt(!) is called left-continuous if for each t 2 I, Xs(!) ! Xt(!); s " t: We prove that if the paths of a stochastic process are left-continuous then the stochastic process is jointly measurable.1 Theorem 1. If X is a stochastic process with state space E and all the paths of X are left-continuous, then X is jointly measurable. Proof. For n ≥ 1, t 2 I, and ! 2 Ω, let 1 n X Xt (!) = 1[k2−n;(k+1)2−n)(t)Xk2−n (!): k=0 n Each X is measurable BI ⊗ F ! E : for B 2 E , 1 n [ −n −n f(t; !) 2 I × Ω: Xt (!) 2 Bg = [k2 ; (k + 1)2 ) × fXk2−n 2 Bg: k=0 −n −n Let t 2 I. For each n there is a unique kn for which t 2 [kn2 ; (kn +1)2 ), and n −n −n thus Xt (!) = Xkn2 (!). Furthermore, kn2 " t, and because s 7! Xs(!) is n −n left-continuous, Xkn2 (!) ! Xt(!). -
Conditional Generalizations of Strong Laws Which Conclude the Partial Sums Converge Almost Surely1
The Annals ofProbability 1982. Vol. 10, No.3. 828-830 CONDITIONAL GENERALIZATIONS OF STRONG LAWS WHICH CONCLUDE THE PARTIAL SUMS CONVERGE ALMOST SURELY1 By T. P. HILL Georgia Institute of Technology Suppose that for every independent sequence of random variables satis fying some hypothesis condition H, it follows that the partial sums converge almost surely. Then it is shown that for every arbitrarily-dependent sequence of random variables, the partial sums converge almost surely on the event where the conditional distributions (given the past) satisfy precisely the same condition H. Thus many strong laws for independent sequences may be immediately generalized into conditional results for arbitrarily-dependent sequences. 1. Introduction. Ifevery sequence ofindependent random variables having property A has property B almost surely, does every arbitrarily-dependent sequence of random variables have property B almost surely on the set where the conditional distributions have property A? Not in general, but comparisons of the conditional Borel-Cantelli Lemmas, the condi tional three-series theorem, and many martingale results with their independent counter parts suggest that the answer is affirmative in fairly general situations. The purpose ofthis note is to prove Theorem 1, which states, in part, that if "property B" is "the partial sums converge," then the answer is always affIrmative, regardless of "property A." Thus many strong laws for independent sequences (even laws yet undiscovered) may be immediately generalized into conditional results for arbitrarily-dependent sequences. 2. Main Theorem. In this note, IY = (Y1 , Y2 , ••• ) is a sequence ofrandom variables on a probability triple (n, d, !?I'), Sn = Y 1 + Y 2 + .. -
Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes
Probability and Statistics Lecture Notes Antonio Jiménez-Martínez Chapter 1 Probability spaces In this chapter we introduce the theoretical structures that will allow us to assign proba- bilities in a wide range of probability problems. 1.1. Examples of random phenomena Science attempts to formulate general laws on the basis of observation and experiment. The simplest and most used scheme of such laws is: if a set of conditions B is satisfied =) event A occurs. Examples of such laws are the law of gravity, the law of conservation of mass, and many other instances in chemistry, physics, biology... If event A occurs inevitably whenever the set of conditions B is satisfied, we say that A is certain or sure (under the set of conditions B). If A can never occur whenever B is satisfied, we say that A is impossible (under the set of conditions B). If A may or may not occur whenever B is satisfied, then A is said to be a random phenomenon. Random phenomena is our subject matter. Unlike certain and impossible events, the presence of randomness implies that the set of conditions B do not reflect all the necessary and sufficient conditions for the event A to occur. It might seem them impossible to make any worthwhile statements about random phenomena. However, experience has shown that many random phenomena exhibit a statistical regularity that makes them subject to study. For such random phenomena it is possible to estimate the chance of occurrence of the random event. This estimate can be obtained from laws, called probabilistic or stochastic, with the form: if a set of conditions B is satisfied event A occurs m times =) repeatedly n times out of the n repetitions. -
Version of 21.8.15 Chapter 43 Topologies and Measures II The
Version of 21.8.15 Chapter 43 Topologies and measures II The first chapter of this volume was ‘general’ theory of topological measure spaces; I attempted to distinguish the most important properties a topological measure can have – inner regularity, τ-additivity – and describe their interactions at an abstract level. I now turn to rather more specialized investigations, looking for features which offer explanations of the behaviour of the most important spaces, radiating outwards from Lebesgue measure. In effect, this chapter consists of three distinguishable parts and two appendices. The first three sections are based on ideas from descriptive set theory, in particular Souslin’s operation (§431); the properties of this operation are the foundation for the theory of two classes of topological space of particular importance in measure theory, the K-analytic spaces (§432) and the analytic spaces (§433). The second part of the chapter, §§434-435, collects miscellaneous results on Borel and Baire measures, looking at the ways in which topological properties of a space determine properties of the measures it carries. In §436 I present the most important theorems on the representation of linear functionals by integrals; if you like, this is the inverse operation to the construction of integrals from measures in §122. The ideas continue into §437, where I discuss spaces of signed measures representing the duals of spaces of continuous functions, and topologies on spaces of measures. The first appendix, §438, looks at a special topic: the way in which the patterns in §§434-435 are affected if we assume that our spaces are not unreasonably complex in a rather special sense defined in terms of measures on discrete spaces. -
Lecture Notes
MEASURE THEORY AND STOCHASTIC PROCESSES Lecture Notes José Melo, Susana Cruz Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores March 2011 Contents 1 Probability Space3 1 Sample space Ω .....................................4 2 σ-eld F .........................................4 3 Probability Measure P .................................6 3.1 Measure µ ....................................6 3.2 Probability Measure P .............................7 4 Learning Objectives..................................7 5 Appendix........................................8 2 Chapter 1 Probability Space Let's consider the experience of throwing a dart on a circular target with radius r (assuming the dart always hits the target), divided in 4 dierent areas as illustrated in Figure 1.1. 4 3 2 1 Figure 1.1: Circular Target The circles that bound the regions 1, 2, 3, and 4, have radius of, respectively, r , r , 3r , and . 4 2 4 r Therefore, the probability that a dart lands in each region is: 1 , 3 , 5 , P (1) = 16 P (2) = 16 P (3) = 16 7 . P (4) = 16 For this kind of problems, the theory of discrete probability spaces suces. However, when it comes to problems involving either an innitely repeated operation or an innitely ne op- eration, this mathematical framework does not apply. This motivates the introduction of a measure-theoretic probability approach to correctly describe those cases. We dene the proba- bility space (Ω; F;P ), where Ω is the sample space, F is the event space, and P is the probability 3 measure. Each of them will be described in the following subsections. 1 Sample space Ω The sample space Ω is the set of all the possible results or outcomes ! of an experiment or observation. -
The Probability Set-Up.Pdf
CHAPTER 2 The probability set-up 2.1. Basic theory of probability We will have a sample space, denoted by S (sometimes Ω) that consists of all possible outcomes. For example, if we roll two dice, the sample space would be all possible pairs made up of the numbers one through six. An event is a subset of S. Another example is to toss a coin 2 times, and let S = fHH;HT;TH;TT g; or to let S be the possible orders in which 5 horses nish in a horse race; or S the possible prices of some stock at closing time today; or S = [0; 1); the age at which someone dies; or S the points in a circle, the possible places a dart can hit. We should also keep in mind that the same setting can be described using dierent sample set. For example, in two solutions in Example 1.30 we used two dierent sample sets. 2.1.1. Sets. We start by describing elementary operations on sets. By a set we mean a collection of distinct objects called elements of the set, and we consider a set as an object in its own right. Set operations Suppose S is a set. We say that A ⊂ S, that is, A is a subset of S if every element in A is contained in S; A [ B is the union of sets A ⊂ S and B ⊂ S and denotes the points of S that are in A or B or both; A \ B is the intersection of sets A ⊂ S and B ⊂ S and is the set of points that are in both A and B; ; denotes the empty set; Ac is the complement of A, that is, the points in S that are not in A. -
Borel Structure in Groups and Their Dualso
BOREL STRUCTURE IN GROUPS AND THEIR DUALSO GEORGE W. MACKEY Introduction. In the past decade or so much work has been done toward extending the classical theory of finite dimensional representations of com- pact groups to a theory of (not necessarily finite dimensional) unitary repre- sentations of locally compact groups. Among the obstacles interfering with various aspects of this program is the lack of a suitable natural topology in the "dual object"; that is in the set of equivalence classes of irreducible representations. One can introduce natural topologies but none of them seem to have reasonable properties except in extremely special cases. When the group is abelian for example the dual object itself is a locally compact abelian group. This paper is based on the observation that for certain purposes one can dispense with a topology in the dual object in favor of a "weaker struc- ture" and that there is a wide class of groups for which this weaker structure has very regular properties. If .S is any topological space one defines a Borel (or Baire) subset of 5 to be a member of the smallest family of subsets of 5 which includes the open sets and is closed with respect to the formation of complements and countable unions. The structure defined in 5 by its Borel sets we may call the Borel structure of 5. It is weaker than the topological structure in the sense that any one-to-one transformation of S onto 5 which preserves the topological structure also preserves the Borel structure whereas the converse is usually false. -
Shape Analysis, Lebesgue Integration and Absolute Continuity Connections
NISTIR 8217 Shape Analysis, Lebesgue Integration and Absolute Continuity Connections Javier Bernal This publication is available free of charge from: https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.IR.8217 NISTIR 8217 Shape Analysis, Lebesgue Integration and Absolute Continuity Connections Javier Bernal Applied and Computational Mathematics Division Information Technology Laboratory This publication is available free of charge from: https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.IR.8217 July 2018 INCLUDES UPDATES AS OF 07-18-2018; SEE APPENDIX U.S. Department of Commerce Wilbur L. Ross, Jr., Secretary National Institute of Standards and Technology Walter Copan, NIST Director and Undersecretary of Commerce for Standards and Technology ______________________________________________________________________________________________________ This Shape Analysis, Lebesgue Integration and publication Absolute Continuity Connections Javier Bernal is National Institute of Standards and Technology, available Gaithersburg, MD 20899, USA free of Abstract charge As shape analysis of the form presented in Srivastava and Klassen’s textbook “Functional and Shape Data Analysis” is intricately related to Lebesgue integration and absolute continuity, it is advantageous from: to have a good grasp of the latter two notions. Accordingly, in these notes we review basic concepts and results about Lebesgue integration https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.IR.8217 and absolute continuity. In particular, we review fundamental results connecting them to each other and to the kind of shape analysis, or more generally, functional data analysis presented in the aforeme- tioned textbook, in the process shedding light on important aspects of all three notions. Many well-known results, especially most results about Lebesgue integration and some results about absolute conti- nuity, are presented without proofs.