Flood Outlook FLOOD OUTLOOK ▼ Saturday, May 25, 2019 at 12:15

Lake Ontario Shoreline Hazard Warning Critical high water levels and waves are imminent and/or occurring, which could result in shoreline flooding and/or erosion.

Issued to: SCHOOL BOARDS, MUNICIPALITIES, LOCAL CONSERVATION AUTHORITY, LOCAL POLICE, EMERGENCY SERVICES AND MEDIA

Weather Conditions: and Region Conservation Authority (TRCA) advises that Environment Canada is forecasting a weather system that may bring rainfall amounts of up to 25 mm to the Greater Toronto Area in addition to the approximate 10 mm that has already fallen this morning. The rain is expected to begin early this afternoon and will continue until later this evening. The rain is expected to be widespread across our watersheds, with a risk of isolated thunderstorms that may bring additional short-duration, high-intensity rainfall amounts of up to 15 mm to 20 mm in localized areas this afternoon and evening. The International – St. Lawrence River Board is forecasting that Lake Ontario, which is still gradually rising, is expected to peak within the next 1-2 weeks as outflows from the lake are increased and inflows from Lake Erie stabilize. As of May 24th, the current Lake Ontario average water level is 75.85 m (IGLD 1985 Datum) at Fisheries and Oceans Canada’s tidal observation station at Toronto. For reference, this water level is 8cm below the maximum observed daily water level during the entire Lake Ontario event in 2017 (75.93m). Once peaked, water levels in Lake Ontario will then take several weeks to recede back down to normal levels. Even as water levels recede, risks continue during times of heavy wind or wave activity. Issues: Actions: All rivers and streams within the GTA should Please exercise caution around all bodies of water. Please alert be considered hazardous as this rainfall will any children under your care of these dangers and supervise result in higher flows and water levels. their activities. Please keep children and pets away from the Ponding may occur in low-lying areas. The slippery and unstable banks. Persons should stay well away from combination of slippery and unstable banks watercourses. TRCA will continue to monitor the weather and could create hazardous conditions close to any watershed conditions and provide an update should the river, stream or other water body. All watershed conditions become more severe. Please exercise shorelines, rivers and streams within the GTA caution around all Lake Ontario shoreline areas and avoid areas should be considered hazardous. Impacts to that are flooded or are experiencing erosion. Boardwalks and shoreline areas, such as shortened beaches, other trails along Lake Ontario can be dangerous during times of erosion, trail/boardwalk closures, localized high waves. Please obey all trail closure notices. Please alert any ponding and flooding, have been observed at, children under your care of these dangers and supervise their but not limited to, the following locations; activities. This Flood Outlook Watershed Conditions Statement Budapest Park/Sunnyside Beach, Marilyn Bell will be in effect through Sunday May 26, 2019 and continuation Park, HTO Park, , Sugar of Lake Ontario Shoreline Hazard Warning will be in effect until Beach, , , updated or cancelled. This shoreline message pertains to Lake Ashbridge’s Bay Park, Kew and Balmy Ontario water levels in the TRCA jurisdiction only. Please contact Beaches, Bluffer’s Park, Scarborough Bluffs, your local municipality 311 line for updated information on park along the Doris McCarthy Trail and Guildwood and beach operations status. To report a flooding incident from a Park shoreline, Port Union near Highland Creek watercourse or shoreline, please leave a message on TRCA's mouth, Rouge Beach Park, Frenchman’s Bay floodline listed below. If you are in danger, call 911 immediately. shoreline areas, Rotary Park (Ajax) and Notice of Caution for Scarborough Bluffs : Paradise Park Beach. TRCA has issued a notice https://trca.ca/conservation/green-infrastructure/scarborough-wat of caution specifically for the Scarborough erfront-project/ More information from the International Lake Bluffs due to the potential for landslides. Other Ontario – St Lawrence River board can be found here: waterfront properties, including Toronto https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/lake-ontario-outflows-increasing-again-aft Islands, which experienced flooding and er-ottawa-river-peaks-second-time and erosion during the 2017 event could continue https://ijc.org/en/loslrb/watershed/forecasts Flood conditions to experience impacts. Additionally, wave elsewhere in the province can be found through the MNRF action from high winds could exacerbate Surface Water Monitoring Centre’s website here: erosion and flooding impacts. https://www.ontario.ca/law-and-safety/flood-forecasting-and-warn ing-program

Flood Duty Officer Chief Flood Duty Officer Matthew Kuyntjes Alison MacLennan 416-661-6514

Previous Flood Messages issued for the same storm event: 1. TRCA – Continuation of Lake Ontario Shoreline Hazard Warning for May 24, 2019 until updated or cancelled. 2. TRCA – Lake Ontario Shoreline Hazard Warning continued for May 16, 2019 until updated or cancelled 3. TRCA – Lake Ontario Shoreline Hazard Warning continued May 7, 2019 until updated or cancelled 4. TRCA – Lake Ontario Shoreline Hazard Warning in effect April 30, 2019 until updated or cancelled

Receive Flood Notifications via Twitter: www.trca.ca/flood twitter.com/trca_flood A Flood Outlook Watershed Conditions Statement is an early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.

A Lake Ontario Shoreline Hazard Warning is a notice that critical high water level and waves are imminent and/or occurring, which could result in shoreline flooding and/or erosion. Exercise caution around all Lake Ontario Shoreline areas.