Análisis De Confiabilidad Y Costos Del Puente Tampico

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Análisis De Confiabilidad Y Costos Del Puente Tampico INSTITUTO POLITÉCNICO NACIONAL ESCUELA SUPERIOR DE INGENIERÍA Y ARQUITECTURA SECCIÓN DE ESTUDIOS DE POSGRADO E INVESTIGACIÓN MAESTRÍA EN ESTRUCTURAS ANÁLISIS DE CONFIABILIDAD Y COSTOS DEL PUENTE TAMPICO TESIS QUE PARA OBTENER EL GRADO DE MAESTRO EN CIENCIAS EN ESTRUCTURAS PRESENTA LORENA ELIZABETH MANJARREZ GARDUÑO DIRECTOR INTERNO: DR. HÉCTOR A. SÁNCHEZ SÁNCHEZ DIRECTOR EXTERNO: DR. DAVID DE LEÓN ESCOBEDO MÉXICO, D.F., FEBRERO DE 2009 RESUMEN En el presente trabajo se analiza un puente carretero localizado en Tampico, en la costa este de México, con objeto de determinar su nivel de seguridad con el riesgo asociado a su falla debido a cargas de viento. Las variabilidades inherentes a las fuerzas aleatorias de viento y a las propiedades mecánicas de los materiales constituyen las incertidumbres aleatorias, y esto contribuye a la probabilidad de falla de la estructura. La idealización de las cargas y la estructura del puente, así como el análisis de la respuesta estructural ante las cargas de viento contribuyen a que exista una incertidumbre adicional de tipo epistémico, que deriva en que la confiabilidad del puente (o su probabilidad de falla) asuma características aleatorias. El criterio de falla considerado es flexocompresión en una dirección de la pila principal crítica, con el cual se supone que falla el puente en su totalidad. Se realizan análisis de tipo lineal (sin deterioro) para seis diferentes velocidades de viento, las cuales se consideran estáticas. Estos análisis se repiten 4 veces más haciendo variar el espesor original de las pilas principales, aumentándolo en 10 y 20% y disminuyéndolo en las mismas cantidades, con el fin de obtener las relaciones entre los elementos mecánicos actuantes y la velocidad de viento. Posteriormente se lleva a cabo una simulación de dichas velocidades y se evalúa el criterio de falla para obtener el índice de confiabilidad de la estructura. El diseño con el mínimo del costo esperado en el ciclo de vida se asocia con el diseño óptimo. Para este diseño óptimo, es posible seleccionar un percentil (o la media más una desviación estándar) de la probabilidad de falla o índice de confiabilidad correspondiente, lo cual constituye una decisión conservadora para administradores con aversión al riesgo. El criterio propuesto constituye una nueva aproximación para tomar decisiones conservadoras e involucrar a la incertidumbre epistémica en el proceso de diseño y evaluación de puentes. ABSTRACT In this work, a highway bridge located in Tampico, on the east coast of Mexico, is analyzed to determine its safety level with risk associated due to wind loading. The inherent variabilities of the random wind force and of the mechanical properties of materials constitute the aleatory uncertainty; this contributes to the probability of failure of the structure. The idealization of the loading and of the bridge structure, and the analysis of the structural response to wind loading, contribute to additional uncertainty of the epistemic type, which leads to bridge reliability (or failure probability) assumes aleatory characteristics. Failure criteria is supposed to be flexo-compression in a direction of the critical principal pile, which generates the whole failure of the bridge. Linear analysis are done (without deterioration) for six different wind speeds supposed statics. These analysis are repeated four more times varying original thickness of principal piles, increasing it in 10 and 20% and decreasing it in the same quantities for obtaining relationships between acting loading and wind speed. Later, a simulation is made with those wind speeds and failure criteria is evaluated for calculating the reliability index of the structure. The design with the minimum expected life-cycle cost is the optimal design. For this optimal design, a percentile value (or the mean plus one standard deviation value) of the corresponding failure probability of safety index may be selected for a risk-aversive design. The proposed criteria constitute a new approach to make conservative decisions and involve the epistemic uncertainty on the bridge design and assessment process. A mis padres Por su amor infinito, su apoyo incondicional y por enseñarme que aunque la vida está llena de circunstancias difíciles, éstas no deben ser un obstáculo para lograr el éxito. A mi hermano Por su cariño, por los buenos momentos que hemos compartido desde niños y por su ayuda siempre que la he necesitado. A mi abuela Guadalupe A quien le hubiera gustado ver la culminación de esta etapa de mi vida. Agradezco infinitamente A mis maestros, por haberme impartido y compartido sus conocimientos tanto en el aula como fuera de ella. A mis asesores, por su invaluable apoyo en la culminación de este trabajo y por sus oportunas y atinadas observaciones. A Mario, por su cariño, paciencia, tolerancia y respaldo incondicional. A mis amigos, por los momentos que hemos compartido y lo que me han enseñado. A Rafa, por la entrañable amistad que sostuvimos y por los ideales que nos unieron. Al Cap. Manuel Aceituno Rodríguez de la Capitanía de Puerto Tampico, al Ing. Eduardo Sánchez López de CAPUFE y a la Lic. Ana Laura Camarillo Torre de la API de Tampico, quienes durante la visita que realicé a Tampico amablemente me proporcionaron información necesaria para el desarrollo de este trabajo. A la Secretaría de Comunicaciones y Transportes, por haberme proporcionado las facilidades necesarias para la obtención de datos geométricos y constructivos del puente. A todas aquellas personas que hicieron posible la realización de este trabajo. ANÁLISIS DE CONFIABILIDAD Y COSTOS DEL PUENTE TAMPICO CONTENIDO GENERAL Página Capítulo I. Antecedentes 1 I.1 Introducción 2 I.2 Estado del arte 4 I.3 Objetivos 5 I.4 Metas 5 I.5 Justificación 5 I.6 Descripción del trabajo 7 I.7 Marco teórico 8 Capítulo II. Modelado y análisis estructural 12 II.1 Características geométricas 13 II.2 Cargas 16 II.2.1 Carga muerta 16 II.2.2 Carga viva 16 II.2.3 Carga accidental: viento 18 II.3 Análisis estructural 19 Capítulo III. Análisis de confiabilidad y riesgo 25 III.1 Consideraciones generales 26 III.2 Análisis de confiabilidad contra viento y cargas de gravedad 26 III.3 Análisis de riesgo incluyendo costos de consecuencias de falla 29 Conclusiones y recomendaciones 34 Referencias 36 Apéndice A 38 Anexo I. Cargas de viento 40 Anexo II. Resultados del análisis en SAP2000 y elementos mecánicos 46 resistentes Anexo III. Cálculo del índice de confiabilidad 56 Anexo IV. Catálogo de conceptos considerados para obtener el costo de 62 reparación Anexo V. Cálculo de las pérdidas económicas por interrupción del 64 servicio CONTENIDO DE FIGURAS Página Figura I.1. Vista del Puente Tampico desde una de las márgenes del Río 2 Pánuco. Figura I.2. Arreglo de tirantes en el Puente Tampico 3 Figura I.3. Vista frontal de una de las pilas principales del Puente Tampico 3 desde la calzada. Figura I.4. Agrietamientos observados en una de las pilas del Puente (en 6 el interior de la calzada), en visita realizada en agosto de 2007. Figura II.1. Planta y elevación del Puente Tampico 15 Figura II.2. Camiones HS estándar 17 Figura II.3. Geometría del puente en el programa de cómputo SAP 2000 22 Figura II.4. Geometría del claro central del puente en el programa de 22 cómputo SAP2000. Figura II.5. Diagrama de fuerza axial del diseño original para el escenario 23 de carga D+V+W230 Figura II.6. Diagrama de momento flexionante del diseño original para el 23 escenario de carga D+V+W230 Figura II.7. Diagrama de interacción de la pila principal crítica. 24 Figura III.1. Gráfica Velocidad de viento – Fuerza axial en una de las pilas 27 principales. Figura III.2. Gráfica Velocidad de viento – Momento flexionante en una de 27 las pilas principales. Figura III.3. Gráfica de la distribución lognormal del índice de confiabilidad. 29 Figura III.4. Gráfica del índice de confiabilidad aceptable para diferentes 32 valores de Cd /Ci. Figura III.5 Gráfica que muestra la ubicación del índice de confiabilidad 32 aceptable. Figura A.1. Diagrama de Venn con eventos A y E1, E2 , ..., En 39 Figura AII.1. Alzado de la pila principal donde se muestran los elementos 48 definidos en el programa SAP2000 que integran las pilas principales. Figura AII.2. Vista longitudinal del puente donde se muestran los 48 elementos definidos en el programa SAP2000 para los diversos miembros. Figura AII.3. Diagrama de fuerza axial para el escenario de carga 49 D+V+W230, con el espesor de la pila principal disminuido a 45 cm. Figura AII.4. Diagrama de momento flexionante para el escenario de carga 49 D+V+W230, con el espesor de la pila principal disminuido a 45 cm. Figura AII.5. Distribución perimetral del acero de refuerzo considerada 53 para obtener el diagrama de interacción de la pila principal crítica. Figura AII.6. Diagrama de interacción de la pila principal crítica donde se 55 muestran los puntos calculados para su construcción. CONTENIDO DE TABLAS Página Tabla II.1 Factores de reducción de carga viva según el número de carriles 17 ocupados simultáneamente (AASHTO, 2002). Tabla II.2. Escenarios de carga considerados para el análisis estructural. 20 Tabla II.3. Elementos mecánicos máximos obtenidos en la pila principal 21 crítica para cada escenario de carga, considerando un espesor de pared de 50 centímetros. Tabla III.1 Parte de la tabla de cálculo del índice de confiabilidad. 28 Tabla III.2 Costo de reparación del Puente en función del espesor de la 30 pila principal. Tabla III.3 Resumen del costo total de daño considerando cada uno de los 31 costos componentes y dependiendo del espesor de las pilas principales. Tabla III.4 Índice de confiabilidad aceptable para diferentes valores de Cd 31 /Ci.
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