Presentation Notes

Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 12/7/2019 1 LLC Copyright PMH Around The Bend A Series of Assessments About the Future

Complexity PMH Enterprises LLC New Security Asynchronous and Asymmetric Risks Conditions and Circumstances

Radical Azimuths Branches and Sequels

Tangents Unclear Direction

Non-linearity Exceptional Dynamism

Generating Ideas And Describing Conditions About The Evolving Future DOI: 09/12/2019

The original version of this presentation was delivered on 10 January 2000

Copyright © Intellectual Property 12/7/2019 2 of PMH Enterprises LLC With apologies to Niels Bohr, Danish Physicist (1885 – 1962), and numerous others to which this idea is attributed: “Forecasting is risky business, especially about the future.” Copyright © Intellectual Property 12/7/2019 3 of PMH Enterprises LLC • It is very challenging (and complicated) to discern the truth from common information sources – including the government. • The 13th Report Rule is in effect – ‘The first 12 reports are always wrong and the 13th should be taken with great skepticism.’ • Stuff happens – things change. We cannot know the truth today by examining

yesterday’s facts. Prime Example: Attribution

Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 12/7/2019 4 LLC Copyright PMH This presentation includes the Domestic / Internal condition of the United States as well as International / Transnational conditions and circumstances in its context.

Highlighting and underlining are used to provide emphasis… This presentation will also appeal to your… Pathos Ethos Logos

Copyright © Intellectual Property 12/7/2019 5 of PMH Enterprises LLC • Non-Linear • Random • Asynchronous • Asymmetric • Dynamic COMPLEXITY and CONVERGENCE The impact of a random event when • Rapid placed in a larger context by rapid information transfer and differences in • Impactful perception – cannot be predicted.

It depends.

Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 12/7/2019 6 LLC Copyright PMH The biggest future national and personal problem is Complexity…and Attendant Uncertainty There is too much to know and understand.

The second biggest problem…dynamic change is constant.

Another big problem is that there are few – if any – simple or direct solutions, especially when unintended consequences and ancillary effects are factored in.

None of this is completely new or unheard of…but it may be that we are now faced with a cumulative (and synergistic) effect that we have not experienced or understood before.

That does not mean there are no answers… "The answer, my friend, is blowing' in the wind" Bob Dylan

Copyright © Intellectual Property 12/7/2019 7 of PMH Enterprises LLC • The United States (and our Allies) and our enemies – and indeed the entire world – are beset by threats, challenges and the complexities of the modern age. This condition will intensify.

• It is vital that governance at all levels and notably our defense, intelligence, and police & security organizations and capabilities are supported and sustained at a level commensurate to meet these threats and challenges and to deter, moderate, and [if necessary] respond to the consequences of untoward acts and unacceptable conditions.

• At some level…prudent risk compels us to develop and sustain adequate capability.

…is now so prevalent, voluminous, rapidly-changing, and complicated -- that it cannot be adequately (or successfully…), dealt with by [humans engaging in cognition alone]. Instead, humans require the assistance of various aids and support to grasp the meaning of data and to act on what it presents to us. Complexity is the wave of the future…

Copyright © Intellectual Property 12/7/2019 9 of PMH Enterprises LLC As we see the future evolving, we must assume that there is a chance, a risk, a possibility, that an existential condition may arise which threatens our way of life and indeed our very existence [as we expect it to be]. The Millenium Bug Barack Obama is Elected The Attack on 9-11 Donald Trump is Elected The War in Iraq The War in Afghanistan Global Economy Surges Apple Becomes Worth $1Trillion The Rise of Facebook Terrorism Becomes Frequent Apple Launches I-Phone Mass Events Occur On A Large Scale Syrian Civil War Begins Environmental Changes Occur Same Sex Marriage Venezuela Falls Apart

Think about the surprises so far in this Century…

• SEVERAL EVOLVING CONDITIONS ARE NOW CONVERGING.

• SOME NEW CONDITIONS ARE EMERGING – ESPECIALLY NEW GEOPOLITICAL REALITIES AND NEW TECHNOLOGIES.

• TOGETHER THESE EVENTS ARE FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGING OUR CONDITION AND THE CIRCUM- STANCES WE ARE FACED WITH.

Change is perhaps the only constant…

Copyright © Intellectual Property 12/7/2019 11 of PMH Enterprises LLC The Past CONVERGENCE Espionage Societal Militant Change Discord Nuclear in Iraq & Syria Belligerent Proliferation Iran Global Resource Environmental Afghanistan CMCE Change Shortfalls Biological Latin Relationships Change American Malaise Wild Real World Cards Changing Converging Domestic Border Markets Concerns Concerns Africa’s Metamorphosis Gangs & Interconnections Groups Organized The War Crime Against Middle Eastern Central North Terror Russian – Israeli Asia Korea Adventurism Conflict Turmoil China’s March Future Conditions

Copyright © Intellectual Property 12/7/2019 12 of PMH Enterprises LLC EMERGENCE The Past Surging Societal Technology Discord Global Resource Environmental Afghanistan WMCE Change Shortfalls Biological Cyber Relationships Change Threat Wild Real World Cards Changing Emerging Domestic Border Markets Concerns Concerns Africa’s Metamorphosis Gangs & Interconnections Groups The War Organized Against Crime Middle Eastern Central Terror North Russian – Israeli Asia Korea Adventurism Conflict Turmoil China’s March Future Conditions

• Industrial Revolution (continuing -- #5 is on the way) • Immigration Waves (US-centric) • World War I • Post-War Sorting of the Community of Nations • World War 2 • Post-War Period – “BOOM” Times • Korean War – Net Effect was Uncertainty • Vietnam War – National Questions • Technological Revolution • Evolution of Communism • Terrorism, Extremism and Globalism • Small Wars and Difficult Conditions which persist!

Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 12/7/2019 14 LLC Copyright PMH 9-11-2001 was a tipping point for change…

Copyright © Intellectual Property 12/7/2019 15 of PMH Enterprises LLC • Small Wars of the end of the 20th Century and the beginning of the 21st Century have arrived at a variety of unclear culminating points and have fostered uncertain change.

• Technology has affected everything. Techno-change in techno-time is axiomatic.

• Globalized Nation-State and Individual economic circumstances are beginning to drive contemporary change which may be different in intensity and effect from similar past change.

• Key resources are growing in strategic importance. No resource can be ignored.

• Global environmental change has compelled resource commitment and compelled necessary societal change, while various opinion groups debate the truth of the condition.

• Societal changes with cultural implications abound, including fundamental cultural change.

• Geo-political outcomes are emerging as drivers and shapers for the future of regions.

• Bottom Line: Dynamic change remains the pivotal condition – that will continue.

2020 – 2030 and beyond…

Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 12/7/2019 16 LLC Copyright PMH Cultural Change

Technology Change

Geopolitical Change Economic Change

Security Change

Societal Change

Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 12/7/2019 17 LLC Copyright PMH • Instability – in settled and unsettled cultures and nations (including North America) – will be the biggest challenge to basic freedoms and security. In many cases instability will be a function of perception rather than absolute fact.

• The Rise of Transnational Crime and Criminal Enterprise – driven by economic and cultural change and by societal conditions.

• Violent “Political” Action – may seem to be such a threat to stability that it is met with greater force and harsher response from governance, and thus may result in deepening antagonisms. Misperception will play a role.

• Techno-Weapons – especially the use of weapons with mass and complex effects (WMCE), including cyber weapons and new science weapons – will exacerbate any unstable conditions.

• Environmental Change – with devastating effects – may also present “large-War-like conditions.”

The contemporary and future Global (and National) condition can be characterized as a woven and interconnected – interrelated fabric. Inter- dependencies and traditional (historical) associations hold us all together. The thread of the “rule of law” ties the fabric together at its ends.

Traditional balance and resulting stability are primary factors in the preservation of the Global (and National) fabric, which will tear and unravel in cases where governing and guiding law is not honestly applied, and where protectionism and isolationism and similar restraints and prohibitions are applied.

The fabric itself is alive with change and dynamism, but its woven and interconnected-interrelated nature has to be preserved and nurtured in order to achieve its greatest elasticity and strength.

Caring for this fabric is the challenge we all face…and will be our greatest task in the years ahead.

Differentiation The Very Advanced Technology (between haves/have nots) RICH STEW OF MOD Environmental Change Globalization NOW

Resource Cognitive Competition Dissonance

Cyber Life X- Factors

Youth Bulge

Culture Change Techno Speed & Techno Time How Many People Have Been Killed in War Since 1900?

“Somewhere between 135 and 150 million”

Source: Wikipedia / http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/t hread732008/pg1 (although there are wide differences in some estimates)

Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 12/7/2019 21 LLC Copyright PMH Wikipedia

World population estimates from 1800 to 2100, based on "high", "medium" and "low" United Nations projections in 2015 and UN historical estimates for pre-1950 data.

Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 12/7/2019 22 LLC Copyright PMH UN estimates (as of 2017) for world population by continent in 2000 and in 2050 (pie chart size to scale).[1] Wikipedia Asia Africa Europe Latin America North America Oceania

Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 12/7/2019 23 LLC Copyright PMH 1900 – 1950 World View

1950 – 2000 World View

From A Certain Perspective…

2000-2020 World View

Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 12/7/2019 24 LLC Copyright PMH 12/7/2019 Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 25 LLC Copyright PMH The Internet 2019 The Blogosphere

The World Wide Web Concept

Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 12/7/2019 26 LLC Copyright PMH Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 12/7/2019 27 LLC Copyright PMH Type Public [3] Revenue US$ 55.838 billion (2018) [3] Operating income US$ 24.913 billion (2018) [3] Net income US$ 22.111 billion (2018) [4] Total assets US$ 97.334 billion (2018) [4] Total equity US$ 84.127 billion (2018) [5] Employees 30,275 (June 30, 2018) Subsidiaries •Instagram The Book of Faces •WhatsApp •Oculus Website •facebook.com •fb.com [6] [7] Written in C++, PHP (as HHVM), D Registration Required Users 2.3 billion monthly active users (December 2018) Available in Multilingual (140)

Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 12/7/2019 Current status Active 28 LLC Copyright PMH Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 12/7/2019 29 LLC Copyright PMH Personal and Societal Complexity

HEALTH HOME WORK FAMILY FAITH FORTUNE MIND IDEAS

CHANGE BELIEF

Fulfill- Friends LOGIC Emotion mint

Events Politics Why?

X-Factors HOPES

Government FAILURE World ATTITUDE View

Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 12/7/2019 30 LLC Copyright PMH We, of course, live in a simple environment without conundrums and contrasts…

Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 12/7/2019 31 LLC Copyright PMH Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 12/7/2019 32 LLC Copyright PMH Changing Times • Applied Synthetic Intelligence • Tactile Sentient Beings • Global Ubiquitous Network of Things and Information • Revolutionary Rapid Transit (Planes / Trains / Autos / Other Means of Conveyance) • BioFuels from Waste • Diagnostic Clothing with Urgent Response Capabilities • New Sound and Ultrasound Tools • Smart Medical Devices • Robotic Applications of All Kinds • Very Advanced Materials Sciences and Product Applications • Environmental Controls • Variant Relationship and Cultural Mechanisms

Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 12/7/2019 33 LLC Copyright PMH Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 12/7/2019 34 LLC Copyright PMH Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 12/7/2019 35 LLC Copyright PMH Issues • Do we have an adequate coping apparatus for the future? No. However, there are some constructive steps to take. • Do we have a realistic view of future, including threat possibilities and probabilities? Probably not. • Could the future include large-scale conflict – and if so, what are our options now? Yes. Options now? Too hard! • What “threats other than War” exist – and what should we do to prepare for them? WMCE! Environmental Change? Societal Upheaval? • What is our biggest vulnerability? Denial. • What do we do about all of this? First step is recognition of the problem(s) followed by the development of “strategic” vectors to mitigate them & achieve our goals …or is this “old think?” WMCE – Weapons with Mass & Complex Effects

Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 12/7/2019 36 LLC Copyright PMH Where are we going?

Off the proverbial cliff? Onward toward greater social progress? Both?

Likely global vectors:

Interconnections and Globalization continue to develop Greater resource challenges Increased environmental concerns Continuing economic disparity between haves and have-nots WhereLess are“conventional” we going? warfare – more limited warfare & crime More intrusive government control Societal change – positive progress on many fronts Techno-revolution proceeds unabated Second “globalization” movement appears Political expression becomes more dangerous Youth have less opportunity – friction results Disease and other natural phenomena take a greater toll Simmering social and cultural issues occasionally boil over into violence

Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 12/7/2019 37 LLC Copyright PMH • Inspired leadership from a States(man) or (woman)…and assistance from every quarter… • Intellect that is up to the challenge… • Firm direction for success… • Opportunity that will be taken… • Critical decision making… • Vital resources… • Luck…

Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 12/7/2019 38 LLC Copyright PMH Merry Christmas 2019 Intellectual Property of PMH Enterprises 12/7/2019 40 LLC Copyright PMH