For immediate release Friday, December 9, 2016 4 pages Contact: Krista Jenkins 973.443.8390; [email protected]

LOOKING BEYOND CHRISTIE: SIX CANDIDATES WITH LITTLE FAMILIARITY TO VOTERS

Fairleigh Dickinson University, December 9, 2016 – Six major party candidates have declared their intention to run in ’s 2017 gubernatorial election. Despite some having spent years in the public eye and already campaigning, the most recent statewide survey from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind finds Garden State voters have little familiarity with the current candidates, and little appetite or hope for either party’s leadership.

On the Democratic side, three men have announced their candidacies: Former U.S. Ambassador to Germany , Assemblyman John Wisniewski, and former U.S. Department of Treasury official and federal prosecutor Jim Johnson. Despite Murphy’s early announcement that he intends to run and aggressively campaign, he is known to only 39 percent of registered voters. Almost a fifth (18%) have a favorable opinion with 9 percent who are unfavorable. Wisniewski is known to about a third of the electorate (31%), despite serving as a state assemblyman since 1996 and co- chairing the legislative committee investigating Bridgegate. Ten percent have formed a favorable opinion of him with the same number who say they have an unfavorable opinion of the legislator. Johnson is familiar to only a quarter (24%) of respondents.

“As attention turns from the presidential election to events back home, these candidates will experience greater scrutiny. Murphy and Wisniewski have an edge over Johnson because of their public service experience. However, as reflected in public opinion, the Democratic field remains wide open,” said Krista Jenkins, professor of political science and director of PublicMind.

On the Republican side, two-term Lieutenant Governor has a lead over her opponents in name recognition but despite occupying one of the state’s only two statewide elected positions, she is known to only forty percent of voters, with equal numbers finding aspects of her that are both favorable (15%) and unfavorable (16%).

Her two rivals, Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli and Ocean County resident Joseph Rullo, are known to fewer than twenty percent.

“Time will tell if Lieutenant Governor Guadagno will emerge from Governor Christie’s shadow. Her close connection to the governor may hurt, given his historically low approval ratings. Their recent public disagreement over the gas tax amendment on November’s ballot is an example of how she might raise her profile and distinguish her independence from the governor. Right now, however, the majority of registered voters don’t know who she is, even though she’s second in line to the governor,” said Jenkins.

Finally, in October we asked voters which party they think can do the most in solving the state’s myriad of problems. Half (50%) believe neither party has the right answers, with about the same number divided between placing their faith in the Democratic party (28%) as opposed to the Republican party (20%).

“Candidates from both of the state’s major political parties will have to work hard to define themselves to voters. But these numbers suggest they’ll also have to distinguish their leadership as something that offers simply more than partisan solutions,” said Jenkins.

Methodology, questions, and tables on the web at: http://publicmind.fdu.edu

Radio actualities at 201.692.2846 For more information, please call 201.692.7032

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Methodology - The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone November 30- December 4, 2016 among a random sample of 836 registered voters in New Jersey. Results have a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.4 percentage points, including the design effect.

Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, sex, race, and education. 444 interviews were conducted on landlines and 392 were conducted on cellular telephones.

The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

PublicMind recently received an “A” rating from statistician Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog. The ratings measure both accuracy and bias for all major polling services in the , providing an update to similar research the poll watchers conducted in 2014. PublicMind’s “A” rating puts it in the top 14 of the more than 380 polling institutes reviewed and graded from A+ through F PublicMind was found to have a 94 percent accuracy rate for predicting election results, and is one of only two A-rated polling institutes with zero bias to their rankings.

Tables

I’m going to read you some names. Can you tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable [rotate] opinion of each person, or if you’ve never heard of them? [Rotate names] Haven’t heard of Favorable Unfavorable Unsure 61% 18% 9% 12% Phil Dem Ind Repub Dem Ind Repub Dem Ind Repub Dem Ind Repub Murphy 59 69 68 21 14 8 8 7 13 12 11 11 69% 10% 9% 12% John Dem Ind Repub Dem Ind Repub Dem Ind Repub Dem Ind Repub Wisniewski 66 78 68 14 6 6 8 3 13 11 13 13 76% 6% 9% 9% Jim Dem Ind Repub Dem Ind Repub Dem Ind Repub Dem Ind Repub Johnson 78 74 75 * * * * * * * * * 60% 15% 16% 9% Kim Dem Ind Repub Dem Ind Repub Dem Ind Repub Dem Ind Repub Guadagno 61 66 56 10 13 23 21 13 12 7 9 10 83% 5% 5% 8% Jack Dem Ind Repub Dem Ind Repub Dem Ind Repub Dem Ind Repub Ciattarelli 84 84 82 * * * * * * * * * 84% 4% 5% 8% Joseph Dem Ind Repub Dem Ind Repub Dem Ind Repub Dem Ind Repub Rullo 84 85 84 * * * * * * * * *

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Which of the two major political parties do you trust the most to fix what’s wrong with New Jersey, or do you trust neither? October 2016 PID Gender Race Education Age Non- HS/Some All Dem Ind Repub Male Female White College+ 18-34 35-59 60+ white college Republicans 20% 1 9 49 22 18 26 9 24 18 18 18 24 Democrats 28% 59 3 4 24 31 24 36 26 29 25 26 32 Neither 50% 38 86 46 52 48 48 53 49 49 55 53 41 DK (vol) 2% 2 2 2 1 3 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 Refused 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (vol)

Question wording and order

US1 and US2 withheld NJ1 through NJ4 released December 6, 2017 ELEC1 through ELEC7 withheld

ID I’m going to read you some names. Can you tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable [rotate] opinion of each person, or if you’re never heard of them? [Rotate names] ID1 withheld

ID2 Phil Murphy ID3 Kim Guadagno [Gwa-dah-no] ID4 Jack Ciattarelli [Sit-are-elli] ID5 John Wisniewski [Wiss-NEW-ski] ID6 Jim Johnson ID7 Joseph Rullo

1 Favorable 2 Unfavorable 3 Never heard of 8 DK (vol) 9 Refused (vol)

Murphy: Trend Haven’t heard Favorable Unfavorable Unsure 12/16 61% 18% 9% 12% 10/16 58% 16% 9% 16% 5/16 74% 8% 7% 12% 11/15 89% 3% 3% 5% 4/15 88% 4% 2% 6%

Guadagno: Trend Haven’t heard Favorable Unfavorable Unsure 12/16 60% 15% 16% 9% 10/16 52% 17% 18% 13% 11/15 69% 11% 10% 10% 6/14 68% 11% 10% 10% 8/13 75% 9% 4% 12% 8/12 76% 9% 5% 10%

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Cittarelli: Trend Haven’t heard Favorable Unfavorable Unsure 12/16 83% 5% 5% 8% 10/16 76% 5% 6% 13%

Wisniewski: Trend Haven’t heard Favorable Unfavorable Unsure 12/16 69% 10% 9% 12% 1/12 80% 6% 3% 11%

Sample characteristics (weighted) Gender Male 49% Female 51% Age 18-34 25% 35-59 42% 60+ 32% Refused 1% Race White 65% African American 13% Hispanic 13% Asian 5% Other/Refused 4% Party (with leaners) Dem 47% Ind/DK/Refused 20% Repub 33%

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