NIGER DELTA CONFLICT BULLETINS AUGUST 2015 THE FUND FOR PEACE The Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit research and educational organization that works to prevent violent conflict and promote sustainable security. We promote sustainable security through research, training and education, engagement of civil society, building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing innovative technologies and tools for policy makers. A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning field, The Fund for Peace focuses on the problems of weak and failing states. Our objective is to create practical tools and approaches for conflict mitigation that are useful to decision-makers. Copyright © 2015 The Fund for Peace. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from The Fund for Peace. Report Written by Assessment, Content, and Design Supported by Nate Haken, Patricia Taft, Hannah Blyth, Kendall Lawrence J. J. Messner, Logan Cuthbert, Sarah Silverman Circulation: PUBLIC The Fund for Peace T: +1 202 223 7940 1101 14th Street NW, Suite 1020 F: +1 202 223 7947 Washington, D.C. 20005 www.fundforpeace.org Partner Organizations One of the data sources utilized in the summary was derived from the UNLocK network in The data used in this analysis was pulled from the integrated digital platform for Nigeria, a partnership between The Fund for Peace and the Institute of Human Rights multistakeholder engagement developed by P4P, an initiative supported by Partnership and Humanitarian Law (IHRHL). Initiatives for the Niger Delta (PIND). For a deeper understanding of the conflict risk factors, visit www.p4p-nigerdelta.org. Disclaimer The content of this report represents a summary of the incidents reported in the data, not the opinions of the organizations that collaborated on the compilation of this information. THE FUND FOR PEACE Niger Delta Conflict Bulletins: August 2015 C o n t e n t s These Conflict Bulletin provide brief The screenshots of the heat maps for each The summaries draw on data collected by snapshots of the trends and patterns of state show the relative distribution of ACLED, FFP’s UNLocK, the Council on conflict risk factors at the State and LGA incidents from one LGA to the next from Foreign Relations’ NST, WANEP Nigeria, CSS/ levels, drawing on the data available on the January 2012 to June 2015. The trendline ETH Zurich, NEEWS2015, and Nigeria Watch P4P Digital Platform for Multi-Stakeholder charts show the number of incidents and integrated on the P4P platform. They also Engagement. It represents a compilation of fatalities over time. The bar charts show the draw on data and information from the data from the sources listed below, not relative trend of incidents of insecurity by “Violence in Nigeria: Patterns and Trends,” necessarily the opinions of The Fund for LGA per capita. by Patricia Taft and Nate Haken (Springer Peace or any other organization that Press, April 2015). collaborated on the production of this bulletin. Reported Violence† State Conflict Bulletins for the Nine Niger Delta States Fatalities per Capita (Jan 2012-June 2015) Ondo Edo PAGE PAGE 37 29 Worse Imo Abia Cross River PAGE PAGE Delta 33 9 PAGE 21 PAGE 25 Better Akwa Ibom Bayelsa Delta Edo Bayelsa River Cross Rivers Imo Ondo AkwaIbom Abia PAGE 12 Rivers PAGE 16 PAGE † Using Nigeria Watch data (www.nigeriawatch.org) formatted 40 to the P4P Web Map platform (www.p4p-nigerdelta.org) * Charts in this report use Nigeria Watch data (www.nigeriawatch.org) formatted to PLUS: Special Feature on the P4P Web Map platform (www.p4p- PAGE 5 Conflict Prevention in Rivers nigerdelta.org) www.fundf o r p ea c e . o r g 3 THE FUND FOR PEACE FEATURE NIGER DELTA CONFLICT BRIEFING THE FUND FOR PEACE Conflict Prevention in Rivers Following Election Violence Briefing — August 2015 Background with reported conflict incidents including the deaths of party loyalists from both sides, the bombing of party secretariats, According to the Independent National and the kidnapping and intimidation of Electoral Commission (INEC), and political opponents. As illustrated in the corroborated by data from the P4P Peace graph below, drawing from Peace Map data, Map, Rivers State experienced the country’s the State experienced a major spike in both highest levels of violence during the 2015 political conflict-related incidents and gubernatorial elections, resulting in the fatalities in the first part of the year, peaking deaths of political party rivals, their hired around the time of the gubernatorial security agents and police officers. elections in April. The current political dynamics in Rivers pre- In the midst of the pre-election instability, date the April 2015 gubernatorial elections. the APC opted to boycott the elections after There has been heightened tension in the appeals to INEC to cancel the elections were state since 2013, when Govenor Rotimi The Nigerian Presidential and National unsuccessful. Polls proceeded and PDP was Chibuike Amaechi defected from the ruling Assembly elections of March 2015 were delivered a landslide victory in the State PDP to the APC after having a falling out widely praised by international observers as House Assembly, and Chief Wike was within his party. Officials across the free and fair, with relatively peaceful declared the winner of the gubernatorial governing political apparatus picked sides outcomes across most states. However, election. and a series of manoeuvrings ensued, among those states with elevated levels of including the removal and replacement of a political conflict was Rivers, where tension The APC rejected the election results and former PDP Chairman by the Federal High has cascaded with subsequent state and sought redress in the state election petition Court and the impeachment of the Speaker local elections in April and May. This tribunal, which was relocated to Abuja of the Rivers State House of Assembly by a briefing provides context to the local amidst security concerns. Led by APC group of five legislators. Other controversial government dynamics surrounding the candidate Dr. Peterside, they alleged that events that gave rise to tensions in the state administration of incumbent All the results were rigged in favour of the PDP included the deployment of a new Progressives Congress (APC) candidate and claimed the party conspired with Commissioner of Police to the state and Governor Amaechi, and the succeeding security forces and armed thugs to protests by a group of ex-militants against Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate intimidate their supporters and prevent the Governor. Governor Wike, elected in April. As a series them from voting. of judicial challenges unfold in the The 2015 state elections were hotly aftermath of the local elections, and The announcement by the outgoing APC contested between the PDP candidate Chief tensions continue between the PDP and administration that the Rivers State Ezebunwo Nyesom Wike, former Education APC parties, close monitoring of the political Independent Election Committee (RSIEC) Minister, and Dr. Dakuku Peterside of the situation is required for early warning and would stage local elections on 23 May (6 APC. conflict mitigation. days before the end of their administration) had the effect of continuing tensions, The period during the gubernatorial though violence was much reduced. The campaigns in the state was characterised by PDP sought an injunction from the Federal violent clashes between the APC and PDP High Court in Port Harcourt to prevent the www.fundf o r p ea c e . o r g 5 THE FUND FOR PEACE CONFLICT PREVENTION IN RIVERS STATE FOLLOWING ELECTION VIOLENCE Election-Related Fatalities Reported by State: April Gubernatorial Elections 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Rivers Keluai Ebonyi Osun Taraba Berue AkwaIbom Delta Lagos Imo Kaduna Kano Vasarawa Katsina Ekiti River Cross Adamawa Bauchi Plateau F.C.T. Jigawa Kwara Peace Map Data shows Rivers State as the most lethal in regards to election-related violence during the Gubernatorial Election period. This chart draws on Nigeria Watch (www.nigeriawatch.org) and ACLED (www.acleddata.com) data formatted and uploaded to the P4P Peace Map (www.p4p-nigerdelta.org). RSIEC elections from proceeding. Governor Wike moved to sack the 22 new paralysed the judiciary, stemming from a Nonetheless, the local elections were held APC chairmen and immediately inaugurated showdown between then-Governor on 23 May and boycotted by the PDP. The and swore in 23 Caretaker Committee Amaechi and the National Judicial Council outcome of the elections was a victory to Chairmen to take over temporary over the appointment of a Chief Judge (CJ) the APC, who won 22 out of the 23 administration of the Local Government for the state. In the absence of a CJ to chairmanship seats. Councils. Soon after the decision of the assign cases, a backlog developed over a court was given, the Inspector General of period of months. As tensions escalated, With the PDP’s Chief Wike inaugurated as Police (IGP) ordered his men to occupy all judicial workers went on strike, citing the Governor six days later on 29 May, the 23 LGA councils and to deny access to insecurity. Finally, in June of this year, the political manoeuvring continued. The the APC. Although this decision has been newly elected Governor Wike swore in Federal Court in Port Harcourt reached a rescinded, it was a source of much Justice Daisy Okocha as CJ, and courts decision on the legitimacy of the 23 May controversy in the state. Then on 13 July, the resumed. But to the extent that there is elections staged by the outgoing Governor National Industrial Court, which presides perception of or precedent for politicization Amaechi, ruling that the election of the 22 over civil and labour-related cases, ordered of the judiciary, this could undermine the APC chairmen be nullified.