Few Issues Are More Central to Life in the Middle East Than the Provision of Adequate Supplies of Water

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Water Resources in the Middle East: Impact on Economics and Politics

The session was convened at 9:00 a.m., April 11, 1986, Joseph W. Dellapenna* presiding.

Remarks by Joseph W. Dellapenna Few issues are more central to life in the Middle East than the provision of adequate supplies of water. Few issues have been more neglected in discussions ofthe Middle East situation than water. The longest running active hostilities in the region are ostensibly over control of a river—although one may doubt whether this is the tme cause of the Iran-Iraq war. And while little has been said about water by the recur rent combatants in the Jordan Valley, more than one observer has concluded that Israel's military and political policies are dictated by a"hydraulic imperative." Today we focus on water in its several dimensions in the life of the region, hoping thereby to open afruitful dialogue that might thereafter help to substitute cooperation over water for the recent pattern of conflict. Without pretending to be able to solve these problems, we might at least help shed light on the role law could play. Our first speaker, John Kolars, will describe the physical parameters ofthe Middle East's water problem, Le., the geology, hydrology and engineering concerns that deci sionmakers must consider. Thomas Naff will then provide an overview ofthe histori cal, economic and political parameters of the Middle East's water problems. Dr. Naff is the coeditor ofthe best published resource on today's topic: Water in the Middle East: Conflict or Cooperation? (1984). Stephen McCaffrey will provide a general in troduction to the international law pertaining to consumptive uses ofwater that has evolved largely in the last 100 years. Finally, I will return to the podium to discuss briefly the situation confronting Israel and her neighbors.

•Professor of Law, Villanova University; consultant, Middle East Research Institute, University of Pennsylvania. *flw*^*l*W1*^ '•'-/&. V^'

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i TABLE I cont.

Upper Basin State Basinc Downstream (source) into Countries River Tributary Jordan Lebanon Israel/Jordan Jordan Syria Israel Syria Jordan/Israel Orontes Lebanon Yarmuk (Asi) Syria/Turkey Orontes Turkey Syria/Turkey Quiek Turkey Aafrin Syria Quiek Coruh Turkey USSR Coruh Kura/Aras Turkey USSR Kura (common mouth Turkey to Caspian) USSR/Turkey Aras (Araxes) USSR Turkey/USSR Turkey Arpa Euphrates-Tigris Iran Turkey* Syria/Iraq Zenginar (common mouth= Turkey Euphrates (first) Shatt al-Arab) Syria Turkey Syria Colap Turkey Syria Khabur Turkey Jagh Jagh Syria/Iraq Tigris (Dicle) Turkey Iraq/Turkey Turkey Turkey/Iraq Habur Turkey Iraq Hazilsuyu Iran Iraq Greater Zab Iran Sirwan (Diyala) Iraq Alwand Iran Iraq Lesser Zab Iran Iraq numerous ephemeral streams from the foothills (Pusht-i-kuh) Naft Gangir Gwarkhash Kunjan

N.B.

Iran to the Caspian Sea Safid

TABLE I cont. Tributary Downstream River Upper Basin State into Countries (source) Gurgan Basinc to the Caspian Sea Arek Iran USSR/Caspian Sea HariRud Kashaf (Ourgan) Iran Iran/USSR Afghanistan Jam AtreV USSR Iran Hari USSR n-,.-^Sah to the Caspian Sea mTfinenatUre oTthe plain in Iraq. >"• wiucr. Safid

TAMP. 1 evwt,

H|l|l»l llH.lll NlHld Dowmlraam llH.III <" («Hl|MN| Inln CiMinirlM Rlvtr Tributary

llllllMHMl I mn In Hit" Cainlan Km Ourgan Ali.S Iran UNNR/Caaplan Sea Arek lUit Anjhanlttan Iran/USSR Hari Rud dan \mn Kashaf II an IISHR Muiilmli Afyhanliian USSR tlcllllDllil Murghab Afghanlilan Iran Helmand Amu Darya' Afghanistan USSR Amu Darya Dasht Pakistan Iran Dasht (mouth at border)

In order tolimit the geographic area considered the fhlloiina k.Z. 7 • T? ! of class,fica,'<>n will be the basin. cDry-surfaceRudolf Turkeybasinsin EuVo^e,have alsoK^^V^ggtZZ^been excluded That !«l thn£ Hr,in.». k • -^S^S^SSLlL^5 Caspian drainage~«^(see note below),*****.Ob,"*Hi, Indus.^ Chad, Congo, Lake Natron. Uke ' CyprusThe Caspianmust ha,be consider*!only been aSde^SS*TS«rJ^S^JTSf, specTcaa^h^^^^^ *"° *"**" T<*SUch MinJ"\the UA.E./Oman.*« --fg of the sea itself warrants special study. f YTalias Rivera which are found in both Turkish and Greek zones of admiration * ' Greek-°ccuP'ed Twodoa supplies the basins of the Serakhi, and I• ;mJ—-^^ '— to Israel that it .so warrants special stud, The hstmg for the Amu Darya tributaries should be considered incomplete. I

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of our concern in historic times (going ZT^5^ ^"" °CCUn,Bd *'he «"" must be measured on ageoiog.c rather tha aT~ ^ S'gn,fiCam **»&* Sahelian and Eth.op.an droughts applr ntTv r "^ tlme "^ •*«„ such as the "tons which have subSequent^ Cm e^at-S?^ ™n°rdima,it "-'«- •mproved health measures smce World C' * ^ aC,'V,t'es- Th* * throughout this part of the world, and eeonomZJlZT" ^ d°0b,fld Potions ambmons has raised living standards^ 7 "T'0^^1 **"« * "a«onaIist,c s.andards-vvtth concomitant demand?,r 'Ire 'i*"**"™ rf lml™»* '^ng ter urban environments. All of ,h„ me ns Z ^T^* mor* ^try, and be,: surplus waters of the Middle East an'^h Afrta T ""' "^^ bu< th< runs ofgood and bad years. "" are hmte commodities subject to

Management of International Rivers * states cannot J^X^S^S ^Stt""^*"»* hv *" Nation re.at.ng to the use of the waters of the F h *^ ™™*™& complex ters mTurkey. Several estimates ha be !1 ^T Th'S ™r ^ * "eadwa- v-ded by the raihfall catchment •mZ^Z^T?^^^^^^^ Syria and Iraq. Conservative estimate Z«M ~ V™ downstrea» Carers. nkeykey and when12 percental, factors^to Syria cot*erSAs will Z"arTt ! **"*"*^°f*•the**stream'***Bow^ to Tur^ four"> Iraq,thousandworks wereyearsbegunbSi,to^^'"t^frestore tht ' ^ÊuphratesdUn"g the waters.Bn^» Mandate(Two to gated only to be lost through salmat.oof 1 ^P****" h*« êen successfully irri- works, Following World War " °r waêf" ^T'0" ^^'"££ the impending competition for those waTen Th "To.f?" fcW Pe°ple ant4ated Tabqa (ath-Thawrah) Dam and reseZ ron The" '" "?? ^^ comP'««l the Turks completed the first major d^TtheEuoL? ? *" "^ ,n '9?4 the Th,s latter dam is part of avast undenal, bT he T'V ^ ^^ the Keb<- •rngatefour morefromdams750,0000on thehectaresriver to(£E£Z£*2^generate Tar,e °*-^^^tricityPr°m'SeS toandPla"to andBy theto irrigatesame lineupwardsof reasoningof 6^the SyriansCSlS^S?hoJf ^ T^^than tW'Ce thatMr0p—am«unt fill, the flow of the Euphrates into Iraq «seve"£ ^ * tW0 rese™o,rs began to ical repercussions. q aS SeVerel-v d'min.shed, with immediate polit- By Apnl 1975 Iraq called an urgent meeting of rh B League to discuss claims to Euphrates w^ In rh "^ M'n,SterS °f the '^ Iraq and Syria moved troops towards"„«> mutual ?* ^^ th3t fol,owed hoth the reconciliation that followed is unc ar meH ^"T Whlle the-^ct nature of •ndefuseddetail,thisIrecommenddangerous situation.the czcdt^^J^T^Since £s „o7m " SaUd't0 g°Arab'alnt« **aPparentlymatters manes ot anumber of other critical nvTrlt " T™ aS Wdl aS Slm"ar <»m- Thomas Naff and Ruth C. Matso n he r*boo "ât *f^ ^ P"M * or-PantteCooperation?meettng(1984).ln BaghdadSuffice it^sS^^*1^-to 1 rf° ^""'" ê 'V/tfrf/tJÊast-^ConJiict"D-4 • -• "*q is said to have derhanded 255

'he Middle East and 18,000 MCM/vr' of Euphrates- water. Syria 13.000 MCM/yr. and Turkey 14.000 MCM/yr. Thi* is atotal of 45.000 MCM/yr. or 14 times the Euphrates mean annual this problem in recent discharge of 32.000 MCM/yr. at Hit. Iraq." B occurred in the area Given such explosive possibilities, which can be found repeated everywhere Significant desiccation throughout the Middle East and North Africa where international rivers exist, it be Disasters such as the comes imperative that the general mechanics of such rivers be understood. First of minor climatic fluctu- all. there is ihe question of what unit is best for planning purposes. Individual nations n activities. That is. cannot approach the situation equitably and unilaterally. From an ecological point ot view, the river basin itself becomes the rational unit for consideration. In this case, doubled populations the headwaters or sources of the streams are viewed as indivisible portions of the irred by nationalistic whole system. What happens anyplace along the stream becomes part of the overall nof improved living responsibility of all who use it. Upstream depletions and pollutings are problems con re industry, and bet- cerning everyone. By the same token, equitable shares of water must be agreed upon more water, but the and management of headwaters cannot be the sole concern or expense of the source mrnodities subject to country. C.B. Bourne argues that extra-basin considerations must also be taken into account (transferring water outside the basin to another watershed), and that m- terbasin transfers of water make the "drainage basin approach" unfeasible. While this remains a matter for international law to resolve, the immediate manipulation and management of the basin-not some of its parts, nor an undetermined extraneous 'al planning by sin- clientele—seems a logical place to start our attempt to see how the natural system reasingly complex works and what immediate effects human manipulations have upon it. ver has its headwa- Streams in the Middle East are largely "exotic" by nature. That is, they rise in well- lountt of water pro- watered areas and before reaching the sea or some inland sink flow into an and zone wnstream sharers, where there is no more water added to them and they actually diminish in volume eam's flow to Tur- through evaporation and seepage. The basic condition of such streams is that they r to 98 percent for have seasonal periods of high water followed by periods of extremely reduced flow. - British Mandate For example, whereas the St. Lawrence River has only twice as much water at high I waters. (Two to flow as at low flow, the Nile River has more than eight times as much water in Sep successfully irri- tember as in May, the Euphrates 28 times its minimum amount, and the Tigris River ancient irrigation nearly 80 times as much. Such flows are the result of winter rains in higher areas, the >eople anticipated melting of the mountain snow pack, or, in the case of the Nile, the onslaught of the ns completed the monsoon onto the Ethiopian highlands which brings the annual flood ot the waters of ver. In 1974 the the Blue Nile to top off the base flow provided by the year-round equatorial rain-fed lory, the Keban. White Nile. 'romises to place There are at least six uses for such rivers (see Figure I). In approximate diminish lectricity and to ing order of importance these are: irrigation, domestic use. hydropower, industrial ce that amount, use, navigation and fisheries. The latter two uses are eclipsed by the first four, of ded hydropower which hydropower should be the least demanding, for use of river waters to generate «rvoirs began to power should not deplete or change them. Irrigation is the most demanding. For mmediate poln- example, Egypt uses approximately 40 cubic kilometers of water from the Nile each year. Of this, 37 km3 are supplied for irrigation, while only 3km3 suffice for all do ers of the Arab mestic and industrial use. Afurther concern where irrigation is a factor is the quality t followed both ofthe water returned to the mainstream after passing through the fields. Heavy loads exact nature of offertilizers, insecticides, herbicides, and dissolved natural salts can make the water ibia apparently unpalatable and even unusable for further irrigation. Colorado River water passed on o these matters to Mexico is an example of this. IS similar sum- Another source of water which may be independent of stream flow, but which may presented by play an important part in determining the quantity and quality of available water, is East—Conflict Jn: "During a f*e demanded •MCM = millions ot cubic meters. . 256 '•CURE , Elements of a Hypothetical Intern ational River Use System precipitation Headwaters catchement area J Kolars

hypothetical international border

natural underground flow (diminished?)

domestic/

industrial/ third nation uses 257

been in the news in recent months. The greem g er example , per. J Kolars Se Of deep aquifers. The Great Mann£j*v rmL, ^ ^^ ^^ sonallvSaud, caseconsiderthere ,sbothsometheseindicationefforts JtA«J-to *short wn^ rf geologlcallywater from aqulferslope m,n centralArab,a,s lowering the flow oUpnn ^ ^ ^ ^^ ^ ^ and Yemen. Libyan resources, while seemingly fragile.More to the point are the aquifersr wh.c.., . suppi;imnlvYthe KKhabur River in northernj^ ^Syriaw and which are for the most part loca ed orth the b ^ ^ fey mv initial statement about the amount ot wate P ^^ ^ up to Suntries along its course The conventon* - Khafeur and us sister yearns 12 percent of the flow of that river. TteMUWJo sou[h rf [he the Jagh Jagh and the Bal.kh. however, are pnngs ^ ^ (arge Turkish0us catchmentsborder. toThesethe northspringsin ^^^Turkey winch areas^^of higher^^rainfall.upQnAgainthem prior to new development plans, these springs ^^ wpump represented an inviolate Synan resource. No*^however Mv analys,s of this sltugauonquantities,s still ofunderway,water frombut^^^J^^-lbehe tta «J-« ^^ Qn U»«^ Turkisn°f le^s,de significance, because it means the water . got g Furthermore, while and used up. and those springs ^^.^Xaoon, there ,s also the question of depletion of underground waters is amajor ^ of lfers. If the quality of return flow to streambeds and to ^^ lfers 1S slgn,ficantly re- the water running off the fields or seeping; tack mo q ^^ ^ ^ ^ ouced.phenomenonthis canalongseriouslythe Euphrates,affect a^JJit w11 b«e~*Jq & are^^farthestmanagemenldownstream,1S Other factors which should be taken in* cong a ^ ^ someUmes discussed are losses from the surface of r«JJJ" extra ,/410 ,./2 km of water depicted as negligible, in years of scare^ ™««°J ^ and , have used avery thus lost on astream like the ^^ossZl The loss through evaporation and conservative estimate of «««^J?,£***» as evapotranspiration) is even plant transpiration or use (referred to n^ to more than one cubic meter of Later. Along the Synan border such losses amoun ^ ^^ of wat£f und later per square meter of *"**££*£.^ successful crop such as

sate for evaporation from local ditch surfaces. stic/ River systems: an overview trial/ nation Let us now take an overview• of«f J^J^the systems I haveofbrieflyone country.described.WaterStreammayflowbe begtns with natural P^^^^ll some possible loss through evapo- impounded for the generation °f.h^~P^arly true in mountain catchment areas, ration off reservoir surfaces. Th* is Ij~2« purposes. Water then continues where there are good dam sites J-JJ*^^^electricity and also serve. SSttrVXZdownstream to the next reservoir, wh.cuse*t^^potranspirationg ^ and^^through leakagerf 258

Irom ditches, etc. Return flows may or may not be unacceptablv polluted Farther downstream pumpage from independent aquifers irrigates additional fields and pro vides some return (low which may increase downstream quantities hut may also in crease their salinity. Losses also occur through local evapotranspiration. Return seepage from fields may restore some depletion due to pumping but may also pollute spring waters. Excessive pumping may diminish spring flow across the international border. (Lag time because of storage capacity of the aquifer as well as difficulty of observation may make cause and effect difficult to establish in this case.) In the next downriver country similar occurences are repeated, all of which can have implications for countries farther downstream. At all points along the river changes in the same amounts and quality of water may affect domestic and industrial use. These situations can and do occur in numerous permutations and combinations.

Conclusion Time does not permit me more than to mention some approaches to the above problem. There is no quick technological fix. Weather manipulation, while some times possible, is on too small a scale. Desalination of sea water works well for coastal cities but the greater volumes of water needed for agriculture, plus pumping costs to fields high above sea level, make this solution prohibitive. Groundwater in aquifiers is all too finite. Efficient irrigation techniques are a necessity and should be adopted by all users both upstream as well as downstream. Long-distance imports (not icebergs) might work if firm, long-term arrangements between nations can be managed. That is. piped waters from surplus areas might well help meet deficits elsewhere. But the silence greeting Sadat's "Nile waters to Israel" proposal indicates that such ideas have a long way togo before being taken seriously. When Sadat made his propo sal, however, he had apparently not discussed it with the Sudanese, the Ethiopians or the Ugandans. In the final analysis, the only way in which equitable and enduring use of finite river resources can occur is through negotiations at the table of international law. It is far too complicated to leave it up to the engineers.

Remarks by Thomas Naff*

For the sake of keeping within the timeframe, rather than give a grand overview of these political issues, I would like to focus on the legal framework within which possi ble legal solutions to water problems in the Middle East must be considered and then use a single case study to illustrate what I mean. Because it is essential to all of life, water is an incredibly complex matter that runs through political, economic, legal, social, symbolic and ecological disputes. In the Middle East, water is also a conflict-laden determinant of both the domestic and exter nal politics of the region's principal actors. As water shortages occur and full utiliza tion is reached, these policies tend to be conceived more and more in zero-sum terms, adding to the probability of violence. In an already overheated atmosphere of political hostility, there is insufficient water to satisfy burgeoning human, developmental and security needs. As each nation perceives its legitimate hydraulic imperatives threatened or frustrated by another factor, water-generated conflicts engulfing the en tire region could well be the inevitable outcome.

•Professor and Director. Middle East Research Institute. University ot" Pennsylvania.