Where are they now?

Some of you will be aware that I have a deep interest (some would say an “obsession”!) in the topic of junior to senior transition. In a paper I authored in 2010 I stated “The transition time (from elite junior to becoming a successful senior) ranged from one year to 11 years with a mean of 4.1 SD ±2.8 years for the men. The women had a longer transition time with a range of one to 13 years (mean 7.8 ±3.7 years). The analysis (of the data) also shows that a large majority of the junior medallists and junior finalists stayed at or near the top of their event for a further 10 to 15 years”… “There is a feeling that in some of the technical disciplines (e.g. throwing events and jumping events), that the transition time from elite junior to elite senior athlete is longer but our analysis does not support this premise, as we did not find a particular bias towards any event” (Hollings & Hume, 2010).

I thought it would be interesting to look at the progress/transition of those junior athletes who comped at the World Junior (now U20) Championships in 2010, 2012, and 2014, and see where they are at eight, six and four years later respectively. First, I give a summary and then the details of each athlete’s transition and progress.

Reference:

Hollings, S. C., & Hume, P. A. (2010). Is success at the World Junior Athletics Championships a prerequisite for success at World Senior Championships or Olympic Games? – Prospective and retrospective analyses. New Studies in Athletics, 25(2), 65-77.

Coding:

World Junior Championships Senior NZL Representation Annual Progression

*Denotes second appearance at a WJC OG/WC/WIC/CWG – Medal YEAR – BEST PERFORMANCE RED BOLD denotes medal won at WJC OG/WC/WIC - Finalist Red Italic denotes making a final at WJC OG/WC/WIC/CWG - Participation

2010 – Moncton, Canada

New Zealand sent its largest ever team of 24 athletes (11 men and 13 women) to the 13th edition of the World Junior Championships in Moncton, Canada. became just the second New Zealand athlete, and the first male to win a Gold medal at a World Junior Championships. Aaron Pulford (10000m) was the only other male athlete to make a final. Five of the 13 women made the final of their event – Rebekha Greene (1500m), Hannah Newbould (3000m), Elizabeth Lamb (), Ayla Gill (Hammer Throw), and (Discus Throw). New Zealand scored 16 points (its second highest ever after the 18 points scored by the team to Lisbon in 1994) and finished 22nd nation overall – its highest ever placing (at the time).

NZL Senior Representation Annual Name Event WJC Result Current Status (CWG, OG, WC, Progression (Best performance) WIC) 2010 – 10.68 /21.51 Still competing. 2011 – 10.77 /21.80 Has improved in 2017 WC – 5h1 – 2012 – 10.36 /21.27 both the 100m & 10.31 2013 – 10.32 /20.81 200 since 2010. 2017 WC – 6h1 – Joseph Miller 200m 4th ht4 – 21.80 2014 – 10.39 /20.81 Transitioned to 20.97 2015 – 10.55 /21.26 compete at the 2018 CWG – 6sf3– 2016 – 10.33/20.77 senior level at the 21.01 2017 – 10.18/20.37 2017 WC and 2018 2018 – 10.38/20.60 CWG Still competing – 2010 – 47.00 although ran 2011 – 46.40 slower in 2014 & 2012 – 46.83 2015 than he did in 2013 – 46.64 2010 after Alex Jordan 400m 6th sf3 – 47.65 - 2014 – 47.83 improving to run 2015 – 47.44 his best time in 2016 - nt 2011. Did not 2017 - nt compete at 400m 2018 - nt in 2016, 2017. 2010 – 47.29 Still competing 2011 – 48.52 although fastest 2012 – 49.25 400m time was in 2013 – 49.25 2010. Scott Burch 400m 6th ht6 – 48.63 - 2014 – 48.04 2015 – 47.57 2016 – 48.21 2017 – nt 2018 – 49.63 2010 – 1:50.15 Did not compete Glen Ballam 800m 7th ht3 – 1:51.96 - 2011 – 1:50.15 after 2012. Ran his 2012 – 1:52.36 best time in 2011. 2010 – 29:14.23 Running only 5 2011 – 29:52.51 seconds faster 2012 - 29:26.66 after 4 years. Now 2013 – 29:06.74 running H-M (best Aaron Pulford 10000m 5th – 29:14.23 - 2014 – 29:09.97 time 1:05:35 – 2015 - 29:33.62 2017). 2016 – 30:09.02 2017 – 29:38.98 2014 CWG - 11th - 2010 – 18.57m Progressing well 18.05m 2011 – 20.38m with the 7.26kg 2015 WC - 8th - 2012 – 20.05m shot. Illness struck 20.11m 2013 – dnc in 2018, curtailing 2016 WIC - 9th - 2014 – 20.70m any competition in st Jacko Gill 1 – 20.76m 19.93m 2015 – 20.75m 2018. 2016 OG– 9th – 2016 – 20.83m 20.50m 2017 – 21.01m 2017 WC– 9th – 20.82m 2014 CWG -2nd - 2010 – 17.57m Consistent year by 21.19m 2011 – 18.83m year improvement 2014 WIC - 3rd - 2012 – 19.33m resulting in 7 21.26m 2013 – 20.61m medals at senior Shot Put 10th qB – 17.92m 2015 WC – 4th – 2014 – 21.26m world-level 21.58m 2015 – 21.62m competitions. 2016 WIC – 1st – 2016 – 22.21m 21.78m 2017 – 22.14m 2016 OG – 3rd – 2018 – 22.67m 21.36m 2017 WC – 1st – 22.03m 2018 WIC -1st – 22.31m 2018 CWG – 1st – 21.41m 2015 WC – 7h1 – 2010 – 52.10 Year by year 49.58 2011 – 50.62 improvement 2012 – 51.48 (except in 2012) to 2013 – 50.07 be running fastest 110m Hurdles, 5th ht7 – 14.28 Michael Cochrane 2014 – 49.72 time in 2015. 400m Hurdles 6th sf2 - 52.71 2015 - 49.58 2016 – 49.86 2017 – 50.57 2018 - dnc 2010 – 48.13 Running slower in 2011 – 47.47 2015 than he did in 2012 – 46.68 2010. Frazer Wickes 4 x 400m Relay Did not compete - 2013 – 48.02 2014 – 48.37 2015 - 48.78 2010 – 48.24 Gradual 2011 – 47.44 improvement to be 2012 – 47.16 running best time 2013 – 47.56 in 2014 Tama Toki 4 x 400m Relay 3rd ht1 – 3:10.83 - 2014 – 46.77 2015 – 46.80 2016 – 47.63 2017 - dnc 2010 – 48.51 2011 – 47.78 Matthew Robinson 4 x 400m Relay Did not compete - 2012 – 47.91 2013 – dnc 2010 – 54.57 Running similar Kristie Baillie 400m 8th ht2 – 59.98 - 2011 – 54.81 times in 2014 to 2012 – 53.19 those she ran in 2013 – 54.70 2010. Best time in 2014 – 54.69 2012. 2015 - 59.45 2016 – 58.61 2017 - nt 2018 – 59.04 2013 WC – 4h2 – 2010 – 2:03.87 Improved from 2:00.60 2011 – 2:05.00 2010 (except in 2014 CWG - 5th - 2012 – 2:00.67 2011) to run best 2:01.94 2013 – 2:00.63 time in 2015. 2015 WC – 4s2 – 2014 – 2:00.59 1:59.53 2015 – 1:59.06 Angie Smidt* (Petty) 800m 5th sf 3 – 2:05.51 2016 OG – 4h1 – 2016 – 2:00.62 2:02.40 2017 – 2:00.44 2017 WC – 4h3 – 2018 – 2:00.62 2:01.76 2018 CWG – 5h1 – 2:00.62 2010 – 2:07.01 Retired? Anna Roche 800m 7th sf1 – 2:07.01 - 2011 – 2:10.01 (Vehicle accident) 2012 - dnc 2010 – 4:18.90 Ran similar (year 2011 – 4:19.78 best) times from 2012 – 4:21.99 2010 to 2014, but 2013 – 4:18.15 has run slower Rebekah Greene 1500m 11th – 4:27.75 - 2014 – 4:17.36 since 2014. 2015 - 4:27.16 2016 – 4:22.09 2017 – 4:22.55 2010 – 9:15.68 Ran slower in 2011 – 9:53.89 3000m from 2010 2012 – 9:34.97 until 2012. 5th ht2 – 4:19.71 2013 – dnc Competed in H-M Hannah Newbould 1500m, 3000m - 8th – 9:15.68 and 3000mSt in 2013. Did not compete at all from 2014. Laura Nagel 3000m 16th – 9:25.91 - 2010 – 9:25.91 Ran 5000m & 2011 – 9:25.78 10km and H-M in 2012 – 9:24.30 2017. Best 5000m 2013 – 9:25.01 & 1000m times 2014 – 9:01.35(i) were in 2013. Best 2015 – 9:09.16 3000m time in 2016 – dnc 2014 (i) 2017 – 9:22.73 2010 – 10:35.19 Improved through 2011 – 10:14.17 to 2012 – dnc in 2012 – 10:13.12 steeplechase in 3000m 2013 – dnc 2013. In 2014 ran Caroline Mellsop 8th ht1 – 10:40.08 - Steeplechase 2014 – 10:43.41 slower than she did 2015 - dnc in 2010. Did not compete in 2015 onwards. 2010 – 1.85m Apart from a 1.90m 2011 – 1.86m performance in 2012 – 1.90m 2012 she is 2010 CWG – 6th – 2013 – 1.84m jumping the same Elizabeth Lamb High Jump 9th – 1.78m 1.78m 2014 – 1.85m height in 2015 as in 2015 – 1.85m 2010, then 2016 - 1.86m improved 2017 - 1.83m marginally in 2016 2010 – 1.82m A 3cm 2011 – 1.73m improvement in 6 2012 – 1.75m seasons to 2015, 2013 – 1.73m but jumped a lower Keeley O’Hagan High Jump 12th qB – 1.74m - 2014 – 1.80m height in 2017 & 2015 – 1.85m 2018 than in 2010. 2016 – dnc 2017 - 1.80m 2018 – 1.81m 2010 – 4.00m Improved yearly 2011 – 4.05m through to 2013, 2012 – 4.06m but 2014 saw a big Kerry Charlesworth Pole Vault NH - 2013 – 4.26m step back. Now 2014 – 3.85m retired 2015 - dnc 2010 – 57.81m Retired 2011 – 61.70m Ayla Gill Hammer Throw 6th – 57.28m - 2012 – 55.20m 2013 – dnc 2010 – 52.02m 2010 was her best 2011 – 51.53m year. She 2012 – 50.53m progressively Leesa Lealaisalanoa Discus Throw 7th qB- 48.55m - 2013 – 49.86m declined. Retired 2014 – 49.89m after 2014 season. 2015 - dnc 2010 – 51.52m Yearly 2011 – 53.16m improvement up 2012 – 56.62m until 2015. Slight 2014 CWG - 4th - 2013 – 57.91m decline in 2016 & 58.67m Siositina Hakeai Discus Throw 12th - NM 2014 – 59.65m 2017, but still 2018 CWG – 4th – 2015 - 59.81m better than in 2010. 57.16m 2016 – 57.54m Her best throw was 2017 – 56.11m in 2018. 2018 – 60.54m

TRANSITIONAL ANALYSIS Note: Jacko Gill, Rebekha Greene and Siositina Hakeai have not been included in this analysis as each of them also competed two years later at the WJC in Barcelona. They have been included in the analysis of that team.

Of the four finalists (excluding Jacko Gill, Rebekha Greene and Siositina Hakeai) just one, Elizabeth Lamb went on to senior representation (Elizabeth competed at the CWG, one month after the 2010 WJC!). The three other finalists (Ayla Gill, Hannah Newbould, and Aaron Pulford did not go on to senior representation at a WC, WIC, OG or CWG. Ayla Gill did not compete after 2011, Hannah Newbould did not compete after 2012 and although Aaron Pulford is still competing his best 10000m time was achieved in 2013. Of the 15 non-finalists at the 2010 WJC, four (Tom Walsh, , Angela Smidt and Michael Cochrane) went on to senior representation with Tom Walsh winning WC, WIC, OG and CWG medals, Joseph Millar competing at WC and CWG, Angela Smidt competing at WC, OG, CWG, and Michael Cochrane competing at a WC. Of the other 11 non-finalists who did not go on to senior representation, two achieved their best performance in 2010 (the year of the WJC), two achieved their best performance in 2011, two in 2012, one in 2013, two in 2014, one in 2015 and one in 2017.

My thesis that an athlete has to be a very good (WJC medallist or finalist) junior to become a successful senior is, with this team, somewhat clouded! Just one finalist went on to New Zealand senior representation (at the CWG one month later!), whilst three WJC non-finalists went on to be senior representatives – one being Tom Walsh! (Tom has confidentially told me the reason why he did not make the final at the WJC). Had Jacko Gill, Rebekha Greene and Siositina Hakeai been included in this analysis a slightly different picture may have emerged! – but it would not be significant.

2012 – Barcelona, Spain

A team of eight men and five women competed at the 14th edition of the World Junior Championships. Jacko Gill became the first New Zealand junior athlete to win a second (Gold) medal at a World Junior Championships. None of the other men made the final of their event, whilst each of the five women made the final of their event. Both (Hammer Throw) and Siositina Hakeai (Discus Throw) finished fourth in their event, with both going on to the 2014 , where Julia Ratcliffe won a Silver medal and improving on that to win a Gold medal at the . finished in fifth place in the , whilst Rebekah Greene finished 7th in the 3000m and Merewaihi Vaka finished 10th in the Discus Throw. Portia Bing went on to represent New Zealand in the 4 x 400m Relay at the and finished 16th at the 2015 World Championships in the Heptathlon. The team to the 2012 WJC proved to be the most successful New Zealand team ever to compete at a WJC, amassing 24 points and finishing 20th team amongst the competing nations - New Zealand’s highest points total and finishing position.

NZL Senior Representation Annual Name Event WJC Result Current Status (CWG, OG, WC, Progression (Best performance) WIC) 2011 -10.67 His best year was 2012 – 10.56 in 2013 – the year 2013 – 10.42 after the WJC, and 100m 6h2 – 10.99 Kodi Harman - 2014 - 10.54 has not replicated 200m 7h8 – 21.98 2015 – 10.71 the 2013 2016 – 10.55 performance since. 2017 – 10.59 2010 – 48.78 His best year was 2011 – 46.91 in 2013 – the year 2012 – 46.42 after the WJC 2013 – 46.25 Andrew Whyte 400m 3sf2 – 46.83 - 2014 – 46.94 2015 – 47.15 2016 – 46.70 2017 – dnc 2018 – 49.59 2018 CWG – 5th – 2008 – 1:54.00 Has improved year 1:46.07 2009 – 1:54.01 on year since 2010 – 1:51.25 2008. His best year 2011 – 1:50.24 was 2018. 2012 – 1:49.57 Brad Mathas 800m 4h1 – 1:49.73 2013 – 1:49.34 2014 - 1:48.81 2015 – 1:47.39 2016 – 1:47.15 2017 – 1:46.97 2018 – 1:46.07 2010 – 4:02.02 Has improved year 2011 – 3:52.83 on year since 2010 2012 - 3:47.31 (except in 2013 2013 – 3:48.13 and 2017). His best 800m 7h6 -1:57.74 2018 WIC – 9th - Julian Oakley 2014 – 3:44.68 year was 2018. 1500m 8h1 - 3:49.43 8:18.60 2015 – 3:44.25 2016 – 3:41.88 2017 – 3:42.31 2018 – 3:39.42 2009 - 4:00.25 Has improved 2010 - 4:11.25 since 2011, with 2011 – 3:55.13 lapses in 2014 – 2012 – 3:46.71 2016, culminating 2013 – 3:45.93 in a best time in Ben Moynihan 1500m 8h2 – 3:50.59 - 2014 – 3:48.16 2018. 2015 – 3:54.53 2016 - 3:51.48 2017 – 3:45.37 2018 – 3:43.41 2010 – 55.48 Best time was 2011 – 54.27 2013 – the year 2012 – 52.71 after the WJC. Got Phil Simms 400m Hurdles 7h3 – 53.26 - 2013 – 51.74 close to this time in 2014 – 53.12 2016, but has since 2015 – 53.81 retired? 2016 – 51.85 2018 CWG - NH 2009 – 4.00m Improved year on 2010 – 4.80m year to record best 2011 – 4.95m height in 2016. 2012 – 5.00m 2013 – 5.10m Nicholas Southgate Pole vault 27q – 4.75m 2014 - 5.20m 2015 – 5.35m 2016 – 5.47m 2017 – 5.40m 2018 – 5.35m 2014 CWG - 11th - See 2010 data See 2010 data 18.05m 2015 WC - 8th - 20.11m 2016 WIC - 9th - Jacko Gill* Shot Put 1st – 22.20m 19.93m 2016 OG – 9th – 20.50m 2017 WC – 9th – 20.82m 1500m 7h1 – 4:21.99 See 2010 data See 2010 data Rebekah Greene* - 3000m 7th – 9:21.23 2014 CWG - 4th - See 2010 data See 2010 data 58.67m Siositina Hakeai* Discus Throw 4th – 56.17m 2018 CWG – 4th – 57.16m 2009 – 44.13m Best throw 2010 – 49.18m achieved in 2013 – Merewaihi Vaka Discus Throw 10th – 48.48m - 2011 – 50.03m the year after the 2012 – 50.26m WJC. The retired? 2013 – 50.68m 2014 - dnc 2014 CWG - 2nd - 2008 – 48.05m Improved yearly to 69.96m 2009 – 55.64m 2016, but has 2017 – 14thqA – 2010 – 61.32m thrown around the 64.72m 2011 – 62.28m same distance in 2018 CWG – 1st – 2012 – 67.00m 2017 and 2018. Julia Ratcliffe Hammer Throw 4th – 67.00m 69.94m 2013 – 68.80m 2014 – 70.28m 2015 – 68.53m 2016 – 70.75m 2017 – 70.35m 2018 – 69.94m 2014 CWG - 4 x 2011 – 4885p Achieved her best 400m Relay 2012 – 5653p heptathlon score in 2015 WC - 16th - 2013 – 5774p 2015. Now appears Portia Bing Heptathlon 5th – 5653pts 6057pts 2014 – 5695p to be focussing on 2015 - 6102p 400mH. 2016 - 5987p 2017 – 5752p

TRANSITIONAL ANALYSIS

Of the 13 athletes in the team, seven went on to become New Zealand senior representatives. Of the seven, three were successful (defined as medal at CWG and/or Medalist/finalist at WC, WIC, OG). There were six finalists at the Barcelona WJC, with the one medallist, Jacko Gill, transitioning to become a finalist at WC, WIC and OG. Of the other five finalists, one (Julia Ratcliffe) went on the CWG Medal, two (Portia Bing and Siositina Hakeai) went on to CWG/WC representation, whilst two (Rebekah Greene and Merewaihi Vaka) did not/have not represented New Zealand at the Senior Level. Two athletes (Brad Mathas and Nick Southgate) who were non-finalists at the 2012 WJC went on to CWG representation, whilst another not finalist (Julian Oakley) went on to WIC representation. Of the other four non-finalists at the 2012 WJC, three (Kodi Hardman, Andrew Whyte, and Phil Simms) had their best performances in 2013 – the year after the 2012 WJC. Ben Moynihan is the exception with his best performance coming in 2018 – six years after competing at the WJC.

The thesis that an athlete has to be a very good (WJC medallist or finalist) junior to become a successful senior is, in this instance, only partly true with one junior medallist (Jacko Gill) going onto WC, WIC, OG finalist, one finalist (Julia Ratcliffe) going on to CWG medals, two further finalists going onto CWG/WC representation. However, two other finalists did not/have not yet represented New Zealand at the Senior level. Conversely, of the seven non-finalists, three, (Brad Mathas, Julian Oakley, Nick Southgate) have gone on to Senior Representation.

2014 – Eugene, USA

New Zealand sent its smallest ever team to a World Junior Championships - just three athletes (two women and one man). Eliza McCartney became the 7th New Zealand athlete to win a medal at a World Junior Championship, winning a Bronze medal in the Pole Vault. She has subsequently gone on to represent New Zealand at the 2016 World Indoor Championships and won a Bronze medal at the 2016 Olympic Games. Rosa Flanagan made the final of the 3000m Steeplechase. The sole men competitor for New Zealand, Pascal Kethers did not make the final in his event - the pole vault. New Zealand collected 8 points on the IAAF placings table, finishing 37th overall amongst the competing nations.

NZL Senior Representation Annual Name Event WJC Result Current Status (CWG, OG, WC, Progression (Best performance) WIC) 2016 WIC - 5th - 2011 – 3.60m Improved each 4.70m 2012 – 3.85m year since 2011, to 2016 OG – 3rd – 2013 – 4.11m be vaulting almost 4.80m 2014 – 4.45m 0.5m now above 2017 WC – 9th – 2015 – 4.64m her WJC medal Eliza McCartney Pole Vault 3rd - 4.45m 4.55m 2016 – 4.80m height. 2018 WIC – 4th – 2017 – 4.82m 4.75m 2018 – 4.94m 2018 CWG– 2nd – 4.70m 2014 – 9:56.58 Her best season in 3000m Rosa Flanagan 7th - 10:04.01 2015 – 9:41.42 the Steeplechase Steeplechase - 2016 – 9:49.05 event was the year 2017 – 10:19.88 after the WJC. Now 2018 - dnc running slower over the distance than she did in 2014 2009 – 3.90m His best year was 2010 – 4.50m in 2013 – the year 2011 – 4.75m before the WJC. 2012 – 4.51m Has not competed Pascal Kethers Pole Vault 13gpB - 4.85m - 2013 – 5.10m since 2015. 2014 – 5.05m 2015 – 4.65m 2016 - dnc

TRANSITIONAL ANALYSIS

Of the three athletes who competed at the 2014 edition of the WJC, just one, Eliza McCartney, has gone on to succeed as a Senior athlete. Eliza was a Junior Medallist and went on to become an Olympic and Commonwealth Games medallist as well as a World Championships and World Indoor Championships finalist. The other Junior finalist, Rosa Flanagan improved her time the following year, but sadly has declined in performance times since then. Despite setting National Age Group Records in 2015 in the Steeplechase, she has not “kicked-on” to become a senior representative athlete. Pascal Kethers did not improve his performances from the year before the 2014 WJC. Hence for this small team, my thesis that an athlete has to be a very good (WJC medallist or finalist) junior to become a successful senior is again only partly true, with only one of the finalists making the grade as a senior and one not yet making the transition.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The following is a summary of the athletes who transitioned from the WJC (2010, 2012,2014). Note : A successful Senior athlete is an athlete who made a final or won a medal at an OG, WC, WIC or won a medal at a CWG. A senior representative athlete is an athlete who represented New Zealand at an OG, WC, WIC, or CWG, but did not make the final at the OG, WC, WIC, or win a medal at the CWG.

WJC Medal or Finalist transitioning to Successful Senior

Jacko Gill Julia Ratcliffe Eliza McCartney

WJC not Medal or Finalist transitioning to Successful Senior

Tom Walsh Julian Oakley

WJC Medal or Finalist transitioning to Senior representative

Elizabeth Lamb Siositina Hakeai Portia Bing

WJC not Medal or Finalist transitioning to Senior representative

Joseph Millar Michael Cochrane Angela Smidt Brad Mathas Nicholas Southgate