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Economy & Market Politic, Domestic & International

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Economy & Market Politic, Domestic & International REPRESENTATIVE OFFICE ISTANBUL JANVIER 31, 2006 Terence Singh + 90 212 293 00 32 e-mail: [email protected] ECONOMY & MARKET MARKETS CBT expectations: The Central Bank revealed At Monday’s close, market situation was: the 2nd Expectations Survey for 2006. O/N for ISE Repo market YTL/USD Accordingly, the CPI expectation for the whole & TLR Interbank market year stood at 5.67% vs the previous 5.68% and 14.45% ca 1.3219 Most actively traded T-Bills the growth expectation declined to 4.9% from Date Maturity C/Rate 5%. The year-end FX rate expectations 30/01/06 05/09/07 13.62% averaged at 1.41 with a slight decline while the ISE-100 index ISE- 100 Ref $ annualized rate stood expected at 12.19%. 44,891 3.40 Meanwhile, the current account deficit expectation for 2006 rose to USD 24.6bn from S&P has raised Turkey’s sovereign outlook to USD 24.2bn. positive from stable. The long-term BB- foreign currency and BB local currency and the The CBT has kept the policy rate stable at short-term B sovereign credit ratings on 13.50% in its first meeting in 2006. The CB Turkey were affirmed. The outlook revision said it is estimated that the downward trend of reflects the government’s commitment to inflation may be interrupted in the first quarter prudent macroeconomic policies and structural of 2006, but it will resume its trend starting reform. from the second quarter of 2006. The capacity utilization retreated to 80.6% in FX reserves of the Central Bank fell USD December compared to the previous month 1.9bn to USD 48.6bn in December 30, 2005- figure of 80.9%. January 9, 2005 period. Turkey’s unemployment rate rose to 10.1% Total debt stock rose to USD 246.9bn in in October according to the 3-month moving December from the previous month’s USD average, up from 9.7% in the previous month. 243.1bn. The breakdown is as follows: 51.1% is The increase in unemployment towards the to the market, 22.8% to the public and the end of the year is mainly seasonal due to the remaining 26.1% is composed of external debt. decline in agricultural employment. Domestic debt stock stood at USD 182.4bn as of end-December, up from USD 180.6bn), in The following table depicts the results of auctions line with our expectations. held in the last 2 weeks: Issue Mat. Mat. Bid Sales Cov Net Ann. Date Month NTL* NTL* % Sales Comp Number of tourists rose 9.2% YoY to mn mn NTL* Yield 861,836 in December, cumulating to 21.1 mn mn (%) 17/01/ 5/09/0 20 4,716 1,555 33 2,906 13.56 with a 20.4% YoY increase in 2005. 06 7 17/01/ 12/01/ 61 8,210 2,308 28 4,284 15.30 06 11 24/01/ 19/01/ 61 1,524 536 35 1,467 12.41 06 11 POLITIC, DOMESTIC & INTERNATIONAL AFFAIR EU membership negotiations: chapters regarding free movement of • The European Commission issued a goods, transportation and Customs Union positive report on two chapters – science etc. Accordingly, the European Council is & research and education & culture – expected to decide for opening of actual following the completion of their negotiations on these chapters in March. screening and paved the way for opening The screening process is expected to be of these chapters. The Greek side of completed in September in full. Cyprus reportedly does not have any • Following a satisfactory performance on reservations on these chapters, but on the comprehensive screening on 1 REPRESENTATIVE OFFICE ISTANBUL JANVIER 31, 2006 “agriculture” last week, the government the possibility of a “privileged partnership” will proceed with another challenging status for Turkey. The report will then be chapter of “Customs Union” this week. voted in the General Assembly. • Turkish FM Mr. Gul has announced a detailed action plan on Cyprus, which Pamuk case dropped: Following Minister of envisages simultaneous lifting of the Justice Cicek’s statement that he has no economic embargo and social isolation of jurisdiction to vote on the validity of the Northern Cyprus and opening up of Pamuk case, the Turkish court has officially Turkish and Northern Cyprus ports to dropped the case against the Turkish novelist. Greek Cypriotic vessels under the supervision of UN and EU. • European Parliament approving its Enlargement Strategy Report that removes SECTOR NEWS & PRIVATISATION Banking: Intesa, Dexia, ABN, DZbank, SocGen and • According to Denizbank GM, Hakan Credit Agricole. Ates, the bank is currently having • S&P revised its outlook to positive from partnership talks with 10 foreign investors. stable on six Turkish banks: Ziraat, Isbank, Reportedly Societe Generale and Banca Garanti, Kocbank, Vakifbank and Intesa are among the potential bidders. Oyakbank parallel to its revision of the Denizbank GM declared that the bank will sovereign outlook this week. soon mandate an investment bank to run the partnership talks. Media-Communication: • Reportedly Oyakbank is about to sign The Competition Board approved acquisition partnership deal with a French bank,. of Telsim by Vodafone which won the tender Dexia Bank is rumoured to be the with a USD 4.55bn bid. The transfer will take candidate. Oyakbank is owned by Armed place only after permissions of the SDIF and Forces Pension Fund and ranked 11th in Telecommunications Board are taken and the the Turkish banking sector. concession agreement is approved by the • Reportedly, Dubai Islamic Bank agreed to Telecommunications Board and the Council of purchase MNG Bank, a small sized State. Turkish bank with total assets of USD 403mn, at a total value of USD 160mn. Galataport: Reportedly Deputy PM Sener MGB Bank had 10 branches and 268 declared to PM Erdogan and Finance Minister employees as of the end of September that he would not approve the outcome of the 2005. The bank’s consolidated book value Galataport tender (won by the Ofer-Global stood at USD 51.6mn as of the end of Holding for USD 36.6bn) on grounds that the 3Q05. Council of State issued an injunction that • Reportedly, Morgan Stanley is expected to nullifies the construction plan of Galataport. come up with a shortlist of four interested parties by 20 February with regards to the Privatization Administration Head Kilci sale process of Finansbank. Also according stated that electricity distribution plants, Basak to the news, the due diligence should take Insurance, Izmir Port, National Lottery, Hotels place between 20 February-20 March. and Tekel Tobacco were on the privatization Possible investors include Deutsche Bank, agenda in 2006. He maintained that tender for Tekel Tobacco would be launched in 1H2006. COMPANY NEWS Turkcell has raised its tariffs by 3.4% on subscriber base with an ARPU of around average. The increase in pre-paid tariffs US$34) was 2%. Charges for SMS and related (comprising 80% of he subscriber base with an services, WAP, discount packages, ARPU of around US$9) was around 5%, while international calls and subscription fees that in post-paid tariffs (comprising 20% of the remained unchanged. 2 REPRESENTATIVE OFFICE ISTANBUL JANVIER 31, 2006 Bahrain Offshore Branch, Standard Bank Erdemir: As of 25 January 2006, Erdemir Plc, Vakifbank Bahrain Offshore Branch. announced another average price cut of • Koc Holding announced that it decided to 3.2% on base prices except tinplate products. contribute US$1.875mn to the capital While base price for cold rolled products increase of Enerji Yatirimlari A.S, the declined from US$620 per tonne to US$595 special investment vehicle (SIV) found for per tonne, hot rolled product base price fell the acquisiton of Tupras. Likewise, Aygaz from US$515/tonne to US$500/tonne. This is decided to exercise its rights in the capital the third downwards price adjustment since increase. Accordingly, Aygaz will inject June 2005. USD 500mn to this company. Aygaz will borrow the amount from Koc Holding Tupras through the international credits secured • released gross refining margin of USD 4.9 by the Holding. After the increase, paid-in per barrel in December 2005. The capital of Enerji Yatirimlari A.S will company’s gross refining margin was USD increase to US$2,500mn. 5.4 per barrel in November 2005 and USD 5.3 per barrel in December 2004. Tupras’ POAS average gross refining margin is USD 5.6 • The sale of Petrol Ofisi’s 6.25% stake as a per barrel for the full year of 2005, which block to 32 international institutional is 17% higher than the figure of USD 4.8 investors will be executed today at the ISE per barrel in 2004. Wholesale Market. The free float will • The Koc Holding announced further increase to 13.27% from 7.02% following details about the USD 2.5bn initially the placement. received (see TNL 19/01). Accordingly, • Petrol Ofisi’s major stake holder Dogan USD 1bn loan that will be provided in the Holding has notified that it would launch form of syndicated loan from JP Morgan strategic talks with the Austrian energy Plc., Calyon Corporate and Investment giant OMV for a wide array of cooperation Bank and West LB AG London Branch in and potential partnership in petroleum and equal terms will have 3 years of maturity. natural gas JV projects, including the Moreover, USD 950mn loan that will be refining, drilling, extraction and production provided in the form of syndicated loan strides from JP Morgan Europe Limited and JP Morgan Chase Bank N.A. will have 7 years Turkish Airlines GM Temel Kotil, stated that of maturity secured by Arcelik and Migros through an aggressive expansion program, fleet shares.
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