FRIDAY, MARCH 10, 2017 PROMISING SIBLINGS OF OBSMAR ENTRANTS FOR SMALLER TRACKS, IT'S by Brian DiDonato ABOUT THE DELIVERABLES Similar to a list compiled ahead of last year=s Keeneland September sale that included next-out GIII Iroquois S. & THE GAMBLE romper and GI Breeders= Cup Juvenile runner-up Not This Time (Giant=s Causeway); subsequent GI FrontRunner S. hero Gormley (Malibu Moon); and recently named >TDN Rising Star= Parlor (Lonhro {Aus}), here are a number of lightly raced, promising Florida Fabulous | Leslie Martin runners with siblings set to sell at next week=s OBS March sale. Note that this list is not exhaustive and does not include graded winners like last week=s GIII Palm Beach S. victor Ticonderoga (Tapit), whose full-sister is catalogued as hip 637. Cont. p5 IN TDN EUROPE TODAY Smaller tracks like Delta Downs in Vinton, Louisiana, are struggling to earn their share of the gambling dollar | Boyd Gaming photo CHURCHILL HEADS DERBY ENTRIES Churchill (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}, antepost favourite for the by Dean Towers G1 Investec Derby, heads 129 3-year-olds remaining eligible for the Classic after this week’s scratching stage. ANon-blockbuster@ tracks are swimming with the sharks, but Click or tap here to go straight to TDN Europe. speaking directly to the sports= gambling Asuper user@ represents a workable way forward. In part I, published Mar. 8, we examined the Pegasus World Cup in the context of what's happening in the new, connected world. We think The Stronach Group is on the right track. Using a blockbuster event, and harnessing a willing market of highly engaged horse racing fans (super users), is likely the future of live horse racing at storied, strong venues. This time we'd like to look into the non-blockbuster tracks. What's been happening, and what can they do to increase handle and interest in their product, and by corollary, horse racing? Since 2008 there's been a sea-change in the sport. Smaller foal crops and a shift in betting preference to the larger venues is palpable. The number of wagering events held (races) has dropped by about 25% and handle has followed, attacking the smaller venues most savagely. Cont. p3 PRESIDENT & CO-PUBLISHER Barry Weisbord @barryweisbord [email protected] SR. V.P. & CO-PUBLISHER Sue Morris Finley @suefinley [email protected] V.P., INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS Gary King @garykingTDN [email protected] Friday, March 10, 2017 EDITORIAL [email protected] Editor-in-Chief Jessica Martini @JessMartiniTDN Managing Editor Alan Carasso @EquinealTDN Senior Editor Steve Sherack @SteveSherackTDN Racing Editor Brian DiDonato @BDiDonatoTDN Associate Editors Christie DeBernardis @CDeBernardisTDN Ben Massam @BMassamTDN Assistant Editors Heather Anderson @HLAndersonTDN Joe Bianca @JBiancaTDN ADVERTISING [email protected] Director of Advertising Alycia Borer Advertising Manager Lia Best Advertising Designer Amanda Crelin Advertising Assistants The Dude abides. In 2014, 7-year-old Game on Dude (Awesome Again) put on a Alexa Reisfield Michelle Benson dazzling performance to take a record third renewal of the GI Santa Anita H. in a stakes record time of 1.58.17. | Horsephotos Photo Editor/Dir. of Distribution Sarah K. Andrew @SarahKAndrew [email protected] SUPER SAVER COLT EQUALS OBS RECORD 6 Social Media Strategist A de Meric Sales-consigned son of Super Saver--Sandi’s Ready, Justina Severni by More Than Ready scorched the SafeTrack surface in :20 1/5 during the first of three under-tack previews for next week’s Director of Customer Service Vicki Forbes OBS March Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training in Central Florida. [email protected] The clocking ties the fastest ever recorded at OBS. Director of Information Technology Ray Villa FOAL CROP NUMBERS STEADY IN 2016 8 [email protected] For the first time in better than a decade, the number of horses WORLDWIDE INFORMATION foaled in North America did not fall when compared to the previous International Editor year. According to the Jockey Club Fact Book, roughly 20,850 foals Kelsey Riley @kelseynrileyTDN were born in 2016, the same as in 2015. [email protected] European Editor Emma Berry [email protected] Newmarket Bureau, Cafe Racing Sean Cronin & Tom Frary [email protected] 60 Broad Street, Suite 100 Red Bank, NJ 07701 732-747-8060 | 732-747-8955 (fax) www.TheTDN.com TDN HEADLINE NEWS • PAGE 3 OF 9 • THETDN.COM FRIDAY • MARCH 10, 2017 The exception on television, thus far, has been live sports, which still command huge pay TV fees. But according to the Chernin Group, that's about to change as well. They believe that The non-big box stores of the sport are in a very difficult the sports leagues will be drawn towards a new direct to position. Although some try to follow consumer system, where they sell their product--not through Gulfstream's big event strategy, it hasn't television deals--but deals with customers themselves. This worked very well--and in my view it won't-- over-the-web coverage will be highly personalized, because because (as we noted in part I) they simply that's what consumers are starting to demand, and it represents aren't built for it. If these tracks can't the best chance to maximize revenues. increase revenue (using the handy chart "The days of one feed with two announcers in the booth are below) from the live race day portion, and numbered. There could be a data-heavy broadcast for one they clearly have little influence over the audience, a Barstool Sports stream for the comedy-inclined, a owner portion, the only thing left is the Bill Simmons broadcast for a pop-culture audience, a Sports largest part of the revenue pie--the Action stream for gamblers, etc," they wrote. gambler. It's their last line that catches my eye. Currently smaller handle tracks in the U.S. and Canada lament they make little headway in the market, because, in part, they do not have a great training colony, fast horses, or well-known riders. That's true, but in my view, they're letting the big track paradigm cloud their thinking; they're trying to sell what they want to be, not what they are. They do not fully comprehend their market. When someone is betting Delta or Turfway on a weeknight they aren't tuning in for pomp and pageantry or for great horses and riders. They are hard-core super users, looking for action and bettable races. These tracks should give that niche market what it wants. Through their deliverable--a simulcast feed--I believe everything should be about the gamble. Each distinct race is a puzzle, with an outcome, where someone gets paid. The broadcast team should focus on, for How can the gambler be targeted? I believe through a strategy example, why this upcoming maiden race with a 3-5 is a great based on modern deliverables, and extolling their offering as betting affair, because the 3-5 shot got an easy lead in his last, only a gambling product. and now there's a 50-1 shot who has a sneaky pace figure. It's Since 2010, something very interesting has been happening in irrelevant the favorite is not trained by Todd Pletcher, not a top the broadcast world. The share of minutes of TV watched has prospect, or the 50-1 shot ran a zero Beyer figure last time. All been falling rapidly, primarily among younger viewers. that matters is that there will be a gambling result. A modern feed for the tech-savvy simulcast market (these people are already betting online) could be used to give gamblers statistics on path bias, hot trainers, cold riders and more. Horse racing is probably the most statistically driven sport on Earth. Why do so many feeds seem to ignore that? Sadly, some simulcast feeds don't even show the horses warming up, and I've seen more than one post parade where the lead pony is blocking the horse we want to wager--or not wager--on. Tracks who allow this to happen might as well be speaking Swahili to the super user. Cont. p4 TDN HEADLINE NEWS • PAGE 4 OF 9 • THETDN.COM FRIDAY • MARCH 10, 2017 Dean Towers cont. Instead, why not offer some of this money out in seeded Gulfstream has the Ablockbuster effect@ and they can be mass pools? At large tracks, seeded pools--i.e. carryovers--increase market and speak to everyone. The smaller tracks simply handle because they create value via a takeout reduction. At cannot. As the Chernin Group noted in their report, in the smaller tracks, it's more than that, because even a small future, Aevery niche will reach its true scale.@ Scaling starts with carryover can boost pool size, which is very important to a focused deliverable. gamblers. Once smaller tracks have delivered their product through modern mediums with a precise gambling message, then I believe it's time to work on the gamble itself. First, most --even those with small on-track crowds-- continually want to race on weekend afternoons, competing directly with large tracks. If this does not make particular economic sense (or there's a hard and fast reason for it), why not race when others are not? A small track carding their deepest, most-bettable card when others are not racing can be fruitful. Second, if a track--like so many--has poor on-track handle and To illustrate this power, not long ago at a harness track higher than average takeout, why not lower it? A signal fee of, (Pompano Park), a tiny super high five carryover of $1,556 for example, 4%, means the venue (and their horsemen) receive attracted almost $19,000 in new money (about 500% higher 4 cents of each dollar bet whether the top-line juice is 25% or than usual).