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Understanding the Anthropogenic Nature of the Observed Rainfall Decline Across South-Eastern Australia

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Understanding the Anthropogenic Nature of the Observed Rainfall Decline Across South-Eastern Australia The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Understanding the anthropogenic nature of the observed rainfall decline across south-eastern Australia Bertrand Timbal... [et al.]. CAWCR Technical Report No. 026 July 2010 Understanding the anthropogenic nature of the observed rainfall decline across south-eastern Australia Bertrand Timbal1…[et al.] 1Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology) CAWCR Technical Report No. 026 July 2010 ISSN: 1835-9884 National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry Title: Understanding the anthropogenic nature of the observed rainfall decline across South Eastern Australia [electronic resource] / B. Timbal…[et al.]. ISBN: 9781921605901. Series: CAWCR technical report; 26. Notes: Includes bibliographical references and index. Subjects: Rain and rainfall--Australia. Climatic changes--Australia. Other Authors/Contributors: Timbal, B., Arblaster, J., Braganza, K.., Fernandez, E., Hendon, H., Murphy, B., Raupach, M., Rakich,C., Smith, I., Whan K. and Wheeler, M. Dewey Number: 551.5772994 Enquiries should be addressed to: Bertrand Timbal Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research: A partnership between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO GPO Box 1289 Melbourne Victoria 3001, Australia [email protected] Copyright and Disclaimer © 2010 CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology. To the extent permitted by law, all rights are reserved and no part of this publication covered by copyright may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means except with the written permission of CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology. CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology advise that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based on scientific research. The reader is advised and needs to be aware that such information may be incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must therefore be made on that information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To the extent permitted by law, CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology (including each of its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole) and any information or material contained in it. FOREWORD This report provides a single coherent compilation and synthesis of the research work undertaken in the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) as part of the research provided to Theme 1 of the South Eastern Australia Climate Initiative during the three years of Phase 1 (SEACI-1) and the 6-month extension (SEACI-1P) of the program. Most of the work described in this report was originally published in several final project reports that can be accessed on the SEACI web site http://www.seaci.org which is hosted by the Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA). This document also updates some early results. The report was compiled by Bertrand Timbal (CAWCR-BoM) whom is the sole author of the conclusions presented herein. Several other researchers from the BoM (CAWCR and other branches) and other institutions have contributed to the research reported here: • Bradley Murphy (CAWCR) did most of the research in Projects 1.1.1 and 1.1.2 and contributed to Project 1.3.1 (Chapters 2, 3 and 4); • Elodie Fernandez (CAWCR) performed most of the calculations for Project 1.4.1, 1.5.1 and 1.2.1P (Chapters 5, 6 and 8); • Karl Braganza (National Climate Centre, NCC), Harry Hendon (CAWCR) and Matt Wheeler (CAWCR) did the analysis related to the Southern Annular Mode presented in Project 1.1.2 (Chapter 3); • Clinton Rakich (NSW regional office, BoM) did the analysis relating to the Gayndah- Deniliquin Index presented in Project 1.1.2 (Chapter 3); • Julie Arblaster (National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR, USA and CAWCR- BoM) contributed to Project 1.5.1 (Chapter 6); • Kirien Whan (Australian National University, ANU) performed the calculations used in Project 1.3.1P (Chapter 9); • Michael Raupach (CSIRO) provided the surface hydrological variable used in Project 1.3.1P (Chapter 9); and • Ian Smith (CSIRO) contributed additional research included in Project 1.1.1P and contributed to other parts of this document. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The support of the funding agencies in SEACI is acknowledged. This report benefited from insightful and numerous comments made by Scott Power (BoM /CAWCR) and Rae Moran (VIC DSE). Finally, I would like to acknowledge Prof. Neville Nicholls, who was the BoM’s main architect of the SEACI science plan before leaving for Monash University, leaving others to fill the blank pages. Without his vision, this report would not exist. ii Understanding the anthropogenic nature of the observed rainfall decline across south-eastern Australia CONTENTS Foreword.........................................................................................................................i Acknowledgments .........................................................................................................i Contents........................................................................................................................iii List of figures ..............................................................................................................vii list of tables ................................................................................................................xiv Executive summary ......................................................................................................1 1 Introduction and overview ..................................................................................5 2 The changes in south-eastern Australian climate............................................9 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................9 2.2 Assembling a climatological dataset for SEA ............................................................9 2.3 Characterisation of the climate of the last decade in SEA ......................................12 2.4 Large-scale modes of variability and their relation to SEA......................................14 2.5 Regional contrast.....................................................................................................17 2.6 Conclusions .............................................................................................................20 3 Attribution of the observed climate changes to large-scale modes of variability ............................................................................................................22 3.1 Introduction ..............................................................................................................22 3.2 Improved detection ..................................................................................................22 3.3 Past trends in the SAM and their influence on rainfall and MSLP...........................25 3.4 Future trends in the SAM and their influence on rainfall and MSLP .......................27 3.5 The influence of the sub-tropical ridge on south-east Australian rainfall ................30 3.6 North of the sub-tropical ridge: the influence of MSLP gradient on rainfall.............32 3.7 Can the heat wave of April 2005 be attributed to global warming?.........................34 4 Optimising an analogue downscaling technique to relate observed surface changes to large-scale predictors......................................................37 4.1 Introduction ..............................................................................................................37 4.2 Expanding the existing downscaling model to humidity dataset .............................37 4.3 Choice of coherent climatic regions ........................................................................38 4.4 Optimization of the predictors..................................................................................40 4.5 Skill of the SDM .......................................................................................................41 4.5.1 Temperature ........................................................................................................42 4.5.2 Rainfall.................................................................................................................44 4.5.3 Dew-point temperature.........................................................................................46 4.5.4 Pan-evaporation...................................................................................................47 iii 4.6 Conclusions............................................................................................................. 49 5 Ability of the statistical downscaling technique to reproduce observed changes...............................................................................................................51 5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 51 5.2 Update on the methodology and preliminary comments ........................................ 51 5.3 Reproduction of drying trends across SEA............................................................. 52 5.4 Reproduction of the warming trends......................................................................
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