NON-RECOGNIZED STATES, SECURITY THREATS AND POST CONFLICT ‘STATENESS’: THE QUARTET OF POST-SOVIET SPACE1

Violetta Manukyan (Petrosyan)

EUCACIS Online Paper

No. 11 March 2020

PhD Support Programme The EU, Central Asia and the Caucasus in the International System About EUCACIS “The EU, Central Asia and the Caucasus in the International System” (EUCACIS) is a PhD Support Programme for Postgraduates and Doctoral Researchers in Central Asia and the Southern Caucasus, organized by the Institut für Europäische Politik (IEP) and the Centre international de formation européenne (CIFE). Funded by the Volkswagen Foundation and the programme Erasmus+, it offers scholarships for three years to excellent postgraduates who are working on a doctoral thesis in political science, contemporary history or economics on a topic related to its thematic focus at a university or academy of sciences in the Southern Caucasus or Central Asia (including Afghanistan, the Kashmir region in India and the autonomous region Xinjiang in China). It is the objective of the EUCACIS programme to provide EUCACIS.eu intensive PhD research training for its participants to bring them closer to international standards, to support them until they submit their doctoral theses, and to help them establish their own networks with other young researchers in the target regions and in Europe. This will be achieved through four international conferences, four PhD schools, two research training stays and continuous online coaching.

About IEP Since 1959, the Institut für Europäische Politik (IEP) has been active in the field of European integration as a non-profit organisation. It is one of Germany’s leading research institutes on foreign and European policy. IEP works at the interface of academia, politics, administration, and civic education. In doing so, IEP’s task include scientific analyses of problems surrounding European politics and integration. www.iep-berlin.de

About CIFE The Centre international de formation européenne (CIFE) is a private institution of higher education and research, founded in 1954 with its head office in Nice and branch offices in Berlin, Brussels and Istanbul. It receives special funding in the framework of the Jean Monnet Programme of the European Union. Students from all continents enroll in its programmes and work as senior officials, consultants and academic experts after graduation. www.cife.eu

About the Series EUCACIS Online Paper comprise research and policy papers on topics related to the thematic focus of the programme, written by fellows of the EUCACIS PhD Support Programme and members of the wider EUCACIS network. It aims at making the debates within the network, notably during the EUCACIS conferences and PhD schools, accessible to a wider public. The papers are available on the programme website: www.eucacis.eu About the Author Violetta Manukyan (Petrosyan) is an expert at the Standing Committee on Foreign Relations of the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia, as well as a lecturer and a PhD student in International Relations at Yerevan Brusov State University of Languages and Social Sciences (YSULS) UNESCO Chair on Human Rights, Democracy and Political Science. Her research interests include the processes of post-conflict state-building and stateness, the connection between the international recognition and the stateness level of the states, issues of state sovereignty and state legitimacy, war-torn societies, and the role and impact of international organizations on state-building and stateness.

Editorial team

Publishers: Prof. Dr Mathias Jopp, Head of International Programmes, IEP PD Dr Matthias Waechter, Director General, CIFE

Editors: Salome Minesashvili, Project Assistant, CIFE Laila Allemand, Project Manager/Research Associate, IEP

Layout: Dimitar Keranov, IEP

Place of publication: Berlin

ISSN: 2627-7204

Internet: www.eucacis.eu

Email: [email protected]

Hashtag: #EUCACIS

published in March 2020 4 EUCACIS Online Paper No. 11 - Non-Recognized States, Security Threats and Post-Conflict ‘stateness‘: The Quartet of Post-Soviet Space 1. Introduction established in the second half of the 20 in real life? The experience of both countries development. But is everything that smooth mechanism for providing safety, prosperity and goal ofeachnation as itisseen as the main to the emergence of new states, but that not geopolitical systems objectively contribute that thedevelopmenttrendsofmodern has fundamental reasons: aswecanassume not only driven by numerical data, but also of half today. However,theproblemis,ofcourse, first the in the 1990s and that manyof them still exist registered was claims fact thatthehighest rate ofethno-national and security,hencerequiresprecisestudy. a greatthreattodomesticand regional stability state fragilityandfailure–asaresultimposing etc. This bucket of problems is a prolific base for knowledge of how to build a sovereign state, its consequences,lackofexperienceand limitation ofinternationalrelationsand stringent conflict, of phases ‘stateness’, of consequences for difficulties particularly, conditioned by challenges and additional exist which haven’t been recognized yet, asthere complicated forthegroup of thosecountries, globalization. But theproblemisevenmore less complicated transformational process: they were compelled to copewith another not time decades wasapplicable.Atthesame neither experience,norknowledgeofprevious formation of statehood and ‘stateness’, as unprecedented challenges along the wayof and their‘stateness’levels. and at the same time fragile systems of states thecomplex to improve difficult more even it makes which states, across differ strictly tracks Moreover, currentsituationsanddevelopment prosperity and to ensuring development. state does not automatically lead to security, and prior,showsthattheestablishmentof The establishmentofastateisthecentral Yet another cumbersome issue is the The societiesof these countries faced th century 1 Recognized States: the ‘Peace Index’ 2. ‘Stateness’ Assessment ofNon- to theidea,thatstatehood/legalpersonality detail. and its objectiveswill be discussed in more section, this special approach, its methodology alongside the recognized ones. In the following them but alsotoassess recognized states, for thecomprehensiveassessmentofnon- index, which not only gives an opportunity the ‘Peace Index’ is anew integral assessment assessment of non-recognized states. Hence, ofthe ‘Freedom in the World’ index) do not cover the the exception (with assessments field existing indexes – both integral and segregated social and security It is noteworthy, that all the all four fields of ‘stateness’ – political, economic, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistriа across states ofPost-Sovietspace:Nagorno-Karabakh, the levelsof‘stateness’fournon-recognized this paper will also comprehensively assess Using this model, theso-called ‘Peace Index’, ofan the presentation be of‘stateness’. integral modelofassessment should step first requires a set of comprehensive actions. The of peoplelivinginthoseregionsandnearby. those entities – hence prolonging the sufferings much is done to ensure the development of building and ‘stateness’ of the factors ensuring the processes of state- definition This has been derived by a comprehensive study law. international of subject of the international community of being a ofperforming its mainfunctions, of becomingafullmember capacity state’s the as defined tool of ‘stateness’ available. ‘Stateness’ is at present the main evaluative and analytical of‘stateness’,which the assessment remains Petrosyan in2018/. to Manukyan Science 1-4(2016):15-44./Author from changedhersurname Post-Conflict of Journal State-Building, Armenian Political Violetta Petrosyan, From Conflict to Peace: The Features of The solution of the afore-named problems We have developed an integral modelfor 1 . Thatsamestudyled EUCACIS Online Paper No. 11 - Non-Recognized States, Security Threats and Post-Conflict ‘stateness‘: The Quartet of Post-Soviet Space 5 building and ‘stateness’, with the emphasis the emphasis with and ‘stateness’, building the of study comprehensive the on and recognized both levels of ‘stateness’ separating without states, non-recognized to any a privilege of type any them or giving of them. features the as sub-indexes Select them collocate and ‘stateness’ conditioning all representing indexes outlined the within the fields of ‘stateness’: political, economic, turn, its in them, of Each security. and social which sub-indexes, through is represented sphere and render the outlined thoroughly of course all the necessary prerequisites conditioning the effective determination level. To ‘stateness’ of assessment and of equivalence the with problems avoid states and the all assessment criteria for it is necessary to assessment objectivity, of ensure the universality, i.e. applicability each sub-index to all the states. not do indexes existing the of majority The assessment part of represent the content Instead, of ‘stateness’ level of each country. numerical scores only publishing are they of course and front of each sub-index in their sum – the final score rating of each get to impossible case, it’s this state. In the carried of the results about information objectiveness assess their assessment, to them to as to apply as well validity, and these avoid to order research. In own our the in problems, all the results obtained will be represented scope of ‘Peace Index’ reports. detailed very in sub-indexes the by Draw special attention to security sphere. As a rule, in integral models security represented as a separate sector is not security represent they Instead, sphere. with only - index political within indicators included or maximum two irrelevantly one But taking into account the sub-indexes. also assess would fact, that the index non-recognized of level ‘stateness’ the states, which in of terms of absence or underdevelopment post-conflict phase in international and local control mechanisms • • • . The lack of it . The lack 2 While composing the model, include the composing While and all the basic features conditioning the processes of state- underpinning So, one can argue that generally speaking, generally that argue can one So, aims to index the reason why the is This a new represents The ‘Peace Index’ Violetta Petrosyan, Stateness and its Connection to and its Connection to Stateness Petrosyan, Violetta on Emerged of States Case The International Recognition: Self-Determination, Armenian Journal to the Right of Peoples changed her 75-102. /Author 1-8 (2018): Science of Political Manukyan to in 2018/. Petrosyan surname from • 2 is a constituent part, particularly, in fact, the fact, in part, particularly, constituent a is state ensuring of force and driving very basis and sustainability development inevitably leads to a number of problems for of problems leads to a number inevitably examples later in shown be will as ‘stateness’, states. of the reviewed non-recognized status poses a real a non-recognized same time, this the state. At a for challenge both states - of a number always true: not is recently time ago and quite a long recognized than worse situation a much are currently in - states, even though some non-recognized recognized being of privileges the enjoy they that challenges have to face the do not and Hence, although non-recognition. come with a a must and is personality statehood/legal basis for the efficiency does it of existence ‘stateness’ processes, the of state-building and and not automatically ensure development sustainability. assessment of of model integral represent an both for ‘stateness’, which will be applicable states. Integral and non-recognized recognized to record assessment of ‘stateness’ allows both progress and regress simultaneously in all the fields of‘stateness’ henceinternational states and to the opportunity giving an areas and problem the on focus to community process. to promptly undertake their solution Such approach would allow thereby security threats and destabilization, fighting against conditioned security, which peace and fostering the name of the index – ‘Peace Index’. approach: for fulfilling theattempts to solve the following problems: outlined aim, it 6 EUCACIS Online Paper No. 11 - Non-Recognized States, Security Threats and Post-Conflict ‘stateness‘: The Quartet of Post-Soviet Space Soviet Space Conflict ‘stateness’ of Quartet ofthe Post- The Features andChallenges ofPost- 3. Non-Recognized Status andStability? fragile pointsinallnon-recognized states that areof notional importance. Themost factors connectedtointernationalrecognition political two the are effectiveness government each state. well as calculatethe ‘Peace Index’ scores for Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria, as non-recognized Nagorno-Karabakh, states: detected in each of these fields for we the reviewed problems significant most the discuss will non-recognized status. In the following, we and features post-conflict of because arise can in our cases, also outlining the threats that international recognition; and given its absence especially vitalfortheachievementof that are fields security, thushighlighting the mainfeatures four all through of ‘stateness’:political,economic,socialand level ‘stateness’ the of integral assessment, this paper reviews ‘stateness’ withintheafore-presentedindex for theregionalsecurity. thenon- for ones recognized states themselvesand afterwards greater into flow to tend study. Ifneglected,thesetypesofproblems comprehensive and focus specific need which status brings a bunch of new peculiar problems, a non-recognized But itself. in process difficult assessment of levels of ‘stateness’ is a rather As already mentioned before, the oiia field: Political Using our comprehensive view of a newlevel. study ofsecuritysectorshouldberaisedto recognized or non-recognized states), the matter (no entities non-stable peace, and the currentthreatstointernationalsecurity given long forpeculiar attention.Moreover, activities, the factors conditioning security and the emergence development of illegalgroups and for ground prolific over the state become truthfully State legitimacy and – andinteracting with othersourcesofpower legitimacy coexisting, competing and conflicting of sources different with - entities post-conflict issue of legitimacy is very complex in fragile offer and legitimacy, alternative governance systems. Therefore,the and capacity state of networks – cantakethe advantage of lack – e.g.warlords,rebelsandcriminal actors have notbeenfully established, thenon-state Nagorno-Karabakh Republic(NKR). registered duringthedecadesofexistence been have that governance, effective in results the development,but also collapsethegood stop only not would conflict armed large-scale the borderline,asresumptionof across constantly atriskbecauseofthetension good results and further development are and civil organizations. However, the established institutions state functioning effectively good governance – having established registering outstanding results in democratic it. from profit Nagorno-Karabakh, on the otherhand, is possible best the gaining and with one another for stepping into position fighting rather are but situation, the handle to to undertake any amendments and reforms the political elite of these states arenot trying In these circumstancestherepresentativesof the funds which significant Moscow, portion of the budget of these states. of influence the time, governments’activitiesarelimitedby a high rate ofcorruption,etc.Atthesame basic services, pooradministrativecoordination, their fulfil to functions and to provide public goods and inability like problems rather badgovernance–permanentlyfacing are characterizedby Ossetia andTransnistria community bewilling to assist.Abkhazia, South can beeasilyaddressedshould the international of incapability or lackof knowledge/experience when dealing with non-willingness, asthecases issue. No doubt, the most difficult are the cases incapable and/or reluctant to work on that themselves find entities these of the governments arule, As effectiveness. government and are indeed the issues of good governance In the states, where the state institutions EUCACIS Online Paper No. 11 - Non-Recognized States, Security Threats and Post-Conflict ‘stateness‘: The Quartet of Post-Soviet Space 7 https://www.osce.org/ . 6 Freedom in the World 2009: Abkhazia, accessed February Abkhazia,2009: February accessed World the in Freedom Economic Economic economic field: For each state non- four the all that problem, major The odihr/34091?download=true. 28, 2018, https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom- world/2009/abkhazia Cleansing on Georgians ,; Ethnic August since Occupation and Invasion Russian from Resulted 28, 2018, February 8, 2008, accessed

factors are undoubtedly of high investments. and trade of issues the especially significance, fact, states are, in non-recognized the But absence of the afore-named facing almost an stringent by conditioned relations, particularly relations, international of type any of limitation But if we take into economic ones. including cumbersome this states in account, that these also develop their economy while should plight a pack of severe challenges: faced with being the of rehabilitation and reconstruction the phase, the country after the military whole globalization the of deepening worldwide intensive and extensive process of process, the ‘a frozen still of context armament in the conflict’ and, in the case Post-Soviet Post-Soviet space, the process of of the countries of is, community international transformation; the the these states under in fact, directly putting fail. This even fragile and becoming threat of too much even be pack of challenges would for a recognized state – with its already firmly what to say established international relations, about the ones lacking them? Post-Soviet space share, states of recognized state own their to ensure non-ability is the South Abkhazia, of state budgets The budget. Transnistria to a large extent rely Ossetia and on the financial aid fromeconomy comprises of agricultural products Russia. Abkhazia’s (tea, tobacco, (again financed wine by investments from and Russian businessmen) and fruits), financial aid tourism from Russia 6 region was set to ethnic cleansing and about cleansing and about set to ethnic region was made to leave Georgians were ethnic 250.000 the region , 4 . This was the was . This 5 After armed conflict, very often 3. All in all, the issue of legitimacy is, indeed, of issue all, the in All See Armen Grigoryan A., Armenian Authorities Arrest Former See Armen Grigoryan Former Arrest A., Armenian Authorities of Parliamentary on Eve Minister” “Defense KarabakhSeparatist accessed 45, Issue: 14 Volume: Monitor Daily Elections,Eurasia 27, 2018, https://jamestown.org/program/armenian- February authorities-arrest-former-separatist-karabakh-defense- minister-eve-parliamentary-elections/. Roland Paris, ed. Timothy D. Sisk, ed., The Contradictions Contradictions The Sisk, ed., D. Timothy ed. Roland Paris, Peace of Post-War the Con Building: Confronting of State 2008). Routledge, (London: Operations Conflict Management Failure, State to Pathways Jack Goldstone, 285-296. 25-4 (2008): Science and Peace power is focused in the hands of the actors, hands of the actors, focused in the power is turn, control the armed groups their in who, unless the Constitution and relevant laws have laws relevant and Constitution the unless been the elections have and adopted been held on their basis. Hence, in the in role warlords, whose are the actors key the first phase decrease, gradually should phase second the right the in moving is process the course, if of the are examples, when there But direction. from very eager to relinquish warlords are not the attained power and fight for it through all the possible means, e.g. in Nagorno-Karabakh Forces Commander Self-Defence the Republic assassination an launched Samvel Babayan Ghukasyan, Arkadi President then on attempt got Babayan survived. president the which prison years in 14 to sentenced 5 3 4 and interest. This further complicates external complicates further This interest. and actors’ effective intervention during the post- conflict period last chord of post-conflict features’NKR process: afterwards the governing on influence ‘clean up’ and rehabilitate was able to fully spectacular the governance system – showing results in good governance. for all these kinds point a very vulnerable nor of states, as neither their sovereignty, legitimate by their elections are perceived as Abkhazia, In community. international the not only a problem of legitimacy emerged with the elections or sovereignty, but with the itself: independence declaration of process of was held the referendum for independence of the after the majority of the population 8 EUCACIS Online Paper No. 11 - Non-Recognized States, Security Threats and Post-Conflict ‘stateness‘: The Quartet of Post-Soviet Space subsequent lesser financial support coming support financial lesser subsequent of an economic downturn in Russia and bright manifestation is the fact, that because subsidies, loansandnaturalgassupplies. The in theTransnistrianeconomythrough direct have resultedin the recessionofRussia’s 10 9 8 7 i making up more than half ofthebudget of thebudget of South Ossetia Russia’s aidcomprisesalmostoftheentirety n mnfcuig txie production) (textile electricity manufacturing and production), (steel industry heavy Transnistria’s economy is mainly comprised of is notyetsuppliedtoallthepartsofstate. dependency on Russia. Theelectricity,however, South Ossetia, thusfurtherenhancing their ofelectricity, supply they had to run an electric cable through the off cut has Georgia many peopleonceworkingtherejobless.As have debtsand scarce workplaces–leaving that function nowadays, areinneedofrepair, once richwith factories,but thefewfactories, by 27% in 2015 Russia by7.7%andariseofexporttotheEU EU, whichresultedinadeclineofexportto to the exports tariff-free enjoyed Moldova, of with the EU in 2014, Transnistria - de-jure part Moldova signed the Association Agreement nfluence, but Russia still has a major stake a has still Russia but nfluence, org/node/78636. Russia to EU, accessed February 28,2018, https://eurasianet. Moldova: Separatist Transnistria Region Reorienting Trade from aided-economy-characteristics-transnistrian-economic-model osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2013-05-16/ economic model, accessed February 28,2018,https://www. An aidedeconomy. The ofthe characteristics Transnistrian . world/2017/south-ossetia 28, 2018,https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom- Freedom inthe World Ossetia,accessed 2017:South February 28, 2018,https://old.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=30180. Russia Increases Financial accessed Aid to February Abkhazia, abkhazia-and-south-ossetia-time-to-talk-trade%20(1).pdf 28, 2018, N°249,24MayGroup 2018,accessed Europe February Report Ossetia: andSouth embrace; Abkhazia Time to Talk Trade, Crisis https://www.ecfr.eu/article/essay_abkhazia_russias_tight_ Abkhazia-Russia’s Tight Embrace, accessed February 28,2018, https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/249- 10 . It may seemthat this would 8 : theregionwas 9 . After 7 . . ; any opie o mnn (od copper), (gold, mining of comprised mainly of Transnistria hence the one to pay back the debt instead has namedMoldova to bethe borrower, for itspro-Western/pro-EUinclination, Russia time ‘punish’ back andatthesame Moldova an attempttoconquerTransnistria’sheart to Russianenergysupplier Gazprom.Butin one too:thedebtofabout5.8billion dollars until recently,hadtofaceanother Transnsitria, salaries in 2016 salaries itself incapable tofully pay the pensions and from it,theTransnistriangovernmentfound 14 13 12 11 for itsbudgetandfiscalreforms ask Russiaforalong-termloanof$130 million Transnistria’s problems,andthelatterhad to rapidly growing is still small, but it is noteworthy, that it is and relies onArmenia’said.Theeconomy it isyetnotabletocompileitsstatebudget as field, economic the within issues faces Nagorno-Karabakh still fields, social and political . news/2018/04/12/Artsakh-state-budget-revenues/1932570 2018, accessed 14,2018,https://www.panorama.am/en/ April state budgetrevenues exceed Artsakh by 5.6% in firstquarter . aid-to-transnistria-01-22-2018 www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/russia-to-give-financial- Financial Aid to Transnistria, accessed February 28,2018,http:// loan-130-million-budget-fiscal-reforms/; RussiaPledges More www.moldova.org/en/transnistria-asks-russia-long-term- andfiscal “budget reforms”, accessed 28,2018,http:// February Transnistria asksRussiafor along-term loanof$130millionfor transnistria. 2018, Freddom inthe World 2016: Transnistria, accessed February 28, political-weapon-against-moldovainterview-238043-eng/. www.moldova.org/en/russia-uses-transnistrian-gas-debt-as- weapon against Moldova, accessed February 28, 2018, debt-transnistria/; Russiauses Transnistrian gasdebtaspolitical org/en/gazprom-rejected-moldovas-proposal-separate-gas- Transnistria, accessed February 28,2018,http://www.moldova. rejected Moldova’s proposal to separate itsgasdebtfrom that of ; Gazprom russian-gas-for-moldova-who-will-pay-the-debts February 28, 2018, Despite the registered good results in Russian gasfor Moldova: Who willpay thedebts?,accessed https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2016/ 12 11 . However, this hasn’t solved 14 https://eadaily.com/en/news/2017/02/13/ . Along with theseproblems . Theeconomicactivityis 13 . http:// EUCACIS Online Paper No. 11 - Non-Recognized States, Security Threats and Post-Conflict ‘stateness‘: The Quartet of Post-Soviet Space 9 control , to date 18 https://www.nytimes. ceding too much . . The mass demonstration was . At the same time protests are . At the same time protests are . But the issues with workplaces issues with workplaces . But the 20 19 17 https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2016/ https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2016/ Freedom in the World 2016: Abkhazia, accessed March 11, Abkhazia,2016: March accessed World the in Freedom 2018, abkhazia. 2.8 billion rubles in 2009 for Particularly Russia allocated social amenities and infrastructure, and restoring rebuilding or damaged during the 2008 war. utilities destroyed 11, March 2016: SouthOssetia, accessed World in the Freedom 2018, south-ossetia. Abkhazia of Georgian Under Pressure, Resigns President 2018, 11, March accessed com/2014/06/02/world/europe/president-resigns-in-georgias- breakaway-region-of-abkhazia.html there are no efforts to address is of exceptional and, what the lack of industry the issue of importance, the problem of are even more complicated in South Ossetia, Ossetia, South in more complicated are even rate high a very characterized by is which a region once rich with of unemployment: factories, many units and the industrial workplaces they offered islack of them and leaves the an almost total nowadays facing subsistence on live to population the majority of situation drives farming. The afore-mentioned rate of against the high protests frequent the which for unemployment, and poverty its and government blames the population mismanagement, budgetary and economic coordination, corruption, poor administrative and related slow post-war reconstruction of international aid embezzling to Moscow attributed to the public anger raised by a treaty a by anger raised public the to attributed broader giving was signed with Russia, which lack Russia, the to military power and economic policy liberal Ankvab’s reforms and economic of Georgians, mainly his decision towards ethnic to passports and citizenship Abkhaz granting of 17 18 19 20 not even required to provide declarations provide declarations required to not even of income held on nationalist incentives as well: one of the of one as well: on nationalist incentives held Sukhumi, in 2014 in held was major protests supporters of Abkhaz with 10.000 Abkhazia president then of office the storming opposition making ultimately and Ankvab Aleksandr him resign . But the elected the But . 15 Overall, without ensuring public ensuring Overall, without . 16 However, Abkhazia and South Ossetia fail Ossetia South and However, Abkhazia Social field: Richard Batley, Claire Mcloughlin, Engagement with Non-State Mcloughlin, with Non-State Engagement Claire Richard Batley, State-Building Reconciling States: in Fragile Service Providers Review 28-2 (2010): Policy and Service Development Delivery, 131-154. RethinkingWyeth, and Peace-Building Vanessa Sisk, Timothy Policy Clarity, Conceptual Countries: War-Torn State-Building in Draft for Implications, discussion note and Practical Guidance, Fragility, Network International on Conflict and the OECD DAC 2009. to fulfil their basic functionsgoods and services. they are not public In fact, and to provide society’s the steps towards meeting any taking Abkhazia expectations. The workplaces in are few in number and to greater extent are related to the sphere of tourism and services. The salaries are low, the workplaces and are scarce,corruption opportunities while remains extensive. Government officials are 15 16 manufacturing industries, agriculture, agriculture, industries, manufacturing polishing. diamond jewellery and construction, issue to address the is trying The government economic rehabilitation of number a with projects. authorities also do not restrain from taking authorities also do not restrain goods public the advantages of misusing the interests. The afore- for the sake of their own acceptable, as s state should not is mentioned and internal from both to protect itself able be being simultaneously external threats, while – regardless obliged to protect the population of ethnicity security, the economy and public services public and economy the security, be peace cannot and work cannot simply examples are Somalia and Apparent obtained. Afghanistan. But the difficulties of the limited fragile capacities in and representation public post-conflict states facilitate and of key activities the provision focusing the process of non-state some of hands the services in non- local and international including actors – power inherited organizations, governmental or armed holders and in some cases criminal competing and are challenging groups, who authorities elected the with 10 EUCACIS Online Paper No. 11 - Non-Recognized States, Security Threats and Post-Conflict ‘stateness‘: The Quartet of Post-Soviet Space funds forthebirthofeachchild couples and additional money aftermarriage also triestostipulate birth rate by granting and accusations.Thegovernment all theclaims by presenting precisedocumentationdenying was abletoaddressthe following accusations small group of powerful elite, thegovernment major industries and economicactivitiesbya there were claimsabout the privatization of Though websites. official the on public made the stateactivitiesandespeciallyexpensesare of accountability: everyyeardetailed reports on the of government is transparent and has a high level work The 5%). (about unemployment for the workplaces citizens, which is manifested in the low rate of new offering is industry of thecitizens.Year-by-yeardevelopment of do theirbesttomeettheneedsandexpectations effectively an established functioning state and social institutions, which has different it as totally results, shows Nagorno-Karabakh 22 21 arrests and detentions from human rights abuses, politically motivated suffer also society civil the of Members Russia. for embezzling public assets and the aidfrom civil society, in turn, blamed the government blockade imposed by Moldova and Ukraine, the though the government blamed the economic paying the salariesandpensionsin2016, and government found itself incapable of fully it was alreadymentioned, the Transnistrian As functions. basic its fulfill to and goods and which is alsofailing to provide key services ethnic GeorgianslivinginGaliregion. only through political processes, but also by the implemented, thepoliticalvoiceisformednot type of positive changes and amendments are any effectively how matter no unchangeable: . world/2016/nagorno-karabakh March 16,2018, https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom- Freedom inthe accessed World 2016:Nagorno-Karabakh, transnistria. 2018, Freedom inthe World 2016: Transnistria, accessed March 16, The same holds true for Transnistria, But attheendofdayonething is https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2016/ 21 . On the other hand, 22 . largely conditioned by the absence ofvoting peoples and vulnerable minority groups, are and the systematic expulsion of indigenous violation of children’s rights, gender inequalities the continuous disregard of fundamental rights, including the states, fragile In post-conflict entities. post-conflict in especially groups, capabilities ofvulnerableandmarginalized special concern is the issue of mobilization of accountability areofteneroded.Amatter the possibilities for politicalvoiceandsocial violence, and conflicts by fragmented is society the activityofanycivilsocietyorganizations. activities, and the authorities do not restrain with an important role in state and civil In policies. government’s Nagorno-Karabakh, the civil society is ascribed the on influence from abroad and are able to execute a certain NGOs in Abkhazia get their funding mostly frequent reporting. However,functioning constraining themtomoredetailedand especially theoneswithforeignfunding – the oversightcapacityoverNGOactivity, agents’ law of 2012, and deliberately increased made in 2014 is verysimilartoRussia’s‘foreign other way round). NGO legislation amendment government influence (whereas it should be the funding mainly fromRussiaandaresubjectto few NGOs operating in South Ossetia receive their projects- even meetings and visits. The they need the approval of authorities for all are facing increasing challenges each year: Transnistria, the activities of IOs and NGOs restriction policies against NGOs in place. In South Ossetia, for example have put harsh and society. ThegovernmentsofTransnistria of any formal/ institutional basis forthe civil the governmenthasyethindered the creation different issues. However, the suppression from these entitiesconstantlyraisetheirvoiceabout Ossetia or Transnistria, but the societies of institutionalised ‘civil society’ in Abkhazia, South - civilsociety.Itisyetearlytotalkaboutan mobilization possibilities of society, especially Yet anotherimportantpoint:wherethe EUCACIS Online Paper No. 11 - Non-Recognized States, Security Threats and Post-Conflict ‘stateness‘: The Quartet of Post-Soviet Space 11 Another feature of non-recognized states non-recognized feature of Another referring to the sources of security When is their high level of military potential – mainly – potential military of level high their is have that these states the fact by conditioned of armed multiple phases often through gone conflict with their ‘mother’ states. potential may become the the existing military Of course, sovereignty state ensuring of primary means cases the security, in particular in national and of international bodies of of major failures administration and their efforts of maintaining current the of context the in especially peace, are there attacks. However, terroristic of rise the ratio of military forces some states, where still this large, but rather is size population to of problems does not guarantee the absence countries. associated with ‘stateness’ in these mainly recognized, some hand, other the On strength, European, states lack military states do whereas some non-recognized of recognized a number not. For instance, in states (e.g. Switzerland) the existence are size, their especially armed forces, and of the vital factors for ‘stateness’ as the no indeed mechanisms, use other countries successfully security and bodies particularly supranational question the observing While guarantees. that the from another angle, it can be stated, military potential, which does not get specific economic support by states taking into account that non-recognized the state, (especially even able to in the majority of cases are not can become ensure their state budgets), fully fragile and quickly lose its significance, as the requires also expensive armamentis of process unceasing equipment upgrade. post-Soviet states of non-recognized of issues into two divide them space, we can distinctly groups: inner and outer threats. The inner in are witnessed threats security sources of Transnistria. Ossetia and South Abkhazia, the states share non-recognized three All laundering problems with contraband, money (especially in Transnistria), of functioning and and weaponry drugs of trafficking, sale territory. Yet their on criminal organizations Transnistria is about fact interesting another . 23 Security troublesome most The field: Joel S. Migdal, State in Society:Joel S. Migdal, State and States How Studying (Cambridge: One Another, and Constitute Transform Societies 2001). Press, University Cambridge 23 rights and legal channels for participation legal channels rights and In Abkhazia and South Ossetia the ethnic South Ossetia and In Abkhazia region from the excluded being Georgians, totally fact, in are, come back, to unable and Abkhazia In process. political the from excluded ethnic minorities (Armenians, Russians, the in under-represented Georgians) are and People’s Assembly. states are mainly issues of non-recognized referring to the field of security. The absence and international of or underdevelopment over the non- local control mechanisms fragile fact that the as as well entity, recognized post-conflict states are likely own their authority over some regions within to have limited territory, becomes a truthfully of illegal for the emergence and development prolific basis process of groups and activities. Usually, the later ‘stateness’ are more the and state-building population capital, whereas the the in visible has a limited and typically of the peripheries insufficient interaction with are result, informal or regional authorities state. the As a management more actively participating in the not only the of these regions. In such context, state-building traditional model of ‘top-down’ the threat and governance is put at risk, but also same time, the At increasing. is non-stability of the existence that even it’s worth mentioning, administration of international control and stability. for guaranty a yet not is mechanisms Even the UN, OSCE, EU and NATO efforts were the at located Kosovo, stopping in sufficient not democracy, of cradle the – Europe of centre illegal like activities illicit of cradle a from being more even is This trafficking. drugs, trade, arms only not is problem the because troublesome the disability, but first and foremost the non- of formal authorities to address the willingness issues, as they may themselves have a share in illicit activities and/or special agreements with the groups managing such kind of activities. 12 EUCACIS Online Paper No. 11 - Non-Recognized States, Security Threats and Post-Conflict ‘stateness‘: The Quartet of Post-Soviet Space post-conflict consequences to even more torments, but also putting regional andinternational security atrisk. regional putting also but more torments, to even consequences post-conflict from suffering already and regions those in living people condemning - states non-recognized the unchangeable is the fact, that both inner and outer threats arenot only jeopardizing the security of 26 25 24 to be fuelled by the constant denials of Transnistrian authorities to undertake full investigations shipped to theBalkansandusedduring the warinYugoslavia.Theseconcernswereandcontinue illegal saleofweaponryfromTransnistria,including claims thatthisweaponry was evenillegally there are growing concerns over illegal sales, as there have been multiple cases of registered and ammunition left by the Soviet14th Army. About 20.000 tons areyet toberemoved,however, that it has a truly explosive ‘inheritance’ from Soviet era, particularly 40.000 tons of weaponry NK forcesandHALO Trust continue to clear security threat: the tension along the cease-fire line and the daily increasing threat ofwar threat increasing the daily and line cease-fire resumption the along tension the threat: security The HALO Trust, accessed March 21,2018,https://www.halotrust.org/minefreenk/. nagorno-karabakh-azerbaijan/244-nagorno-karabakhs-gathering-war-clouds Nagorno-Karabakh’s Gathering War Clouds, accessed March 21,2018,https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/ . inheritance-from-the-soviet-era/a-18886862 Transnistria’s explosive inheritance from theSoviet era, accessed March 21,2018, http://www.dw.com/en/transnistrias-explosive- On the other hand, Nagorno-Karabakh is an example for a state suffering from an outside from suffering state a for example an is Nagorno-Karabakh hand, other the On 25 . When it comestoinner threats, theonly one isthe presenceofland mines, which 26 . Allinall,when talking aboutthreats,whatstays . 24 . EUCACIS Online Paper No. 11 - Non-Recognized States, Security Threats and Post-Conflict ‘stateness‘: The Quartet of Post-Soviet Space 13 2 2 3 3 5 2 3 2 0 4 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 2 2 2 1 2 9 8 16 14 47 of failure / Transnistria /under the threat - 2 1 0 2 5 2 3 1 0 2 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 4 2 6 13 25 ure / /under the threat of fail South Ossetia 2 1 0 2 5 2 3 1 0 2 0 1 0 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 3 4 7 7 13 31 failure / threat of Abkhazia /under the 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 1 4 3 4 3 3 1 3 0 1 3 4 4 4 2 3 25 16 24 18 83 Nagorno Karabakh sustainability/ /middle level of - - - - - Absence of illicit activities (drugs, ille gal arms, trafficking) Absence of external threats Border and customs control Absence of secessionist tendencies, civil wars, units having territorial claims, ille gal armed units, not self-determination conflicts and domestic armed conflicts Absence of foreign military bases and peacekeeping missions Minimal social conditions and protec tion of rights of refugees and IDPs Environmental protection Quality of public services Accessibility and quality of health care and mandatory medical insurance Literacy rate and quality of education Income / Expenses GDP %/ Import / Net exports /GDP % / External debt / GDP Efficient income distribution / Gini co efficient / Economic freedom Effectivemechanisms against corrup tion per capita/ USD/ GDP Political stability Governance effectiveness of law Constitutionality and rule The right to vote Quality and Agencies Efficiency of Security Employment indicator State legitimacy GDP annual growth rate GDP Table 1: The assessment of non-recognized states of post-Soviet space by ‘Peace Index’ of post-Soviet space states assessment of non-recognized Table 1: The TOTAL GRADE TOTAL sustainable – 100-125, middle level of sustainability – 75-100, fragile – 50-75, – 25-50, of failure the threat under failed – 0-25. Security Index /30/ Social Index /30/ Economic Index /35/ Political Index /30/ Political Index 14 EUCACIS Online Paper No. 11 - Non-Recognized States, Security Threats and Post-Conflict ‘stateness‘: The Quartet of Post-Soviet Space Conclusion/Policy Recommendation (in these cases an interim one) is enjoying all the is getting the desired, whereas the government see aprobleminthissituation:factthelatter governments, nor the ‘patron’ state especially easily amendable problem, as neither the local these countries. Nevertheless, this is not an progress in improving the ‘stateness’ levelof visible any be won’t there fixed, is situation this Unless fields. ‘stateness’ the of any amend to created, which makesitpracticallyimpossible entity. Thismeansthataviciouscircleisbeing but rather seekstoensureitscontroloverthe ensuring welfare, stability, security, and the like when that ‘patron’stateisnotveryinterestedin to a‘patron’ state atthe same time.Especially particular stateistransferring state functions help a stateovercomeanyissues,while that hit this ‘wall’, i.e. it is practically impossible to a result,any assistance mission is bound to passed ontotheir‘patron’stateRussia.As security processes,which are gradually being control over political, economic, social and over theirown statehood, particularlythe problem is the steady decrease of control In Abkhazia andSouth Ossetia, thecentral South Ossetia, andverysimilarinTransnistria. which isthesameinAbkhazia and these states, disclosure of the central problem in each of and comprehensive study allows for the deep However, spectacular. indeed is effects the number of problems and all theirside- hard todistinguish the centralproblem,as South Ossetia and Transnistria, it is rather ended infragilityclosetothatofafailedstate. Timor, where the UN’s demand of ‘universality’ particular case.A vivid example for this is East approach should be developed for each development, stability, and so forth, a unique to auniversalmodelofgood governance, compelling non-recognized stated toadhere other problemsintheseentities.Insteadof which is thefactualstartingpoint of allthe problem in each non-recognized state, When studying entities likeAbkhazia, significant most the detect to vital is It solutions to itseconomicproblems.This also in seeking new economic opportunities and EU, which is aclearindicatorthatitinterested exports toRussiaand increased exportstothe showed an evident enthusiasm: itlessened its noted, that Transnistria caught the wave and to theEU.Forsakeofjustice,itshould be exports tariff-free enjoying started Moldova, of Agreement, as being Transnistria, de-jure part been solvedaftertheEU-MoldovaAssociation of extremeeconomicfragility could have bemore to than eager to address the issue. This situation officials its compelling – burden challenge for it to continue withstanding that economic problems is so high, that it is a real non-control status, thenumberandweightof against seizing theopportunitiesgrantedby local government in Transnistria is not at all problem of economic fragility. Although the connected to theafore-mentioned central arose due to illicit activities, which are directly extreme decline,and security problems all issues aroundsocialwelfare,particularlyits one factiscomingtothesurface:political field, each within problems the behind reasons continuously deepen. When analysing the around which all the other issues emerge and extreme economic fragility – this is the axis and moreimportantly–acivilsociety. developing human rights,socialdevelopment, could beachangetowardsestablishing and that if assisted by other external actors, there Russia. Thisongoing criticism isasign of hope boycotted the devolving of broaderpowerto entities have themselves more than once It isnoteworthythatthesocietiesofthese and indeveloping a functioning civil society. issues like human rights, social development, – supporting the societies of these entities in employment of a bottom-up assistance policy yet theonly obtainable solution could be the So them. to beneficial so is which set-up, this neither partyhasatrueinterestin changing their illicit activities and embezzlement. Hence with the‘patron’state’spermissivenessof privileges ofanon-controlled statuscoupled For Transnistriathe central issue is its EUCACIS Online Paper No. 11 - Non-Recognized States, Security Threats and Post-Conflict ‘stateness‘: The Quartet of Post-Soviet Space 15 both sides of the conflict, whiledoing other state from restraining any time also at same the the a change of Simultaneously, the same. be initiated, format should Group OSCE Minsk rationality of format of three particularly the have turn their in which countries, co-chair policies and and colliding deliberately divergent interests. And finally for Nagorno-Karabakhthe shows that it would be more inclined towards inclined be more it would shows that the However, if it had the chance. the EU, fact it as in a chance’, had it part is ‘if hardest of collapse because economic faced again Russia’s decline of aid (due portrays once which economic problems), to Russia’s own cooperation, especially the again that the of point starting the be should one, economic assistance. was already mentioned, the As it through visible towards the EU - inclination using the very first chancewith ‘ties’ long-term of despite actor’ favourite of ‘changing the ‘more and new the for basis good a is – Russia actor sustainability’ compassionate towards social values, democratic establishing help to starting with welfare and foster security by helping the entity economically. ‘hot’, not central problem is the war: not ‘frozen, the whole across everyday tension with full but wounded are being where soldiers borderline, civilians sometimes even and dead or shot kept being is situation This sides. from both alive by the continuous and immense financial input from the conflicting parties on each side of the conflict. Sogood results in political is enlisting entity, which Nagorno-Karabakh is an and social fields, even phenomenal for a non- state, however the constant threat recognized of resumption of a large-scale armed conflict but the development, just hinder not would collapse any success in any field. At the same also faces economic issues, time the entity which, despite the overcome the problem, have slim chances government’s efforts to for need continual improvement, as the of upgrade extensive armament, equipment and all the other of share a immense too are taking security expenses in the assistance state’s ‘patron’ the and state budget field of the sustainability, of achievement the So fund. improvement of already registered good results problems is only of the existing prevailing and possible after solving this central issue. A good Group Minsk OSCE the be could point starting co-chair addressing the problem of country’s weaponry to sale of more and more dreadful