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NEXI 12 May 2020.Pdf NEXI Company report Hold (unchanged) 13 May 2020 – 5:30 PM MARKET PRICE: EUR13.95 TARGET PRICE: EUR15.0 (from EUR14.80) Financial Tech. - Payments Solid quarter, good visibility on 2020 Data Shares Outstanding (m): 627.8 Despite 1Q20 preliminary figures were already disclosed (16 April), Nexi managed to surprise by reporting slightly stronger revenues and EBITDA. However, the focus was Market Cap. (EURm): 8,757 on trading conditions update and, eventually, a 2020 guidance. Management Enterprise Value (EURm): 11,008 indicated signs of stabilization in April (value of acquiring and issuing transactions - 33.0% Y/Y and -43.4% Y/Y respectively) vs. what disclosed with the preliminary Free Float (%): 46.6% results (that mentioned a -45/50% in volumes at the beginning of April). Av. Daily Trad. Vol. (000): 2,014 Furthermore, value of acquiring and issuing transactions at -25% Y/Y in the last week rolling (May 2nd – 8th) showed very early signals of possible initial recovery across Main Shareholder: Mercury UK (50.2%) categories. While this was not enough to give a 2020 guidance, management announced a EUR100 million cash costs containment plan to mitigate EBITDA and Reuters/Bloomberg: NEXI.MI NEXI IM cash flow impact. All in all, we are fine tuning down our estimates (-1.1% on 52-Week Range (EUR) 8.0 16.9 2020/22 EPS) and stick with our Hold rating, mostly for valuation reasons: the stock trades in line with peers (although we acknowledge a discount to Worldline) showing Source: FactSet, UBI Banca estimates similar or worse fundamentals (in terms of cash metrics) balanced by M&A appeal Performance (SIA discussions still on-going) and growth prospects of the Italian market. TP fine- tuned to EUR15.0 on peers re-rating. 1m 3m 12m Absolute 7.5% -0.8% +65.3% > 1Q20 in more details: Top line posted a -0.5% YoY driven by a combination Rel. to FTSE IT 9.2% 29.0% +84.2% of low single-digit volume decline, high single-digit decline in average value per Source: FactSet transaction and a significant increase in take-rates. The cost base declined 4.8% YoY thanks to the fact that 38% of it is variable (linked to volumes of Graph area Absolute/Relative 12 M transaction and level of activities on POS, ATMs, etc.) so EBITDA grew 3.9% YoY. The company generated EUR50 million cash in 1Q20. > Transaction volumes -35% in March, -48% in April, -35% last week rolling. 52% of Nexi revenues are installed-base driven. The remaining 48% are split almost evenly by basic consumption (growing during the crisis), discretionary consumptions (hit by the crisis) and high-impacted consumptions (collapsed). While there are signs of stabilization, we expect transaction volumes still negative in July/August (-7%) and then back to growth from September (at a 10% rate). Adding the Intesa division, we get to a revenue’s growth of 5.7% this year. The risk on our estimates, we believe, is tilted towards the downside as consumption recovery may be slower and depends also on the speed of exit from the lockdown in Italy. Source: FactSet > Cost cutting should mitigate volumes decline. No significant credit Massimo Vecchio risk. The reduction EUR100 million in cash costs is to be split by capex or Senior Analyst Opex depending on the transaction volume trend. We assumed it to be [email protected] two/third on capex, also to protect the cash flow given the leverage (3.7x our Tel. +39 02 62753016 FY2020 estimate). We learnt that there is a strong protection mechanism on Dario Fasani the business to be acquired from Intesa (i.e. there is a compensation on the Analyst EBITDA which in fact, pro-forma, would have grown 6.3% YoY). Management [email protected] Tel. +39 02 62753014 reinforced the concept of a very low credit risk with provisions of around EUR7/8 million in 2019 which, at worst could double this year. www.ubibanca.com/equity-research Financials Ratios priced on 11 May 2020 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E Revenues (EURm) 984 1040 1136 1224 P/E (x) 44.2 43.6 34.7 27.3 EBITDA (EURm) 503 590 675 766 P/CF (x) 35.1 33.6 26.6 23.7 EBITDA margin (%) 51.1% 56.7% 59.4% 62.6% P/BV (x) 4.5 5.7 4.9 4.2 EBIT (EURm) 382 440 500 586 Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% EPS (EUR) 0.22 0.32 0.40 0.51 EV/EBITDA (x) 14.8 18.7 15.9 13.5 CFPS (EUR) 0.27 0.42 0.52 0.59 Debt/Equity (x) 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.8 DPS (EUR) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Debt/EBITDA (x) 2.9 3.8 2.9 2.1 Source: Company data, UBI Banca estimates Source: Company data, UBI Banca estimates 1 NEXI 13 May 2020 Key Financials (EURm) 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E Revenues 984 1040 1136 1224 EBITDA 503 590 675 766 EBIT 382 440 500 586 NOPAT 302 344 405 474 Free Cash Flow 170 261 329 370 Net Capital Employed 2795 3775 3729 3700 Shareholders' Equity 1325 1526 1778 2099 Net Financial Position 1471 2250 1951 1601 Source: Company data, UBI Banca estimates Key Profitability Drivers 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 2.9 3.8 2.9 2.1 Net Debt/Equity (x) 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.8 Interest Coverage (%) 3.1 8.5 10.5 12.6 Free Cash Flow Yield (%) 2.8% 3.0% 3.8% 4.2% ROE (%) 10.2% 13.2% 14.2% 15.3% ROI (%) 13.6% 11.6% 13.4% 15.8% ROCE (%) 9.1% 7.8% 9.0% 10.6% Source: Company data, UBI Banca estimates Key Valuation Ratios 2019A* 2020E 2021E 2022E P/E (x) 44.2 43.6 34.7 27.3 P/BV (x) 4.5 5.7 4.9 4.2 P/CF (x) 35.1 33.6 26.6 23.7 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% EV/Sales (x) 7.6 10.6 9.4 8.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 14.8 18.7 15.9 13.5 EV/EBIT (x) 19.5 25.0 21.4 17.7 EV/CE (x) 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.8 Source: Company data, UBI Banca estimates * Based on 2019 average price Key Value Drivers 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E Payout 0% 0% 15% 20% NWC/Sales -5.2% -6.2% -7.0% -7.7% Capex/Sales 17.1% 14.1% 12.8% 10.6% Source: Company data, UBI Banca estimates 2 NEXI 13 May 2020 Recent developments > 4Q19: financials in line with last year in a tough environment. Preliminary results were published on 16 April so only a minor surprise in NEXI’s 1Q20 set of figures, but a nice YoY comparison given the current scenario: a) Revenues of EUR225.3 million or -0.5% YoY – UBI est. EUR221.0 million - Consensus EUR233 million; b) Adj EBITDA of EUR115 million or +3.9% YoY - UBI est. EUR113.0 million - Consensus EUR118 million; c) A Net Financial position of EUR1,420 million - UBI est. EUR1,405 million - Consensus EUR1,441 million. During Q1 20, Nexi managed over 1bn issuing and acquiring transactions in Jan-Feb (up 13.2% Y/Y) with value of managed transactions of EUR 72.5bn (+5.4% Y/Y), while in March, given the implementation of the lockdown measures nationwide, managed transactions decreased 31% Y/Y to 338m with a value down 33% Y/Y to EUR 24.9bn. > 52% of the revenues are non-volume driven. In detailing how the business model behaved during the crisis management mentioned that half of the total 2019 Revenues are linked to the installed base (n. of POS terminals, n. of merchants, n. of managed cards, n. of ATMs, etc.) - and therefore not directly impacted by the short term volumes’ dynamics – while and 38% of variable costs related to volumes and activities. MSS is the division where the volume-driven share of revenues is higher (64%) while DBS is where it is the lowest (only 9%, in fact that division posted a YoY growth in revenues). CDS sits in the middle with a 41% share of volume driven revenues). Figure 1 – Nexi 1Q20 results (EURm) 1Q19A 1Q20A YoY chg. 1Q20E A/E change Consensus Merchant Serv. & Solutions 106.1 105 -0.9% 102 3.4% Cards & Digital Payments 93.0 93 -0.4% 93 -0.2% Digital Banking Solutions 27.4 28 0.7% 27 4.1% Net Revenues 226.5 225.3 -0.5% 221.0 1.9% 233.0 EBITDA 110.6 114.9 3.9% 113.0 1.7% 118.0 EBITDA margin % 48.8% 51.0% 51.1% 50.6% Net Debt/(Cash) 2,185 1,419 -35.1% 1,405 1.0% 1,441 Source: Company data, UBI Banca estimates, FactSet 3 NEXI 13 May 2020 Financial Projections > Our assumptions on COVID-19. Since we developed a scenario to assess the COVID-19 impact there was a major advancement in terms of therapy (drugs) to treat the disease: Gilead’s drug should mark the first approval this week from the FDA. Aside from that, the other assumptions are still valid: a) A vaccine for the mass population would not be ready before fall 2021 but it should be ready for healthcare operators in fall 2020; b) Serology testing is probably the faster and easier way to stabilize the economy by allowing immune people to avoid the lockdown; c) Very likely the virus would re-emerge in the fall so, social distancing is here to stay for a while.
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