Storm Surge Forecast Increases to 9 to 14 Feet Above Ground Level for Coastal Sections of Southeast Texas and Southwest Lousiana

10:00 PM CDT Tuesday, August 25, 2020 Prepared by: Roger Erickson, NWS Lake Charles What has changed: Storm surge forecast increases to 9 to 14 feet above ground level for coastal sections of southeast Texas and southwest Lousiana. Next Briefing: Wednesday, August 26th, at 10:00 AM CDT

NWSLakeCharles www.weather.gov/LakeCharles Key Points Lake Charles Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ▪ Hurricane Laura is expected to rapidly intensify (+30 mph) over the next 24 hours. The landfall projection shows southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning as a category three hurricane.

▪ The storm surge forecast is 9 to 14 feet above ground level for coastal areas. A storm surge warning is now in effect. Catastrophic and life threatening flooding is expected – not just at the coast but as far inland as the I-10 corridor of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana.

▪ Hurricane warnings are in effect for all of southeast Texas and most of southwest Louisiana. Expect widespread power outages, trees downed, homes and businesses damaged.

▪ Rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with locally 15 inches will cause flooded roads. This rainfall will have a hard time draining due to the storm surge. Water rescues will likely be required if people are on the road and stay in the area.

8/25/2020 10:16 PM www.weather.gov/LakeCharles Watch/Warnings in effect Lake Charles Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ▪ Hurricane Warning ▪ Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton, Orange, Tyler ▪ Acadia,Allen, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, Evangeline, Jeff Davis, Rapides, Vermilion, Vernon

▪ Tropical Storm Warning ▪ Avoyelles, Iberia, Lafayette, St. Landry, St. Martin, St. Mary

▪ Storm Surge Warning ▪ Hardin, Jefferson, Orange ▪ Acadia, Calcasieu, Cameron, Iberia, Jeff Davis, St. Mary ,Vermilion

▪ Flash Flood Watch ▪ Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton, Orange, Tyler ▪ Acadia, Allen, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, Evangeline, Jeff Davis, Rapides, Vermilion, Vernon

8/25/2020 10:16 PM www.weather.gov/LakeCharles Situation Overview Lake Charles Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

• Laura is in a favorable region for strengthening right now.

• Major weather impacts are expected in our region late Wednesday into Thursday.

NOTE: Do not focus on the exact track. Impacts can occur well outside the area enclosed by the cone.

8/25/2020 10:16 PM www.weather.gov/LakeCharles Wind Threat / Potential Impact Lake Charles Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

There is a potential for: ▪ Hurricane force winds for most of our region(red) ▪ Widespread power outages ▪ Numerous trees blown down ▪ Damage to homes and businesses

8/25/2020 10:16 PM www.weather.gov/LakeCharles Extreme Wind Warning Lake Charles Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

The Extreme Wind Warning is used by the NWS to describe the location of the eyewall of landfalling category 3 or stronger hurricanes.

If people are in this warning During Hurricane Rita in they need to stay indoors, away 2005, an extreme wind warning was in effect for from windows, and treat it the Beaumont to Lake like you would a tornado Charles area, due to the warning. large eyewall.

8/25/2020 10:16 PM www.weather.gov/LakeCharles Tropical Storm/Hurricane Probabilities Lake Charles Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Tropical Storm force winds will start Wednesday afternoon near the coast, and extend inland during the night. Tropical Storm force winds will last 12 to 20 hours.

8/25/2020 10:16 PM www.weather.gov/LakeCharles Wind Timing Lake Charles Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Expected Duration of Wind Speeds

Location Tropical Storm Force Winds Hurricane Force Winds

Start Wednesday afternoon Start early Thursday morning Southeast Texas End Thursday afternoon End Thursday midday (Hardin, Jefferson, Orange) 16-20 hours 4-8 hours Start early Thursday morning Start Thursday morning East Texas End Thursday evening End Thursday afternoon (Tyler, Jasper, Newton) 12-16 hours 2-4 hours Southwest Louisiana Start Wednesday afternoon Start early Thursday morning (Allen, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, End Thursday afternoon End Thursday midday Jeff Davis) 16-20 hours 4-8 hours South Central Louisiana Start Wednesday afternoon Intermittent hurricane force gusts (Acadia, Evangeline, Iberia, Lafayette, St. End Thursday afternoon Thursday morning Landry, St. Martin, St. Mary, Vermilion 16-20 hours Start early Thursday morning Start Thursday morning Central Louisiana End Thursday evening End Thursday afternoon (Vernon, Rapides, Avoyelles) 6-12 hours 2-4 hours

8/25/2020 10:16 PM www.weather.gov/LakeCharles Storm Surge Watch/Warning Lake Charles Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

▪ Watch/Warning in effect for

▪ Possibility/danger of life- threatening inundation from storm surge somewhere in the specified area within 36/48 hours (change for watch or warning).

Storm Surge warnings are issued when we believe the water could be 3 feet deep or more for your location. 8/25/2020 10:16 PM www.weather.gov/LakeCharles Storm Surge Timing- Wed 1 pm-7 pm Lake Charles Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

8/25/2020 10:16 PM www.weather.gov/LakeCharles Storm Surge Timing- Wed 7 pm-Thu 1 am Lake Charles Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

8/25/2020 10:16 PM www.weather.gov/LakeCharles Storm Surge Timing- Thu 1 am-7 am Lake Charles Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

8/25/2020 10:16 PM www.weather.gov/LakeCharles Storm Surge Timing- Thu 7 am-1 pm Lake Charles Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

8/25/2020 10:16 PM www.weather.gov/LakeCharles Storm Surge Timing- Thu 1 pm-7 pm Lake Charles Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

8/25/2020 10:16 PM www.weather.gov/LakeCharles Storm Surge-southeast Texas Lake Charles Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

8/25/2020 10:16 PM www.weather.gov/LakeCharles Storm Surge-southwest Louisiana Lake Charles Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

8/25/2020 10:16 PM www.weather.gov/LakeCharles Storm Surge-south central Louisiana Lake Charles Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

8/25/2020 10:16 PM www.weather.gov/LakeCharles Rainfall Forecast Lake Charles Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Five to ten inches of rain is possible near and to the right of where Laura makes landfall.

Locally higher amounts of 15 inches are possible.

The timing of this heavy rain is starting Wednesday and continuing into Thursday.

8/25/2020 10:16 PM www.weather.gov/LakeCharles Risk of Flash Flooding Lake Charles Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Significant flooding of roads and property is a risk in the red zone on this map.

Expect to see some water rescues being necessary in these areas.

Storm surge flooding will exasperate the flooding from the rain.

8/25/2020 10:16 PM www.weather.gov/LakeCharles Tornado Forecast Lake Charles Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

As rain bands start to approach the coast, isolated tornadoes will be possible, starting on Wednesday, and extending into Thursday.

8/25/2020 10:16 PM www.weather.gov/LakeCharles Potential Weather Impacts Lake Charles Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

• Winds: Tropical Storm force winds start Wednesday and could last 12-20 hours into Thursday. Hurricane force winds will start early Thursday and end Thursday afternoon and could last 4-8 hours. Expect widespread power outages, trees downed, and homes and businesses damaged. • Storm Surge: At the coast, water will be 9 to 13 feet above ground level. Storm surge will back up rivers and bayous and flood over 30 miles inland. Catastrophic and life threatening flooding is expected. • Rainfall: 5 to 10 inches with locally 15 inches of rain is expected starting Wednesday into Thursday. This rainfall will have a hard time draining due to the storm surge. This will result in flooded roads and water rescues will be necessary if people are on the road or stay in vulnerable locations. • Tornadoes: Tornadoes will be possible in the eyewall as the hurricane approaches the coast, as well as outer rain bands starting Wednesday into Thursday.

8/25/2020 10:16 PM www.weather.gov/LakeCharles Key Take-Aways Lake Charles Hurricane Laura WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Major, catastrophic damage is possible across southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana due to storm surge, hurricane force winds, heavy rainfall, and tornadoes.

8/25/2020 10:16 PM www.weather.gov/LakeCharles The Next Briefing: Wednesday 10:00 AM CDT

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For the latest graphics and information go to: www.hurricanes.gov or www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=lch

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