4.6 Eden Case Study Eden Case Study: Risk and Vulnerability to Extreme Weather Events

Introduction and Background The Eden District along ’s southern coast is one of the most important natural areas and increasingly, economic hubs of the country. Also known as the ‘’ this area1 features an incredible diversity of natural and urban landscapes comprising major cities and towns, indigenous forests and wetlands of international importance, over 67,400 ha of coastal and inland protected areas, 1214 wetlands and 370 km of coastline. In addition to this, Eden is also well known for the remarkable economic and urban growth that it has experienced over the past two decades. A very good example of this can be seen in George, where the growth of urban areas increased by 600% between 1985 and 2004i.

Figure 1. Population pressure due to urban growth and development in Eden. Population pressure is a measure of growth or decline, in-migration and density in a given area (Source:CSIR)

1 Eden District Municipality is comprised of the following eight Local Municipalities: Kannaland, Oudtshoorn, Eden District Municipal Area, Hessequa, Mosselbay, George, and Bitou Risk and Vulnerability in Eden Due to a high incidence of extreme events such as droughts, forest fires and storms over the past several years, Eden has also recently been identified as being particularly vulnerable to these hazards. Here, repeated and high intensity storms and flooding from cut-off low weather events have resulted in costly damages to households, businesses and government at all levels. In a recent study for instance, a single cut off low event2 in 2007 was noted to result in damages of over R707 million to municipal assets, provincial roads, housing, agriculture and the infrastructure and assets of major parastatals and provincial agencies in the areaii . This same study found that over the period 2003-2008, Eden incurred over R350 million in damages, or over 70% of the provincial total in direct damage costs due to cut-off low events.

The impact of these events can be most severe among the poor and economically vulnerable residents in the district. Despite its wealth in other areas, Eden district has the highest poverty index rating (19.31) in the , which has increased by 19% since 1996, indicating higher numbers of unemployed, those living in informal or traditional dwellings, or in a single room. At 23.90 %(EM IDP) Eden also has the highest unemployment rate in the province, more than double the provincial average of 11%. As such, there is widespread general vulnerability in Eden among dependent communities (see Figure 2), who are at high risk of displacement, personal or property loss or injury during extreme events due to their limited ability to draw on financial reserves, limited mobility, access to information and other factors.

Figure 2. Socio-economically vulnerable communities per mesozone, as illustrated by the vulnerability index. The vulnerability index is a composite of two main measures: a) numbers of employed persons relative to economically active individuals in a particular proximity region and b) proportion of population living below the minimum living level (Source:CSIR)

2 A ‘cut-off’ low is a mid-latitude cyclone that is severed from the main planetary circulation and spins off independently, often moving and dissipating slowly. These events are associated with very strong atmospheric instability and powerful updrafts. They are one of the main drivers of severe weather (such as extreme winds, and torrential rainfall) and floods in South Africa.

The Case Study In 2010, support was provided by the South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas to project partners the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, the University of and Santam Insurance to investigate changing landscape conditions, extreme weather events and their associated risks and vulnerabilities in Eden district. In Eden, Santam has also proven vulnerable to risk, given their exposure through domestic insurance policyholders along the coast, whose natural hazard claims have amounted to approximately R60 million since 1996iii.

The aim of this case study was to develop an evidence-based understanding of how global change is impacting Eden and the potential responses, including by the insurance industry, to reduce global change risks and improve the resilience of the areas. Pursuant to this, the study focused on the past and future impacts of sea storm, floods and veld fire in the area. In each of these cases, important areas of exposure were identified and mapped and modelled against historical records and plausible future scenarios to assess the role of critical human and environmental factors of change (such as increases in population and extreme rainfall, among others) and determine their impact on the likelihood of these events.

Results The results of the study, detailed in Nel et al. 2011aiv and Nel et al. 2011bv, highlighted the following: 1. Climatic changes are expected to increase risk across all three hazards. In particular: a. the number of intense rainfall days by 10% overall, or 36% during winter months b. the fire danger index by approximately 41% for the period of 2020-2050 c. the occurrence of extreme wave run-up events is expected to increase by six- fold by 2100. 2. The impacts of historical changes in land-cover change to Eden are as significant as expected future climate-related changes. This was indicated by: a. The increase in alien invasive trees as a strong predictor of wildfires in the region, explaining up to 37% of the change in fire occurrence b. An equal change in surface water flows due to landcover change compared against future increases in extreme rainfall events c. Large forest fires and clear-felling in commercial plantations can reduce the return period of an extreme flow event by up to 40% d. The destruction of coastal foredunes and hardening of surfaces was one of the most significant drivers of coastal risk. 3. Interactions between individual drivers of risk reduce the ability to predict fine-scale changes in a complex system such as Eden. a. The predictive power of models is limited in cases where multiple drivers and risks interact (e.g. the combination of intense rainfall on a recently burnt landscape).

Risk Responses The findings of this case study are consistent with previous research in the Garden Route and a recently completed Environmental Management Framework vi, which emphasises the impacts of unplanned and uncontrolled urban sprawl in the area and the role of the natural environment in providing a buffer against these risks. Planning and management activities by local authorities and others can therefore play a major role in reducing risk and increasing the resilience in the area. This will not only be critical to the land and property owners in Eden, but also to those who are largely dependent on their municipalities during the incidence of extreme events. To this end, Santam is currently developing a partnership with local authorities and other stakeholders in Eden and elsewhere to identify ways of addressing shared interests and shared risks, including through for instance, control of the spread of alien invasive species (Figures 3 and 4). Research is also continuing to further understand and detail the nature of risks and effectiveness of different responses in the area.

Figures 3 and 4. Current and future fire probabilities for two different response scenarios in Eden (Source:Nel et al. 2011aiv, pg. 5.17).

It should be noted however that a number of other actors and managers in Eden have already begun to take steps in the right direction. For instance, the Eden Disaster Management Centre has an established Disaster Management Plan which guides its functions and outlines key risks and hazards for the district and each local municipality. As part of this, it has also created management and joint-operating committees which proactively plan, monitor and mobilise in the case of extreme events, including through improved early warning systems and communication directly to community representatives. From a local municipal perspective, the planning department of George Municipality has established new storm water guidelines to ensure that the natural flow of water in developed areas is not disturbed and has established levies for new water hook-ups to reduce the pressure on existing water infrastructure. Outside of local government, SANParks has undertaken to revise the management plans of key aquatic areas in the region which play a key role in water flows and the Western has mobilised a group of volunteer fire-fighters to augment the capacity of the municipal emergency services in rural and forested areas. In sum, this case study demonstrates not only the vulnerabilities and hazards which have been identified as part of a local risk and vulnerability assessment exercise in Eden, but also the role of understanding and identifying key drivers and responses in managing for these risks.

i Holloway, A., Fortune, G. with Chasi, V. 2010. RADAR (Risk and Development Annual Review). PeriPeri Publications, p. 17/ 101 ii Holloway, A., Fortune, G. with Chasi, V. 2010. RADAR (Risk and Development Annual Review). PeriPeri Publications, p. 88- 91/101 iii Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, 2007. The Garden Route Environmental Management Framework. iv Nel, J., Le Maitre, D., Forsyth, G., Theron, A. and Archibald, S. 2011. Understanding the implications of global change for the insurance industry: The Eden Case Study. Final Report for Component 1: Understanding the Risk Landscape. CSIR Report No: CSIR/NRE/ECOS/2011/0063/B. v Nel, D., Nel, J., Reyers, B., le Maitre, D., Forsyth, G., Theron, A., Archibald, S., Engelbrecht, F., van Niekerk, L., Faccer, K., Shearing, C., Herbstein, T., Froestad, J., Otto-Mentz, V., de Meyer, H., Lee, E., Kau, D., Bacani, B., Fishcer, Alverson, K., Zahedi, K. Insurance in a Changing Risk Landscape: Local Lessons from the Southern Cape of South Africa. CSIR, UCT, WWF, UNEP FI. UNEP job no DTI/1478/GE. 2011.