City of Guelph Employment Lands Strategy Phase 1, July 28, 2008

CITY OF GUELPH

EMPLOYMENT LANDS STRATEGY PHASE 1

JULY 29, 2008

CONTENTS

Page

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (i)

1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background 1-1 1.2 Report Structure – Phase 1 Analysis 1-2

2. APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY 2.1 Employment Forecast Methodology 2-1 2.2 Employment Land Needs Forecast Approach 2-3

3. POLICY CONTEXT 3.1 Provincial Policy Context 3-1 3.2 City of Guelph Official Plan 3-4 3.3 City of Guelph Local Growth Management Study 3-5 3.4 Policy Context – Observations 3-9

4. HISTORICAL PROFILE OF THE CITY OF GUELPH AND SURROUNDING EMPLOYMENT MARKET AREA 4.1 Introduction 4-1 4.2 Historic Economic Trends for the City of Guelph within the Context of the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) 4-1 4.3 City of Guelph Profile of Occupied Employment Lands 4-8 4.4 Observations – Economic and Employment Profile 4-19

5. CITY OF GUELPH EMPLOYMENT LANDS SUPPLY 5.1 Vacant Employment Lands 5-1 5.2 Observations – Employment Land Supply 5-13

6. CITY OF GUELPH FORECAST EMPLOYMENT GROWTH WITHIN A REGIONAL AND LOCAL CONTEXT 6.1 Introduction 6-1 6.2 The Evolving Trends of Employment Growth within the GGH 6-1 6.3 Drivers of Future Employment Growth in Guelph 6-4 6.4 Forecast Employment Growth for the City of Guelph by Sector 6-5 6.5 Comparison of Guelph Employment Forecast to P2G 6-8 6.6 Observations – City of Guelph Forecast Employment Growth 6-11

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CONTENTS

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7. CITY OF GUELPH EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS, 2006-2031 7.1 Introduction 7-1 7.2 Employment on Employment Lands 7-1 7.3 Employment Land Needs within the City of Guelph, 2006-2031 7-9 7.4 Observations – Employment Land Needs within the City of Guelph, 2006-2031 7-11

8. CONCLUSIONS 8-1

APPENDICES

A CITY OF GUELPH EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR, 1981-2001 NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMIT ANALYSIS, CITY OF GUELPH AND SURROUNDING MARKET AREA A-1

B PERMITTED USES ON “INDUSTRIAL” AND “CORPORATE BUSINESS PARK” LANDS B-1

C CITY OF GUELPH SITE-BY-SITE EMPLOYMENT LAND SUPPLY INVENTORY C-1

D GTA EMPLOYMENT LAND VACANCY ANALYSIS D-1

E LIST OF NON-INDUSTRIAL USES PERMITTED ON DESIGNATED INDUSTRIAL AND CORPORATE BUSINESS PARKS E-1

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. (W&A) in association with Monteith Brown Planning Consultants (MBPC) and Totten Sims Hubicki (TSH) was retained by the City of Guelph in the fall of 2006 to prepare an Employment Lands Strategy (ELS).

The purpose of developing an ELS is to create a long-term vision and plan for future employment lands within the City in keeping with the Provincial Growth Plan (Places to Grow) for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH). This Strategy also supports the Strategic Plan and Economic Development objectives of the City to ensure that Guelph is competitive with respect to future business retention and attraction in the community. Further, the Strategy is also intended to define the City of Guelph’s future role in the development of employment lands and to explore the potential implications of the transition of employment land development from the public sector to the private development sector. The ELS will also be coordinated with the ongoing City of Guelph Local Growth Management Strategy (LGMS). The LGMS will develop a strategy for the long term sustainable growth of the City that values public opinion and addresses the priorities of the Provincial Growth Plan (Places to Grow).

The Guelph Employment Lands Strategy is to be developed in two separate but complementary phases, as follows:

Phase 1 – Needs and Opportunity Analysis – identify future employment land needs based on existing vacant and developable employment land supply and forecast demand. The findings of Phase 1 are provided herein.

Phase 2 – Employment Land Strategy – provide a detailed strategy that will outline a policy framework and implementation program to provide for an adequate supply of employment lands for Guelph to 2031, including an infrastructure capacity and financing strategy. This phase of the study will also examine the roles of the public and private sectors in employment land development. The results of the Phase 2 analysis are anticipated to be completed no later than by the end of 2008.

The following provides a summary of the long-term need for employment lands within the City of Guelph based on our review of existing employment land supply vs. forecast demand.

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Employment Land Supply

• The City of Guelph has a total long-term employment land supply of approximately 648 net ha (1,600 net acres). However, the availability of market-ready serviced industrial land (i.e. for sale/lease) within the City of Guelph is very limited, especially for larger sites;

• Based on short-term demand, the City has just over a three years’ supply of serviced and available employment lands (approximately 64 net ha or 158 net acres of municipally and privately owned lands);1

• The City of Guelph has currently exhausted its supply of municipally-owned, serviced employment land; and

• To ensure that the City’s employment lands supply levels are not constrained, it is recommended that the City provide a minimum designated and serviced supply of at least five years at all times (i.e. approximately 100 ha or 247 acres).

Long-Term Employment Growth Outlook for the City of Guelph

• While Guelph’s share of employment growth within the GGH 2 market area has historically been relatively minimal, there are several factors which suggest that Guelph and the surrounding area will begin to take on a larger regional role, including:

i. diminishing employment lands supply within mature urban areas of the GTAH; ii. Centralized location and access; iii. Hwy 401 access to the GTAH and southern Ontario employment market; iv. access to GTAH infrastructure (i.e. Pearson Airport) and labour force; and v. competitive industrial land prices;

1 Given the time that has passed since the City’s employment land supply was last updated, it is foreseeable that the supply of serviced employment land may be less than calculated. 2 The area comprises the municipalities which make up the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTAH), as well as the surrounding Regions/Counties within Central Ontario, known as the “Outer Ring,” which extend from Haldimand County in the southwest to Simcoe County in the north, to Peterborough County in the northeast. Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx

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• In absolute terms, forecast annual employment growth in Guelph is projected to average approximately 1,296 employees per year – which represents a slight increase in comparison to absolute employment growth from 1981 to 2001; and

• Forecast employment growth within the City of Guelph is anticipated to be weighted towards the industrial sector; however, commercial and institutional development will also play a key role in providing a range of future employment opportunities within the City.

Demand for Employment on Employment Lands

• Over the 2006 to 2031 planning period, the City of Guelph is forecast to add a total of 15,900 employees on employment lands (of which 1,600 will be accommodated through intensification);

• Existing trends within the GTAH and GGH “Outer Ring” municipalities indicate that overall employment density has been, and will continue to be, heavily influenced by an increasing percentage of land-extensive employment within the distribution and warehousing sector, which will tend to stabilize or even reduce long-term density levels on employment lands;

• Over the 2006 to 2031 forecast period density levels on employment lands are forecast to average approximately 35 employees per net ha (14 employees/net acre);

• The City of Guelph is forecast to absorb an annual average of 16 net ha per year (60 net acres/year) from 2006 to 2031;

• Average annual absorption rates are forecast to diminish over the forecast period, largely a result of a declining employment growth rate (due to the aging of the labour force and increased product output). Figure ES-1 summarizes forecast absorption on employment lands from 2006 to 2031 in comparison to recent historical trends.

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FIGURE ES-1 CITY OF GUELPH HISTORICAL AND FORECAST ABSORPTION ON EMPLOYMENT LANDS, 1996-2031 (NET HECTARES) 35 30 29 23 25 21 21 21 21 21 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 18 17 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 15 11 11 10 8 Net Hectares 5 -

Year Historical Industrial Absorption Forecast Employment Lands Absorption Historical Ave. Absorption (1996-2005)

Future Employment Land Needs

• In accordance with the existing net developable supply of vacant employment lands, the City has an adequate amount of designated employment lands to accommodate future demands on employment lands to 2031;

• By 2031 a surplus of 238 net ha (588 net acres) has been identified in accordance with the employment growth forecast and land needs analysis in Chapters 6 and 7 of this report;

• Notwithstanding the above findings, the short term supply of serviced and marketable employment land within the City is very limited. Phase 2 of the ELS will further explore a number of issues related to density/land utilization, Official Plan policy, servicing, financing, phasing and marketing, to ensure that Guelph’s employment lands are developed in a manner which is consistent with the long term vision of the City and its local residents and businesses.

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1. INTRODUCTION

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1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

The Guelph Employment Lands Strategy is to be developed in two separate but complementary phases, as follows:

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1.2 Report Structure – Phase 1 Analysis

The Phase 1 report is organized into the following Chapters:

Executive Summary 1. Introduction 2. Approach and Methodology 3. Policy Context 4. Historical Profile of the City of Guelph and the Surrounding Market Area 5. City of Guelph Employment Lands Supply Analysis 6. City of Guelph Forecast Employment Growth within a Regional and Local Context 7. City of Guelph Employment Land Needs, 2006-2031 8. Conclusions

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2. APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY

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2. APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY

2.1 Employment Forecast Methodology

In regard to forecasting employment demand, there are two generally-accepted approaches, as follows:

Activity Rate Method – This method forecasts employment based upon the proportion of jobs to population. The employment forecast is then related to land needs by either considering employment per hectare/acre assumptions or by forecasting corresponding building space and relating that to land needs based on land coverage assumptions. This approach also gives considerable attention to the percentage of employment by sector (i.e. industrial, commercial, institutional) on employment lands.

Land Absorption Method – involves studying the way in which the local and regional market has functioned historically by ascertaining the quantity of land consumed. Consideration is also often given to the nature of the uses involved, land utilization and employment density. Forecast employment lands absorption is then established based on a comprehensive review of potential short- and long-term demand for employment lands employment by type and associated density.

For the purpose of this analysis, both approaches have been employed for the City of Guelph due to the fundamentally different market factors which drive employment lands employment growth (i.e. industrial), in comparison to population-related employment (i.e. retail, schools, service commercial, institutional). Population-related employment is automatically attracted to locations convenient to local residents. Generally, as the population grows the demand for population-related employment also increases to service the needs of the local community. Forecast commercial and institutional activity rates have been based on historical activity rate and employment trends, as well as future commercial and institutional employment prospects for Guelph within a local and regional context. Similar to population-related employment, home- based employment is also anticipated to increase in direct proportion to population growth.1

1 Due to further advancements in telecommunications technology, it is anticipated that the City’s home- based employment activity rates may increase over the forecast period. Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx

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Employment levels within the primary sector (i.e. agricultural) are anticipated to decline slightly over the forecast period.

Industrial employment, on the other hand, is not closely linked to local population growth and tends to be more influenced by broader market conditions (i.e. regional economic competitiveness, transportation access, distance to employment markets), as well as local site characteristics, such as servicing, highway access and exposure, site size/configuration, physical conditions and site location. As a result, industrial employment is not necessarily anticipated to increase in direct proportion to population growth. For this reason, forecast industrial employment is not driven solely by employment activity rate trends and has been based on the following key economic indicators:

• historical industrial employment growth for the City of Guelph in comparison with the surrounding municipalities of Wellington County, the west GTA and the Kitchener- Waterloo-Cambridge regional market area (1991-2006);

• historical industrial land absorption from 1996 to 2005;

• a review of available supply of employment lands within the more mature areas of the west GTA employment market;

• discussions with local realtors and industrial developers located within the City of Guelph;

• discussions with the City of Guelph staff regarding future employment lands development prospects; and

• Consideration of the recent employment forecasts for the City of Guelph and Wellington County prepared under Schedule 3 of the Places to Grow (P2G) growth plan.1

1 Note: Places to Grow employment forecast for the City of Guelph is not provided post 2011. Post 2011 employment figures include both Wellington County and the City of Guelph combined. Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx

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2.2 Employment Land Needs Forecast Approach

The most current Provincially-accepted approach to forecasting employment and land needs was developed in the last decade to reflect the broader types of employment in industrial areas. In 1995, as part of a Planning Act review, the Province published a document entitled “Projection Methodology Guideline: A Guide to Projecting Population, Housing Need, Employment and Related Land Requirements” to be used in forecasting population and employment for planning purposes. The employment categories set out in that document will be employed as the basis for this forecast, as follows:

• Employment Lands Employment – “jobs that have traditionally been called ‘industrial’ and are found in specifically designated industrial or business parks.” This would include a portion of office commercial employment.

• Population-Related Employment – jobs that provide direct services to meet the personal needs of the population, located in commercial and office areas, in residential areas (i.e. local plazas, schools), and increasingly, in industrial areas (dependent, in part, on zoning provisions). Population-related employment is further sub-divided into commercial and institutional employment.

• Primary and Home-Based Employment – agriculture and resource-based employment, and home workers, neither of which impact on industrial/commercial area land needs.

Anticipated employment land needs requirements are then identified based on consideration of the following:

• Existing and forecast density assumptions (i.e. employees/net hectare or acre) for employment lands employment;

• Historical and forecast employment lands employment absorption by employment type (i.e. heavy vs. general vs. prestige and sector (i.e. manufacturing, warehousing and distribution, office commercial, etc.);

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• The amount of long-term net employment land currently designated for employment uses but currently not developed (vacant) within the City of Guelph by Employment Area; and

• The amount of short-term readily available (i.e. for sale/for lease) serviced employment land.

Figure 2-1 graphically illustrates this approach.

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FIGURE 2-1

CITY OF GUELPH SCHEMATIC APPROACH TO FORECASTING LONG TERM NEED FOR EMPLOYMENT LANDS

PROVINCIAL AND LOCAL PLANNING AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT POLICY/PLANS

EMPLOYMENT DEMAND - 2005 PROVINCIAL POLICY LOCAL AND REGIONAL - ACTIVITY RATE ANALYSIS STATEMENT (PPS) GROSS EMPLOYMENT LAND HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT - EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TRENDS & COMPARATIVE SUPPLY - PLACES TO GROW ANALYSIS ANALYSIS BY SECTOR GROWTH PLAN - SHARE ANALYSIS - CITY OF GUELPH OP - CITY OF GUELPH ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLANS/ STRATEGIES

DEMAND FOR ANALYSIS OF EXISTING NET VACANT AVAILABLE VACANT DEVELOPABLE EMPLOYMENT LANDS EMPLOYMENT LANDS, I.E. EMPLOYMENT LAND UNDERUTILIZED, PROFILE OF EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT SUPPLY (INCLUDING CONSTRAINED, NET TO GROSS LANDS HISTORICAL ACTIVITY & IDENTIFIED (RATIOS, ETC.) FUTURE PROSPECTS DEMAND FOR INTENSIFICATION POPULATION-RELATED MARKET AVAILABLE VS. LONG- POTENTIAL) EMPLOYMENT TERM SUPPLY LAND VACANCY PROVISION

ATTRIBUTES OF EMPLOYMENT ON EMPLOYMENT LANDS (I.E. PHASING OF NET VACANT FORECAST DEMAND FOR TIMING OF SERVICING DENSITY, PERCENTAGE EMPLOYMENT LAND ALLOCATION BY SECTOR) EMPLOYMENT LANDS SUPPLY SERVICING CAPACITY MARKET CHOICE PROVISION

SURPLUS/SHORTFALL OF EMPLOYMENT LANDS 2006 TO 2031

RECOMMENDED LOCATION OPTIONS

(TO BE DETERMINED IN PHASE 2)

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3. POLICY CONTEXT

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3. POLICY CONTEXT

3.1 Provincial Policy Context

3.1.1 Provincial Policy Statement

As of March 1, 2005, a new Provincial Policy Statement (PPS) was issued under Section 3 of the Planning Act. The following highlights the key sections of the 2005 PPS as related to growth forecasting:

“All planning authorities will make provision to accommodate an appropriate range and mix of industrial, commercial, institutional, employment, recreational, residential and open space uses to meet long-term needs” (Section 1.2.3).

Land requirements and land use patterns will be based on:

(a) The provision of sufficient land – through intensification and redevelopment and, if necessary and justified, designated growth areas – to promote employment opportunities and for an appropriate range and mix of housing to accommodate growth projected for a time horizon up to 20 years. (Section 1.1.2, underlining added)

(b) However, where an alternative time period has been established for specific areas of the Province as a result of a provincial planning exercise or a provincial plan approved by the Lieutenant Governor in Council, that time frame may be used for upper, single and lower-tier municipalities within the area. (Section 1.2.3)

With respect to employment lands, Section 1.3 of the 2005 PPS identifies:

“1. Planning authorities shall promote economic development and competitiveness by: (a) providing for an appropriate mix and range of employment (including industrial, commercial and institutional uses) to meet long-term needs; (b) providing opportunities for a diversified economic base, including maintaining a range and choice of suitable sites for employment uses which support a wide range of economic activities and ancillary uses, and take into account the needs of existing and future businesses; (c) planning for, protecting and preserving employment areas for current and future uses; an (d) ensuring the necessary infrastructure is provided to support current and projected needs.”

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3.1.2 Places to Grow Act, 2005 (Bill 136)

The Places to Grow Act, 2005, received royal assent on June 13, 2005. The Act enables the Province to develop a growth plan for a geographic area with Ontario (i.e. where and how to grow). In June 2006, the Province released the final growth plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH), entitled “Places to Grow: Better Choices, Brighter Future” (the Plan or P2G). The Plan provides a Provincial vision for managing growth in the area until 2031 by identifying priority urban centres, encouraging more compact urban development, and by protecting green lands, natural systems and agricultural lands.

One of the Plan’s general goals is to create complete communities by increasing density and protecting employment lands. The Plan strives to protect employment land by allowing a conversion of employment land only after a municipal comprehensive review demonstrates the goals in the Plan have been met. It is important to note that in the Plan major retail uses are considered non-employment land uses. In order to achieve compact communities, the Plan identifies that by 2015 a minimum of 40% of all new residential development within each upper- and single-tier must be in the form of intensification before further expansion areas are approved. Section 1.1.2(a) of the Provincial Policy Statement also identifies intensification areas as a component of long-term employment land needs. The Plan also identifies a density target of 50 jobs and residents per hectare (20 jobs and residents per acre) for all designated greenfield areas. The Plan provides specific direction with respect to how the density targets will be calculated for these areas.

Section 2.2.7 of the Plan states:

“(2) The designated greenfield area of each upper- or single-tier municipality will be planned to achieve a minimum density target that is not less than 50 residents and jobs combined per hectare. (3) This density target will be measured over the entire designated greenfield area of each upper- or single-tier municipality, excluding the following features when the features are both identified in any applicable official plan or provincial plan and where the applicable provincial plan or policy statement prohibits development in the features: wetlands, coastal wetlands, woodlands, valley lands, areas of natural and scientific interest, habitat of endangered species and threatened species, wildlife habitat, and fish habitat. The area of the features will be defined in accordance with the applicable provincial plan or policy statement that prohibits development in the features.”

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It is important to note that densities for employment lands employment, which are largely comprised of industrial employment uses, will generally have a much lower density than commercial office, population-related employment (i.e. retail, institutional, etc.) and residential uses. As such, existing greenfield lands or potential employment expansion areas, which are largely oriented to employment lands employment, will likely not achieve the P2G density target on an individual basis. Total density on greenfield lands is to be assessed on an upper or single tier municipality basis as directed by the Plan. This report does not encompass a full assessment of all designated greenfield employment areas in Wellington County; however, it is our opinion that the overall density of 50 jobs and residents per hectare (20 jobs/persons per acre) will be difficult to achieve for non-residential growth over the long term. Phase 2 of this study will explore potential mechanisms which would assist the City in moving closer toward this Provincial density target.

3.1.3 Bill 51, an Act to Amend the Planning Act

Bill 51, which received Royal Assent on October 19, 2006, is intended to provide clarity and certainty in the planning appeals process and ensure municipalities more clearly state their planning rules. The Bill restricts the right of an appeal for an application that would remove lands from an area of employment. As well, the Bill requires that an Official Plan that contains policies dealing with the removal of areas of employment be revised to ensure all policies are consistent with Bill 51.

3.1.4 Greenbelt Protection Act, 2005 (Bill 57)

The Greenbelt Protection Act received Royal Assent on February 24, 2005. The Greenbelt Plan identifies an additional 1 million acres of land as “Protected Country Side,” in addition to the 800,000 acres currently identified as Oak Ridges Moraine and Niagara Escarpment lands. This has placed considerable development pressure for remaining greenfield lands which are potentially developable both within the GTAH and throughout the GGH “Outer Ring”.1

1 The Province defines the “Outer Ring” as the area within the GGH or Central Ontario which is outside of the GTAH. See Map 4-1 for further details. Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx

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3.2 City of Guelph Official Plan

The City of Guelph Official Plan (OP) was consolidated November, 2006. Majors Goals (Section 2.3) specifically related to the employment growth and employment lands development are as follows:

• 7. Implement an economic development strategy that encourages steady, diversified and balanced economic growth while maintaining a favourable assessment base and a wide range of employment opportunities.

• 8. Promote opportunities for employment in the emerging high-tech "knowledge based" sectors including environmental management and technology, and agrifood technology.

• 14. Develop an appropriate framework to facilitate the full range of commercial uses consistent with the needs of the City’s population and employment base and supportive of the City’s transportation objectives.

• 15. Maintain and strengthen the role of the Central Business District (Downtown) as a major focal area for investment, employment and residential uses. The Central Business District (Downtown) will be a vibrant multiple function district and community focus of the City for commercial, recreational, entertainment, institutional, cultural and public service uses.

The City of Guelph’s OP section 3.2 developed a Community Form Statement which states:

“Industrially, development will continue to emphasize diversification, thus strengthening Guelph's self-sufficiency and adding to the variety of rewarding employment opportunities.”

The South Guelph Secondary Plan Area urban form statement in Section 3.6.31 states:

“The South Guelph Secondary Plan applies to the various lands in the south part of the City which were annexed in 1993 and sets out the long term land use aspirations for the area. The basis for the annexation was the acquisition of land for economic and employment growth opportunities for the next 20 years.

The area contains significant natural areas encompassing four different watersheds: the Hanlon Creek, Mill Creek, Torrance Creek, and Blue Springs/Eramosa watersheds. The ecological resources of this area will be maintained due to the importance of these features within the community. Resourceful and sensitive stewardship will be encouraged while accommodating urban growth.

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The City will continue to ensure controlled quality growth and will continue to emphasize the need for healthy and diversified economic and employment growth.”

The OP specifically calls out the importance of the Central Business District and its employment in section 7.3:

“The Central Business District (Downtown) of the City is promoted by this Plan as a beautiful, vibrant multiple-functional urban centre for Guelph that is a focal area for investment, employment and housing. The Plan promotes the C.B.D. as the community's civic, cultural, social and economic centre with a high concentration of activities and land uses developed in concert with excellent quality design standards.”

The Plan also highlights the trends towards Knowledge-based employment in their Corporate Business Park Objectives in section 7.9.1:

“The 'Corporate Business Park' land use designation on Schedule 1 is intended to provide areas where employment opportunities can be provided in the new ‘knowledge-based technology’ field.”

Other policies speak to maximizing accessibility of employment areas by residential areas utilizing Bikeways and Transit to connect the City’s elements such as Mixed Use nodes.

3.3 City of Guelph Local Growth Management Study

The City of Guelph is in the process of developing a Local Growth Management Study (LGMS) to plan for its future growth. To date, three reports by Meridian Planning Consultants Inc. have been released. As well, staff has submitted reports to City Council with growth strategy recommendations. These reports help develop the framework and the strategy, they include:

• “Context”, September 2006 • “Shaping Our Choices”, September 2007 • “Strategic Directions”, December 2007 • Council Report - Guelph’s Local Growth Management Strategy Recommendations in Response to the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Report # 08-14), April 11, 2008

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• Council Report -Addendum Report - Guelph’s Local Growth Management Strategy Recommendations, (report 04-83), June 23, 2008

In September 2006, Phase 1 of a Local Growth Management Study report was completed entitled “Context”. This report provides a framework regarding how growth management decisions should be considered. This Study is part of a series of steps to develop and refine the preferred growth option for the City. The Study touches on many factors influencing growth. The following are a few excerpts that pertain to employment growth:

“These [The Growth Plan] projections are significantly higher than the current estimates. The LGMS will determine the ability of the City to accommodate the forecast growth and the most appropriate form and locations for the growth.” Page 4

“Guelph has maintained a strong diversified economy over the last decade, with high levels of employment in the Manufacturing/Wholesale/Construction and Retail/Service Sectors. Guelph's annual local employment growth of 2.4% has outpaced the average Provincial employment growth of 2.3% Linamar is the largest employer with approximately 8,000 employees.” Page 9

“At the south end of the City, a commercial corridor was established along Stone Road. The area today is a major employment centre and includes the Stone Road Mall which provides the only regional shopping centre in the City.

The major concentrations of employment in Guelph are in the north-west, southwest, and eastern parts of the City. The University and Stone Road area immediately to the west also serve as a major employment area. There are 62,000 jobs in the City of Guelph as of the 2001 Census.” Page 10

“Guelph has consistently had faster employment growth than both the Province of Ontario and Canada as a whole. Annual employment growth in Guelph averaged 2.4% over the past ten years, compared to Ontario’s 2.3% and Canada’s 2.0%.

Guelph has a well diversified economy, with strong employment in most sectors. The employment base has been stable within each major employment sector over the 1991-2001 period. The City has a higher proportion of employment than the Province as a whole in the manufacturing and government sectors. Approximately 27,000 jobs are located in the major business park areas with an additional 9,000 employees in the downtown and 12,000 in the Stone Road, University of Guelph area.

… four factors that will contribute strongly to the growth in Waterloo-Guelph:

• strong net in-migration and a youthful population; • excellent educational institutions provide a competitive advantage; • the area’s industrial mix positions it for growth; and,

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• a generally positive economic outlook for the US and Canada bodes well for the area, which is highly integrated into the North American economy.”

“The Growth Plan is to be used as a basis for planning according to the implementing Provincial legislation. Assuming the current residential and current employment densities, if the City wished to grow to the Growth Plan levels it may require in the range of 1,000 hectares of additional land to accommodate the higher growth level (30,000 persons, at 50 persons per hectare would require 600 hectares together with approximately 300 – 400 hectares of land for employment uses). This amount of new Greenfield land could be reduced by as much as 40% if the City was able to meet the Provincial intensification targets. One of the primary purposes of the LGMS is to examine the implications of the Growth Plan growth levels and determine the feasibility, cost and means of managing the growth.” Page 25

“Shaping Our Choices”, September 2007, provides an update on the LGMS, a review of the GuelphQuest public consultation process and an evaluation of the parameters of the Provincial Growth Plan. The report includes discussion on employment forecast and employment lands, the following are some excerpts regarding employment from this report:

“Improving the employment ratio is important to Guelph; the Strategic Plan in objective 3.3 has a goal of obtaining “The highest ratio of any southern Ontario city of people who live and work in the same community”. The Strategic Plan also encourages local employment in objective 3.1 by striving for “Thriving and sustainable local employment opportunities”. Providing a range of employment opportunities is essential to the achievement of this objective and to the maintenance of a balanced tax assessment ratio.” Page 11

“Overall it is calculated that there is just enough Greenfield employment land to provide jobs to meet the lower end of the range (22,275) but not enough land to provide for 29,250 office and industrial jobs.” Page 12

“The first priority in shaping the alternatives for the future is to provide sufficient employment lands to meet the employment levels targeted by the Growth Plan to 2031.” Page 19

“The business park areas in Guelph are currently developed at densities in the 30 to 35 employees per gross hectare range which is well below the Growth Plan required/target density.” Page 20

“Given the risks in not achieving a population/employment balance, the potential for additional employment lands should be assessed. If higher population and employment levels are targeted then choices about new locations for employment lands will be required and may involve lands outside the current City boundaries.” Page 21

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"Strategic Directions”, December 2007, assists in the formulation of a growth strategy for the City of Guelph. This report poses questions and alternatives and then presents the preferred direction. The following are key excerpts from the report:

“DIRECTION #1 - Guelph should plan for a 2031 population of 175,000 and an employment level of 100,000. This represents an annual growth rate of 1.7% and a total population increase of 60,000 persons from the 2006 population of 115,000.” Page 15

“DIRECTION #2 - With a population of 175,000 an employment level of 100,000 is required to maintain a balanced and complete community. Achieving this level of employment would require an expansion of the City’s boundaries in the middle part of the planning period. At the 195,000 population level the shortage of land will be commensurately greater and reached sooner.” Page 18

“DIRECTION #9 - Land beyond the current boundaries will be needed in the medium to long term to maintain a balance of population and employment at either the 175,000 or 195,000 population level.” Page 23

“DIRECTION #10 –The City’s infrastructure systems must be designed and built to correspond to new population/employment targets for the City. At this point in time it is unclear whether adequate capacity exists to meet the 175,000 to 195,000 population thresholds. A comprehensive understanding of the long- term capacity of hard infrastructure to accommodate growth will be completed in the near future. Based on current knowledge, both water supply and wastewater treatment facilities may impose capacity limitations beyond the 165,000 population level. Making commitments to levels of growth beyond 165,000 people (with associated jobs) should not be made without an understanding of the feasibility, costs and sources of funding.” Page 29

In April 2008, staff prepared a Council report, “Guelph’s Local Growth Management Strategy Recommendations in Response to the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe”, recommends a population of 165,000 (including population undercount) and an employment growth of 30,000 jobs.

In June 2008, an addendum report, “Guelph’s Local Growth Management Strategy Recommendations”, recommends a population of 169,000 (175,000 with a population undercount) and approximately 31,000 new jobs.

Based on the LGMS direction and discussions with staff, this report has planned for a population forecast to 2031 of 169,000 (not including a population undercount) and employment forecast to 100,390, an increase of 32,400 jobs.

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3.4 Policy Context – Observations

In order to create a healthy economy within a community, residential and employment land needs have to be balanced. In recent years, the Province has strengthened planning policy to preserve employment land in the face of conversion pressures. Recent legislation such as Places to Grow and Bill 51 ensure the protection of employment land for employment generating purposes. The City of Guelph’s OP highlights the need for balanced residential and employment growth in order to remain self-sufficient in terms of jobs and labour force. Both the Official Plan and the Growth Management Study identify the strong employment base and growth within the City of Guelph.

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4. HISTORICAL PROFILE OF THE CITY OF GUELPH AND SURROUNDING EMPLOYMENT MARKET AREA

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4. HISTORICAL PROFILE OF THE CITY OF GUELPH AND SURROUNDING EMPLOYMENT MARKET AREA

4.1 Introduction

Chapter 4 provides an historical profile of employment growth for the City of Guelph and the surrounding market area from 1981 to 2001.1,2 The information provided within this Chapter has been largely based on Census data, site visits and surveys conducted by W&A, as well as data provided by the City of Guelph.

4.2 Historic Economic Trends for the City of Guelph within the Context of the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH)

4.2.1 Historical Employment Growth Trends, 1981-2001

Table 4-1 summarizes historical employment growth for the City of Guelph and Wellington County within the GGH context. Key observations include:

• From 1981-2001 Guelph’s employment base increased by 25,300 (2.4% annually), which is well above the employment growth rate for both the composite GGH Outer Ring and GTAH; and

• Guelph’s share of total GGH employment has gradually increased over the 1981-2001 period.

1 2006 employment estimates have also been calculated for the City of Guelph. 2 Surrounding market area has been defined by W&A as adjacent municipalities to the east and west of Guelph. Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx

4-2 TABLE 4-1 HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH FOR THETABLE GR 4-1EATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE (GGH), 1981-2001 HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH FOR THE GREATER GOLDEN HORSESHOE (GGH), 2001-2031

1981-2001 % 1981-2001 Share of 1981-2001 Share of Annual Share of 1981 Employment Employment Employment Employment Area 1981 1991 2001 Employment 2001 Growth Growth Growth Rate City of Guelph 40,900 53,400 66,200 1.4% 1.7% 25,300 2.8% 2.4% Wellington County (Including Guelph) 1 62,400 80,500 97,700 2.1% 2.6% 35,300 4.0% 2.3% Total GGH Outer Ring 674,050 795,600 868,000 23.0% 22.7% 193,950 21.8% 1.3%

GTAH 2,254,200 2,762,500 2,950,000 77.0% 77.3% 695,800 78.2% 1.4% Total GGH 2,928,250 3,558,100 3,818,000 100.0% 100.0% 889,750 100.0% 1.3% Source: 1981, 1991 and 2001 Census. Includes employees with "No Fixed Place of Work". 1. Due to data limitations 1981 and 1991 Employment for Wellington County (Including Guelph) has been derived by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Table 4-2 summarizes recent employment trends between 1996 and 2001 for the City of Guelph, North Wellington County and South Wellington County. The results of this analysis identify that within Wellington County (including Guelph), recent employment growth has been strongest in Guelph and the municipalities within south Wellington County (Erin, Guelph/Eramosa, Centre Wellington, Puslinch).

TABLE 4-2 WELLINGTON COUNTY HISTORIC EMPLOYMENT GROWTH 1996-2001

1996-2001 Annual Growth 1996 2001 Rate North Wellington 10,925 10,895 -0.1% South Wellington 14,400 16,715 3.0% City of Guelph 53,090 62,315 3.3% 1 Wellington County 78,415 89,925 2.8% Source: Statistics Canada Census 1.For the purpose of this analysis Wellington County includes the City of Guelph South Wellington includes Erin, Guelph/Eramosa, Centre Wellington and Puslinch North Wellington includes Mapleton, Minto and Wellington North

Table 4-3 summarizes employment growth by major employment sector for the City of Guelph from 1991 to 2001. A detailed profile of Guelph’s existing employment base by sub-sector is provided in Appendix A. Key observations include:

• employment growth in Guelph has been highest in the industrial sector;

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• employment growth within the commercial / population-related sector has also been strong, outpacing the rate of historical population growth; and • Guelph’s institutional sector has generally been stable over the 1991 to 2001 period.

TABLE 4-3 HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY MAJOR EMPLOYMENT SECTOR CITY OF GUELPH 1991-2001 Annual Growth Change 1991 1996 2001 1991-2001 Rate 1991-2001 Population 87,976 95,821 106,170 18,194 1.9% Employment Sector Work at Home / Primary 2,870 2,845 3,410 540 1.7% Industrial 19,010 20,810 25,395 6,385 2.9%

Commercial / Population Related 14,380 16,725 18,540 4,160 2.6% Institutional 14,605 12,710 14,970 365 0.2% Total Employment 50,865 53,090 62,315 11,450 2.1%

EMPLOYMENT ACTIVITY RATE (JOBS PER POPULATION)

Employment Sector 1991 1996 2001 Change 1991-2001

Work at Home / Primary 3.3% 3.0% 3.2% -1.5% Industrial 21.6% 21.7% 23.9% 2.3%

Commercial / Population Related 16.3% 17.5% 17.5% 1.1% Institutional 16.6% 13.3% 14.1% -2.5% Total Employment Activity Rate 57.8% 55.4% 58.7% 0.9% Sources: 1991 to 2001 Census data. Employment Excludes No Fixed Place of Work

4.2.2 Historical Non-Residential Building Permit Activity

Table 4-4 summarizes historical building permit activity for the City of Guelph and the surrounding market area from 1996 to 2005 (see Appendix A for further details). The results of this analysis identify the following:

• Over the 2001-2005 period, total non-residential building permit activity increased by 61% within the City of Guelph, compared to the previous five-year period;

• Total non-residential building permit activity also increased significantly for the Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge area;

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• Non-residential construction levels in West GTA (Halton, Peel) have been strong over the past 10 years and appear to be stable; and

• Approximately 15% of historical industrial building permit activity in Guelph has been associated with additions or expansions to existing buildings.

TABLE 4-4 TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS 1996-2005¹ ($2005 in 000’s) % Change 1996-2000 2001-2005 96-00 to 01-05 City of Guelph 410,900 662,000 61% Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge 1,182,271 2,030,283 72% Hamilton 1,034,790 1,566,472 51% West GTA (Halton, Peel) 7,596,332 8,063,103 6%

INDUSTRIAL BUILDING PERMITS 1996-2005 ($2005 in 000’s) % Change 1996-2000 2001-2005 96-00 to 01-05 City of Guelph 129,600 189,200 46% Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge 332,462 405,832 22% Hamilton 284,084 170,116 -40% West GTA (Halton, Peel) 1,959,250 2,270,474 16%

COMMERCIAL / INSTITUTIONAL BUILDING PERMITS 1996-2005 ($2005 in 000’s) % Change 1996-2000 2001-2005 96-00 to 01-05 City of Guelph 281,300 472,800 68% Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge 849,810 1,624,452 91% Hamilton 750,707 1,396,356 86% West GTA (Halton, Peel) 5,637,082 5,792,629 3%

Note: Based on City of Guelph data approx. 15% of historical building permits are associated with additions or expansions to existing buildings. Due to data limitations, this percentage is believed to be understated. 1. Indexed to 2005 using Southam Construction Cost Index Source: Statistics Canada, Publication, 64-001-XIB. City of Guelph

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4.2.3 Historical Commuting Trends

Table 4-5a summarizes where employed residents within the City of Guelph commute to for employment. Table 4-5b summarizes where employed residents commute from for employment in Guelph. Key observations include:

• The majority of those who leave Guelph for employment elsewhere travel west to Waterloo Region (7%), east to Halton (3%), Peel (4%) and Toronto (3%), as well as within other areas of Wellington County (4%);

• 40% of Guelph’s labour force who leave Guelph for employment elsewhere are employed in the industrial sector; and

• It should be also noted that in 2001 the City of Guelph had 61,280 jobs and a labour force of 56,730, which suggests that the City’s economy is expanding.

As identified in Table 4-6, there are a relatively high percentage of employed residents who live and work within the City of Guelph when compared to other surrounding municipalities throughout the GGH. Based on the 2001 Census, 64% of employed residents live and work within the City of Guelph, which ranks 2nd of the 10 municipalities investigated.

TABLE 4-6 PERCENTAGE OF LIVE/WORK BY SELECTED GGH MUNICIPALITIES1 (2001)

Total Live/Work & Total % of Total Municipality Work at Home Employment Employment Halton Hills 9,670 14,600 66% Guelph 39,935 62,315 64% Kitchener 51,750 81,555 63% Cambridge 33,640 55,900 60% Brampton 68,745 122,280 56% Burlington 36,685 71,010 52% Milton 10,180 20,170 50% Oakville 31,060 68,160 46% Waterloo 24,065 53,435 45% Hamilton 43,380 188,370 23% Source: 2001 Census data by Place of Work. 1. Includes work at home

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx TABLE 4-5a CITY OF GUELPH 1996 AND 2001 LABOUR FORCE WHERE GUELPH EMPLOYED LABOUR FORCE COMMUTE TO FOR EMPLOYMENT

1996 % of 2001 % of % Change in Municipality Total Labour Force Total Guelph Labour Force Total Labour Force Total Guelph Labour Force Labour Force Guelph 33,715 68% 36,780 65% 9% Waterloo Region 3,200 6% 4,110 7% 28% Peel Region 1,655 3% 2,255 4% 36% Toronto 1,160 2% 1,570 3% 35% Halton Region 1,085 2% 1,525 3% 41% Guelph Eramosa 1,000 2% 895 2% -11% Puslinch 330 1% 715 1% 117% Centre Wellington 485 1% 550 1% 13% Hamilton 280 1% 375 1% 34% Erin 105 0% 200 0% 90% Wellington North 75 0% 55 0% -27% Mapleton 20 0% 20 0% 0% Other 925 2% 675 1% -27% Work at Home 2,280 5% 3,155 6% 38% No Fixed Place of Work 3,010 6% 3,850 7% 28% Total Labour Force 49,325 100% 56,730 100% 15% Source: Stats Canada, Places of Work Data, 1996, 2001

Guelph Live Work Trends

Total Live/Work Employment Sector Employment Percent Allocation

Industrial 14,573 40% Commercial 12,288 33% Institutional 9,920 27% Total 36,780 100%

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. Places of Work 2001-emp lands strategy.xls TABLE 4-5b CITY OF GUELPH 1996 AND 2001 EMPLOYMENT WHERE EMPLOYED LABOUR FORCE COMMUTE FROM FOR EMPLOYMENT IN GUELPH

% of % of

Total Guelph Total Guelph 1996 Employment By 2001 Employment By % Change in Municipality Total Employment Place of Residence Total Employment Place of Residence Employment Guelph 33,715 64% 36,780 60% 9% Waterloo Region 6,725 13% 9,540 16% 42% Centre Wellington 2,750 5% 2,935 5% 7% Hamilton 685 1% 1,015 2% 48% Puslinch 960 2% 935 2% -3% Halton Region 685 1% 885 1% 29% Peel Region 525 1% 655 1% 25% Toronto 450 1% 465 1% 3% Erin 235 0% 235 0% 0% Minto 55 0% 190 0% 245% Guelph/Eramosa 1,970 4% 2,465 4% 25% Mapleton 255 0% 300 0% 18% Wellington North 200 0% 275 0% 38% Other 1,605 3% 1,450 2% -10% Work at Home 2,275 4% 3,155 5% 39% Total 53,090 100% 61,280 100% 15% Source: Stats Canada, Places of Work Data, 1996, 2001

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4.3 City of Guelph Profile of Occupied Employment Lands

4.3.1 Employment Lands Defined

Traditionally, the term “employment lands” has been used as an alternative description for “industrial lands” in Official Plans throughout the Province. However, current definitions of employment lands have broadened to include a number of commercial uses (and to a lesser extent institutional uses) in addition to traditional industrial development.

The City of Guelph OP identifies two land use designations which fall under the general category of employment lands (as defined herein), including “Industrial” and “Corporate Business Park”.

All other non-residential lands uses, as defined in the City of Guelph OP, are not categorized as employment lands including:

• Central Business District (Downtown); • Commercial and Mixed Use; • Commercial Mixed Use; • Mixed Office-Residential; • Major Institutional; and • Institutional/Research Park.

Appendix B provides a list of the permitted uses on “Industrial” and “Corporate Business Park” lands as outlined in the City of Guelph Zoning By-Law (1995)-14864.

Generally, commercial uses (i.e. retail) are not permitted within areas designated as “Industrial”. However, Section 7.7.3 of the Guelph OP states:

“Factory sale outlets will be permitted as an accessory use, provided that those items that are substantially manufactured or assembled on site are sold. The sales outlet must be entirely located on the site in which the items for sale are manufactured or assembled.”

It should be noted that a number of commercial and institutional uses (as defined by Statistics Canada) are permitted on lands designated/zoned for industrial and corporate business park Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx

4-9 uses, which fall under the general employment lands category. This issue will be further explored in Chapter 7.

4.3.2 Importance of Employment Lands

All employment can be categorized as being “basic” or “non-basic” in terms of its relationship to the local economy. “Basic” employment is that which primarily involves service to non-local markets. “Non-basic” employment is largely “population-related” and is geared to the local resident and business market. Non-basic employment is dependent upon the existence of such a local market. Employment land is important primarily because of the role that it plays in accommodating “basic” employment growth. Most communities in the Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton (GTAH) accommodate about half of their jobs on employment land.

Growth on employment lands benefits the local and regional economy by:

• Accommodating “basic” industries which anchor the local economy and serve a broad, often international market which in turn brings income into the City and provides the underlying demand for the non-basic population-related services required by basic industry employees and their families;

• Generating a higher percentage of economic spin-off opportunities and employment clusters, referred to as “economic multipliers”, as compared to “non-basic” employment;

• Promoting local and Provincial policy objectives to create “complete” communities which offer a better live-work relationship and help reduce traffic congestion as it reduces dependency on commuting;

• Providing greater diversity in the property assessment base; and

• Generally, offering a greater range of skilled full-time employment opportunities with higher wages and benefits (i.e. family sustaining), as compared to typical “non-basic” employment.

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4.3.3 Annual Absorption on Employment Lands, 1996-2005

Table 4-7 summarizes annual absorption on public and privately-owned employment lands within the City of Guelph from 1996-2005. Throughout this time period employment land absorption levels have been relatively stable at approximately 17 net ha (41 net acres) per year.

TABLE 4-7 CITY OF GUELPH ANNUAL EMPLOYMENT LANDS ABSORPTION, 1996-2005 1

Year Hectares Acres 1996 7.90 19.5 1997 15.05 37.2 1998 28.72 71.0 1999 23.41 57.8 2000 11.27 27.8 2001 11.12 27.5 2002 15.85 39.2 2003 17.73 43.8 2004 17.46 43.1 2005 19.11 47.2 1996-2000 Ave. 17.3 42.7 2000-2005 Ave. 16.3 40.2 1996-2005 Ave. 16.8 41.4

1. Assumes a portion of historical commercial and institutional construction absorbed on employment lands

Source: City of Guelph Economic Development Dept., 2006. In conjunction with Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

4.3.4 Occupied Employment Lands

Table 4-8 summarizes the total net acres of occupied employment lands within the City of Guelph by industrial area/park. As of October, 2006, a total of 698 net ha (1,725 net acres) of employments lands were identified as occupied within the City of Guelph.

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx TABLE 4-8 CITY OF GUELPH OCCUPIED EMPLOYMENT LANDS (AS AT OCOTBER 2006)

Occupied/Built Employment Lands (A) Percent of Total Occupied Employment Employment Area/Park Ha Net Hectares Lands Hanlon Business Park 321 130 19% Hanlon Creek Business Park 0 0 0% North West Guelph Industrial Area 1,077 436 62% South Guelph Industrial Area 86 35 5% York/Watson Industrial Area 3 111 45 6% Urban Reserve Lands 0 0 0% Remaining Employment Lands 130 53 8% Total 1,725 698 100% York Innovation District 0 0 0% Total (w/York Innovation District) 1,725 698 0% Source: City of Guelph Planning Dept. October 2006, confirmed June, 2008.

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Map 4-1 geographically illustrates where the City’s occupied employment lands are located. These employment areas have been categorized into the following industrial areas/parks:

• North West Guelph Industrial Area; • Hanlon Business Park; • South Guelph Industrial Area; • York/Watson Industrial Area; • University Research Park; • Remaining Employment Lands.

The following provides a detailed profile of the existing employment conditions within the City’s industrial areas. A detailed analysis of the City’s vacant employment land inventory is provided in Chapter 5.

North West Guelph Industrial Area

The developed employment lands within the North West Guelph Industrial Area extend from the City’s northwest municipal border to Speedvale Ave. W. to the south and Edinburgh Rd. N to the east. The majority of the City’s developed employment lands are located within the Northwest Guelph Industrial Area, which comprise a total of 436 ha (1,077 acres) or 62% of the City’s occupied supply. Employment lands within the North West Guelph Industrial Area are primarily under private ownership. This area was established in the 1950’s and is largely built out, except for some small scattered infill parcels.

Hanlon Business Park

The Hanlon Business Park is bounded by Hanlon Expressway to the west, the Hanlon Creek Conservation Area to the north and east, and Clair Rd. to the south. A total of 130 net ha (321 net acres) of employment lands have been developed within the Hanlon Business Park or 19% of the City’s occupied supply. All of the employment lands within the Hanlon Business Park are currently under private ownership. This area is also largely built out. Table 4-9 provides a detailed profile of the major employment uses in the Hanlon Business Park1 by site sector.

1 Note: Several employers were not included in this profile due to data limitations. Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx

MAP 4-1 4-13

North West Guelph Industrial Area

York/Watson Industrial University of Area Guelph Research Park York Innovation District

Hanlon Business Park

Hanlon Creek Business Park

South Guelph Urban Reserve Industrial Area Land

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TABLE 4-9 HANLON BUSINESS PARK SURVEY OF MAJOR EMPLOYMENT SECTORS - PHYSICAL AND FISCAL ATTRIBUTES ($2006)

Assessment Allocation Employees/ Employees/ Sq. ft / Building per sq.ft. Employment Sector 1 GFA (Sq. Ft.) of Sq. Ft. Employees Net Acres Net Hectare Net Acre Net Ha employee coverage Assessment ($2006) Manufacturing 1,700,294 71% 2,678 170 69 16 39 635 23% 72,041,715 42 Warehousing & Distribution² 264,820 11% 484 45 18 11 27 547 14% 13,347,918 50 Utilities & Construction 44,000 2% 55 25 10 2 5 800 4% 5,068,208 115 Office 300,732 13% 221 38 15 6 14 1361 18% 14,518,430 48 Retail 10,409 0% 6 1 0 5 13 1735 21% 324,029 31 Other 70,082 3% 176 7 3 24 60 398 22% 2,333,275 33 Total 2,390,337 100% 3,620 287 116 13 31 660 19% 107,633,575 45 1. Represents major employment absorption from 1984 to 2006. 2. Includes transportation, storage and wholesale trade. Source: City of Guelph. Economic Development & Tourism Services. 2007.

Table 4-9 identifies that the majority (71%) of the employment uses found in the Hanlon Business Park industrial area are categorized within the manufacturing sector. Employment within the distribution and warehousing sector accounted for 11% of the total GFA. The remaining 18% of GFA was comprised of a mix of retail, office, utilities and construction and other uses. Employment density was generally found to be highest within the manufacturing sector and lower for all other sectors investigated, except for employment categorized as “other”.

South Guelph Industrial Area

The South Guelph Industrial Area is bounded by the Hanlon Expressway on the east, Gordon Street on the west, Clair Road on the north and Maltby Road on the south. This area was established as part of the lands that were annexed into the City from Puslinch Township in 1993. These lands have been designated industrial, corporate business park and urban reserve in the Guelph OP. Some of these lands located on the southeast corner of Crawley and Clair Roads and fronting the Hanlon Expressway frontage, have been purchased by private sector developers/builders and are actively being developed for industrial use. Development interest and construction activity has been very strong in this area. A major expansion (20,000 sq. m.) is presently underway to the Denso Canada manufacturing facility and 25 acres has recently been sold to the Ontario Government for a major new data centre (+/- 22,000 sq. m. at full build out). Plans have been submitted that would see the construction of four industrial buildings providing over 46,000 sq. m. of new industrial space.

In addition, an application for approval of a new industrial Plan of Subdivision for lands located on the northeast corner of Crawley and Maltby Roads has been submitted to the City of Guelph.

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These privately owned lands total 87.6 gross hectares (216.4 gross acres) and 46 net hectares (113.6 net acres) of developable industrial lands. The developable lands within this Plan of Subdivision are designated “industrial” in the Guelph OP and are to be zoned B.3 Industrial. Lastly, there is potential for a 20 ha (50 acre) parcel to close soon, which could create up to 1 million sq.ft. of warehouse distribution space.

The Ontario Ministry of Transportation has recently placed a development cap of 175,510 sq. m. (1.9 million sq. ft.) of building on the lands located at the southeast corner of Crawley and Clair Roads subject to the completion of interim improvements at the Clair and Laird Road intersections with the Hanlon Expressway. These interim improvements are scheduled to be complete by November 2007. Additional road improvements (extension of Southgate Drive to Maltby Road, Maltby Road improvements and intersection improvements at Maltby Road and d the Hanlon Expressway) will likely be required to provide for the development of the lands located on the northeast corner of Crawley and Maltby Roads. All development caps in this area will be removed upon the completion of a full interchange at Laird Road and the Hanlon Expressway (scheduled for construction start in 2009 with completion in 2011).

York/Watson Industrial Area and York Innovation District

The occupied lands within the York/Watson Industrial Area are bound by York Rd. to the north, the Watson Parkway S. to the west, the Guelph Correctional Centre to the south, and the Guelph Airpark to the east. A total of 45 net ha (111 net acres) of employment lands have been developed within this industrial area. The majority of the existing York/Watson Industrial Area was developed in the mid 1980’s through the mid 1990’s. Table 4-10 provides a detailed profile of the major employment uses in the York/Watson Industrial Area1 by sector.

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TABLE 4-10 YORK-WATSON INDUSTRIAL AREA SURVEY OF MAJOR EMPLOYMENT SECTORS - PHYSICAL AND FISCAL ATTRIBUTES ($2006)

Assessment Allocation Employees/ Employees/ Sq. ft / Building per sq. ft. 1 Employment Sector GFA (Sq. Ft.) of Sq. Ft. Employees Net Acres Net Hectare Net Acre Net Ha employee coverage Assessment ($2006) Manufacturing 730,158 78% 1,661 71 29 24 58 440 24% 24,347,267 33 Warehousing & Distribution² 116,900 12% 67 11 4 6 15 1,745 24% 6,137,293 53 Utilities & Construction 17,300 2% 85 3 1 30 75 204 14% 1,237,533 72 Office 7,167 1% 11 1 0 14 36 652 22% 329,600 46 Retail 46,500 5% 41 6 2 7 18 1,134 19% 1,827,267 39 Other 17,301 2% 65 3 1 24 60 266 15% 2,996,639 173 Total 935,326 100% 1,930 94 38 21 51 485 23% 36,875,599 39 1. Represents major employment absorption from 1982 to 2006. 2. Includes transportation, storage and wholesale trade. Source: City of Guelph. Economic Development & Tourism Services. 2007

Table 4-10 identifies that the majority (78%) of the employment uses found in the York/Watson Industrial Area are found within the manufacturing sector. Employment within the distribution and warehousing sector also accounted for 12% of the total GFA. The remaining 10% of GFA was comprised of a mix of retail, office, utilities and construction, and other uses. For the York/Watson Industrial Area, the warehousing and distribution sector had the lowest employment density of all the employment sectors surveyed at 15 employees/net ha (6 employees/net acre). Increasing demand in the warehousing and distribution sector in Guelph suggests that future employment densities on employment lands will remain low. Guelph’s historical employment concentration in the manufacturing sector and future prospects within the distribution and warehousing sector, would suggest that industrially designated employment lands will continue to be the primary driver of future absorption.

Immediately west of the existing York/Watson Industrial Area is the York Innovation District. Within this area, a total of 212 net ha (524 net acres) of potentially developable employment lands have been identified by the City. The York Innovation District is currently designated as “Institutional” in the City’s Official Plan, requiring further study to determine its best future use. A further description of the York Innovation District is provided in Chapter 5.

Remaining Employment Lands

A total of 53 net ha (130 net acres) of occupied employment lands has been identified throughout the City of Guelph outside of the above identified industrial area/business parks. Chapter 6 provides a review of the City’s remaining vacant employment sites both inside and outside of identified industrial areas/parks.

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4.3.5 Survey of GGH Industrial Business Parks

As part of the Guelph ELS, W&A has developed a survey of industrial/commercial business parks throughout the GGH largely to provide insights with respect to future density trends on employment lands within the City of Guelph. It should be noted that in many of the industrial business parks surveyed, recent density levels (i.e. employees/net ha) have decreased, largely due to an increase in land-extensive development in the warehousing and distribution sector. The results of this survey are summarized in Table 4-11. The key findings of this analysis are as follows:

• Employment densities (employees per net hectare/acre) throughout the industrial/ commercial business parks surveyed varied considerably, depending on the nature of the park/employment area, location, and permitted uses. Overall, employment density was very sensitive to the permitted uses in the parks. Industrial parks which permitted heavy industrial uses with outside storage had the lowest density, while lighter industrial areas averaged a much higher density.

• Industrial parks ranged in density from a low of 20 employees per net ha (8 employees per acre) in Brantford to a high of 58 employees per net ha (23 employees per net acre) in Newmarket. The density of employment lands within the industrial areas surveyed within the City of Guelph are approximately at the mid point of this range.

• As identified in Table 4-11, densities for employment lands employment, which are largely comprised of industrial employment uses, generally have a much lower density than commercial office, population-related employment (i.e. retail, institutional, etc.) uses. As such, existing greenfield employment lands, or potential employment land expansion areas, which are largely oriented to employment lands employment, will not achieve P2G density targets in most cases (50 people/jobs per ha), especially when considering municipalities located in the GGH Outer Ring, such as the City of Guelph.

• Building coverage ranged from 20% to 47% for the industrial parks surveyed. Average industrial building coverage within the City of Guelph is at the low end of this range.

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx TABLE 4-11 CITY OF GUELPH EMPLOYMENT LANDS REVIEW SUMMARY OF SELECTED MUNICIPAL EMPLOYMENT LANDS PHYSICAL AND FISCAL ATTRIBUTES1

Guelph PHYSICAL ATTRIBUTES FISCAL ATTRIBUTES Avg. Hanlon Business Park Site Area Avg. Floor Sq. Ft. per Building Employee per Employees per Assessment Assessment (acres) Area (sq.ft.) Employee Coverage Acre Ha per Sq. Ft. per Acre Employment Sector Industrial 4.78 33,377 661 20% 14 34 $45 $376,071

Guelph PHYSICAL ATTRIBUTES FISCAL ATTRIBUTES Avg. York/Watson Industrial Area Site Area Avg. Floor Sq. Ft. per Building Employee per Employees per Assessment Assessment (acres) Area (sq.ft.) Employee Coverage Acre Ha per Sq. Ft. per Acre Employment Sector Industrial 3.26 20,314 485 21% 19 48 $40 $402,947

Milton PHYSICAL ATTRIBUTES FISCAL ATTRIBUTES Avg. James Snow Parkway Area Site Area Avg. Floor Sq. Ft. per Building Employee per Employees per Assessment Assessment (acres) Area (sq.ft.) Employee Coverage Acre Ha per Sq. Ft. per Acre Employment Sector General Industrial 9.09 92,948 571 23% 18 44 $63 $649,175 Commercial (Retail) 9.93 110,406 552 26% 20 50 $118 $1,312,622

Newmarket PHYSICAL ATTRIBUTES FISCAL ATTRIBUTES Avg. Harry Walker Parkway Industrial Park Site Area Avg. Floor Sq. Ft. per Building Employee per Employees per Assessment Assessment (acres) Area (sq.ft.) Employee Coverage Acre Ha per Sq. Ft. per Acre Employment Sector Light Industrial 71.09 63,143 888 47% 23 58 $64 $1,326,623

Richmond Hill / Markham PHYSICAL ATTRIBUTES FISCAL ATTRIBUTES Avg. Beaver Creek / Commerce Valley Dr. Area Site Area Avg. Floor Sq. Ft. per Building Employee per Employees per Assessment Assessment (acres) Area (sq.ft.) Employee Coverage Acre Ha per Sq. Ft. per Acre Employment Sector Business Commercial/Office 4.57 139,720 353 70% 86 214 $135 $1,937,536 Prestige Industrial 2.87 52,696 383 42% 48 118 $97 $1,779,425

PHYSICAL ATTRIBUTES FISCAL ATTRIBUTES Avg. Brantford Site Area Avg. Floor Sq. Ft. per Building Employee per Employees per Assessment Assessment (acres) Area (sq.ft.) Employee Coverage Acre Ha per Sq. Ft. per Acre Employment Sector 2- General Industrial Zone 10.20 87,100 1,081 20% 8 20 $41 $351,185

PHYSICAL ATTRIBUTES FISCAL ATTRIBUTES Avg. Mississauga (Gateway) Site Area Avg. Floor Sq. Ft. per Building Employee per Employees per Assessment Assessment (acres) Area (sq.ft.) Employee Coverage Acre Ha per Sq. Ft. per Acre Employment Sector 1 - Industrial Uses (Limited Outside Storage) 2.18 53,500 2,112 48% 20 49 $80 $1,686,842 2- Industrial Uses (Outside Storage) 2.27 33,750 1,607 34% 9 23 $125 $1,859,882 3- Restricted Commercial (Office) 2.06 25,000 144 35% 106 261 $173 $2,618,431 Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. Survey, 2007.

1 Assessment per sq.ft./acre based on 2006 data.

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Assessment per sq.ft. was much more sensitive to the geographic location of the surveyed employment areas rather than the permitted uses. Of the industrial parks surveyed, assessment per sq.ft. ranged from $40 in Guelph to $125 in Mississauga.

4.4 Observations – Economic and Employment Profile

The analysis provided in this Chapter identifies a number of key observations with respect to the City’s historical employment growth trends within a regional and local market context:

• Historical employment growth rates within the City of Guelph (1981-2001) have been well above the GGH average;

• Non-residential building permit activity appears to be stabilizing in the West GTA, largely due to a diminishing supply of available employment land. As a result, non-residential development pressure is increasing for the GGH “Outer Ring”;

• The City of Guelph is less dependent on neighbouring GTAH municipalities for employment as compared to most other GGH municipalities surveyed;

• The majority of Guelph’s occupied employment lands are located within the North West Guelph Industrial Area;

• Guelph’s employment lands are largely comprised of manufacturing-based employment;

• Employment density on occupied Guelph employment lands were generally lowest in the distribution and warehousing sector. This suggests that the average employment density on employment lands in Guelph will remain low due to the strong forecast demand in this sector; and

• Guelph’s historical employment concentration in the manufacturing sector, and future prospects within the warehousing and distribution sector, would suggest that industrially designated employment lands will continue to drive future land absorption.

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5. CITY OF GUELPH EMPLOYMENT LANDS SUPPLY

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5. CITY OF GUELPH EMPLOYMENT LANDS SUPPLY

5.1 Vacant Employment Lands

5.1.1 Overview of Vacant Employment Land Supply

Table 5-1a summarizes total gross and net vacant employment lands supply for the City of Guelph (as of October, 2006) by industrial area/park. A site-by-site inventory of the City’s vacant employment land supply has been provided in Appendix C. For certain industrial areas/parks, which are largely undeveloped, additional adjustments have been made for environmentally sensitive lands/environmental features (i.e. watercourses) and internal infrastructure (i.e. roads, stormwater ponds, easements, etc.). Where applicable, the net to gross adjustment for internal infrastructure was assumed to be approximately 83% of the gross inventory. For vacant employment lands which have been identified for environmental impact assessment, it has been assumed that 50% of the gross industrial land area would be developable on average. In accordance with aforementioned adjustments for internal infrastructure and environmentally sensitive/constrained lands, the City’s net developable employment lands supply is estimated at 718 net hectares (1,775 net acres).

Additional reductions to the net developable vacant employment land supply have also been made to account for long-term land vacancy. This adjustment accounts for sites which are unlikely to develop over the long-term (i.e. 2006 to 2031) due to odd/small lot sizes and poor configuration, underutilized employment sites, and site inactivity/land banking, which may tie up potentially vacant and developable lands. Long-term land vacancy is a common characteristic which is experienced in industrial parks throughout the GTAH. Appendix D provides a sample of selected GTAH industrial parks which are 20+ years of age. On average, total land vacancy rates were calculated at 13%. For the purpose of this analysis, a more conservative estimate of approximately 5% long-term land vacancy has been used, i.e. (total net occupied (A) + total net vacant land area (C) * 5%). Adjusted for land vacancy, the City’s net developable vacant employment land supply is 648 net hectares (1,600 net acres).

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx TABLE 5-1a CITY OF GUELPH SUPPLY OF EMPLOYMENT LANDS (AS AT OCTOBER, 2006)

Total Net Percent Adjustment for Net Vacant Employment Land Vacant Net Environmentally Constrained Roads and other Developable Long-term Land Supply Adjusted for Developabl Occupied/Built Employment Adjustment (50% of identified Internal Employment Land Vacancy Adjustment Land Vacancy e Supply Percent of Total 1 2 Lands (A) Occupied Total Gross Vacant (B) Lands)(C) Infrastructure(D) Supply (E = B-C-D) (F) (G = E-F) (H) Employment Net Net Net Net Net Net Net Net Employment Area/Park Net Acres Net HectaresLands Net Acres Hectares Net Acres Hectares Acres Hectares Net Acres Hectares Acres Hectares Net Acres Hectares % Hanlon Business Park 321 130 19% 30.7 12.4 2.9 1.2 0.0 0.0 27.8 11.3 17.4 7.1 10.4 4.2 1% Hanlon Creek Business Park 0 0 0% 377.0 152.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 377.0 152.6 18.8 7.6 358.1 144.9 29% North West Guelph Industrial Area 1,077 436 62% 159.7 64.6 20.9 8.5 0.0 0.0 138.8 56.2 60.8 24.6 78.0 31.6 6% South Guelph Industrial Area 86 35 5% 573.7 232.2 63.9 25.9 13.6 5.5 496.2 200.8 29.1 11.8 467.1 189.0 38% York/Watson Industrial Area 3 111 45 6% 103.0 41.7 13.9 5.6 0.0 0.0 89.1 36.1 10.0 4.0 79.1 32.0 6% Urban Reserve Lands 0 0 0% 347.9 140.8 143.7 58.1 59.1 23.9 145.1 58.7 7.3 2.9 137.8 55.8 11% Remaining Employment Lands 130 53 8% 113.8 46.1 6.7 2.7 4.8 1.9 102.3 41.4 11.6 4.7 90.7 36.7 7% Total 1,725 698 100% 1,705.8 690.3 252.0 102.0 77.5 31.4 1,376.4 557.0 155.1 62.8 1,221.3 494.3 100% York Innovation District 0 0 523.8 212.0 35.8 14.5 89.0 36.0 398.9 161.4 19.9 8.1 379.0 153.4 24% Total (w/York Innovation District) 1,725 698 2,229.6 902.3 287.8 116.5 166.5 67.4 1,775.3 718.4 175.0 70.8 1,600.3 647.6 100% Source: City of Guelph Planning Dept. October 2006, confirmed June, 2008. 1. Where applicable, a downward adjustment of approx.17% of the gross area has been applied to account for internal infrastructure. 2. Long term employment land vacancy adjustment - 5% of net occupied and net developable employment lands. Accounts for employment land sites which may not develop over the long-term (i.e. 2031) due to odd/small lot size and poor configuration, underutilized employment sites, and sites inactive/land banking.

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As summarized in Table 5-1b, the City’s net developable vacant employment land supply has been identified within the following employment areas or industrial business parks:

TABLE 5-1b CITY OF GUELPH SUMMARY OF NET VACANT DEVELOPABLE EMPLOYMENT LANDS BY EMPLOYMENT AREA/PARK

Vacant Net Developable, Employment Land Supply - Adjusted for Land Vacancy Percent of Vacant Employment Employment Area/Park Ha Acres Land Supply Hanlon Business Park 4 10 1% Hanlon Creek Business Park 145 358 22% North West Guelph Industrial Area 32 78 5% South Guelph Industrial Area 189 467 29% York/Watson Industrial Area 32 79 5% Urban Reserve Lands 56 138 9% Remaining Employment Lands 37 91 6% York/Watson Special Study Area 153 379 24% Total 648 1,600 100% Source: City of Guelph Planning Department, October 2006. Confirmed June 2008.

Map 5-1 illustrates the geographic location of the City’s remaining employment land supply which is identified as vacant or unoccupied. Map 5-1 identifies that many of the remaining available vacant employment sites within the City’s more mature industrial areas such as the North West Guelph Industrial Area are becoming fragmented, as many of the larger and more desirable sites have already been absorbed. Over the long-term (i.e. 2031), it is foreseeable that a portion of these smaller fragmented sites may be slow to absorb, or may remain vacant given their more restricted development potential.

The summary of net vacant and developable employment land supply calculated for the City of Guelph includes the vacant lands identified as the York Innovation District located adjacent to the York/Watson Industrial Area.

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MAP 5-1 5-4

North West Guelph Industrial Area

University of York/Watson Guelph Industrial Research Area Park

York Innovation District Hanlon Business Park

Hanlon Creek Business Park

South Guelph Urban Industrial Area Reserve Lands

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In November of 2007, the Ministry of Public Infrastructure Renewal (PIR) released a report entitled “York District Lands – Guelph, Ontario.” The report provides an examination of the local economy and development options for the lands within York District that are Provincially owned. This Provincial report, which focuses on the “function” of the subject area, represents a key component of the York District Land Use and Servicing Study, as initiated by the City. The overall study process has been divided into three phases, including:

Phase One - Detailed assessment of conditions in the York District Phase Two - Evaluation of proposed land use concepts Phase Three - Recommended land use concepts (commencing in the fall of 2007)1

The proposed development scheme provides a focus on research and commercialization, providing jobs in key areas of the Guelph economic structure that have existing strengths: automotive, agriculture and environment. In addition, adaptive reuse of existing facilities, the creation of mixed-use life/work opportunities, and the retention of important heritage elements are also promoted as part of the proposed development scheme. As of October 2006, a total net developable supply of 229 net ha (566 net acres) has been identified within this area.2 Assuming that the area is developed at P2G density targets (i.e. 50 jobs/persons per ha), it is estimated that the York Innovation District lands could accommodate approximately 9,180 total employees. Based on a further review of net developable land supply and potential density yields, it is our opinion that the developable land area and employment yield, as estimated in the Provincial study, is very optimistic.

The summary of net vacant and developable employment land supply, as provided in Table 5- 1b also includes lands identified as the Urban Reserve Lands located east of the South Guelph Industrial Area between Maltby Road (to the south) and Clair Road (to the north). A total of 55 net developable ha (136 net acres) have been identified within this area. These lands are located within the Galt-Paris Moraine, which the City of Guelph Council has requested to the Province be included in the Greenbelt. As such, the future development of these lands is uncertain at this time.3

1 The City’s process was suspended between Phase Two and Phase Three to allow time to incorporate the findings of the Provincial study. 2 The total amount of “developable” land area identified in the November 2007 York District Lands Study is considerably higher than the figure provided in Table 5-1b. Further downward adjustments to the “developable” land area have been made by the City of Guelph in conjunction with W&A to account for environmentally constrained lands and local infrastructure requirements. 3 October 19, 2007 letter from City of Guelph Mayor to Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing. Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx

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These lands would include the Urban Reserve lands in their entirety. As such, the preferred growth option prepared under the LGMS recommends that the lands within the Urban Reserve designation in South Guelph be removed.

5.1.2 Vacant Employment Land Supply by Market Availability and Servicing

Tables 5-2a through 5-2f provides a detailed analysis of the City’s vacant employment lands inventory based on market availability and timing of servicing (i.e. vacant lands for sale/lease vs. vacant lands which have been identified as “not on the market”). Employment lands which have been identified as “not on the market” include sites which have been recently sold but have not yet been developed, sites which are being held by the land owner for future expansion, or sites which are inactive and are not identified as being for sale or lease.

The results of this analysis identifies that the City has essentially exhausted its supply of municipally owned lands which are presently serviced and for sale/lease (4 ha or 10 acres). With respect to privately owned lands, a total of 60 net hectares (149 net acres) of market available serviced lands have been identified. The remaining 29 ha (72 acres) of currently serviced employment lands has been identified as “not on the market” by the City of Guelph Economic Development and Tourism Services. As outlined above, the City’s current supply of employment lands is very limited and will likely begin to constrain demand if not rectified.

Over the short to medium term (i.e. 2008 to 2013) the City has identified that approximately 267 hectares (661 acres) of employment lands will be serviced within the Hanlon Creek Business Park and South Guelph Industrial Area. The timing of the remaining 359 ha (887 acres) of vacant developable employment lands is unknown at this time.

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx TABLE 5-2a CITY OF GUELPH INVENTORY OF NET DEVELOPABLE VACANT EMPLOYMENT LAND SUPPLY BY MARKET AVAILABILITY AND SERVICING (CURRENTLY SERVICED) (Ha)

For Sale For Lease Not on the Market 1 Total Percent of Total Municipally Municipally Privately Municipally Privately Municipally Privately Municipally Privately Employment Area/Park Owned Privately Owned Total Owned Owned Total Owned Owned Total Owned Owned Total Owned Owned Hanlon Business Park 2.0 2.0 0.3 8.9 9.2 0.3 11.0 11.3 3% 97% Hanlon Creek Business Park 0.0 0.0 0.0 0% 0% North West Guelph Industrial Area 23.1 23.1 6.7 6.7 0.0 29.9 29.9 0% 100% South Guelph Industrial Area 23.4 23.4 3.4 3.4 0.0 26.8 26.8 0% 100% York/Watson Industrial Area 2 3.8 3.8 4.4 4.4 0.0 8.1 8.1 0% 100% Urban Reserve Lands 0.0 0.0 0.0 0% 0% Remaining Employment Lands 3.7 8.1 11.8 4.8 3.7 12.9 16.6 22% 78% York Innovation District 0.0 Total 3.7 60.4 64.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 28.2 28.5 4.0 88.6 92.6 4% 96% Source: City of Guelph Planning Dept. October 2006, confirmed June, 2008. 1. Lands are identified as vacant but are not for sale or lease. These lands have either been sold or are being held off the market by the land owner for various reasons. 2. Excludes lands identified under York Innovation District TABLE 5-2b CITY OF GUELPH INVENTORY OF NET DEVELOPABLE VACANT EMPLOYMENT LAND SUPPLY BY MARKET AVAILABILITY AND SERVICING (SERVICES AVAILABLE IN 2008) (Ha)

For Sale For Lease Not on the Market 1 Total Percent of Total Municipally Municipally Privately Municipally Privately Municipally Privately Municipally Privately Employment Area/Park Owned Privately Owned Total Owned Owned Total Owned Owned Total Owned Owned Total Owned Owned Hanlon Business Park 0.0 0.0 0.0 0% 0% Hanlon Creek Business Park 33.6 19.3 52.9 33.6 19.3 52.9 64% 36% North West Guelph Industrial Area 0.0 0.0 0.0 0% 0% South Guelph Industrial Area 0% 0% York/Watson Industrial Area 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0% 0% Urban Reserve Lands 0.0 0.0 0.0 0% 0% Remaining Employment Lands 0.0 0.0 0.0 0% 0% York Innovation District Total 33.6 19.3 52.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.6 19.3 52.9 64% 36% Source: City of Guelph Planning Dept. October 2006, confirmed June, 2008. 1. Lands are identified as vacant but are not for sale or lease. These lands have either been sold or are being held off the market by the land owner for various reasons. 2. Excludes lands identified under York Innovation District

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For Sale For Lease Not on the Market 1 Total Percent of Total Municipally Municipally Privately Municipally Privately Municipally Privately Municipally Privately Employment Area/Park Owned Privately Owned Total Owned Owned Total Owned Owned Total Owned Owned Total Owned Owned Hanlon Business Park 0.0 0.0 0.0 0% 0% Hanlon Creek Business Park 0.0 0.0 0.0 0% 0% North West Guelph Industrial Area 0.0 0.0 0.0 0% 0% South Guelph Industrial Area 105.5 105.5 4.4 4.4 0.0 109.9 109.9 0% 100% York/Watson Industrial Area 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0% 0% Urban Reserve Lands 0.0 0.0 0.0 0% 0% Remaining Employment Lands 0.0 0.0 0.0 0% 0% York Innovation District Total 0.0 105.5 105.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 4.4 0.0 109.9 109.9 0% 100% Source: City of Guelph Planning Dept. October 2006, confirmed June, 2008. 1. Lands are identified as vacant but are not for sale or lease. These lands have either been sold or are being held off the market by the land owner for various reasons. 2. Excludes lands identified under York Innovation District

TABLE 5-2d CITY OF GUELPH INVENTORY OF NET DEVELOPABLE VACANT EMPLOYMENT LAND SUPPLY BY MARKET AVAILABILITY AND SERVICING (SERVICES AVAILABLE 2009 TO 2013) (Ha)

For Sale For Lease Not on the Market 1 Total Percent of Total Municipally Municipally Privately Municipally Privately Municipally Privately Municipally Privately Employment Area/Park Owned Privately Owned Total Owned Owned Total Owned Owned Total Owned Owned Total Owned Owned Hanlon Business Park 0.0 0.0 0.0 0% 0% Hanlon Creek Business Park 64.4 35.2 99.7 64.4 35.2 99.7 65% 35% North West Guelph Industrial Area 0.9 4.0 0.9 4.0 5.0 19% 81% South Guelph Industrial Area 0% 0% York/Watson Industrial Area 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0% 0% Urban Reserve Lands 0.0 0.0 0.0 0% 0% Remaining Employment Lands 0.0 0.0 0.0 0% 0% Total Total 64.4 35.2 99.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 4.0 0.0 65.3 39.3 104.6 62% 38% Source: City of Guelph Planning Dept. October 2006, confirmed June, 2008. 1. Lands are identified as vacant but are not for sale or lease. These lands have either been sold or are being held off the market by the land owner for various reasons. 2. Excludes lands identified under York Innovation District

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\Report Chapters\Guelph Emp Growth _169,000 Total TABLE 5-2e CITY OF GUELPH INVENTORY OF NET DEVELOPABLE VACANT EMPLOYMENT LAND SUPPLY BY MARKET AVAILABILITY AND SERVICING (TIMING SERVICING UNKNOWN) (Ha)

For Sale For Lease Not on the Market 1 Total Percent of Total Municipally Municipally Privately Municipally Privately Municipally Privately Municipally Privately Employment Area/Park Owned Privately Owned Total Owned Owned Total Owned Owned Total Owned Owned Total Owned Owned Hanlon Business Park 0.0 0.0 0.0 0% 0% Hanlon Creek Business Park 0.0 0.0 0.0 0% 0% North West Guelph Industrial Area 12.3 12.3 7.8 7.8 1.3 7.8 13.6 21.3 36% 64% South Guelph Industrial Area 53.4 53.4 10.8 0.0 0.0 64.2 64.2 0% 100% York/Watson Industrial Area 2 0.6 19.1 19.8 8.2 8.2 8.8 19.1 27.9 32% 68% Urban Reserve Lands 58.4 58.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 58.7 58.7 0% 100% Remaining Employment Lands 0.3 0.3 24.6 0.0 24.8 24.8 0% 100% York Innovation District 161.4 161.4 0.0 161.4 161.4 0% 100% Total 0.6 143.4 144.0 7.8 10.8 7.8 8.2 187.7 170.0 16.6 341.9 358.5 5% 95% Source: City of Guelph Planning Dept. October 2006, confirmed June, 2008. 1. Lands are identified as vacant but are not for sale or lease. These lands have either been sold or are being held off the market by the land owner for various reasons. 2. Excludes lands identified under York Innovation District

TABLE 5-2f CITY OF GUELPH INVENTORY OF NET DEVELOPABLE VACANT EMPLOYMENT LAND SUPPLY BY MARKET AVAILABILITY AND SERVICING (TOTAL SUPPLY) (Ha)

For Sale For Lease Not on the Market 1 Total Percent of Total Municipally Municipally Privately Municipally Privately Municipally Privately Municipally Privately Employment Area/Park Owned Privately Owned Total Owned Owned Total Owned Owned Total Owned Owned Total Owned Owned Hanlon Business Park 0.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 8.9 9.2 0.3 11.0 11.3 3% 97% Hanlon Creek Business Park 98.0 54.5 152.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.0 54.5 152.6 64% 36% North West Guelph Industrial Area 0.0 35.4 35.4 7.8 0.0 7.8 0.9 12.1 13.0 8.7 47.5 56.2 15% 85% South Guelph Industrial Area 0.0 182.2 182.2 0.0 10.8 0.0 0.0 7.8 7.8 0.0 200.8 200.8 0% 100% York/Watson Industrial Area 2 0.6 22.9 23.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 4.4 12.6 8.8 27.2 36.1 24% 76% Urban Reserve Lands 0.0 58.4 58.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 58.7 58.7 0% 100% Remaining Employment Lands 3.7 8.4 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.3 29.3 3.7 37.7 41.4 9% 91% York Innovation District 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 161.4 161.4 0.0 161.4 161.4 0% 100% Total 102.4 363.8 466.2 7.8 10.8 7.8 9.4 224.3 233.7 119.5 598.9 718.4 17% 83% Source: City of Guelph Planning Dept. October 2006, confirmed June, 2008. 1. Lands are identified as vacant but are not for sale or lease. These lands have either been sold or are being held off the market by the land owner for various reasons. 2. Excludes lands identified under York Innovation District

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5.1.3 Vacant Employment Land Supply by Site Size

Table 5-3 summarizes the City’s net vacant employment lands supply by site size from less than 1 ha to greater than 12 ha. Throughout the City of Guelph, a total of 148 vacant employment land sites have been identified. Of this total, 96 sites or 68% are occupied by small to medium sizes lots under 4 ha (10 acres). An additional 38 sites or 27% are occupied by medium sized lots which are between 4 and 12 ha (10 to 30 acres). Only 6% of the City’s employment land sites are greater than 12 ha (30 acres).

TABLE 5-3 CITY OF GUELPH INVENTORY OF NET DEVELOPABLE VACANT EMPLOYMENT LAND SUPPLY BY SITE SIZE

Area of Land Percent of Number of Site Size (Ha) (Ha)1 Land Area Sites Percent 0-.99 18 2% 31 21% 1-1.99 37 5% 26 18% 2-3.99 121 17% 41 28% 4-5.99 114 16% 20 14% 6-11.99 145 20% 20 14% 12+ 283 39% 10 7% Total 718 100% 148 100% Source: City of Guelph Planning Dept. October 2006, confirmed June, 2008. 1. Excludes reduction for long-term land vacancy.

5.1.4 Vacant Employment Land Supply by Official Plan Designation

Table 5-4 summarizes the City’s net vacant employment land supply by OP designation (i.e. industrial vs. corporate business park). Three of the City’s six identified employment areas provide both industrial and corporate business park zoning, including the Hanlon Creek Business Park, the South Guelph Industrial Area, and the Urban Reserve Lands. In total, 163 net developable ha (403 net acres) or 23% of the vacant employment land supply is designated as “Corporate Business Park”, the remaining 556 net ha (1,374 net acres) or 77% is designated for “Industrial” use.

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TABLE 5-4 CITY OF GUELPH INVENTORY OF NET DEVELOPABLE EMPLOYMENT LAND SUPPLY BY OFFICIAL PLAN LAND USE

Percent Corporate Corporate Percent Business Business Employment Area/Park Industrial Industrial Park Park Total Hanlon Business Park 11.3 100% 0% 11.3 Hanlon Creek Business Park 75.0 49% 77.5 51% 152.6 North West Guelph Industrial Area 56.2 100% 0% 56.2 South Guelph Industrial Area 152.1 76% 48.8 24% 200.8 York/Watson Industrial Area 36.1 100% 0% 36.1 Urban Reserve Lands 22.1 38% 36.6 62% 58.7 Remaining Employment Lands1 41.4 100% 0% 41.4 York District Special Study Area¹ 161.4 100% 0% 161.4 Total 555.6 77% 162.9 23% 718.4 Source: City of Guelph Planning Dept. October 2006, confirmed June, 2008. 1. Identified as industrial development potential

5.1.5 Market Choice Requirements

From a market choice perspective, one of the most important industrial site selection criteria which is largely controllable by the City, relates to ensuring that an ample supply of suitable vacant serviced (and serviceable) employment land is available for purchase and absorption. This involves providing a readily available and serviced employment land supply which is well beyond forecast absorption, to fully provide for a range of site selection choices, with respect to:

• price; • site size; • availability and cost of servicing; • neighbourhood and setting; • zoning; • visibility; • highway access; • privacy; • topography; • environmental conditions; • • tenure (lease vs. design build vs. own); and

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• other industrial land market requirements which can be added including soil conditions, site proportioning (frontage to depth), timing of servicing, site expandability, etc.

If Guelph is to have an adequate supply of employment land over both the short and long-term planning period, then it needs to have a full range of employment land sites on the market. To ensure that the City’s employment lands supply levels are not constrained, it is recommended that the City provide a minimum designated and serviced employment land supply of at least five years at all times (100 hectares). This supply inventory should offer a range of site selection choices for small (i.e. <1 ha and 1-4 ha), medium (4-12 ha), and large (> 12 ha) sites within both the industrial and corporate business park zoning. Table 5-5 provides a summary of the recommended supply by site size vs. actual supply.

Over the 2006 to 2031 planning period, it is recommended that the City monitor its current employment lands inventory at minimum every five years to determine if additional employment lands are required to accommodate forecast demand. Phase 2 of this study will provide recommendations on how the City should monitor its supply of “market available” employment lands and the mechanisms required to ensure this minimum is maintained.

TABLE 5-5 CITY OF GUELPH SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDED VS. AVAILABLE EMPLOYMENT LAND SUPPLY BY SITE SIZE

Recommended Market Choice Provision Actual No. of Sites Currently Serviced and Available Recommended Number of Site Size Ave. Serviced Sites (5 Number of Area Deficit/ Range (Ha) Size Years) Total (Ha) Sites (Net Ha) (Surplus) <1 0.5 12 6 1 0.3 -5.7 1-4 2 11 22 8 22.60.6 4-12 8 5 40 2 16.7-23.3 >12 16 2 32 2 24.6 -7.5 Total 30 100 13 64.1 -35.9 Source: City of Guelph Planning Dept. June, 2008. Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

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5.2 Observations – Employment Land Supply

The analysis provided in this section identifies a number of key observations with respect to the City’s current employment lands supply:

• Based on short-term demand, the City has just over a four years’ supply of serviced and available employment lands;

• The City of Guelph has currently exhausted its supply of municipally-owned, serviced employment land; and

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6. CITY OF GUELPH FORECAST EMPLOYMENT GROWTH WITHIN A REGIONAL AND LOCAL CONTEXT

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6. CITY OF GUELPH FORECAST EMPLOYMENT GROWTH WITHIN A REGIONAL AND LOCAL CONTEXT

6.1 Introduction

Chapter 6 summarizes the employment projections which form the base of the employment land needs forecast, as outlined in Chapter 7. The 2006 to 2031 employment forecast, as provided herein, has been developed based on a review of historical employment growth trends, recent non-residential development activity, consideration of existing approved employment forecasts for the City of Guelph, and an analysis of the anticipated drivers of future employment lands demand for the municipality. A detailed description of the approach to employment forecasting is provided in Chapter 2.

6.2 The Evolving Trends of Employment Growth within the GGH

The City of Guelph is located within one of the fastest growing City/Regions in North America, known as the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH). As previously identified, this area comprises the municipalities which make up the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTAH), as well as the surrounding Regions/Counties within Central Ontario, known as the “Outer Ring,” which extends from Haldimand County in the southwest to Simcoe County in the north, to Peterborough County in the northeast.

From 1996 to 2001, the GGH added 548,900 persons and 302,600 employees to its base. In accordance with Schedule 3 of the June, 2006 Provincial Growth Plan (P2G), the GGH is forecast to increase from a 2001 population of 7.8 million to 11.5 million in 2031. This represents a population increase of 3.7 million persons, or 123,300 persons per year. With respect to employment, the GGH is forecast to increase from 3.8 million employees in 2001 to 5.6 million by 2031, an increase of 1.8 million employees, or 60,000 employees per year. This represents a substantial increase in population and employment relative to other North American metropolitan regions of comparable population.

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Map 6-1 Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH)

City of Guelph

At the core of the GGH is the City of Toronto, and the surrounding Regions/Municipalities of the GTAH.1 Traditionally, the greatest share of population and employment growth within the GGH has centred around the suburban municipalities of the west and north GTAH. This is largely due to the myriad of 400 series highways which connect the area, access to passenger travel, freight and delivery services via Pearson International Airport, and proximity to both the Toronto and U.S employment markets via border crossings in both Niagara Falls/Fort Erie and Windsor/Sarnia. As a result, the larger west and north GTA municipalities such as Mississauga, Brampton and Vaughan have traditionally been very successful in attracting a variety of industries within a broad range of industrial and commercial sectors. The above attributes of the west GTAH have produced a highly competitive and diverse employment market, which has provided industrial developers with considerable choice for development (i.e. site selection, access/exposure, zoning, price, etc.).

1 The GTAH is comprised of the City of Toronto, Regions of Halton, Peel, York, Durham, and the City of Hamilton. Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx

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As part of the P2G Growth Plan, the Province of Ontario projects that employment growth within the GTAH and the GGH will continue to be strong, albeit at a diminishing growth rate, largely as a result of an aging labour forecast. Table 6-1 summarizes forecast employment growth levels for the GTAH and the GGH Outer Ring. The P2G employment forecasts identifies the following:

• Forecast annual employment growth rates are anticipated to be strongest for the GTAH Regions of Halton, Peel, York and Durham, at an average annual growth rate of 1.9% from 2001 to 2031;

• Employment growth in the Outer Ring GGH Regions and Counties is forecast to be strongest in Simcoe County, closely followed by Wellington County (including the City of Guelph) at a respective 1.7% and 1.6% annual growth rate;

• In terms of absolute employment growth, Wellington County is forecast to add approximately 59,000 employees from 2001 to 2031 or just under 2,000 employees per year.

TABLE 6-1 PLACES TO GROW EMPLOYMENT FORECAST, 2001-2031

2001 -2031 2001-2031 % Share Annual 2001 Share of Employment of Employment Employment Geographic Area 2001 2011 2021 2031 Employment Growth Growth Growth Rate Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) Simcoe 153,000 197,000 230,000 254,000 4.0% 101,000 5.8% 1.7% Wellington County 99,000 117,000 137,000 158,000 2.6% 59,000 3.4% 1.6% Region of Waterloo 236,000 282,000 324,000 366,000 6.2% 130,000 7.4% 1.5% County of Dufferin 19,000 22,000 25,000 27,000 0.5% 8,000 0.5% 1.2% Kawartha Lakes 20,000 23,000 25,000 27,000 0.5% 7,000 0.4% 1.0% Brant 55,000 62,000 67,000 71,000 1.4% 16,000 0.9% 0.9% Niagara 186,000 201,000 209,000 218,000 4.9% 32,000 1.8% 0.5% Haldimand 17,000 19,000 19,000 20,000 0.4% 3,000 0.2% 0.5% Northumberland 29,000 32,000 33,000 33,000 0.8% 4,000 0.2% 0.4% Peterborough 54,000 59,000 60,000 60,000 1.4% 6,000 0.3% 0.4%

GTAH City of Toronto 1,440,000 1,540,000 1,600,000 1,640,000 37.72% 200,000 11.45% 0.4% Remaining GTAH 1,510,000 2,090,000 2,440,000 2,690,000 39.55% 1,180,000 67.58% 1.9% Outer Ring Total 3,818,000 4,644,000 5,169,000 5,564,000 100.0% 1,746,000 100.0% 1.3% Source: Places to Grow Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006. Ontario Ministry of Public Infrastructure Renewal Includes no fixed place of work employment which is approximately 10.5% of 2001 GGH employment base

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6.3 Drivers of Future Employment Growth in Guelph

There are several factors which suggest that Guelph and the other areas of the GGH “Outer Ring” will take on a larger regional role over the next 25 years with respect to GGH employment growth. The following drivers of future employment growth and employment land needs have been identified for the City of Guelph, which support the trend for a larger GGH employment growth share in Guelph over the 2006 to 2031 planning period.

1. Diminishing GTAH Employment Lands Supply

Within the Greater Toronto Area + Hamilton (GTAH), the availability of vacant designated employment lands is tightening up considerably as the area’s major urban centres continue to mature. For example, a recent study prepared by Hemson Consulting Ltd. entitled “Understanding Employment Land in the Region of Peel”, identifies that the City of Mississauga had a 2,693 net acre (1,090 net ha) supply of vacant employment lands as of 2003, from a total employment lands inventory (occupied + vacant) of 16,284 net acres (6,590 net Ha). At present, the City of Mississauga’s employment land supply is already over 80% built out, and according to Hemson Consulting Ltd., is anticipated to reach full build out by approximately 2018.

To further exacerbate the issue, as discussed in Chapter 3, under the recent Provincial planning framework, future opportunities for additional “greenfield” lands are becoming more limited in the GTAH, as a considerable portion of potentially developable greenfield lands have been removed from the supply inventory under the Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Act, 2001, and Greenbelt Protection Act, 2005. Accordingly, the diminishing supply of employment lands within the GTAH is anticipated to increase outward development pressures in the GGH Outer Ring.

2. Centralized Location and Access

Located just 5-10 minutes north of Hwy 401, the City of Guelph is strategically located between employment markets of Kitchener-Waterloo to the west and Brant Count to the south. Employment growth and the expansion of economic clusters within these surrounding areas will provide significant spin-off opportunities for the City of Guelph. For example, over the next 15 years, the neighbouring municipality of Milton is forecast to add over 37,000 jobs to its existing

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6-5 employment base of approximately 33,800 employees.1 The City’s location also provides efficient access to other Canadian destinations, as well as the U.S border via both Fort Erie and Windsor.

3. Access to Labour Force Pool

As rapid population growth continues in the west and north GTAH, the City of Guelph is increasingly becoming more integrated with its large neighbouring urban municipalities (i.e. Milton and Brampton). Guelph’s proximity to these major urban centres within the GTAH provides an ideal source of local labour for employment growth within the City of Guelph.

4. Competitive Industrial Land Prices

Industrial land values within the larger urban centres of the west and north GTA range from a low of $400,000 per acre in North Brampton to $790,000 per acre in the City of Mississauga within the Northeast Industrial Park adjacent to the Pearson International Airport. Average industrial land values for vacant serviced industrial land within the municipality of Guelph are currently in the low $250-300,000 range. Competitive industrial land prices, combined with a diminishing supply of available vacant industrial land throughout many of the more heavily urbanized municipalities of the west and north GTA have placed considerable pressure for industrial development within the City of Guelph.

6.4 Forecast Employment Growth for the City of Guelph by Sector

Table 6-2 summarizes forecast employment growth for the City of Guelph by major sector from 2001 to 2031. The employment forecast provided herein builds on previous projections which have been prepared for the City of Guelph. Consideration has also been given to the recent employment forecast prepared under Schedule 3 of the P2G Provincial Growth Plan, as well as the impacts of other Provincial planning policy initiatives (i.e. Greenbelt Plan, 2005 PPS, Bill 51) which have been initiated since the release of the latest employment forecast for the City. Over the 2006 to 2031 forecast period:

1 Halton Region Best Planning Estimates, 2007. Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx TABLE 6-2 FORECAST EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY MAJOR EMPLOYMENT SECTOR, 2006-2031

Forecast Year Employment Sector 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 No Fixed Place of Work 690 740 810 890 970 1,030 1,090 Primary 260 170 160 160 150 130 120 Work at Home 3,150 3,300 3,630 4,160 4,490 4,800 5,130 Industrial 25,400 26,460 30,000 32,610 34,780 36,660 38,140 Commercial / Population-Related 18,540 21,550 22,750 25,210 27,530 29,550 31,910 Institutional 14,970 15,770 17,330 19,200 20,870 22,440 24,000 Total Employment 63,010 67,990 74,680 82,230 88,790 94,610 100,390 Total Population (Excl. Population Undercount) 106,170 114,943 125,000 137,000 148,000 158,000 169,000

Total Employment Activity Rate (Excl. Population Undercount) 59.35% 59.15% 59.74% 60.02% 59.99% 59.88% 59.40% 1. 2001, 2006 population based on Census adjusted for undercoverage. 2031 Forecast population based on City of Guelph Council Report, June 23, 2008.

Annual Employment Growth Total Employment Growth Annual Employment Growth Rate Employment Sector 2006-2016 2006-2031 2006-2016 2006-2031 2006-2016 2006-2031 No Fixed Place of Work 150 350 15 14 0 1.6% Primary -10 -50 -1 -2 0 -1.4% Work at Home 860 1,830 86 73 2.3% 1.8% Industrial 6,150 11,680 615 467 2.1% 1.5% Commercial / Population-Related 3,660 10,360 366 414 1.6% 1.6% Institutional 3,430 8,230 343 329 2.0% 1.7% Total Employment 14,240 32,400 1,424 1,296 1.9% 1.6% Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 2008

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• By 2031, the City of Guelph will add 32,400 jobs to its 2006 employment base (approximately 1,296 jobs annually), which is well above historical trends from 1981 to 2001. Forecast employment growth rates are anticipated to diminish over the forecast period largely due to the aging of the local labour force and increased productivity (output per worker) in the manufacturing sector;

• With respect to future employment growth rates, Guelph is forecast to grow at an annual rate of 1.6% per year, which is below historical growth levels;

• Industrial employment will account for approximately 36% of all forecast employment growth within the City of Guelph;

• Commercial and institutional employment is also anticipated to increase significantly, largely due to strong population growth projected for the City, as well as the continued student and employment growth at the University of Guelph. Over the 2006 to 2031 projection period, an increase of 22,040 employees is forecast for these combined sectors;

• A portion of the commercial and institutional employment forecast will comprise Major Office development. Major Office employment is defined in the Provincial Growth Plan as freestanding office buildings of 10,000 m2 or greater, or with 500 jobs or more. It is anticipated that approximately 10% of the City’s total employment growth will comprise Major Office development. In accordance with the 2006 to 2031 employment forecast (32,400 total jobs), this would generate approximately 3,240 Major Office employees. It is anticipated that approximately 70% of Major Office employment growth (approximately 2,270 jobs) will be accommodated on employment lands, while the remaining 970 Major Office employees will be accommodated on commercially designated lands.

• Work at home employment is anticipated to increase from 3,300 in 2006 to 5,130 in 2031 largely in response to local population growth; and

• Primary employment (i.e. agriculture) is forecast to decline slightly over the forecast period.

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Table 6-2 also summarizes the corresponding employment activity rate ratios (i.e. jobs per population) based on the employment forecast set out in Table 6-2, and the population forecast as set out in the Report to City Council, 2008.1 Over the 2006 to 2031 forecast period, the City’s employment activity rate is projected to be maintained at 59%.

6.5 Comparison of Guelph Employment Forecast to P2G

Tables 6-3 and 6-4 compare the current employment forecast prepared as part of the Guelph Employment Lands Strategy with the 2003 Development Charges employment forecast for the City of Guelph and the 2006 P2G employment forecast for the City of Guelph and Wellington County. The Places to Grow forecast does not provide a separate employment forecast for the City of Guelph post 2011. The results of this comparison indicate:

2007 Guelph Employment Strategy (W&A) vs. 2006 P2G Forecast

• Based on our analysis of recent and projected short to medium term industrial development prospects for the City of Guelph, the P2G 2011 employment forecast appears slightly overstated (74,700 W&A vs. 76,000 P2G);

• While not specifically broken down for the City of Guelph, the 2021 P2G employment forecast for Wellington County (including the City of Guelph) appears to be generally accurate (138,500 W&A vs. 137,000 P2G);

• The long-term P2G employment forecast for Wellington County (including the City of Guelph) also appears to be slightly overstated (155,390 W&A vs. 158,000 P2G); and

2007 Guelph Employment Strategy vs. 2003 Development Charges Background Study

• Over the short-term (i.e. 2001 to 2011), the W&A employment forecast is slightly lower than the 2003 DC forecast (74,700 W&A vs. 76,200 Guelph 2003); and

• Over the long-term (i.e. 2031) the W&A forecast for the City of Guelph forecasts a higher employment increase (6,400 additional employees) when compared to the 2003 DC

1 Addendum Report – Guelph’s Local Growth Management Strategy Recommendations, June 23, 2008. Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx

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employment forecast. This increase is largely attributable to the additional population growth anticipated for the City as per P2G (175,000 by 2031 including undercount) in comparison with the previous (2003) population forecast for Guelph (157,200 by 2027).1

TABLE 6-3 WELLINGTON COUNTY (INCLUDING GUELPH) EMPLOYMENT FORECAST PLACES TO GROW VS. WATSON & ASSOCIATES ECONOMISTS LTD.

Places to Grow 2001- 2001- 2001- Employment Forecast 2001 2011 2021 2031 2011 2021 2031

Wellington County 36,000 41,000 5,000

Guelph 63,000 76,000 13,000

Total 99,000 117,000 137,000 158,000 18,000 38,000 59,000

Watson Employment 2001- 2001- 2001- Forecast 2001 2011 2021 2031 2011 2021 2031

Wellington County 1 36,000 42,260 49,730 54,990 6,260 13,730 18,990

Guelph2 63,000 74,700 88,800 100,400 11,700 25,800 37,400

Total 99,000 116,960 138,530 155,390 17,960 39,530 56,390

2001- 2001- 2001- Difference (Watson - P2G) 2001 2011 2021 2031 2011 2021 2031

Wellington County - 1,260 1,260

Guelph - (1,300) (1,300)

Total - (40) 1,530 (2,610) (40) 1,530 (2,610)

Note: Employment figures have been adjusted to include no fixed place of work employment, 2001 Census employment for the City of Guelph excluding "no fixed place of work" is 62,315. 1. Wellington County Population, Housing and Employment Forecast Update, 2006-2031. Watson & Associates Economists. Ltd. April 24, 2008 2. City of Guelph Employment lands Strategy Phase 1, July 28, 2008.

1 City of Guelph Household and Population Projections 2001-2027. Final Report. April 20, 2003, p. 7-23. 23. Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx

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TABLE 6-4 CITY OF GUELPH EMPLOYMENT FORECAST COMPARISON

2003 Guelph 2008 City of Guelph Development Charges Employment Lands Year Background Study 1 Strategy² Difference 2001 62,000 63,000 1,000 2011 76,200 74,700 -1,500 2021 86,100 88,800 2,700 2031 94,000 100,400 6,400 Employment Growth 2001-2011 14,200 11,700 2001-2021 24,100 25,800 2001-2031 32,000 37,400 Annual Employment Growth Rate 2001-2011 2.1% 1.7% 2001-2021 1.7% 1.7% 2001-2031 1.4% 1.6%

1. Watson & Associates. Development Charges Background Study, 2003. Note: Employment figures include "No Fixed Place of Work" employment. 2. Watson & Associates, Employment Lands Strategy, July 28, 2008. Note: Employment figures include "No Fixed Place of Work" employment.

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6.6 Observations – City of Guelph Forecast Employment Growth

The analysis provided in this Chapter identifies a number of observations with respect to the City’s forecast employment growth trends within a regional and local market context:

• The City of Guelph is located within one of the fastest growing City/Regions within North America, known as the GGH;

• While Guelph’s share of employment growth within the north/west GGH employment market area has historically been relatively small, there are several factors which suggest that Guelph and the surrounding area will begin to take on a larger regional role, including:

i. diminishing GTAH employment lands supply within mature urban areas; ii. Hwy 401 access to the GTAH and southern Ontario employment market; iii. access to GTAH infrastructure (i.e. Pearson Airport) and labour force; and iv. competitive industrial land prices.

• In absolute terms, forecast annual employment growth in Guelph is projected to average approximately 1,296 employees per year – which is well above annual employment growth from 1981 to 2001; and

• Forecast employment growth within the City of Guelph is anticipated to be weighted towards the industrial and commercial sectors; however, institutional development will also play a key role in providing a range of future employment opportunities within the City.

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7. CITY OF GUELPH EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS, 2006-2031

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7. CITY OF GUELPH EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS, 2006- 2031

7.1 Introduction

Chapter 7 summarizes total employment land needs within the City of Guelph to 2031 based on the employment supply and demand analysis provided in Chapters 5 and 6. This analysis identifies additional employment lands (i.e. expansion areas) in gross hectares/acres which are required outside of currently designated employment areas of the City.

7.2 Employment on Employment Lands

In generating employment land area requirements for the City of Guelph, the following steps have been undertaken:

1. Remove Work at Home Employment and No Fixed Place of Work Employment

As identified in Chapter 6, employment growth has been categorized into four broad categories including: primary, industrial, commercial, and institutional, based on 2001 Census data. These categories have been aggregated from specific employment sub-classifications based on the North American Industrial Classification (NAIC) system.1 As a first step, all estimated “Work at Home” has been excluded from the employment land needs analysis, as these employees do not require land in the City’s designated employment areas. “No Fixed Place of Work Employees”, e.g. landscape contractors, traveling salespersons, independent truck drivers, etc., are also excluded from the employment on employment lands forecast. Similar to Work at Home employees, these employees are not anticipated to have an impact on long-term employment land needs in Guelph.

1 Employment by NAIC has been converted to Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) to be consistent with historical employment data (i.e. 1991 and 1996). Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx

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2. Determine the amount of industrial, commercial and institutional (ICI) employees to be employed on employment lands

As previously identified, current definitions of employment lands have broadened to include a number of commercial uses (and to a lesser extent institutional uses) in addition to traditional industrial development. For example, a number of commercial and institutional uses (as defined by Statistics Canada) are permitted on lands designated/zoned for industrial and corporate business park uses, which fall under the general employment lands category. Appendix E lists all non-industrial uses permitted in designated industrial and corporate business park lands.

Alternatively, a small portion of industrial employment (e.g. prestige office) is anticipated to locate on commercially designated zoned lands, i.e. business office and warehousing.1 A complete breakdown of employment by major sector (ICI) on employment is not available for the City of Guelph. However, the City has generated two sample inventories for the York/Watson Industrial Area and the Hanlon Business Park which identifies recent employment lands absorption by NAICS (North America Industry Classification System) code. This data provides insights into the types of employment sectors which have developed on these employment lands over the past 10+ years. Based on this information, as well as other available data sources in GTAH municipalities, a breakdown of future employment by major sector (ICI) on employment lands has been generated.2 Table 7-1a presents the percentage breakdown by major sector (ICI) on employment lands used for the forecast period (2006 to 2031).

Table 7-1b summarizes forecast employment on employment lands over the short-term and long-term forecast period, based on the conversion factors assigned to employment by ICI, as set out in Table 7-1a.

1 Section 7.7.4 of the City of Guelph OP states “Legally – existing industrial establishments not located within areas designated Industrial on Schedule 1 of this Plan shall be recognized as legal conforming uses, subject to the zoning provisions in effect at the time of passing of this Plan.” 2 It is important to note that W&A does not provide a specific employment category related to “Major Office” Employment (i.e. freestanding office buildings 10,000 m2 or greater, or with 500 jobs or more), as provided in P2G. For the purposes of this analysis, the majority of potential major office employment in Guelph would be located on employment lands. Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx

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TABLE 7-1a Percentage Industrial, Commercial and Institutional (ICI) Employment Growth On Vacant Employment Lands, 2006-2031

Percentage Employment on Employment Employment Sector Lands Industrial 98% Commercial 35% Institutional 10%

Based on permitted uses proposed in Guelph Zoning By-Law 1995-14864, plus a review of employment areas in other GGH jurisdictions.

3. Determine the Density of Employment on Employment Lands

As previously identified in Chapter 3, the Provincial Growth Plan identifies a density target of 50 jobs and residents per hectare for all new urban development constructed on designated greenfield lands. As directed by the Provincial Growth Plan, total density on greenfield lands is to be assessed on an upper or single tier municipality basis across the GGH. While it is beyond the scope of this analysis to specifically address the City’s ability to achieve the overall 50 jobs and residents per hectare target, considerable effort has been made to accurately identify an appropriate density target with respect to future development on employment lands.

The following identifies a number of factors which are anticipated to influence the physical nature of development on employment lands across the City of Guelph. These include:

• Higher density on Guelph employment lands could be achieved throughout the forecast period, largely due to the tightening of available employment land supply in the GTAH, and increasing pressure for intensification;

• An increasing trend of locating office commercial uses in newer business parks is also likely to provide higher density in employment areas with close proximity to Hwy 401, when compared to older, heavier, traditional industrial areas such as the North West Guelph Industrial Area; and

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx TABLE 7-1b SUMMARY OF EMPLOYMENT ON EMPLOYMENT LANDS, 2006-2031

Employment by SectorPercent on Total Employment Growth on Employment Lands

Employment Employment by ICI 2006-2011 2006-2016 2006-2021 2006-2026 2006-2031 Lands 2006-2011 2006-2016 2006-2021 2006-2026 2006-2031 Primary 0 -10 -20 -30 -50 0% 00000 Work @ Home 330 860 1,200 1,500 1,830 0% 00000 Industrial 3,540 6,150 8,320 10,200 11,690 98% 3,469 6,027 8,154 9,996 11,456 Commercial 1,200 3,660 5,980 8,000 10,360 35% 420 1,281 2,093 2,800 3,626 Institutional 1,570 3,440 5,100 6,670 8,230 10% 157 344 510 667 823 No Fixed Place of Work 70 150 230 290 350 0% 00000 Total 6,710 14,250 20,810 26,630 32,410 49% 4,046 7,652 10,757 13,463 15,905 Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2008. Numbers may not add precisely due to rounding.

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• Increases in industrial land values (which have recently been experienced in Guelph) will also tend to improve land utilization and increase employment density.

On the other hand, existing trends within GTAH and GGH “Outer Ring” municipalities indicate that employment density on employment lands has recently been, and will continue to be, heavily influenced by an increasing percentage of land-extensive users within the distribution and warehousing sector, which will tend to counter the above-identified trends towards higher employment density. For example, a number of recently approved development applications in the South Guelph Industrial Area are generating density levels far below what has previously been experienced in the Hanlon Business Park and York/Watson Industrial Area, as summarized in Chapter 4.

Given these factors, it is foreseeable that future densities on employment land in Guelph may be lower on average than existing densities achieved in the City’s active industrial/business parks if current market trends are to continue over the long term forecast period. Such market trends directly contradict the policy goals of the City and the Province which strive to achieve more compact urban development patterns. As such, it is recommended that the City of Guelph target a slightly higher density on employment lands (as compared to current market trends) for the purpose of long term employment lands needs analysis. A target density of 35 employees per net ha is recommended. Achieving the recommended density target would require:

1. more restrictive approvals regarding development on employment lands; 2. solutions which would maximize development on under-utilized employment lands; and 3. potential adjustments to current OP policy and zoning regarding permitted uses and development patterns on employment lands.

These issues will be further explored and tested in Phase 2 of the ELS. Table 7-2 summarizes the employment density for new employment which has been assumed over the forecast period for the City of Guelph.

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TABLE 7-2 FORECAST EMPLOYMENT DENSITY ON EMPLOYMENT LANDS, 2006-2031

Employees/Net Employees/Net Employees/ Employees/ Forecast Period Ha Acre Gross Ha Gross Acre 2006-2011 35 14 29 12 2006-2016 35 14 29 12 2006-2021 35 14 29 12 2006-2026 35 14 29 12 2006-2031 35 14 29 12 Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

4. Determine Net Developable Employment Land Supply over both Short-Term and Long-Term Forecast Period (Adjusted for Land Vacancy)

Chapter 5 provided a detailed analysis of the gross and net developable employment land supply (i.e. excluding all environmental lands, internal roads, corridors, easements and stormwater ponds) for the City of Guelph by Employment Area, as of October, 2006. The employment land supply analysis provided in Chapter 5 identified that within the City of Guelph, a large percentage of the identified “vacant” employment land supply is not readily available (i.e. lands have been sold and/or are not currently serviced). The current available serviced and for sale/lease employment land supply has been estimated at 64.1 net ha (158 net acres). Accordingly, the City’s ability to accommodate identified short-term demand will be contingent upon the short-term servicing assumptions (2008-2013) identified in Section 5.1.2.

5. Provide a Provision for Market Choice Over the Short-Term Employment Land Needs Forecast

Chapter 5 provided a detailed analysis with respect to the need to include a market choice provision, in order to ensure proper market functioning. As previously shown, a significant portion of the City’s vacant supply is presently not serviced, is not available on the market, or is currently tied up by existing land owners (i.e. being held for future expansion). In addition, many of the remaining parcels of land which are available for development are small, poorly configured, fragmented or have site contamination issues. While these observations largely apply to the North West Guelph Industrial Area, over time it is foreseeable that the City’s other employment areas will also begin to exhibit these characteristics. In order to allow for proper Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx

7-7 market functioning, it is our opinion that the City should ensure that a minimum five-year supply of serviced and available employment lands (by various sizes, zoning and locations) is available at all times throughout the forecast period. This is to ensure that the City’s employment demand is not unduly constrained by a lack of appropriately designated supply. Over the longer term period, a market contingency factor is not recommended as the City of Guelph should ensure that long-term employment land needs are being addressed through its five-year OP review.

6. Calculate Total Demand for Employment Lands Employment

Table 7-3 summarizes forecast demand for employment lands employment and associated land area requirements by Industrial Area/Park from 2006 to 2031, in accordance with the assumptions just set out through steps 1 through 5. Key observations include:

• Over the 2006 to 2031 planning period, the City of Guelph is forecast to add a total of 15,900 employees on employment lands (of which 1,600 will be accommodated through intensification);

• The City of Guelph is forecast to absorb an annual average of 16 net ha per year (40 net acres/year) from 2006 to 2031 (16 ha X 25 years = 410 (Table 7-3));1

• Average annual absorption rates are forecast to diminish over the forecast period. For Guelph this is largely a result of a declining employment growth rate (due to the aging of the labour force and increased product output) and a slight increase in employment density over the forecast period. Figure 7-1 summarizes forecast annual employment lands absorption for the City of Guelph from 2006 to 2031.

1 Absorption figures have been rounded. Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx TABLE 7-3 CITY OF GUELPH EMPLOYMENT ON EMPLOYMENT LANDS FORECAST, 2006-2031

Employment Industrial Commercial Total on Annual Annual Employees Employees Institutional Employment Intensification Employment Total Total Employment Employment on on Employees on on on Lands Employment Employment Land Land Employment Employment Employment Employment Employment Adjusted for Employees/ Employees/ Land Needs Land Needs Absorption Absorption 1 Growth Period Lands (98%) Lands (35%) Lands (10%) Lands Lands Intensification Net Acre Net Ha (Net Acres) (Net Ha) (Net Acres) (Net Ha) 2006-2011 3,473 420 157 4,049 405 3,644 14 35 258 104 52 21 2006-2016 6,027 1,280 344 7,650 765 6,885 14 35 487 197 49 20 2006-2021 8,157 2,092 510 10,760 1,076 9,684 14 35 685 277 46 18 2006-2026 9,996 2,798 667 13,461 1,346 12,115 14 35 857 347 43 17 2006-2031 11,453 3,627 823 15,903 1,590 14,313 14 35 1,012 410 40 16

Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 2007 1. An intensification target of 10% has been applied to existing employment lands over the 2006 to 2031 forecast period. Intensification assumption is based on the percentage of historical industrial building permit activity (i.e. 2002 to 2006) associated with expansions to existing facilities. A higher intensification target on employment lands will be difficult to achieve from a market perspective.

H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\Report Chapters\Guelph Emp Growth _169,000 Total

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FIGURE 7-1 CITY OF GUELPH HISTORICAL AND FORECAST ABSORPTION ON EMPLOYMENT LANDS, 1996-2031 (NET HECTARES) 35 30 29 23 25 21 21 21 21 21 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 18 17 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 15 11 11 10 8 Net Hectares 5 -

Year Historical Industrial Absorption Forecast Employment Lands Absorption Historical Ave. Absorption (1996-2005)

7.3 Employment Land Needs within the City of Guelph, 2006-2031

Table 7-4 provides a conceptual illustration of short and long-term land needs for employment on employment lands by industrial area/park based on forecast demand and net developable supply within the City of Guelph. The analysis identifies that if the City can achieve its target density of 35 employees per net ha there will be a surplus of employment lands by 2031. Further consideration with respect to the phasing of employment on employment land by industrial area/park will be provided in Phase 2. TABLE 7-4 CITY OF GUELPH DEMAND FOR EMPLOYMENT ON EMPLOYMENT LANDS BY EMPLOYMENT AREA/INDUSTRIAL BUSINESS PARK (NET HECTARES) Employment Area 2006-2011 2006-2016 2006-2021 2006-2026 2006-2031 Hanlon Business Park 4 4 4 4 4 Hanlon Creek Business Park 3 30 59 82 102 North West Guelph Industrial Area 0 6 16 20 21 South Guelph Industrial Area 97 147 158 176 185 York/Watson Industrial Area 0 10 24 27 29 York Innovation District 0 0 15 31 54 Urban Reserve Lands 0 0 0 0 0 Remaining Employment Lands 0 0 0 7 15 Unallocated 0000 0 Total 104 197 277 347 410 Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 2008

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Table 7-5 summarizes forecast employment land demand for the City of Guelph from 2006 to 2031. In accordance with the existing supply of developable vacant employment lands versus long-term demand, the City of Guelph has an adequate supply of employment lands to meet long-term needs. As of 2031, a net surplus of 238 ha (588 acres) has been identified. It should be noted that the long-term surplus includes approximately 154 net ha (381 net acres) of land identified within the York Innovation District.

TABLE 7-5 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT LAND NEEDS (DEMAND VS. SUPPLY), 2006-2031 (INCLUDING YORK INNOVATION DISTRICT)

Hectares Acres Land Area 2006-2011 2006-2021 2006-2031 2006-2011 2006-2021 2006-2031 Net Employment Land Demand 104 277 410 258 685 1012 Net Employment Land Supply 219 648 648 540 1600 1600 Net Employment Land Surplus/(Shortfall) 114 370 238 283 915 588 Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 2008.

As identified in Chapter 3 of this report, the future development potential of the Urban Reserve lands is uncertain at this time. If the Urban Reserve lands are excluded from the supply, the long-term surplus would be reduced by approximately 56 net ha (138 net acres).

Phase 2 of the ELS will further explore a number of issues related to density/land utilization, Official Plan policy, servicing, financing, phasing and marketing, to ensure that Guelph’s employment lands are developed in a manner which is consistent with the long term vision of the City and its local residents and businesses.

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7.4 Observations – Employment Land Needs Within the City of Guelph, 2006-2031

The analysis provided in this Chapter identifies a number of observations with respect to long- term employment land needs for the City of Guelph, including:

• Approximately 44% of forecast total employment growth for the City of Guelph from 2006 to 2031 is anticipated on employment lands;

• Forecast density on employment lands (i.e. employees/net hectare or acre) is projected to remain at 35 employees/net hectare (14 employees/net acre) from 2006 to 2031;

• Annual employment land absorption is forecast to be 16 net ha (40 net acres); and

• Total employment land needs are 410 net ha (1,012 net acres) from 2006 to 2031.

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx

8. CONCLUSIONS

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8. CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this report demonstrate that to 2031 employment growth pressures will continue to increase throughout the GGH “Outer Ring” as the supply of developable employment lands diminish within the more heavily urbanized municipalities of the GTAH (i.e. City of Toronto, City of Mississauga). At the local level, a number of economic drivers have been identified which will generate market demand for industrial/commercial development within the City of Guelph. Based on the analysis carried out in Chapters 1 through 7, the following conclusions have been made:

Employment Land Supply

• The City of Guelph has currently exhausted its supply of municipally-owned, serviced employment land; and

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Long-Term Employment Growth Outlook for the City of Guelph

• While Guelph’s share of employment growth within the GGH 1 market area has historically been relatively minimal, there are several factors which suggest that Guelph and the surrounding area will begin to take on a larger regional role, including:

Demand for Employment on Employment Lands

• Over the 2006 to 2031 planning period, the City of Guelph is forecast to add a total of 15,900 employees on employment lands (of which 1,600 will be accommodated through intensification);

1 The area comprises the municipalities which make up the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTAH), as well as the surrounding Regions/Counties within Central Ontario, known as the “Outer Ring,” which extend from Haldimand County in the southwest to Simcoe County in the north, to Peterborough County in the northeast. Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx

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warehousing sector, which will tend to stabilize or even reduce long-term density levels on employment lands;

• Over the 2006 to 2031 forecast period density levels on employment lands are forecast to average approximately 35 employees per net ha (14 employees/net acre);

• The City of Guelph is forecast to absorb an annual average of 16 net ha per year (60 net acres/year) from 2006 to 2031;

Future Employment Land Needs

• By 2031 a surplus of 238 net ha (588 net acres) has been identified in accordance with the employment growth forecast and land needs analysis in Chapters 6 and 7 of this report;

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx

APPENDIX A CITY OF GUELPH EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR, 1981-2001 NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMIT ANALYSIS, CITY OF GUELPH AND SURROUNDING MARKET AREA

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx TABLE A-1a EMPLOYMENT TO POPULATION RATIO BY MAJOR EMPLOYMENT SECTOR, 1996 AND 2001 CITY OF GUELPH

Year Year Change

1981 1991 1996 2001 96-91 01-96 01-06 Comments

Employment by industry

1.0 Primary Industry Employment Categories which relate to

1.1 All primary 425 695 595 280 -100 -315 local land-based resources.

Sub-total 425 695 595 280 -100 -315

2.0 Industrial and Other Employment

2.1 Manufacturing 13,205 13,040 16,615 19,965 3,575 3,350 Categories which relate

2.2 Wholesale trade 1,215 1,620 2,080 2,060 460 -20 primarily to industrial land

2.3 Construction 1,375 2,810 1,035 1,595 -1,775 560 supply and demand.

2.4 Transportation, storage, communication and other utility 1,871 2,285 1,625 2,370 -660 745

Sub-total 17,666 19,755 21,355 25,990 1,600 4,635

3.0 Population Related Employment

3.1 Retail trade 4,495 6,045 6,065 6,025 20 -40 Categories which relate

3.2 Finance, insurance, real estate operator and insurance agent 1,610 2,575 2,820 3,165 245 345 primarily to population

3.3 Business service 1,035 2,325 2,595 4,255 270 1,660 growth within the

3.4 Accommodation, food and beverage and other service 3,084 4,575 6,360 6,770 1,785 410 municipality.

Sub-total 10,224 15,520 17,840 20,215 2,320 2,375

4.0 Institutional

4.1 Government Service 1,970 3,115 2,280 2,670 -835 390

4.2 Education service, Health, Social Services 8,660 11,780 11,020 13,160 -760 2,140

Sub-total 10,630 14,895 13,300 15,830 -1,595 2,530

Total Employment 38,945 50,865 53,090 62,315 2,225 9,225

Population 87,976 95,821 106,170 7,845 10,349

Employment to Population Ratio

Industrial and Other Employment 0.22 0.22 0.24 0.00 0.02

Population Related Employment 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.01 0.00

Institutional Employment 0.17 0.14 0.15 -0.03 0.01

Primary Industry Employment 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total 0.58 0.55 0.59 -0.02 0.03

Source: Statistics Canada Employment by Place of Work

Note: Employment figures are classified by Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) Code

Watson & Associates Economists LTD H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\Guelph emp by sector TABLE A-1b CITY OF GUELPH NON- RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS (VALUE,(VALUE, $ MILLIONS) 1991- 2005

250,000

211,900

200,000

150,000 134,600 130,800

115,100

99,100 90,483 93,800 91,000 100,000 85,600

66,600 58,086 54,478 44,400 50,000 37,393 28,508

0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Commercial Industrial Institutional

Indexed to 2005$

Commercial Industrial Institutional Total Sub-total 1991-1995 142,100 58,030 68,818 268,948 Average 28,420 11,606 13,764 53,790 Percent Total By Sector 53% 22% 26% 100% Sub-total 1996-2000 121,200 129,600 160,100 410,900 Average 24,240 25,920 32,020 82,180 PercentPercent TotalTotal By Sector 29% 32% 39% 100% Sub-total 2001-2005 185,200 189,200 287,600 662,000 Average 37,040 37,840 57,520 132,400 Percent Total By Sector 28% 29% 43% 100%

Sub-total 1991-2005 448,500 376,830 516,518 1,341,848 Average 29,900 25,122 34,435 89,457 Percent Total By Sector 33% 28% 38% 100%

H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\Report Chapters\comparative Building permits TABLE A-2 WEST GTA NON- RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS (VALUE,(VALUE, $ MILLIONS) 1991- 2005

2,500,000

2,074,159

2,000,000 1,869,032 1,767,159 1,778,707

15705721,570,572 1,488,324 1,486,473 1,505,277 1,500,000 1,441,389

1,000,000 782,016 770,556 678,344 601,892 632,742 497,374 500,000

0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Commercial Industrial Institutional

Indexed to 2005$

Commercial Industrial Institutional Total Sub-total 1991-1995 1,231,163 1,193,642 859,776 3,284,580 Average 246,233 238,728 171,955 656,916 Percent Total By Sector 37% 36% 26% 100% Sub-total 1996-2000 3,909,673 1,959,250 1,727,409 7,596,332 Average 781,935 391,850 345,482 1,519,266 PercentPercent TotalTotal By Sector 51% 26% 23% 100% Sub-total 2001-2005 3,468,840 2,270,474 2,323,790 8,063,103 Average 693,768 454,095 464,758 1,612,621 Percent Total By Sector 43% 28% 29% 100%

Sub-total 1991-2005 8,609,675 5,423,366 4,910,974 18,944,015 Average 573,978 361,558 327,398 1,262,934 Percent Total By Sector 45% 29% 26% 100%

H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\Report Chapters\comparative Building permits TABLE A-3 CITY OF HAMILTON NON- RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS (VALUE,(VALUE, $ MILLIONS) 1991- 2005

500,000

442,160 450,000

400,000 375,151

350,000

292,012 293,274 300,000 275,463 256,653 250,000 199,234 189,172 182,629 200,000 170,902 153,103 140,777 143,909 129,227 150,000 121,854 100,000

50,000

0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Commercial Industrial Institutional

Indexed to 2005$ (Amalgamated Hamilton includes Ancaster, Dundas, Flamborough, Glanbrook, Hamilton, and Stoney Creek) Commercial Industrial Institutional Total Sub-total 1991-1995 318,916 172,090 273,251 764,257 Average 63,783 34,418 54,650 152,851 Percent Total By Sector 42% 23% 36% 100% Sub-total 1996-2000 392,033 284,084 358,674 1,034,790 Average 78,407 56,817 71,735 206,958 PercentPercent TotalTotal By Sector 38% 27% 35% 100% Sub-total 2001-2005 543,540 170,116 852,816 1,566,472 Average 108,708 34,023 170,563 313,294 Percent Total By Sector 35% 11% 54% 100%

Sub-total 1991-2005 1,254,489 626,290 1,484,740 3,365,519 Average 83,633 41,753 98,983 224,368 Percent Total By Sector 37% 19% 44% 100%

H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\Report Chapters\comparative Building permits

APPENDIX B PERMITTED USES ON “INDUSTRIAL” AND “CORPORATE BUSINESS PARK” LANDS

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SECTION 7 – INDUSTRIAL (B.1 to B.4) ZONES and CORPORATE BUSINESS PARK (B.5) ZONES

7.1 PERMITTED USES

The following are permitted Uses within the Industrial – (B.1, B.2, B.3, and B.4) Zones:

7.1.1 Industrial B.1 and B.2 Zones

Catering Service Cleaning Establishment Commercial School Computer Establishment Manufacturing Print Shop Repair Service Research Establishment 17187 Towing Establishment Tradesperson’s Shop Trucking Operation Warehouse

7.1.1.1 Office, Factory Sales Outlet, fleet servicing area and other Accessory Uses are permitted provided that such Use is subordinate, incidental and exclusively devoted to a permitted Use listed in Section 7.1.1 and provided that such Use complies with Section 4.23.

Temporary Uses including Agriculture (Vegetation Based), Outdoor Sportsfield Facilities, and driving range.

Malls Malls shall only be permitted in the B.2 Zone

15692 7.1.2 Industrial B.3 Zone

Manufacturing Warehouse

7.1.2.1 Office, Factory Sales Outlet, fleet servicing area and other Accessory Uses are permitted provided that such Use is subordinate, incidental and exclusively devoted to a permitted Use listed in Section 7.1.2 and provided that such Use complies with Section 4.23.

Temporary Uses including Agriculture (Vegetation Based), Outdoor Sportsfield Facilities, and driving range. 7-2

Malls All Uses listed in Section 7.1.2 and the following: Catering Service Cleaning Establishment Commercial Entertainment/Recreation Centre (excluding movie theatres, bowling alleys and roller rinks) 15378 Commercial School 15378 Computer Establishment

Financial Establishment Industrial or construction equipment rental or sales firm Office Office Supply Personal Service Establishment Photofinishing Place Print Shop Repair Service 15378 Research Establishment Restaurant Tradesperson’s Shop Vehicle Specialty Repair Shop

7.1.3 Industrial B.4 Zone Catering Service Cleaning Establishment Contractor's Yard Manufacturing Repair Service 17187 Towing Establishment Tradesperson's Shop Trucking Operation Veterinary Service Warehouse

7.1.3.1 Office, Factory Sales Outlet, fleet servicing area and other Accessory Uses are permitted provided that such Use is subordinate, incidental and exclusively devoted to a permitted Use listed in Section 7.1.3 and provided that such Use complies with Section 4.23.

Temporary Uses including Agriculture (Vegetation Based), Outdoor Sportsfield Facilities, and driving range.

Malls All Uses listed in Section 7.1.3 and the following: Commercial Entertainment/Recreation Centre (excluding theatres, bowling alleys and roller rinks) 7-3

15378 Commercial School 15378 Computer Establishment

Display and retail sales of appliances, furniture and other household furnishings, hardware, and home improvement materials Financial Establishment Industrial or construction equipment rental or sales firm Office Office Supply Personal Service Establishment Photofinishing Place Print Shop 15378 Research Establishment Restaurant Vehicle Specialty Repair

17187 7.2 PROHIBITED USES

Within the Industrial (B) Zones, any trade, business, manufacturer and related uses deemed offensive or noxious by the Environmental Protection Act R.S.O. 1990, Chapter E.19, as amended from time to time or any successor thereof, shall be prohibited.

7.3 REGULATIONS

Within the Industrial (B) Zones, no land shall be Used and no Building or Structure shall be erected or Used except in conformity with the applicable regulations contained in Section 4 - General Provisions, the regulations set out in Table 7.3 and the following:

7.3.1 Minimum Side and Rear Yards Despite Row 4 and 5 of Table 7.3, when any Industrial Zone abuts a Residential, Urban Reserve, or Park Zone the minimum Side or Rear Yard shall be 10 metres or one-half the Building Height, whichever is greater.

Where an Industrial Zone abuts a rail spur right-of-way, no Side or Rear Yard is required.

7.3.2 Accessory Uses Despite Row 6 of Table 7.3, within the B.2 Zone, the maximum area for an Accessory Use in a Mall shall be determined on the basis of the Gross Floor Area of each individual unit in the Mall and not the Gross Floor Area of the entire Building.

7.3.3 Off-Street Loading Space Requirements - B.1 and B.2 Zones 7-4

No Loading Space shall be located in the Front Yard or Exterior Side Yard or any Yard between a Lot Line abutting Hanlon Road or Hanlon Parkway and the nearest wall of the Main Building on the same Lot. A landscaped strip consisting of trees, shrubbery and/or berms shall screen the Loading Space so that it is not visible from any public Street.

7.3.4 Determination of Accessory Use Gross Floor Area When determining the Gross Floor Area for Accessory Uses within the B Zones, the Gross Floor Area designed for staff facilities such as washrooms, staff rooms, staff recreation facilities, and Day Care Centres shall not be included in the calculation of Accessory Use Gross Floor Area.

7.3.5 Minimum Building Size Requirements

7.3.5.1 B.1 and B.2 Zones For properties within the B.1 and B.2 Zones, the following minimum Building sizes shall be required: - 10 per cent of the Lot Area for Lots 3 acres or less in size, but in no case less than 464.5 m2. - 15 per cent of the Lot Area for Lots between 3-10 acres in size. - 20 per cent of the Lot Area for Lots over 10 acres.

7.3.5.2 B.3 and B.4 Zones Within the B.3 and B.4 Zones, the following minimum Building size requirements shall apply: - New industrial development - 464.5 m2 Ground Floor Area - New industrial Mall Development - 1,115 m2 and not less than 464.5 m2 in the initial phase of construction provided the remaining 650.5 m2 is shown on the approved site plan.

7.3.6 Additional Outdoor Storage Regulations - B.1 and B.2 Zones Outdoor Storage Areas shall be Used only for the storage of:

7.3.6.1 goods or products Manufactured, processed or assembled on site;

7.3.6.2 raw materials or parts Used in the Manufacturing of products produced on site;

7.3.6.3 equipment Used in operation on or from the site; and/or

7.3.6.4 shipping containers or devices.

7.3.7 Additional Building Height Regulations - B.1 Zone In addition to all other provisions of the Industrial B Zones, Buildings or Structures more than 133.2 metres north-east of the Watson Road 7-5

Street allowance as shown on Defined Area Map Number 58, shall not exceed a height of 9 metres, and rooftop appurtenance thereto shall not exceed a height of 3 metres above the roof line.

7.3.8 Specific Trucking Operation Regulations for the B.1 Zone A Trucking Operation shall be a permitted Use on the property registered as Part 1, Registered Reference Plan 61R-3662 and shall be subject to the following exceptions and additions:

7.3.8.1 Despite Section 4.13.2.4, Vehicles operated commercially from the transportation operation Use may not be stored or parked in the area designated as Front Yard or Exterior Side Yard.

7.3.8.2 Despite Section 4.13.3, fleet Vehicle storage areas need not have Parking Spaces delineated.

7.3.9 Additional Loading Space Requirements in all B Zones In addition to Section 4.14, within Industrial (B) Zones adequate space shall be provided on-site for the temporary parking of vehicles awaiting access to Loading Spaces, exclusive of areas Used for parking or storage, and Loading Space access areas shall be designed to avoid interference with the normal Use of the Street and with internal on-site Vehicle circulation.

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15006 TABLE 7.3 - REGULATIONS GOVERNING INDUSTRIAL (B) ZONES 1 Zones B.1 B.2 B.3 B.4 2 Minimum Lot 30 metres Frontage 3 Minimum Front 6 metres and in accordance with Section 4.24. and Exterior Side Yard 4 Minimum Side One-half the Building Height but not less One-half the Building Height to a Yard than 6 metres and in accordance with Section maximum of 9 metres, but not less than 3 7.3.1. metres and in accordance with Section 7.3.1. 5 Minimum Rear 6 metres and in accordance with Section 7.3.1. Yard 6 Accessory Uses Not more than 25% of the Building floor area shall be Used for any Accessory Use permitted in a B Zone. See Section 7.3.2 for regulations governing Malls in the B.2 Zone. 7 Off-Street In accordance with Section 4.13. Parking 8 Off-Street In accordance with Sections 4.14, 7.3.3 and In accordance with Sections 4.14 and Loading 7.3.9. 7.3.9. 9 Outdoor Storage In accordance with Sections 4.12.2 and 7.3.6. In accordance with Section 4.12.2. 10 Minimum The required Front and Exterior Side Yard on any Lot, excepting the Driveway, Parking Landscaped Areas, or loading areas, shall be landscaped. Open Space 11 Buffer Strips Where a B Zone abuts any Residential, Institutional, Park, Wetland, or Urban Reserve Zone, a Buffer Strip shall be developed. 12 Maximum 20 metres and in 20 metres and in accordance with Section 4.18. Building Height accordance with Sections 4.18 and 7.3.7. 13 Fences In accordance with Section 4.20.

14 Garbage, Refuse In accordance with Section 4.9. Storage and Composters 15 Maximum Public None permitted. A maximum of A maximum of 50% Floor Space 30% of the Gross of the Gross Floor Floor Area of an Area of an industrial mall industrial Mall Building may be Building may be Used for display Used for display and sales areas or and sales areas or assembly assembly occupancies open occupancies open to the public. In to the public. In the the case of phased case of phased construction, not construction, not more than 30% of more than 50% of the actual area the actual area shall shall be Used for be Used for display display and sales and sales area or area or public public assembly assembly occupancies at any occupancies at time. any time. 16 Minimum In accordance with Section 7.3.5. Building Size Requirements

17 Accessory In accordance with Section 4.5. Despite Section 4.5.2.2, within the B.3 and Buildings or B.4 Zones, accessory Buildings or Structures Structures may be constructed to the height of the Main Building.

7-7

17698 7.4 B.5 (Corporate Business Park) Zone

7.4.1 Permitted Uses

Catering Service Commercial School Computer Establishment Hotel Laboratory Mall Manufacturing (entirely within a building) Medical Clinic Medical Office Office Post Secondary School Print Shop Public Hall Research Establishment Trade and Conventions Facilities Veterinary Service Warehouse (entirely within a building)

7.4.2 Accessory Uses

Including but not limited to, Factory Sales Outlet, Recreation Centre, Restaurant are permitted provided that such use is subordinate, incidental and exclusively devoted to a permitted use and complies with Section 4.23.

7.4.3 Prohibited Uses

Any trade, business, manufacturer and related uses deemed offensive or noxious by the Environmental Protection Act, as amended from time to time, or any successor thereof, shall be prohibited. Abattoir Bulk Storage of Petroleum Products Contractor’s Yard Meat Processing Plant Repair Service Sanitary Landfill Site Tradespersons’ Shop Towing Establishment Trucking Operation Waste Transfer Station

7-8

7.4.4 Regulations

Within the Corporate Business Park (B.5) Zones, no land shall be used and no Building or Structure shall be erected or Used except in conformity with the applicable regulations contained in Section 4 – General Provisions, the regulations set out in Table 7.4 and the following:

7.4.4.1. Minimum Side and Rear Yards

Despite Row 4 and Row 5 of Table 7.4, where any Corporate Business Park Zone abuts a Residential, Urban Reserve, or Park Zone the Minimum Side or Rear Yard shall be 10 metres.or one-half the Building height, whichever is greater.

Notwithstanding the minimum Side and Rear Yards the minimum setback from the Hanlon Expressway shall be 14 metres.

Where a B.5 Corporate Business Park Zone abuts a rail spur right-of-way, no Side or Rear Yard is required.

- 7.4.4.2. Accessory Uses

Despite Row 6 of Table 7.4, with B.5 Zones, the maximum area for an Accessory Use in a Mall shall be determined in the basis of the Gross Floor Area of each individual unit in the Mall and not the Gross Floor Area of the entire Building.

7.4.4.3. Off-Street Loading Space Requirements – B.5 Zones

No Loading Spaces shall be located in the Front Yard or Exterior Side Yard or any Yard between a Lot Line abutting Hanlon Road or Hanlon Parkway and the nearest wall of the Main Building on the same Lot. A landscaped strip consisting of trees, shrubbery and/or berms shall screen the Loading Space so that it is not visible from any public Street.

In addition to Section 4.14, within Corporate Business Park Zone (B.5) Zones adequate space shall be provided on-site for the temporary parking of vehicles awaiting access to Loading Spaces, exclusive of areas used for parking or storage, and Loading Space access areas shall be designed to avoid interference with the normal Use of the Street and with internal on-site vehicle circulation.

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7.4.4.4 Minimum Building Size Requirements

For properties within the B.5 zone, the following minimum building sizes shall be required:

-10 per cent of the Lot Area for Lots 3 acres or less in size, but in no case less than 464.5 m2 -15 per cent of the Lot Area for Lots between 3-10 acres in size -20 per cent of the Lot Area for Lots over 10 acres.

7.4.4.5 For ‘manufacturing’ and ‘mall’, the following parking requirements shall apply: -1 parking space per 50 square metres up to 1,000 square metres of gross floor area. -1 parking space per 100 square metres between 1,000 square metres and 5,000 square metres of gross floor area, and -1 parking space per 150 square metres over 5,000 square metres of gross floor area.

7-10

TABLE 7.4 - REGULATIONS GOVERNING CORPORATE BUSINESS PARK (B.5) ZONES

1 ZoneS B.5 2 Minimum Lot 30 metres Frontage 3 Minimum Front 6 metres and in accordance with Section 4.24. and Exterior Side Yard 4 Minimum Side 6 metres and in accordance with Section 7.4.4.1 Yard 5 Minimum Rear 6 metres and in accordance with Section 7.4.4.1. Yard 6 Accessory Uses Not more than 25% of the Building floor area shall be Used for any Accessory Uses permitted in a B.5 Zone and in accordance with Section 7.4.4.2. 7 Off-Street In accordance with Section 4.13. In addition to Section 4.13.3.3, all parking and driveway Parking areas shall have an impervious or paved surface. Further, in spite of Section 4.13.2.4.1. no Parking Area shall be located within 6 metres of a Street Line. 8 Off-Street In accordance with Sections 4.14 and 7.4.4.3 Loading 9 Outdoor Storage Prohibited 10 Minimum 15% of the lot area. Landscaped The required minimum 6 metre front and exterior side yard on any lot except the driveway Open Space shall be landscaped. Further, a minimum landscaped area 9.0 metres in width shall be provided along any lot line directly facing the Hanlon Expressway. 11 Buffer Strips Where a B.5 Zone abuts any Residential, Institutional, Wetland, or Urban Reserve Zone, a Buffer Strip shall be developed. 12 Maximum 20 metres, with exception of a hotel which is permitted a maximum building height of 32 Building Height metres and in accordance with Section 4.18. 13 Fences In accordance with Section 4.20.

14 Garbage, Refuse In accordance with Section 4.9. Storage and Composters 15 Maximum Public A maximum of 30% of the Gross Floor Area of an industrial mall building may be used for Floor Space display and sales areas or assembly occupancies open to the public. In the case of phased construction, not more than 30% of the actual area shall be used for display and sales area of public assembly occupancies at any time. 16 Minimum In accordance with Section 7.4.4.4 Building Size Requirements

17 Accessory In accordance with Section 4.5. Buildings or Despite Section 4.5.2.2, within B.5 Zones, accessory buildings or structures may be Structures constructed to the height of the Main Building.

APPENDIX C CITY OF GUELPH SITE-BY-SITE EMPLOYMENT LAND SUPPLY INVENTORY

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx TABLE C-1 CITY OF GUELPH INVENTORY OF EMPLOYMENT LANDS SUPPLY BY BUSINESS PARK/EMPLOYMENT AREA

Gross to Net TOTAL Net of Adjustment for Net Area Adjusted for Traffic Business Park Name/ GROSS Area w/out GROSS Envrio Environmental Address OP Land Use Zoning GROSS Environmental Servicing Environmental Constraints Zone Employment Area Constraints (Ha.) Constraint Area (Ha.) Constraints 2 Area (Ha.) Constraints Infrastructure and Gross to Net (Ha.) (17%) 1 Hanlon Business Park 45 Rutherford Crt 20 Industrial Hanlon Business Park B.1 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 Hanlon Business Park 70 Southgate Dr 20 Industrial B.1 2.1 0.0 2.1 2.1 115 Southgate Dr 20 Industrial Hanlon Business Park B.1 1.1 0.0 1.1 1.1 250 Southgate Dr 20 Industrial Hanlon Business Park B.1, B.2 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 Hanlon Business Park 145 Southgate Dr 20 Industrial B.2 1.2 0.0 1.2 1.2 150 Southgate Dr 20 Industrial Hanlon Business Park B.1, B.2 0.8 0.0 0.8 0.8 Hanlon Business Park 225 Southgate Dr 20 Industrial B.2 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 325 Southgate Dr 20 Industrial Hanlon Business Park B.2 0.9 0.0 0.9 0.9 Kirkby Crt, east of 56 Kirkby 20 Industrial, Non-Core Greenland Hanlon Business Park B.1 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 Laird Rd/ Southgate Dr corner lot, west of 56 Kirkby 20 Industrial, Non-Core Greenland Hanlon Business Park B.1, B.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 375 Southgate Dr 20 Industrial, Non-Core Greenland Hanlon Business Park B.1 2.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 Hanlon Business Park Total 12.4 0.0 2.3 1.2 11.3 0.0 11.3

H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\Report Chapters\Guelph Emp Growth _169,000 Total Gross to Net TOTAL Net of Adjustment for Net Area Adjusted for Traffic Business Park Name/ GROSS Area w/out GROSS Envrio Environmental Address OP Land Use Zoning GROSS Environmental Servicing Environmental Constraints Zone Employment Area Constraints (Ha.) Constraint Area (Ha.) Constraints 2 Area (Ha.) Constraints Infrastructure and Gross to Net (Ha.) (17%) 1

Hanlon Creek Business Park 0.0 277 McWilliams Rd 48 Corporate Business Park Hanlon Creek Business Park B.5-5 2.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 Hanlon Creek Business Park 881 Laird Rd 48 Corporate Business Park B.5-1 (H) 4.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 306 Downey Rd 48 Corporate Business Park Hanlon Creek Business Park B.5-5 1.8 0.0 1.8 1.8 306 Downey Rd 48 Corporate Business Park Hanlon Creek Business Park B.5-5 6.0 0.0 6.0 6.0 306 Downey Rd 48 Corporate Business Park Hanlon Creek Business Park B.5-3 3.1 0.0 3.1 3.1 306 Downey Rd 48 Corporate Business Park Hanlon Creek Business Park B.5-3 2.3 0.0 2.3 2.3 277 McWilliams Rd 48 Corporate Business Park Hanlon Creek Business Park B.5-5 3.7 0.0 3.7 3.7 277 McWilliams Rd 48 Corporate Business Park Hanlon Creek Business Park B.5-4 3.8 0.0 3.8 3.8 277 McWilliams Rd 48 Corporate Business Park Hanlon Creek Business Park B.5-4 2.2 0.0 2.2 2.2 277 McWilliams Rd 48 Corporate Business Park Hanlon Creek Business Park B.5-2 2.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 277 McWilliams Rd 48 Corporate Business Park Hanlon Creek Business Park B.5-2 3.1 0.0 3.1 3.1 Hanlon Creek Business Park 902 Laird Rd 48 Corporate Business Park B.5-1 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 570 Downey Rd 48 Corporate Business Park Hanlon Creek Business Park B.5 (H23) 0.6 0.0 0.6 0.6 306 Downey Rd 48 Corporate Business Park Hanlon Creek Business Park B.5 0.7 0.0 0.7 0.7 570 Downey Rd 48 Corporate Business Park Hanlon Creek Business Park B.5 (H23) 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 Hanlon Creek Business Park 788 Laird Rd 48 Corporate Business Park B.5 0.7 0.0 0.7 0.7 475 McWilliams Rd 48 Corporate Business Park Hanlon Creek Business Park B.5 3.6 0.0 3.6 3.6 475 McWilliams Rd 48 Corporate Business Park Hanlon Creek Business Park B.5-5 1.5 0.0 1.5 1.5 277 McWilliams Rd 48 Corporate Business Park Hanlon Creek Business Park B.5-5 1.7 0.0 1.7 1.7 277 McWilliams Rd 48 Corporate Business Park Hanlon Creek Business Park B.5-5 1.2 0.0 1.2 1.2 630 Laird Rd 48 Corporate Business Park Hanlon Creek Business Park B.5 (H23) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 475 McWilliams Rd 48 Corporate Business Park Hanlon Creek Business Park B.5 6.9 0.0 6.9 6.9 233-341 Forestell Rd 48 Corporate Business Park Hanlon Creek Business Park B.5 4.7 0.0 4.7 4.7 630 Laird Rd/ 233-341 Forestell Rd 48 Corporate Business Park Hanlon Creek Business Park B.5 (H23) 11.6 0.0 11.6 11.6 630 Laird Rd/ 233-341 Forestell Rd 48 Corporate Business Park Hanlon Creek Business Park B.5 (H23) 5.4 0.0 5.4 5.4 630 Laird Rd/ 233-341 Forestell Rd 48 Corporate Business Park Hanlon Creek Business Park B.5 0.6 0.0 0.6 0.6 475 McWilliams Rd 48 Corporate Business Park Hanlon Creek Business Park B.5 3.2 0.0 3.2 3.2 233-341 Forestell Rd 48 Industrial Hanlon Creek Business Park B.2-6 6.5 0.0 6.5 6.5 233-341 Forestell Rd 48 Industrial Hanlon Creek Business Park B.2-4 10.6 0.0 10.6 10.6 233-341 Forestell Rd 48 Industrial Hanlon Creek Business Park B.2-6 (H) 1.4 0.0 1.4 1.4 570 Downey Rd 48 Industrial Hanlon Creek Business Park B.2-6 (H) 5.8 0.0 5.8 5.8 233-341 Forestell Rd 48 Industrial Hanlon Creek Business Park B.2-6 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 570 Downey Rd 48 Industrial Hanlon Creek Business Park B.2-4 (H) 2.1 0.0 2.1 2.1 233-341 Forestell Rd 48 Industrial Hanlon Creek Business Park B.2-6 3.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 233-341 Forestell Rd 48 Industrial Hanlon Creek Business Park B.2-6 3.9 0.0 3.9 3.9 233-341 Forestell Rd 48 Industrial Hanlon Creek Business Park B.2-6 7.6 0.0 7.6 7.6 630 Laird Rd 48 Industrial Hanlon Creek Business Park B.2-4 (H) 9.3 0.0 9.3 9.3 233-341 Forestell Rd 48 Industrial Hanlon Creek Business Park B.2-4 5.1 0.0 5.1 5.1 570 Downey Rd 48 Industrial Hanlon Creek Business Park B.2-6 (H) 5.8 0.0 5.8 5.8 233-341 Forestell Rd 48 Industrial Hanlon Creek Business Park B.2-6 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 233-341 Forestell Rd 48 Industrial Hanlon Creek Business Park B.2-6 2.2 0.0 2.2 2.2 630 Laird Rd 48 Industrial Hanlon Creek Business Park B.2-6 (H) 5.1 0.0 5.1 5.1 630 Laird Rd 48 Industrial Hanlon Creek Business Park B.2-6 4.9 0.0 4.9 4.9 233-341 Forestell Rd 48 Industrial Hanlon Creek Business Park B.2-5 0.9 0.0 0.9 0.9 Hanlon Creek Business Park Total (Ha) 152.6 0.0 152.6 0.0 152.6

North West Guelph Industrial Area 0.0 199 Woodlawn Rd W 36 Industrial, Non-Core Greenland North West Guelph Industrial AreaB.4 15.6 8.4 7.2 3.6 12.0 12.0 Monarch Rd/ westend of Curtis Dr 46 Industrial North West Guelph Industrial AreaB.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 Monarch Rd/ westend of Curtis Dr 46 Industrial North West Guelph Industrial AreaB.4 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.3 North West Guelph Industrial Area north of Curtis Dr 46 Industrial B.4 1.9 0.0 1.9 1.9 North West Guelph Industrial Area Slvercreek Pky N / north of railroad track 46 Industrial B.4 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.3 North West Guelph Industrial Area south of Curtis Dr 46 Industrial B.4 1.4 0.0 1.4 1.4 North West Guelph Industrial Area south of Curtis Dr 46 Industrial B.4 1.1 0.0 1.1 1.1 North West Guelph Industrial Area 642 & 660 Silvercreek Pky N 46 Industrial B.4 2.4 0.0 2.4 2.4 81 Royal Rd 46 Industrial North West Guelph Industrial AreaB.3 3.6 0.0 3.6 3.6 North West Guelph Industrial Area 94 Curtis Dr 46 Industrial B.4 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 Cope Crt. 47 Industrial North West Guelph Industrial AreaB.2 3.1 0.0 3.1 3.1 northwest Speevale W/ Elmira N/ Independence Pl 47 Industrial, Non-Core Greenland North West Guelph Industrial AreaB.4 12.0 4.0 8.1 4.0 8.0 8.0 55 Wilbert St. 47 Industrial, North West Guelph Industrial AreaB.2 2.7 0.0 2.7 2.7 southwest Woodlawn Rd W/ Minto Rd 47 Industrial, Non-Core Greenland North West Guelph Industrial AreaB.3, B.4 8.5 7.8 0.7 0.4 8.2 8.2 west end of Massey Rd 47 Industrial, Non-Core Greenland North West Guelph Industrial AreaB.4 4.4 4.1 0.3 0.1 4.3 4.3 63 Woodlawn Rd W 34 Industrial, Non-Core Greenland North West Guelph Industrial AreaUR, SC.2-7 1.3 0.0 1.3 1.3 Imperial Rd N 46 Industrial, Non-Core Greenland Industrial B.4 0.93 0.0 0.9 0.9 235 Curtis Dr 47 Industrial, Non-Core Greenland Industrial, Non-Core Greenland B.4 1.21 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.9 0.9 Cope Crt. 47 Industrial, Non-Core Greenland Industrial B.2 3.13 0.0 3.1 3.1 North West Guelph Industrial Area Total (Ha) 64.6 8.5 56.2 56.2

South Guelph Industrial Area 0.0 Corporate Business Park, Non-Core South Guelph Industrial Area 2021 Gordon St 49 Greenland refer to Puslinch Township 7.4 0.2 7.2 3.6 3.8 3.8 Corporate Business Park, Non-Core 132 Clair Rd W 49 South Guelph Industrial Area UR, Puslinch zoning 28.9 16.2 12.7 Greenland 6.3 22.6 22.6 Corporate Business Park, Non-Core South Guelph Industrial Area 2129 Gordon St 49 Greenland refer to Puslinch Township 3.5 3.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 3.2 Corporate Business Park, Non-Core South Guelph Industrial Area 2093 Gordon St 49 Greenland refer to Puslinch Township 8.8 7.9 0.9 0.5 8.4 8.4 348 Crawley Rd 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area UR 2.8 0.0 2.8 2.8 385 Maltby Rd W 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area UR 2.2 0.0 2.2 2.2 385/ 519 Maltby Rd W 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area UR 1.4 0.0 1.4 1.4 394 Clair Rd W 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area B.1(H9) 2.3 0.0 2.3 2.3 372-416 Crawley Rd 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area UR 4.4 0.0 4.4 4.4 452 Crawley Rd 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area UR 6.9 0.0 6.9 6.9 62-88 Crawley Rd 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area UR 2.3 0.0 2.3 2.3 385 Maltby Rd W 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area UR 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 385 Maltby Rd W 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area UR 5.4 0.0 5.4 5.4 385 Maltby Rd W 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area UR 2.6 0.0 2.6 2.6 385 Maltby Rd W 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area UR 1.1 0.0 1.1 1.1 385 Maltby Rd W 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area UR 1.8 0.0 1.8 1.8 945 Southgate Dr 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area B.1 12.6 0.0 12.6 12.6 394 Clair Rd W 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area B.1(H9) 5.0 0.0 5.0 5.0 394 Clair Rd W 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area B.1(H9) 3.5 0.0 3.5 3.5 348 Crawley Rd 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area UR 3.1 0.0 3.1 3.1 408 Crawley Rd 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area UR 4.4 0.0 4.4 4.4 200 & 264 Crawley Rd 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area UR, B.1 (H10) 1.1 0.0 1.1 1.1 264 Crawley Rd 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area B.1 (H10 23.1 0.0 23.1 23.1 385 Maltby Rd W 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area UR 4.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 385 Maltby Rd W 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area UR 2.7 0.0 2.7 2.7 385 Maltby Rd W 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area UR 2.6 0.0 2.6 2.6 385 Maltby Rd W 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area UR 3.5 0.0 3.5 3.5 385 Maltby Rd W 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area UR 1.2 0.0 1.2 1.2 385 Maltby Rd W 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area UR 3.1 0.0 3.1 3.1 385 Maltby Rd W 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area UR 2.9 0.0 2.9 2.9 264 Crawley Rd 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area UR, B.2 (H11) 8.8 0.0 8.8 8.8 264 Crawley Rd 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area B.2 (H11) 6.5 0.0 6.5 6.5 264 Crawley Rd 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area B.2 (H11) 3.3 0.0 3.3 3.3 264 Crawley Rd 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area B.2 (H11) 7.8 0.0 7.8 7.8 264 Crawley Rd 49 Industrial South Guelph Industrial Area B.2 (H11) 3.7 0.0 3.7 3.7 2021 Gordon St 49 Industrial, Non-Core Greenland South Guelph Industrial Area refer to Puslinch zoning 10.5 5.3 5.3 1.8 3.4 148 Crawley Rd + vacant land north of 148 Crawley 49 Industrial, Non-Core Greenland South Guelph Industrial Area UR 0.7 4.0 2.0 2.0 1.3 132 Clair Rd W 49 Industrial, Non-Core Greenland South Guelph Industrial Area refer to Puslinch zoning 3.9 2.0 2.0 0.7 1.3 2093 Gordon St 49 Industrial, Non-Core Greenland South Guelph Industrial Area refer to Puslinch 10.4 3.1 7.3 3.7 6.7 6.7 2187 Gordon St 49 Industrial, Non-Core Greenland South Guelph Industrial Area refer to Puslinch 4.6 0.8 3.8 1.9 2.7 2.7

Corporate Business Park, Non-Core 13.6 12.7 0.9 2.3 2162 Gordon St 50 Greenland - Corporate Business Park Urban Reserve Land refer to Puslinch zoning 0.5 13.1 10.8 South Guelph Industrial Park Total (Ha) 232.2 25.9 206.3 5.5 200.8

York/Watson Industrial Area west of Watson Rd S 1 Industrial York/Watson Industrial Area B.1 0.6 0.0 0.6 0.6 York/Watson Industrial Area 1123 York Rd 1 Industrial B.1 1.5 0.0 1.5 1.5 York/Watson Industrial Area 236 Watson Rd S 1 Industrial UR 13.9 0.0 13.9 13.9 York/Watson Industrial Area 32 Watson Pkwy S 1 Industrial B.1 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 York/Watson Industrial Area south of Airpark Pl 1 Industrial B.1 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 410 Watson Rd S 1 Industrial York/Watson Industrial Area UR 5.2 0.0 5.2 5.2 north of Airpark Pl 1 Industrial York/Watson Industrial Area B.1 0.9 0.0 0.9 0.9 west of Watson Pky S 1 Industrial, Non-Core Greenland York/Watson Industrial Area B.1 12.1 1.5 10.6 5.3 6.8 6.8 Watson Rd N/ north of CNR 2 Industrial, Non-Core Greenland York/Watson Industrial Area B.3-7 4.1 3.4 0.7 0.3 3.8 3.8 SE corner of Watson Pky S 1 Industrial York/Watson Industrial Area I.2 1.4 0.0 1.4 1.4

York/Watson Industrial Area Total (Ha) 41.7 4.9 11.3 5.6 36.1 0.0 36.1 York Innovation District Area Major Institutional, Special Study, Non- Turf Grass Institute Lands2 1 York/Watson Industrial Area I.2 77.3 96.7 10.7 13.1 Core Greenland 5.3 72.0 58.9 Special Study Area York/Watson Industrial Area I.2 9.9 1.7 588 Stone Rd E 1 0.0 9.9 8.2 Special Study Area, Non-Core 527-717 Stone Rd E/ 728-760 Victoria Rd S 1 York/Watson Industrial Area I.2, UR, UR-2 23.0 16.0 7.0 3.9 Greenland 3.5 19.5 15.6 Special Study Area, Non-Core York/Watson Industrial Area I.2 93.7 90.4 3.3 15.9 785 York Rd (former Reformatory Lands) 1 Greenland 1.7 92.1 76.1 Special Study Area, Non-Core 721 Stone Rd. E 1 York/Watson Industrial Area UR 8.1 1.4 Greenland 4.0 4.0 2.7

York Innovation District Total (Ha) 212. 0 14. 5 197. 5 36. 0 161. 4

H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\Report Chapters\Guelph Emp Growth _169,000 Total.xlsx Gross to Net TOTAL Net of Adjustment for Net Area Adjusted for Traffic Business Park Name/ GROSS Area w/out GROSS Envrio Environmental Address OP Land Use Zoning GROSS Environmental Servicing Environmental Constraints Zone Employment Area Constraints (Ha.) Constraint Area (Ha.) Constraints 2 Area (Ha.) Constraints Infrastructure and Gross to Net (Ha.) (17%) 1 Urban Reserve Lands Reserve Lands - Corporate Business 2301Gordon St 49 see Puslinch zoning 3.3 0.6 Park Urban Reserve Land 1.7 1.7 1.1 99 Maltby Rd W 49 see Puslinch zoning 13.7 2.3 Reserve Lands - Industrial Urban Reserve Land 6.9 6.9 4.5 Reserve Lands, Non-Core Greenland 99 Maltby Rd W 49 see Puslinch zoning 16.2 6.8 9.5 2.8 - Industrial Urban Reserve Land 4.7 11.5 8.7 Reserve Lands, Non-Core Greenland 2187 Gordon St 49 see Puslinch zoning 18.1 5.8 12.3 3.1 - Industrial Urban Reserve Land 6.2 11.9 8.9 Reserve Lands, Non-Core Greenland 2187 Gordon St 49 see Puslinch zoning 11.9 0.8 11.1 2.0 - Corporate Business Park Urban Reserve Land 5.6 6.4 4.3 Reserve Lands, Non-Core Greenland 2143 Gordon St 49 see Puslinch zoning 3.3 1.3 2.0 0.6 - Corporate Business Park Urban Reserve Land 1.0 2.3 1.7 0.1 2106 Gordon St 50 Corporate Business Park Urban Reserve Land refer to Puslinch Township 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.3

Reserve Lands - Corporate Business 2270 Gordon St 50 see Puslinch zoning 38.6 6.6 Park Urban Reserve Land 19.3 19.3 12.7 Reserve Lands, Non-Core Greenland 2216 Gordon St 50 see Puslinch zoning 0.3 0.0 - Corporate Business Park Urban Reserve Land 0.1 0.1 0.1 Reserve Lands, Non-Core Greenland 2162 Gordon St 50 see Puslinch zoning 35.0 9.5 25.5 5.9 - Corporate Business Park Urban Reserve Land 12.7 22.2 16.3 Urban Reserve Land Total (Ha) 140.8 58.1 82.7 23.9 58.7 Remaining Vacant Employment Imico vacant, Stevenson St. S- north of C.N.R. 11 Mixed Business, Non-Core Greenland B.4 2.0 1.7 0.3 0.2 1.8 1.8 Special Study Area, Non-Core Imico 0.9 200 Beverly St 11 Greenland B.4 5.4 3.8 1.5 0.8 4.6 3.7 0.1 40 Silvercreek Pkwy S 40 Industrial Lafarge B.4 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.3 southeast Speedvale Ave W/ Elmira Rd N 45 Industrial Armel B.3 4.7 0.0 4.7 4.7 southeast Speedvale Ave W/ Elmira Rd N 45 Industrial Armel B.2, SC.1-35 1.6 0.0 1.6 1.6 Institutional/ Research Park, Non- INSTITUTIONAL/ RESEARCH Edinburgh Rd S 14 I.2-2 5.73 1.0 Core Greenland PARK LANDS (as of October 2006) 0.0 5.7 4.8 Grangehill Ph.5b 2 Industrial B.1 4.7 0.0 4.7 4.7 Industrial/ Non-Core Grrenlands 35 & 40 Silvercreek Pky S 39 B.4 20.99 1.8 19.2 19.2 Research Lane 19 Insitutional/ Research Park I.2-1 0.63 0.0 0.6 0.6

46.1 2.7 43.3 1.9 41.4 Grand Total Area (Ha) 902.3 311.2 160.6 116.5 785.8 67.4 718.4 Grand Total Area (Ha) Excluding York Innovation District 690.3 102.0 588.4 31.4 557.0 1. Assumes gross area reduced by (17%) to account for internal roads, storm water management, parkland, easements/corridors etc. 2. 30 gross Hectares was removed from the Turf lands because they are now considered residential lands.

H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\Report Chapters\Guelph Emp Growth _169,000 Total

APPENDIX D GTA EMPLOYMENT LAND VACANCY ANALYSIS

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx TABLE D-1 VACANT EMPLOYMENT LANDS WITHIN GTAH INDUSTRIAL PARKS

1 2 3 4 5 (4 / 2)

Development Total Area Total Area Occupied (Net Vacant (Net Percent Business Park/District Name Municipality Period (Years) (Gross Acres) (Net Acres) 5 Acres) Acres) Vacant Southdown 1 Mississauga 20 1793.7 1435.0 998.3 436.7 30.4% Sheridan Park 1 Mississauga 40-45 400.3 320.2 212.3 107.9 33.7% Dixie 1 Mississauga 20-25 1,344 1075.2 1,001.8 73.4 6.8% 1 Northeast Mississauga 20-25 8590.3 6872.2 6,345.5 526.7 7.7% Mississauga Sub-Total 12128.3 9702.6 8,557.9 1144.7 11.8% Brock Employment Area 2 Pickering 30-35 1,200.0 960.0 662.5 297.5 31.0% 3,4 South Ajax Employment Area Ajax 60 821.8 657.4 531.4 126.0 19.2% Total 26,278.4 21,022.7 18,309.8 2,712.9 12.9% Sources: 1. 2006 Vacant Employment Lands. Mississauga Planning and Building Dept. January, 2006. 2. City of Pickering Economic Development Dept. as of early 2006. 3. Town of Ajax Planning Dept. as of Sept. 2004. 4. Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. has used a land vacancy factor of 148 net acres or approx. 15% of net vacant lands. This translates into 8.8% of total vacant and occupied lands (i.e. 148 net acres /(625.9 net acres occupied +1,065 net acres vacant) = 8.8%)

5. Net acres based on an estimated net to gross ratio of 80% for Mississauga and Pickering Business Parks/Districts. Net figures for the Town of Ajax are based on site-by-site analysis of the subject employment area.

H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\Report Chapters\Appendix D GTA Business Parks

APPENDIX E LIST OF NON-INDUSTRIAL USES PERMITTED ON DESIGNATED INDUSTRIAL AND CORPORATE BUSINESS PARKS

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx

E-1

APPENDIX E

Industrial (B.1 and B.2 Zones)

• Catering Services; • Cleaning Establishments; • Commercial Schools; • Computer Establishments;

Industrial Malls (B.3 Zone)

• Catering Service • Cleaning Establishment • Commercial Entertainment/Recreation Centre • Commercial School • Computer Establishment • Financial Establishments • Office • Office Supply • Personal Service Establishments • Photofinishing Place • Research Establishment • Restaurant

Industrial (B.4 Zone)

• Catering Service • Cleaning Establishment; • Veterinary Service

Industrial Malls (B.4 Zone)

• Commercial Entertainment/Recreation Centre

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx

E-2

• Commercial School • Computer Establishment • Financial Establishment • Office • Office Supply • Personal Service Establishment • Photofinishing Place • Print Shop • Research Establishment • Restaurant

Corporate Business Park (B.5 Zone)

• Catering Service • Commercial School • Computer Establishment • Hotel • Laboratory • Mall • Medical Clinic • Medical Office • Office • Post Secondary School • Research Establishment • Trade and Convention Facilities • Veterinary Service

Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\guelph\Employment Lands Strategy\employment lands report 2008.docx