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Predictive Marine Mammal Modeling for Queen Charlotte Basin, British Columbia

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Predictive Marine Mammal Modeling for Queen Charlotte Basin, British Columbia Predictive Marine Mammal Modeling for Queen Charlotte Basin, British Columbia Technical Report Benjamin Best Patrick Halpin Marine Geospatial Ecology Lab Nicholas School of the Environment Duke University Marine Lab Foreword This technical report documents statistical modeling and geospatial analysis conducted by the Duke University Marine Geospatial Ecology Lab in support of the Raincoast Conservation Foundation research program outlined in Research Contract #2008-03. This report documents the research objectives, associated maps, models and statistical products developed to support this effort. The research project was subdivided into two tiers of analysis: Tier 1 is focussed on the development of marine mammal density models and Tier 2 is focussed on the development of spatial decision support modeling. From these two tiers of analysis there are four sets of deliverable products: (1) Abundance estimates; (2) Predicted density surfaces with environmental correlates; (3) Composite risk map; and (4) Least-cost vessel routing. This project report describes pertinent methods and findings related to each of these four general research products. The documentation provided here represent technical draft materials intended to be further refined for eventual peer-reviewed publication. The eventual peer-reviewed submission(s) are expected to be developed as a joint effort between Duke University and Raincoast Conservation Foundation with expected authorship of Ben Best, Des Kawai, Kathy Heise, Paul Paquet, and Patrick Halpin. These manuscript(s) will be developed after the conclusion of this research contract and are expected to draw extensively from the models and analysis reported here. All of the analytical tools used to generate these results are archived at the following locations: Raincoast-Duke Collaboratory https://code.env.duke.edu/projects/raincoast The online digital products are temporarily available here: Google Earth – desktop application http://www.duke.edu/~bbest/rc/bc_marmam.kmz Google Maps – any web browser http://maps.google.com/maps?q=http://www.duke.edu/~bbest/rc/bc_marmam.kmz Page 2 of 120 TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword...................................................................................................................................................................2 List of Figures...........................................................................................................................................................5 List of Tables ..........................................................................................................................................................10 Introduction to the Project .......................................................................................................................................11 Survey Design.........................................................................................................................................................12 Species Observed and Conservation Status ............................................................................................................14 Abundance Estimation............................................................................................................................................19 TIER A. ESTIMATING ABUNDANCE .......................................................................... 21 Product 1. Using Conventional Distance Sampling ................................................................................................21 Methods ..................................................................................................................................................................21 Results ....................................................................................................................................................................22 Discussion...............................................................................................................................................................32 Product 2. Using Density Surface Models and Identifying Hotspots ....................................................................36 Methods ..................................................................................................................................................................36 Results ....................................................................................................................................................................40 Abundance Estimates..............................................................................................................................................42 Discussion...............................................................................................................................................................46 TIER B. COMPOSITE RISK MAP AND VESSEL ROUTING ....................................... 47 Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................................47 Methods ......................................................................................................................................................................48 Product 3. Composite Risk Map .............................................................................................................................48 Product 4. Vessel Routing.......................................................................................................................................49 Results.........................................................................................................................................................................50 Discussion ...................................................................................................................................................................55 REFERENCES.............................................................................................................. 56 APPENDIX 1. BRITISH COLUMBIA NAUTICAL CHARTS ......................................... 61 APPENDIX 2. MAPS OF OBSERVATIONS ................................................................. 68 Harbour porpoise ......................................................................................................................................................68 Dall’s porpoise ...........................................................................................................................................................69 Pacific white-sided dolphin .......................................................................................................................................70 Humpback whale .......................................................................................................................................................71 Fin whale ....................................................................................................................................................................72 Page 3 of 120 Killer whale ................................................................................................................................................................73 Minke whale...............................................................................................................................................................74 Harbour seal, haul-out ..............................................................................................................................................75 Harbour seal, in-water ..............................................................................................................................................76 Stellar sea lion, haul-out............................................................................................................................................77 Steller sea lion, in-water............................................................................................................................................78 Elephant seal ..............................................................................................................................................................79 APPENDIX 3. MAPS OF ENVIRONMENTAL COVARIATES ...................................... 80 Depth...........................................................................................................................................................................80 Slope............................................................................................................................................................................81 Distance to Coast .......................................................................................................................................................82 Dynamic Variables: SST, Chl...................................................................................................................................83 APPENDIX 4. DENSITY SURFACE MODEL OUTPUTS ............................................. 84 Harbour Porpoise ......................................................................................................................................................84 Dall’s porpoise ...........................................................................................................................................................87
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