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Country Report Ghana at a Glance: 2005-06

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Country Report Ghana at a Glance: 2005-06 Country Report Ghana Ghana at a glance: 2005-06 OVERVIEW The newly-re-elected president, John Agyekum Kufuor, and his New Patriotic Party, are expected to remain committed to donor-directed policies over the forecast period, and are having little difficulty in fending off domestic pressure to reverse the February fuel price increase, the toughest reform measure of 2005. Growth in both gold and cocoa production will drive further strong rates of economic growth over the forecast period; real GDP is forecast to rise by 4.8% in 2005 and 5.2% in 2006. However, because the government is committed to raising domestic-fuel and other administered prices to cost recovery levels as part of the reform programme, it will be difficult to bring inflation under control. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts average inflation of 16.5% in 2005, falling to 12.5% in 2006 Key changes from last month Political outlook • The findings of the National Reconciliation Commission have been published, and may lead the opposition National Democratic Congress to reconsider its association with Jerry Rawlings, who is heavily implicated in the report. The government will benefit from the fact that the public's attention has been diverted from criticism of fuel price reforms, and from its announcement of reparations for victims of human rights violations, which will be positive for its public image. Economic policy outlook • The 2005 budget indicates the government's continued commitment to the priorities of donor-driven policies, including the removal of utility subsidies. Economic forecast • We have revised our forecast for imports and inflation over the outlook period, based on the upward revision to our international oil price forecast to US$46/b in 2005 (previously US$42/barrel) and US$40/b in 2006 (previously US$37/b). Our forecast for the current account has therefore been adjusted upwards to 2.1% of GDP in 2005 and 2.6% in 2006. May 2005 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St The Economist Building 60/F, Central Plaza London 111 West 57th Street 18 Harbour Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2585 3888 Fax: (44.20) 7830 1023 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.eiu.com Electronic delivery This publication can be viewed by subscribing online at www.store.eiu.com Reports are also available in various other electronic formats, such as CD-ROM, Lotus Notes, online databases and as direct feeds to corporate intranets. For further information, please contact your nearest Economist Intelligence Unit office Copyright © 2005 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author's and the publisher's ability. However, the Economist Intelligence Unit does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 1350-7052 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Patersons Dartford, Questor Trade Park, 151 Avery Way, Dartford, Kent DA1 1JS, UK. Ghana 1 Contents Ghana 3 Summary 4 Political structure 5 Economic structure 5 Annual indicators 6 Quarterly indicators 7 Outlook for 2005-06 7 Political outlook 8 Economic policy outlook 10 Economic forecast 13 The political scene 19 Economic policy 27 The domestic economy 27 Economic trends 29 Mining 30 Financial markets 31 Foreign trade and payments List of tables 10 International assumptions summary 12 Forecast summary 24 Budgeted revenue 25 Budgeted expenditure 25 Budgeted deficit financing, 2005 29 Inflation 31 Companies listed on the Ghana Stock Exchange 32 Current account List of figures 13 Gross domestic product 13 Consumer price inflation 21 Petrol prices in Sub-Saharan African countries 27 Interest rates 33 Inward remittances 33 Foreign-exchange reserves Country Report May 2005 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2005 Ghana 3 Ghana May 2005 Summary Outlook for 2005-06 The newly-re-elected president, John Agyekum Kufuor, and his New Patriotic Party, are expected to remain committed to donor-supported policies over the forecast period. The government is expected to have little difficulty in continuing to fend off domestic pressure to reverse the February fuel price increase—a key reform required by donors. Growth in both gold and cocoa production will drive further strong rates of economic growth over the forecast period; real GDP is forecast to rise by 4.8% in 2005 and 5.2% in 2006. However, because the government is committed to raising domestic fuel and other administered prices to cost recovery levels as part of the reform programme, it will be difficult to bring inflation under control. We forecast average inflation of 16.5% in 2005, falling to 12.5% in 2006. The political scene Mr Kufuor has chosen his new cabinet. Although he has retained his most experienced ministers, the size of his executive administration is a concern. The opposition has organised four demonstrations against the fuel price increase, but most Ghanaians have decided to accept the price reform. The findings of the National Reconciliation Commission have been published and heavily implicate the military regimes led by ex-president Jerry Rawlings. Economic policy The IMF has conducted the third review of progress under the poverty reduction and growth facility. The minister for finance and the economy, Kwadwo Baah Wiredu, has presented the 2005 budget, which prioritises economic reform and poverty reduction. The government has announced a 20.5% increase in the minimum wage. The Bank of Ghana (BoG, the central bank) has kept interest rates unchanged at 18.5%. The domestic economy Provisional data from the BoG indicate that the economy grew by 5.8% in 2004, owing mainly to increases in cocoa production. Inflation accelerated to 16.7% in March 2005, reflecting the initial impact of the fuel price increase. The government has entered into a strategic partnership with a US firm, Alcoa, to develop an integrated aluminium industry. The Ghana Stock Exchange all-share index grew by 91.3% in 2004. Foreign trade and payments According to provisional data released by the BoG, a large increase in imports caused the current account to swing into a deficit of 1.4% of GDP in 2004. Foreign-exchange reserves also rose substantially, ending 2004 at US$1.6bn. Editors: Nicola Prins (editor); David Cowan (consulting editor) Editorial closing date: May 25th 2005 All queries: Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 E-mail: [email protected] Next report: Full schedule on www.eiu.com/schedule Country Report May 2005 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2005 4 Ghana Political structure Official name Republic of Ghana Form of state Unitary republic Legal system A new constitution, based on the US model, was approved by referendum in April 1992 National legislature Parliament; 230 members elected by universal suffrage every four years National elections December 2004 (presidential and parliamentary); next elections due in December 2008 Head of state President, elected by universal suffrage for a maximum of two four-year terms; John Agyekum Kufuor was sworn in on January 7th 2001 for the first time; he secured re- election in December 2004 for a second and final term National government Cabinet, appointed by the president in January 2005 Main political parties New Patriotic Party (NPP), the ruling party; National Democratic Congress (NDC), the main opposition party; other parties include People's National Convention (PNC), Convention People's Party (CPP), United Ghana Movement (UGM) and National Reform Party (NRP) President John Agyekum Kufuor Vice-president Aliu Mahama Key ministers Defence Kwame Addo Kufuor Communications & technology Albert Kan Dapaah Education & sports Yaw Osafo-Maafo Energy Mike Ocquaye Finance & economic planning Kwadwo Baah Wiredu Fisheries Galsys Asmah Food & agriculture Ernest Debrah Foreign affairs Nana Akufo-Addo Heath Courage Quashigah Interior Pap Owusu Ankomah Land, forestry & mines Dominic Fobih Justice & attorney general Ayikoi Otoo Local government & rural development Charles Bintim Manpower, youth & employment Joseph K. Adda Mines Cecilia Bannermann Ports, harbours & railways Christopher Ameyaw Akumfi Private sector development & Presidential Special Initiatives Kwamena Bartels
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