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Economic Perspectives The Journal of The Journal of Economic Perspectives Economic Perspectives The Journal of Fall 2015, Volume 29, Number 4 Economic Perspectives Symposia Overcondence Ulrike Malmendier and Timothy Taylor, “On the Verges of Overcondence” Michael D. Grubb, “Overcondent Consumers in the Marketplace” Ulrike Malmendier and Geoffrey Tate, “Behavioral CEOs: The Role of Managerial Overcondence” Kent Daniel and David Hirshleifer, “Overcondent Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading” The Future of Retail A journal of the Ali Hortaçsu and Chad Syverson, “The Ongoing Evolution of US Retail: American Economic Association A Format Tug-of-War” Bart J. Bronnenberg and Paul B. Ellickson, “Adolescence and the Path to Maturity in Global Retail” 29, Number 4 Fall 2015 Volume Online Higher Education Michael S. McPherson and Lawrence S. Bacow, “Online Higher Education: Beyond the Hype Cycle” Peter Navarro, “How Economics Faculty Can Survive (and Perhaps Thrive) in a Brave New Online World” Articles Jane E. Ihrig, Ellen E. Meade, and Gretchen C. Weinbach, “Rewriting Monetary Policy 101: What’s the Fed’s Preferred Post-Crisis Approach to Raising Interest Rates?” Bruce D. Meyer, Wallace K. C. Mok, and James X. Sullivan, “Household Surveys in Crisis” Roger Fouquet and Stephen Broadberry, “Seven Centuries of European Economic Growth and Decline” Recommendations for Further Reading Fall 2015 The Journal of Economic Perspectives A journal of the American Economic Association Editor Enrico Moretti, University of California at Berkeley Co-editors Gordon Hanson, University of California at San Diego Ulrike Malmendier, University of California at Berkeley Associate Editors Anat Admati, Stanford University Amy Finkelstein, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Adam Looney, US Department of the Treasury Emi Nakamura, Columbia University Richard Newell, Duke University Scott Stern, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Christopher Udry, Yale University Managing Editor Timothy Taylor Assistant Editor Ann Norman Editorial offices: Journal of Economic Perspectives American Economic Association Publications 2403 Sidney St., #260 Pittsburgh, PA 15203 email: [email protected] The Journal of Economic Perspectives gratefully acknowledges the support of Macalester College. Registered in the US Patent and Trademark Office (®). Copyright © 2015 by the American Economic Association; All Rights Reserved. Composed by American Economic Association Publications, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA. Printed by R. R. Donnelley Company, Jefferson City, Missouri, 65109, USA. No responsibility for the views expressed by the authors in this journal is assumed by the editors or by the American Economic Association. THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES (ISSN 0895-3309), Fall 2015, Vol. 29, No. 4. The JEP is published quarterly (February, May, August, November) by the American Economic Association, 2014 Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, TN 37203-2418. Annual dues for regular membership are $20.00, $30.00, or $40.00 depending on income; for an additional $15.00, you can receive this journal in print. E-reader versions are free. For details and further information on the AEA go to https://www.aeaweb.org/. Periodicals postage paid at Nashville, TN, and at additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to the Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2014 Broadway, Suite 305, Nashville, TN 37203. Printed in the U.S.A. The Journal of Economic Perspectives Contents Volume 29 • Number 4 • Fall 2015 Symposia Overconfidence Ulrike Malmendier and Timothy Taylor, “On the Verges of Overconfidence” . 3 Michael D . Grubb, “Overconfident Consumers in the Marketplace” . 9 Ulrike Malmendier and Geoffrey Tate, “Behavioral CEOs: The Role of Managerial Overconfidence” . 37 Kent Daniel and David Hirshleifer, “Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading” . 61 The Future of Retail Ali Hortaçsu and Chad Syverson, “The Ongoing Evolution of US Retail: A Format Tug- of-War” . 89 Bart J . Bronnenberg and Paul B . Ellickson, “Adolescence and the Path to Maturity in Global Retail” . 113 Online Higher Education Michael S . McPherson and Lawrence S . Bacow, “Online Higher Education: Beyond the Hype Cycle” . 135 Peter Navarro, “How Economics Faculty Can Survive (and Perhaps Thrive) in a Brave New Online World” . 155 Articles Jane E . Ihrig, Ellen E . Meade, and Gretchen C . Weinbach, “Rewriting Monetary Policy 101: What’s the Fed’s Preferred Post-Crisis Approach to Raising Interest Rates?” . 177 Bruce D . Meyer, Wallace K . C . Mok, and James X . Sullivan, “Household Surveys in Crisis” . 199 Roger Fouquet and Stephen Broadberry, “Seven Centuries of European Economic Growth and Decline” . 227 Features Timothy Taylor, “Recommendations for Further Reading” . 245 Statement of Purpose The Journal of Economic Perspectives attempts to fill a gap between the general interest press and most other academic economics journals . The journal aims to publish articles that will serve several goals: to synthesize and integrate lessons learned from active lines of economic research; to provide economic analysis of public policy issues; to encourage cross-fertilization of ideas among the fields of economics; to offer readers an accessible source for state-of-the-art economic thinking; to suggest directions for future research; to provide insights and read- ings for classroom use; and to address issues relating to the economics profession . Articles appearing in the journal are normally solicited by the editors and associate editors . Proposals for topics and authors should be directed to the journal office, at the address inside the front cover . Policy on Data Availability It is the policy of the Journal of Economic Perspectives to publish papers only if the data used in the analysis are clearly and precisely documented and are readily available to any researcher for purposes of replication . Details of the computations sufficient to permit replication must be provided . The Editor should be notified at the time of submission if the data used in a paper are proprietary or if, for some other reason, the above requirements cannot be met . Policy on Disclosure Authors of articles appearing in the Journal of Economic Perspectives are expected to disclose any potential conflicts of interest that may arise from their consulting activities, financial interests, or other nonacademic activities . Journal of Economic Perspectives Advisory Board Janet Currie, Princeton University Franceso Giavazzi, Bocconi University Claudia Goldin, Harvard University Robert E . Hall, Stanford University Greg Ip, Wall Street Journal Hongbin Li, Tsinghua University John Roemer, Yale University Paul Romer, New York University Howard Rosenthal, New York University Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 29, Number 4—Fall 2015—Pages 3–8 On the Verges of Overconfidence† Ulrike Malmendier and Timothy Taylor conomists have been concerned about issues of overconfidence at least since Adam Smith (1776, Book I, Chapter X), who wrote in The Wealth of E Nations: “The over-weening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities, is an ancient evil remarked by the philosophers and moral- ists of all ages.” Titans of modern economics have had similar reactions to the “ancient evil.” Daniel Kahneman recently told an interviewer that if he had a magic wand that could eliminate one human bias, he would do away with over- confidence. As Shariatmadari (2015) reports: “Not even he [Kahneman] believes that the various flaws that bedevil decision-making can be successfully corrected. The most damaging of these is overconfidence: the kind of optimism that leads governments to believe that wars are quickly winnable and capital projects will come in on budget despite statistics predicting exactly the opposite.” Kahneman argues that overconfidence “is built so deeply into the structure of the mind that you couldn’t change it without changing many other things.” Evidence concerning the prevalence of overconfidence is widespread and robust. Some of the results have even become fairly well-known in popular culture, like the findings that most drivers believe they are safer than a typical driver, or that ■ Ulrike Malmendier is Edward J. and Mollie Arnold Professor of Finance at the Haas School of Business and Professor of Economics at the Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, California. Malmendier is also a Co-editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives. Timothy Taylor is Managing Editor, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Macalester College, St. Paul, Minnesota. Their email addresses are [email protected] and [email protected]. † For supplementary materials such as appendices, datasets, and author disclosure statements, see the article page at http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.29.4.3 doi=10.1257/jep.29.4.3 4 Journal of Economic Perspectives the unskilled tend to overestimate their abilities. The finding about driver overcon- fidence stems from a Svenson (1981) study, a lab experiment using undergraduate students as subjects, which found that 83 percent of American subjects believed that they were in the top 30 percent in terms of driving safety. The finding about overestimation of ability comes from a Kruger and Dunning (1999) study, which reports: “[P]articipants scoring in the bottom quartile on tests of humor, grammar, and logic grossly overestimated their test performance and ability. Although their test scores put them in the 12th percentile, they estimated themselves to be in the 62nd.” Overconfidence
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