Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-Optimizing Flow Regulation

Drina Nexus Assessment CH5: Co-optimizing Flow regulation

Prof. Mark Howells Youssef Almulla, Francesco Gardumi and Eunice Ramos Division of Energy Systems Analysis - KTH KEY CHALLENGES

1.Limited cooperation in the operation of hydropower dams. 2.Uncertainty on the impacts of hydropower expansion on the flow regime and downstream uses. 3.Environmental flow regulation and impacts on electricity production. 4.Energy poverty in the DRB. 5.Lack of investments in non-hydro renewable energy sources. 6.Slow implementation of energy efficiency policies. 7. Un-utilized Electricity Export potential. SUGGESTED SOLUTIONS

Suggested Policy Direction

Improving cooperation between the DRB countries on flow regulation SUGGESTED SOLUTIONS

Suggested Policy Packages: 1.Coordination in the operation of the hydro power plants in the DRB. 2.Cooperation to Mitigate the risk against Floods. 3.Environmental flow considerations. 4.Assessment of new hydro power plants projects. 5.Motivating the implementation of Energy Efficiency measures. 1. COORDINATION IN THE OPERATION OF HYDRO POWER PLANTS Suggested solutions/actions:

1. Better scheduling of hydro power plants operation.

2. Formal agreement on flow regulation.

3. Improve data sharing and intersectoral communication.

4. Unified and modern hydro- meteorological forecasting system.

5. Development and continuously updating forecasting models. Quantification of the benefits of (Co-)optimizing flow regulation

Approach

Developing multi-country model of the three riparian countries (BA, ME and RS) with the focus on Drina river basin, using the Open Source energy MOdeling SYStem (OSeMOSYS).

Drina Water – Energy Model (DWEM): Energy System Focus: HPP  Cost optimal electricity generation to meet the demand. Hydrological  Soft linking of water flow in electricity generation system. System SCENARIO DESCRIPTION

 Base scenario (BASE): representing the non cooperative operation of HPPs in DRB. Upstream HPPs are operated on a single unit base and those downstream are responding to their best.

 Cooperative scenario (COP): representing a cooperative planning and operation of all the hydro power plants in the basin.  Increased Trade (COP_TRD): explores the opportunities of improving interconnections and trade of electricity.  Energy efficiency (COP_EE): investigates the impact of implementing energy efficiency measures on the electricity generation mix. GAINS IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION (COP – BASE)

• Compare the Cooperative operation with non-cooperative scenario.

• Better cooperation allow for better water availability in the river.

• Reduce thermal generation and reduce the overall system cost. 2. COOPERATION TO MITIGATE THE RISK AGAINST FLOODS Suggested solutions/actions:

1. Improve cooperation through better emergency preparedness and response planning.

2. Properly operating hydro- meteorological monitoring and the early warning systems.

3. Comprehensive approach that covers: infrastructure, software, modeling tools and building human capacity. 3. ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW CONSIDERATIONS