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NOKIA – BUY Equity Research • IT • 5 January 2011 • Jyske Markets NOKIA – BUY Equity Research • IT • 5 January 2011 • Jyske Markets Will 2011 be a good year for the Nokia? We generally expect that 2011 will be a good year for Nokia and we expect thus improvements with respect to products as well as earnings. This will hopefully also affect the share price. We maintain our BUY recommendation with a price target of EUR 14. We should, however, like to point out that Nokia remains a share for investors with a high risk tolerance. This is why we expect 2011 to be a good year: 1. New CEO: We had a positive first impression of Nokia’s new CEO Stephen Elop. We think that Elop is still in the early phases of the fight – and ‘the red card’ cannot yet be ruled out. This being said, we assess that Elop’s mind-set and actions are exactly the medicine that Nokia has needed for quite some Publisher: time. With Elop at the helm, we assess that Nokia’s chances of a comeback in the smartphone market Jyske Markets have increased. So have the chances of a successful recovery of Nokia’s earnings capacity/operating Vestergade 8-16 margin. Elop may turn out to be Nokia’s largest jewel! DK - 8600 Silkeborg 2. Symbian OS gets a new lift: 2011 will be the year when the Symbian OS operating system will be Senior Equity Analyst Robert Jakobsen comparable to Android and Apple’s iOS 4. Nokia is expected to launch 4-5 updates to Symbian OS in the +45 89 89 70 44 course of 2011. The first update will come in Q1 2011. Every update should recover some of the ground [email protected] lost to its rivals. Particularly a better user interface and a new web-browser have a high priority. The many updates will make it possible for Nokia to pass on the innovation quickly to the customers, which Equity Analyst should be received well. Lars Terp Paulsen Translation: Translation Services Price trend Fundamental valuation Undervalued 12 Risk High 11 News flow Negative 10 12-month price target 14 9 Current price 8.03 8 Accounting figures and key figures 7 (EUR million) 2009R 2010E 2011E 2012E 6 Sales 40,984 41,804 43,476 44,997 j f m a m j j a s o n n j Operating profit 3,245 2,508 3,522 4,185 Nokia DJ EURO STOXX Pre-tax profit 960 2,708 3,672 4,335 Share information Profit margin 8% 6% 8% 9% High/low latest 12 months 12/7 Read more equity ROE 6.8% 10.7% 15.7% 18.4% Price trend (3/12 months) 7%/-13% research reports on ROIC 8.5% 24.5% 24.3% 28.8% - relative to DJ EUROSTOXX 4%/-8% www.jyskemarkets.com EPS 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Market value (EURm) 30,072 P/E 64.5 19.3 12.0 9.3 Free float 100% Disclaimer: EV/EBITA 12.7 9.4 6.7 5.6 Avg. daily volume (EURm) 150 Please see the last P/B 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 Reuters NOK1V.FH page Dividend 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 Bloomberg NOK1V FH Source: Jyske Bank & Bloomberg NOKIA – BUY Equity Research • IT • 5 January 2011 • Jyske Markets 3. MeeGo: 2011 will also be the year when Nokia will launch the MeeGo operating system of which we have high expectations. MeeGo is Nokia’s new high-performance linux-based operating system which is tailor-made to the high end of the smartphone market. We anticipate that the first MeeGo smartphone (N9) will be launched at the end of H1 2011 (according to wiki.MeeGo.com, version 1.2 will be launched in week 16 or 17). Stepehen Elop has publicly announced that MeeGo seems promising but he want to allocate more time to the development of MeeGo. We point out that the public details about MeeGo’s look, user-friendliness & performance are very scarce. A successful MeeGo launch should be a material price trigger. On the other hand, a disappointing MeeGo will also disappoint investors. 4. Apps momentum? 2011 will presumably be the year when the volume of Apps* on Ovi Store is no longer a parameter which keeps potential customers away. Nokia recently announced that over the past 12 months as many as 400,000 developers have joined Nokia. This indicates that Nokia’s targeted stake on attracting the attention of independent Apps developers is beginning to have an effect. This should result in a solid lift in the number of Apps on Ovi Store in 2011 and hence remove/reduce a factor where Nokia is today lagging behind its rivals. *i.e. software programmes and games downloaded to the phone. 5. New smartphones: Also in 2011 we expect to see high growth rates in the smartphone market and hence it will account for a higher share of total sales and earnings at Nokia. Apart from E7 and the first MeeGo smartphone (both phones have been delayed from 2010) Nokia has only indicated that we will in Q2 and Q3 see more Symbian OS smartphones. Stephen Elop has then closed for early announcements of Nokia smartphones which may not be launched until 6-12 months later. In future, Nokia will launch the phones much closer to the launch date. A procedure which we definitely prefer. The many delays have only disappointed potential customers and invetors, which contributed to squeezing the share. It is, of course, difficult to have blind faith that Nokia’s 2011 smartphones will meet customers’/investors’ expectations. But on the other hand, it is our impression that Nokia’s newest smartphones (N8 and C7) have been met with a fine reception and are still selling well. In addition, E7 seems promising and ”spy photos” of N9 (MeeGo) are also promising. 6. Cost-cutting measures make their impact: Stephen Elop has been given carte blanche by the board of directors to implement the initiatives needed to strengthen Nokia’s competitiveness. This also includes carte blanche to make cost-cutting measures. In connection with the release of its Q3 accounts Nokia announced that the number of employees (primarily R&D) was reduced by approx. 1,800 people. We expect that Elop will launch more cost-cutting programme in 2011. Combined with our clear expectations that Nokia will in 2011 have better software solutions and hardware/phones on the shelves than was the case in (large parts of) 2010, Nokia should also be able to strengthen its competitiveness and earnings power in 2011. 2 NOKIA – BUY Equity Research • IT • 5 January 2011 • Jyske Markets Price triggers in 2011: CES in early January: CES is the world’s largest consumer electronics fair which will be held in Las Vegas from 6 to 9 January. Nokia will participate, and it has given rise to many speculations as to whether Nokia will disclose new products and services. If Nokia decides to announce new smartphones, an announcement of the E7 smartphone is most realistic. A smartphone which is expected to be launched in the beginning of 2011. E7 is remarkable, among other things, for a 4” touch screen and the reviewer-praised slide-out keyboard and screen. There are speculations in the market that Nokia will offer a status on the MeeGo operating system. We consider it less likely, however, that Nokia will also present the first MeeGo smartphone – the launch date is still too far away. Capital-markets day on 11 February: We anticipate that Nokia’s new management led by Stephen Elop will release Nokia’s new strategy plan. Other items which will presumably be on the agenda: 1) Nokia’s forecast for 2011. We expect that Nokia will guide a fair advance in the EBIT margin in the mobile-phone division, boosted by an improved product mix as well rationalisations. We anticipate that Nokia will guide a maintenance of the global market share following a loss of market share in 2010. In 2011, Nokia will have a better basis of comparison compared with large parts of 2010 (Q1-Q3) when Nokia in actual fact had no smartphones targeted at the high end of the market. As appears below, we expect to see 7% y/y sales growth at Devices & Services with an EBIT margin of 11.3% which should be seen in comparison with the 10.8% we estimate for 2010. Jyske Bank’s expectations of Nokia’s 2011 accounts: Anticipation of Nokia’s 2011 accounts (EURm) 2011 2010 Growth y/y Consensus Sales by segment Devices & Services 31023 29021 6,9% Networks 12493 12369 1,0% Navteq mv 1111 966 15,0% Sales 44306 42035 5,4% 44787 Operating profit (Non-IFRS) Devices& Services 3516 3140 12,0% Networks 80 60 32,6% Navteq 238 233 2,1% Operating profit (excl. extraord. costs) 3630 3187 13,9% 3439 EPS 0,69 0,60 14,6% 0,67 Number of sold mobile phones (m) 492 460 6,9% 2) new cost-cutting measures and comments on how, when and how much Nokia plans to lift its EBIT margin in the coming years. 3) new MeeGo details – for instance it is not unlikely that Nokia will show the first live demo of MeeGo 1.2 (test version) and tell about the customers’ (telecoms operators’) first impressions of MeeGo. In addition, we anticipate that Nokia will announce when and how many MeeGo smartphones Nokia will launch in 2011. 4) Nokia will inevitably tell about the long-term plans for Symbian OS (especially now that Nokia has taken over the development (previously Symbian Foundation) and is implementing the multiplatform Qt development tool) and may also indicate which functions users may look forward to in 2011.
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