The wiiw Balkan Observatory October Working Papers|056| 2004 Boyko Nikolov, Nikolay Markov, Nasko Dochev, Dimitar Dimitrov, Rumyana Kolarova and Rumen Dobrinsky Understanding Reform: A Country Study for Bulgaria The wiiw Balkan Observatory www.balkan-observatory.net About Shortly after the end of the Kosovo war, the last of the Yugoslav dissolution wars, the Balkan Reconstruction Observatory was set up jointly by the Hellenic Observatory, the Centre for the Study of Global Governance, both institutes at the London School of Economics (LSE), and the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw). A brainstorming meeting on Reconstruction and Regional Co-operation in the Balkans was held in Vouliagmeni on 8-10 July 1999, covering the issues of security, democratisation, economic reconstruction and the role of civil society. It was attended by academics and policy makers from all the countries in the region, from a number of EU countries, from the European Commission, the USA and Russia. Based on ideas and discussions generated at this meeting, a policy paper on Balkan Reconstruction and European Integration was the product of a collaborative effort by the two LSE institutes and the wiiw. The paper was presented at a follow-up meeting on Reconstruction and Integration in Southeast Europe in Vienna on 12-13 November 1999, which focused on the economic aspects of the process of reconstruction in the Balkans. It is this policy paper that became the very first Working Paper of the wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers series. The Working Papers are published online at www.balkan- observatory.net, the internet portal of the wiiw Balkan Observatory. It is a portal for research and communication in relation to economic developments in Southeast Europe maintained by the wiiw since 1999. Since 2000 it also serves as a forum for the Global Development Network Southeast Europe (GDN-SEE) project, which is based on an initiative by The World Bank with financial support from the Austrian Ministry of Finance and the Oesterreichische Nationalbank. The purpose of the GDN-SEE project is the creation of research networks throughout Southeast Europe in order to enhance the economic research capacity in Southeast Europe, to build new research capacities by mobilising young researchers, to promote knowledge transfer into the region, to facilitate networking between researchers within the region, and to assist in securing knowledge transfer from researchers to policy makers. The wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers series is one way to achieve these objectives. The wiiw Balkan Observatory Global Development Network Southeast Europe This study has been developed in the framework of research networks initiated and monitored by wiiw under the premises of the GDN–SEE partnership. The Global Development Network, initiated by The World Bank, is a global network of research and policy institutes working together to address the problems of national and regional development. It promotes the generation of local knowledge in developing and transition countries and aims at building research capacities in the different regions. The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies is a GDN Partner Institute and acts as a hub for Southeast Europe. The GDN–wiiw partnership aims to support the enhancement of economic research capacity in Southeast Europe, to promote knowledge transfer to SEE, to facilitate networking among researchers within SEE and to assist in securing knowledge transfer from researchers to policy makers. The GDN–SEE programme is financed by the Global Development Network, the Austrian Ministry of Finance and the Jubiläumsfonds der Oesterreichischen Nationalbank. For additional information see www.balkan-observatory.net, www.wiiw.ac.at and www.gdnet.org Centre for Economic and Strategic Research 3 akad. Nikola Obreshkov street, apt. 1; Sofia-1113, Bulgaria tel./fax: (+359 2) 973 3267; 971 2905 http://www.cesr.ibn.bg/ Understanding Reform Project Supported by the Global Development Network (GDN) Understanding Reform: A Country Study for Bulgaria Final Draft of the Country Report *) October 2004 Research Team: **) Boyko Nikolov, Centre for Economic and Strategic Research, Sofia, Project Coordinator Nikolay Markov, Centre for Economic and Strategic Research, Sofia Nasko Dochev, Centre for Economic and Strategic Research, Sofia Rumen Dobrinsky, UN Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva __________________________ *) The work on the final draft benefited greatly from very useful and helpful comments and suggestions on earlier drafts by Jose Fanelli, Gary McMahon, Jan Fidrmuc and other researchers from the GDN Secretariat, as well from the discussion at the GDN Fifth Annual Global Development Conference on Understanding Reform, New Delhi, 28- 30 January 2004. **) Dimitar Dimitrov and Rumyana Kolarova from the Department of Political Science of Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski” contributed to earlier drafts of this report. Understanding Reform: A Country Study for Bulgaria 1. Introduction Since 1989, when economic and political transformation in the former communist countries started, the reform process in Bulgaria has been rather uneven, and often has changed direction. Compared to the countries in central Europe, it took much longer to define the course of reforms and until 1997 Bulgaria was a laggard in the reform process. The economy was in disarray: the transformational recession was coupled with macroeconomic and financial instability, industrial decay, massive layoffs and a debt crisis. In 1996-1997, the deepening macroeconomic imbalances escalated into a severe financial crisis combining a crash in public finances, run on the banks and a collapse of the currency, all of which gave rise to a hyperinflationary hike in early 1997. However, since 1997 the situation has changed radically: the course of economic and political reforms has been firmly set and the policy orientation towards a pluralistic democracy and market economy has gained support among a wide majority of the society. In political terms, this was a definitive shift in values embodied in a firm orientation towards EU and NATO membership. In terms of economic policy, the emphasis was placed on fast macroeconomic stabilization (based on a currency board arrangement) and acceleration of structural reforms. There was a remarkable turnaround in economic performance: inflation rapidly fell to low single digits, public finances were brought under firm control and the economy grew steadily at a relatively high pace which allowed for the recovery of real incomes and private consumption. The sudden implosion of the communist regime in 1989 wiped out the previously existing societal and political structures. The newly emerging structures and stakeholder groups were not stable and continuously changed size and shape. The political forces found it difficult to form their vision of the future in their absence of guiding external signals. The heterogeneous societal structure triggered frequent change of governments which, in turn, pre-empted the adoption of a longer-term reform policies. The outcome was a stop-and-go reform course, with frequent change in policy direction and revisions in previously adopted measures. The 1996-1997 crisis was a turning point in Bulgaria’s transition. It was also a turning point in the attitude of society towards the reform process serving as a kind of catharsis. The crisis also had a profound impact on stakeholder groups which took a more stable and lasting shape. The guiding external signals coming from the west also strengthened, which helped in shaping the policy course and in consolidating its domestic support. Domestic macroeconomic policies were largely formulated under IMF guidance while the structural reforms implemented during that period were also to a large degree prompted by the international financial institutions. The stabilization of the societal structure was reflected in the concomitant stabilization of the political structure which was reflected in the lengthening of the governments’ terms in office. There emerged a broad consensus about the main direction of reforms which was supported by a wide majority of the population. The perceived irreversibility in reforms helped build the public understanding that the solution to the problems requires further reforms rather than their stalling. In this study, we analyze Bulgaria’s difficult economic and political transformation in an attempt to develop new insights into the mechanisms of the reform process. More specifically, we try to address three central questions: Why reforms in Bulgaria took or did not take place? What were the circumstances and condition that drove the reform process? What were the main outcomes of these reforms? Accordingly, we seek to identify the relevant issues for each of these questions and try to analyze the implied causal relationships and draw lessons and conclusions from Bulgaria’s experience with reforms. 2. Methodological issues A brief overview of the literature on Bulgaria’s reforms Bulgaria’s economic and political transformation has been the subject of extensive research and there are numerous academic publications analyzing this experience and seeking to explain Bulgaria’s peculiar reform path. A number of studies have attempted a more in- depth analysis of the initial stop-and-go reform effort and its policy rationale. Avramov (1994), Avramov and Antonov (1994), Avramov and Guenov (1994) analyze the macroeconomic policies of the first phase