Wavelet Methods and System Identification
Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar
Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the School of Mathematical Sciences at The University of Adelaide (Faculty of Engineering, Computer and Mathematical Sciences)
School of Mathematical Sciences
August 2016 Acknowledgments
I would like express my appreciation and acknowledgment to various people who have help and support me in the process of completing this Ph.D. thesis. First of all to my supervisors, Dr Andrew Metcalfe and Dr David Green, who keep supervising me through this adventurous and tough journey. I only could arrived at this point through their excellent mentoring, where they spend countless of hours reading my reports, and give some feedback and ideas on solving my thesis problems. Most importantly my wife, Noratiqah, who has been the backbone, supporting me mentally and emotionally through this journey. Also to my loving parents, Abu Bakar and Zaiton, who keep reminding me to finish the thesis. To my loving son, Muhammad Lutfi, who being the motivation for me to finally complete this thesis. I would like to express my gratitude to Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia and Ministry of Higher Education, Malaysia for the scholarship which make it possible for me to do my Ph.D. in The University of Adelaide. Also to the School of Mathematical Sciences, The University of Adelaide, on accepting me as their postgraduate student and for their supports and services during the whole time I spend there.
i Abstract
I begin with a brief introduction to dynamic systems, the identification of system parameters from records of input and output, and also wave energy converters which provide case studies to motivate the research. The dynamic systems discussed are categorized as linear or nonlinear dynamic systems. I present brief reviews of strate- gies for identification of dynamic systems which cover the history and also the areas of applications. The discretization of differential equations for dynamic systems is a recurrent theme and I consider forward, backward and central differences in detail for linear systems. The estimation techniques discussed are the principle of least squares, the Kalman filter and spectral analysis. Several system identification techniques for nonlinear dynamic systems in the time domain and in the frequency domain are presented and compared. The main focus of the thesis is estimation methods based on wavelets. I present some introduction to the wavelet transforms, which cover both continuous and dis- crete wavelet transforms. Wavelet methods for system identification of linear and nonlinear dynamic systems are discussed. Throughout this research, I have published four research articles guided by my supervisors. The first article discusses the wavelet based technique for linear system, and the technique was compared to the spectral analysis technique. The second article compare two types of wave energy converters, where the heaving buoy wave energy converter (HBWEC) is modelled as a linear system and the oscillating flap wave energy converter (OFWEC) as a nonlinear system. The frequency domain technique for system identification of nonlinear dynamic systems have been applied on the OFWEC model. Unscented Kalman filter have been discussed in the third article where the nonlinear OFWEC system have been used as the case study. A
ii wavelet approach for nonlinear system identification has been discussed in the fourth article together with the probing technique. The probing technique was used to find the generalized frequency response functions of the nonlinear dynamic systems based on the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input (ARX) model. Both technique were compared for two weakly nonlinear oscillators, the Duffing and the Van der Pol. Once again, we selected the OFWEC system as a case study. Contents
Acknowledgments i
Abstract ii
Statement of Originality vii
Preamble ix
1 Introduction 1 1.1 Applications Considered ...... 3
2 Background to Dynamic Systems 6 2.1 Introduction ...... 6 2.2 Dynamic Systems ...... 7 2.2.1 Linear Dynamic Systems ...... 10 2.2.2 Nonlinear Dynamic Systems ...... 12 2.3 System Identification ...... 15
3 Linear System Identification 19 3.1 Introduction ...... 19 3.2 Discrete Time Simulation ...... 22 3.3 Least Squares Method ...... 25 3.4 Kalman Filter ...... 27 3.5 Spectral Analysis ...... 29 3.5.1 Fourier Transform ...... 30 3.5.2 Response amplitude operator ...... 31
iv 3.6 Summary ...... 34
4 Nonlinear system identification in time domain 36 4.1 Introduction ...... 36 4.2 Discrete Time Simulation ...... 37 4.3 Time series models ...... 41 4.4 Unscented Kalman Filter ...... 53 4.5 Summary ...... 68
5 Nonlinear system identification in frequency domain 69 5.1 Introduction ...... 69 5.2 Bendat’s nonlinear system identification ...... 70 5.3 Generalized Frequency Response Function ...... 74 5.4 Summary ...... 76
6 Wavelets and System Identification 77 6.1 Wavelet Transforms ...... 77 6.2 Continuous Wavelet Transforms ...... 80 6.3 Discrete Wavelet Transforms ...... 83 6.4 Linear system analysis using wavelet ...... 87 6.4.1 Wavelet Response Amplitude Operator Estimation ...... 88 6.5 Nonlinear system identification by Wavelet Ridge ...... 91 6.5.1 Instantaneous Modal Parameters ...... 92 6.5.2 Wavelet Ridge ...... 94 6.6 Summary ...... 96
7 Synthesis 97 7.1 Comparison of Spectral and Wavelet Estimators of Transfer Function for Linear Systems ...... 97 7.2 Comparison of Heaving Buoy and Oscillating Flap Wave Energy Con- verters ...... 124 7.3 Unscented Kalman Filtering for Wave Energy Converters System Identification ...... 144 7.4 Comparison of Autoregressive Spectral and Wavelet Characteriza- tions of Nonlinear Oscillators ...... 154
8 Conclusions 185
Bibliography 188 Statement of Originality
I, Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar, certify that this work contains no material which has been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma in my name, in any university or other tertiary institution and, to the best of my knowledge and belief, contains no material previously published or written by another person, except where due reference has been made in the text. In addition, I certify that no part of this work will, in the future, be used in a submission in my name, for any other degree or diploma in any university or other tertiary institution without the prior approval of the University of Adelaide and where applicable, any partner institution responsible for the joint-award of this degree. I give consent to this copy of my thesis when deposited in the University Library, being made available for loan and photocopying, subject to the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. I acknowledge acknowledges that copyright of published works contained within this thesis resides with the copyright holder(s) of those works. I also give permission for the digital version of my thesis to be made available on the web, via the Universitys digital research repository, the Library Search and also through web search engines, unless permission has been granted by the University to restrict access for a period of time.
SIGNED: ...... DATE: ......
vii Published Works
M.A.A. Bakar, D.A. Green, and A.V. Metcalfe. Comparison of spectral and wavelet estimators of transfer function for linear systems. East Asian Journal on Applied Mathematics, 2(3):214-237, 2012.
M.A.A. Bakar, D.A. Green, A.V. Metcalfe, and G. Najafian. Comparison of heaving buoy and oscillating flap wave energy converters. In AIP Conference Proceedings: Proceedings of the 20th National Symposium on Mathematical Sciences, 1522: 86- 101, 2013.
M.A.A. Bakar, D.A. Green, A.V. Metcalfe, and N.M. Ariff. Unscented Kalman filtering for wave energy converters system identification. In AIP Conference Pro- ceedings: Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Mathematical Sciences, 1602: 304-310, 2014.
M.A.A. Bakar, N.M. Ariff, D.A. Green and A.V. Metcalfe. Comparison of autore- gressive spectral and wavelet characterizations of nonlinear oscillators. Submitted to East Asian Journal on Applied Mathematics, 2016. Preamble
This thesis has been submitted to the University of Adelaide for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. According to the University’s Specification for Thesis, a Doctoral thesis may comprise,
a combination of conventional written narrative presented as typescript and publications that have been published and/or submitted for publication and/or text in manuscripts, and this thesis takes this form. The thesis has been divided into eight chapters. The first chapter is a brief introduction to: dynamic systems; the identification of system parameters from records of input and output; and also wave energy converters which provide case studies to motivate the research. In the second chapter I discuss dynamic systems, which can be divided into linear and nonlinear dynamic systems. I also present brief reviews of strategies for identification of dynamic systems which cover the history and also the areas of applications. In the third chapter, I consider linear systems. The discretization of differential equations for dynamic systems is a recurrent theme and I consider forward, backward and central differences in detail for linear systems. Then I consider estimation techniques including: least squares, the Kalman filter and spectral analysis. The fourth and fifth chapter discussed several system identification techniques for nonlinear dynamic systems in time domain and frequency domain, respectively. The sixth chapter starts with an introduction on the wavelet transforms. This cover both continuous and discrete wavelet transforms. Several wavelet methods for
ix system identification of dynamic systems are discussed here. The seventh chapter presents four published papers from this research which form the main component of this thesis. The outline of the paper is given for each paper. All the papers are presented in the format they were printed. In the last chapter, I discuss the conclusions from this research. Together with the conclusions, I also suggest possible potential future research following this thesis and also on system identification generally. Chapter 1
Introduction
Dynamics is one of the branches of physics which deals with motion. The study of dynamic systems started in the Greek era, famously by Aristotle who defined motion as the actuality of a potentiality. Aristotle classified motion as natural, voluntary and forced [58] and hence proposed that any object moved because of the acts of force on it, either visible or invisible. Galileo Galilei who is known as the father of modern physics and modern as- tronomy, set the foundations for understanding the motion of objects on the earth’s surface. He formulated the basic law of falling bodies with his famous leaning tower of Pisa experiment, where he demonstrated that the descent time of a falling object was independent of the object’s mass. This has been the basis of Newton’s laws of gravity. Galileo’s greatest contribution is the concept of inertia, where the velocity of a moving object will remain constant unless an external force (e.g. frictional force) acts on it. This concept was used by Newton to formulate his first law of motion. Newton, who was a key figure in emergence of modern science, formulated the famous laws of motion and the law of gravity. However, it is Gottfried Leib- niz who defined and elaborated on the concept of the scientific term ’dynamics’, which is being used in the modern sciences today. Other notable scientists who have made significant contributions to the study of dynamics before the 1900’s are Kepler (Kepler’s laws), Descartes, Cavalieri and Fermat. The study of dynamic systems looks at how one state develops into another state over the course of time. For example, in evaluating the mass-spring system
1 CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 2 or fluid flow in pipes. Dynamic systems can be any system whose behaviour or characteristics can be observed over some interval of time. Some of the complex dynamic systems now being applied to interdisciplinary studies, range from human movement systems or transport systems to economic systems. Most of these dynamic systems are complex and therefore have to be studied and analyzed further so that their respective behaviour can be understood. By understanding the system behaviour information to inform decision making related to the control, management, acquisition or transformation of the system may be gained [17]. System identification is an area which deals with building, identifying or mea- suring the mathematical model of a system. The term ”identification” was first coined by Zadeh [138] for the problem of determining the input-output relationship of systems, now an essential study approach in model estimation of dynamic sys- tems. Previously, it was known as system characterization, system measurement or system evaluation in the control community. One purpose of system identification is to diagnose the properties of a system, where for example, the aim is to identify the system’s parameter values which can be used to design a control strategy [6]. System identification is a very broad area with a variety of different methods and approaches. The methods will depend on the character or the behaviour of the sys- tem models, where some of the characteristics are linear, nonlinear or hybrid. Some of the system identification techniques and their applications have been discussed in [82, 11] and by several survey papers [6, 2, 44, 70, 83]. Usually, a mathematical model is used as the representation of a dynamic system, which provides a basis for analysis and for engineering design. From the mathemati- cal model, decisions can be proposed and actions can be evaluated. This can be done by forecasting the response from the mathematical model and then by evaluating the performance. This helps in prototyping and concept evaluation, while reducing risk and providing assessment in safety aspects. By using a mathematical model, the cost can be reduced, since a system can be evaluated by a model with less cost than the actual system. It is also much safer since we can asses any potential dangers and take precautions before the real system CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 3 is run. From the mathematical model, we can simulate a system using a computer, which is generally much faster than a trial run of the actual system. This thesis discusses methods for identifying dynamic systems from measure- ments of inputs and outputs. There are various system identification techniques that are presented and discussed in this thesis, as applied to linear and nonlinear dynamic systems. These methods work in either the time domain, the frequency domain or both the time and frequency domains. This thesis also discusses predic- tion technique for dynamic system’s responses given a dynamic system model and its inputs. The methods based on wavelets are the main focus of this work. Together with the discussion of the wavelet transforms and the wavelet methods for system iden- tification, this research also compares wavelet methods with other time domain or frequency domain system identification techniques in the literature. The comparison is performed by applying these techniques to the model of a spring mass damper system for identification of linear dynamic systems, to the Duffing and the Van der Pol systems for the identification of nonlinear dynamic systems. Two types of wave energy converters are considered for the case studies known as the heaving buoy wave energy converter (HBWEC) and the oscillating flap wave energy converter (OFWEC). From the model of the wave energy converters, the responses have been simulated using methods discussed later in this thesis.
1.1 Applications Considered
The methods discussed here are generally applicable, but the context of this work is in the field of wave energy converters. Each year, demand and consumption of energy especially in fuel and electricity have increased globally. In 2008, the global energy consumption was around 1.5 × 105 TW hour per year and it is predicted to rise to approximately 2.3 × 105 TW hour per year in 2035 [50, 28]. According to the Worldwatch Institute [135], there are still two billion people who have not been pro- vided with proper electric facilities. This demand is rising from developing countries which are doubling their needs every eight years. The fossil fuels and nuclear power CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 4 cannot support this energy demand. The ongoing petroleum crises combined with global warming has added pressure to push governments and industries to look for alternative sources of energy. These alternative energy sources should be clean with low environmental impact even in the case of spillage or some other accident. The energy resource should also be sustainable and readily available so that no country can monopolize it. Another highly prioritized value would be the cost effective- ness in considering any alternative energy. By looking at these requirements, only renewable energy sources can satisfy these conditions. There are many types of renewable energy sources such as hydro energy, solar energy, wind energy and ocean energy. Each of these energy sources have their own advantages and disadvantages. The suitability of each renewable energy source mostly depends on the resource availability. However, a major issue arises in har- nessing renewable energy, since production needs to be sustainable. The processes associated with collecting this renewable energy, transforming the energy and then to supplying the energy in a usable form present many issues. Consider the renewable energy sources mentioned above, the suitability of which obviously depends on the geographical aspects of the location from where the energy will be harnessed. For hydro energy, an ample supply of water is required from a river, lake or reservoir with gravitational potential that can generate hydroelectricity. Alternatively, ocean energy will only be suitable for coastal areas. Wind is available everywhere around the world but higher altitudes and coastal areas are preferred as the location for wind farms since they have a higher density of wind movement compared to other areas. For solar energy, long daylight hours and sunny weather will optimize the amount of energy that can be generated. Solar, wind and ocean waves are related to each other. Wind is created by the sun, while the ocean wave is generated by the wind. Even though wave power potential is lower than the wind and solar power, it is more persistent and spatially concentrated [37]. The earth’s surface is covered 70% with water and 98% of that is ocean. Therefore a vast renewable energy supply is available. Ocean power plants also do not need to take land space, since the open sea is preferable to the shoreline. Ocean power is likely to have less environmental impact than wind power while some CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 5 studies have shown that it also has a positive effect on the ocean ecosystem [77]. However, wave energy systems used to date are still not cost efficient. The device structures also face the possibility of being destroyed by the rough sea, which is the same problem as faced by other offshore structures such as drilling platforms. There is also the problem of predicting wave height, which is very important in determining the suitability of locations for power plants and also for the energy harvesting devices. System identification technique have been suggested as an alternative approach for hydrodynamic modelling given that the model can be determined from the mea- sured input and output data from the system [30]. Given that most offshore struc- tures including the WECs are nonlinear, the system identification technique of non- linear systems provide a platform for investigation on the WECs. Chapter 2
Background to Dynamic Systems
2.1 Introduction
State space models for dynamic systems that are reliant on digital computers have been used in the aerospace industry since the 1960s to analyze automatic control systems. They have been used extensively in signal processing and control engi- neering [66, 44, 70, 83]. Other applications of dynamic systems are in economics and finance [26, 136]. In electrical engineering, it has been used for circuit analysis, simulation and design [105, 62], and in mechanical and civil engineering especially to study the dynamics of structures. Another application is in navigation systems such as the GPS. Physical processes are not precisely described by mathematical models, but a model is considered good if it could give accurate predictions and includes the main features of the process. There is a complete general theory of linear models which is adequate for many purposes. Linear systems are relatively easy to describe and ana- lyze because the steady state response to a sinusoidal input is at the same frequency and the gain and phase shift do not depend on the amplitude of the input. However, there are many other applications which require a nonlinear model. There is no encompassing analysis of nonlinear models and a variety of approaches is available. One of the approaches is to linearize a nonlinear dynamic system by taking local linear approximations. Based on my review of the developments in the analysis of modelling nonlinear systems up until 2010, there have been remark-
6 CHAPTER 2. BACKGROUND TO DYNAMIC SYSTEMS 7 able advancements in the research associated with nonlinear systems [70, 83]. This has been facilitated by digital computers which support the mathematical analysis through numerical computation and computer simulation [44].
2.2 Dynamic Systems
Dynamic systems essentially refers to any physical environment where position or state can be explained numerically. The dynamic system evolves with time and the dynamic system model relates the system’s current states to its past states. Dynamic systems can be either linear or nonlinear depending on their properties and behaviour. There is a complete general theory of linear models for dynamic systems, but in many applications a linear model does not provide an adequate approximation and may not even indicate the general behaviour of the system. From a mathematical perspective, the differences between linear and nonlinear system depends on the model of the system itself. That is, whether it can be mod- elled by a linear or nonlinear equation. The details of the model’s equations explain how the systems interact and behave. Systems that behave linearly are usually easier to define and the exact solutions are relatively easy to find. Usually, for lin- ear system, the model can give an almost precise prediction on the system’s future behaviour. There are no interactions between the independent and the dependent variables in linear system. The state of linear systems can grow or decay expo- nentially, or even cycle periodically, by either decaying or growing in oscillations as observed in the mass-spring system. Most systems in this world do not behave linearly. Even though some do behave gradually and predictably, they might not fit a linear model. The most common nonlinear behaviors are classified in terms of chaos, multistability, amplitude death, aperiodic solutions or solitons [121, 3, 113, 111]. These behavior of a nonlinear system is usually unpredictable or sometimes chaotic. There are generally no exact solutions for nonlinear dynamic systems and therefore, we have to redefine what we consider to be a solution. The nonlinear equations can take many different forms, where the nonlinear term in the equation make the model nonlinear. CHAPTER 2. BACKGROUND TO DYNAMIC SYSTEMS 8
Dynamic systems can be modelled mathematically, thus allowing the systems to be simulated and analyzed without the requirement of having to build the real system. This saves the expense of building the real system and also saves time since the model can be simulated in less time compared to the real system. The model can describe how the system performs, and hence, provides the opportunity to understand and study the system’s dynamics and processes prior to construction. However, even though a chosen model replicates the same values, states and posi- tions of a real system, it is only a model and not the exact model for the system. Therefore, there may be more than one model for a single system, which can be used to investigate various aspects. The main variables of a dynamic system model are the output from the system which can be measured, in response to the inputs which are external to the model. The inputs usually can be determined or selected and can be controlled. For complex systems, the inputs can be outputs from other models of systems. From the concept of signal processing, the inputs are transformed by a system into outputs. One common approach in viewing and describing this process is by using something known as the transfer function and the state space. Using the transfer function approach, the process is described by considering how exponential inputs are transformed into exponential outputs. Alternatively, using the state space approach, this process involves the states as intermediate variables, but the ultimate aim is to describe how inputs lead to outputs. Dynamic systems can be studied in both continuous and discrete time. An ideal- ized dynamic system can be modelled in continuous time by a differential equation (DE), or in discrete time by a difference equation obtained from the differential equa- tion. The discrete forms can be thought of as approximations to the idealized linear system in as much as the derivatives are approximated by finite differences. An exact representation is obtained if the input is assumed constant over the sampling interval. A discrete model is as realistic for a physical system as a continuous model. Recent works with dynamic systems generally rely on digital computing. Given sets of discrete data and numerical function values, discrete time models are usually more practical and preferred for systems analysis using computation in digital computers. CHAPTER 2. BACKGROUND TO DYNAMIC SYSTEMS 9
In practice, dynamic variables are usually measured with an electronic apparatus and continuous signals are digitized to give a time series. Some of the signals that are discretely sampled are audio signals which are commonly digitally sampled for recording or communication, and video signal which are sampled in time by discrete frames. By taking a sufficiently small sampling interval, the discrete model can be made arbitrarily close to the continuous model. As an example, the analog-to-digital (A/D) converter which converts a continuous quantity to a discrete digital number works at megahertz (MHz) rates. Thus, at very high sampling rates, where the sampling intervals are very small, a physical system which is in continuous time is approximated by a discrete model. However, there is some limitation to discrete sampling, known as aliasing. Alias- ing is an effect that occurs when the discretely sample signal is insufficient at captur- ing the changes in the signal. This effect occurs if the signal frequency is the same as the sampling frequency. Following Nyquist’s theorem, aliasing can be avoided if the sampling frequency is at least twice the highest frequency present in the signal, known as the Nyquist frequency. In practice, anti-alias filters are used together with the analog to digital converter to ensure aliasing is eliminated during signal sampling [35]. In continuous time, the dynamic system model takes the form of a differential equation
x˙ t = f(x(t), p, t), (2.2.1) where x is a vector of systems variables, f is a function of the continuous time system variables and p is a vector of system parameters. For a discrete time dynamic system, the model is in the form of a difference equation
x[t + 1] = g(x[t], p, t), (2.2.2) where g is a function of the discrete time system variables which map the vector x to the next time step and p is a vector of system parameters. CHAPTER 2. BACKGROUND TO DYNAMIC SYSTEMS 10
2.2.1 Linear Dynamic Systems
The equation of motion for a linear dynamic system involves only polynomial func- tions of degree one. The system variables are simple and do not involve nontrivial functions such as squares, square roots, absolute values or threshold functions [116]. Systems can be considered linear if they satisfy the following two properties:
1. Additivity Property
A [x1 + x2] = A [x1] + A [x2] , (2.2.3)
2. Homogeneity Property A [cx] = cA [x] , (2.2.4) where A [·] is the system. This is known as the superposition principle. A linear system always has a unique solution, which in the time domain can be described in terms of its impulse response, h(·), through convolution. Impulse response function is the response or output when a dynamic system is forced by an unit impulse signal or Dirac function, defined as
δ(t) = 0 for all t 6= 0, (2.2.5) and Z ∞ δ(t)dt = 1. (2.2.6) −∞ Due to the unit impulse signal, the impulse response will be h(t). Hence, if the unit impulse is δ(t−τ), then the response will be h(t−τ). Since the system is linear, then if the impulse is multiply by x(τ), then the output will be h(t − τ)x(τ). Therefore, from the definition of the Dirac function, the relationship between the input, x(t) and the output, y(t) in continuous time is
Z ∞ y(t) = h(t − τ)x(τ)dτ, (2.2.7) −∞ and in discrete time, ∞ X y[t] = h[t − k]x[k]. (2.2.8) k=−∞ CHAPTER 2. BACKGROUND TO DYNAMIC SYSTEMS 11
Figure 2.2.1: Linear system in time domain
This relationship is shown in Fig. 2.2.1. Furthermore, Eqn. 2.2.7 and 2.2.8 can be written as a convolution denoted by
y(t) = h(t) ∗ x(t). (2.2.9)
The signals, x(t) and y(t) can be transformed into its frequency representation, X(ω) and Y (ω), respectively, through the Fourier transform. The same applies to the impulse response function, h(t), where its Fourier transform is H(ω), known as the transfer function. The convolution can be written in frequency domain as a simple Y (ω) = H(ω)X(ω). (2.2.10)
Another property of linear systems is that the response to a disturbance at a given frequency occurs at the same frequency. The response is also proportional to the amplitude of the disturbance and the response to several disturbances is equal to the sum of the responses to each individual disturbance. Given these additional prop- erties, the analysis of linear system is generally much easier to handle in frequency domain than in time domain. A linear dynamic system can also be described using the state space equations
dx = A (t) x (t) + B (t) u (t) , (2.2.11) dt y (t) = C (t) x (t) + D (t) u (t) , (2.2.12) where x(t) is the state vector, u(t) is the input or control vector and y(t) is the output or observation vector. Matrices A, B, C and D are known as the dynamics, input, output and feedthrough matrices, respectively. Eqns. 2.2.11 and 2.2.12 are called the dynamic equations and measurement equations, respectively. The system is called autonomous if there is no input. Usually, the feedthrough matrix, D = 0. CHAPTER 2. BACKGROUND TO DYNAMIC SYSTEMS 12
When u and y are scalar, the system is called a single-input single-output (SISO) system. Otherwise it is called multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) system. As example, a single degree of freedom (SDOF) oscillating linear system such as the damped mass-spring system can generally be modelled using a second order differential equation such as
my¨t + cy˙t + kyt = xt, (2.2.13) where y is the response or output at time t, x is the input or force at time t, m is the mass, c is the damping coefficient and k is the stiffness. In simplest form, the mass is allowed to move only in a single direction, the model can also be written as
x y¨ + 2ζω y˙ + ω2y = t , (2.2.14) t n t n t m where c ζ = √ (2.2.15) 2 mk is the damping ratio and r k ω = (2.2.16) n m is the natural frequency.
2.2.2 Nonlinear Dynamic Systems
Linear equations have been used extensively as an approximation to many nonlin- ear dynamic systems. Even though linearizations do perform effectively, there are limitations which can cause some important nonlinear behaviour to be missed. For nonlinear dynamic systems, the equations of motion contain nontrivial functions such as squares, cubes, square roots, product across different system variables or threshold functions. Most dynamical systems are actually nonlinear dynamic systems and the pro- cesses are usually nonstationary processes. According to Kerschen et al. [70], com- mon types of nonlinearity are:
• geometric nonlinearity, which is caused by large displacements of the structures or large deformations of flexible elastic structures. Examples such as slender CHAPTER 2. BACKGROUND TO DYNAMIC SYSTEMS 13
structures in civil or mechanical applications and tensile structures such as cables,
• inertia nonlinearity, which corresponds to nonlinear terms that contain veloc- ities or accelerations in the equation of motion,
• nonlinear material behaviour, such as observed material when undergoes non- linear elasticity, plasticity or viscoelasticity,
• damping dissipation, such as the dry friction effects and structural damping,
• nonlinearity due to boundary conditions, such as free surface in fluids and clearances.
The main difference between linear and nonlinear dynamic systems is with the superposition principle. The superposition principle, which requires linearity and homogeneity, is not applicable to the nonlinear dynamic systems. The nonlinear dynamic systems may also have multiple isolated equilibrium points, whereas linear systems only have one equilibrium point. This mean that the solutions for nonlinear dynamic systems could be multiple, while for linear dynamic systems, the solution is always unique. Nonlinear dynamic systems may also exhibit behaviours such as limit-cycle, bifurcation and chaos [3]. The nonlinear dynamic state is unstable, hence it can go to infinity in finite time, which is not possible for a linear dynamic system. Given a sinusoidal input, the output from a nonlinear dynamic system may contain multiple harmonics and sub-harmonics with various amplitudes and phase differences. There are many methods that can be used to study nonlinear systems such as the linearization approach, nonlinear extension of the concept of mode shapes, and perturbation methods such as the method of averaging, the Lindstedt-Poincare tech- nique and the method of multiple scales. Even though for some nonlinear systems, a linear model may be a satisfactory approximation, such models will still have some limitations [30]. That is why many other techniques have been proposed to analyze nonlinear dynamic systems. However, there is still no general method that can be CHAPTER 2. BACKGROUND TO DYNAMIC SYSTEMS 14 used to analyze all types of dynamic systems or wide classes of nonlinear dynamic systems mainly because of their highly individualistic nature. Given the recent advancements in computer and software technology, some pre- viously unsolvable nonlinear problems have been successfully approached. This has led to a different way on how dynamic systems can be viewed and solved. The com- putational advancement make complex calculations easier and faster. The computer technology provides ways for interactive modelling and simulation of the dynamic systems [73]. Instead of focusing on the quantitative aspects (numerically), there are many computer packages that can provide ways of accessing qualitative aspects of nonlinear dynamic systems that provide a better understanding of the nonlinear behaviours.
Examples of Nonlinear Dynamic Systems
Most of the works in this thesis on nonlinear dynamic systems have been applied on the Duffing and Van der Pol oscillators given that both are consider as simple nonlinear systems. Both can be modelled as single degree of freedom nonlinear systems which can be linearized by some linearization techniques. The system model becomes a linear system model such as the previous linear mass spring damper system by removing the nonlinear part from the differential equation, which may be done in some circumstances. For a Duffing system, one nonlinear behaviour is the jump phenomena, where the steady state behaviours change dramatically due to a transition from one localized stable solution to another localized stable solution. Other behaviours observed for the Duffing system are the local and global bifurcations which result in chaotic responses [67]. The Duffing nonlinear systems can be modelled as
2 my¨ + cy˙ + (k + k3y )y = u, (2.2.17) where u and y are the input and output of the system respectively, m is the mass, c is the linear viscous damping coefficient, k is the linear elastic stiffness coefficient and k3 is the nonlinear feedback cubic stiffness coefficient. If k3 = 0, then Eqn. 2.2.17 CHAPTER 2. BACKGROUND TO DYNAMIC SYSTEMS 15 will be a basic SDOF linear model. The Van der Pol oscillator was introduced by Balthasar van der Pol [126, 127], to model the behaviour of nonlinear vacuum tube circuits or electrical circuits with a triode valve. It can be modelled by a second order differential equation
y¨ + µ y2 − 1 y˙ + y = u, (2.2.18) where µ > 0 is the nonlinear damping coefficient. Without the nonlinear friction term, µ (y2 − 1)y ˙, Eqn. 2.2.18 will be a simple harmonic oscillator such that
y¨ + y = u. (2.2.19)
This nonlinear friction term depends on the amplitude of the oscillator. If the oscillator amplitude is large, then this nonlinear term will be positive. Hence, the oscillations are damped, resulting in decaying motion. If the oscillations are small, the nonlinear term will be negative, a behaviour known as anti-damping. This will cause an amplification of the motion. In other words, energy will be generated at low amplitudes and dissipated at high amplitudes. The oscillator is a self-sustaining oscillator since energy will be supplied into the system if the oscillations are small and removed from the system if the oscillations are large. Since this oscillator is stable, it is known as a relaxation-oscillator or in other words, Van der Pol is a system that exhibits limit cycle oscillations. Other extensions of the Van der Pol oscillator demonstrate quasiperiodicity, elementary bifurcations [19], and chaos. The Van der Pol oscillator model has been used to describe the action potentials of biological neurons [39], to generate electrocardiography (ECG) like signals [69], to model resonant tunneling diode circuits [115] and to simulate two plates in a geological fault [24].
2.3 System Identification
The purpose of system identification is to determine a mathematical relation between the observed behaviours or responses of the system (outputs) and the external in- fluences or forces on the system (inputs). The system can be described by using the CHAPTER 2. BACKGROUND TO DYNAMIC SYSTEMS 16 mathematical models since the dynamic behavior of a system or process is either observed in either the time domain or the frequency domain. The system identification problem is an important aspect in many fields, espe- cially in engineering, mathematics, statistics, economics and physical sciences. Since dynamic systems can be modeled by mathematical models and usually approached by mathematical methodologies, they are also called modeling problems or time series analysis problems by many researchers [90]. Important aspects in system identification are system modelling and estimations, which can be divided into prediction or forecasting of the state of a system, which is also known as the response or output of a system. There are various techniques of system identification, where those techniques will depend on whether the dynamic system model is linear or nonlinear. There are nonparametric approaches which try to estimate a generic model for the system, by considering the system’s step responses and impulse responses or frequency re- sponses. The parametric approach on the other hand estimates parameters from a specified model. According to Ljung [82], there are several important steps in building a model of a dynamical system. To build a system model, requires data from the systems (input/output data), the candidate models and the rules for selecting the best model from the candidates. The chosen model then needs to be validated based on the data, the prior information on the system and also the purpose of the system. There is no such thing as the perfect model that can fully describe a system, but as long as the model adequately describes the aspects that interest us, then the model can be considered as a good model. Mathematical statistics, econometric and time series analysis are among the core areas of system identification, where many early works on system identification were done based on these fields [44]. Statistical techniques were important for such thing as information extraction, parameter estimation, predictions and validations. By using statistical methods, mathematical models of dynamical systems can be built from observed input and output data. One important method is the method of least squares, which was introduced in the early 19th century [76]. The least CHAPTER 2. BACKGROUND TO DYNAMIC SYSTEMS 17 squares method enables us to obtain a line of best fit for a scatter plot, and hence a proposed best model for summarizing that data. Correlation and regression analysis are some of the most commonly used techniques. Both of these techniques are useful in describing the relationships between variables, and the relationships as proposed for the two quantifications are very important in system identification. Another major approach in the development of the theory and methodology of system identification is the prediction-error identification based on minimizing a parameter-dependent criterion, which is closely related to a time series analysis [5, 41]. This approach, pioneered by Astr¨omet˚ al. [5], applies the maximum likelihood framework for estimating parameters for difference equation methods. Based on the concept of bias and variance error for an estimated transfer function [81, 82], system identification was viewed as a design problem [44]. The years from the 1975 to 1985 were the golden years of system identification in the engineering fields. Most of the methods introduced during these times were based on a prediction-error criteria and input-output models. These were also helped along by the advancement in computer technology with faster computational time and the development of specialized software for system identification. Ljung [82] separated the concepts of parametric model structure from the choice of identification criterion. The concept of a parametric model structure provided the platform for computing predictions and parameter-dependent prediction errors. The other concept, which is the choice of the identification criterion, focuses on the prediction errors and the parameter vector. Later in the 1990s, the system identification field shifted their attention to frequency domain identification, closed-loop identification, the use of orthogonal basis functions (such as wavelet function) for identification, methods for quantifying model uncertainty, errors-in-variables identification, and the nonlinear systems identification [44]. The system identification methods usually require both the input and output data, such as for example in the least squares method. However, there are meth- ods that can be based on the information from the output data only, such as the frequency domain decomposition method [21]. Even though a technique based on input-output data would likely provide more accurate solutions or results, there are CHAPTER 2. BACKGROUND TO DYNAMIC SYSTEMS 18 times when the input data is not accessible and cannot be obtained. Hence, the technique which is based on only the output signal can be used. Systems engineers use these principles of the design of experiments for system identifications [85, 31]. In proposing a model for a dynamic system, the process of designing the experiment is crucial to ensure the unknown model parameters will be accurately estimated and verified [27]. The quality of the observed signals (input and output) also play an important role in ensuring the quality of the identification. The theory of optimal experimental design provides a way of selecting inputs that yield maximally precise estimators [46, 129]. The most active area in system identification nowadays is in the identification of nonlinear models. Most of the research on nonlinear system identification have been focusing on finding the best identification technique that can cover a variety of different nonlinear systems. According to Ljung [83], other active issues regard- ing nonlinear system identification are based on parameterizations of the nonlinear models of dynamic systems; stability of predictions and simulations for the nonlinear models; identifying whether a nonlinear system operates in a closed loop and find- ing effective data-based nonlinearity tests for dynamical systems [83]. There is also growing research interest on model reduction which aims to identify the simplest nonlinear models for a nonlinear system. The current technological infrastructure has provided the computing require- ments to handle a large volume and a variety of data formats with various data mining tools. This propels us into a new area for system identification on modelling complex systems. Some of the research in this area are the Just-in-Time models [29] and the Model-on-Demand concept [110]. As suggested by Ljung [83], Bayesian networks and sensor networks could also be applied in this area. Chapter 3
Linear System Identification
3.1 Introduction
Linear dynamic systems are a very important class of dynamic systems. Even though most dynamic systems are nonlinear, the linearization of those systems can give some information about a particular nonlinear system and also provide the starting point for system identification. Given its simplicity compared to the nonlinear system, several techniques proposed for system identification of nonlinear system are based on an extension of linear system identification techniques. System identification of linear systems can be considered as the most developed area in this field [6]. This chapter discussed several known techniques for linear system identification. One of the main aims in system identification is to predict the response or output of the systems. Based on the descriptions or prior information of the system, its responses are simulated given various types of input, force or disturbance. Various methods have been proposed for predicting the output, where most of the methods are based on model building techniques. Various model fitting techniques have been applied in system identification to extract information from the input and output data of the system. Model reduction, given its close relationship with model fitting, is also another core area in system identification. Model reduction is useful in optimizing the system model. Two tech- niques that are relevant to system identification are the expectation-maximization(EM) algorithm [33] and regularization techniques [55].
19 CHAPTER 3. LINEAR SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION 20
Another important technique discussed here is the least squares method, which is well studied in the area of mathematical statistics, time series analysis and econo- metrics. It was first introduced and published by Legendre [76]. It is one of the earliest and simplest techniques for system identification used to find the relationship between the input and output data measured from a linear system. Time series analysis for system identification is primarily concerned with ob- taining the mathematical model from or for time series data. The introduction of autoregressive and moving average models in 1920s by Udny Yule and the develop- ment of the theory of stationary processes in 1930s to 1940s have been the important part in the new era of modern time series analysis [32]. A more formal approach to autoregression (AR) and the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) was presented in 1951 by Peter Whitle [132], and later were popularized by George E. P. Box and Gwilym Jenkins in their book [20]. This seminal book also details the importance on system identification. The details include models that have since gained their reputations in the identification of SISO systems. These are the AR and ARMA models together with the autoregressive model with exogenous inputs (ARX) model and autoregressive moving average model with exogenous inputs (ARMAX) model. Yet another technique discussed here is the Kalman filter technique. In statistical forecasting, the Kalman filter is similar to the least squares method of forecasting, since the idea of the Kalman filter is based on the recursive least squares filter. The recursive least squares (RLS) filter, which was developed by Plackett [104], proposed a technique to find the filter coefficients for minimizing a weighted linear least squares cost function. Even though it is fast to converge, it is computationally costly. The difference between the Kalman filter with the least squares method is that the Kalman filter relaxes the assumption that the model coefficients have to be stationary, hence making it preferred for nonstationary linear models [92]. The Kalman filter was named after Rudolf Emil Kalman, who is the primary de- veloper of this digital technique [65, 49]. This technique has been applied in many areas, with the first application by Stanley F. Schmiidt at the National Aeronau- tics and Space Administration (NASA) to solve trajectory estimation and control problems for the Apollo program [89, 49]. Other applications include time series CHAPTER 3. LINEAR SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION 21 analysis [92], economy [54], navigation and tracking [51], system control [114] and image processing [108]. Filtering typically assumes that the parameters of a dynamic system are known and aims to estimate the state from current and past observations. Producing the predictions based on a filtering technique is typically one or two steps ahead, and is really useful for on-line estimation. For system identification of a linear system, the Kalman filter can be used to estimate the states of the system, such as, its displace- ment (response, location or output), velocity or acceleration. The Kalman filter has also been used for parameter estimation, especially for time-varying parameters which are practical for the on-line identification of a system. The final method discussed here is the spectral analysis method. The other tech- niques introduced before are time domain techniques. However, the spectral analysis method is a frequency domain technique. In this method, the signal, which is in time domain is transformed into its spectrum, which is the frequency composition of the signal. For example, in optics, there are frequencies associated with the range of colours which we see in a rainbow. There are also other frequency ranges in the electromagnetic radiation spectrum which are not visible to us such as x-rays and gamma-rays. Spectral analysis is important since all living things, structures and mechanical systems are sensitive to the frequency of any input signal. For example, exposure to high frequency electromagnetic radiation can harm living things, especially humans. Humans and animals are also sensitive to light and sound signals. Structures such as towers or bridges can be sensitive to certain vibration frequencies, which may affect their structural integrity. For example, the Millenium Bridge and the Tacoma Narrows Bridge in general have nonlinear mechanisms [43]. The Millenium Bridge was closed for modification on the day it was opened due to ”synchronous lateral excitation”. The Tacoma Narrow Bridge collapsed four months after construction due to ”aeroelastic flutter” caused by a 42 mph side wind causing resonance in a swaying motion. This is also why the Roman soldiers used to break step to cross bridges, presumably because of the resonance problems which can collapsing bridges. A sign on the Albert Bridge in London dating from 1873 warns marching soldiers CHAPTER 3. LINEAR SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION 22 to break step while crossing. Fourier analysis, also known as Harmonic analysis, was named after Jean Bap- tiste Joseph Fourier. Some notable researchers in the early stages of the introduction of harmonic analysis are Leonhard Euler (trigonometric series), Daniel Bernoulli, Jean Le Rond d’Alambert (series in cosine functions), Joseph-Louis Lagrange (non- periodic function) and Marc Antoine Parseval des Chenes (Parseval theorem). The introduction of the periodogram, which gives an estimate of the spectral density of a signal (George Stokes and Arthur Schuster in the end of 19th century) has been a major milestone in time series analysis and Fourier analysis. In the 1940s and 1950s, the theory of nonparametric estimation of spectral densities was developed, where the statistical properties of the periodogram were derived and the first smoothed spectral estimator was proposed by P.J. Daniell. Other contributors in the development of spectral estimators are Ulf Grenander, Murray Rosenblatt, Ralph Beebe Blackman, John Wilder Tukey and Edward James Hannan [48, 18, 52]. Spectral analysis has been widely applied to linear dynamical systems but most dynamical systems as already stated are actually nonlinear. For mathematical con- venience, many researchers make an assumption that the system is linear since most techniques are based on linear systems and methods for linear systems work rea- sonably well for nonlinear systems. In recent years, some researchers have tried to extend the theory to a much more general situation such as that given by the evolutionary spectra based approach, which works for linear and some nonlinear dynamical system [106].
3.2 Discrete Time Simulation
The first technique discussed here is discrete time simulation, which will be used for predicting the response of the system. Data from the system, such as the input and the output data or signals, is considered as one of the information of the system. From the measured input and output signals of a system, the parameters of the system model can be estimated, which provide the knowledge on the model struc- ture. However, those data is not always available, hence simulation can be used in CHAPTER 3. LINEAR SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION 23 providing it. In the previous chapter, we discussed the dynamic model of a SDOF linear system, which can be written as a second order differential equation,
2 y¨t + 2ζωny˙t + ωnyt = xt. (3.2.1)
An estimation of the response for this differential equation model can be achieved by using finite difference methods. There are three types of finite difference that are commonly used, forward, backward and central difference.
Let us denote function f at point ti by fi. By using the forward difference, the
first forward difference of function fi is
∆fi = fi+1 − fi, (3.2.2) and the kth forward difference can be written in the form
k k−1 k−1 ∆ fi = ∆ fi+1 − ∆ fi. (3.2.3)
The first derivative of function f at point t can be written as f (t + h) − f (t) f 0(t) = lim . (3.2.4) h→0 h
If we let h be the interval between ti and ti+1, which is fixed and nonzero, the first derivative can be approximated by f (t + h) − f (t) f (t ) − f (t ) = i+1 i h ti+1 − ti ∆f = i . (3.2.5) h Hence, the approximation to the first derivative by the forward difference can be written ∆f f 0(t ) ≈ i , (3.2.6) i h th where h = ti+1 − ti is the sampling interval. For the k derivative, we have ∆kf f (k)(t ) ≈ i . (3.2.7) i hk Similarly, the first backward difference is given as
∇fi = fi − fi−1, (3.2.8) CHAPTER 3. LINEAR SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION 24 and the kth backward difference as
k k−1 k−1 ∇ fi = ∇ fi − ∇ fi−1. (3.2.9)
From this, the approximation to the first derivative using the backward difference is given by ∇f f 0(t ) ≈ i , (3.2.10) i h and the kth derivative is ∇kf f (k)(t ) ≈ i . (3.2.11) i hk Finally, the first central difference is given as
δfi = f 1 − f 1 , (3.2.12) i+ 2 i− 2 and the kth central difference is
k k−1 k−1 δ fi = δ f 1 − δ f 1 . (3.2.13) i+ 2 i− 2
Hence, the approximation to the first derivative by the central difference is given by δf f 0(t ) ≈ i , (3.2.14) i h while the kth derivative is δkf f (k)(t ) ≈ i . (3.2.15) i hk It has been shown in many studies that the central difference approximation of derivatives is better than the forward and backward difference, for example, in terms of its order of accuracy [88]. By using the central difference, the approximation of the first derivative in Eqn. 3.2.1 can be given in the form y − y y˙ ≈ t+1 t−1 , (3.2.16) t 2∆ and the second derivative by y − 2y + y y¨ ≈ t+1 t t−1 , (3.2.17) t ∆2 where ∆ is the sampling interval. By substituting these approximations of the first and second derivative into Eqn. 3.2.1, we can estimate the response at time t given by 2 2 2 ∆ 2 − ∆ ωn ζωn∆ − 1 yt = xt−1 + yt−1 + yt−2. (3.2.18) 1 + ζωn∆ 1 + ζωn∆ 1 + ζωn∆ CHAPTER 3. LINEAR SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION 25
3.3 Least Squares Method
Given that the input and the output signals of the system is known, a technique known as the least squares method can be used to estimate the discretized impulse response, hi. For a single-input single-output (SISO) linear dynamic system, the relation between the input and output signals can be defined as
yt = h0ut + h1ut−1 + ... + hnut−n + t , (3.3.1)
where t = n − 1,...,N and t is discrete white noise (from Eqn. 2.2.8). In matrix form, Eqn. (3.3.1) can be written
Y = h · U + , (3.3.2) where yt h0 yt−1 h1 Y| = , h| = , . . . . yt−N+n hn . ut ut−1 ··· ut−N+n t ut−1 ut−2 ··· ut−N+n−1 t−1 U| = and | = . . . .. . . . . . . . ut−n ut−n−1 ··· ut−N t−N+n
By using the least squares method, the impulse response, hi, can be estimated by
T T−1 hb = Y · U · U · U . (3.3.3)
Another model known as the autoregressive with external input (ARX) model is given by
yt = a1yt−1 + a2yt−2 + ... + apyt−p + b1ut−1 + ... + bnut−n + vt, (3.3.4)
where yt and ut is the output and input signals, respectively, and vt is the white noise. The ARX model can also be written as
A(z)yt = B(z)ut + vt, (3.3.5) CHAPTER 3. LINEAR SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION 26 where
−1 −2 −p A(z) = 1 + a1z + a2z + ... + apz ,
−1 −2 −3 −n B(z) = b1z + b2z + b3z + ... + bnz .
are the polynomials in the shift operator, z−1, for example
−1 z yt = yt−1, (3.3.6)
[6, 1]. A more general model, which considers additional filtering on the noise, is known as the autoregressive moving-average with external input (ARMAX) model. For the
ARMAX model, the input, ut, and output, yt, relationship for a linear system are given as
yt = xt + wt (3.3.7)
xt = G(z)ut (3.3.8)
wt = N(z)vt (3.3.9) where vt is white noise. Given here the transfer functions, B(z) G(z) = (3.3.10) A(z) D(z) N(z) = (3.3.11) A(z) where
−1 −2 −nd D(z) = 1 + d1z + d2z + ... + dnd z .
Hence the linear ARMAX model can be written as
A(z)yt = B(z)ut + D(z)vt (3.3.12)
This can be rewritten as
yt = − a1yt−1 − a2yt−2 − ... − anyt−n (3.3.13)
+ b1ut−1 + b2ut−2 + ... + bnut−n
+ dt + d1vt−1 + d2vt−2 + ... + dnvt−n CHAPTER 3. LINEAR SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION 27
[14]. The ordinary least squares method can be used to estimate the parameters for ARX model given that the noise is zero-mean white noise. Meanwhile, for the ARMAX model, iterative method such as the extended least squares (ELS) have to be used to estimate those parameters.
3.4 Kalman Filter
The Kalman filter is an algorithm for estimating the states of a system, such as the system’s position or velocity, from the observations data. It does supports estimations of past, present, and future state’s of the system. It also can be used even when the precise nature of the modeled system is unknown [131]. The Kalman filter does work given the variance-covariance matrices of random disturbance and noise corrupting the observations. Because the state can be defined to include parameter of the system, the Kalman filter can be used for system identification. The Kalman filter requires the dynamic system to be written in state space form. From the second order differential equation of the linear dynamic system as in Eqn. 3.2.1, let the response displacement be y = x1, the response velocity be y˙ = x2 and the input/force be x = u. Hence Eqn. 3.2.1 can be rewritten as a set of two first order differential equations
x˙ 1 = x2
2 x˙ 2 = −2ζωnx2 − ωnx1 + ut (3.4.1) and the output will be
y = x1. (3.4.2)
This is the standard form required for many software packages such as MATLAB and R for simulation. The state space form of a linear dynamic system as in Eqn. 3.2.1 can then be written as
x˙ = Ax + Bu, (3.4.3)
y = Cx + Du, (3.4.4) CHAPTER 3. LINEAR SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION 28 where Eqn. 3.4.3 is known as the dynamic equation and Eqn. 3.4.4 as the measure- ment equation. By substituting Eqn. 3.4.1 and 3.4.2, the state space form can be rewritten as x˙ 1 0 1 x1 0 = + u, (3.4.5) 2 x˙ 2 −ωn −2ζωn x2 1 h i x1 y = 1 0 + [0] u. (3.4.6) x2 Given that there is noise in the dynamic process and observation process, the state space model for the Kalman filter will be written as
x˙ = Ax + Bu + w, (3.4.7)
y = Cx + Du + v, (3.4.8) where w ∼ N(0, Q) is the process noise and v ∼ N(0, R) is the observation noise. Both noise processes are assumed to be zero-mean white Gaussian noise with co- variance Q and R, respectively. We will use the discrete Kalman filter so that
xk+1 = Akxk + Buk + wk, (3.4.9)
yk = Cxk + Duk + vk, (3.4.10) where k is the time step. The Kalman filter algorithm consists of time update and measurement update equations. The time update equation predicts the (k + 1)th states and error covari- ance while the measurement update equation corrects the priori estimate from the time update equation to obtain an improved posteriori estimate [131]. The time update equations are given by
− xˆk+1 = Akxˆk + Buk, (3.4.11)
− | Pk+1 = AkPkAk + Qk, (3.4.12) while the measurement update equations consist of
− | − | −1 Kk = Pk Ck CkPk Ck + Rk , (3.4.13) − − xˆk = xˆk + Kk yk − Ckxˆk , (3.4.14)
− Pk = (I − KkCk) Pk , (3.4.15) CHAPTER 3. LINEAR SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION 29
where Kk is the Kalman gain matrix and I is the identity matrix. This algorithm begins with the measurement update, where we need to specify the initial estimates − − for the state, xˆk , and the error covariance, Pk . Next, both will be projected by the time update equations by using the updated state and error covariance. The projected state and covariance will then be used for the next step of the measurement update process.
3.5 Spectral Analysis
A time series which is in the time-domain can be described in terms of the spectrum which is in the frequency-domain by using a Fourier analysis. The representation of the data in terms of frequency provides some additional information for understand- ing the systems. This spectral transform could also expose some hidden information about the process of the system by looking at the signal from a different perspective. The Fourier transform uses sines and cosines as their basis functions are localized in frequency. Fourier analysis is usually used for stationary random processes where all the spectral components exist all the time, since the statistical properties of a stationary random process do not change over time. Therefore, there is no need to consider spectra which exist at a specific time. However, many processes are better modelled as nonstationary. One approach is by transforming the nonstationary process into a stationary process, for example by fitting a trend, but some nonstationary processes are too complex and this technique may be unable to solve these problems. In solving this, Dennis Gabor in 1946 introduced the Short Time Fourier Transform (STFT) to deal with nonstationary processes. Usually, a sufficient window or duration of data which is stationary is used for the analysis. However, there is a problem on how to determine the window size for the transform and it may still not replicate the real process since the process is assumed to be stationary while it is actually nonstationary. CHAPTER 3. LINEAR SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION 30
3.5.1 Fourier Transform
For a signal xt that is sampled at equal time intervals, {xt : t = ..., −1, 0, 1,...}, the discrete Fourier transform (DFT) is
∞ X −iωt X (ω) = xte , −π ≤ ω ≤ π (3.5.1) t=−∞ and the inverse Fourier transform is
Z π 1 iωt xt = X (ω) e dω, (3.5.2) 2π −π P∞ with the condition that the Fourier transform exist only if t=−∞ |xt| < ∞. Parse- val’s theorem gives us that Z X 2 2 xt = 2π X (ω) dω, (3.5.3)
R ∞ 2 where −∞ xt dt is the total variability of the signal, which physically can be consid- ered as the energy. Meanwhile, the spectral density of the process can be also calculated by the discrete Fourier transform of the autocovariance function of the signal, γ (k), which is defined as γ (τ) = E [(x (t) − µ)(x (t + τ) − µ)].
∞ 1 X Γ(ω) = γ (k) e−iωk , −π ≤ ω ≤ π. (3.5.4) 2π k=−∞
As before, the DFT is only defined if P |γ (k)| < ∞. This condition is only satisfied for a stationary process. The inverse Fourier transform is
Z π γ (k) = Γ(ω) eiωkdω. (3.5.5) −π If we let k = 0, then Z π γ (0) = Γ(ω) dω = σ2, (3.5.6) −π which means that the area under the spectrum equals the variance of the process. Negative frequencies are physically equivalent to the positive frequencies. Thus we can work with the one-sided spectrum, Γ (ω), where 0 ≤ ω ≤ π, which is defined as twice the positive frequency. CHAPTER 3. LINEAR SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION 31
For a continuous random process, {xt : −∞ < t < ∞}, the spectrum is 1 Z ∞ Γ(ω) = γ (τ) e−iωτ dτ , −π < ω < π (3.5.7) 2π −∞ and the inverse transform is Z ∞ γ (τ) = Γ(ω) eiωτ dω. (3.5.8) −∞ The cross-spectrum can be calculated by ∞ X −iωτ Γxy (ω) = γxy (τ) e , (3.5.9) τ=−∞ or for a continuous process as Z ∞ −iωτ Γxy (ω) = γxy (τ) e dτ, (3.5.10) −∞ where γxy (τ) = E [(xt − µx)(yt+τ − µy)] is the cross-covariance function of the pro- cess.
3.5.2 Response amplitude operator
A linear dynamical system can be characterized by its gain and phase shift to a disturbance at specific frequencies. For many applications, the gain is the main interest, where it also known as the response amplitude operator (RAO). If the spectrum of the disturbance and the RAO is known, then the spectrum for the output can be calculated. This is important in investigating the response of a ship to sea states [91], and also can be applied for the response of some land based vehicles such as a car on dirt road or an aircraft on a runway. Also, by using the spectrum of the input and the output, the RAO can be estimated. Meanwhile, a sudden change in the spectrum of noise from a machine can be an early warning of a defect. This analysis, which is called the signature analysis, can prevent catastrophic failure [56]. The linear system can be illustrated in the frequency domain such as Fig. 3.5.1, where U (ω), Y (ω) and H (ω) are the Fourier transforms of u (t), y (t) and h (t) respectively. H (ω) is called the frequency response function and it only exists if the R ∞ linear system is stable, so that −∞ |h (τ)| dτ < ∞. By the convolution theorem, it is shown that Y (ω) = H (ω) U (ω) , (3.5.11) CHAPTER 3. LINEAR SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION 32
Figure 3.5.1: Linear system in frequency domain which is only true for linear systems. Therefore, the cross-spectrum can be written as
Γuy (ω) = H (ω)Γuu (ω) . (3.5.12)
Spectra can also be described using the relation,
∗ Γyy (ω) = H (ω) H (ω)Γuu (ω)
2 = |H (ω)| Γuu (ω) , (3.5.13) where Γuu is the energy spectrum and Γyy is the response spectrum obtained from the discrete Fourier transform of the input autocovariance γuu (τ), and response autocovariance γyy (τ) respectively. Let the input signal be given by
iωt ut = Ue , (3.5.14) where U is a real number representing the amplitude of the input 1. Similarly, let the response be given by
i(ωt+φ) yt = Y e , (3.5.15) where Y is a real number representing the amplitude of the response and φ is the phase shift given by the linear system. By substituting Eqn. 3.5.14 and 3.5.15 into the second order differential equation of the linear dynamical system Eqn. 3.2.1, we see that
2 i(ωt+φ) i(ωt+φ) 2 i(ωt+φ) i(ωt) −ω Y e + i2ζωnY ωe + ωnY e = Ue . (3.5.16)
Eqn. (3.5.16) leads to Y e−iφ = 2 2 , (3.5.17) U ωn − ω + i2ζωnω
1 In the context of spectral analysis, it is common to use ut for measured input, instead of xt. CHAPTER 3. LINEAR SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION 33 and the RAO or gain is given by
−iφ e G(ω) = 2 2 ωn − ω + i2ζωnω
1 = q . (3.5.18) 2 2 2 2 2 2 (ωn − ω ) + 4ζ ωnω The maximum value for the RAO is 2p 2 Gmax = 1/ 2ζωn 1 − ζ , (3.5.19)
p 2 2 when the frequency is equal to ωn (1 − 2ζ ). Furthermore, the phase shift is −1 2ζωnω φ = tan − 2 2 . (3.5.20) ωn − ω
For a linear system with single input ut and single response yt, the RAO can be estimated by r Cyy Gc2 (ω) = , (3.5.21) Cuu where Cuu and Cyy are the sample spectra of the input and response respectively. However, this estimator is sensitive to noise. An alternative estimator, which is unaffected by noise on the response, is the ratio of the cross-spectrum of the input and the response to the spectrum of the input that is,
|Cuy| Gc1 (ω) = , (3.5.22) Cuu where Cuy is the sample cross-spectrum of the input and response. The cross- spectrum is the Fourier Transform of the cross-covariance function of the input and response time series (for example see [56]). Similarly, the estimator
Cyy Gc3 (ω) = , (3.5.23) |Cyu| is unaffected by noise on the input [13]. A related statistic is the coherence, defined as
2 2 |Cuy| Gc cohd (ω) = = 1 . (3.5.24) CuuCyy 2 Gc2 The coherence can be thought of as the square of the correlation coefficient between the input and response over frequency, and its value is therefore between 0 and 1. It CHAPTER 3. LINEAR SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION 34 can be used to detect noise on the signals, compensated delays which are a sign of nonlinearity, and leakage which is usually caused by insufficient time series length.
If there is noise on both the input and the response, one strategy is to use Gc2, after making an allowance for the noise component in the computed Cuu and Cyy. The allowance considered here is to assume the high frequency component of the computed Cuu and Cyy is due to noise, and that the noise is white and has a flat spectrum. Computationally, this modification is implemented as a subtraction of
1 the average of the spectrum ordinates over the highest 20 of the frequency range from all the spectrum ordinates. This modification of Gc2 is denoted by s C− G (ω) = yy , (3.5.25) c4 − Cuu
− − where Cuu and Cyy are the modified spectrum estimates.
3.6 Summary
• All the techniques discussed here have been applied or used throughout this research. Even though most of the techniques are well known, it have to be discussed here as an introduction for reader who are new to this field.
• The discrete time simulation have mostly been used on linear and nonlinear dynamic system to simulate the data or signals of the systems. The simula- tion of the responses using the central difference is closer to the solution of the differential equation than that obtained using the forward or backward dif- ferences. The central difference is less sensitive to the sampling interval than the forward and backward differences. It is also have higher order of accuracy compared to the forward and backward differences.
• Even though the ordinary Kalman filter technique was not used in this re- search, but it was discussed here to provide the basis for the extension of Kalman filter, known as the extended Kalman filter and unscented Kalman filter, that will be discussed later. CHAPTER 3. LINEAR SYSTEM IDENTIFICATION 35
• For the response amplitude operator estimator, Gc1, is preferable if there is
noise on the response time series, while Gc3 is a preferred if there is noise on the input time series. If there is noise on both input and response signals, then
Gc4 can be used [9]. Chapter 4
Nonlinear system identification in time domain
4.1 Introduction
In the previous chapter, we discussed several time domain system identification techniques for linear dynamic systems. The implementation of the methods was in terms of the discrete time representation of the system through forward, backward and central differences. This technique is not only limited to identification of linear dynamic systems as it is applicable to weakly nonlinear oscillators. Therefore, in this chapter, we will first discuss the discrete time simulation of nonlinear dynamic system. The second technique that will be discussed here is the extension of the time series ARMAX model, known as the nonlinear autoregressive moving average model with external inputs (NARMAX). Some applications of this model are in forecasting [124, 42], system identification [34, 93, 57] and system control [112]. Previously, we have discussed the Kalman filter technique for system identifica- tion of linear systems. Various adaptations have been proposed for application of Kalman Filtering on nonlinear systems. One of the first was the extended Kalman Filter (EKF) which relied on a linearization about the current state values [81, 72]. EKF have been used for various applications including modelling of nonstation- ary time series [72], system identification [81], nonlinear structural identification
36 CHAPTER 4. NONLINEAR : TIME DOMAIN 37
[59, 79], economy [101] and many others. The linearization is a problem if the timestep intervals are big, which can cause instability to the linearized filter. Given the requirement of smaller timestep intervals, the computational effort for the cal- culations will be costly. The EKF also requires the derivation of Jacobian matrices which are quite complicated to derive [64]. An alternative approach to the EKF, known as the unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) has been found to give a better performance and is easier to implement [64, 63]. The UKF uses the same technique as the KF and also includes the unscented transformation which improves the convergence and accuracy of the estimation [63, 128]. The UKF is an algorithm for estimating the states of a nonlinear dynamic system forced by Gaussian white noise. The UKF tracks a small set of sample points, known as sigma points, through the nonlinear system and hence estimates the mean and covariance of the response. This enables an optimum averaging of one-step-ahead prediction and response to give the state estimator. Since the UKF does not require linearization, it is easier to use. There is no need to calculate the Jacobians or Hessians [64] which is more convenient compared to the EKF. The algorithm is easier to use and has a better performance in comparison to the EKF [63, 130], so it is generally preferable to the EKF.
4.2 Discrete Time Simulation
In this section, we will discuss the discrete time simulation of weakly nonlinear os- cillators and further the discussion in the previous chapter. We will present the application of the central difference equations technique on nonlinear dynamic sys- tems. Two nonlinear dynamic systems, the Duffing oscillator and the Van der Pol oscillator, have been chosen to show how this technique can be applied for identifi- cation of nonlinear dynamic systems. The simulated data presented in this section will be used later to assess system identification techniques that will be discussed later. CHAPTER 4. NONLINEAR : TIME DOMAIN 38 5 0 input −10 0 200 400 600 800 1000
Index
Figure 4.2.1: Samples of sinusoidal input time series for the Duffing oscillator
Example: Duffing oscillator
The Duffing nonlinear systems can be modelled as
2 my¨t + cy˙t + (k + k3yt )yt = ut. (4.2.1)
From the central differentiation method, Eqn. 4.2.1 can be rewritten as
y − 2y + y y − y m t+1 t t−1 + c t+1 t−1 + ky + k y3 = u . (4.2.2) ∆2 2∆ t 3 t t
By reducing each time index by one and rearranging the equation, the output at time t can be approximated by
4m − 2∆2k ∆c − 2m 2∆2k 2∆2 y = y + y − 3 y3 + u . (4.2.3) t 2m + ∆c t−1 2m + ∆c t−2 2m + ∆c t−1 2m + ∆c t−1
From Eqn. 4.2.1, let m = 1. Given that k > 0 and the amplitude of the response is minimal, then if k3 > 0, it will behave like a hardening spring and if k3 < 0, like a softening spring. For k < 0, it describes the dynamics of a point mass in a double well potential, which resembles a harmonic oscillator perturbed by a Gaussian noise. Consider a simple Duffing oscillator described by
3 y¨t +y ˙t + yt + k3yt = ut, (4.2.4)
Let the input be ut = 10 cos (0.1t/π), which is a sinusoidal signal with the amplitude 10 such as that shown in Fig. 4.2.1. The length of the samples are N = 1000 and the sampling interval is ∆ = 0.1 second. Three values for the nonlinear cubic stiffness parameter will be used to see how the Duffing oscilator responds. The values used are k3 = 0.02 for the weak nonlinear CHAPTER 4. NONLINEAR : TIME DOMAIN 39 4 5 0 0 response response −6 −10 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000
Index Index
(a) linear, k3 = 0 (b) nonlinear, k3 = 0.02 2 10 0 0 response response −2 −15 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000
Index Index
(c) nonlinear, k3 = 1 (d) nonlinear, k3 = −0.002
Figure 4.2.2: Response time series for Duffing oscillator with sinusoidal input
hardening spring case, k3 = 1 for the strong nonlinear hardening spring case and k3 = −0.002 for the softening spring case. The response for the linear system where k3 = 0, is also estimated to see how the Duffing oscillator differs from the linear oscillator. Fig. 4.2.2 shows the responses for the nonlinear Duffing oscillator and also for the linear system. There are no obvious lags for all the cases of Duffing oscillator compared to the linear case. The amplitude of the response does differ for
Duffing cases of k3 = 0.02 and 1, where it is less than the input and linear system response amplitude, while for k3 = −0.002, the response amplitude is greater than the others. This shows the characteristics of a hardening spring for k3 > 0 and a softening spring for k3 < 0. The nonlinearity effect also increases as the value of those nonlinear coefficients increases (for the hardening spring case).
Example: Van der Pol oscillator model
The Van der Pol system can be modelled as