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Downloading of Data Sets Used During Online Analysis Following Registra­ Tion Theory, Data and Analysis Data Resources for the Study of Politics in the Czech Republic Theory, Data and Analysis Data Resources for the Study of Politics in the Czech Republic Pat Lyons Institute of Sociology, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic Prague 2012 Reviewers: Mary A. Stegmaier, Ph.D. Mgr. Karel Kouba, M.A., Ph.D. Manuscript prepared for publication with the Institute of Sociology, Czech Academy of Sciences, Jilská 1, Prague, Czech Republic This monograph has been completed with funding from Czech Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports Grant (Reg. č. LA09010), see top of page 11 for details © Institute of Sociology, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague 2012. All rights reserved. ISBN 978-80-7330-219-1 [4] Content Abstract ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 9 Keywords ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 10 Acknowledgements �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 11 Acronyms and key terms ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 12 List of Figures ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 14 List of Tables �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 16 List of Explanatory Boxes ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 17 Introduction ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 19 Overview .......................................................................................................... 19 1. Theory, data and analysis ........................................................................... 20 2. A fundamental idea: public opinion .......................................................... 23 3. Why is political survey data important? .................................................... 28 4. Solutions to definitional problems? .......................................................... 32 5. Logic of this study ....................................................................................... 34 6. Roadmap of the book .................................................................................. 37 Chapter 1 Theories of Political Attitudes and Public Opinion ������������������������������������������ 43 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 43 1.1 Early conceptions of public opinion ................................................. 46 1.2 British liberal utilitarian theories ....................................................... 47 1.3 French and German perspectives ..................................................... 49 1.4 Nineteenth century liberal critiques .................................................. 51 1.5 Theoretical approaches in the early twentieth century ................... 55 1.6 Social psychological models ............................................................. 59 1.7 Early post-war critiques of mass surveying ..................................... 63 1.8 Contemporary critiques ..................................................................... 67 Conclusion ....................................................................................................... 70 Chapter 2 Origins and Nature of Political Attitude Surveying ����������������������������������������� 73 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 73 [5] Theory, Data and Analysis 2.1 What is a political attitude? ��������������������������������������������������������������� 74 2.2 Opinions, attitudes, beliefs and values ............................................. 77 2.3 Political neuroscience: visualising political attitudes ...................... 82 2.4 Public knowledge and attitude measurement ................................. 90 2.5 Revisionist approaches to public opinion, heuristics and cues ...... 93 Conclusion ..................................................................................................... 102 Chapter 3 Election Survey Research ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 107 Introduction ................................................................................................... 107 3.1 Chamber Elections (1990–2010) ...................................................... 110 3.2 Senate Elections (1996–2010) .......................................................... 115 3.3 European Elections (2004–2009) ..................................................... 116 3.4 Regional and Local Elections (2000–2010) ..................................... 117 3.5 Exit Poll Survey Data (1990–2010) .................................................. 118 3.6 Panel Survey Data on Political Topics ............................................ 123 3.7 Inter-election Political Opinion Polling ........................................... 124 3.8 Examples of inter-election dynamics .............................................. 127 3.9 Aggregate electoral data analysis research ................................... 135 Conclusion ..................................................................................................... 144 Chapter 4 Comparative Survey Research ������������������������������������������������������������������������� 147 Introduction ................................................................................................... 147 4.1 Public Support for the European Union ......................................... 150 4.2 New Democracy and New Europe Barometers (NDB/NEB) .......... 153 4.3 ISSP: Citizenship, Role of Government and National Identity Modules ........................................................ 155 4.4 European and World Values Surveys (EVS/WVS) ......................... 159 4.5 Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) .......................... 163 4.6 European Election Study (EES) ....................................................... 164 4.7 European Social Survey (ESS) ........................................................ 165 4.8 International Civic and Citizenship Education Study (ICCS) ......... 166 4.9 Other Comparative Political Surveys .............................................. 168 Conclusion ..................................................................................................... 175 [6] Content Chapter 5 Elite Survey Research ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 179 Introduction ................................................................................................... 179 5.1 Czechoslovak Opinion Makers Survey (1969) ................................ 181 5.2 Social Stratification in Eastern Europe after 1989 (1994) .............. 185 5.3 Cohesion and Stability of Czech Elites (2007) ................................ 186 5.4 Citizens and Elites in Europe, IntUne (2007–2010) ......................... 188 5.5 Parliamentary Surveys in the Czech Republic, 1993–2010 ............ 194 5.6 Case study: Determinants of Czech legislator’s Policy Preferences ......................................................... 199 5.7 Candidate Surveys ........................................................................... 202 5.8 Surveys of Party Members .............................................................. 204 Conclusion ..................................................................................................... 208 Chapter 6 Manifesto and Expert Data Research �������������������������������������������������������������� 211 Introduction ................................................................................................... 211 6.1 Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP) Data ................................... 213 6.2 Expert surveys .................................................................................. 222 Conclusion ..................................................................................................... 237 Chapter 7 Interpretation of Political Survey Data ������������������������������������������������������������ 243 Introduction ................................................................................................... 243 7.1 Validity and reliability of survey methods ...................................... 245 7.2 Pre-election surveys that went wrong and why? ........................... 249 7.3 Questionnaire effects ....................................................................... 257 7.4 Response option effects .................................................................. 260 Conclusion ..................................................................................................... 267 Chapter 8 Conceptualising Survey Data and Interpretation of Questionnaire Responses ����������������������������������������������������������������������������� 269 Introduction ................................................................................................... 269 8.1 Rival conceptions of survey response ............................................ 270 8.2 Measurement of party closeness in Europe ................................... 273 8.3 Belief sampling model and response option effects ..................... 276 [7] Theory,
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